East Asia Strategic Review Major Powers and the Korean Peninsula Powers and the Korean Major Politics, Policies and Perspectives Policies Politics, The Korean Peninsula, which constitutes one of the strategic pivots of Northeast Asian security, has remained a contested theatre for major powers. Denuclearisation of the Peninsula is unfolding as one of the most defining challenges in shaping regional security. The end state in the Peninsula and how it is to be realised is debated amongst the stakeholders. This book aims to situate some of the critical issues in the Korean theatre within the competing geopolitical interests, strategic Major Powers and the Korean Peninsula choices and policy debates among the major powers. This volume is an endeavour to bring together leading Indian experts including former Indian ambassadors to the Republic of Korea, and senior members Politics, Policies and Perspectives from the defence and strategic community to analyse the developing situation in the Korean Peninsula. Dr. Titli Basu is an Associate Fellow at IDSA. Her research interests include strategic affairs in East Asia, with particular focus on Japan and Korea. Titli Basu (Ed.) Editor ` 1280.00 ISBN 978-93-89137-15-6 Titli Basu KNOWLEDGE WORLD KW PUBLISHERS PVT LTD www.kwpub.com Jacket design by Artact East Asia Strategic Review Major Powers and the Korean Peninsula: Politics, Policies and Perspectives East Asia Strategic Review Major Powers and the Korean Peninsula: Politics, Policies and Perspectives Editor Titli Basu KNOWLEDGE WORLD KW Publishers Pvt Ltd New Delhi Copyright © 2019 Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without first obtaining written permission of the copyright owner. Disclaimer: The views expressed in this book are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, or the Government of India. Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses No. 1, Development Enclave, Delhi Cantt. New Delhi-110010 Phone: +91-11-26717983 Website: www.idsa.in ISBN 978-93-89137-15-6 Hardback Published in India by Kalpana Shukla KW Publishers Pvt Ltd 4676/21, First Floor, Ansari Road Daryaganj, New Delhi 110002 Phone: +91 11 23263498/43528107 Marketing: [email protected] Editorial: [email protected] Website: www.kwpub.com Printed and bound in India The content of this book is the sole expression and opinion of its author(s), and not of the publisher. The publisher in no manner is liable for any opinion or views expressed by the author(s). While best efforts have been made in preparing the book, the publisher makes no representations or warranties of any kind and assumes no liabilities of any kind with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the content and specifically disclaims any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness of use of a particular purpose. The publisher believes that the contents of this book do not violate any existing copyright/intellectual property of others in any manner whatsoever. However, in case any source has not been duly attributed, the publisher may be notified in writing for necessary action. Contents Acknowledgements vii List of Contributors ix 1. Introduction: Mapping the Korean Conundrum 1 Titli Basu Part I: Politics and Policies in the Korean Peninsula 2. Is it Spring Time in the Korean Peninsula? 25 Vishnu Prakash 3. Proliferation and the Korean Peninsula: The Making of North Korea’s ‘Mature’ Nuclear Enterprise 43 Manpreet Sethi 4. Sanctions as an Instrument of Non-proliferation Policy: The North Korean Experience 65 Kapil Patil 5. North Korean Economy: Failure of UNSC Sanctions 91 N. Parthasarathi 6. Demilitarized Zone: Legacy of Status Quo 120 G.G. Dwivedi Part II: Major Powers and the Korean Peninsula 7. The US Grand Strategy and Preference in Korean Peninsula 135 Namrata Goswami 8. Beijing and the House of Cards in the Korean Peninsula 165 Jagannath P. Panda vi | Major Powers and the Korean Peninsula 9. China-North Korea Military Relations 191 Mandip Singh 10. South Korea’s Approach to North Korea under President Moon Jae-in 207 Jojin V. John 11. Russia and the North Korean Challenge 226 Manabhanjan Meher 12. Rethinking Japan’s North Korea Strategy: In Cross-Currents between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump 260 Titli Basu Part III: India and the Korean Peninsula 13. Korea in India’s Look and Act East Policy 283 Prashant Kumar Singh 14. India’s North Korea Relationship: A Case of Limited Aims and Strategic Calculations 316 M.S. Prathibha Part IV: Beyond the Singapore Summit 15. Singapore to Hanoi: Southeast Asia and the Korean Peninsula 335 Anushree Chakraborty 16. The Denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula: Possible Outcomes of the US-North Korea Dialogue 353 Balachandran Gopalan and Jyotishman Bhagawati Index 366 Acknowledgements The East Asia Centre at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) has been publishing annually a comprehensive compendium focussing on one of the major themes dominating the East Asian security architecture. As major powers engage North Korea, the denuclearisation of the Peninsula is unfolding as one of the most defining challenges in shaping regional security. As the future of the region continues to remain plagued by the developments in the Korean theatre, the theme of this volume, Major Powers and the Korean Peninsula: Politics, Policies and Perspectives, was decided with the objective of advancing understanding and analyses on critical issues shaping the future designs in the Peninsula. IDSA’s maiden volume on the Korean Peninsula would not have been possible without the erudite and dynamic leadership from Director General, Amb. Sujan R. Chinoy. I would like to express my deepest gratitude for the institutional support extended by IDSA leadership in facilitating this volume. This work has been enriched by the unfailing support and encouragement from my colleagues at the East Asia Centre. I would particularly like to thank Dr. Jagannath P. Panda, Coordinator of the East Asia Centre, for his guidance in the early stages of planning this volume. My colleague, Mr Vivek Kaushik has been greatly supportive in providing editorial assistance and administrative support for this publication. I would like to thank all the authors for bringing in their wealth of expertise into this volume. I deeply appreciate them for investing time in participating and brainstorming during the workshop held in May 2018, and subsequently develop their analyses, as reflected viii | Major Powers and the Korean Peninsula in the chapters. This volume is intended to advance academic debates, discussions and scholarly deliberations on critical issues in the Korean Peninsula. However, neither IDSA nor the editor assumes any responsibility for the author’s individual arguments and perspectives. Any factual incongruities in any of the chapters in the volume are the sole responsibility of the individual author. Dr. Titli Basu List of Contributors Amb. Vishnu Prakash is a lawyer (a gold medallist) by training and a diplomat by profession. He retired as India’s High Commissioner to Canada in November 2016 after over 35 years in the Indian Foreign Service. Prior to that he was Ambassador to South Korea, Official Spokesperson of the Ministry of External Affairs, and Consul General to Shanghai. He also served at various positions in Tokyo, New York, Moscow, Islamabad, Vladivostok, and Cairo. Ambassador Prakash spent a sabbatical with the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Hawaii in 1996. In 2013, he was conferred an Honorary Doctoral degree in Business Administration by Tongmyong University, Busan (South Korea). He got recognition as the ‘Ambassador of the Year 2014’ by the Asia Society, Korea Centre. Presently he is a foreign affairs analyst and columnist. His areas of interest include the Indo-Pacific region, especially North East Asia, the ASEAN region, and Pakistan, as also the US, Canada, and Israel. He has been writing for the Hindustan Times, The Asian Age, The Korea Times, The Quint and various think tanks, among others. He is widely published and regularly appears as an expert panelist on electronic media. Dr. Manpreet Sethi is a Distinguished Fellow at the Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi where she heads a project on nuclear security. She is the recipient of the prestigious K. Subrahmanyam Award, an honour conferred for excellence in strategic and security studies. This recognises her contribution to the fields of nuclear energy, strategy, non-proliferation, disarmament, arms and export controls, and BMD over the last 20 years. She has published over x | Major Powers and the Korean Peninsula 90 articles in several reputed journals, and has eight books to her credit. Her book, Nuclear Strategy: India’s March towards Credible Deterrence (2009) is deemed essential reading for many courses. She lectures regularly at all premier establishments of the Indian Armed Forces, the Indian Police, and the Indian Foreign Service. She was a Member of the Prime Minister’s Informal Group on Disarmament in 2012, and has been part of India’s Track-II initiatives. She has been a Member of the Executive Board of the Indian Pugwash Society, and is a Consultant with the global Nuclear Abolition Forum and Board Member, Asia-Pacific Leadership Network. Kapil Patil is Associate Fellow at the Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF), New Delhi. His research focuses on nuclear energy, WMD-proliferation, science, technology and national security-related issues. He submitted his doctoral thesis at the Jawaharlal Nehru University and is currently awaiting the Ph.D defence. Prior to joining the VIF, he worked as Senior Research Fellow with the Indian Pugwash Society, New Delhi for the BRNS- DAE research project. He is a co-author of the book, India’s Nuclear Energy Programme: Challenges, Prospects, and Public Concerns, published in 2014.