ETHIOPIA Food Security Update June 2009
Ethiopia continues to face high levels of food Figure 1. Current food security conditions, June 2009 insecurity. A total of 7.5 million chronically food insecure people receive assistance through employment in public works under the Productive Safety‐Net Program (PSNP). An additional 4.9 million people require emergency food assistance through June 2009. In addition, about 200,000 people have been displaced in the southern parts of the country due to clan conflict and are receiving humanitarian assistance. However, the official size of the food insecure population will most likely increase following poor performance of the belg/gu season this year. Actual figures will be provided by the ongoing belg/gu assessment missions.
Based on current needs, and not including possible increases due to the poor belg/gu season, there is Source: FEWS NET and WFP Ethiopia insufficient relief food in the country due to a For more information on FEWS NET’s Food Insecurity Severity Scale, please combination of resource shortfalls and a shortage of see: www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale trucks to transport food from the Djibouti port.
Cereal prices have remained relatively stable since the beginning of 2009 and showed a slight decline in May contrary to the seasonal pattern. For example, the nominal retail price of white maize, the cereal most widely consumed by the poor was six percent lower than that of last month and 14 percent less than May 2008. Compared to the 2004‐2008 average however, it is 72 percent higher. These high prices will continue to constrain food access for households that spend a significant proportion of their income on food.
Seasonal calendar and critical events
Source: FEWS NET Ethiopia
FEWS NET Ethiopia FEWS NET Washington P O Box 1014, Addis Ababa 1717 H St NW FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in Tel: 251-116-620217/18 Washington DC 20006 this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Fax: 251-116-620230 [email protected] Agency for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected]
www.fews.net/ethiopia
ETHIOPIA Food Security Update June 2009
Food security summary
Ethiopia continues to face high levels of food insecurity. A total of 7.5 million chronically food insecure people receive either direct support or assistance through employment in public works under the Productive Safety‐Net Program (PSNP). An additional 4.9 million people require emergency food assistance through June 2009 according to official government estimates. In addition, about 200,000 people that were displaced in the southern parts of the country due to clan conflict between the Somali and Oromo are receiving humanitarian assistance.
The belg seasonal assessment has begun in the belg‐crop producing parts of the country and in the pastoral region of Afar on the 8th of June. The seasonal assessment in the southern zones of Somali region and in the neighboring lowlands of Oromia began on the 20th of June. Given the poor performance of the belg/gu season, the official size of the food insecure population will most likely increase following these assessments. Based on current needs, and not including possible increases due to the poor belg/gu season, there is insufficient relief food in the country due to a combination of resource shortfalls and a shortage of trucks to transport food from the Djibouti port.
This lack of relief food is occurring as the country’s main hunger season (June‐September) begins. Given these immediate needs, the length of time which would be required for imports, and issues with transport from Djibouti, there is an urgent need to provide emergency food assistance either through direct contribution by the government or through borrowing from the Emergency Food Security Reserve Administration (EFSRA) against confirmed pledges from donors. The absence of such assistance could lead to high and extreme levels of food insecurity across wide areas of the country.
Areas in the northeastern highlands (i.e., some Figure 2. Belg grain production as a percentage of total grain woredas of North Wello, South Wello and North production (Belg crops defined as those harvested March-August) Shewa Zones) that are highly dependent on belg production (Figure 2) are reporting high and increasing levels of malnutrition following the failure of last year’s belg harvest and the poor performance of the belg season this year. Standard nutrition surveys are underway in some of these woredas, though results are not yet available. However, several OTP centers have been opened and rates of admission to these centers are increasing.
In some southern belg producing areas, including woredas of Hadiya, KT, Wolayita and Sidama, the current belg season began late and its performance has been erratic, leading to a significant reduction in yield (Figure 2), the delaying harvest, and extending the hunger period by at least two months until the meher season harvest begins in August/September. The Government has opened Outreach Therapeutic Note: Belg rains are known as gu rains in southern Somali region and as gana rains in Programs (OTPs) in each health post in the affected Oromia Source: Livelihoods Integration Unit, DMFSS, MOARD, Govt. of Ethiopia, areas of SNNPR. These centers are providing RUTF Graphics: FEWS NET for uncomplicated cases of severe acute malnutrition among children under five. Complicated cases are referred to the nearby stabilization centers. Although children under five are receiving this assistance, anecdotal evidence suggests that the underlying conditions are worse than last year. In addition, resources are not available to support malnourished pregnant and lactating women and the insufficiency of current general ration distribution has led to high levels of readmission to OTPs. There is a continued need to provide general food aid rations until the delayed belg harvest begins in August/September. The number of people in need of continued assistance will be determined by the assessment missions currently in the field.
