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Oceanaire Systems Requirements Review REVISED with NEW SYSTEMS REQUIREMENTS REVIEW GREG FREEMAN ANDY GRIMES NICK GURTWOSKI MOTOHIDE HO VICKI HUFF POORVI KALARIA ROMAN MAIRE TARA PALMER SANJEEV RAMAIAH JACK YANG AAE 451 FEBRUARY 12, 2009 1 . TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary (Page 4) I. MISSION STATEMENT (Page 5) i. Major assumptions II. MARKET/CUSTOMERS (Page 6) i. Customers’ Needs and Benefits ii. Primary Customer iii. Market Size III. COMPETITORS (Page 8) i. Market Competition IV. CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS (Page 9) i. Representative city-pairs ii. Cost Predictions iii. Meeting Customer Needs iv. Payload/Passenger Capacity v. Cabin Layout vi. Design Mission Profile vii. Economic Mission Profile V. SYSTEM DESIGN REQUIREMENTS (Page 20) i. Customer Attributes ii. Quantifiable Characteristics iii. House of Quality iv. Target and threshold values v. Benchmarking vi. Technologies/advanced concepts 2 . VI. INITIAL SIZING (Page 25) i. Estimates for L/D ii. Empty weight fraction predictor VII. CONCLUSION (Page 31) i. Summary ii. Next Steps VIII. REFERENCES (Page 32) 3 . EXECUTIVE SUMMARY As aviation advances, the desire for an economic, affordable Supersonic Transport (SST) has increased rapidly. Since the Concorde, there have been no operable Supersonic Transports in the world. OceanAire intends to design the world’s next SST, called Sky, which will solve the technical challenges that have impeded the development of supersonic airliners for decades. As stated by NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate’s 2008-2009 University Competition, the technical challenges include supersonic cruise efficiency, low sonic boom, and high-lift for take-off and landing. Other design specifications decided upon were high cruise speed, long distance cruise, and reasonable passenger capacity, along with providing a luxurious flight. Sky will target first and business class customers as well as travelers who have the means and desire to reach their destination in a shorter amount of time. The demand for business class aircraft is growing and will increase dramatically by 2020. Sky intends to meet that demand and capture the expanding market. Daily overseas flights will connect major business cities around the world, allowing businesses and airlines to save both time and money. OceanAire proposes a Supersonic Transport to meet and exceed the requirements set forth by NASA, Lockheed and the future market. Through research on past and present concepts, and ideas recommended by Dan Raymer [15] , tools have been used to begin setting goals and benchmarks that Sky will adhere to. Sky has taken customer attributes into consideration and will meet specific requirements catering to those attributes. These specifications have led to initial estimates for a design that will reasonably meet the aforementioned goals. 4 . I. MISSION STATEMENT The two main mission objectives are to design an aircraft with supersonic capabilities that is able to link major city pairs, and to compete with other existing aircraft on the market. Building on the first mission statement, it is very imperative that the designed aircraft will be supersonic, flying at speeds of approximately Mach 1.6- 1.8. The aircraft is being designed as a supersonic airliner and will be used for civilian purposes, enabling transport of passengers and cargo between city pairs across the world. There are already quite a few aircraft concepts in the market catering to this aspect. Hence, the second mission statement is to design an efficient aircraft that can compete with the existing ones in the market and still remain profitable. Major Assumptions A few assumptions were made about supersonic flight while developing the mission statement. It was assumed that this aircraft will be designed and manufactured to have its first flight sometime in 2020 and to enter service by 2023. This assumption will give ample time to designers to investigate and incorporate new and effective technologies into design, and hence, come up with a competent and competitive aircraft. It was also assumed that the current regulations on flying supersonic over U.S. mainland would not change. The U.S. government presently prohibits supersonic flight over land. Since it is assumed that this will not change, risks will be reduced by designing an aircraft to fly supersonic only overseas. 