POLITICO.EU DECEMBER 2018

Doers

Dreamers

THE

PEOPLE WHO

WILL SHAPE & Disrupt EUROPE IN THE ors COMING YEAR In the waves of change, we find our true drive

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Anzeige_230x277_eTrucks_EN_181030.indd 1 31.10.18 10:29 11 CONTENTS No. 1: Matteo Salvini 8 + Where are Christian Lindner didn’t they now? live up to the hype — or did he?

17 The doers 42 In Germany, Has the left finally found its a new divide answer to right-wing nationalism?

49 The dreamers

Artwork 74 85 Cover illustration by Simón Prades for POLITICO All illustrated An Italian The portraits African refugees face growing by Paul Ryding for unwelcome resentment in the country’s south disruptors POLITICO

4 POLITICO 28 SPONSORED CONTENT PRESENTED BY WILFRIED MARTENS CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN STUDIES

THE EAST-WEST EU MARRIAGE: IT’S NOT TOO LATE TO TALK 2019 EUROPEAN ELECTIONS ARE A CHANCE TO LEARN FROM LESSONS OF THE PAST AND BRING NATIONS CLOSER TOGETHER

BY MIKULÁŠ DZURINDA, PRESIDENT, WILFRIED MARTENS CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN STUDIES

The East-West relationship is like the cliché between an Eastern bride and a Western man. She is beautiful but poor and with a slightly troubled past. He is rich and comfortable. The West which feels underappreciated and the East, which has the impression of not being heard. After 15 years of mar- riage, romance has faded. However, the West-East relationship is merely “The first in need of a marriage counselling and misunder- not a divorce. standings within the “The reason that clichés become cli- European chés is that they are the hammers and Union ap- screwdrivers in the toolbox of com- peared rap- munication,” said Terry Pratchett. And many and Russia on the gas pipeline the common market and a single cur- idly after the that’s exactly what we’re lacking: com- surprised countries of the Visegrad rency. In these areas, we must speak enlargement munication. Four — the Czech Republic, Hungary, with one voice and act efficiently. In in 2004.” Poland and Slovakia. And the efforts all other areas, however, we have to The upcoming European elections can of European institutions to regulate respect the sovereignty, but also the stimulate the much-needed debate on immigrant quotas to harmonize (thus responsibility, of member countries. the future and the reunification of the centralize) the tax systems in individ- The competencies of the European European Union. Unfortunately, the ual countries and to interfere with the institutions, as well as those of the reunification took place in more tech- competencies of the member coun- member countries must be precise- nical than political terms, form pre- tries only exacerbated the situation. ly defined. The folklore of countries vailed over content and declarative blaming the European institutions statements were stronger than the On the other hand, persistent rejec- for their own failures, and granting will to begin a common coexistence. tion and insensitivity in addition to the themselves only the successes and Nevertheless, the European elections reluctance of the new member coun- achievements, must end. of 2019 can provide a platform for an tries to look for common solutions open discussion through which past to shared problems disturbed older In fulfilling such a vision, I see a great mistakes can not only be avoided, but members. They did not only witness opportunity especially for countries of also amended and as a result, Europe an absence of empathy in times of the former Communist bloc. Commu- will be brought closer together. massive immigration waves, but also nism was a crisis of epochal dimen- a presence of strong egoism instead sions. Yet we overcame it. Just re- The first misunderstandings within of attempts to solidarize and seek and member the values we relied on then: the European Union appeared rapidly propose common approaches. the desire for freedom; the belief in after the enlargement in 2004. It all universal values; the rule of law; and started with President Chirac’s dislike The EU needs a new vision; an attrac- justice. The Communist regime intim- for the loud voices of the new mem- tive one for all. We do not even have idated, imprisoned and killed. Yet the ber countries, as the general expec- to look for it, nor artificially create Poles, Hungarians, Czechs, Slovaks, tation for them was to be silent. It one. It is right here. We just need to and those in Baltic nations and the continued with his criticism of these meet it halfway. It is a vision of EU Balkans withstood it and showed tre- nations, claiming that they were com- federalization, built and further devel- mendous resilience. I believe these mitting “social dumping” (although oped on the principle of subsidiarity. countries should offer this experience the newer EU members only tried to It is a vision of deepening European and resilience to the European com- economically promote themselves to cooperation in the areas where no munity. So basically, just like in mar- catch up with the older members). country can manage all alone such as riage counselling, it all comes down Later, the agreement between Ger- defense and security, foreign policy, to this: we need to talk. FROM THE EDITORS

If there’s one thing we’ve learned at POLITICO over the last three and a half years, it’s that every year in European politics is an important election year — in one country or another. Leaders emerge. Others fall. Power changes hands. Or it doesn’t.

Next year promises to be particularly divided them into three categories: exciting. That’s not just because the doers, dreamers and disruptors. 2019 European Parliament election Topping our list of doers is Ine will feature voters from 27 countries Marie Eriksen Søreide, the Norwegian casting the ballots that will deter- foreign minister who sits on the front mine the next crop of European lines of the West’s not-quite-conflict leaders. It’s because the usually staid with Russia. Our No. 1 dreamer is affair has actually turned into a con- Garance Pineau. As head of European test with serious consequences. affairs for Macron’s La République Nobody better represents the En Marche party, she will be seeking stakes than the person topping our to marshal the Continent’s liberals annual list of people who will shape against Salvini’s offensive. Meanwhile, Europe in the year ahead: Matteo our top disruptor, Sinn Féin leader Salvini. Having risen to dominance Mary Lou McDonald, will be hoping domestically, the Italian far-right Brexit’s bedlam will help her realize leader is taking his brand of fiery pop- her party’s dream of a united Ireland. ulism to the continental battlefield, Other political heavyweights Social Democrat Mattias Tesfaye (dis- Last year’s with every intention of overturning making this year’s list include Span- ruptor No. 2) is leading his center-left feature “How the European order. ish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez party’s increasingly hard line on Italy turned Even as polls predict that Europe’s (doer No. 2); British Labour leader immigration. And Portuguese artist Euroskeptic” traditional conservative and socialist Jeremy Corbyn (disruptor No. 3); Joana Vasconcelos (dreamer No. 6), has proven parties will get the most votes, Ukrainian presidential hopeful Yulia Kosovar popstar Era Istrefi (dreamer especially it’s Salvini and French President Tymoshenko (doer No. 5); Germany’s No. 3) and Guðrið Højgaard (dreamer prescient. Emmanuel Macron who are turning Martin Selmayr (doer No. 3), the con- No. 9), director of tourism for the the election into a battle over the troversial secretary-general of the Faroe Islands, are representing their survival of the European Union in its European Commission; and Bank of homes on the international stage. current form. With Brussels in his England Governor Mark Carney (doer Last year’s magazine included a sights, Salvini is seeking to unite the No. 6), the Canadian steering the feature by Naomi O’Leary — “How Ita- Continent’s nationalists into a Eu- United Kingdom’s economy through ly turned Euroskeptic” — that turned roskeptic bloc capable of reshaping choppy waters. out to be particularly prescient. This the Union. “I’d like to have a presence To be sure, you don’t have to be an year, Zia Weise looks at the surging in all countries,” he told POLITICO office-holder to shape the public dis- German Greens and asks whether the in an interview. “We’ll be one of the cussion. Niklas Zennström (dreamer country’s left has found a response strongest groups,” he predicted. No. 2), the Swedish co-founder of to the rising importance of identity For POLITICO 28’s fourth install- Skype, is working to make Europe politics. And photographer Enri Canaj ment, we’ve done things a bit dif- friendlier to tech startups. Mihai Sora travels to southern Italy to show how ferently. The basic idea remains the (disruptor No. 9), the 102-year-old immigrants of African origin are set- same: 28 people from 28 countries Romanian philosopher, has been bat- tling in to a country where anti-immi- worth watching in the year ahead tling the powers-that-be ever since he grant violence is on the rise. — politicians, business leaders, first took up arms against the Nazis We hope you’ll enjoy reading and activists and artists selected not for as part of the French resistance. Heli look forward to hearing what you the power of their office but for the Tiirmaa-Klaar (doer No. 4), Estonia’s think of this year’s POLITICO 28. way they are shaping their countries newly appointed cyber ambassador, or the EU. But this time, in addition is seeking to write the rules of war for — Stephan Faris to the person topping the list, we’ve the age of the internet. The Danish & Matthew Kaminski

POLITICO SPRL EXECUTIVE POLITICO 28 A JOINT VENTURE BETWEEN POLITICO AND AXEL SPRINGER Editor in Chief John F. Harris Enterprise Editor Stephan Faris Creative Director Tim Ball Executive Editor Matthew Kaminski Assistant Editor Esther King Managing Director Sheherazade Semsar-de Boisséson Copy Editor Sanya Khetani-Shah

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MARGRETHE VESTAGER NO. 2, CLASS OF 2016

The Danish competition commissioner who made a name for herself going after Google and Apple is weighing a probe into Facebook’s European tax arrangements. She’s also caught the eye of French President Emmanuel Macron, who is said to want to make her the star of his campaign to rally the Continent’s liberals and position her to be the European Commission’s next president.

SIMON HARRIS NO. 15, CLASS OF 2018

Tipped as last year’s “boy wonder” politician to watch, Ireland’s young health minister is now rewriting his country’s constitution following a historic vote to end Ireland’s near-total ban on abortion earlier in 2018. Giv- en Ireland’s deeply religious traditions, Harris’ efforts to liberalize the country’s strict laws are drawing intense public scrutiny and have made him a household name.

DANA REIZNIECE-OZOLA NO. 21, CLASS OF 2017

When we spoke to her in 2016, Latvia’s finance CHRISTIAN LINDNER NO. 1, CLASS OF 2018 minister and globe-trotting chess champion told us she wants to regulate the country’s rogue banks. Her job only got harder this t first blush, our choice for the No. 1 year, after her efforts and a series of scan- slot on our list last year might recall dals — Latvia’s third-largest lender collapsed; A predictions about Hillary Clinton’s its central bank governor was charged with presidential candidacy or Brexit’s bribery — made her the target of a political Remain campaign. After all, the smear campaign. leader of Germany’s Free Democrats’ decision to take his party out of coalition talks last KHALIFA HAFTAR fall ensured it would remain in opposition for years NO. 22, CLASS OF 2018 to come. Or did it? We picked Lindner not in spite of his decision to With France and Italy vying for diplomatic abruptly end negotiations, but because of it. And control of the war-torn country, the army gen- events of the past 12 months have vindicated our eral dominating Libya’s east saw his star rise prediction: His move sent tremors through Ger- last year thanks to French backing. Now with many’s political establishment that continue to Italy’s diplomatic clout diminished — partly reverberate. Lindner’s refusal to enter a coalition led the result of populist infighting — Paris looks by Chancellor Angela Merkel forced her to renew her poised to extend its influence in the war-torn unhappy marriage with the Social Democrats — a country. Expect Haftar to play a key role. process that took several tortuous weeks of delib- eration and cost SPD party leader Martin Schulz his LAJOS SIMICSKA job. NO. 19, CLASS OF 2018 A year later, the once “grand coalition” is hanging by a thread, beset by infighting and a precipitous In April, after Hungary’s Viktor Orbán won decline in popular support. In an effort to quell an his bid for reelection, his former ally-turned- uprising in her own party, Merkel agreed in October fierce critic raised his white flag. The oligarch to step aside as party leader and confirmed she shuttered his popular conservative daily wouldn’t run again for the chancellorship in the fall of newspaper and radio station and turned over 2021. Many in Berlin doubt her coalition will survive his television station to the prime minister’s that long. Whatever new government emerges after allies, marking an end to the public feud and elections is likely to include the FDP. In other words, to much of what is left of the country’s oppo- Lindner’s kingmaker strategy may work after all. sition media.

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POLITICO 28 11 12 OUR NUMBER ONE POLITICO 28 POLITICO F playbook. The Italian far-right far-right Italian playbook. The home. back war towage subsidies electoral and salaries generous institution’s the off feeding Parliament, European the in themselves incubated have they countries, own their in topower torise Unable resort. last EUROPEANIST THE Salvini Matteo Matteo Salvini is flipping the the flipping is Salvini Matteo

than an option of of option an than achoice less been European politics has leaders, entering Euroskeptic most or ITALY Brussels. on march for anationalist support up towhip prominence national his using is minister old interior 45-year- the — officials of EU crop next the extension by —and ment Parlia European next the choose to May in boxes toballot headed sights. his in Europe has Salvini establishment. Now, political ian Ital the and Brussels toward anger ofpopular awave on summer last government into surfed leader With voters across the Continent Continent the across voters With - - the French, the Dutch, the Flemish. Flemish. the Dutch, the French, the Austrians, to“the he’s talking been inRome, adding office his in view inter an in says Salvini countries,” EU. the to reshape afterward work together —and tion year’s elec next during platform acommon under campaign would that bloc Euroskeptic aunified into Continent the across from ticians seeking to rally like-minded poli is Salvini Pen, Le Marine leader “I’d like to have a presence in all all in “I’d apresence tohave like far-right French with Together - - - We’re reasoning with the Poles, the French President Emmanuel Ma- a blue suit and a brown tie. His Danes, the Swedes.” cron’s liberal yang, Salvini is trans- desk is covered with loose papers “We’ll be one of the strongest forming the European election and a thick volume: the text of the groups,” he predicts. — traditionally an electoral contest recently passed “Salvini decree,” Whether or not Salvini fulfills of little consequence — into a battle which makes it more difficult for that ambition — the nationalist over the future of the EU. asylum seekers to be recognized as camp is deeply divided and polls So far, it’s working out well for refugees. predict he’ll fall short, even if he him. Officially, Salvini is one of two is able to pull together the Con- Salvini, a 10-year veteran of the deputy prime ministers, but after tinent’s fractious Euroskeptic European Parliament, is speaking a series of high-profile confronta- movements — there’s no denying from his office in the Viminale, the tions with Brussels, he has eclipsed the impact he’s having on Europe- palatial interior ministry named both his coalition partner, Luigi

an political discourse. for its location on the peak of Di Maio, leader of the anti-estab- s By providing the populist yin to Rome’s Viminal Hill. He’s wearing lishment 5Star Movement, and the

PHOTOGRAPHS BY ANTONIO PARRINELLO/REUTERS POLITICO 28 13 country’s nominal prime minister, Giuseppe Conte. The fights Salvini has picked include a face-off with other Euro- pean governments over whether Rome should take in migrants res- cued at sea, and a showdown with Brussels over a draft budget the Eu- ropean Commission has declared would breach EU fiscal rules. The reaction from Italian voters: Support for Salvini’s League party has soared — from the 17 percent it took in March to well over 30 percent today — making it the most popular political party in the country. Were Italy to hold a new elec- tion, polls suggest that the bearded Europskeptic would emerge as the country’s next prime minister.

The miseducation of Matteo Salvini

Salvini credits his conversion to Euroskepticism to the time he spent in the European Parliament. “It opened a world to me,” he says. “I traveled the world, have made relationships, and I learned how things work.” Born into the Milanese middle class — his father worked for a chemical company and his mother as an interpreter from German into Italian — Salvini got his start in politics as the leader of a small communist faction in the party he would eventually come to run. First elected to the Europe- an Parliament in 2004, Salvini recounts in his autobiography how he was so moved by emotion that he brought his father, mother and sister with him to his debut session in Strasbourg. Forced out of his seat by his party leader Umberto Bossi in 2006, Salvini won a seat in Italy’s Chamber of Deputies in 2008, only to be voted back into the European Parliament the year after. Salvini quickly developed a rep- utation in Brussels and Strasbourg for using the chamber mostly as a megaphone, delivering inflamma- tory speeches but staying in town as little as possible — and even then spending most of that time in television studios or on the phone back home. In Strasbourg, he indulged a

Then-members of the European Parliament Marine Le Pen and Matteo Salvini take the stage during a meeting of the Europe of Nations and Freedom in Milan in 2016.

