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Deployment of Anti-Missile Systems Is in South Korea's Best Interest

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Deployment of Anti-Missile Systems Is in South Korea's Best Interest Resolved: Deployment of anti-missile systems is in South Korea’s best interest. September/October 2017 PF Brief* *Published by Victory Briefs, PO Box 803338 #40503, Chicago, IL 60680-3338. Edited by Jami Tanner. Contributions by Matt Salah, Alex Chin, Annie Zhao, Austin Hopkins, and Abe Fraifeld. For customer support, please email [email protected] or call 330.333.2283. This product is licensed to [email protected] by Victory Briefs. Any distribution or modification of this file not explicitly allowed by the terms of purchase (including removing or obscuring this text or sending to anyone outside Amy Zuccaro's school) is a violation of copyright. Please report illicit distribution of this file to [email protected]. Contents 1 Topic Analysis by Matt Salah 5 1.1 Background ................................... 5 1.2 Framework .................................... 8 1.2.1 Whose missile defense? ........................ 8 1.2.2 Which missile defense? ........................ 8 1.2.3 How much missile defense? ...................... 10 1.3 Pro Arguments / Strategy ........................... 11 1.3.1 Safety from North Korea ........................ 11 1.3.2 The US-ROK Alliance ......................... 14 1.4 Con Arguments / Strategy ........................... 15 1.4.1 Chinese Backlash ............................ 15 1.4.2 Angering North Korea ......................... 17 2 Argument Guides by Austin Hopkins 19 2.1 Argument Guide 1: THAAD can protect South Korea from missiles. .. 19 2.1.1 THAAD has a high likelihood of intercepting missiles ...... 19 2.1.2 Responses to “THAAD has a high likelihood of intercepting mis- siles” ................................... 20 2.1.3 Defense of “THAAD has a high likelihood of intercepting missiles” 24 2.2 Argument Guide 2: THAAD Upsets China ................. 27 2.2.1 THAAD upsets China ......................... 27 2.2.2 Responses to “THAAD Upsets China” ................ 30 2.2.3 Defense of “THAAD Upsets China” ................. 34 2.3 Argument Guide 3: Sanctions ......................... 36 2.3.1 China’s unofficial sanctions have hurt the South Korean economy 36 2.3.2 Responses to “China’s unofficial sanctions have hurt the South Korean economy” ........................... 38 2.3.3 Chinese relations are key to North Korean sanctions ........ 39 2.3.4 Responses to “Chinese relations are key to North Korean sanctions” 41 2 This product is licensed to [email protected] by Victory Briefs. Any distribution or modification of this file not explicitly allowed by the terms of purchase (including removing or obscuring this text or sending to anyone outside Amy Zuccaro's school) is a violation of copyright. Please report illicit distribution of this file to [email protected]. Contents 2.3.5 Defense of “Chinese relations are key to North Korean sanctions” 43 2.4 Argument Guide 4: THAAD as a bargaining chip ............. 44 2.4.1 THAAD can be an effective bargaining chip ............ 44 2.4.2 Response to “THAAD can be an effective bargaining chip” .... 46 2.4.3 Defense of “THAAD can be an effective bargaining chip” .... 47 3 Pro Evidence 51 3.1 North Korea/South Korea Conflict ...................... 51 3.1.1 Diplomacy ................................ 51 3.1.2 South Korea’s Interests ......................... 62 3.1.3 THAAD Protects South Korea .................... 64 3.1.4 South Korea’s Interests ......................... 70 3.1.5 THAAD Deters North Korean Attacks on South Korea ...... 71 3.1.6 North Korean Nuclear Weapons Pose a Serious Threat ...... 75 3.1.7 North Korean Collapse ......................... 79 3.1.8 Safety from North Korea ........................ 82 3.1.9 Other AMS ............................... 141 3.2 US-South Korea Alliance ............................ 144 3.2.1 US-South Korea Relations ....................... 144 3.2.2 South Korean nuclearization ..................... 160 3.3 Preemptive Strike ................................ 201 3.3.1 Strategic Patience ............................ 201 3.3.2 THAAD Enables First Strike ..................... 203 3.4 China ....................................... 210 3.4.1 China Precedent ............................ 210 3.4.2 Chinese Nuclearization ........................ 225 3.5 Japan ....................................... 229 3.5.1 Japanese Militarization ......................... 229 3.5.2 Japan Nuclearization .......................... 231 3.6 Other Impacts .................................. 234 3.6.1 Military Industrial Complex ...................... 234 3.6.2 Environmental Harm .......................... 236 3.6.3 Arms Races (General) ......................... 237 4 Con Evidence 238 4.1 Missile Defense Doesn’t Defend South Korea ................ 