SOMALI REGION: MULTI – AGENCY DEYR/KARAN 2012 SEASONAL ASSESSMENT REPORT REGION Somali Regional State November 24 – December 18, 2012 DATE ASSESSMENT STARTED & COMPLETED TEAM MEMBERS – Regional analysis and report NAME AGENCY Ahmed Abdirahman{Ali-eed} SCI Ahmed Mohamed FAO Adawe Warsame UNICEF Teyib Sheriff Nur FAO Mahado Kasim UNICEF Mohamed Mohamud WFP Name of the Agencies Participated Deyr 2012 Need Assessment Government Bureaus DRMFSS, DPPB,RWB,LCRDB,REB,RHB,PCDP UN – WFP,UNICEF,OCHA,FAO,WHO Organization INGO SCI,MC,ADRA,IRC,CHF,OXFAMGB,Intermon Oxfam, IR,SOS,MSFH,ACF LNGO HCS,OWDA,UNISOD,DAAD,ADHOC,SAAD,KRDA 1: BACKGROUND Somali Region is one of largest regions of Ethiopia. The region comprises of nine administrative zones which in terms of livelihoods are categorised into 17 livelihood zones. The climate is mostly arid/semi-arid in lowland areas and cooler/wetter in the higher areas. Annual rainfall ranges from 150 - ~600mm per year. The region can be divided into two broader rainfall regimes based on the seasons of the year: Siti and Fafan zones to the north, and the remaining seven zones to the south. The rainfall pattern for both is bimodal but the timings differ slightly. The southern seven zones (Nogob, Jarar, Korahe, Doollo, Shabelle, Afder, Liban and Harshin District of Fafan Zone) receive ‘Gu’ rains (main season) from mid April to end of June, and secondary rains known as ‘Deyr’ from early October to late December. In the north, Siti and Fafan zones excluding Harshin of Fafan zone receive ‘Dirra’ - Objectives of the assessment also known as ‘Gu’ rains from late March To evaluate the outcome of the Deyr/Karan to late May. Unlike the southern zones, season and its impact on livelihood security in the primary season for Jigjiga and Shinile agro-pastoral and pastoral areas. is ‘Karan’ – which usually falls between To assess the impact of a particular disaster, if late July and September. any, and evaluate the extent to which households can cope To identify areas where assistance is needed in Four generic livelihood types exist in the the current year due to acute problems and to region: pastoralism, agro-pastoralism, estimate the size of the population in need and farming (sedentary and riverine) and duration of assistance required urban. Pastoralism is the most Food and NFI prevalent, comprising about 60% of the region’s rural population. Agro-pastoralism comprises about 25% of the total rural population, and is a mixture of extensive livestock rearing and rain-fed crop production; some may be better described as pastoralists with opportunistic farming activities – as in Fik and some parts of Liban Zone. The remaining 15% of the rural population comprises sedentary (Jigjiga) and riverine (Shebelle and Dawa-Ganale) farmers. Both farming and agro-pastoral groups keep some livestock but farmers’ herds do not migrate and are sometimes hand-fed, only migrating with other groups if there is a severe drought (DPPC/SCUK, 2008). 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Usually the onset of Deyr rains was in October and reach peak in November. A majority area of the region has received Normal or Good Deyr rain this year. Deyr rain receiving areas of Elweyn, part of Danan and East emey districts of Shabelle zone, West emey, Raso, Dolo-bay and Barre districts of Afder zone and Dolo-ado district of Liban zone received below normal rain, but the current Deyr has normal in secession but different in the coverage , distribution and rainy days from place to place. In karan rain receiving areas of Siti zone early secession of the rain has observed. Due to good performance of water and pasture in most parts of the region, water pasture distance is highly decreased; the good physical condition of livestock in general has resulted in increasing livestock milk production and livestock market price. Regarding livestock health, no disease outbreaks were reported however, prevalence of endemic diseases was reported in some districts. And also camel abortion at the end of pregnancy one week before birth time observed in Shabelle, Liban and Afder zone districts. Generally, market prices for grain or staple cereals are declined in almost all part of the region and livestock price slightly improved due to its good physical body condition of the wet season prices for all species of animals are slightly increased, milk availability also increased all this factors together has been strengthening the purchasing power of the rural agro-pastoral and pastoral peoples of all livelihoods zone in the region. But for the coming months of a dry season from (January to March) late lactating animals will dry up and or decrease the yield. Furthermore; water pastures animal walking distance increase for the coming dry season ahead. In majority the cereals available in rural district markets are PSNP/Relief foods, No wide spread human disease outbreaks in the region, but common diseases such as Malaria, Diarrheal, upper respiratory tract and Malnutrition causes were reported from a