14 POLITICO 28 passion for tarte flambée, a kind of ing number of immigrants. Alsatian pizza that he’d eat at the Ahead of Italy’s last general Au Brasseur restaurant near the election in March, Salvini adopted cathedral. “He would eat them at a national strategy, shedding his lunch, dinner, always,” says Marco party’s regional focus and drop- Campomenosi, a League official ping the word “Northern” from its close to Salvini. name. The result: enough support It was in Parliament that he to join the anti-establishment 5Star came into contact with other Movement to form the country’s Euroskeptic leaders — most prom- first Euroskeptic government. inently Marine Le Pen. “It was the Salvini’s emergence as his autumn of 2013 when they met, country’s most powerful leader and they liked each other,” says has been greeted in Brussels with Paolo Borchia, the League’s inter- alarm. European Commission national coordinator. President Jean-Claude Juncker has The two leaders would meet warned the Italian budget “could often. Journalists snapped photos mean the end of the euro.” Asked of the two of them dancing togeth- to rank the biggest problems facing er after a party congress. They the EU, a senior diplomat put discussed reforming the EU, what migration first and Italy second, the alternatives might be. “She ahead of Brexit. had a vision of a European Union In his autobiography, Salvini à la carte where member states argues that leaving the eurozone can decide which regulations and would be a good thing. “We are not directives they want to apply,” says nostalgic for the lira,” he writes, Borchia. proposing to introduce a new Salvini says Le Pen and her currency rather than attempt to party taught him “steadfastness reinstitute Italy’s old scrip. “Our — meaning that in good times and homes would lose no value,” he especially bad times, when they maintains, because there would be were alone against the world, they more cash in the system. never lowered the flag.” His closest economic advisers include a trio of euroskeptic econo- Basta €uro mists he has elevated since coming to office. Alberto Bagnai, chair of By the time Salvini took control of the Senate finance committee, is his party in 2013, he was a commit- Italy’s leading critic of the euro. ted Euroskeptic. Taking the stage at Claudio Borghi, chair of the lower the party congress in Turin where chamber’s budget committee, is he was elected, he described the the author of a short handbook euro as “a crime against humani- calling on Italy to leave the euro- ty.” The following year, for the 2014 zone that Salvini has described as European Parliament election, he “very precious.” added the slogan “Basta €uro” — One of the government’s first Enough with the €uro — to his crises was an attempt by Salvini to party’s electoral symbol. appoint the 82-year-old economist Under Salvini’s predecessors, the Paolo Savona as finance minister. League — then called the Northern Savona, who once published a League — was a regionalist move- “plan B,” laying out the furtive ment dedicated to protecting Italy’s steps Italy should take to break rich, northern regions against the free of the euro, is now Europe so-called greedy clutches of Rome minister. and the poorer southern parts of As interior minister, Salvini says the country. he still considers the euro to be an “European issues were not at error, “a socially and economical- the center of the discussion,” says ly mistaken experiment.” But he Paolo Grimoldi, a longtime friend insists that he has no plans to take of Salvini’s who is now the deputy Italy out of the common curren- head of the foreign affairs commit- cy. “We are not in government to tee in the Italian parliament’s lower leave, to destroy, we work with chamber. what we have got,” he says. Salvini took the Northern League’s script and applied it to A Euroskeptic Spitzenkandidat the international stage, redirect- ing its ire from Roman rapacity to Europe will be watching closely. Brussels’ faceless bureaucracy and Lorenzo Fontana, the Italian family shifting its antipathy from southern minister and former MEP who was s Italians toward the country’s grow- instrumental in building Salvini’s

PHOTOGRAPH BY FLAVIO LO SCALZO/AGF VIA BELGA POLITICO 28 15 Migrants alliance with Le Pen, says the voting differently two times out of particularly disadvantageous to walk past an League is planning a “big conven- three.” Italian products. inscription tion” of nationalists in February Salvini says he doesn’t want to When it comes to migration, Sal- reading, or March, with the goal of possibly destroy the EU. He wants to make vini says he’d invest more in Africa, in French, picking “Matteo Salvini as the it more democratic. To be sure, as to keep people from leaving. “In “Neither candidate of everybody for the a Euroskeptic, he wants “a Europe Ghana, with €6 a day you give a Salvini, nor presidency of the Commission.” that does less, but does it well, boy an accommodation, food and a Macron” in Salvini acknowledges that the leaving national governments school,” he says. “In Europe it costs the Alpine task he’s laid out for himself is not room to maneuver.” But he also four or five times as much.” border town of an easy one. Poland’s right-wing wants to reduce the authority of He also displays an interest in Claviere, Italy. Law and Justice party, suspicious the Commission, and “give more a digital tax on internet giants, a of Russia, is unlikely to be eager powers to the only institution that proposal championed by the man to jump into bed with Salvini and is democratically elected, that is he regards as his nemesis, Macron. Le Pen, both of whom have made the European Parliament.” “I’m ready to think of new ways to overtures to the Kremlin. Dutch Among the powers he would like intervene,” he says. “A web tax on Euroskeptics are wary of being to see transferred are authority big stateless multinationals, online associated with Le Pen’s legal over national budgets (“Yes, yes, commerce, which is basically out of problems. The Austrian Freedom yes, yes,” he says when asked about control.” Party, now in government, seems it) and foreign policy. “I would have Asked if he will serve as his to be looking for more dignified a different approach,” he says. “I movement’s candidate for the Eu- company. would give more power to veto ropean Commission, a Euroskeptic “This one doesn’t like that one,” and to intervene directly to the Spitzenkandidat, he demurs but says Salvini. “For another, if this Parliament.” then rallies to the idea. one takes part, he doesn’t. But One area he’d overhaul: Euro- “If there were nobody else, and guys, we all have to …” He trails pean trade policy, where more they asked me, sure,” he says. “To off, without finding the right word. consideration should be given to save the future of Europe. That What he does know is that he does national governments. “We have 27 would be the funniest thing — if not plan to work with his coalition different cultures, different econo- Euroskeptics, the sovereignists, partners, the 5Stars. “We are two mies and different commercial sys- the euro criminals, if they were the different movements,” he says. tems,” he says. The EU’s free-trade ones who gave new life to Europe. “When I was in Strasbourg we were deal with Canada, he stresses, is I’d enjoy that a lot.” n

16 POLITICO 28 PHOTOGRAPH BY MARCO BERTORELLO/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES DATA POINT The doers Do you think 1 your voice counts?

Share of respondents to a Eurobarometer poll who Ine Marie wholeheartedly agree their voice counts in the EU and at home: Eriksen Søreide NORWAY Sweden 2 Pedro Sánchez

SPAIN 3 Martin Selmayr 48% 77% GERMANY

Counts in the EU Counts in Sweden

Germany 4

Heli Tiirmaa-Klaar ESTONIA

5

Yulia Tymoshenko UKRAINE

6 34% 46%

Counts in the EU Counts in Germany Mark Carney CANADA Bulgaria 7

10% 12% Barbara Nowacka POLAND Counts in the EU Counts in Bulgaria

Italy 8 4% 5% Miriam Dalli MALTA Counts in the EU Counts in Italy

Lithuania 9 2% 2%

Counts in the EU Counts in Lithuania Ronald Prins THE NETHERLANDS

POLITICO 28 17

1 DOER

Ine Eriksen

Søreide THE EYES AND EARS

NORWAY

hen Ine Eriksen Søreide Søreide’s position, of course, is and enacted economic countermea- wants to relax, she not without thrills of its own. Her job sures against Oslo for its support of W jumps out of a plane. puts her at the forefront of the West’s EU sanctions. Norway’s first female not-quite conflict with Russia at a Norway is a founding member of foreign minister picked time when the potential for escala- NATO but not part of the European up skydiving as a tion is higher than it’s been since the Union. In the context of Brexit, that hobby during her previous post as end of the Cold War. In recent years, makes it a model for the U.K. as a defense minister, and she’s stuck with Moscow has launched snap military country that’s not in the bloc, but it after assuming the oil-rich country’s exercises in the Arctic with little or works closely with its members. In international portfolio. “I love it,” says no warning, conducted simulated the context of an increasingly revan- Søreide, 42, in a nearly flawless Amer- bombing runs on Norwegian targets chist Russia, it places special em- ican accent. “Of course, you could say phasis on Søreide’s ability to manage that there are more down-to-earth A trio of conscripts, above, patrol her country’s relationships. “NATO s things to do, but I enjoy the rush.” the Norwegian border with Russia. is also a political alliance,” she says.

PHOTOGRAPH BY ROCCO RORANDELLI/TERRAPROJECT FOR POLITICO POLITICO 28 19 An infantry “Our military deterrent will never lin’s aggression with vigor. Norway ligence on Russian maneuvers. unit of the be stronger than our political unity was the central staging ground for Because the heightened security Russian navy’s and cohesion, and unless we have Trident Juncture in October and environment leaves little room for Northern Fleet political unity, we will never be able November, NATO’s largest exercise miscalculation, it’s critical Norway on a mountain to exercise our military capabilities.” since 2002, and announced the ar- be transparent as it improves its warfare Oslo has traditionally tried to rival of more U.S. Marines and British defenses, she says. “They are our training range balance its obligations to NATO with commandos. Neither deployment is neighbors and we cooperate prac- 15 kilometers warm ties with Moscow, with which it permanent and officially exists as a tically whenever we can,” Søreide from the shares a nearly 200-kilometer border training mission, but their presence says. “At the same time, it’s also Norwegian in the far north. But Russia’s 2014 an- has sparked a war of words with Mos- important to be firm and predictable border. nexation of Crimea and its saber rat- cow, which calls the plans “unjusti- with Russia.” tling across the Continent has thrown fied” and “provocative.” Søreide — who trained as a lawyer the relationship off keel. “Things are Russia’s Northern Fleet — which and worked as a journalist before so unpredictable today and changing includes submarines armed with throwing her hat fully into the politi- so rapidly,” says Søreide. “You have multiple nuclear warheads — is cal arena — has played a defining role to take on foreign policy issues in based about 100 kilometers from in Oslo’s response to the mounting a different way than 10 or even five the border, making Oslo the West’s tensions between Russia and the years ago.” so-called eyes and ears, conducting West. In her previous role as defense Oslo has responded to the Krem- surveillance and gathering intel- minister, she oversaw an increase in

20 POLITICO 28 PHOTOGRAPHS BY LEV FEDOSEYEV/TASS VIA BELGA military spending after years of cuts, the Arctic and the high north, coop- country is investing heavily in its A Russian with Norway buying advanced U.S. eration is still very much the name of future and has increased defense nuclear- weaponry, new submarines from Ger- the game.” spending by 24 percent since 2014. powered many and building up military bases Søreide’s job has been made more That seems to have at least satis- ballistic in the north. At the foreign ministry, difficult by friendly fire — from the fied the Pentagon. U.S. Secretary of missile she has earned a reputation as one of United States. President Donald Defense James Mattis visited Norway submarine the first to arrive and last to leave. Trump has cast doubt on America’s following a tense NATO summit in during a Still, Søreide — tall, with short commitment to NATO and berated July, and after meeting with Søreide, training black hair — is adamant that it’s members who don’t spend at least praised Oslo’s frontline role and told exercise in the crucial to keep communication chan- 2 percent of their GDP on defense. reporters that the Nordic country of Barents Sea. nels with Russia intact, especially in Last summer, Oslo received a rebuke 5.2 million is contributing beyond its the Arctic, whether it be search and from the White House in the form of “weight class” to the alliance. rescue in the unpredictable northern a letter from Trump that said Norway “In the end, [NATO] is about waters or managing cross-border is the only NATO country bordering decision-makers being willing to send fishing, Norway’s second-largest Russia that does not have “a credible their soldiers into harm’s way and industry after the oil and gas sector. plan” to meet the 2 percent thresh- risk their lives to defend each other,” “We are certainly seeing a more for- old set by the alliance for 2024. Søreide says. “We’re signing up for ward-leaning and assertive Russia,” Søreide says Norway is firmly something that is beyond our own Søreide says. “But when it comes to committed to NATO, noting that the self-interests.” n

POLITICO 28 21 22 POLITICO 28 2 DOER

Pedro Sánchez

THE HOT NEW THING

SPAIN

hen the Spanish parliament elected W him prime minister in June this year, Pedro Sánchez became a long series of “firsts” in the country’s history — the first Spanish premier who has never led his party to victory in an election, the first to seize power through a motion of no confidence, the first who doesn’t hold a parliamentary seat. Elevated into office with the back- ing of the far-left Podemos party and regional nationalists from the Basque Country and Catalonia, Sánchez now leads a fragile minority government that is struggling to get anything passed in parliament, including the 2019 budget. Which is why, with his Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party leading in the polls, many in Spain expect him to call an early vote in late 2019 — to consolidate support in parliament and, well, win a seat for himself. It’s not a contest he expects to lose. “Months ago, we were told that the future didn’t belong to us … that the only role left for social democracy in Spain was becoming a subordinate well to a wide swathe on the left but ists of some of their fire by taking a force to conservative options,” the cause divisions on the right: propos- softer approach than his predecessor 46-year-old economist says. “We’re ing to unearth the remains of dictator Mariano Rajoy and suggesting that consolidating a progressive space, Francisco Franco; taking what he the movement’s secessionist leaders hegemonic on the left, which attracts describes as a more “humane” take into account the preferences of the center.” approach to migration; promising to the half of Catalans who don’t want Young, handsome, fluent in raise the minimum wage by 22 per- to leave Spain. “Where’s the element English, with international expe- cent next year. “Leadership has a lot that unites those in favor and against rience — he went to university in to do with grasping and understand- independence?” he says. “Self-gov- Brussels, worked briefly in New ing the mood of citizens,” he says. ernment. Well, let’s talk about York and served as an adviser to the In the meantime, he has stolen self-government. And that could be a United Nations’ High Representative oxygen from his allies in parliament, constitutional solution that can have in Sarajevo — Sánchez does seem outmaneuvering the far-left Podemos a referendum.” to have tapped into his country’s with a long list of left-wing proposals Should Sánchez emerge stronger zeitgeist. In his few months in office, and enlisting its leadership in defense from a general election, expect him he has played his hand well, dealing of their joint budget proposal. He to make his presence felt interna- s out a series of measures that play has also robbed Catalan separat- tionally. He’s already deploying the

PHOTOGRAPHS BY JAIME REINA/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES (OPPOSITE), SUSANA VERA/REUTERS (NEXT PAGE) POLITICO 28 23 same bold — his critics would say imprudent — approach he brings to national politics. He has advised British Prime Minister Theresa May to call a second Brexit referendum, blasted his Austrian counterpart Sebastian Kurz for rejecting the U.N. global compact — an international, non-binding treaty on migration — and urged the Italian gov- ernment to stop fighting with Brussels. Despite his confidence, however, there is of course no guarantee he’ll prevail in the polls. His opponents reproach him for teaming up with those they regard as dangerous to Spain — the “populists” in Podemos and Catalan separat- ists — and describe him as nothing more than a pretty-faced opportunist. “[Sánchez] has a difficult shortcoming in politics,” Pablo Casado, president of the conservative People’s Party, said in November. “I’m going to say it politely: the absence of solid principles.” They note that Sánchez began his career as the young face of moderate socialism when he first became his party’s secretary-general in 2014, turned to the far left to win his party pri- mary in 2017, then veered back toward the center left after becoming prime minister. “Sánchez will be whatever he needs to be,” Albert Rivera, leader of the liberal Ciudadanos party, told the newspaper El País. The crisis in Catalonia may have died down, but it could easily flare up again. The region’s president, Quim Torra, is openly advocating defy- ing the Spanish state, and Sánchez’s opponents on the right are already accusing him of having taken too lax an approach. Meanwhile, his allies, Podemos and the Catalan nationalists, have the monarchy in their sights and have filed hundreds of petitions in town halls to abolish it. It’s an ini- tiative with no immediate legal effects, but as an issue it forces the Socialists to side with the right. Then there’s the question of whether Sánchez can navigate a political landscape fragmented by the rise of Podemos and Ciudadanos. The Socialists may be leading in the polls, but where a decade ago that would have put them in a dom- inant position, today it means they can expect to get a little more than a quarter of the vote. Sánchez’s chief of staff and electoral guru Iván Redondo describes the Socialist Party as “the red Ferrari,” for its ability to strike deals across ideological lines, allowing it to govern without winning a landslide. For Sánchez, that’s a reason for his countrymen to give him their vote. “If fragmentation in the parliament is leading to deadlock, which is the case in Spain, I think Span- iards should also think about challenging that fragmentation,” he says. “I aspire to govern alone, but logically I aspire to govern with the widest possible social and parliamentary support. In the future, it will be Spaniards who decide.” Whatever his electoral chances, Sánchez seems happy where he is. Asked what has surprised him most about his experience so far in Spain’s top job, he answers by quoting Giulio Andreotti — the deceased Italian politician who was one of the country’s longest-serving prime ministers. “Power wears out only those who don’t have it,” he says. n

24 POLITICO 28 POLITICO 28 25 Change in the making

Far too many youth are unable to obtain the digital skills they’ll need for the jobs of tomorrow. That’s why Microsoft is partnering with non-profits like Code.org to make computer science education accessible for every student.

Microsoft.com/digital-skills 3 DOER

Martin Selmayr

THE LAME DUCK

GERMANY

ill 2019 be the year European Commission W Secretary-General Martin Selmayr leaves his lasting mark on Eu- rope? Or will it be the year that EU politics takes revenge on arguably the most powerful right- hand man ever to prowl the upper halls of the Berlaymont? Selmayr may have drawn rebuke in Brussels and beyond for the way he leapfrogged into the EU’s top civil service post, but his most essential role remains unchanged: Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker’s closest confidant and adviser. And as the Commission heads into its concluding months, Selmayr, 47, is intent on fulfilling as many of Juncker’s campaign promises as possible — pledges he helped design as the future president’s campaign chairman. It won’t be an easy task. As the European Parliament election cam- paign kicks into high gear, enacting policy will become increasingly difficult — especially on tough files like migration. For Selmayr personally, an even tingencies in case of a no-deal Brexit. To hear from bigger question looms: Will the Selmayr regards And he will be at Juncker’s side if Ita- Selmayr, in his next president keep him in his job? himself as one of the ly’s violation of EU budget guidelines own words, Theoretically, he should remain in his sets off a systemic crisis. turn the page. post even as Juncker departs. But “adults in the room” His ardent federalism, however, he is identified so closely with the — someone you want remains a potential Achilles’ heel. current Commission, a new presi- Critics say his tendency to believe dent may want a clean break. And if in charge when events that Brussels can barrel past national a German is named president of the take a dangerous turn. political imperatives is not just wildly Commission or Council, there will unrealistic and impractical — but likely be pressure to replace Selmayr potentially dangerous because it to provide geographic balance and one you want in charge when events fuels anti-EU backlash. Criticism, no temper Berlin’s influence. take a dangerous turn. He and Junck- matter how fierce, has never troubled No one expects Selmayr to go er will seek to continue to play that Selmayr much, evidenced in how he quietly into retirement. The secre- role even as the political campaigning brushed aside the denunciations of tary-general regards himself as one overshadows them. Selmayr is the his promotion. The coming year will of the “adults in the room” — some- main force preparing emergency con- test that approach. n

POLITICO 28 27 IN HIS WORDS

First as campaign manager, then as chief of staff, now as the European Commission secretary-general, Martin Selmayr has been the architect and implementer of Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker’s vision for the European Union. He was a champion of the so-called Spitzenkandidat — or lead candidate — system that brought his boss to power and then established and administered what the two men describe as “a political Commission.”