238 4.1.1 No realistic missile system can defend South Korea ........ 238 3 This product is licensed to [email protected] by Victory Briefs. Any distribution or modification of this file not explicitly allowed by the terms of purchase (including removing or obscuring this text or sending to anyone outside Amy Zuccaro's school) is a violation of copyright. Please report illicit distribution of this file to [email protected]. Contents 4.1.2 THAAD Doesn’t Work to Protect South Korea ........... 241 4.1.3 Missile Defense Has Weak Theoretical Backing ........... 244 4.1.4 Missile Defense Encourages The Development of Countermeasures246 4.1.5 Diplomacy ................................ 251 4.2 United States ................................... 255 4.2.1 Preemptive Strikes ........................... 255 4.2.2 On Site .................................. 265 4.2.3 Militarism Links ............................ 266 4.2.4 Militarism impacts ........................... 273 4.2.5 China ................................... 277 4.2.6 Chinese Arms Race ........................... 277 4.2.7 Chinese Economic Sanctions ..................... 302 4.2.8 Chinese Sanctions ........................... 307 4.2.9 Diplomacy ................................ 313 4.3 Missile Defense Causes Arms Races (Various Countries) ......... 321 4.3.1 North Korea ............................... 321 4.3.2 Japan ................................... 326 4.3.3 Russia .................................. 333 4.3.4 Taiwan .................................. 338 4.4 South Korean Public Opinion ......................... 348 4.4.1 People of SK don’t want THAAD ................... 348 4.4.2 Protests ................................. 350 4.5 Other Impacts .................................. 354 4.5.1 Russia China Alliance ......................... 354 4.5.2 Space Militarization .......................... 361 4.5.3 Environmental Impacts ........................ 366 4 This product is licensed to [email protected] by Victory Briefs. Any distribution or modification of this file not explicitly allowed by the terms of purchase (including removing or obscuring this text or sending to anyone outside Amy Zuccaro's school) is a violation of copyright. Please report illicit distribution of this file to [email protected]. 1 Topic Analysis by Matt Salah Matt Salah debated for four years at the Nueva High School in San Mateo, California. As a member of the first graduating class of his high school, Matt played a large role in founding and establishing the debate team at Nueva. Some of his most notable accomplishments include championing the Tour- nament of Champions (2017), the ASU Invitational (2017), and the Bronx Science Tournament (2015). He will begin school at Swarthmore college this fall, where he plans to study political science. 1.1 Background The 2017 September-October Public Forum resolution is shockingly relevant. Since the beginning of the summer, North Korea has launched four missile tests (including two intercontinental ballistic missiles, or ICBMs), developed the capacity to strike most of the continental United States, and threatened to attack the US military base in Guam (only to later withdrawal the threat), South Korea has halted deployment and later rede- ployed the controversial anti-missile system known as THAAD, and Trump has sworn to make North Korea sorry by bringing down “fire and fury.” Major news networks have aired round-the-clock coverage of the Korean threat, journalists have compared the situation to the Cuban Missile Crisis, and John Oliver wove together an informative expose of Kim Jong Un’s motivations (follow the footnote to find the video, it’s a fun way to start thinking about the topic).1 How did we get here? BBC News offers an insightful chronology of the North Korean threat (I’m only including snippets—follow the footnote below to read the full timeline): 1946 - North Korea’s Communist Party, called the Korean Workers’ Party, in- augurated. Soviet-backed leadership installed, including Red Army-trained 1Last Week Tonight. “North Korea: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO),” YouTube. 8-13-2017, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrS0uNBuG9c 5 This product is licensed to [email protected] by Victory Briefs. Any distribution or modification of this file not explicitly allowed by the terms of purchase (including removing or obscuring this text or sending to anyone outside Amy Zuccaro's school) is a violation of copyright. Please report illicit distribution of this file to [email protected]. 1 Topic Analysis by Matt Salah Kim Il-sung. 1950 - South declares independence, sparking North Korean invasion and the Korean War. 1953 - Armistice ends Korean War. 1972 - North and South Korea issue joint statement on peaceful reunification. 1985 - North Korea joins the international
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