The belg‐crop producing zones of Oromia region, including West Arsi, Arsi, Bale, East Hararghe, and West Hararghe zones, have also faced below average belg rains, and consequently, the belg‐crop performance is expected to be poor (Figure 4).
Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2
ETHIOPIA Food Security Update June 2009
This follows a failed belg harvest and a poor meher (June to September) harvest last year. Normally, green harvests from the belg season would be consumed between June and September, mitigating the meher season hunger period. This year however, due to the poor performance of the belg season, food security is expected to deteriorate more than normal during this period. Currently, food security in these areas is poor with reports of high levels of acute malnutrition and high numbers of admissions to OTPs and SCs, though according the Emergency Nutrition Coordination Unit (ENCU), in some of the woredas (e.g., Kuni, Kersa, Midega, Jarso, Gursum, Chinaksen, Meyu and Golo Oda of East Hararghe Zone and Darolebu of West Hararghe zone) admissions have stabilized following interventions by different NGOs. Continued assistance both in terms of supplementary/therapeutic food as well as general ration distributions are required, especially during the hunger period between June and September, to prevent further deterioration of food security situation. There is also a need to provide appropriate types of seed for the coming meher season so that food security will improve following the meher harvest that begins in October.
Following the poor performance of the recent sugum (March to May) rains, the pastoral region of Afar has now experienced three consecutive seasons of below average rainfall. Reports from the field indicate that shortages of pasture and water continue to be a serious problem. The satellite‐based rangeland Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (Figure 3) shows that conditions in most of the region are much below average. Livestock movement towards the Awash River, Awash National park, and neighboring regions of Tigray and Amhara has already been reported. Conflict over grazing land between the Afar and Oromo tribes was also reported in the Dire Harewa and Dire kebeles of Dewe Harewa woreda of Oromia zone in Amhara Region. Water trucking has continued in the chronically water deficit woredas of the region through sugum rainy season and into May. In addition to the poor performance consecutive past seasons in Afar region, the National Metrology Agency has forecast that the main rainy season, karma (July to September), will also be normal to below normal. There is a need to closely monitor the performance of the coming karma rains in order to provide any necessary assistance, both for the people of the region as well as for their livestock.
Performance of the gu (April to June) rains in the southern zones of Somali region has been generally below average, though with significant variations depending on location. Performance of the rains was particularly poor in Warder, Gode, Afder, and parts of Liben zones according to Somali Regional State Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Bureau’s Food Security Update of May 2009. Although the rains were generally below average, water points have been recharged sufficiently, except for the areas where the rains performed particularly poorly. In these areas, water shortages continue to be reported and some of these areas have requested for immediate water trucking.
Unusual movement of livestock is reported in areas that did not receive sufficient rains during the season. Given that the region has faced repeated failure of seasonal rains, early and extensive movement of livestock in these parts of the region during the current rainy season is an indication that the coming dry season will be particularly difficult. Food security will continue to rely on external assistance, which will be required throughout most of Somali Region for the foreseeable future.
Seasonal progress
The overall contribution of crops harvested during the belg season to total national annual cereal production is estimated to be 10 percent or less. However, long‐cycle meher crops, mainly maize and sorghum, which constitute about 50 percent of national cereal production, are planted during this season. Land preparation for some short cycle meher crops is also done using these rains. The belg rains replenish water and pasture, not only for pastoral and agro pastoral areas but also for all crop producing areas. Flowering and seed setting for coffee, which is the main national export commodity, also depends on the belg rains.
The belg rains typically extend from February to May across parts of the northeastern highlands of Amhara, southeastern Tigray, and parts of SNNP and Oromia Regions. These rains are extremely important for the food security of a significant proportion of the crop‐dependant population in these areas. These rains are also the main seasonal rains for pastoral and agropastoral populations of the south and southeastern parts of Ethiopia including South Omo zone of SNNPR, southern Somali Region and adjacent lowlands of Oromia including Borena, Guji and Bale zones. The belg rains are vital for cereal production among the agropastoral communities in these areas. Although these rains are secondary for the dominantly pastoral region of Afar, they are critical for pasture regeneration and water replenishment.
Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3
ETHIOPIA Food Security Update June 2009
Figure 3. Rangelands Water Requirement Normally, the belg rains begin around mid‐February in most parts Satisfaction Index, First 10 days of June 2009 of the country, extending into Somali region by April. However, the 2009 belg rains were four to six weeks late and when they did begin, rainfall totals and distribution were poor. According to the National Meteorology Agency (NMA), although better than last year, the performance of the rains has been below normal, despite the NMA’s positive forecast earlier this year.
Field reports also indicate that repeated dry spells at crucial crop growing stages have led to wilting of crops in most belg growing areas of Tigray, Amhara, Oromia, and SNNP Regions. For instance, reports from the belg‐producing parts of North and South Wello zones in Amhara region indicate a likely crop failure. It is also reported that land preparation for long cycle crops in the region has been adversely affected by a lack of moisture and that poor rains in Afar have led to shortage of pasture and water. Source: United States Geological Survey (USGS) Eros Data Center, based on satellite imagery Crops in East and West Hararghe Zones of Oromia are nearly flowering, yet moisture stress and lack of rains in the lowland parts of these zones is causing wilting. Similarly, belg agricultural activities have been significantly affected by intermittent dry spells in many other areas of Oromia including West Arsi, Arsi, North Shewa, and parts of Bale zones. The belg green harvest that normally fills food gaps during the main season hunger period will not be expected in these areas. On the other hand land preparation for short cycle meher crops is progressing where planting is normally done in June. On a positive note, crops in the mid and lowlands of Bale, Borena, and Guji zones are doing well owing to better genna (local name for the belg rains) rains.
The overall performance of belg rains in SNNPR has also been poor compared to normal years. Reports from recent field visits indicate that woredas in Hadiya, KT, Sidama, Gedeo, and Wolayita zones of the region received light to moderate rain during the last week of May while Guraghe, Silte, (these two are more meher dominant), South Omo and Amaro special Woreda did not receive rains during the reporting period. The projected Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) for the end of the belg season (Figure 4) shows below normal to far below normal crop conditions for maize in most belg producing parts of the country.
In Somali Region, this season’s rains (gu) normally start at the beginning of April and extend into May/early June. The performance of the current gu rains in the region can best be described as mixed. While the rains received in Shinile, Warder, Gode and most of Afder zones have been Figure 4. Projected end of season crop conditions based on below normal, Jijiga, Degahbour, Fik, Korahe, and Liban the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) - Belg season, zones received normal to near normal rains. The hagga 2009 dry season, which extends until the start of the deyr rains in October, is about to start across the region, except in Shinile and Jijiga which expect rains in July.
Markets and trade
Prices of cereals declined in May 2009 contrary to the seasonal pattern. Normally, cereal prices are at their lowest in January, as market supplies increase with the meher (main season) harvest. Prices tend to remain low until April, and increase beginning in May. (Figures 5 and 6) This year, however, cereal prices were much higher than both last year and the five‐year average at the beginning of the season. They remained relatively
Source: WFP Ethiopia
Famine Early Warning Systems Network 4
ETHIOPIA Food Security Update June 2009
stable through April and began to decline in May (Figure 6). For example, the retail price of white maize, the cereal consumed most widely by the poor, is 14 percent lower than in May 2008 and six percent lower than last month. Compared to the 2004‐2008 average however, it is 72 percent higher.
Similarly, the nominal retail prices of white maize declined by 6.3 percent in Bahir Dar and 9.9 percent in Mekelle compared to last month. These unusual declines in prices could be attributed to a) the inability of grain traders to secure credit from banks due to recent government regulations, leaving more supply in the markets b) Large quantities of wheat imported from abroad by the Ethiopian Grain Enterprise being sold to flour factories and other bidders that has reduced the demand from the usual domestic sources and c) restriction by the government on bulk purchase of cereals by NGOs from the local market. In addition, over the last two years the GoE has taken several measures to curb the rising prices, including a ban on exports of basic cereals such as maize, teff and wheat beginning 2006, distribution of wheat grain from March 2007 to the present at subsidized prices to about 800,000 poor households in 12 major urban centers including Dire Dawa, Bahir Dar and Addis Ababa, banning traders from hoarding stocks, lifting value added and turnover taxes on grain as of March 19, 2008, and increasing the reserve deposit of commercial banks through the National Bank of Ethiopia in an attempt to reduce the amount of money in circulation. Since July 2007, the GoE has also increased salaries for government employees by up to 37 percent and pension adjustments by up to 60 percent, to assist fixed‐income civil servants in coping with the situation. Despite these measures though, prices continued to rise until recently.