In these excerpts from a conversation with POLITICO, the Commission’s top civil servant describes what it was like to participate in negotiations with Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras during the euro crisis and former British Prime Minister David Cameron prior to the Brexit referendum. He also lays out his plans for the final months of the Juncker Commission, ponders the challenges that will face its successor and addresses speculation about his own political future. His words have been edited for length.

ON A ‘POLITICAL COMMISSION’

This idea of the political Commission means that the leadership is political, and that means, yes, the brilliant civil service of the European Commission gives advice to the political leader but the final decision [rests with him]. When I see a political file here, the first thing I make sure is that President Juncker and the College sees this because it’s their decision. They are elected. That’s what we have done over the last years.

ON THE JUNCKER COMMISSION’S FINAL LEGISLATIVE GOALS

The Commission has delivered. We have made 100 percent of the proposals that we have promised. But this doesn’t help anybody because previous Commissions were very happy to sit back and say: “We have done our job.” We have at the moment pending before Parliament and Council 280 legislative files. Of those, 89 have been declared priorities of Parliament and Council, which gives you a certain indication of whether there will be de- livery by the end of the mandate. I would say at the moment every two days we conclude another important file, and if this rhythm continues, then I am very confident that this phase of delivery will work.

28 POLITICO 28 ON THE SPITZENKANDIDAT SYSTEM

I am very convinced that the next presi- dent of the Commission will be a Spitzen- kandidat. I am firmly, firmly convinced. And this time, it’s interesting, there are so many lead candidates, it is actually much more likely than last time. Last time, when I said this about the same time, ahead of the previous mandate, people looked at me and said, “Poor guy, send him to the lunatic asylum.”

ON HIS PROFESSIONAL FUTURE, INCLUDING SPECULATION HE WILL BECOME AN AMBASSADOR

I am an official of the European Commis- sion. Why should I change from Brussels to somewhere else? Then to go to London? Come on, this is a bit absurd.

ON CHALLENGES FOR THE NEXT COMMISSION

What will be the biggest challenge for the next Commission is to establish the European Union as an even stronger player in this even more multipolar world. The EU, in the next five years, will have to see how to bring us together to focus on those policies that will make the European Union a stronger actor in the world.

ON WHAT HE LIKES ABOUT WORKING AT THE COMMISSION

To work in the teams. All these people who work here, different nationalities, who have fun together even though they work very hard. I would even say these long night negotiations with our Greek friends, who at the beginning were not friends. The Tsipras team, at the beginning they were extremely hostile. And then when you spend three months, four months togeth- er, every night in negotiations, then there is something that brings about respect and also friendship. It was even fun the negotiations with Cameron’s teams on the new settlement. We spent nights together. We worked day and night on that one. And at the end, you look into the eyes, you shake hands and say, “We have done a good deal for both sides.” You respect each other. This is a great thing to work here. The European Union is a peace project. It is also a peace project on working together for common solutions in difficult situations. People that 100 years ago were shooting each other in trenches, sitting together now, and working on texts, on agreements, respect each other — even though they sometimes are angry with each other. And then at some point, after many nights, they come to conclusion. That I think is some- thing that is rewarding. n

PHOTOGRAPHS BY MAURO BOTTARO/EUROPEAN COMMISSION (ABOVE) AND FREDERICK FLORIN/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES POLITICO 28 29 30 DOER 4 Tiirmaa-Klaar Heli H first sophisticated cyber assault. assault. cyber sophisticated first Russia’s be to considered is what of site the was Estonia enthusiasm, tech famous country’s the to addition In weight. its above Tallinn punches decided countries for support. un lobbying be will Tiirmaa-Klaar like the United Nations, where diplomats at competing strategies submitted have sides Both online. rights human while undermining protections for hacking activities and cybercrime, to crack down on state-sponsored countries for harder it make will says cyber conflict thatTiirmaa-Klaar a differentapproach to regulating Moscow and Beijing, who advocate by led Organization Cooperation Shanghai members of the so-called are other the On opposition. political domestic and states other attack vulnerabilitiesand to software malware botnets, use states how on limits strict set to proposing space, rules of non-proliferation in cyber countries, who are advocating for EU large and U.S. the notably West, and her alliesTiirmaa-Klaar in the says. she split,” be will it whether or open, internet global the keep to how is 10 years to five next the for flow of information. “The challenge free the suppress to law international online, while ensuring they can’t use aggression and war of acts mitting governmentsrepressive from com Hercyberspace. ambition: to stop in do can’t and can countries what over abattle of forefront she’s the at THE CYBER DIPLOMATTHE POLITICO 28 POLITICO Cybersecurity is an areaCybersecurity where are debate the of side one On for cybersecurity, ambassador-at-large As Estonia’s first conflict. cyber of rules the write to wants eli Tiirmaa-Klaar ESTONIA - - - ernment networks, newspapers and ernment and newspapers networks, gov Banks, attack. large-scale under Russian soldier, the came country a of statue abronze of relocation the over 2007,In controversy amid whether it will be split.” or open, internet global the keep 10 years how is to for the next five to challenge “The

- says. n says. she increasing,” is Russia in readiness keep in mind that armament and haveto “We sights. its in be should believes Tiirmaa-Klaar who a secret it’s not but used, be to yet has sure mea The acyberattack. to response in sanctions impose to bloc the allow would that measures place in put she diplomat, cybersecurity EU’sthe first later,as and team, policy cyber first NATO’s of part was She diplomacy. cyber of field the in heavy-hitter Kremlin. to the attributed that attack orchestrated Tallinn soon an by hit were infrastructure internet Tiirmaa-Klaar is Estonia’s - 5 DOER

Yulia Tymoshenko

THE SHAPESHIFTER

UKRAINE

kraine’s future is again bound up in the U political ambitions of Yulia Tymoshenko. The fate of the two-time prime minister and her country are once more tightly woven together — like the blonde halo braid that made her an international icon. Only this time, Ukraine is at war, and that means Tymoshenko’s third run for president could have implications far beyond her country’s borders, po- tentially rewriting relations between Russia and the West and unbalancing the geopolitical order. Her enemies and critics are terrified at the prospect that she will fulfill her ambition of grabbing her country’s top job. Long Ukraine's most compelling political figure, she’s a household name, known sim- ply as Yulia. Instantly recognizable, she’s also unpredictable, a mercurial and opportunistic shapeshifter who has veered from arch-Ukrainian nationalist to Kremlin partner and back. Nobody knows where Tymoshen- ko, 58, might take Ukraine. If she wins, it will be up to her to end the tiny village of Studenytsya, about a war with Russia. Responsibility for “I have no doubt four-hour drive from Kiev, the larger, restoring peace to Europe will be in that in 2010 we won worldwide consequences of her her hands. “I have this feeling that campaign could hardly seem further the historical moment for correct, the presidential away. profound change in Ukraine has just election. Because In a town where many houses still arrived,” she says. don’t have running water, in an econ- Indeed, many Ukrainians are fed today we see in the omy crushed by a collapsed currency up, eager for change. But in what case of Manafort, we and soaring inflation, in a war-tired direction — toward the EU and NATO, country plagued by the corrupt as she now promises on the campaign see a book of black legacy of Soviet communism, Tymos- trail; in the direction of Moscow, as accounting … how false henko is campaigning on bread-and- she has been accused of doing in the butter: education, pensions, jobs, past; toward peace with Russia; or it was, how much the the cost of gas and electricity, health into all-out war — is anybody’s guess. people’s choice was care and, of course, the fight against As she speaks to a gathering of corruption. s Ukrainians in a schoolhouse in the distorted, crushed.” “If the country doesn’t pay enough

POLITICO 28 31 Tymoshenko to a teacher, it means the country but that hardly seems a liability in a with happy families,” she tells the speaks with isn’t paying enough for its future,” country long jaded by broken promis- appreciative audience in Studenyt- locals after she tells her listeners, which include es and craving even the thinnest rays sya. “I know how to make it. I will do presenting more than a few village grandmas in of hope. everything I can, but it depends on “The New colorful headscarves. She will rebuild the nation’s econ- you.” Course of The trademark braid is gone now. omy, but defy Ukraine’s big creditors Tymoshenko's most compelling — Ukraine” Tymoshenko wears her hair pulled — notably the International Monetary and most contradictory — message is in Lviv in back tight in a long pony tail thrown Fund — by reversing steep increases a promise of systemic change, some- November. over her left shoulder. Large oval in household gas tariffs. thing she would deliver as Ukraine’s eyeglasses give her a bookish air, She will work to reopen long-shut- first woman president. “Believe me, softening her image, making her tered factories that have no chance for 17 years I was fighting the sys- seem more approachable, less rar- of viability, and bring medical clinics tem,” she says. “There are changes ified celebrity. She frequently hugs to every town and village at a time that every one of us needs.” her supporters, who call her by first when experts say Ukraine should be After serving twice as prime minis- name but often add her patronymic consolidating local governments. ter in the first decade of the centu- out of respect: “Yulia Volodymiriv- She will make peace with Russia ry, Tymoshenko was jailed for two na.” Answering questions after her from a position of strength and put and a half years for embezzlement speech, she touches a pensioner on Ukraine on the path to membership in and abuse of office by her nemesis, the arm. both the EU and NATO. former President Viktor Yanukovych, Much of her campaign platform “I want with my team, and all after losing a close race to him in is preposterously contradictory — Ukraine, to build a happy country 2010. (The West said the charges

32 POLITICO 28 PHOTOGRAPH BY SPUTNIK VIA BELGA were political retribution). She lost made a fortune in the ruthless and Tymoshenko says the truth is Tymoshenko again in 2014 to the candy magnate corrupt natural gas business. She exactly the opposite; it’s clear to her presented a Petro Poroshenko, just three months was nicknamed “the gas princess.” now that the 2010 election was stolen similar plan after emerging from prison. Her former business partner and from her — by Yanukovych who fled for Ukraine’s For months now, polls have political ally, Pavlo Lazarenko, who to Russia; by his consultant Paul future in Kiev shown her as the front-runner in also served a stint as prime minister, Manafort, who received illicit cash in September. an election to be held March 31, far was convicted in the United States of payments, went on to become U.S. ahead of other candidates, including money laundering and other charges President Donald Trump’s campaign President Poroshenko. But her very related to the embezzlement of some manager and is now jailed in the presence in the campaign — indeed $200 million from the Ukrainian U.S.; and by their Russian financial her stubborn refusal to exit the po- Treasury. backers. litical stage after winning just 12.8 Tymoshenko was implicated but “I have no doubt that in 2010 we percent of votes in the last election never charged in some of Lazaren- won the presidential election,” she — raises questions about whether ko's crimes. Her opponents view her said. “Because today we see in the anything has changed, or ever will at best as a fixture of the country’s case of Manafort, we see a book of change, in Ukraine even after the long-corrupt, oligarchic system, and black accounting … how false it was, upheaval of the Orange Revolution at worst as a secret ally of the Krem- how much the people’s choice was in 2004-2005 and the Maidan Revo- lin, intent on aiding Russian Presi- distorted, crushed.” lution in 2013-2014. dent Vladimir Putin in his quest to Much will depend on which Like other big sharks in Ukrainian subjugate Ukraine in a rebuilt Russian version of Tymoshenko turns out s business and politics, Tymoshenko Empire. to be the real one. Western pow-

PHOTOGRAPH BY PAVLO GONCHAR/SOPA IMAGES VIA BELGA POLITICO 28 33 The braid ers, particularly the U.S., worked er-in-chief, a man, but look at how the Like her or not, Tymoshenko is is gone, but aggressively to prevent her return to servicemen live,” she says. “I want defining the presidential race. she's not: politics after her release from prison to tell you that I, as a woman, would “Just think how they put me in Tymoshenko in 2014, seeing her as an obstacle to never allow, and will not allow it in prison,” she tells the villagers in with her reforms. my lifetime. There will be a very tight Studenytsya. “I am not part of the husband, Today, one of her stronger argu- order in all that concerns the welfare, system. I wouldn’t let you down.” Oleksandr, at a ments is the assertion, disputed by financing and development of the She was imprisoned not because polling station few, that Poroshenko has failed to army.” she gave Putin and Russia a sweet- in 2015 for deliver on his promises, most of all The Minsk peace agreement — heart deal to sell gas to Ukraine at in- local elections. to end the war. There has long been between Ukraine and Russia and flated prices, as Yanukovych claimed, a joke in Ukraine that in the country’s under the auspices of the Organiza- but because she had dared stand up ruthless male-dominated politics, tion for Security and Co-operation to Moscow. Tymoshenko is the only one who has in Europe — may have helped limit A 15-minute drive away, in Zhyto- balls. For her part, she says her coun- casualties, she says, but it is far more myr, the regional capital, protesters try should be eager to elect a woman beneficial to Russia and the West are waiting for Tymoshenko at her as head of its armed forces. and contrary to Ukraine’s national next campaign stop — a speech to “Today, we have a male command- interests. She adds she will be able to teachers in the local symphony hall. er-in-chief and a male president, and secure a peace deal, and even restore Several hold up a huge banner show- corruption in the army has reached relations with Russia — just as France ing a picture of Tymoshenko without already tragic proportions,” she says. and Russia restored relations with her braid. “Old song,” the banner “Today we have the command- Germany after World War II. says. “New hairstyle.” n

34 POLITICO 28 PHOTOGRAPH BY SERGEY AVERIN/RIA NOVOSTI VIA BELGA 6 DOER

Mark Carney

THE STABILIZER

CANADA

f Brexit doesn’t capsize the British economy, I it’ll be in no small part thanks to Mark Carney. The governor of the Bank of England has been one of the loudest voices warn- ing about the dangers of the United Kingdom crashing out of the Europe- an Union without an agreement. Al- though he so far has shied away from any solid forecasts about the impact of a no-deal Brexit, he warned it is “quite an extreme” and “highly undesirable” scenario that would result in a hike in inflation worse than that caused by the post-referendum dive in sterling, thanks to the added impact of higher trading barriers and possible supply disruptions. All that would translate into a squeeze on real household incomes. “Parties should do all things to avoid it,” Car- ney said last summer. Warnings like these have put the 53-year-old Canadian economist on the political front line — his assess- ments dismissed by his critics as scaremongering. The Tory Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg has called Carney “the enemy of Brexit” and “the high having previously announced he’d priest of Project Fear.” The Bank of Carney’s defenders step down in June. England was lambasted after the point out that it is And if the U.K. does leave the EU Brexit vote for gloomy forecasts without a deal, it will be up to Carney predicting a recession that never likely the Bank of to guide the economy through the happened. But Carney’s defenders England’s forceful choppy waters. In preparation for point out that it is likely the Bank of such a scenario, Carney has worked England’s forceful intervention into intervention into the with European officials to make sure the economy that prevented the economy prevented a financial firms don’t face a cliff edge bank’s predictions from materializing. and that contracts can continue to Once the U.K. leaves, it will be recession. be serviced. He also required British again up to the Bank of England to banks to run stress tests to ensure smooth the journey to any sunny up- they’re prepared for “severe, but lands of Brexit. Even if the U.K. ben- reorients itself, which Carney has plausible” financial turbulence. “The efits from the freedom to make new highlighted as a big job ahead. At the financial system will be ready for that trade deals, there will inevitably be a request of the government, he has undesirable and still unlikely possibil- period of adjustment as the economy extended his term to January 2020, ity,” Carney said last summer. n

POLITICO 28 35 36 DOER 7 Nowacka Barbara B POLITICO 28 POLITICO increasingly authoritarian “Of stance. its as describe they what and Justice in common: opposing Law and have they cause the to comparison decided their differencespale in from Nowacka’s stance. pro-choice himself distance to quick been has ic Platform leader Schetyna Grzegorz Indeed, Civ supporters. conservative with more her coalition partners’ uneasily sits that —aposition laws abortion Poland’s up tighten to forts government’sand Justice party ef Law right-wing the against protests massive the of organizers leading Kaczyński. Lech President Polish including aboard, 96 all killing 2010, in Russia Smolensk, in land to airplane that while crashed trying politicians invited onto the ill-fated onewas of a group of opposition She Alliance. Left Democratic nist ex-commu the by led government acoalition in 2004-2005 from ister prime deputy as who min served activist afeminist was ga-Nowacka politics. Her mother Izabela Jaru Polish in brands higher-profile the of one is she but small, be may party Nowacka’s involved. parties the of Platform. and the far-larger, center-right Civic economically liberal Modern Party the spectrum: political the traditional of side other the on parties two to hitched her small left-wing grouping she October, late in elections ipal munic Polish the of Ahead purity. THE BRIDGE BUILDER BRIDGE THE But ultimately, the parties’ leaders leaders parties’ ultimately, the But the of one also was 43, Nowacka, The talks weren’t for easy any ahead of ideological politics practical put year. this She politician left-wing aPolish for something unusual arbara Nowacka did POLAND ------ward alliance is known, within came awk the as Coalition, Citizens The Nowacka. says media,” the to access and election free courts, dent governments with free and indepen Poland is in the hands of democratic happen can freedoms when personal about but these disagreements disagreements, big face we course, country?” semi-authoritarian a or country democratic “Will we be a So far, the strategy has worked. worked. has far, strategy So the PHOTOGRAPH BY MACIEJ LUCZNIEWSKI/NURPHOTO VIA BELGA VIA LUCZNIEWSKI/NURPHOTO BY MACIEJ PHOTOGRAPH - - against tightening abortion laws. tightening laws. against abortion out coming March, in Warsaw of streets the hit opposite, Protesters, more.” groupingslarger do can much Poland, have in we system electoral the with Justice and Law against win to order “In Nowacka. country?” says ic or country a semi-authoritarian ademocrat be we Will choice: the 2020. “Today we’re standing before in vote apresidential and elections European and national parliamentary sition ahead hopes of next year’s oppo —boosting elections local 21 October the in PiS of distance spitting n

