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ISS Peace and Security Council Report, No 51 Peace and Security Issue 51, Council Report October 2013 Current members of the Peace and Security Council: Algeria, Angola, Cameroon, Congo, Côte d’Ivoire, Djibouti, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, the Gambia, Guinea, Lesotho, Mozambique, Nigeria, Tanzania and Uganda Peace and Security Council Protocol IN THIS ISSUE ‘The PSC shall encourage non-governmental organizations to participate actively in the efforts aimed at promoting peace, security and stability in Early warning issues for Africa. When required such organizations may be invited to address the 1 Peace and Security Council’ – Article 20 of the Protocol Relating to the October 2013 Establishment of the PSC of the African Union Early warning issues for October 2013 Country analysis: Egypt 2 During October, in the aftermath In the meantime, continuing of the terrorist atrocities in atrocities against civilians in the Nairobi that began on Central African Republic and an International Peace Day, there can uphill battle by aid agencies in be no guarantees that similar the country to address the health events will not again take place in needs of the general population Open page: Brussels New Africa. Boko Haram and Al-Qaeda require urgent African and in the Maghreb remain active in international responses. Deal Conference on 8 West Africa and the Sahel. Somalia Events in North Africa have not Increased vigilance, resolve and yet run their course; elsewhere in collaboration are essential among Africa, sparks of discontent, often those who oppose terrorism in all fuelled by fear or avarice, could its forms. No individual African, no ignite into peace and security individual African country, should conflagrations, as has happened pretend to immunity from such before. Mission analysis: African- murderous acts without first led International Support acting decisively to defeat the 10 terrorist scourge by whatever Mission in the Central means possible. African Republic (AFISM- CAR) Current PSC Chair Bio data: H.E. Mohamed Idriss Farah Important dates to diarise 16 Current posts: Djibouti’s Ambassador to Ethiopia Permanent Representative to the AU and UNECA and Chair of the PSC Livingstone formula ‘Civil Society Organizations may provide technical support to the African Union by undertaking early warning reporting, and situation analysis which feeds information into the decision-making process of the PSC’ – PSC/PR/(CLX), 5 December 2008, Conclusions of a Retreat of the PSC on a mechanism of interaction between the Council and CSOs. 1 PSC Report • Issue 51 • October 2013 Country analysis International Consultative Forum embarked on a very delicate and that would bring together Egypt uncertain political path towards and relevant international instability. EGYPT stakeholders to facilitate The situation of the Copts, who coordinated action in support of a account for ten per cent of the Introduction transition leading to the Egyptian population, remains an restoration of constitutional order, The last country analysis on Egypt ongoing concern. Numerous the deepening of the democratic was published in the August 2013 churches have been looted and process, and the mobilisation of edition of the Peace and Security torched, thereby placing the Copt economic and financial support Council Report, no. 49. Readers minority in a state of fear and commensurate with the needs of interested in previous analyses on insecurity. In addition, Egypt’s dire Egypt and the challenges facing Egypt are also invited to consult economic situation, which is the country. the March, May, July and urgently in need of rebuilding and September 2011 issues, as well as Crisis escalation potential reform, is worsening the country’s the January, March, June, July and socio-political burdens by the day. Following the ousting of former September 2012 editions and the Clearly, the socio-political and president Mohamed Morsi, the April 2013 edition. economic crisis indicates that political situation in Egypt Egypt is not only deeply divided Previous PSC and AU remains volatile. Scores of but also apparently heading for communiqués and statements Egyptians, mainly civilians, have many years of instability and died during protests while violent The Peace and Security Council increasing uncertainty. The confrontations continue to occur (PSC) of the African Union (AU), at instalment of a genuine among the population, including its 384th meeting held on 5 July democratic political system, the between the army and Morsi 2013, recalled its previous tackling of unemployment and supporters. On 14 August the pronouncements on the situation the return of foreign investments army fired live ammunition at the in Egypt, in particular are urgent problems the Egyptian ex-president’s demonstrating communiqué PSC/PR/COMM. authorities will rapidly need to supporters, killing an estimated (CCLX), adopted at its 260th solve. meeting on 16 February 2011. In 600 people. Key issues and internal this communiqué, the Council Since the military coup d’état, expressed the