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4Ig Initiation of Coverage IT, Hungary 26 May 2021 Sponsored research report 4iG Initiation of coverage Valuation range: HUF 782-996/share The rise of a Hungarian technology star We initiate sponsored research coverage of 4iG, and we see the company as a compelling growth story (a 2020-23E EBITDA CAGR of 34%), with Expected events results expansion stemming from organic growth and market consolidation via numerous M&A. While it is the No.2 player in the 2Q21 results 31 August segment currently, by 2022E, this could result in 4iG becoming the No.1 3Q21 results 25 November IT company in Hungary and a relevant player in the CEE and Balkan region, in our view. We appreciate 4iG’s strategy, aimed at transforming Key data from commodity-like services to more sophisticated technological segments, including telecoms services, data centres, defence and Share price HUF 604 satellite services. On our estimates, 4iG trades at a 24% discount vs. its Market Cap HUF 56.8bn 3M ADTV HUF 42.3m peers on 2021E EV/EBITDA and 39-44% discounts on the 2022-23E Free float 35% EV/EBITDAs. We see the potential fair valuation range at HUF 782- Shares outstanding 94m 996/share vs. its current share price of HUF 604. Major S/holder Gellért Jászai, CEO: 62% Bloomberg Code 4iG HB Second-largest IT integration company in Hungary. 4iG offers SI&IT BUX Index 46,397 services, managed services and the outsourcing of IT operations. It is the fastest-growing Hungarian IT company (102% 2018-20 sales CAGR), with a strategic goal of replacing T-Systems as the No.1 IT systems integrator in Price performance Hungary by 2022E, and a significant player in the CEE and Balkan region. It 52-w range HUF 488-716 aims to achieve this through both organic growth and M&A, and has been 52-w performance -4.3% executing its strategy consistently: in 2020, it acquired three companies and Relative performance -36.1% co-founded CarpathiaSat JV; while, in 1Q21, it signed another five investment agreements. 4iG 12M share price performance Transforming into a more sophisticated IT services company. 4iG’s 900 BUX Index Rebased 4IG further growth potential should stem from international expansion and the 850 800 diversification of its current services portfolio, as it is aiming towards more 750 sophisticated, value-added IT services (in 2020, 59% of revenues came from 700 hardware & software sales). Its further business diversification should stem 650 600 from its entry into: data centres, through the DTSM acquisition; defence, where 550 the first step is the investment in Rotor & Cams; satellite services, through the 500 CarpathiaSat JV; and telecoms services, via the HDT and DIGI HU 450 400 acquisitions (the latter not included in our model yet). We forecast the share of May-20 Aug-20 Nov-20 Feb-21 May-21 IT services in revenues to increase from 41% in 2020 to 65% in 2023E. DIGI HU acquisition and CarpathiaSat JV – the most transformative projects for 4iG. The company holds a 51% stake in CarpathiaSat, which is aiming to launch a satellite into geostationary Earth orbit in 2024E. In March 2021, 4iG signed an agreement to acquire DIGI HU, a telco with 2.5m RGUs and HUF 19bn in EBITDA in 2020. We believe the DIGI HU acquisition and the CarpathiaSat JV offer material upside for 4iG’s equity story. Due to a lack of data at the current stage of development, however, we do not incorporate either in our forecasts. EBITDA margin to expand from 9% in 2020 to 11% in 2023E. We expect 4iG to record a 34% 2020-23E EBITDA CAGR. This is on the back of a growing top line, driven by organic expansion (we estimate a 2020-23E organic sales CAGR of 16%), and the consolidation of the businesses acquired in 2020- 1Q21. The latter adds HUF 15.3bn, HUF 24.3bn and HUF 27.2bn to our sales forecasts in 2021-23E, respectively. Valuation range at HUF 782-996/share. Our valuation range is based on a blend of our comparative valuation, using the median 2021-23E P/E multiples (a mid-point of HUF 996), the median 2021-23E EV/EBITDAs (a mid-point of HUF 832) and our DCF model, implying a fair value of HUF 782. On our estimates, 4iG trades at a 24% discount vs. its peers on 2021E EV/EBITDA and 39-44% discounts on the 2022-23E EV/EBITDAs. Year Revenues EBITDA NI EPS FCFPS ND/EBITDA FCF yield DPS Div yield P/E EV/EBITDA HUFbn HUFbn HUFbn HUF HUF x % HUF % x x 2020 57.3 5.0 3.4 36.1 9.7 -0.6x 1.6% 24 4.0% 16.7x 10.7x EQUITY 2021E 83.5 8.0 5.2 50.8 -48.0 -0.1x -8.6% 26 4.3% 11.0x 7.0x 2022E 102.7 10.4 7.2 70.5 64.1 -0.5x 11.5% 36 5.9% 7.9x 5.1x RESEARCH 2023E 115.1 12.1 8.5 83.1 74.4 -0.7x 13.4% 42 7.0% 6.7x 4.1x Analysts: Piotr Raciborski, CFA; Pawel Wieprzowski, PhD Warsaw: +48 222 221 551 E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected] Website: www.wood.com Contents Company snapshot – valuation range: HUF 782-996 .................................................................................... 