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Forest Conservation for Communities and Carbon: the Economics of Community Forest Management in The

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Forest Conservation for Communities and Carbon: the Economics of Community Forest Management in The Forest conservation for communities and carbon: the economics of community forest management in the Bale Mountains Eco-Region, Ethiopia Charlene Watson May 2013 Thesis submitted in fulfilment of the degree of Doctor of Philosophy London School of Economics and Political Science 1 Declaration of work This thesis is the result of my own work except where specifically indicated in the text and acknowledgements. The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without my prior written consent. Photos are the authors own, as are the figures generated. I warrant that this authorisation does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. May 2013 2 Abstract Forest conservation based on payments anchored to opportunity costs (OCs) is receiving increasing attention, including for international financial transfers for reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD+). REDD+ emerged as a payment for environmental service (PES) approach in which conditional payments are made for demonstrable greenhouse gas emission reductions against a business-as-usual baseline. Quantitative assessments of the OCs incurred by forest users of these reductions are lacking. Existing studies are coarse, obscure the heterogeneity of OCs and do not consider how OCs may change over time. An integrated assessment of OCs and carbon benefits under a proposed community forest management (CFM) intervention linked to REDD+ is undertaken in Ethiopia. The OCs of land for the intervention are estimated through household survey and market valuation. Scenarios explore how OCs are likely to change over the intervention given qualitative conservation goals and available land-use change information. The feasibility of OCs payment as a tool for REDD+ is assessed by combining cost with emission reductions estimates generated from direct tree measurements. Households’ environmental attitudes, perceptions and intention to cooperate with the intervention, estimated by a voluntary contribution to improve forest management, are then investigated. Mean OCs of forest conservation are US$334/ha, but highly heterogeneous. Plausible futures of agricultural improvement, forest product commercialisation, and degradation of land uses suggest total OCs could approach US$441 million over a 20-year project. Applying carbon stock estimates of 231tC/ha±52 in moist and 132tC/ha±73 in dry forest, REDD+ revenues may not meet annual cumulative OCs, although more nuanced conservation planning could reduce OCs. Despite 3 OCs all households intend to cooperate in the intervention, with mean contribution of US$11±4/year/household. The expected incomes of households under the Bale REDD+ Project intervention however, were high and expectation management is necessary. Recommendations are made for REDD+ intervention design in Ethiopia. 4 Acknowledgements Many people have been instrumental in the completion of this PhD and my thanks are extended to them all even if they are not mentioned by name here. I especially thank my supervisors Dr. Susana Mourato and Professor E.J. Milner-Gulland who have provided valuable feedback on this research. This study was also made possible by a scholarship from the Economic and Social Research Council (PTA- 031-2006-00338), Frankfurt Zoological Society, BERSMP and the British Embassy in Ethiopia. Thanks to the examiners for improving the quality of this thesis. I thank those in Ethiopia who made fieldwork such a pleasure. Karen Laurenson introduced me to the Bale Mountains but also gave me perspective. Alastair Nelson and Deborah Randall provided a warm welcome. Anne-Marie Stewart and Chris Gordon gave great company, and G&Ts, at the end of dusty bus rides. Dereje Tadesse, detailed local knowledge and thoughtful debate. Freya, Graham and Ness, Anouska and Thadaigh, and Flavie provided fires, food and conversation. The staff at BERSMP, particularly; Tsegaye, Ben, Luluu and Bereket, I thank for support and information. The Ethiopian authorities for allowing me to spend 18 months wandering the Ethiopian countryside talking to locals and measuring trees. Also my enumerators Kemal and Abubeker, and those who took the time out of their lives to answer my household survey that I hope this research benefits. I thank my colleagues at LSE for friendship, support and intellectual guidance and the Grantham Research Institute for hosting me. To my wider friends, thank you for fostering my enthusiasm and for your patience. CV has been a voice of calm, reason, warmth and advice that I would not want to be without. Lastly and importantly, I’d like to thank my family for their constant and unwavering support and love. 5 List of acronyms BAU Business-as-usual BERSMP Bale Eco-Region Sustainable Management Programme BME Bale Mountains Eco-Region BMNP Bale Mountains National Park CBOs Community based organisations CCBA Climate, Community and Biodiversity Alliance CDM Clean Development Mechanism CFM Community forest management dbh diameter at breast height ETB Ethiopian Birr EPRDF Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front ERPA Emissions Reductions Purchase Agreement FCFP Forest Carbon Partnership Facility GHG Greenhouse gases GIS Geographical Information System GTZ German Technical Corporation ha hectares hifp high-impact forest products HH household HWPs harvested wood products IPCC Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change lifp low impact forest products LULUCF Land use, land-use change and forestry masl metres above sea level MRV Monitoring, reporting and verification NGO Non-governmental organisation NTFP Non-timber forest products OCs Opportunity costs OFWE Oromia Forest and Wildlife Enterprise OLS Ordinary least squares OTC Over-the-counter PES Payments for environmental services REDD+ Reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation, forest conservation, sustainable management of forests and the enhancement of forest carbon stocks R-PP Readiness Preparation Proposal tCO2e tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change VCM Voluntary carbon market VCS Voluntary Carbon Standard WBISPP Woody Biomass Inventory and Strategic Planning Project WTP Willingness-to-pay 6 Table of contents Abstract ..............................................................................................................................................3 Acknowledgements .........................................................................................................................5 List of acronyms ...............................................................................................................................6 Table of contents ..............................................................................................................................7 List of tables ....................................................................................................................................10 List of figures ..................................................................................................................................12 Chapter 1: Introduction .................................................................................................................13 1.1. Background ..........................................................................................................................13 1.2. Research questions .............................................................................................................20 1.3. Thesis structure ...................................................................................................................21 Chapter 2: Literature Review .......................................................................................................24 2.1. Introduction .........................................................................................................................24 2.2. The carbon benefits of forest conservation: REDD+ revenues ..................................30 2.3. The opportunity costs of forest conservation ................................................................34 2.3.1. Forest income and the opportunity cost of forest conservation .......................................34 2.3.2. PES in practice ................................................................................................................38 2.4. REDD+ via CFM ..................................................................................................................41 2.4.1. Community forest management ......................................................................................41 2.4.2. Implementing REDD+ via CFM ....................................................................................43 2.4.3. Cooperation on a common pool resource .........................................................................46 2.5. Conclusion ...........................................................................................................................48 Chapter 3: Case study site .............................................................................................................50 3.1. Introduction ..........................................................................................................50 3.2. Forest Management in Ethiopia ........................................................................51 3.2.1. Ethiopia in context........................................................................................................51
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