Figure 5. Nominal retail prices of white maize in Addis Figure 6. Nominal retail prices of white maize in Addis Ababa, Mekele and Bahir Dar, January 2007 to May 2009 Ababa compared to the 2004-08 monthly average and last year prices
700 600 500 g K 400 0 /1 300 B ET 200 100 0 N B R R Y N L G P T V C A E A P A U JU U SE C O E J F M A M J A O N D 2004‐2008 2008 2009
Source: data archives of FEWS NET Ethiopia, and Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE). Graphics by FEWS NET Ethiopia. Notes: (1) Prices are expressed in Ethiopian birr per quintal. (2) One quintal = 100 kg; 1 Ethiopian birr ≈ 11.17 US cents.
The recent decline in prices will contribute to improved food security of the urban and rural poor and the pastoral and agro pastoral populations who depend on the market to buy food, especially between June and September which is the hunger period throughout most of the country. There is a need to continue monitoring cereal prices especially during the hunger period, to see if these most recent efforts will continue to have the intended impact of reducing cereal prices.
Kiremt 2009 Outlook by the National Metrological Agency
Kiremt (June to September) is the main rainy season throughout Ethiopia, with the exception of the south and southeastern pastoral areas that do not receive rains during this season. The rains normally start in the southwest between March and May. In the northwest, the rains usually begin the first week of June, and in the northeast from the last week of June through mid‐July. About 90 to 95 percent of total annual crop production in Ethiopia is produced using the kiremt rains. Planting long cycle crops that contribute about 50 percent of the total annual production during the meher season is done using the belg rains in April/May. The kiremt rains are also critical for the regeneration of pasture and water in northen pastoral areas as well as the water levels of the major reservoirs.
Famine Early Warning Systems Network 5
ETHIOPIA Food Security Update June 2009
The National Meteorological Agency (NMA) released its 2009 Kiremt season climate outlook on May 22, 2009. According to the outlook, performance of the Kiremt season is expected to be normal to above normal in the central‐western and southwestern crop producing parts of the country while the northwestern, eastern, and central crop producing parts as well as the northeastern pastoral parts of the country are expected to receive normal to below normal rains (Figure 7), with a high probability of normal rain.
If the forecast holds, the performance of this year’s meher Figure 7. 2008 Meher Season (June – September) rainfall harvest is expected to be good in the central‐western and forecast southwestern crop producing parts of the country. In the northwestern and the eastern crop producing parts however, the performance of the meher crops could be below normal. If this occurs, this would be the second consecutive season of below‐normal production in the eastern meher cropping areas. The performance of the main season karma/karan rains in the pastoral region of Afar and the northern zones of Somali region are also expected to be normal to below normal. There is a need to closely monitor the performance of the June to September rains in the eastern crop producing parts of the country as well as the northeastern pastoral areas as most of these
areas are already highly food insecure. Source: National Meteorological Agency’s Climate Outlook Forum, Presentation, May 2009 Graphics: FEWS NET Ethiopia
Famine Early Warning Systems Network 6
ANNEX: Ethiopia Monthly Price Bulletin June 2009
Maize is the most widely consumed cereal by the rural poor. Sorghum is generally one of the cheapest cereals. Teff is also very important throughout the country. The most important markets for teff are the large cities including Addis Ababa, Bahir Dar, Makele, and Dire Dawa. Addis Abada is the capital city and Dire Dawa, Mekele, and Jijiga are major towns in the eastern, mainly food insecure, parts of the country. Bahir Dar is a major town in a surplus producing area. Jimma represents a generally food secure surplus area. Shashemene is an assembly, wholesale, and retail market and the main transshipment point for cereals from the south and southwest to the center and east. Sodo is an urban center located in the Wolayita zone, and is one of the most chronically food insecure parts of the region.
Monthly prices are supplied by FEWS NET enumerators, local government agencies, market information systems, UN agencies, NGOs, and other network and private sector partners.
Famine Early Warning Systems Network i
ANNEX: Ethiopia Monthly Price Bulletin June 2009
Famine Early Warning Systems Network ii
ANNEX: Ethiopia Monthly Price Bulletin June 2009
Famine Early Warning Systems Network iii