3 Company description ....................................................................................................................................... 4 The Hungarian IT market................................................................................................................................ 16 Risks ................................................................................................................................................................ 20 Valuation range at HUF 782-996/share ......................................................................................................... 21 Financial forecasts ......................................................................................................................................... 25 Financials ........................................................................................................................................................ 28 Important disclosures .................................................................................................................................... 30 Closing Prices as of 24 May 2021 © 2021 by WOOD & Company Financial Services, a.s. All rights reserved. No part of this report may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic or mechanical without written permission from WOOD & Company Financial Services, a.s. This report may not be lent, resold, hired out or otherwise disposed of by way of trade in any form of binding or cover other than that in which it is published without written permission from WOOD & Company Financial Services, a.s. Requests for permission to make copies of any part of this report should be mailed to: WOOD & Company Financial Services a.s. Palladium, Namesti Republiky 1079/1a, 110 00 Prague 1 – Czech Republic tel.: +420 222 096 111 fax: +420 222 096 222 http//:www.wood.cz 4iG 2 WOOD & Company Company snapshot – valuation range: HUF 782-996 4IG SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE COMPANY DESCRIPTION Bloomberg ticker 4IG HB 4iG is the second-largest IT integration company in Hungary in terms of revenue and 900 BUX Index Rebased 4IG Closing price, HUF 604 850 employment size, operating since 1995. The company offers SI&IT services (digitalisation Valuation range, HUF 782-996 800 750 solutions for specific industries; custom solutions and development capabilities; IT Shares outstanding, m 94.0 700 infrastructure, including data centre, multicloud centralised and distributed systems, and Market cap, HUF bn 56.8 650 Free float 35% 600 client solutions), as w ell as managed services and the outsourcing of IT operations. In 3M ADTV, HUF m 42.3 550 52 Week performance -4.3% 500 2020, 4iG generated sales of HUF 57.3bn and HUF 5.0bn in EBITDA, and employed (directly 52 Week relative performance -36.1% 450 and indirectly) 924 employees as of end-2020. 4iG listed on the Budapest Stock Exchange 52 Week Range, HUF 488-716 400 May-20 Aug-20 Nov-20 Feb-21 May-21 in 2005. The company’s main shareholder is Gellert Jaszai, its CEO, w ith a 62% stake. RATIOS PER SHARE RATIOS, HUF 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E DUPONT ANALYSIS 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E Number of shares (m) 19 94 94 102 102 102 Net margin 0.7% 7.0% 5.9% 6.2% 7.0% 7.4% EPS 5.4 30.8 36.1 50.8 70.5 83.1 Asset turnov er 1.67x 1.71x 1.51x 1.19x 1.26x 1.27x FCFPS -42.2 61.8 9.7 -48.0 64.1 74.4 ROA 1.2% 12.0% 9.0% 7.4% 8.8% 9.3% BVPS 145 59 78 149 195 242 Lev erage 3.09x 4.39x 4.93x 4.42x 3.90x 3.46x DPS, year of record 0.0 21.8 24.0 25.8 35.9 42.2 ROE 3.7% 52.7% 44.2% 32.7% 34.4% 32.3% FINANCIAL RATIOS 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E VALUATION RATIOS 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E EBITDA margin 6.0% 9.9% 8.8% 9.6% 10.1% 10.5% EV/Sales 4.2x 1.3x 0.9x 0.7x 0.5x 0.4x Gross margin 39.6% 27.6% 28.6% 33.2% 35.0% 35.7% EV/EBITDA 69.4x 12.9x 10.7x 7.0x 5.1x 4.1x EBIT margin 1.7% 8.1% 7.3% 8.1% 8.5% 8.8% P/BV 20.9x 10.2x 7.8x 3.7x 2.9x 2.3x Net margin 0.7% 7.0% 5.9% 6.2% 7.0% 7.4% P/E 557.1x 19.6x 16.7x 11.0x 7.9x 6.7x Net debt/EBITDA 1.9x -1.0x -0.6x -0.1x -0.5x -0.7x Net debt/equity 0.6x -0.7x -0.4x -0.1x -0.3x -0.4x Asset turnov er 1.7x 1.7x 1.5x 1.2x 1.3x 1.3x FCF yield -1.4% 10.2% 1.6% -8.6% 11.5% 13.4% Capex/deprecation -0.2x -2.0x -3.0x -8.1x -1.3x -1.5x Dividend recorded yield 0.0% 3.6% 4.0% 4.3% 5.9% 7.0% Op.
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