ETHIOPIA Food Security Outlook February through June 2012 Based on the Joint Government and Humanitarian Figure 1. Most-likely food security outcomes (February Partners’ Requirement Document released on the 12th of to March 2012) January, about 3.2 million people will require food assistance in the first half of 2012. The highest needs are identified in Somali and Oromia regions where 34 percent of the total population of each region is estimated to be in need. The net food requirement is reported to be around 158,000 metric tons (MT). Severe shortages of water and pasture are reported in parts of southern and southeastern pastoral and agro- pastoral areas as well as northeastern Afar and northern Somali regions. According to the National Metrological Agency, the February to May rains are expected to be below normal to near normal and begin erratically in these areas. For more information on FEWS NET’s Food Insecurity Severity Scale, please see: www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale Staple food prices are generally declining following the Source: FEWS NET Ethiopia and WFP recent 2011/12 Meher harvest though food prices rose 41 percent from January 2010 to January 2012. The Figure 2. Most-likely food security outcomes (April to highest food price inflation rates were reported in June 2012) Benishangul Gumuz (93 percent), Gambella (59 percent), and Southern Nations, Nationalities, and People’s (SNNP) (51 percent) regions. Current food security conditions and outcomes Food security in most parts of the country remained stable as the harvest peaked in the Meher cropping areas of the country. The Meher season provides about 90 percent of the national annual cereal production. Resource transfers through the PSNP and other humanitarian programs have also contributed to the declining prices in the currently affected and chronically food insecure areas in the southern and eastern half of Ethiopia including the southern and southeastern pastoral and agro pastoral areas which have Source: FEWS NET Ethiopia and WFP been affected by repeated droughts since 2008/09. However, No Acute Food Insecurity (IPC Phase 1) persists in the western surplus-producing areas. Poorer households in the remaining parts of the country are at Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of food insecurity as a result of cumulative effects of poor and irregular seasonal rains in 2010 and 2011. Localized areas in some woredas in the southern lowlands continued to face severe water and pasture shortage which resulted from localized poor performance of the October to December Deyr/Hageya rains in 2011 (Figure 1). The good 2011 Deyr/Hageya (October to December) rains have positively impacted food security in the formerly drought- affected- zones of southern Somali, the lowlands of Oromia (Borena, Guji, and Bale zones), and South Omo zone of SNNPR. The rains have sufficiently replenished water and improved the pasture conditions in most parts of the seven Deyr- receiving zones in southern Somali. These pastoral resources are expected to last until the next rains begin in April. FEWS NET Washington FEWS NET Ethiopia FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this 1717 H St NW Tel: 251 11 662 0216 publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency Washington DC 20006 [email protected] for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected] www.fews.net/ethiopia ETHIOPIA Food Security Outlook February through June 2012 However, severe water shortages are being reported in parts of the woredas which received limited or no rain during the last Deyr from October to December 2011 following the repeated rain failures of 2010 and 2011. These woredas are Guradamole in Afder zone, Shilabo in Korayhe zone, Geladi in Warder zone, Fik and Mayumuluk in Fik zone, and Dagahbour and Dagahamadow in Degahbour zone. Although livestock movements in search of water and pasture within the zones are normal in most of the woredas, migration started earlier than normal from the aforementioned woredas to areas where such resources are available. Early migrations and concentration of animals in woredas such as Sheykosh and Kabridahar of Korahye and Duhun of Fik zones are likely to cause early depletion of resources as the Jilal (December-March) dry season intensifies. Serious pasture shortages have been reported in Mustahil, Ferfer, and Kelafo of Gode zone due to the flooding of the Wabi Shabelle river in October 2011, which both destroyed pasture and affected the local crop harvests from December to January in the Shabelle Riverine Livelihood Zone. A poor crop harvest was also the case in Korahye Agropastoral Livelihood Zone due to inadequate rains and a soil moisture deficit during the Deyr season. Staple food prices are generally stable, but some areas are showing decreasing cereal prices due to the ongoing relief food distributions. However, the multi-agency seasonal assessment in November and December 2011 revealed that prices remained higher than prices over the last year. On the other hand, prices in Warder