majority district of all zones of the region. Being a region endemic for malaria; no malaria outbreak has been reported, however, increasing trends of malaria morbidities and acute respiratory infections (ARIs) have also been reported by the all assessed woredas: a total of 8,689 causes of Malaria with 25 deaths, A total of 1,647 cases of acute diarrheal diseases causes with 2 death, and 112 cases of Measles with 6 deaths were reported in the region during the period of July to October 2012. Therefore; due to the cumulative effects of these factors, the food security situation in Faafan, Siti, Doollo, Korahey, Shabelle, Liban, Afder, Jarar and Nogob zones particularly the rural poor households of all livelihood zones Deyr rainfall only cannot improve the food security situation unless poor households supplement by additional development, recovery and livelihood assets assistance. The food security situation is serious, accordingly a Total of --------------people will need food and non-food assistance for the coming six months starting from January-June 2013 3. Weather Conditions: Karan is the second rainy season which is expected to start from mid July and continues up to end of September in northern zones, where as Deyr starts in normal year early of October till mid of December in southern zones include Harshin district. This year both rainy seasons started on time or one week early at normal time in most of districts, exception of some southern districts where deyr started late. Earlier cessation of karan rains reported from Siti zone and deyr rains stopped one month earlier at normal time in all southern zones. Deyr /karan 2012 rains are considered to be normal resulting in regeneration of pasture, improved crop condition in some areas and increased water availability. End of October some areas of deyr receiving zones the rainfall was excessive or heavy and floods resulting in slight to significant damages to crops and livelihood assets in Korahey zones. Pasture, and water availability has improved and migration patterns are resuming to normal in most areas, But intensity and coverage of these rains vary from woreda to woreda or place to place. However, these rains have, generally, brought a much needed respite from the existing acute water shortage that has affected some pocket area of the Siti, Jarar, Liban, Shabelle and Korahey zones The following map shows the Performance of Deyr/ Karan Rains in this year: This year Deyr and Karan rainfall Performance Normal to near above normal rains reported from: Daratole, Danod, Warder, Shilabo,Dobeweyn, Guredamole, Charati, part of Elkare,Fefer,Muztahil,Kalafo,Filtu,Dekasuftu,Mubarik,Moyale,Daror,Aware,Dagahmadow,Yocalle,Goljano,Sagag,Duhun, Dembel,Shinile,Afdem,Babile, Gursum, Awbare, Jigjiga, and Miso districts. Area Received near normal to normal rains: Bokh, Galadi, Gurebaqaqsa, Shaykosh,Kabridaher,Danan,Gode,Adadley, West Imey, East Imey,Hargelle,Gunagado,Garbo Harshin, Erer and Ayisha districts Area Received below normal Rains: Doloado, Dolobay,Barey, Salahad,Lagehida, Muyumuloko,Fik, and Hamero districts 3.1 Karan Rainfall performance: The onset of this year’s Karan rains is on time in Siti {formerly Shinile} and Fafan {formerly Jigjiga} zones. However, the amount and distribution has been below normal in July. The end of July three to four sufficient rainfalls with good intensity reported in majority of districts in Siti zone, Tuliguled, Gursum, and Babile districts of Fafan zone The first dekad of August, majority of the districts in both zones were dry with small shower in some of the districts, except pocket areas of Dembel, Miso, Afdem, south of Erer, Awbare, Gursum and part of Tuliguled where two days sufficient rainfalls with good coverage reported. Karan rains performance improved in the third week of August, and four to five sufficient rains with good distribution reported in from Dembel, Miso, Afdem, Hadagalle, north of Shinile ,south of Erer, south of Ayisha districts of Siti zone, and Awbare, west part of Kabribayah, pocket area of Jigjiga, Gursum, Babile, and north of Harshin districts of Fafan zone. In the last days of August, sufficient rainfall reported in majority of Awbare, part of Kabribayah, Gursum, and Babile, part of Jigjiga, Tuliguled and Dembel districts. While majority of Siti zone remained dry, except pocket areas where erratic rainfall with poor distribution received. Karan performance improved after the first week of September in all districts of the Fafan zone, include Harshin district. Overall, the Karan rainfall of this year was better than last three rainy seasons and has been demonstrated significant improvement of pasture and water in both zones in this year. But Siti zone reported earlier cessation and negative affected the crop germination and resulting poor crop production in Shinile agro pastoral farmers The performance of the rainfall is considered as normal to near above normal in parts of Afdem, Hadagalle, South of Erer, Dembel, Gursum, Babile, Tuliguled and Awbare districts.