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Iskandar Development Scenario and Its Policy Implications

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Iskandar Development Scenario and Its Policy Implications 15th AIM INTERNATIONAL WORSHOP Iskandar Development scenario and its policy implications CS HO, University Technology Malaysia 15th AIM INTERNATIONAL WORSHOP February 20-22, 2010 Ohyama Memorial hall, NIES Tsukuba, Japan 1 1 1 • Degradation of Water quality • Air pollution has also increased • Noise pollution in urban areas • The decline in the quality of life • Supply of housing for the poor • Natural disasters • Global Warming 2 • Review existing documents. • Give priority on prevention of disaster. • Preparation of risk and hazard maps. • Incorporate Hyogo Framework • Review existing legislation • Review existing building codes • Review planning • Enhance the provision for emergency shelters • Improve coordination between agencies • Promote data sharing • Improve public awareness • Propose insurance policy 1 3 Current Policies -CO2 reduction efforts in Malaysia UN Climate Change Forum at Copenhagen (Dec 2009) – Malaysia target - Reduction of Carbon emission by 40% from 187mil ton in year 2005 to 74.8mil ton in 2020 In the National Environmental Policy (2002), Green Technology Policy (July 2009), and broad policy in the Ninth Malaysia Plan (2006-2010), outlined strategies towards sustainable development with framework for the development of environmentally friendly and sustainable forms of energy. Emphasis is also given to increase energy efficiency and promotion of the use of renewable energy. Promotion of renewable energy and green technology (development of second generation biofuel using biomass as feedstock, installing methane trapping device and steam turbine generators etc ) as a new growth area. INTERNATIONAL POSITIONING OF ISKANDAR MALAYSIA . At the heart of South East Asia and within minutes from Singapore . Strategically located at the cross roads of East- West trade lanes . Midway between the growing economy of China and India GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE Area Region Population (million) Density (km2) 1.4 Iskandar Malaysia 2,217 631 (Projected 2025: 3.0 million) Singapore 690 4.1 6,003 Dubai 3,885 1.2 309 Hong Kong 1,095 6.9 6,301 LONG-TERM ASPIRATIONS 2005 Projected (2025) 1.4 million 3.0 million Population Size 20.0 93.3 GDP (PPP) in USD bn 13.5 63.0 GDP (PPP) in EURO bn 14,790 31,100 GDP per capita (PPP) in USD 9,989 21,005 GDP per capital (PPP) in EURO 0.62 million 1.46 million Labour Force 0.61 million 1.43 million Employment 3-4% 1.8% Unemployment PRESENT & FUTURE STRUCTURE OF ECONOMY FOR ISKANDAR MALAYSIA The Vision IDR Economy “Strong, Diversified, Dynamic and Global” Services Educational Health Services Financial Services Creative The Main Pillars Petro Industries (Drivers) Electrical chemical Food and Logistic and and Agro and Tourism Electronics Oleo Processing related chemical Services ( Five Existing “Pillars” shall be reinforced ) ( Four New “Pillars” to be added ) Support Strong Supporting Industries ( Metal Products, Engineering, Non-metallic, Manufacturing Related Services (MRS)) System Strong Supporting Institutions (Education, R&D, Government, Private and social institutions, communication and coordination system) World-class Professionals and Technical Work Force Basic Excellent Physical, Infrastructures, including IT Foundation Excellent Working and Living Environment Stable Political, Social Environment The well established sectors which are manufacturing based will be reinforced while giving new emphasis on new sectors which are services based FLAGSHIP ZONES JB CITY CENTRE NUSAJAYA WESTERN GATE DEVELOPMENT EASTERN GATE DEVELOPMENT SENAI-SKUDAI Catalyst development to complement existing strategic industries in Johor 9 TOTAL COMMITTED INVESTMENT 2008-2009 INVESTMENT BY SECTOR 2006-2009 INVESTMENTS IN FLAGSHIP A 3 Johor Corp – upgrading KOMTAR - RM55mn -1.2 ha open car park -Start nov07, complete 2009 Danga Bay -Tune Hotels 1 Iskandar Investment - Oakwood Service Apartments • GDV: RM200 million Gerbang Perdana/JKR - CIQ To commence in July 08 (light vehicle) A CMP - Lido Boulevard •GDV: RM2.7bn Danga Bay - Danga Island Danga Bay - Casa Almyra •GDV: RM790 million •Target sales launch April 2008 GDV RM125mn 2 Target for completion 2009 Danga Bay – Promenade Danga Bay - Grand Siam Hotel Cost: RM120mn Start (April 2008)Target for completion 2010 12 INVESTMENTS IN FLAGSHIP B UEM Land - Southern Industrial Logistics Clusters Iskandar Investment- MEDINI 5 • Thematic Industrial Park GDV : RM42bn 6 Iskandar Investment – • GDV: RM1.8bn Mixed Urban Development International Destination Resort • Key signings: HG Metal, Jurong Tech GDV: USD1.5-2.0bn 3,321 acres Target to announce by Dec 08 4 1 UEM Land - Johor State New Admin.Centre (JSNAC) • GDV: RM1.5bn B • Won M’sian Institute of Planners • Excellence Iskandar Investment - EduCity 3 Award 2008 • GDV: >RM1 bn over 7 years, area: 305 acres • Newcastle Univ invited to set up medical faculty in educity 2 UEM Land - Afiat Healthpark UEM Land - Puteri Harbour • Signed BLA with Columbia Asia • GDV: RM13bn JV KST (60%): Symphony Int (40%) for 70-bedded hospital. • Key signings: Limitless, Dubai World Aman Resort (46 acres) Cost: RM58mn, 2008-2010 INVESTMENTS IN FLAGSHIP C 1 MMC Corp PTP – expansion (RM1.5bn) •Berth 11, 12, 13 and 14 •Capacity to increase by 3.2mn TEUs to 11.2mn TEUs by 2010 •Expected to attract additional FDI of RM5bn by 2010 2 MMC Corp/Dubai World Maritime Centre at Tg Bin C •Initial investment of RM2.0-2.3bn, • Total expected FDI of RM17-20bn •Total area of 2,255 acres Asia Petroleum Hub – KIC 3 •Key activities: Bunker Terminal in Tanjung Bin •Port-related Industrial & Commercial •GDV: RM1.4 billion activities •Built on manmade island • General Cargo Terminal suitable for non- •located 700m from PTP containerized cargo, heavy cargo & ro-ro • Liquids Terminal with jetties, tank farms and processing plants •Employment of > 3,000 14 INVESTMENTS IN FLAGSHIP D Johor Corp RM500mil plant to make flexible pipes in Tanjung Langsat Industrial area – Technip Johor Corp Group (France) Acerinox and Nisshin RM5 bil steel plant inTanjung Langsat D Johor Port and Pasir Gudang Industrial Area Johor Corp Pacific Oleo chemical (subsidiary of Lam Soon) to construct a RM300mil oleo chemical plant in Tanjung Langsat 15 INVESTMENTS IN FLAGSHIP E 1 MMC Corp Bhd Johor Premium Outlets •Intergrated Airport City in Senai MMC Corp Bhd 2 Senai Hi-Tech Park 1,000 acres Submission of E masterplan in June Johor Corp Johor Technology Park & Sedenak Industrial Park MSC Cyberport Johor Cybercity in Senai 148 acres Cost : RM400mn (phase 1) Key Design Characteristics Participating Model: ExSS (Extended Tool Snapshot) Model Type: Energy Integrated Model Participating Modelers: Matsuoka Yuzuru, Gomi Kei, Shimada Koji, Yoshimoto Kohsuke, Janice Simson and Ho Chin Siong Time Step: 1 year Time Frame: 2005 to 2025 Solution Type: Static, Accounting method Equilibrium Type: Market Equilibrium Underlying Computing Framework: General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMs) and Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. Inputs and Outputs Key inputs Demographics: population by region/ local authority, population composition ratio by sex and age cohort, average household size. Economic: Labor force participation ratio by sex and age cohort, Export value (demand of goods and services from other areas by industrial classification), Import rate (rate supplied from industry outside the area, among the demand of goods and service within the area.), Government expenditure (gov. consumption expenditure, gov. fixed capital formation) Resources: Coal & gas, crude oil, petroleum product, renewable energy, nuclear, hydro power, and electricity. Technology: Technology representations of production, transformation and use technologies. Key outputs Economic: GDP, Gross output by sectors (primary, secondary & tertiary industry), passenger transport & freight transport Energy: Energy balance table, GHG emission inventory. Emissions: CO2 emissions by sectors (residential, commercial, industrial, passenger transport & freight transport) Climate: GHG reduction by measures . Regional Scope & Other Detail Regional Profile: Regional Scope: District level Number of Sub-Regions: five Flagship zons: Johor Bahru City Center, Nusajaya, Western Gateway Development (Pontian), Eastern Gateway Development (Pasir Gudang), Senai-Skudai. Other Details: Energy Demand Sectors: Residential, Commercial, Industry, Freight Transportation, Passenger Transportation, Energy Supply Sectors: Coal & gas, crude oil, petroleum product, renewable energy, nuclear, hydro power, and electricity Other Sectors: - Setting of Framework Base Year : 2005 Target Year 2025 Emission Target 30% reduction of CO² per capita from 2005 to 2025 with Counter Measures 50% reduction of CO² emission from 2025BaU to 2025CM Scenarios 2025 BaU (business as usual) without Counter measures 2025 CM with Counter measures Sensitivity analysis Economic activity level Commuting structure 20 Energy Demand By Sector 10,936 12,000 Freight transport Energy demand in IM is Passenger projected to increase from transport 10,000 1,442 3,286 ktoe (toe: tonne oil Industry 232% equivalent) in 2005 to 790 10,936 ktoe in 2025 for the 8,000 5,915 BaU case (BaU: business as usual) 6,000 834 3,286 6,635 253 4,000 Industry is expected to be Energy Energy demand (ktoe) . 6,635 ktoe and will maintain 572 3,494 the largest share of 61%. 359 2,000 1,733 978 685 382 240 1,091 649 0 2005 2025 BaU 2025 CM 21 Energy Demand by Energy Sources Coal 12,000 Hydro power 10,000 1,844 Solar & wind Increase in demand power for natural gas (3.2 61 Biomass times) the 8,000 consumption in 2005. 3,854 6,000 964 Energy sources such 33 as biomass, solar 193 and wind power will 4,000 447 be newly introduced Energy Energy demand (ktoe) . 289 for primary energy in 60 3,694 2025 CM case. 1,209 4,978 2,000 1,729 788 0 2005 2025 BaU 2025 CM 22 GHG Emission By Sector GHG Emissions in IM are projected to increase from 12,552 50,000 45,484 Freight transport ktoe CO2 (2005) to 45,484 ktoe CO2 (2025 45,000 Passenger 4,070 transport BaU) 40,000 1,672 Industry Commercial Industry Sector will 35,000 increase 4.1 times in total as compared to 30,000 2004 in GHG emission . 24,832 25,000 (54%of total GHG 19,589 emission in 2025 BaU) 20,000 1,481 12,552 447 15,000 GHG emissions per GHG emissions (ktCO2) .
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