5 . II. MARKET/CUSTOMERS Customer Needs and Benefits OceanAire’s Sky will hold 49 passengers in a luxurious and comfortable cabin. This aircraft will reduce travel times of subsonic transports by around half due to its supersonic cruise capabilities. Sky will operate internationally and will offer transpacific and transatlantic flights to passengers. Overall, Sky will fly more passengers farther and faster than any other subsonic and supersonic airliner. Primary Customer Specifically, this aircraft is designed to serve business travelers who wish to significantly decrease their travel time. Even though business travelers are the primary customer, the aircraft is also available to any traveler who has the desire and means to reach their destination faster. Due to Sky’s designed range capability of 5000 nmi, passengers will be able to not only fly faster but farther. The customer will be able to enjoy a luxurious flight with all the amenities available on current flights with the additional benefits of a faster trip time and more cabin space. Furthermore, OceanAire will offer even more benefits for its business and first-class passengers. OceanAire realizes that connectivity is a priority in this fast-paced business environment and will provide passengers access to the Internet and corporate internets, voice over Internet protocol (VOIP), e-mail, virtual private networks, fax services and video conferencing through Rockwell Collin’s eXchange service [6] . Furthermore, live satellite-television will provide up-to-date news, sports and weather. Market Size Sky will offer business and first-class seats with the majority being business-class. Richard Branson, the president and founder of Virgin Atlantic is quoted saying, “There clearly is a demand for a niche for an all-business-class offering.” Henry H. Harteveldt, a senior analyst at Forrester Research states that his research shows that 50 percent of business travelers are willing to pay an above-average price for a noticeably better quality travel time, and that only about a third describe themselves as loyal to a specific airline. Furthermore, as stated in the New York Times in July 2007, Eos, MAXjet, Silverjet, and l’Avion reported in 2007 that each filled 70% or more of their seats flying only transatlantic all business- class flights. Eos and MAXjet began flying in late 2005 and offer 48 and around 100 seats, respectively. Silverjet and l’Avion began flying in 2007 and offer 100 and 90 seats, respectively. As a result, an average of 59 seats were filled on these four airplanes in 2007 [13] . The Travel Insider stated in an Airline Review dated October 2006 that business class is the airlines’ largest source of income [19] . In 2008, the senior vice president for worldwide sales at United Airlines, Graham Atkinson, said that the 10 percent or so current passengers who fly in international business class on U.S. carriers generate about 35 percent of airline revenue [3] . The number of passengers that pay for business class and first class tickets range. The number also depends on the route and airline. The Travel Insider in 2006 reported that the number of first class passengers that pay for their ticket might be as low as 10% while other airlines estimate around 20%. Regardless, it can be shown from the statements made above that the business class remains the most profitable income for the airlines. Over the past 20 years, air travel has grown each year. This occurred despite two major world recessions, terrorist acts, the Asian financial crisis of 1997, the SARS outbreak in 2003 and two Gulf wars. As stated by Boeing, the average growth in airline passenger numbers between 2008-2027 will be 6 . around 4.0 percent each year [4] . According to Airbus, air traffic will double in the next fifteen years [7] . As stated in Embraer’s Market Analysis realesed in 2008, Asia Pacific world air travel demand will grow by 5% each year while North America and Europe will increase by 4% per year. This new growth in airline travel will result in new airplane deliveries. The following graph produced by a Boeing market forecast shows that a much larger demand will be made for single-aisle airplanes than any other type of aircraft (around 65% of the total new deliveries made between 2008 and 2027). As a result of Sky being a single- aisle aircraft, the demand will be maximized. Figure 1: Boeing Market Outlook’s New Airplane Deliveries for 2008-2027 [4] 7 . III. COMPETITORS Market Competition Sky’s first flight will be assumed to be in the year 2020 with full entry into service in 2023. Currently there are no supersonic aircraft in the market, but it can be assumed that this will not be the case in 2020. The following 4 aircraft will be assumed to be competing with Sky in the market of supersonic aircraft: Aerion Corporation’s Supersonic Business Jet (SBJ), Lockheed Martin’s Quiet Supersonic Transport (QSST), Dassault Aviation’s High Speed Aircraft (HISAC), and Sukhoi’s S-21. The following table displays some general specifications of Sky compared to its competition. Table 1: Market Analysis The highlighted green boxes in Table 1 indicate where the strengths in each category of the market lie. For instance, the largest cruise speed is Mach 1.8, which is offered by three supersonic aircraft: Lockheed Martin’s QSST, the HISAC and OceanAire’s Sky (hence, three green boxes). Another strength in the market is the capability of the aircraft to fly supersonically overland. Aerion’s SBJ, Lockheed Martin’s QSST and Dassault Aviation’s HISA are all designed to fly overland (no information was found for Sukhoi’s S-21).
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