- -

Intelligently Connecting Everyone and Everything to a Better Future

gsma.com/betterfuture 8 DOER

Miriam Dalli

THE ECO-WARRIOR

MALTA

f Brussels puts in place tough greenhouse gas I limits for cars and vans next year, it will be in no small part thanks to Miriam Dalli. By building alliances among left-lean- ing and Green parties, the Maltese politician pushed through stiff emissions targets in the European Parliament — overcoming opposition from the European People’s Party, the assembly’s biggest group, and fierce lobbying from the German car industry. Now the Socialists & Democrats MEP is representing the Parliament in politically charged negotiations with the European Council, where national governments advocate a lighter touch. Carmakers have reacted fiercely to Dalli’s proposed limits, calling them “aggressive” and warning that they will force “the in- dustry into a dramatic transformation in record time.” Dalli, 42, says that’s exactly what she wants: a gearshift in Europe’s car industry. “I stand firmly for what I believe in,” she says. “I will continue working hard to make sure that at the election to continue her environmen- end of the day we will have a strong Carmakers have tal campaign, pushing the message legislation that actually delivers reacted fiercely to that the shift toward clean energy environmental, health, consumer and and transport technologies is good economic benefits.” Dalli’s proposed limits, for jobs, not only for the climate. Her effort has undoubtedly warning that they will “Voters care about the issues that benefited from a rapidly changing make a difference in their lives,” she industrial and political landscape. force “the industry says. Rising transport emissions threaten into a dramatic Tough emissions standards for to undermine the EU’s climate targets vehicles “is an issue that can have a in the coming decades. And with transformation in direct impact on the air they breathe, China pushing ahead in the develop- record time.” their health, the prices of the cars ment of electric cars, Europe is at risk they buy, their future and present of losing the global technology race jobs, the competitiveness of our over battery-driven vehicles. A string plagued car sector. economies,” she adds. “When things of scandals have also done much to Dalli, a former television journalist, are communicated well, people do reduce the lobbying heft of Europe’s plans to use next year’s European care.” n

POLITICO 28 39 40 DOER 9 Prins Ronald R measures against cyberattacks on on cyberattacks against measures oversee also will Prins Council, toral to.” yes saying they’re what know always don’t they “because shots without him around, he says, call to dare don’t they him have told judges, both committee, the on peers two His said. he possible,” what’s of havealso a technical understanding you but this, at look jurists only not that “It’s essential desk. Prins’ pass first must surveillance or hacking online for request Any agencies. by the intelligence Netherlands’ spying cyber on ministry interior the with charged committee advising member oferful the three-person veillance powers. sur online state’s the expanding of households, he was a chief advocate 8million country’s the into beamed shows talk on guest Aregular ment. forgence the service Dutch govern intelli parallel as a served that firm turned-hacker ran a cybersecurity the mathematician- decades, jokes. Prins convenient,” —“How restaurant the opposite right sat Embassy U.S. the years, 60 almost For eavesdrop.” to place favorite services’ security the be to used “It spies. of share its than more Prins, says —and, royal the occasional civil artists, servants, diplomats, politicians, clientele: its for capital political Dutch the in mous fa is eatery The room. wood-paneled — and sizes up the other diners in the THE SPY’S SPY SPY’S THE POLITICO 28 POLITICO With a seat on the country’s Elec country’s the on aseat With pow most the he’sNow arguably For know. to He’s aposition in THE NETHERLANDS center of The Hague” very “the as describes restaurant the waiter —a Posthoorn de Bodega at seat his into slips Prins onald

------two of the largest dark-web market dark-web largest the of two down take to authorities U.S. with cow’s Square. Red Mos near building their in mounted video cameras the closed-circuit taking over their computers and even the infamous Russian hacker group, Bear, Cozy penetrated had it revealed Earlier this year, Dutch intelligence cyberintelligencepowerful powers. most West’s the of one becoming fast is country the when atime at of digital in security the Netherlands, position puts him at the center nerve election. European year’s next Dutch cyber police have worked have worked police cyber Dutch The 49-year-old former hacker’s PHOTOGRAPH BY MACIEJ LUCZNIEWSKI/NURPHOTO VIA BELGA VIA LUCZNIEWSKI/NURPHOTO BY MACIEJ PHOTOGRAPH - - with custom encryption. secrets state secure to government Dutch the with contracts from came revenue company’s the of One-third banksas and other large companies. well as governments, to security ing private cyberintelligence firm provid Fox-IT, ran he a decades, two nearly For doing. Prins’ is spooks Dutch of tion of Chemical Weapons. Prohibi the for Organization the hack by Russian intelligence to agents hadagencies fended off an attempt announced the country’s intelligence And in October, Dutch authorities goods. illicit in trading the for places To a large extent, the rising profile profile rising the To extent, alarge - - “YOU CAN VIOLATE SOMEONE’S PRIVACY

AS LONG AS THE SAFEGUARDS ARE PROPERLY SET IN THE LAW.”

Before founding Fox-IT, Prins spent providing intelligence agencies with who have fears also make a lot of a short stint working for the Dutch new hacking powers in 2002. And last noise,” he says. “You can violate General Intelligence and Security Ser- year, the Dutch parliament adopted a someone’s privacy, as long as the vice (AVID), where he felt his efforts new law, expanding the government’s safeguards are properly set in the were unduly constrained by the law ability to hack into computers and law.” — more so, it turns out, than when carry out mass surveillance. Dutch citizens, he says, are in he set up his own firm. “It’s bonkers Prins — who started his current safe hands: his. “No one can just that you could do more as a private job last April after selling Fox-IT for march over and tell me: ‘You have to company than as police,” he says. €133 million to the British firm NCC approve this or else you’re endan- As Dutch authorities took up Group in 2015 — dismisses critics who gering national security.’ To them I legislation on cybersecurity, Prins ad- accuse him of championing measures say: Bugger off, I’ll make up my own vised AVID’s lawyers. His input led to that undermine civil liberties. “Those mind.” n

POLITICO 28 41

Has the German left found its answer to right-wing nationalism?

THE NEW DIVIDE THE NEW DIVIDE BY ZIA WEISE

PHOTO-ILLUSTRATION BY ANTHONY GERACE HAS THE GERMAN LEFT FOUND ITS ANSWER TO RIGHT-WING NATIONALISM? HISTORIANS TRYING TO TRACE THE COLLAPSE of Germany’s Social Democrats would do well to look at the neighborhood of Haid- hausen in central Munich. For centuries, the area was known as the “poorhouse” of the Bavarian capital; after post-war reconstruction, it became a dilapi- dated workers’ quarter, described as a “district of broken glass” for its rundown condition. “About half of all apartments had no bathroom and no hot water,” the magazine Der Spiegel wrote in 1980. Even fewer had access to central heating. Over the past few decades, however, the neighborhood has flourished — thanks in no small part to a large-scale redevelopment plan initiated by the SPD-led city government in the early 1970s. Gentrification has taken hold. Now, residents are younger and rents are higher than the Munich average. Trendy cafes, expensive bicycles and organic shops cluster around the district’s picturesque squares. Given Haidhausen’s history, it’s no surprise that the Social Demo- crats were the dominant party in this area for decades — at least until recently. In Bavaria’s state election in October, the SPD suffered a colossal defeat in the Munich-Mitte constituency to which Haidhausen belongs, its vote share shrinking by two-thirds. Instead, the constit- uency’s residents flocked to the Greens, handing the former protest party a near-majority with 42.5 per- cent of the votes. In an election that saw the SPD fall below 10 percent in Bavaria for the first time since 1893, Haidhau- sen’s shift of allegiance is the latest example of what analysts say is a broad realignment of the politi- cal landscape in Germany and in Europe. The transformation of Haidhau- sen is mirrored in neighborhoods, cities and even entire countries across the Continent. Not every corner of the European Union has become this wealthy or gentrified, but living standards have risen ev- erywhere; the vast majority of EU residents now live in housing with a private bathroom. The tradition-

Robert Habeck (white shirt, rear), co-leader of the German Greens, and its top Bavarian candidate, Ludwig Hartmann, dive into the crowd to celebrate the party’s performance in the October election.

44 POLITICO 28 al working class has shrunk, the saw the Greens as her only option. proportion of well-educated, urban “They are the only ones who have voters has surged — and, partly as a liberal refugee policy,” she says. a result, social democratic parties “Merkel’s sentence from 2015, that are crumbling. ‘We can do it,’ the Greens are the In the wake of this change, the only ones who take it seriously.” once stark left-right divide across socio-economic lines that defined THE GREEN SURGE COULD NOT European politics for more than a HAVE HAPPENED without the col- century is crumbling. In its place, lapse of the SPD. In the birthplace a new battleground is emerging of social democracy, the SPD held as electorates split along lines of out longer than likeminded parties identity and culture. in other places in Europe. But its Until now, this new divide has decline reaches back decades. In manifested itself most prominently a way, social democracy became a in populist parties on the extreme victim of its own success. right, like Alternative for Germany The SPD is Germany’s oldest (AfD). The party’s dramatic rise is existing party. Since taking on its already reshaping that part of the current name in 1890, it has dipped political spectrum from the fringes below 20 percent in nationwide to the center, as moderate conser- elections only once, in 1933; the vatives try to stop hemorrhaging party was banned by the new Nazi voters by placing greater emphasis government shortly after. — and in some countries shifting to After the war, the SPD became the right — on identity issues like Germany’s leading left-wing force, cultural heritage and immigration. locked in a battle with the cen- On the left, a corresponding ter-right CDU. After abandoning its phenomenon has been slow to Marxist tenets in 1959, drawing up emerge. But the Greens’ strong plans to reform rather than abolish showing in Bavaria suggests a capitalism, the party gradually countermovement may be taking expanded beyond its working-class shape. In one of Germany’s most roots. prosperous states, the Greens won Reinvented, the party attracted 18 percent of the vote and became centrist and middle-class voters, the second-largest party. It then leading to a series of SPD victories achieved a similar feat in the neigh- in the 1970s. Back in opposition in boring state of Hesse, where it won the 1980s and ’90s, the party led 20 percent of the vote. regional governments in several In early November, the Greens states. The SPD governed once overtook the rapidly deflating SPD more between 1998 and 2005, to- in nationwide opinion polls. One gether with the Greens. (As junior survey put the party’s support at 24 coalition partners, the Greens were percent, just three points below that weaker and less influential than of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Chris- now; this seven-year period was tian Democratic Union. In a snap their first and so far only time in election, such a result would estab- power.) lish the Greens as Germany’s largest But even in the SPD’s 1970s left-wing force — an enormous leap heyday, its core base was already for the once marginal party. eroding. The structure of Germa- In the minds of many voters, the ny’s economy was changing, and Greens have established them- with it the country’s workers. selves as the polar opposite of the The problems the SPD was AfD and those who adopt a similar founded to solve were largely being rhetoric. “I didn’t have to think consigned to the past. Many of its about it very long, it was crystal proposals have not just been adopt- clear,” says Doris Langer, 45, of ed by parties across the political her decision to vote Green in the spectrum; they have largely been Bavarian election. The commu- implemented. Over the last centu- nications specialist from Munich ry, changes in education, health used to think of herself as largely care and social security — reforms apolitical and has voted for various long advocated by social demo- center-left and center-right parties cratic parties — raised the living in the past. standards of millions of Europeans, But when Bavaria’s ruling lifting them into the middle class. Christian Social Union, the CDU’s “The traditional basis of left- sister party, shifted rightward — wing politics, the manual or particularly on migration, a subject semi-skilled workers, they don’t she cares about deeply — Langer exist anymore in Western society.

PHOTOGRAPH BY KARL-JOSEF HILDENBRAND/DPA VIA BELGA POLITICO 28 45 At least not at the level they did — from migration and multicultur- before,” says Jan Rovny, a political alism to climate change, Europe- scientist at Sciences Po in Paris. an integration and international “If they do exist, they are highly trade — have become subjects of skilled and are paid close to the fierce political and societal debate. median wage.” (Today’s working Analysts have given many names poor, more often found in precar- to the opposing sides: cosmopoli- ious service industry jobs than tanism versus communitarianism, factories, are increasingly flocking open versus closed, liberal versus to the far right.) authoritarian. In part for this reason, the SPD “Do I see myself as a winner pivoted toward the center in the or loser of modernization? How first part of this century under the do I see migration? Do I see it as leadership of Gerhard Schröder a necessity to let in those seeking to appeal to liberal progressives. protection or work, do I accept Much like the British Labour Party a heterogeneous society? Or do under Tony Blair, Schröder’s Social I want societies to remain rather Democrats enacted market-friendly homogeneous and closed off? policies, including drastic cuts to These are the new questions,” says the welfare state. Münch of the Academy for Political “The SPD’s core base still hasn’t Education. “This conflict runs right forgiven them that,” said Ursula through society, and not only in Münch, director of the Academy Germany.” for Political Education in Tutzing, Across Europe, a new right Bavaria. has firmly established itself along The economic downturn of 2008 the new divide. Some, like Viktor further undermined trust in the Orbán’s Fidesz party in Hungary party’s ability to protect employ- or the Law and Justice party in ees from market forces. Since the Poland, are in charge; others, like crisis, the SPD has been unable to Austria’s Freedom Party or Matteo win more than a quarter of votes Salvini’s League in Italy, govern as in federal elections, forcing it first part of a coalition. Still others, like into opposition and then, from far-right populists in Germany and 2013, into a “grand coalition” with the Netherlands, stir trouble from Merkel’s CDU that is unpopular the opposition benches. with many of its voters. The new left, however, has so Unhappiness with Germany’s far struggled to find its feet. “The two major parties is a leading driv- authoritarian side clearly has its er in the rise of both the Greens champions now, whether it’s Orbán and the AfD, analysts say. A third of or Marine Le Pen,” says Rovny, the SPD members opposed the party’s political scientist at Sciences Po. decision to join yet another coali- “It’s the other side that’s still being tion with the CDU earlier in 2018. formulated. It’s not clear yet who Svea Windwehr, a 26-year-old they are in the European theater.” student from Munich, thinks the What is clear: It’s not the Social SPD’s disappointing result in Bavar- Democrats, not in Germany nor ia is well deserved. An SPD voter elsewhere in Europe. and party member, she voted for Social democracy’s voters may the Greens in October. “The Greens have agreed on issues like the wel- got their ideas on digitization and fare state, but many of today’s most infrastructure across very well,” politically loaded issues pit them she says. “Those are topics I care against each other. The traditional about, but that alone wouldn’t have working class might be skeptical of been enough to vote for them. It migration and wary of putting jobs was also a vote against the SPD, at risk by shifting away from coal because of what went on in govern- mining, for example. But progres- ment.” sive, urban supporters are more likely to favor a generous refugee THE SPD’S BROAD BASE, ONCE policy and sharp cuts in green- AN ASSET when elections were house gas emissions. predominantly fought over ques- It’s perhaps not surprising that tions of economics and social jus- other parties are taking advantage tice, has now become a vulnerabili- of the void. In France, President ty as the party struggles to adapt to Emmanuel Macron has made a the emerging cultural divide. play to take up the liberal banner, As socioeconomic issues have declaring himself Orbán and Salvi- lost their salience, transnational ni’s chief opponent. In Germany, issues and questions of culture voters have turned to the Greens.

46 POLITICO 28 PHOTOGRAPH BY OMER MESSINGER/EFE VIA EPA In Luxembourg, Belgium and the Netherlands, Green parties have also gained support, but in much of Europe, the movement continues to struggle. In Germany, it remains to be seen whether the party will be able to cement its support and become the champion of Germany’s cos- mopolitan-liberal camp for years to come. After all, the party has risen to such heights before, after Japan’s Fukushima disaster in 2011. But there’s no denying the shift in the political landscape. “I expect this to be a very abiding feature in European politics,” says Rovny. “Only exactly how it will be formu- lated or how it will be competed over is hard to tell.”

