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Eastern Europe Pay TV Forecasts Table of Contents

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Eastern Europe Pay TV Forecasts Table of Contents Eastern Europe Pay TV Forecasts Table of Contents Published in March 2018, this 224-page PDF and excel report comes in five parts: • Executive summary and regional forecasts, with handy comparison tables to reveal the best growth prospects; • Regional forecasts summary from 2010 to 2023 by platform, by household penetration, by pay TV subscribers and by pay TV revenues; • Country profiles and analysis for 22 territories; • Detailed forecasts for 22 countries, including 75 operators. • NEW FOR 2018: Prospects. Summary subscriber forecasts for 22 countries in a graphically appealing 47-page document. For more information, please click here or contact [email protected] If you do not want the full report, you can buy the Eastern Europe Pay TV Prospects report for half the price of the full report. Please contact [email protected] for more details, including the table of contents and sample pages. Forecasts for the following 22 countries and 76 operators: Country No of ops Operators Albania 3 Digitalb; Tring; Albtelecom Belarus 3 MTIS, Zala, Velcom Bosnia 3 Telemach, M:Tel; Total TV Bulgaria 3 Bulsatcom, Vivacom, M:Tel Croatia 2 Max TV/T-HT, Vip Cyprus 3 Cytavision; Cablenet; Primetel Czech Rep 5 UPC, O2, Digi TV, Skylink; T-Mobile Estonia 3 Starman/Zuum, Elion, Viasat Greece 2 Nova, Cosmote Hungary 5 T-Home, Digi TV, UPC, Invitel, MinDig Latvia 3 Baltcom, Lattelecom, Viasat Lithuania 3 TEO, Cgates, Viasat Macedonia 3 Vip/Boom; Max TV; Total TV Moldova 1 Sun Montenegro 2 Total TV; CT Poland 9 Multimedia Polska, UPC, Vectra, Inea, Toya, TP/Orange, Cyfra Polsat, NC+, Netia Romania 4 RCS-RDS/Digi TV, UPC, Telecom Romania, Orange TV Russia 8 Akado, ER Telecom, MTS, Rostelecom, Beeline/Veon, NTV Plus, Tricolor, Orion Serbia 2 SBB, Telekom Srbija Slovakia 3 UPC, Skylink, Nova Digi/Slovak Telekom Slovenia 5 Telemach, Siol TV, Total TV, T-2, A1 Ukraine 1 Volia SAMPLE: Hungary pay TV insight • Pay TV penetration is already very high at 90% of homes, but it will fall slightly over the next five years. The number of TV households is also falling. So, pay TV subscribers will fall by 148,000 between 2017 and 2023. Pay TV revenues peaked in 2017 at $490 million but will fall to $446 million by 2023. • Just under half the TV households subscribe to cable and a quarter receive satellite TV services. Cable will lose subscribers to IPTV in coming years as competition (mainly to convert analog cable subs) intensifies. IPTV will reach 23.0% of homes in 2023, up from 18.7% in 2017. Main assumptions behind the forecasts • We have lowered our household and TV household figures since the last edition. • The number of TV households will continue to fall. • The population is falling as people go abroad to seek work. • Pay TV penetration is high and competition is fierce. • Price wars ended in 2017. • Pay satellite TV and pay DTT subscriber numbers are falling as homes convert to IPTV and digital cable. • T-Home is the largest pay TV operator, although UPC is not far behind. Digi’s merger with Invitel will create another large player • The HUF strengthened against the USD in 2017 • The IMF has improved its GDP growth forecasts. Source: Digital TV Research • Digital TV penetration reached 79% of TV households by end-2017, with 100% to be achieved by 2023. As analog terrestrial TV was switched off in 2013, all of the remaining analog homes are cable. Hungary: Pay TV subs by platform (000) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Total pay TV subs 3,122 3,213 3,288 3,402 3,409 3,479 3,533 3,546 Pay TV subs for top 10 2,666 2,842 2,908 3,032 3,095 3,206 3,276 3,338 players (94% share) Total cable/IPTV 2,253 2,257 2,310 2,395 2,381 2,451 2,560 2,618 Cable/IPTV subs for top 8 1,800 1,874 1,907 1,988 2,076 2,206 2,304 2,409 players (92% share) of which analog 1,243 1,184 1,071 984 931 906 843 759 of which digital 557 690 836 1,005 1,145 1,300 1,461 1,649 Sat TV subs (3 ops 98%) 869 920 915 921 901 896 871 831 Total satellite TV 869 920 915 921 920 914 889 848 DTT 0 49 82 123 113 104 101 97 Digital subs for top 10 1,423 1,658 1,836 2,049 2,163 2,299 2,433 2,579 Source: NMHH • The National Media and Communications Authority’s (NMHH) Flash report estimated 3.55 million pay TV homes by end-2017, up slightly year-on-year. Analog cable, satellite TV and pay DTT all lost subscribers in 2017. • At first glance, the