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Ex-Communist Party Choices and the Electoral Success of the Radical

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Ex-Communist Party Choices and the Electoral Success of the Radical Ex-Communist Party Choices and the Electoral Success of the Radical Right in Central and Eastern Europe Maria Snegovaya Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY 2018 © 2018 Maria Snegovaya All rights reserved ABSTRACT Ex-Communist Party Choices and the Electoral Success of the Radical Right in Central and Eastern Europe Maria Snegovaya What explains the proletarization (the increasing embrace by the blue-collar constituencies) of the radical right vote in the countries of post-Communist Europe? I argue that the centrist shift of the ex-Communist left parties along the economic policy dimension drives the electoral success of radical right parties in the region. I show that the programmatic shift of the ex-Communist left parties (as instrumented by the implementation of austerity reforms) opened up their traditional blue-collar constituencies to the redistributive appeals of the radical right parties. I test my argument using several different approaches. First, I examine the relationship between the support for the radical right parties and the ex-Communist left parties’ policy positions using a quantitative cross-country analysis. Second, I provide an overview of the experiences of the four Visegrád Group countries and trace the blue-collar constituencies’ shift away from the ex-Communist left parties to the populist and radical right parties over time, as the left parties became more economically centrist. I then test my argument using constituency-level and individual-level experimental survey data within Hungary. Both methods help establish that the centrist shift of the ex-Communist left parties along the economic policy dimension boosted support for the radical right party. My argument contributes to our understanding of the dynamics of political systems and the rise of the radical right parties in Europe. CONTENTS List of Figures ............................................................................................................................... v List of Tables .............................................................................................................................. viii Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1 The Puzzle ............................................................................................................................. 1 Why the Post-Communist Countries? ....................................................................................... 5 Contributions of the Dissertation ............................................................................................... 9 Plan for the Dissertation .......................................................................................................... 13 Chapter 1. Is the Radical Right the New Left? ....................................................................... 17 Party Competition in the Two-Dimensional Space ................................................................. 17 Main Argument ....................................................................................................................... 22 The Economic vs The Cultural Dimension ............................................................................. 29 Ex-Communist Left Parties and the Market Transition ........................................................... 33 Role of the Blue-Collar Constituencies ................................................................................... 38 Chapter 2. The Literature ........................................................................................................ 42 Defining the Radical Right ...................................................................................................... 42 Redistributive Agenda and the Radical Right ......................................................................... 45 The Populist Parties and the Austerity Packages..................................................................... 49 Coding the Left Parties ............................................................................................................ 53 Explaining Consistency of the Left Party Choices .................................................................. 54 Alternative Explanations ......................................................................................................... 56 Party-Level Explanations .................................................................................................... 56 Country-Level Explanations ................................................................................................ 62 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................... 67 Chapter 3. Multiple Methods ................................................................................................... 69 i Cross-Country ......................................................................................................................... 72 Case-Studies ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………75 Constituency-Level ................................................................................................................. 78 Experimental Survey ............................................................................................................... 79 Conclusion ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………83 Chapter 4. Hungary’s Left and Radical Right Parties ........................................................... 84 Historical Legacy and Transition Period ................................................................................. 84 First Wave of Realignment ...................................................................................................... 88 Second Wave of Realignment ................................................................................................. 91 The Left and Labor Policies .................................................................................................. 100 Individual-Level Surveys ...................................................................................................... 103 Earlier Findings ................................................................................................................. 104 The Shifting Allegiances of the Hungarian Working Class .............................................. 106 Conclusion…… ……………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………108 Chapter 5. Cross-Country and Case Study Analyses ........................................................... 110 Cross-Country ....................................................................................................................... 111 Case Studies………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………126 Czech Republic .................................................................................................................. 127 Poland ................................................................................................................................ 134 Slovakia ............................................................................................................................. 146 Conclusion …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 153 Chapter 6. The View from the Constituency ........................................................................ 156 The Approach ........................................................................................................................ 156 Hypotheses and Methodology ............................................................................................... 158 Results …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 161 Conclusion ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………163 ii Chapter 7. A Survey Experiment on Support for the Radical Right .................................. 165 The Policy Switch of the Center-Left and Protectionist Radical Right ................................. 167 Experimental Design ......................................................................................................... 167 Post-Treatment Questions ................................................................................................. 173 Categorizing the Blue-Collar Respondents ....................................................................... 177 Sample Statistics ................................................................................................................ 181 General Sample ................................................................................................................. 182 Blue-Collar Workers by Profession ................................................................................... 186 Self-Identified Workers ..................................................................................................... 190 Workers by Education ....................................................................................................... 193 The Policy Switch of the Center-Left and the Anti-Immigration Radical Right ................... 197 Experimental Design ......................................................................................................... 198 Sample Statistics ................................................................................................................ 202 General Sample ................................................................................................................
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