IF THE GREEN SURGE DOESN’T RECEDE, it will change the face of the German left. The party’s program has un- doubtedly developed since its early days. Sustainability remains at its core, but today’s Greens no longer focus only on the environment; the party now addresses issues ranging from health insurance to domestic security. Crucially, the party’s prag- matic wing has taken over, moving the Greens closer to the center. Markus Busjan, 53, who runs a puppet theater in Haidhausen, says he feels the Greens have evolved along with their voters. “I grew up with the Greens,” he says. In his youth, he admired the party’s radi- cal spirit. “But now, like me, they’re more civil and gentler. They’ve managed an artful balancing act.” It would be a mistake, however, to see the party as simply filling the vacuum left behind by the SPD. Like the AfD — which has poached supporters not just from conser- vative defectors but also from the SPD’s working-class base — the Greens draw from both sides of the old divide. In Bavaria, the Greens gained 170,000 voters from the conser- vative CSU and 200,000 from the SPD; in Hesse, 142,000 SPD voters switched to the Greens, alongside 108,000 CDU voters. (In both states, however, their rise did more to re- structure the left than boost its seat

Andrea Nahles walks off stage after addressing the press the night of the Bavarian state election. Nahles had just seen exit polls and the final count was no better: The SPD finished with less than 10 percent of the vote.

POLITICO 28 47 ment and income are insecure] nor the lower middle class are in the Greens’ sights,” he notes. “They are aware that a sixth of the German population lives below the poverty threshold, but they don’t have a strategy to change that.” That’s why some lapsed SPD voters are reconsidering. Despite voting for the Greens in Bavaria, Svea Windwehr will likely vote for the SPD in the next federal elec- tion. “Looking at the challenges of the 21st century, there is a huge need for left-wing, social democrat policies in Germany. I don’t see the Greens filling this gap,” she says. The consequences of the new political divide reach beyond matters of policy and legislation. It makes governing more difficult. Striking compromises on econom- ic issues is easier than finding a middle ground on questions of identity, which tend to be all or nothing. “As we live in a fragmented, het- erogeneous society, compromise is necessary for a democracy to function,” says Uwe Jun, a political scientist at the University of Trier. “But when polarization is on the rise, that becomes harder.” For now, the Greens are surging ahead. Although all of Germany won’t turn as green as Haid- hausen, a recent Spiegel survey suggested the potential is there: Asked if they could imagine voting for the Greens, 47 percent of Germans said yes. After their party conference in mid-November, which began with a piano recital of Beethoven’s “Ode to Joy,” Ger- man newspapers even speculated whether the party’s co-leader Rob- ert Habeck could succeed Merkel as chancellor. But success could prove chal- lenging for the Greens as well. En- tering a coalition in the Bundestag would test the longevity of their rise. Although the party works with Katharina numbers, as the AfD also gained.) see themselves as “winners” of both center-left and center-right Schulze, the The Greens are not as broad a modernization. The party has also parties in regional governments, it 33-year-old church as the Social Democrats struggled to make inroads in rural currently benefits from not having co-leader of used to be. Most analysts find it areas and eastern German states. to make difficult decisions on a the Bavarian difficult to imagine the party win- This doesn’t mean the Greens national level. Greens, is seen ning more than 30 percent of the and their supporters have no inter- As part of a governing coalition, as a rising star national vote, as the SPD did until est in social and economic fairness. they could well face the same fate in the party. the 2008 crisis. Liberal-cosmopolitan voters do as the SPD. “We’ve seen that a new Significantly, the Greens are not expect the state to take responsibil- government will always be show- the party of the socially or econom- ity for citizens’ welfare and social ered with criticism and its popular- ically disadvantaged. Green voters security, says Gero Neugebauer, a ity falls fast,” says Jun. “The Greens tend to be better educated and political scientist at the Free Uni- would run the same risk.” younger than those of the SPD; their versity of Berlin. Germany’s cosmopolitan left median income is slightly higher. As “But neither workers nor the could find itself looking for a cham- per Münch’s definition, they would precariat [people whose employ- pion once again. n

48 POLITICO 28 PHOTOGRAPH BY CHRISTOF STACHE/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE VIA GETTY IMAGES DATA POINT The dreamers Do you talk politics 1 with family, friends?

Share of respondents to a Eurobarometer poll who said Garance they never discuss EU and national politics with family and friends: Pineau FRANCE France 2 Niklas Zennström

SWEDEN 3

59% 39% Era Never EU politics Never French Istrefi

KOSOVO Cyprus 4

Peter Vesterbacka FINLAND

5

38% 29% Şener Levent CYPRUS

Never EU politics Never Cypriot 6 Hungary Joana Vasconcelos PORTUGAL

7

23% 17% Ivan Krastev BULGARIA Never EU politics Never Hungarian

Austria 8

Dominik Feri CZECH REPUBLIC

9 23% 17% Never EU politics Never Austrian Guðrið Højgaard FAROE ISLANDS

POLITICO 28 49 50 DREAMER 1 Pineau Garance G results are in. are results the after day the for allies of search in to study the continental chessboard is —Pineau’s task election Parliament European year’s next in support their for voters ask crowds, the in hands for reach podium, the from expound to ers oth to it Leave important. most the of POLITICO 28 POLITICO but she’s inarguably one to conquerfort Europe, Emmanuel Macron’s ef er in French President play visible most the be arance Pineau may not FRANCE - - - the essence andthe the essence purpose of the redefine or define, to us allow must ropean Parliament. “The next months Eu the in influence exerting at aimed movement political apro-EU of ation the European project.” willing to join Macron and “rebuild or individual — — parties defectors European Union, looking for partners the criss-crossing fall the spent has the 42-year-old former civil servant Macron’s La République En Marche, Her pitch: Join Macron in the cre the in Macron Join pitch: Her for affairs European of head As - - PHOTOGRAPH BY JOEL SAGET/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES GETTY SAGET/AFP VIA BY JOEL PHOTOGRAPH with Pineau. Preparations for the EU parliament who is working closely French the of amember Anglade, dre inside the party,” says Pieyre-Alexan on move things makes and wheels the oils show. “She the ly leading she’s say quiet with she’s worked those of many but official, elected to reorient the European project.” fore have an immense responsibility there We nationalists. the by filled been has it and vacant, space this left have “We says. want,” we she Europe Pineau is a party operative, not an an not operative, aparty is Pineau THE OUTRIDERTHE - -

- s

“She oils the wheels of this year, she says. Macron has cast next year’s elec- and makes things move tion as a showdown between liberal- on inside the party.” ism and populism, but he also wants to use the occasion to replicate what Pieyre-Alexandre Anglade, a member he did in France and take a hammer to of the French parliament who is what he sees as an ossified political working closely with Pineau order. In particular, the goal is to break the dominance of the conservative Eu- ropean People’s Party in the European election “turn around Garance,” says Parliament. Jean Arthuis, a former French econo- While few are under the illusion my minister and a member of the Euro- that Macron will be able to repeat pean Parliament from a small centrist last year’s dominating performance, party that has been collaborating with En Marche is hoping to gather a host En Marche. of pro-EU MEPs big enough to make Nikola Donig, the secretary-gen- up the second-largest group in the eral of Austria’s liberal NEOS party European Parliament — ahead of the who has discussed an alliance with ailing Socialists. That would be enough Pineau, describes her as modest and to make the party a kingmaker in the practical. “She is one [of the few] in La negotiations to decide the next crop of République En Marche who sits down top European officials. with you for a structured talk, listens Macron has made that task more to your arguments and seems pre- difficult by refusing to officially join pared to acknowledge the differences any of Europe’s established political between France and other European families, but Pineau did travel, along countries,” Donig says. with Anglade and Panosyan, to Madrid “She asks focused questions and in November to seal an agreement seems to realize that ‘a little less con- with the Alliance of Liberals and versation, a little more action please’ Democrats for Europe at their annual is what potential partners are waiting conference. for,” he adds. “She gives her interlocu- Pineau is careful to stress that her tor the feeling she has what others still party is not joining ALDE, but Panosyan might lack: a plan.” received a standing ovation from the Trained in international and Euro- group’s assembled members when she pean law, Pineau, who studied in Au- said in a speech that En Marche would vergne in central France, spent most join ALDE in “a common front, a plat- of her career working on labor and form of self-evident policies pertaining social issues. As a deputy director for to democratic institutions, climate European and international relations change, social inclusion and collective at Medef, France’s biggest employer security.” En Marche, Pineau says, will federation, she took part in negotia- also be reaching out to socialist parties tions involving the EU and the world’s that share Macron’s vision. major labor organizations. En Marche’s long-term goal, Pineau Before being tapped for En Marche’s says, is also to revolutionize how European offensive, Pineau worked at politics is done inside the European France’s labor ministry, most recently Parliament. The institution is widely as diplomatic adviser to the minister, seen, particularly in France, as a place Muriel Pénicaud, a close Macron ally. to park idle or disgraced politicians It was in that position that she caught who have failed out of national politics. the eye of the French president’s EU The group is thus trying to recruit a adviser, Clément Beaune. The two fresh slate of candidates capable of worked together on one of Macron’s becoming experts in their field. flagship European files: the revision It’s perhaps unsurprising then that of the EU’s Posted Workers’ Directive, Pineau’s efforts are already getting which governs the conditions under pushback from some of the Parlia- which European employees can be ment’s current occupants. Some sent to work in another EU country. dismiss Macron’s strategy as too In her current role, Pineau works vague; others as not liberal enough. closely with Beaune, Anglade and “We will be following Pineau and En Astrid Panosyan, co-founder of En Marche’s work very closely,” said a Marche and a likely candidate for Eu- member of ALDE, “because we expect ropean Parliament. She will report to negotiations to be done with good Stéphane Séjourné, Macron’s recently liberal guidelines that we can all be installed campaign manager, who comfortable with.” will run the effort in France. Her team “We don’t want to be in a situation consists of five employees but is likely where Macron divides us,” the MEP to grow to about 20 people at the end said. n

PHOTOGRAPH BY GEOFFROY VAN DER HASSELT/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES POLITICO 28 53 54 DREAMER 2 Zennström Niklas N of high-profile scandals and re and scandals high-profile of aspate away. far too After never future.” the of part be can we that shows it Europe, For growth. and innovation drive you how important “It’s more houses. venture Europe’s of largest many to home London, west in offices ket fund’supmar his at coffee over says have,” you he unicorns many how entrepreneurial spirit. “It’s not about Tech than for its own, homegrown Big against back push to eagerness its for less known be day one may greener and pastures, that Europe that the Continent is headed toward 2016. on rise percent a32 $19.1 billion, record a hit industry startup region’s the in year last investment tech annual But producing digital beasts. these to comes it when China and States United the behind lags still Europe byAtomico. funded them of — many unicorns galloping of herds small to home is Continent Now, the billion. €1 than more at valued firms tech unicorns, or fledgling come so-called be had startups European few 2003, online communication company in off. pay to starting —is 2006 in co-founded he fund capital venture aLondon-based Atomico, at now and Skype at first drive — His technology. to comes it when stage global the on convince Europe that it compete can to trying 15years last the spent has the Swedish of co-founder Skype THE UNICORNTHE BREEDER POLITICO 28 POLITICO Dark clouds, however, are 52, Zennström, says a sign, That’s When Zennström the co-founded mop of blond hair, blond of mop shoulder-length almost an with tall ceedingly now. Ex stop Don’t for Europe: message a has Zennström iklas SWEDEN - - - - and the wider public, as well as as well as public, wider the and sector tech the between Trust, both Facebook. and Amazon Google, like giants digital American toward eyes skeptical casting are officials ropean world’s biggest tech companies, Eu companies, tech biggest world’s the of some against violations tax fines for antitrust and cord-breaking Commission.” the and tech European between dialogue more “We need - an entrepreneurial streak with an Commission.” European tech and the [European] between dialogue more need we that time the is “Now service. ing music-stream Spotify, the Swedish include members whose EUof firms Techropean Alliance, a trade group Eu the of president is who nnström, withengaged policymakers,” says Ze lives. everyday their in about digital technology’s intrusion Europeanseroding, as grow wary quickly is regulators, government executives industry between and Like many Swedes who balance balance who Swedes Like many haven’t we “As community, atech - - - embrace of a social safety net, Ze- be valued at billions, even before needed to compete globally. Founding nnström’s ethos is a blend of Silicon they are worth more than the pieces Still, there’s one area where the Skype partners Valley ruthlessness and European of paper they’re written on. That, Swedish entrepreneur’s legacy is Zennstrom, paternalism. For somebody from the he warns, hurts Europe’s ability to secure. Thanks in part to his efforts, above right, famously libertarian tech industry, attract the best talent, particularly there are far more European tech and Janus Friis the Swede is unusually ready to con- high-skilled executives from Ameri- entrepreneurs than when he started, in London in cede the need for better, if not more, can tech companies. some of whom are finally taking on 2004. government intervention — especially Another frustration: The Commis- the world, and winning. “He taught at the European level. “If we don’t sion’s attempts to create a so-called me that we had to up our game in the drive technology in the region,” he digital single market, or a borderless European tech ecosystem,” said Ilkka says in his lilted Swedish accent, “we online world where startups from Fin- Paananen, co-founder of Supercell, will be left behind.” land can effortlessly sell their wares the Finnish gaming giant behind His top bugbear? Overly complex to consumers in Portugal. After four the “Clash of Clans” franchise, in national tax systems that force years of effort, the Continent remains which Tencent, the Chinese tech startups to pay governments upfront as fragmented as ever, Zennström firm, bought a controlling stake for for so-called stock options, or shares says, making it difficult for local tech $8.6 billion. “All of us are following in in their firms that may eventually firms to gain the region-wide scale his footsteps.” n

PHOTOGRAPH BY MICHAEL LEWIS/CORBIS OUTLINE VIA GETTY IMAGES POLITICO 28 55

3 DREAMER

Era Istrefi

THE POP AMBASSADOR

KOSOVO

ra Istrefi is putting Kosovo on the map E — even if some don’t want it to be there. The 24-year-old pop singer from Pristina has en- joyed a swift international rise. After one of her early hits in Albanian went global and earned her a deal with a U.S. record label, she was tapped to co-write and perform the official song for this year’s football World Cup, “Live It Up,” along with American stars Nicky Jam and Will Smith. Ten years after Kosovo declared independence from Serbia, Istrefi is part of a new generation of artists and sports stars providing the terri- tory — and the Balkans — with an al- ternative image to one dominated by poverty, crime and corrupt politicians bickering over the future. While many of her contemporaries with Kosovan roots, like singer Rita Ora and Liver- pool footballer Xherdan Shaqiri, grew up in Western Europe, Istrefi is 100 percent homegrown — proof to her fans back home that local talent can break through abroad. Istrefi, whose musical style has been compared to Sia and Rihanna, nia gave her citizenship, allowing her aims to release her first album in 2019. to perform at the closing ceremony In person, she’s everything you might to a worldwide audience of millions. expect from a pop star — young, at- “Just the fact that I was there, it was tractive and glamorous, arriving for an enough of a political statement,” interview in a black denim jacket with she says over a late lunch in London, fake fur collar and cuffs in metallic where she is currently based. green. But she also arrives early, sans Istrefi did allow herself to get “a entourage, having arranged the meet- little political” on Instagram. She ing herself, via WhatsApp. made a hand gesture that represents Though she doesn’t sing about pol- a two-headed eagle — a symbol of itics, the battle over Kosovo’s future Albanian identity. (Most of Kosovo’s 2 threatened to ruin Istrefi’s big World million people are ethnic Albanians.) Cup moment. Russia, which does not She added the words “recognition recognize the territory, refused to for all, love for all countries” — a let her in with her Kosovan passport. plea for Kosovo to be accepted as an Fortunately, Kosovo’s neighbor Alba- independent state. n

PHOTOGRAPH COURTESY OF RCA RECORDS POLITICO 28 57 58 DREAMER 4 Vesterbacka Peter I destination for tourists and travelers Helsinki area, and Tallinn is a popular the in work currently Estonians of with nonchalance. Tens of thousands Vesterbacka talks about the plans single area. metropolitan a into ferry, by only linked currently Tallinn, and Helsinki countries, two the of capitals the transform to is Valley.” Silicon goal His a“Nordic of beginnings the as serve could that Helsinki in hub atechnology of tion erec the and people 50,000 house could that island artificial an create to plans includes that aproject for acenterpiece as serve will tunnel The project. infrastructure a simple says. future,” Vesterbacka the for something build and level tion ambi the up to “We’re aiming Japan. and France and the Seikan tunnel in Channel tunnel connecting England the competitors: nearest its as long as twice —nearly world the in longest the far by be would tunnel and railspeed freight passenger high- 103-kilometer The wall. the on screen alarge on them casting and forplans the project on his phone up 50, pulling Vesterbacka, says funds. public 2024,December without using any by Estonia to Finland from Finland of Gulf the under stretching tunnel ter underwa a€15-billion build to wants maker behind the international hit, game the Rovio, at officer marketing a whole new level. The former chief THE BORING VISIONARY BORING THE POLITICO 28 POLITICO It sounds like science fiction, but but fiction, science like sounds It beyond go dreams Vesterbacka’s “It’s about changing mindsets,” takes the ambition to to ambition the takes backa’s project next riers, Peter Vester breaking down bar about is Birds” “Angry game mobile f the FINLAND - - - - - would cut travel time from a90-min from time travel cut would says, he year. tunnel, The last port sinki was Europe’s busiestpassenger Hel why reason —abig Finland from towards this project: Let’s not waste waste Let’s not project: this towards philosophy simple haveavery “I China. toward reorients trade global as Europe for pad alaunching as Vesterbacka envisions his homeland ern country, and eastern most and north Union’s most European the is both Finland and Estonia. to talent and startups investments, companies, more attracting also rail, with the improved connections by minutes 20 around to ride ferry ute His ambitions are global. Finland Finland global. are ambitions His - - - lump sum. The majority of the funds, funds, the of majority The sum. lump rather than progressive stages, one in money raising astartup, mimicking is consortium The capitalist. venture a of logic the with project tunnel plans. that it is open to the entrepreneur’s and Finland’s government said has appealing more looks tunnel funded with state budgets tight, his privately version offering opening. a 2040 But funded apublicly with ring, the into hat his threw Vesterbacka before done,” he says. things get just instead and time Vesterbacka is approaching the well alive Talk was atunnel of “It’s about changing mindsets.”

