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March 30, 2021

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March 30, 2021 March 30, 2021 The state of play has changed dramatically since 2016. The Turkish telco market has largely achieved mobile broadband migration in the last 4 years with 76.5% of subscribers currently using LTE (dubbed 4.5G) while total mobile penetration reached 99.6% as of the end of 2020/3Q. With one of the most advanced mobile infrastructures in the world (GSMA Mobile Connectivity Infrastructure Score=81), the sector is now pushing for growth in services beyond core which include a range of B2C and B2B services, such as pay TV, media and advertising, IoT, cloud, security, financial and lifestyle services, and solutions for vertical industries. Turkcell has been leading the way in going digital. The company’s substantial investments in network infrastructure transformation will help monetize a wide range of services prior to the expected 5G deployment in the next 3 years. Recent investments in Open RAN, private virtual networks and infrastructure (LTE- Advanced and NB-IoT) for launching enterprise verticals should also leverage the company’s existing assets in transition to 5G and support management’s efforts in revamping Turkcell’s business model towards 5G- enabled services. Wireless services have become less cyclical and more affordable. According to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) figures, the Turkish telco companies offer very affordable wireless services with mobile-voice and mobile-data basket costing about 0.9% of GNI p.c. annually in 2019 (vs. developed and developing country averages of 1.2% and 9.5%, respectively). Most notably, the average monthly price of broadband mobile data usage in Turkey has plummeted to TL3.6 per GByte/user in 2020 from avg. TL6.5 in 2014-2017 on the back of a sharp rise in mobile data usage. Our analysis shows that income elasticity of mobile data spending in Turkey has declined significantly to avg. 1.2 in 2017-2020 from avg. 3.0 in 2011- 2016, hinting at higher pricing power for operators (see page 13). Strong revenue growth driven by digital services. With mobile data revenues currently accounting for 85% of total revenues (vs. 30% in 2015), pushing for higher digital business revenues has become a strategic goal for Turkcell. As a result of the strategic shift in Turkcell’s business model, digital consumer (TV+, BiP, Fizy,LifeBox), digital business and fintech (PayCell) services revenues have grown exponentially at 70% CAGR in 2017-2020, accounting for 25% of the total increase in revenues. Our forecasts suggest that Turkcell’s revenues can comfortably grow at 16% CAGR in 2020-23E (vs. consensus 12% CAGR) largely driven by 27% CAGR in digital services revenues representing 20% of revenues as of end-2025E (vs. 11.5% as of end- 2020). CAPEX will continue to remain high, but for a good reason. We expect Turkcell’s CAPEX (ex-license fees) in network infrastructure (including fiber) to hover at ~18% of revenues in the next 3-5 years (vs. avg. 25% in 2017-2020). In our view, these investments are essential for capitalizing on existing infrastructure assets and will help lock in on 5G-enabled services after 5G deployment. Despite heavy CAPEX investments, with Net Debt/EBITDA (ex-TFC) of 0.7x as of end-2020, Turkcell’s leverage is significantly lower than its EMEA/MENA peer median of 1.4x. We see the company’s FCF generation (including rental expenses) robust at ~15% of total revenues in 21E-23E, which should push down financial leverage (Net Debt/EBITDA) to 0.25x by end- 23E. High profitability supported by strong FCF/EBITDA. We expect EBITDA margins to stabilize at about 40-42% in medium term (17% CAGR EBITDA in 2020-23E) implying an avg. FCF/EBITDA of 40% in 21E-23E (vs. avg. 40% in 2017-20) on the back of high data usage and rapidly growing digital services revenues. On our estimates, Turkcell will continue to deliver high profitability with an avg. ROE of ~23% in 21E-23E (vs. 21.8% as of end-2020) compared to consensus EMEA/MENA peer median of 17% as of end-2020. We forecast 22% CAGR growth in net income (vs. cons. avg. 18%) in 2020-23E. In our view, consensus is