AU’s solidarity with Morsi and several other Muslim dynamics the Egyptian people, whose desire Brotherhood (MB) leaders, Since the ousting of Morsi in July, for democracy was consistent including Mohammed Badie and the political situation in Egypt has with the relevant AU instruments, his deputy, Khairat al-Shatir, the worsened. Scores of Egyptians, and recognised the exceptional MB’s main English-language mainly civilians, have died during nature of the situation then spokesperson Gehad al-Haddad, violent confrontations with the prevailing in Egypt. as well as hundreds of MB police and soldiers. The situation sympathisers and supporters, in the Sinai Peninsula is also The Council further expressed have been detained and are deteriorating, with many attacks deep concern at the risks posed waiting for their trials to take involving alleged Islamist by the prevailing situation for the place. Moreover, the MB’s assets militants. At least 25 policemen long-term stability of Egypt and have been temporarily frozen. As and six soldiers have been killed the cohesion of its people, with a result, MB supporters fear they in the Sinai since July. In potentially far-reaching national are facing the return of the Sadat September, two fake bombs were and regional consequences. and Mubarak eras. found in the Cairo metro while Accordingly, and as mandated by the army also engaged in a gun The attempted assassination of the relevant AU instruments, the battle with alleged Islamist the Egyptian Minister of the Council decided to suspend the militants in the village of Interior and the government’s participation of Egypt in the AU’s Kerdassa, near Cairo. By mid- preoccupation with the security activities until the restoration of September, at least 28 suspects situation in the Sinai, where an constitutional order. had been arrested in connection increasing number of clashes with some of these attacks. The Council also requested the between Egyptian armed forces Chairperson of the AU and militant groups are taking Furthermore, an atmosphere of Commission to establish an place, forewarn that Egypt has hatred is perceptible in the streets 2 PSC Report • Issue 51 • October 2013 of Cairo and other cities. In a the interim government and the political affairs, has declared that McCarthy-era style of betrayal and army are looking at the possibility the Supreme Council of the intrigue, people are starting and of banning the MB and listing it as Armed Forces (SCAF) ‘will not reporting rumours about each a terrorist organisation. Jordan stand by silently watching the other with the encouragement of and Saudi Arabia, who strongly destruction of the country and the interim authorities. Islamists support the Egyptian army and the people or the torching of the and MB supporters have become the coup against the MB, have nation and [the] terrorising [of] the primary targets of these both expressed solidarity with the citizens’. As a result, many rumourmongers and as a result current interim regime in Cairo. Egyptians, mainly but not only many men have shaved their Islamist sympathisers, fear that The interim government has beards to avoid harassment and al-Sissi wants to return Egypt to a reported numerous arrests of MB arrest. Mubarak-like ruling style of sympathisers as well as of Jihadists, secular authoritarianism. Egypt’s Interior Minister, in addition to the discovery of a Mohammed Ibrahim, survived a large amount of arms. However, Since the 1952 free officers’ car bomb explosion in Cairo in this information, as relayed by the revolution, Egypt’s army and September targeting his convoy. state media, has not been verified leadership has been courted and This was the first attack on a by independent sources. commanded by people whose high-ranking government official religious fervour should be Moreover, Mohamed El-Baradei, in Egypt since July this year. underlined. Gamal Abdel Nasser who was initially nominated as According to Egyptian officials, was himself a former MB partisan vice-president and who then this assassination attempt was an who then crushed his former allies resigned after the bloody act of terrorism, which brings to in 1954. repression of civilians by the army mind the dark years of the 1980s. and the police, is now being A parallel may also be drawn with In the wake of the increasingly stigmatised by the media. A Cairo al-Sissi. Morsi’s appointment of dire political situation, the interim court has also charged him with al-Sissi as Egypt’s Minister of government declared a state of ‘having betrayed the public trust’. Defence last year came about emergency, initially for the Clearly, this development shows because he viewed the General as duration of one month, but which the lack of independence in the not only a loyal supporter but also has since been extended for a media and the power of the as a pious Muslim whom he could further two months across the judges. Meanwhile, Mubarak has trust. However, it soon became country, with a curfew between been freed from prison and is now clear that al-Sissi had merely been 19:00 and 06:00.
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