Hungarian pay TV sector looks fragmented, with more than 400 cable operators, three main satellite TV platforms and three IPTV services. Hungary: Split of pay TV subs by major operator (%) 4Q10 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 UPC 29.0 25.9 26.7 26.4 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.4 T-Home 25.0 22.4 22.9 23.7 25.1 25.4 25.2 26.8 Digi TV 25.9 23.0 23.2 22.5 23.3 24.3 25.1 25.5 Invitel 3.3 3.7 4.1 4.5 4.8 4.9 MinDig TV Extra 3.2 2.5 3.6 3.4 3.0 2.9 2.7 Other 20.1 25.5 21.4 20.1 17.1 15.9 15.1 13.7 Source: NRA; T-Home; NMHH • However, UPC and Magyar Telekom (T-Home) offer TV services across multiple platforms. DigiTV is the third major operator but will challenge the other two when it merges with Invitel. These three operators control more than three- quarters of pay TV subscribers. UPC Hungary operating data (000) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Analog cable subs 335 323 307 257 210 170 131 92 Digital cable subs 248 290 327 377 431 479 532 591 Total cable subs 583 613 634 634 641 649 663 683 Satellite TV subs 190 219 243 265 280 289 292 266 Total video subs 772 833 877 899 921 938 955 949 Internet subs 369 428 487 518 554 588 632 675 Telephony subs 276 306 397 446 492 535 580 639 RGUs 1,417 1,567 1,760 1,863 1,967 2,061 2,167 2,263 Customer rels 890 966 1,030 1,051 1,076 1,095 1,113 1,111 Double-play % 32 25 16 13 12 11 11 Triple-play % 24 34 31 35 38 42 46 Source: Liberty Global • Despite the market maturity, UPC continues to add subscribers. We forecast 1.18 million subscribers by 2023. UPC’s digital cable TV subscribers pay HUF4,590-6,090/month ($17.32-22.98) for 68-98 channels. Analog subs pay HUF2,790/month ($10.53) for 27 channels. By end-2017, 11% of its cable subs were double-play and 46% triple-play. • UPC had a further 265,900 satellite TV subscribers (HUF2,990-4,290/month ($11.83-16.92) for 80-120 channels. Horizon Go is available – but not the full Horizon service – and SVOD platform Myprime (HUF1,490/month for 300 movies and 1,000 hours of series). Liberty Global also has a worldwide deal to distribute Netflix. Digi TV operational data (000) 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 Cable TV subs 385 404 411 437 473 500 Satellite TV subs 368 341 330 318 307 291 Total TV subs 753 745 741 755 780 791 Broadband subs 301 329 347 382 428 467 Cable TV ARPU € 7.70 7.32 7.11 7.23 7.45 8.20 Satellite TV ARPU € 8.10 7.97 7.60 7.75 8.22 9.20 Source: Digi Communications • Digi TV has been much more forthcoming with information since parent and Romania-based RCS-RDS issued bonds. In Hungary, Digi TV had 791,000 TV subscribers by end-2017; up by 11,000 year-on-year. Satellite TV ARPU is a little higher than cable. We forecast 681,000 subs by 2023, with analog cable losing 241,000 subs and digital cable gaining 173,000 and satellite falling by 42,000. Digital cable subs pay HUF2,640/month ($9.96) for 99 channels and satellite TV ones HUF3,300/month ($12.45) for 80 channels. Invitel operating data (000) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1H16 IPTV subscribers 0 28 44 56 71 80 Cable subscribers 84 81 83 85 85 85 Triple-play 26% 32% 35% Churn 11.5% 13.2% 11.8% Source: Invitel • The residential and small business interests of Invitel (692,000 RGUs) were acquired by Digi in July 2017, pending regulatory approval. Mid-Europa Partners was reported in March 2014 to have its 51% in the company up for sale. Chinese-CEE Fund bought all of Invitel in January 2017. • By mid-2016, Invitel had 85,000 cable TV subs (mostly analog, with the total flat) and 80,000 IPTV subs (HUF4,290-5,490/month ($16.19-20.72) for 36-94 channels – prices were lowered in 2017). We forecast slow growth to 189,000 subs by 2023. Telekom Hungary TV operational data (000) 4Q10 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 Cable subs 370 290 230 191 173 157 129 122 IPTV subs 124 226 313 390 445 498 550 629 Satellite TV subs 254 281 291 307 307 307 290 276 Total TV subs 749 797 835 888 925 962 969 1,026 Pay TV market share % 25.4 25.8 27.2 27.6 27.7 28.9 Blended TV ARPU 2,949 3,048 3,106 3,139 3,155 3,280 3,332 3,437 (HUF) Cable broadband subs 181 213 246 282 315 341 347 370 DSL/fiber subs 482 500 539 518 549 656 669 704 Source: T-Home • Incumbent Magyar Telekom (T-Home) recorded 1,026,000 TV subs by end- 2017, with IPTV adding 79,000 in the year, cable (HUF3,560/month, $13.43) losing 7,000 and satellite (HUF1,500-5,047/month, $5.66-19.05 for 21-132 channels) losing 14,000.
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