underestimating the positive impact of digital services on sales and margins, and thus on net earnings growth. Turkcell is grossly undervalued after the sell-off. The stock is trading at cons. 2.6x 22E EV/EBITDA compared to 4.6x for EMEA/MENA peers with half the median leverage and 30% higher ROE. With substantially lower regulatory risks (and mostly priced in), unjustified corporate governance concerns (TWF is the majority shareholder), and an expected DPS pay-out of avg. 50% of EPS in 21E-23E, we initiate coverage on Turkcell with a target price of TL21.3 and BUY rating, offering 45% upside. March 30, 2021 ◼ ◼ ◼ ◼ ◼ ◼ ◼ ◼ ◼ ◼ ◼ ◼ 2 March 30, 2021 Source: Company data, INFO RESEARCH estimates *Mobile Revenues/Total no. of mobile subs **Retail and Business Fixed Broadband Revenues/Total no. of subscribers 3 March 30, 2021 Valuation Revenues 21,115 25,136 29,104 34,024 39,375 44,917 50,084 55,814 58,828 Growth rate 14% 19% 16% 17% 16% 14% 12% 11% EBITDA 8,750 10,406 12,248 14,386 16,785 19,494 21,367 23,960 22,355 EBITDA margin 41.4% 41.4% 42.1% 42.3% 42.6% 43.4% 42.7% 42.9% 38.0% Operational CAPEX -4,539 -4,703 -5,608 -6,746 -6,900 -7,998 -8,562 -9,172 -8,824 Capex /Revenues -21.5% -18.7% -19.3% -19.8% -17.5% -17.8% -17.1% -16.4% -15.0% Rental Payments -583 -1,232 -1,573 -2,060 -2,019 -2,047 -2,164 -2,289 -2,500 Change in WC -277 450 -39 148 -20 152 49 134 144 Tax -495 -786 -387 -1,257 -1,527 -1,915 -2,281 -2,712 -2,858 FCF 2,856 4,136 4,641 4,471 6,318 7,686 8,410 9,922 8,317 Discount factor 0.89 0.77 0.66 0.57 0.49 0.42 Discounted FCF 3,991 4,857 5,089 4,794 4,871 Risk free rate 18% Equity risk premium 7% Beta (x) 0.90 Cost of equity 24% Cost of debt after tax 14% Share of Debt 60% Tax Rate 22% WACC 16% Terminal growth rate 5% PV of FCF (2021-25) 23,602 PV of Terminal value 32,785 Target EV 56,387 Net Debt 9,726 Minority Interest 170 P/E (x) 7.6 6.4 5.3 4.2 EV/EBITDA (x) 3.6 3.1 2.6 2.3 Target equity value 46,831 P/Sales (x) 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 EV/Sales (x) 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.0 Current Price (TRY/s) 14.70 FCF/EV (x) 10.4% 10.1% 14.2% 17.3% EV/Subscriber (USD) 124 127 123 120 Source: Company data, INFO RESEARCH estimates 4 March 30, 2021 VOD SJ Vodacom 12.8 12.1 6.9 6.5 2.8 2.7 6.3 20.1 8 4 6 0.70 15.2 MTN SJ MTN Group 11.3 9.9 3.6 3.4 1.5 1.4 4.1 15.0 10 3 3 1.31 16.8 MTSS RX Mobile TelSys 9.2 8.6 4.8 4.6 2.1 2.0 9.4 7 4 4 2.17 18.3 ZAIN KK Zain Kuwait 14.1 13.2 6.5 6.2 2.6 2.5 5.2 12.3 10 3 2 1.44 18.8 HTO GA Hellenic Telecom 13.2 12.0 5.5 5.4 2.1 2.1 4.1 24.4 11 -2 3 0.82 20.5 ORDS QD Ooredoo QPSC 14.1 11.9 3.8 3.8 1.7 1.6 3.6 6.4 1 2 3 1.88 20.2 CPS PW Cyfrowy Pol 12.2 11.8 7.0 6.9 2.5 2.4 3.5 9.2 5 2 3 2.89 9.0 RTKM RX Rostelecom 9.3 8.1 4.2 4.0 1.5 1.5 4.9 17.1 18 4 6 2.47 23.7 TTKOM TI TTKOM 5.1 4.3 2.6 2.4 1.2 1.1 7.6 33.6 28 10 10 1.25 23.2 TELEC CP O2 Czech 13.2 13.5 6.8 6.9 2.3 2.3 8.1 54.6 0 0 0 1.02 13.5 VEON NA VEON Ltd 5.1 4.0 3.4 3.3 1.5 1.5 0.0 17.1 20 3 4 2.53 22.3 PLY PW PLAY Comm. 10.4 10.4 6.3 6.1 2.2 2.2 4.3 65.0 3 3 3 2.61 11.0 HT CZ Hrvatski Telekom 17.2 15.8 4.0 4.2 1.7 1.7 4.2 6.5 8 0 -2 -0.94 0.0 OPL PW Orange Polska 27.6 18.2 5.4 5.1 1.4 1.4 0.0 2.4 86 1 0 2.51 17.0 TKG SJ Telkom SA 9.4 7.9 2.8 2.6 0.8 0.7 1.2 8.5 12 3 7 1.17 17.9 MTELEKOM HB Magyar Telekom 9.8 9.6 3.9 3.8 1.3 1.3 5.0 6.1 2 1 1 1.85 16.8 ETEL EY Telecom Egypt 3.8 3.5 3.4 3.1 1.1 1.1 2.3 12.1 16 5 10 1.65 34.6 DIGI RO Digi NV 22.9 7.1 3.8 3.6 1.4 1.3 1.9 29.6 nm 8 6 2.61 27.6 STC AB Saudi Telecom 20.0 19.2 9.7 9.4 3.7 3.5 3.5 17.1 5 4 5 -0.35 21.6 SAFCOM KN Safaricom PLC 22.4 19.8 11.9 10.6 6.1 5.5 1.2 51.3 9 5 4 0.15 0.0 ETISALAT UH Emirates Telcom 19.9 19.5 7.1 6.9 3.6 3.5 5.8 18.4 2 2 1 -0.14 13.5 TCELL TI 6.3 5.6 2.9 2.6 1.2 1.1 2.5 21.9 18 12 13 0.75 19.3 Source: Bloomberg, Factset via EquityRT 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2020 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2021 Peer (median) TCELL Source: Bloomberg consensus estimates Source: Bloomberg consensus estimates 5 March 30, 2021 VODACOM 3.3 4.1 3.6 2.8 MTN Group 38.8 18.9 37.5 41.6 MTS -8.5 -3.3 -7.9 -8.1 ZAIN KUWAIT 4.6 1.2 4.4 5.1 HELLENIC TELECOM.
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