Food Supply Prospects FOR THE SECOND HALF OF YEAR 2013 ______________________________________________________________________________ Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Sector (DRMFSS) Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) September, 2013 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia TABLE OF CONTENTS GLOSSARY OF LOCAL NAMES .................................................................. 1 ACRONYMS ............................................................................................. 2 EXCUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................. 3 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................... 7 REGIONAL SUMMARY OF FOOD SUPPLY PROSPECT ............................. 11 SOMALI .............................................................................................. 11 OROMIA ............................................................................................. 16 TIGRAY ............................................................................................... 22 AMHARA ............................................................................................ 25 AFAR .................................................................................................. 28 SNNP .................................................................................................. 32 Annex – 1: NEEDY POPULATION AND FOOD REQUIREMENT BY WOREDA (Second half of 2013) ............................................................................ 35 0 | P a g e GLOSSARY OF LOCAL NAMES Azemera Rains from Early March to Early June (Tigray) Belg Short rainy season from February/March to June/July (National) Birkads Rain water harvesting cemented reservoirs (Somali Region) Deyr Short rains from October to November (Somali Region) Gana Belg season during February to May ( (Borena and Guji zones) Gu Main rains from March to June ( Somali Region) Karan Rains from mid-July to September in the Northern zones of Somali region ( Jijiga and Shinile zones) Karma Main rains from July to September (Afar Region) Kebele The smallest administrative unit of Ethiopia Meher/Kiremt Main rains from June to September in crop dependent areas Quintal Local unit equivalent to 100 kilograms Sugum Short rains between March and April (Afar region) Wereda District, consisting of Kebele, which are the lowest administrative unit of the Government Zone Administrative unit (consisting of several weredas) 1 | P a g e ACRONYMS CRS/HC Catholic Relief Service CARE CARE Ethiopia DRMFSS Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Sector DPFSB Disaster Prevention and Food Security Bureau ERCS Ethiopian Red Cross Society FAO Food and Agriculture Organization GOAL Irish NGO IMC International Medical Corps LIU-ELA Livelihood Integration Unit - Enhanced Livelihood Application MoA Ministry of Agriculture MoH Ministry of Health MoWE Ministry of Water Resources and Energy NGOs Non- Governmental Organizations NMA National Meteorological Agency PSNP Productive Saftey Net Program Reference The year in which the baseline data for Household Economy Approach (HEA) Year analysis is collected RHB Regional Health Bureau REB Regional Education Bureau RWB Regional Water Bureau RPADB Regional Pastoral Develoment Bureau RMA Regional Meterological Agency SCI Save Children International SNNPR Southern Nations Nationalities And Peoples Region USAID United States Agency for International Development UN United Nations UN/OCHA United Nation office for coordination of Humanitarian Affairs UNICEF United Nation International Children Fund WFP World Food Program WHO World Health Organization WVI World Vision International ZDPPB Zonal Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Bureau ZHB Zonal Health Bureau 2 | P a g e EXCUTIVE SUMMARY SOMALI Generally the food security situation in 2013 for most parts of the Region remained stable or slightly improved due to the positive effects of the three consecutive rains (deyr and gu) on pasture and water availability that sustained good to average livestock conditions, improved terms of trade due to the declining trend in relief cereal prices and improved livestock prices. The prospects for stable or increased livestock prices are promising, whereas the current cereal price trend is highly fragile since it is mainly determined by food aid distribution. Milk production is currently increased in all zones, except Siti zone and other woredas that received below normal rainfall like Daloado, Dolobay, Barey, Fik, Salahad, Lagahida, Qubi, Hamero, Raso, west-Imey and East Imey woredas. However, in the coming months the purchasing power of the poor and middle households is expected to decline significantly due to low/little crop production in Siti zone and some pocket area of deyr received zones. Moreover, the food security situation is expected to deteriorate in areas that received below normal rainfall. These includes Siti zone, Fik, Hamero, Qubi, Salahad, Legahida, Mayumuloko of Nogob zone, Barey, Dolobay, Raso, and West Imey of Afder zone, Dolo Ado of Liban zone, Elweyn and East Imey woredas of Shabelle zone, pocket area of Galadi and Bokh woredas of Dollo zone. Siti Zone reported to be most affected by the performance of the rains. Improvements are expected if the performance of the next seasons is good; karan (July to Sept) for Siti and deyr (Oct-Dec2013) for other zones. Therefore it is anticipated that the food security status is likely to deteriorate in Siti Zone and some parts of the Region. Hence, 691,970 people will require emergency food assistance in the second half of 2013. OROMIA Except North Shewa, performance of 2013 belg season reported to be better than last year in all zones. However, 2013 belg production anticipated to reduce significantly from the plan as a 3 | P a g e result of weather related hazards, pest and diseases. Belg production in the lowlands of East and west Haraghe was highly affected by early withdrawal of the rains in the lowlands and disease infestation (early blight of potato, army worm & stalk borer on maize) in the mid and highlands. Similarly, significant crop losses in West Arsi and close to a total crop failure in many woredas of North Shewa zones were also reported as a result of much below normal belg rains. Though belg rains in most parts of Bale, Arsi, Borena and Guji zones were near normal to normal, early cessation of the rain in some woredas of Bale and army worm infestation in pocket areas of Arsi as well as East Hararghe zone anticipated to reduce production considerably. Moreover, some pocket areas of Borena received very little rains and this situation led to early livestock migration in the pastoral livelihood and significant crop losses in the agro-pastoral areas. On the other hand, the food security situation in Guji zone in the coming six months is anticipated to be stable due to the favorable weather condition which resulted in good crop performance, sufficient pasture and water for livestock except some pocket areas of Seba Boru, Goro Dola and Wadera woredas of the zone which requires close monitoring as the rain ceased early in these areas while most crops were at grain filling stage. The recurrent droughts in the past seasons also led some households for asset depletions. Malnutrition level reported increasing in some of the affected areas and high staple food prices are anticipated in the coming four months (July to October 2013). Therefore, the current food security situation in some belg benefiting areas expected to deteriorate further unless timely response is in place. As a result, a total of 897,332 people will require emergency food assistance in the second half of 2013. TIGRAY The 2013 belg rainfall has been much below normal and only 12 % of the belg crop was produced this year. In addition to the failure of belg crop production, other sources of income such as income from livestock and livestock products, wage labour, cactus and income from honey is significantly affected by the poor belg rain. Cactus one of the major component coping mechanism for wereda H/wajerat and Endamokeni was highly affected by pest. 4 | P a g e Moreover, the current high staple food price and relatively reduced livestock production will affect the livelihood of the very poor and poor households in the belg growing areas of Tigray. The performance of the 2013 major meher crops, maize and Sorghum, is not promising in most belg benefiting areas due to failure of azmera rainfall. This is expected to considerably affect the green harvest which breaks the hunger period around August. Therefore, taking in to account the poor performance of belg 2013 crop production, poor prospect of long cycle crops, lower livestock production and unfavorable market situation, the poor and very poor households in most belg benefiting areas are likely to require relief food assistance in the second half of 2013. The needy population is estimated at 321,470. AMHARA Belg producing woredas in the Region experienced poor belg rains in 2013. This situation resulted little or failure of production and deterioration of livestock physical condition affecting severely the food security situation in most belg benefiting areas. The little harvest expected in some woredas should have started in June but because of delayed planting the harvest period pushed into meher season, extending the lean season by about two months. Food prices have continued to rise and are likely to keep increasing until the next meher harvest that begins from October/November. In most belg benefiting areas,