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Deloitte-ES-Financial-Advisory-The-Office-Handbook-Spain-2017.Pdf The Office Handbook Investment & Financing Keys Spain 2017 February 2017 Financial Advisory I Real Estate @ 2017 Deloite Financial Advisory 1 of 15 The Office Handbook Javier García-Mateo, MRICS Partner Financial Advisory ‖ Real Estate Spain 2017 [email protected] Mob: +34 659 90 02 15 @ 2017 Deloite Financial Advisory 2 of 15 ► Vacancy Rate in Madrid (11%) and Barcelona Key Investment (10%) slightly decreasing. and Financing Drivers The Office Handbook ► New Supply continues to increase. 155,000 4 2 sqm recently refurbished delivered in 2016 in Spain 2017 Madrid and Barcelona Supply & ► High Liquidity for both ► Take-Up in Madrid and Barcelona decreased by Equity and Lending due Demand 13% and 25%, due to the lack of large letting to the progressive entry of new EXECUTIVE SUMMARY deals. Nowadays, most offices buildings aim to players. become a Grade A to compete at a higher rent. ► Increasing lender i. Impressive building design. appetite for technical Grade ii. Connection to the user and deep A buildings (LEED/BREAM understanding of the millennial way of work. iii. