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Good Strategy, Bad Tactics: Limits, Challenges and Opportunities For

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Good Strategy, Bad Tactics: Limits, Challenges and Opportunities For LIMITS, CHALLENGES, AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR MODERN COUNTERINSURGENCY by Natasha Schlenoff A thesis submitted to Johns Hopkins University in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Global Security Studies Baltimore, Maryland August 2015 © 2015 Natasha Schlenoff All Rights Reserved ABSTRACT The overall goal of this thesis is to draw some conclusions about the kinds of strategies and tactics that those engaging in irregular warfare should employ. Given the increasing number of intrastate conflicts and future U.S. involvement in counterinsurgency, it is important for policy makers and strategists to be clear-eyed about viable ways to engage in irregular war. Thus, this paper’s analysis of previous counterinsurgency and stability operations, and estimate of the U.S. military’s institutional capacity to adapt to irregular warfare could serve as a useful guide for future force planning. The first and second chapters of this thesis examine divergent strategies in counterinsurgency and stability operations. Chapter One assesses whether indiscriminate force is strategically effective in national counterinsurgency campaigns. The findings of this chapter indicate that while indiscriminate force may be tactically effective in the near-term, indiscriminate force alone does not produce long-term success. Chapter Two assesses conditions for conflict and stability in Iraq, and why, despite similarly low levels of development and proximity to violence, some areas of Iraq are more stable than others. My research found the examined Shi’a and Kurdish communities in Iraq maintained stability as a result of ethnic homogenization and a capable local security force, rather than COIN and international development efforts. Chapter Three examines U.S. strategic culture and the U.S. military’s ability to adapt to irregular warfare during Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF). U.S. strategic culture can generally be defined as the historical tendency to focus on high intensity combat operations and conventional capabilities. I analyzed the capacity to adapt on the ii operational learning level and the institutional level. I concluded that although there is evidence that the U.S. military was adapting to irregular warfare, real institutional adaptation to counterinsurgency was limited by deep-rooted norms characteristic of the American way of war. The purpose of this study is not to argue against the value of conventional military excellence. Tactical successes are important, but many non-lethal efforts and dynamics should be heavily accounted for when engaging in irregular war. The findings of this study offer insights to various limits, challenges, and opportunities for modern counterinsurgency. Thesis Advisors: Dr. Sarah Clarke Dr. Jacob Straus Dr. Leila Austin Reviewers: Dr. David Ucko Stephen Grenier iii Table of Contents ABSTRACT ....................................................................................................................... ii INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................. 1 CHAPTER ONE: Counterproductive Counterinsurgency: Reconsidering the Prioritization of Military Operations and Use of Indiscriminate Force ...................... 8 Literature Review .............................................................................................................................. 10 Theory & Hypothesis ........................................................................................................................ 14 Methods ................................................................................................................................................ 15 Data/ Case Studies ............................................................................................................................. 16 Syria VS. The Muslim Brotherhood .................................................................................................... 16 Case Study: Sri Lanka VS. The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Ealam (LTTE) ....................................... 19 Case Study: Nigeria VS. Islamic Militants (Yan Tatsine, Boko Haram) ............................................. 21 Findings ................................................................................................................................................ 24 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................... 27 Chapter TWO: Conditions for Stability and Conflict in Iraq .................................... 29 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 29 Literature Review .............................................................................................................................. 31 Social Dynamics .................................................................................................................................. 32 Economic Grievances .......................................................................................................................... 34 Political and Institutional Weakness .................................................................................................... 35 Additional Areas of Consideration ...................................................................................................... 36 Unique Ideas ........................................................................................................................................ 37 Theory & Hypothesis ........................................................................................................................ 39 Methods ................................................................................................................................................ 40 Data/Case Studies: ............................................................................................................................. 41 Anbar ................................................................................................................................................... 41 Muthanna ............................................................................................................................................. 44 Duhok .................................................................................................................................................. 46 Findings ................................................................................................................................................ 48 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................... 51 CHAPTER THREE: American Strategic Culture and Counterinsurgency in Iraq 55 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 55 Literature Review .............................................................................................................................. 58 Theory & Hypothesis ........................................................................................................................ 68 Methods ................................................................................................................................................ 69 Data/ Case Study ................................................................................................................................ 70 The Iraq War (2003- 2011) .................................................................................................................. 70 Findings ................................................................................................................................................ 76 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................... 80 FINAL CONCLUSION .................................................................................................. 82 Works Cited ..................................................................................................................... 84 Curriculum Vitae ............................................................................................................ 90 iv INTRODUCTION The global trend in armed conflict shifted from interstate to intrastate during the latter half of the 20th century. Today, non-state actors are one of the toughest challenges for state, regional, and global security. Despite numerous counterinsurgency campaigns on behalf of both domestic authorities and foreign actors and coalitions, insurgents have remained persistent and resilient in a growing number of intrastate conflicts. This fact brings to light an objective reality: many states are engaging in ineffective counterinsurgency operations. Consequentially, insurgent groups are continuously able to mass mobilize communities in an alarming capacity, while afflicted states remain unable to attain and maintain security and stability within their borders. The first two chapters of this thesis explore divergent counterinsurgency and stabilization efforts. In my final chapter, I examine traditional U.S. strategic culture, and how the U.S. armed forces adapted to irregular warfare during Operation
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