How Long Will US Forces Continue to Occupy Japan and Korea? China

Volume 8 | Issue 33 | Number 1 | Article ID 3401 | Aug 13, 2010 The Asia-Pacific Journal | Japan Focus How Long Will US Forces Continue to Occupy Japan and Korea? China, the US and the New Division of Power in the Asia-Pacific 米軍はいつまで日韓に駐留するか田中宇 •Japanese original available Tanaka Sakai How Long Will US Forces Continue Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North to Occupy Japan and Korea? China, Korea) for the Cheonan incident, which took place in late March, leading to intensification of the US and the New Division of the conflict between North and South. Power in the Asia-Pacific Influenced by this, the handover of occupational command (OPCON), from the US Tanaka Sakai to the South Korean military, which had been Translation by Kyoko Selden expected to occur in 2012, has been postponed until 2017 or sometime thereafter. In Japan, Japanese original text is available here [PDF]. the move of the US military in Okinawa to Guam, which had been planned to take place by Introduction 2014, is likely to be postponed until sometime after 2015, because of the inability to resolve In a May 7, 2010 report that was among the the Futenma Base issue and the delay of base first-and most controversial-anywhere toconstruction on Guam. 60 Years Into War, US dissect the South Korea-US verdict on the Delays South Korea Forces Handover sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan, Tanaka Sakai posed compelling questions about the official claims. The present article looks forward rather than back to assess possible regional and global ramifications of the Cheonan Incident for emerging power relations in the Asia-Pacific. Tanaka argues that, together with the failure to resolve the issue of the transfer of the Futenma base that is at the heart of the impasse in the US-Japan-Okinawa relationship, the stalemate over the Cheonan Incident illustrates the multipolarization of power that is part of the decline of American Figure 1: A giant crane lifts the stern of power and a redefinition of power relations in the Cheonan the Pacific consequent on China's rise. --Mark Selden The Cheonan Incident embodies the scheme of perpetual conflict similar to the Cold War and In late May this year, the government of the the War on Terror, so that the more the US and Republic of Korea (South Korea), instigated by South Korea criticize North Korea, the angrier the United States, publicly blamed theNorth Korea becomes, with the result that the 1 8 | 33 | 1 APJ | JF North-South conflict deepens. Therefore, the advantage, North Korea gained the advantage, Japanese and South Korean governments, loudly criticizing the results of the investigation which had been hopefully reconsidering their into the Cheonan Incident as a fraud concocted continuing dependence on the US, began to by the US and ROK at international meetings think that withdrawal of the US military from such as those held at the United Nations and Japan and Korea would be greatly postponed as ASEAN + 3. North Korea, from the time that the US and South Korea propounded the theory Kim Jong Il took office, did not adopt the that North Korea was the culprit in the strategy of openly speaking out in international Cheonan Incident. society, such as the UN, but tended to follow the strategy of a "guilty state," which does not However, the structure of blaming North Korea participate in international society, but earns for the Cheonan Incident is beginning to sway foreign currency by furtively smuggling, guns, unexpectedly quickly. In local elections in counterfeit currency and drugs. [North Korea South Korea, on June 2, ten days after the Expected to Steal ASEAN Spotlight] South Korean government announced the North's culpability, the Grand National Party However, after the false charge over the (Hannara) of Lee Myung-bak was surprisingly Cheonan Incident, North Korea completely unsuccessful. Pursuing the idea of the North's changed its attitude. Having the great cause culpability, South Korea imposed strongthat the US and South Korea were to blame for controls of speech and propaganda strategy on the false charge, it began to openly criticize the the media. When South Korean veterans held evil acts of the US and South Korea in forums meetings to criticize North Korea, despite the like the UN. A high Iranian official, who has fact that the gatherings were not large, the repeatedly criticized US for falsely charging media reported on them as if they reflected the that Iran was developing nuclear weapons in majority view of South Koreans. Such speech the UN and elsewhere, began to praise North control proved counterproductive, leading to th Korea, saying that Iran and North Korea "are setbacks for Lee's party in the June 15 South both independent revolutionary nations, trying Korean local elections. [At polls, South Korea to resist the world's ‘greedy powers.'" Iran,[ conservatives pay for response to Cheonan North Korea share common goals] sinking.] In response to the defeat, the Lee administration stepped back from the policy of confronting the North and instead advanced a policy of friendship (yūwa) with the North. The industrial complex in Kaesong, which is the symbol of economic cooperation between North and South, continued operations. Already at this point the South Korean strategy aiming at perpetual conflict with North Korea, "South Korea's 911," was weakened. The South Korean government's position further declined as weaknesses in the Cheonan report were pointed out one after another. South[ Korea softens tone with North] Figure 2: Kim Jong Il with China's Hu In contrast to South Korea losing theJintao on May 20, 2010 2 8 | 33 | 1 APJ | JF On July 9, the UN Security Council adopted a positions of superiority and inferiority. resolution criticizing the Cheonan Incident, but it was the product of compromise after the The US insists that the North is to blame, but debate between the US and South Korea, which the Council on Foreign Relations of the US insisted that the North was the attacker, and urges that "The United States should put China, Russia and North Korea who denied it. pressure on North Korea by holding Six-Party The UN resolution denounces the attacker that Talks and take back from China the leadership sank the Cheonan warship, but does not say on Korean peninsula issues." In reality, if Six- who the culprit is. North Korea proclaimed that Party Talks are held, the Cheonan Incident the resolution was its victory because it was verdict will be exposed, which will put the US not named. South Korea, too, proclaimed at a disadvantage, and the leadership of the victory because the culprit was the North. Korean peninsula will further pass from the US [Creative UN papers over the Cheonanto China. As usual the conduct of the Council on Foreign Relations is along the lines of covert incident.] multipolarization theory. US[ looks within, The reversal of superiority/inferiority Pyongyang looks to war] between North and South Korea The US military has repeatedly held talks with Following the UN resolution, North Korea the North Korean military at Panmunjom on the announced its willingness to participate in the North-South border. Reportedly, there was no Six-Party talks. Comments quickly spread to confrontation over the Cheonan Incident, but the talks were conducted in a friendly the effect that North Korea's starvation is atmosphere. [Amiable Mood for North Korea- worsening, so, to obtain food aid, it agreed to UN Military Talks: Officials] attend the talks, which it had previously refused. However, that is not in fact the case. The fact that the Lee Myung-bak administration North Korea probably intends to raise the of South Korea charged the North in the Cheonan issue, demanding a new investigation. incident has made the North more powerful, (The North's economy is improving. It is not in weakening the South. Lee, who did not even a state of starvation.)[North Korea takes win in the June local elections, must be desperate measures - Donald Kirk] regretting having announced the theory of the North's culpability. However, he cannot retract Among participants in the Six-Party Talks, now, because it would further strengthen the already Russia is denying North Korean North and his own political responsibility would responsibility and is siding with the North. be severely questioned. China must be the same. But China apparently intends to mediate between the North and the The theory of the North's culpability was not South to help them reconcile. Consequently, arbitrarily announced by the South Korean China made no comment, choosing to maintain government. Rather, South Korea was made to neutrality without endorsing either side. China go along with the US strategy of heightening and Russia will support the North Korean conflict and thus it landed in the quagmire of demand to redo the investigation of the failed plans. The theory of the North's Cheonan Incident with the participation of culpability was a product of consultation among North and South. If a reinvestigation isthe US, England, Australia, Sweden, that is, conducted, then the theory of North Korean representative of the "United Nations Forces," culpability will be undermined, so the South and South Korean military officers and does not wish to hold Six-Party Talks. North scholars. With the Swedish representative and South have become reversed in their unwilling to support the theory of NK 3 8 | 33 | 1 APJ | JF culpability, the countries that made up this have change course only by distancing itself camp were the Anglo Saxons. [South Korea in from the US. The South Korean left is the line of friendly fire] strengthening its claim that South Korea's dependence on the US meant that it had to They say that they prepared a 400-page report blame the North for the Cheonan Incident.

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