he says, will be raised from China, expertise is not in construction but in fold, and even started designing and “You have where Vesterbacka has experience marketing — including the promotion testing the ticketing system for the to stand from his “Angry Birds” days doing of his own carefully curated personal trains. But the political realities of out,” says business and currently visits twice brand. He rarely appears in public the public sector have prevented him Vesterbacka, a month. Nordic pension funds have without his trademark uniform of from moving ahead at his preferred who would also expressed an interest in invest- jeans, a red hoodie, and a matching fast pace. certainly do ing in the project. Though privately pair of sneakers. “You have to stand His team has completed an just that if funded, Vesterbacka says the project out: personality, product, company, environmental impact study and are he’s able to will cooperate closely with regional everything,” he says, while flipping awaiting approval, but both gov- complete this authorities. through photos of himself glad-hand- ernments have also said that more project. The ambitious timeframe and Ves- ing with various world leaders and studies are needed before they can terbacka’s inexperience in building global elites — his red sweater give the green light to break ground. infrastructure has drawn its share of popping amid a sea of dark suits and “The more I’ve learned about how skeptics, who doubt that the project tuxedos. infrastructure projects are done, can be completed by 2024, if at all. Vesterbacka has brought tun- the more surprised I’ve been,” says There’s no questioning Vesterbac- nel boring machine suppliers and Vesterbacka, “and not in a positive ka’s entrepreneurial success, but his construction companies into the way.” n

RENDERING COURTESY OF FINEST TUNNEL PROJECT POLITICO 28 59

5 DREAMER

Şener Levent

THE BULLHORN

CYPRUS

riticizing Turkey is a risky undertaking if C you live within Ankara’s reach, as Şener Levent knows only too well. Bullet holes mark the entrance to Afrika, his Turkish Cypriot newspaper; hitmen have tried to kill him more than once. He keeps a gun by his desk, just in case. But Levent refuses to be silenced. Even after surviving a mob attack this year, he remains an outspoken pro- ponent of Cypriot reunification and a relentless critic of Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. And in 2019, he plans to take his fight to Brussels by running for a seat in the European Parliament, hoping to become the institution’s first Turkish Cypriot representative. It won’t be his first attempt. Levent, 70, also ran for the European election in 2014, winning about 1 per- cent of Cypriot votes. But he believes his chances are much better this time around — thanks to none other than Erdoğan. “After recent events,” Levent says, “there has been a lot of sympathy for us.” In January this year, Afrika ran a concerns about a long-term military Cypriot police stood by idly, Levent front-page headline typical for the presence in Syria. In Erdoğan’s eyes, recalls, responding only after the newspaper: “Another occupation Afrika had crossed a line. Respond- breakaway state’s president, Mustafa operation from Turkey,” it read, ing in a speech, he denounced the Akıncı, personally called on them to comparing Turkey’s incursion into newspaper as “cheap” and “nasty” intervene. Syria’s Afrin region to its 1974 military and told his supporters in North- Afrika’s editorial line does not invasion of Northern Cyprus. Levent ern Cyprus to “give the necessary reflect the majority view in Northern thought nothing of it. His newspa- response.” Cyprus, but the attack outraged its per frequently uses frank words to “He basically made us a target,” residents. Soon after the attack, describe the events that led to the is- Levent says. Soon after, a furious thousands of Turkish Cypriots took land’s division, which Turkish officials mob of several hundred people to the streets of northern Nicosia (and many Turkish Cypriots) prefer to gathered in front of Afrika’s offices to denounce Turkish repression and call a “peace operation.” and began hurling rocks through the Ankara’s attempts to stir up trouble. Erdoğan, however, was livid. newsroom windows. He heard shouts Akıncı criticized the newspaper’s Criticizing military operations breaks of “burn it down” as demonstrators headline but condemned the mob a taboo, and the Turkish govern- began breaking into the building violence. ment was also at pains to downplay (pictured opposite). The Turkish A few months later, Turkey filed

PHOTOGRAPHS BY BIROL BEBEK/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES POLITICO 28 61 a lawsuit against the newspaper’s staff; Levent responded by suing Erdoğan for incitement. “And I wrote a piece saying to Erdoğan: If you come to my court, I will come to your court,” he says with a mischie- vous smile. Levent clearly relishes being a thorn in Ankara’s side, a role Afrika has played for more than 20 years. The newspaper had been founded as Avrupa (“Europe”) in 1997; Levent had to rename it in 2001 after the Turkish Cypriot government forced its clo- sure. “I wanted to call it Yeni Avrupa, New Europe, but they did not give us permis- sion,” he says. “So, I called it Afrika because the law here is that of the jungle.” The newspaper’s founding mission, he ex- plains, is to write about the topics that the Turkish Cypriot press avoid covering. “Be- cause what is journalism?” Levent says. “As George Orwell said, it’s writing what other people don’t want to be written.” But Afri- ka’s outspoken stance comes with serious risks. Long before he upset Erdoğan, Levent was sued and arrested countless times; Avrupa’s printing offices were bombed twice in its four-year run. In 2011, a young man from Turkey dropped by Afrika’s Nicosia newsroom to kill Levent. The newspaper’s staff thwarted the attack by claiming that their editor was away; the frustrated would-be assassin fired his gun at the closed door and left. A similar incident occurred four months later. That’s when Levent began coming to work with a gun. On his editing desk, beside towering stacks of yellowing newspapers, he installed a CCTV screen; in the office hallway, the bullet holes left by the two gunmen are still visible. But it was Levent’s defiance of Erdoğan that raised his profile across the island and beyond. Now, he says, people on both sides of the United Nations-patrolled buffer zone recognize him on the streets. Even Brussels has taken note; in October this year, he was honored with the European Citizens’ Prize. Born in Nicosia when Cyprus was a British colony, Levent is entitled to Cypriot citizen- ship, which allows him to vote and compete in European elections. “I am a citizen of the Republic of Cyprus and the European Union, but I am still being governed and ruled by Turkey,” he says. If he is elected to the European Parlia- ment, he hopes to function as a “bridge” between the EU and Northern Cyprus and keep Cypriot reunification on the agenda in Brussels. Since peace talks between the two sides collapsed in 2017, the reconcilia- tion process has stalled. “I imagine a Cyprus that has no borders, no barricades,” Levent says. “I am always in support of a united Cy- prus. We’re Turkish or Greek Cypriot — but above everything else, we are Cypriots.” n

Hundreds of Erdoğan supporters gathered outside Afrika’s Nicosia office in January.

62 POLITICO 28

64 DREAMER 6 Vasconcelos Joana A from stainless steel cooking pots, a a pots, cooking steel stainless from made shoe heeled stiletto giant a Free.” includes It Break to Want “I titled is France, Strasbourg, in of Modern Art and Contemporary Museum the at now display on tion 2005 Venice Biennale. Her exhibi the at displayed tampons 25,000 a 6-meter-high chandelier made of international hit was “The Bride,” first Her political. subversively also —it’s tiles Portuguese multicolored with encrusted pool aswimming get to about is —Edinburgh whimsical That’s what interests me.” from within the European space. coming avoice be Ican and world the over all people with communicate Ican that is matters “What 46. celos, matter,” Vascon really says doesn’t “That metal. ceramics, — textiles, tradition craftwork of Portuguese surrealist, feminist and rooted in the iously baroque, as pop, described done.” is work dirty “the workshop where, one as aide puts it, uprattles from the ground-floor U.K.” “Anarchy the in Pistols’ Sex The LEDs. of thousands with sewn being and inflatablesheathes ofcloth silky ceramicsized wasps lace-wrapped out past wide-eyed walk students aroundspaces Europe. Visiting art public and galleries fill to destined electricians are busy finalizing pieces welders, engineers, crocheters and makers, embroiderers, carpenters, dress and architects 50 than more throbs with activity. Her team of THE VALKYRIETHE POLITICO 28 POLITICO While her work appear can Vasconcelos’ var been has art in Lisbon’s docklands Lisbon’sin docklands her as atelier serves grain warehouse that converted the work, her describes los s Joana Vasconce PORTUGAL ------a united Europe allows us to grow.” to us allows Europe a united different cultures.I’m an example that in move Ican Iam, that “As artist the even when frontiers close,” she says. heard be can that avoice are “We role. have acrucial artists says, she times, troubled In space.” European the in live to is cities between live to and cities, between live we cities, in live longer no “We says. she space,” cultural one is “Europe experience. by herstrengthened international perspective, European a distinctly has she says Vasconcelos Portugal, ing tentacles and polyps. undulat of sculptures textile mental —monu “Valkyries” Vasconcelos’ of 280 purple feather dusters and one sexually early work suggestive using Although her work is rooted in in rooted is work her Although n - - continents.” what makes us unique among the other lose we that lose we If movement. cultural and speech cultural of freedom “The OF BREXIT? THE EUFACES AS ARESULT WHAT ISTHEBIGGEST LOSS belt.) teacher.” black (She’s a3dan akarate been have Icould but artist, “I’m an YOURSELF.ABOUT SURPRISINGTELL USSOMETHING liberty.” and fraternity equality, Revolution: French the by them define “I OF “EUROPEAN VALUES?” WHAT ISYOUR DEFINITION

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BMD1800864 - Diplomatic sales_2019 - Serie 5_Polictico_277x230_BEUK.indd 1 5/11/18 12:14 66 DREAMER 7 Krastev Ivan I divide the decision-mak between growing the sore: open an aggravated isdiagnosis that the migrant crisis shifts. age’s epochal and losers” of “forgotten jority” the what he the calls “threatened ma of scholars perceptive more the of analysis him established has one as unorthodox often His loud. out ments argu his through think to seems but rarely remarks, on relies prepared phone. At public he appearances, amobile own even or media, social use doesn’t He nuance. political serious amore illustrate to ajoke tell often will he conversation, in playful; inevitable.” the ly become quick very can unthinkable “the that fact the him upon impressed says, he transform overnight. The experience, country his and collapse regime 1989, the he Communist witnessed in Sofia in student a university As experience taught has him otherwise. tainly remain unchanged. Krastev’s cer almost would it shaken, be might quo status the while that assuming and says, he granted,” for Union pean an Union apart. Europe the tear to potential the with one malaise, amodern of symptoms instead —are populism European of President Donald Trump, and the rise crisis, Brexit, the election of U.S. migration —the shocks isolated of aseries as regarded widely then warned that what had until been “After Europe,” the thinker Bulgarian THE ICONOCLAST THE POLITICO 28 POLITICO In Europe’s case, Krastev’s Krastev’s Europe’sIn case, and aphoristic is style Krastev’s Euro the taking still were “People short 2017 volume, volume, 2017 short his In Continent. the policymakers across of desks the on shot awarning like landed book last Krastev’s van BULGARIA ------ization has made them “second-class “second-class them made has ization voters who feel liberalism and global convince to atool became crisis the and Hungarian leader Orbán, Viktor U.K.’s the like Brexiteers Euroskeptics ing elite voters. and ordinary For Luck matters.” Luck matters. leaders individual “the talent of the Union, says Krastev, In the European European the In

- says. “Luck matters.” n he matters,” leaders individual the of talent written. “The be to yet is future bloc’s the says he instead, simistic; he’ssists neither optimistic, nor pes in he Union, European the of survival the for As it. imitate to sought once institutionsits among countries that and values its West, the of rejection ing international phenomenon: a aworry is says he what at looking communism. of fall the after liberalization radical acute in countries that underwent works for. That feeling is particularly citizens” whom Europe no longer For his next project, Krastev, 53, is is 53, Krastev, project, next his For - - - NAME ONE THING YOU WOULD CHANGE ABOUT THE EU. The way the European Commission speaks. I find the combination of arrogance and triviality insulting.

NAME ONE LIVING PERSON YOU CONSIDER A HERO. I will not give you a name because the problem with living people is that you do not know what they will do next.

NAME ONE LIVING PERSON YOU CONSIDER A VILLAIN. Cruelty is something I find particularly appalling; so the political leader who ordered [Saudi journalist Jamal] Khashoggi to be cut in pieces after he was murdered and any other political leader who is ready to give a similar order, I find true villains.

WHAT IS THE BIGGEST LOSS THE EU FACES AS A RESULT OF BREXIT? The EU lost its self- confidence and sense of purpose. It switched to survival mode.

WHAT IS THE 3 misperceptions about the EU 3 misperceptions about Central Europe BIGGEST LOSS The EU won’t fall apart — it’s in no one’s interest: If the The region’s populists want to leave the EU: They don’t. THE UK EU collapses it will be the natural outcome of structural They want to stop being bound by the bloc’s rules but keep FACES AS problems and the equivalent of a traffic accident — both funding from Brussels. A RESULT OF inevitable and inadvertent. BREXIT? Their biggest fear is an “invasion” of foreigners: They’re The U.K. lost Germany runs the EU: There’s no doubt it’s the bloc’s most most afraid of young people leaving their country. its mind. The influential member, but the migration crisis showed Berlin great country can’t impose its will without paying a high political price. It’s too late to reverse the populist wave: It’s not. Voters in we all admire suddenly became Polish local elections rallied against the ruling party, and unbearably The European election will be a referendum on the EU: In the same is happening elsewhere. provincial in its most cases, it will be a referendum on national governments. worldview.

PHOTOGRAPH OF KRASTEV SPEAKING TO A REPORTER IN VIENNA BY STEFAN FUERTBAUER/PICTUREDESK VIA BELGA POLITICO 28 67 RETURNS FOR ITS THIRD YEAR

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Dominik Feri

THE YOUTH VOTER

CZECH REPUBLIC

ominik Feri marked his 22nd birthday D earlier this year by voting against Prime Minister Andrej Babiš in a failed motion of no confidence in the Czech parlia- ment. “Thank you so much for your wishes,” he wrote in a Facebook post bemoaning the government’s surviv- al. “When you complain about socks or underwear, remember this really stupid birthday present.” Feri isn’t just the youngest parliamentarian in the country’s history. He’s the first black one — and conspicuously so. He wears his hair in a bushy afro and enjoys playing Fats Waller-style jazz piano in local clubs. A member of the city council in his hometown of Teplice since the age of 18, he easily won a seat in parliament last year, despite being placed last on the electoral list of his center-right TOP 09 party. In the Czech Republic, voters can cast preferential ballots for individuals, and the then-21-year- old received more than 15,000 pref- erential votes in Prague. Only three other candidates in the city tallied more, all of them well-known veteran WHAT IS YOUR DEFINITION and threats by some people. Or, even politicians. OF “EUROPEAN VALUES?” worse, many people won’t even take His secret: the youth vote — and a you seriously.” prolific and outspoken presence on “They have been shaped by Roman law, While he says the EU could do social media, especially Instagram, Christianity and humanism. Thankfully, more to sell itself in Central Europe, where his choco_afro account has they have endured all the war atrocities and he remains optimistic. For years, Feri have been substantially strengthened after nearly 100,000 followers, roughly 1 World War II. Roman law has influenced our visited schools around the country percent of the Czech population. He laws and thus affected the way we live — for to lecture students on politics and uses it to forcefully — and often wit- example, the law of succession. It might the EU. His parliamentary obligations tily — express his enthusiasm for the not be the most popular way to think about and his studies — he’s working toward European values, yet the influence of Roman EU and his contempt for the illiberal law is what we have in common.” a law degree at Prague’s Charles populism of the Czech president and University — keep him from doing prime minister, the Czech Commu- the number of residents of African that now, which is why he is so active nists and the virulent xenophobia of descent remains minuscule and racial on social media. “Young Czechs are the far right. intolerance is widespread. The issue, less interested in politics or traveling It’s not easy being young and says Feri — who is partly of Ethiopian around the EU [than their elders],” he black in the Czech Republic, where ancestry — is “constant mockery says. “But that will change.” n

POLITICO 28 69 70 DREAMER 9 Højgaard Guðrið

Guðrið Højgaard

THE ISLAND EVANGELIST

FAROE ISLANDS

or most tourism authorities, the brief is F simple: Make people come visit. Guðrið Højgaard’s mission for the Faroe Islands is a bit more complicated: She first has to make people aware that the place exists — put the rocky archipelago on the map, literally. The Faroes are such a small, obscure group of islands — out in the sea between Scotland and Iceland — that they don’t appear on many maps of the world. And so Højgaard, director of Visit Faroe Islands, the country’s official tourism board, had to get creative. For two years running, clev- er initiatives have earned her group Cannes Lion awards, the marketing world’s version of the Oscars. The country is so far flung that as of 2016 Google hadn’t both- ered visiting the island to create street-view images. So that year, Højgaard’s team launched Sheep View, strapping cameras to, well, sheep. Google’s cameras showed up the following year, but the tech giant still didn’t include Faroese among its Translate options. In 2017, Højgaard predictable could well be a national MBA. She worked in marketing in launched Faroe Islands Translate, theme. You won’t find an amusement both Denmark and Stockholm before using local volunteers to provide live, park or street signs written in English returning home with her husband and custom translations. In less than two on the Faroe Islands. Tourists are two children. months, 41 percent of the population instead invited into living rooms — or Young people leaving the Faroes pitched in to translate 1.3 million boats or caves — for concerts by lo- has long been a trend, but it’s one words. cal musicians; to dinner tables show- that’s starting to reverse, thanks in The unusual approach is born casing distinctively fermented local large part to Højgaard’s efforts to of necessity. With little money for proteins or into workshops to learn to rebrand the islands as a Nordic jewel. media buys, Højgaard’s team had knit from families who have perfected “We hear from young people all the to find unusual ways of grabbing the national craft for generations. time that one of the reasons they attention. “It was a risky project,” Højgaard, 46, grew up on the want to come back is that we have she says. “We couldn’t guarantee any islands, but then left to study in made the Faroe Islands cool,” she visibility.” Her team spent the next Copenhagen — officially, the Faroe says. “When you make a destination several days inundated with interview Islands are an independent country more interesting for tourists, you requests, from as far away as Austra- within the Kingdom of Denmark, like also make it more interesting for the lia. Indeed, providing a twist on the Greenland — where she earned an locals.” n

PHOTOGRAPHS: TRÓNDUR DALSGARÐ FOR POLITICO (OPENING SPREAD) & FRANCKREPORTER VIA ISTOCK (OPPOSITE PAGE) POLITICO 28 73 PHOTOGRAPHS BY ENRI CANAJ

WELCOME UNWELCOME

In the three months following Matteo Salvini’s appointment as Italy’s interior minister, the United Nations described a “dangerous acceleration” in attacks on immigrants: 56 physical assaults, 14 shootings and two murders. Magnum photographer Enri Canaj tells the story of migrants of African descent in southern Italy.