and Korhaye in the Lowland Hawd Pastoral Livelihood Zone are still increasing due to poor market supply of both local and imported foods. In January 2012, the sorghum price in Kebridehar market of Korahye zone was reported to be 90 percent higher than last January. Critical water problems were also reported in the lowland woredas of Rayitu, Sawena, Guradamole, Berbere, Legehida, Delomena, and Dawe Kchen woredas of Bale zone of Oromia. In Borena zone, despite the 2011 good Hageya rains, water is still scarce in Miyo, Dehas, Moyale, Dire, Dilo, and Arero as water points were flooded and covered with silt during the last Hageya from October to December 2011. Though the rains improved the availability of pasture in the zone, pasture availability in the mentioned woredas is unlikely to sustain livestock through the long dry season. The physical conditions of livestock are normal in most of these areas including lowlands of South Omo in SNNPR with stable and improved livestock prices comparing to recent months leading to temporary improvement in the terms of trade. However, there is growing concern in woredas reporting water problems. Availability of water and pasture in South Omo delayed the normal migration of livestock to dry grazing lands which typically starts in December to February. Crop harvest from recessional farming woredas has further improved food security in this particular zone. Thousands of poor and very poor households in these areas continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of food insecurity where relief interventions are ongoing in addition to PSNP. However, the food security situation in woredas with severe water and pasture shortages is a concern. Given the effects of the recent droughts, scarcity of water will have a significant impact on pastoral food security and livelihoods. Despite the below-normal Karma/Karran rains from mid-July to mid- Figure 3. Belg/Gu/Ganna/Sugum Season September season, the overall food security situation is stable in Afar (February to May) Climate Outlook and northern zones of Somali region due to improved access to food through relief transfers and the improved market availability of supplies from the Meher cropping areas. However, many woredas in these areas are facing critical water shortages both for human and livestock consumption. These include the chronically water deficient woredas of Kori, Elidaar, Bidu, and Erebti of Afar region, Harshin, Kabribayah, parts of JIjiga, Awbare, and Babile woredas of Jijiga zone, and Ayisha, parts of Afdem, Erer, Shinile, and Dambel woredas of Shinile zone in northern Somali region. Demand for water interventions will increase until the next Gu/Sugum rains begins around mid-March. Water trucking is ongoing in parts of Kori, Elidaar, Dubti, and Bidu woredas of Afar region. These areas are in the middle of their long dry season from mid- September to mid-March, and livestock body condition have deteriorated mainly in areas which received poor rains during the last Source: National Metrological Agency’s Climate Outlook Karma/Karran and which currently are facing poor water and pasture Forum, February 9, 2012 availability. Deterioration in livestock body condition is reported in most of these woredas, and unusual movements of livestock also observed in Shinile, Erer, Aysha, and Dembel of Shinile zone to other woredas within the zone where pasture and water availability is relatively better. Similarly, early livestock movements have also been Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 ETHIOPIA Food Security Outlook February through June 2012 reported to dry grazing lands in neighboring woredas and adjacent regions in Afar region. Livestock migration has been reported from Awura and Gulina woredas in Zone 4 of Afar region to Chifera woreda within the same region as well as to Kewet woreda of North Shewa zone in Amhara region. According to the latest regional food security update, admissions for severely malnourished children into TFPs have increased from 236 in September 2011 to about 2,000 in December in Afar region. Currently, poor households in Afar and northern Somali remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and still have high need for external assistance while those in woredas with critical water and pasture problems are now in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Following the 2011 Meher harvest from October to January, the food security situation in most parts of the eastern marginal Meher producing areas remains stable. However, there is concern of a possible deterioration from some parts of eastern, southern, and southeastern woredas including Alamata, Raya Azebo, Erob, Tankua-Abergele, Dega-Temben, Enderta, and Hawzen in Tigray region due to poor harvest during both the Belg and Meher seasons in 2011. Similarly, the below-normal harvests in the lowlands of Wag Himra zone of Sekota, Ziquala, Sahala, and Abergele woredas and some parts of North Gondar zone bordering the Tekeze basin has left many households with food gaps even in the immediate post-harvest period.