74 POLITICO 28

76 POLITICO 28 Opposite: Migrants work in asparagus fields. Often farm workers report to a “gangmaster,” working long hours for far below the minimum wage. The gangmasters charge them for transport to the fields, as well as the food and water they receive while working.

From top: 22-year- old “P” arrived in Italy from Nigeria, and now lives with her boyfriend.

A trio of Nigerian children play in a pool in Castel Volturno (also pictured at left). The youngest, Annabell, was born in Italy and is fluent in Italian and English. Men in Caserta wait in line Eva, 25, moved to apply for documents. to Italy in 2016. Even after living in Italy Originally from for years, a large number Nigeria, she and of migrants don’t have her daughter — residence permits or Eva’s first — live in other legal papers. Riace, Calabria.

78 POLITICO 28

80 POLITICO 28 Opposite: A makeshift Italian market — selling luggage and second-hand clothing — at a migrants’ camp in Rossano, Calabria.

From top: A barbershop in the “runway” ghetto at Borgo Mezzanone. Dasmouen, above, serves as a butcher in the ghetto.

Grace, 27, and Roizza, 23, arrived two years ago from Nigeria. They each became mothers for the first time in Italy. Suman, a 15-year-old from Gambia, jogs along with his dog, Jonick, on the way back to the CARA refugee camp at Borgo Mezzanone.

82 POLITICO 28

DATA POINT The disruptors Are we moving in 1 the wrong direction?

Share of respondents to a Eurobarometer poll who said Mary Lou things are going awry in the EU and in their home country: McDonald IRELAND Greece 2 Mattias Tesfaye

DENMARK 3

68% 79%

Awry in the EU Awry in Greece Jeremy

United Kingdom Corbyn UNITED KINGDOM

4

Eleni Touloupaki GREECE

45% 50% 5

Awry in the EU Awry in the UK Herbert Kickl AUSTRIA Romania 6

Ali Can TURKEY/GERMANY

7

Márta Pardavi HUNGARY

26% 63% 8 Awry in the EU Awry in Romania

Mischaël Modrikamen BELGIUM Portugal 9 15% 15% Awry in the EU Awry in Portugal Mihai Șora ROMANIA

POLITICO 28 85

1 DISRUPTOR

Mary Lou

McDonald THE UNIFIER

IRELAND

ary Lou McDonald erational transition within Sinn Féin a member of the IRA. Her prominence has two things on her — but a break with a past in which in the successful toppling of a consti- M agenda: a Sinn Féin the party served as the political arm tutional ban on abortion earlier this government in Dublin, of the Provisional Irish Republican year also helped broaden her profile and a united Ireland. Army, the paramilitary organization as a politician, and showed her ability The 49-year-old poli- that sought to end British rule in to work in coalition as she argued on tician took over the leadership of her Northern Ireland through force. the same side and worked in tandem Irish republican party unopposed in Unlike Adams, Sinn Féin’s new with Irish Prime Minister Leo Varad- February, replacing Gerry Adams, the leader does not have to deny in kar and opposition party Fianna Fáil’s bearded Belfast figure who had come interview after interview that she was leader Micheál Martin. to define the party over a 34-year Since the Good Friday Agreement leadership. McDonald poses for photographers brought peace to Ireland 20 years For many in Ireland, McDonald’s after being confirmed as the new ago, Sinn Féin has pursued unification s ascension represents not just a gen- leader of Sinn Féin in February. through the ballot box, transforming

PHOTOGRAPH BY BARRY CRONIN/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES POLITICO 28 87 A mural in itself into an all-island political force ed English literature graduate from a been different.” Dublin’s city that is the dominant party among wealthy suburb of Dublin, McDonald McDonald first dipped her toe center by the Irish nationalists in the north and the defied the Sinn Féin stereotype: into politics with Fianna Fáil, the art collective third-largest in the Dublin parliament. hard-bitten, male and northern. once-dominant center-right party her Subset called McDonald believes Brexit has put But she rejects the inference family traditionally backed. But she for a repeal of unification within reach — making a that there’s an unbridgeable gap found its social conservatism an ill fit Ireland’s ban so-called border poll on the issue all between her life experience and that and joined Sinn Féin, then something on abortion. but inevitable, as the United King- of the party’s hardcore base, which of a fringe party in the south. Her dom’s departure from the European lived through decades of conflict in rise, along with the party’s, was swift: Union unravels the delicate balance Northern Ireland. Her mother’s uncle She first ran as a candidate in 2002, underpinning the status quo. was executed in Ireland’s civil war, became the party’s first member in “There is absolutely no doubt in fighting on the side that opposed the the European Parliament in 2004, my mind that we are heading towards treaty that partitioned the island. took the deputy leadership in 2009 constitutional change on the island,” McDonald’s own political awak- and entered parliament in 2011. she says. “I have a very strong sense ening came aged 12, when the news At that time, the Labour Party, the of responsibility as the new leader was beamed into her living room that traditional voice of the Irish left, was of the party to steer and direct that Republican hunger strikers who were a minority partner in government, as best I can, in a way that facilitates demanding to be recognized as po- forced to facilitate the crushing maximum consensus.” litical prisoners in Belfast had begun austerity measures that followed to die. “I completely understood, and Ireland’s economic collapse and Not your father’s Sinn Féin understand, why people volunteered international bailout. This gave Sinn for the IRA,” McDonald said in a 2013 Féin the space to redefine itself in the McDonald provoked curiosity when documentary. “Was it necessary to south as a left-wing, anti-austerity, she first entered the Irish lower house take up arms against the British state populist party akin to Spain’s Podem- of parliament as deputy leader of in the north? I believe it was. I take no os or Greece’s Syriza. Polls began to Sinn Féin in 2011. A privately educat- pleasure in saying that. I wish it had show the party rivalling Fianna Fáil

88 POLITICO 28 PHOTOGRAPH BY BRIAN LAWLESS/PRESS ASSOCIATION WHAT IS YOUR DEFINITION OF “EUROPEAN VALUES”? Solidarity, sovereignty and shared prosperity. NAME A PERSON YOU ADMIRE. Christiane Amanpour. IF YOU COULD REFORM ONE THING ABOUT THE EU, WHAT WOULD IT BE? Fundamental treaty change needed to reboot social, peaceful EU. TELL US SOMETHING SURPRISING ABOUT YOURSELF. That nothing ever surprises me! WHAT IS THE BIGGEST LOSS THE EU FACES AS A RESULT OF BREXIT? For the EU? The loss of an awkward partner. For Ireland? Total disruption. WHAT IS THE BIGGEST LOSS THE UK FACES AS A RESULT OF BREXIT? Connectivity. Splendid isolation once again.

Her message: Irish nationalism, In 2004, born out of resistance to a colonial McDonald power, is traditionally progressive. (at left before “My politics has always been about a debate two things: about Irish unity, ending in Belfast) partition, national freedom; and also became Sinn about equality,” McDonald says. “I’m Féin’s first a feminist. I’m a person who believes member in in social justice.” the European Parliament. Brexit turnaround

Sinn Féin was once the biggest critic of the European Union in Irish politics. Brexit has made the party into the EU’s passionate defender. McDonald sees no contradiction. Her main objections to the EU are to its economic policy — she believes members should have more leeway on spending — and to any moves to in support, where it has remained, Féin policy against being a minority develop it as a military force. But the wavering between 15 and 25 percent. coalition partner. “We’re a party problem posed by Brexit is far more Since then, Sinn Féin has put itself that’s serious about reshaping and urgent: a threat to livelihoods, and at the forefront of Ireland’s move- changing Ireland, and for that to hap- potentially lives, as she sees it as ments for social change, including pen we have to be in government,” being in contradiction to the Good the campaign to legalize gay marriage McDonald says. “I am simply making Friday Agreement. in 2015 and this year’s abortion a statement of what I think is the The peace deal states that the campaign. blindingly obvious.” constitutional status of Northern Rivals sometimes accuse McDon- Ireland can only be changed by dem- Reshaping Ireland ald of being a mere cosmetic change ocratic consent. McDonald argues for a party they see as still controlled that Brexit goes against this, as the Along the way, McDonald has by subversive republican networks majority in the region voted against matured into the most prominent rooted in the north. Skeleton Provi- it. In the case of a no-deal Brexit and woman in Irish politics, universally sional IRA structures remain in place, the hardening of the border, McDon- known as “Mary Lou,” a commanding and a 2015 report by Northern Ireland ald says, Sinn Féin would demand a debater of wry, measured cadences police and British intelligence found border poll immediately — something who is instantly recognizable for her that a so-called army council “over- she has communicated to British signature chestnut bob. McDonald sees both PIRA and Sinn Féin with an Prime Minister Theresa May. expects to be fighting her first elec- overarching strategy.” “If the British system thinks that tion as party leader soon. (“If I were a McDonald dismisses the idea they’re going to inflict that level of betting woman, I would probably say that she is not in control of her own jeopardy, damage, hardship and the springtime,” she says.) actions as sexism, and the party’s peril on our island and walk away, She has declared herself ready to strong popularity among younger and expect all of us just to take it on work with anyone, openly courting voters suggests such criticism has the chin, I’m afraid they’re deeply reluctant rivals Fine Gael and Fianna less resonance among those for misguided,” she says. “The British Fáil and overturning previous Sinn whom the conflict is history. government is on notice.” n

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Mattias Tesfaye

THE BORDER GUARD

DENMARK

he son of an Ethiopian refugee father and a T Danish mother, Mattias Tesfaye’s political trajectory reflects the rightward shift of his nation. He began in politics as a teenage firebrand aged 16, joining the bricklayers’ union. He worked his way from communism through socialism before declaring himself a Social Democrat in 2013. Now, he’s the face of the center-left party’s new hard line on migration ahead of an election that will be defined by the issue. The party is busy making up for the more internationalist chapters of its past, advocating tight borders, heavy-handed integration incentives and eye-catching laws that tell Danish voters and the wider world that immi- grants should steer clear of the coun- try. The Social Democrats supported confiscating the jewellery of refugees to pay for their asylum, putting immigrants’ children in compulsory child care and banning the niqab. “Denmark is a welfare state,” says the 37-year-old Danish MP. “We’ve succeeded in winning public support for high social distribution. This asks. “Of course, I’m the child of a WHAT WOULD YOU public support stands on some kind refugee … but it’s more important for CHANGE ABOUT THE EU? of cultural cohesion, and migration is me that I’ve been a bricklayer. If you I would make it possible for member states to not good for this social cohesion.” ask me what my identity is, it’s more have border control. Not the end of Schengen, but In 2017, Tesfaye published “Wel- close to that.” the rules that regulate this should be changed. come, Mustafa,” a review of 50 years Tesfaye advocates working with WHAT IS YOUR DEFINITION of Social Democrat immigration the far-right Danish People’s Party OF “EUROPEAN VALUES?” policy that argues that skepticism to form a government following an toward immigration is part of the I try to avoid defining “Danish” or “European” election due by June 2019. The Social values. It makes no sense to me, since everyone left’s history, rehabilitating figures Democrats are set to emerge the can decide for themselves what they understand in the party who warned early on biggest party but will need the sup- about them. What is important to me is to defend that integration could be a problem. port of others to pass legislation, and and develop the social and democratic values. Does it help for such policies to be such a move would break with years WHAT IS THE BIGGEST LOSS THE articulated by a man with brown of tradition of working with the “red EU FACES AS A RESULT OF BREXIT? skin and an Ethiopian surname? “So, block” on the left. “Everything now in I fear, above all, that populations in more because of my father’s background I Danish politics is not what it used to countries will follow. We forget quickly. My own can’t have certain opinions?” Tesfaye be,” says Tesfaye. n generation has not experienced war in Europe.

POLITICO 28 91

x3 DISRUPTOR

Jeremy Corbyn

THE TRUMP OF THE LEFT

UNITED KINGDOM

hat U.S. President Donald Trump is to W right-wing nationalism, Jeremy Corbyn wants to be to international socialism. That may not be exactly how he or his closest advisers would put it. But it is what many of them think. The British Labour Party leader wants to make socialism great again — for the United Kingdom and the rest of Europe — and he believes 2019 presents a “once in a lifetime” oppor- tunity to win power and transform the country. “With the British government weak and unstable, Labour is ready for a general election whenever it may come,” he says, in an email interview with POLITICO. “We’ve set out a radi- cal plan to rebuild Britain, and we are ready to implement it.” Like Trump, Corbyn promises na- tional renewal after what he says are years of national decline. Like Trump, he promises to shake up the estab- lishment and restore power to ordi- nary citizens — “Draining the swamp,” in Trump’s language; overturning “a rigged system that benefits the few,” in Corbyn’s. The only way to “keep the migrant- Another lesson from across the “Every step of the and minority-baiters at bay,” he says, Atlantic is that it would be a mistake way, we will seek to referring to the far right rising across to rule out the Labour leader’s rise to Europe, is “standing up together for power. Were the 69-year-old radical build support for the what we know to be right.” to do the once-unthinkable and new, close relationship “We know that to deliver real and ascend to his country’s highest office, lasting social change, we need to he — like Trump — would provide a with the EU that work with allies across the world to boost to fellow travelers across the most people in the create a new global economic and world. “The election of a Labour gov- environmental common sense,” he ernment will, I hope, encourage and U.K. want.” says. “The old economic consensus give greater confidence to progressive based on supposed free markets and parties and movements in Europe and self-interested establishment,” he privatization has failed and broken beyond,” says Corbyn. says. “If they do they open the way down. Labour, with a new sense of The internationalist left must not for the far right to claim to speak purpose and hundreds of thousands “partner in austerity” or “present for those who have been failed and of new members, is ready to help lead s themselves as the human face of a neglected by a broken system.” that change.”

PHOTOGRAPH OF CORBYN AT A GRENFELL TOWER MEMORIAL BY DANIEL LEAL-OLIVAS/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES POLITICO 28 93 Corbyn and Corbyn’s inner circle believes a be as disruptive as Trump’s. He has all of us — not the financial gamblers, British Prime snap election could easily be immi- promised to raise taxes, nationalize tax dodgers and mega corporations,” Minister nent — if Prime Minister Theresa May utilities and the railways, rein in the Corbyn says. “We are determined to Theresa May fails to push a Brexit deal through financial industry, scrap Britain’s seize it.” after the parliament, or is brought down by nuclear deterrent, immediately On European affairs, the Labour queen’s speech her party after ramming through an recognize a Palestinian state and pull leader takes a more measured stance. in 2017. unpopular one. Those close to May away from the “special relationship” “We stand for a very different Britain agree, worrying that unless the Tories between the U.K. and the United after Brexit,” he says. “So every deliver a clean Brexit, and offer real States. step of the way, we will seek to build change afterward, the country’s And there’s every indication he support for the new, close relation- voters will look for an alternative. “It’s plans to deliver (even if, like Trump, ship with the EU that most people in 1945,” says one former May aide. “You Corbyn’s advisers worry that their the U.K. want.” That, he says, means can win the war, that’s fine. But voters effort could be derailed by resistance remaining in the EU customs union don’t thank you for what you’ve done, from within the establishment). “We and retaining access to the single they want you to answer the next have a once-in-a-generation oppor- market. “We are leaving the EU but we question.” tunity to build an economy that puts will not turn away from our vital role A Corbyn government could easily the real wealth creators first — that’s in Europe’s future,” he adds. n

94 POLITICO 28 PHOTOGRAPH BY JAMES VEYSEY/CAMERA PRESS VIA BELGA 4 DISRUPTOR

Eleni Touloupaki

THE INQUISITOR

GREECE

here are few charac- ters in Greek politics T as divisive as Eleni Touloupaki. To her sup- porters, the chief an- ti-corruption prosecu- tor is a badly needed scourge, rooting out a culture of graft that stretches its tentacles deep into the country’s establishment. To her critics, she’s a tool of the ruling far-left Syriza party, pursuing political vendettas and undermining the opposition. What’s undisputed is that the cases she’s working on have the potential to shake up public opinion ahead of a national election next year, in which the center-right New Democracy party has a convincing lead. In October, she took a step toward claiming her first high-level scalp — when an investigation she launched resulted in the pre-trial detention of Yannos Papantoniou, a former Socialist Cabinet minister. Papantoniou, accused of taking kickbacks while defense minister, has called the charges “an outrageous fabrication.” Touloupaki has also collaborated closely with U.S. authorities in an Touloupaki spent years work- inquiry into whether the Swiss drug- “We have to rebuild ing her way up through Greece’s maker Novartis paid off top govern- the brand name of prosecution services, moving from ment officials to spend public money its anti-racism department to its eco- on the company’s products. Prose- Greece. We should nomic crimes unit in the three years cutors working under Touloupaki are all work towards prior to landing her current role. She investigating 10 former government says she first started to work on cor- officials, including two former prime that very seriously.” ruption issues in 2015 when she sat ministers, European Commissioner down with Hervé Falciani, the HSBC for Migration Dimitris Avramopoulos efforts tirelessly as long as we are whistleblower who revealed that tens and the Greek central bank governor, serving the public.” The 48-year-old of thousands of people in Greece and Yannis Stournaras. prosecutor declines to comment on across the EU had avoided paying “The cases we are handling are of any charges that her team plans to billions of euros in taxes using the major social interest, [concerning] bring forward but insists the cases advice of Swiss bankers. “We have to not only domestic corruption but also that have been pending for years rebuild the brand name of Greece,” cases with foreign corruption,” says have “already been accelerated and she says. “We should all work to- Touloupaki. “We shall go on with our are now bearing fruit.” wards that very seriously.” n

POLITICO 28 95 96 DISRUPTOR 5 Kickl Herbert I ister has rigorously denied. Austria’s Austria’s denied. rigorously has ister min the asuggestion Kickl’s party, to close circles right-wing in viduals extremist organizations and indi protect to was raid the of purpose raised suspicions that the primary in The revelation Austria. extremists right-wing into office’s investigations the of details including information, secret of cache large a confiscated investigators rifles, with assault ligence service’s headquarters intel the stormed police masked and wrongdoing. anonymous allegations of corruption to response in service intelligence Austria’s domestic raid to light green the police gave later, Kickl’s ministry eyebrows Europe. across Just weeks raised that words of achoice tions, loca central in refugees trating” taking office “concen he suggested after Shortly rockier. abit been has 2000s. early the in collapse its to led nearly divisions nal inter after the resurrect helped party Kickl 1990s, the in leader charismatic Jörg Haider, the Freedom Party’s philosophy before latching onto to studied who dropout Auniversity ric. rheto anti-migration virulent party’s strategist who honed the the-scenes behind- the as adecade than more the Freedom Party’s leadership for in akey player 50, was Kickl, Austria, power. into parties populist potent Europe’s of most one termind behind the recent of ascent THE HARD MAN HARD THE POLITICO 28 POLITICO During the operation, in which which in operation, the During minister interior as tenure His Though little known outside of minister and the mas Austria’s interior a German accent). er Steve Bannon (with a leaner,magine mean Meet Herbert Kickl, Kickl, Meet Herbert AUSTRIA ------in press releases. press in details asylum and immigration status suspects’ to include foreignersby and committed crimes sex highlight to authorities September encouraged Kickl’sby officein released memo A

were promptly leaked to the same same the to leaked promptly were say, to instructions the Needless releases. press in details, asylum including status, immigration pects’ by foreigners and to include sus highlight sexual crimes committed to authorities encourage to on went memo The media.” “critical with tion instructing them to limit communica officials, police senior to September in order internal an issue to office Austrian journalists, prompted Kickl’s by of investigative reporting stream the affair. is currently investigating parliament The uproar, fueled by a steady asteady by uproar, fueled The - - critical media Kickl’s office was hop- In June, Kickl and Austrian a personification of the dangers the ing to shut out, forcing both Chan- Defense Minister Mario far right poses to democracy. cellor Sebastian Kurz and Austria’s Kunasek presented a newly Yet he isn’t without his admirers. president to disavow the memo. formed ‘PUMA’ unit of His hard-line stance on migra- In many parts of Europe, such police officers and soldiers tion and rejection of EU plans to missteps would trigger a minis- to guard the country’s distribute refugees across the bloc ter’s resignation. But Kickl, a close borders, pictured above. has won him important allies among confidant of party leader and Kickl and Kunasek watched likeminded politicians in countries Vice Chancellor Heinz-Christian as the more than 700 such as Hungary and Italy. “I became Strache, is simply too important law enforcement officials interior minister to create order,” for the Freedom Party to throw simulated responses to a Kickl said recently. That’s exactly overboard. Nonetheless, Kickl has migration crisis along the what worries his many detractors. become something of an embar- Slovenian border. “A state So far, Kickl, a triathlete who likes to rassment. And to critics of Kurz’s which can’t protect its boast of his stamina, has shown no decision to build a coalition with borders when needed,” said inclination to bow out. Maybe he’s the Freedom Party, the minister is Kickl, “loses its credibility. not like Bannon after all. n

PHOTOGRAPHS BY CHRISTIAN BRUNA/EFE VIA EUROPEAN PRESSPHOTO AGENCY POLITICO 28 97 98 DISRUPTOR 6 Can Ali A identity of Germans with migrant dual the echoes also it but ment, the #MeToo move anti-harassment invoke to #MeTwo meant is hashtag an immigrant when we lose.” The “I am German when we win, but I am racism. of media the and fans tion, accused Germany’s football associa Turkish of immigrants, son the Özil, letter, resignation his In Erdoğan. Tayyip Recep Turkish President with aphotograph for pose to decision his of criticism over team national matic resignation from the German the football Mesut Özil’s star dra having a migrant background.” tolerant, being German means not themselves call that those even ple, peo many “For says. Can outdated,” understanding of being German is terms with the transformation. “The to come to yet —has right far the of and Afghanistan, and the rapid rise of them asylum seekers from Syria many migrants, 1million than more of arrival recent the from — reeling country the But background. migrant a has now population the of a quarter sland Einwanderung an become has many about his rapidly changing nation. adebate of forefront the to him pelled pro —and Can alarmed and prised #MeTwo. The enormous reaction sur racism under the Twitter hashtag share their experience with everyday with trymen migrant to backgrounds coun his on called he when summer this storm media asocial caused THE TWO-HEARTED MAN TWO-HEARTED THE POLITICO 28 POLITICO Can’s campaign was a reaction to to areaction was Can’s campaign The numbers leave no doubt: Ger doubt: no leave numbers The — a land of immigration. Nearly Nearly immigration. of —aland ish-German activist activist ish-German Turk 25-year-old The German. be to means it what of inition change the def- to wants Can li TURK

- M N G - A R E Y

-

------Y -

descendants. their and immigrants of loyalties the suspicion, with many questioning belonging to worlds two still invites ing or limiting dual citizenship laws, politicians regularly debate abolish 3 years old. But in Germany, where with his parents when he was barely from Germany fled to Turkey who Can, to key.) familiar It’s asentiment Tur under list this in he’s included that spirit it’s this in citizen, German a is Can (Though else. something and German both be to possible it’s —meaning hearts” “two having by described Özilbackgrounds, as The clearly campaign touched a - - PHOTOGRAPH BY ROLF VENNENBERND/DPA VIA BELGA VIA VENNENBERND/DPA ROLF BY PHOTOGRAPH their skin color or their headscarf. headscarf. their or color skin their of because an their apartment name, or job a find to struggling recounted many ethnic minority Germans #MeTwo the using tweets hashtag, of thousands of tens the Among done.” be to remains work much how showed stories these all “But says. he refugees,” these all in taking of culture, welcoming our about boast “We problem. the of extent the ed underestimat had —he good so is German his why asked being to club a to entrance refused being — from himself in Germany discrimination encountered plenty of everyday nerve, says Can. Although he has - Can’s campaign was a reaction to the football star Mesut Özil’s dramatic resignation from the German national team. In a letter, Özil, the son of Turkish immigrants, accused Germany’s football association, fans and the media of racism. “I am German when we win,” wrote Özil, at left. “But I am an immigrant when we lose.”

Second- and third-generation immigrants, echoing Özil, describe not feeling fully ac- cepted as “Germans” and speak of double standards. “At least we now know the state of our society and what we have to work on,” Can says. Since #MeTwo, Can’s star as an im- portant player in the immigration debate has risen quickly. Amid numerous media appearances, he met with German poli- ticians to discuss combating discrimina- tion, among them President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Foreign Minister Heiko Maas and Germany’s integration commissioner, Annette Widmann-Mauz. In the North Rhine-Westphalian city of Essen, where Can lives, he will soon open a center aiming to foster intercultural exchange and respectful debate. A late-night show is also in the works. (He has put his teaching degree on ice.) His goal, for now: He wants German passport holders to be accepted as Ger- man, no matter their background or place of birth. His countrymen ought to realize that people are like icebergs, he says; they ought to see that the surface — the accent, the skin color, the headscarf — is only a tiny fraction of the whole. But beyond that, he sees being German as a mindset. “If someone has lived here for a long time, if they have a democratic attitude, if they re- spect our constitution and our laws — then they are German.” As part of that effort, Can operates a call center for Germans skeptical about migration, a project he founded two years ago. On this so-called hotline for con- cerned citizens, he listens to calls from people who disagree with immigration, or volunteers unsure how to deal with refu- gees who behave disrespectfully toward women. “My goal is to look at these cases and how to deal with them but make sure to differentiate,” says Can. “So that criti- cism doesn’t become fear-mongering.” n

POLITICO 28 99 100 DISRUPTOR 7 Pardavi Márta M the Helsinki Committee, and other mense and sustained attack against im an is “There media. the in attacks of asylum seekers and responding to rights the over battles legal of series a overseeing be will she meantime, backsliding on democracy. In the what she characterizes Hungary’s as explaining corps, diplomatic and dia me the to briefings and panels views, inter of awhirlwind include might protection.” refugee for up spoke —who voices — organizations few very the of one Ithink became “We 2015,” adds. she changed quite significantly inearly here in the officealso but in general, life, “Our government. Orbán the of views critical their to due jobs their have lost they say who those detentionpre-trial and, increasingly, and Hungarian citizens in prison or to asylumlegal seekers assistance garian provides Committee Helsinki pay. to Hun The refusing is it which tax,” “immigration percent 25 a new Pardavi. Her organization faces also like leaders society civil of arrest the to lead could that alaw approved targets. primary its of one — and government’s prominent most critics Pardavi is one of the Hungarian group, rights ahuman Committee, of theAs co-chair Hungarian Helsinki 18.” be he’ll when place in be could regime this think to feeling a horrible Orbán’s right-wing government. “It’s Viktor Minister Prime Hungarian the to referring says, she regime,” Orbán THE RESISTANCETHE POLITICO 28 POLITICO A typical week for Pardavi, 44, 44, Pardavi, for week A typical In June, the Hungarian parliament all he knows is this this is knows he all so 2010, in born was son “My country. free a in up grow won’t fear is that her child Pardavi’sárta greatest HUNGARY - - - - challenges is ensuring the emotional says. she crosshairs,” the in always are we but too, organizations place when he’ll be 18.” in be regime could feeling this to think horrible a It’s regime. knows this is Orbán in 2010, so all he “My son was born born was son “My For Pardavi, one of the main main the of one Pardavi, For

kind of stress,” she says. n says. she stress,” of kind that to used “You get can’t building. the of front in conferences press anti-NGO hold sometimes wing youth Members of Orbán’s Fidesz party magazine. a government-controlled in list” “enemies an of part as printed and staff namesmembers’ have been streams of hateful telephone calls, rolling. Thecameras officereceives with doorbell the ringing says, she outside the the office, corridor” government are “lurking often around from with channels associated the Television crews allies. its and ment govern the from pressure constant faces which staff, her of well-being - The mobility sector is evolving at a rapid pace. From the technological evolution of the automotive industry to alternative fuels, connected networks and Brexit’s impact on the aviation industry and supply chains, Pro obility delivers the insight you need to keep on track.

EMAIL [email protected] TO REQUEST A TRIAL 102 DISRUPTOR 8 Modrikamen Mischaël W hopes Thehopes Movement will as serve newspaper — both right-wing. He asmall of owner the and party cal politi atiny of leader the politics, Belgian in celebrity” “obscure an as himself describes up. He broken institutionservices that since has financial a Belgian Fortis, involved gate” affair, a financialscandal that “Fortis so-called the in alawyer as role his for known is he Belgium, In through about Islamism. concerns kamen to came right-wing populism Poland who fought the Nazis, Modri Parliament election. European year’s next of ahead groups andresearch advice to right-wing into a foundation offeringpolitical Movement The turn to agreed men two it.’” The have finished Icould and aphrase ‘You me: to started said non Ban —as do to Iwanted what vision, cigar. “His his on puffs between says Mayfair, and we clicked,” Modrikamen in Hotel Browns the at lunch for Imet and “Bannon strategist. chief President Donald Trump’s former Modrikamen to Steve Bannon, U.S. introduced Farage Nigel leader Party Unitedafter Kingdom Independence populist power star earlier this year of right-wing Euroskeptics. “a club” as describes he organization to convene “The Movement,” an that the 52-year-old wants lawyer Brussels, of outskirts the on house his in here, it’s from —as coincidence ahappy is Which club. gentlemen’s English an of replica aBelgian like THE BELGIANTHE BANNON POLITICO 28 POLITICO The son of an immigrant from from immigrant an of son The of jolt a given was effort That living room looks Mischaël Modrikamen’s walls, map-covered dered cushions and embroi sofas, field ith its leather Chester BELGIUM ------to destroy the EU. Rather, he wants EU. the Rather, wants he destroy to Modrikamen says he doesn’t want plan. the backed has LePen Marine supporter, and French far-right leader enthusiastic an is Salvini Matteo Minister Interior Italian reception. Continent. European Parliament and across the the in forces Euroskeptic for locus the accountability. the EU its is lack of Modrikamen about shocks What His proposal has had a mixed amixed had has proposal His behalf? It’sbehalf? unbearable.” n my on speak to supposed is who ini, foreign policy chief Federica] Mogher [EU I sanction can How policies? his President Jean-Claude] Juncker for I [European sanction Commission can “How accountability. of lack its years.” five or four after arse his on out boot can you program.” And it should be “someone areal and debate democratic real a “with elected be should says, he The president of this confederation, with limitedissues competence.” coordinates that states sovereign of to it transform into a “confederation What shocks him about the EU is EU is the about him shocks What - www.gpac.eu

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Mihai Șora

THE ELDER

ROMANIA

s a protester, Mihai Șora doesn’t suffer A from lack of experi- ence. The 102-year- old philosopher and writer was born in what is now Romania in 1916. As a young man he went to study for his Ph.D. in France, where he joined the Resistance and fought the Nazis. After the war, during a visit home, he was arrested by the newly formed Communist government and pre- vented from leaving the country. He spent the next 40 years in Bucharest, shuffling between jobs, from which he was often dismissed for insubordi- nation, and translating major writers — Kant, Proust, Tolstoy, Goethe — at a time when Western values were discouraged and dissidence could be punished with death. Shortly after Romania’s 1989 revo- lution, Șora was appointed education minister. He was one of just two Cab- inet members to support an effort to ban former Communists from holding public office — a measure that would love. The page incorporates plenty of “I SAW EUROPE SHATTERED,” have disqualified both Șora and the humor, but there are some things he Șora wrote of his long experience, president he was serving. He resigned won’t make light of: “We should never on accepting the European six months after taking office, in joke about Ro-exit,” he wrote in early Parliament’s 2018 European Citizen’s protest over violent clashes between October. Prize. “I saw Europe silent in front of anti-Communist demonstrators and Over the course of his long life, barbarity, powerless, tired, heroic miners trucked into the capital to Șora has seen the world transform or bent. I saw Europe starting to confront them. from one based around countries dance to a strange music: fanatical More recently, the centenarian and empires to one in which politics, dictators and sick populists. has become one of the public faces economics and culture transcend of wide-scale protests against the national boundaries. Globalization, he “But I always knew, with some sort of government. He’s a familiar figure at says, heralds a new historical stage serene and unshakable confidence, street demonstrations denouncing for humanity. That puts additional that the generous and genius side of ecologically damaging mining proj- importance on Europe maintaining its Europe will be right in the face of the ects or railing against laws he says values. “To continue its existence, Eu- beastly and ferocious side — that the would undermine anti-corruption ef- rope should adapt to the new reality,” intelligent Europe, the one of ancient forts. Together with his wife, the poet he says. “At the present moment, the times, of the time of old Socrates, Luiza Șora, he maintains a Facebook accent should be on unity in diversity.” searching for ‘the why’ of things, this page offering his thoughts on democ- Is he optimistic about the future? Europe will always find the means to racy, Europe, citizenship, family and “Optimism is mandatory,” he says. n go seek the answers.”

POLITICO 28 105 DATA POINT What are Europe’s election priorities?

BY HANNE COKELAERE

This map shows the main concerns of voters ahead of the 2019 European Parliament election — the larger the word, the more people want the issue to be discussed. The shades of blue denote how much the country’s residents tend to trust the EU — the more they trust Brussels, the darker the shade.

Note: “The youth” is short for youth unemployment; “social policy” is short for social protection; “security” is short for security and defense policy.

Source: Eurobarometer

106 POLITICO 28 SPECIAL COVERAGE

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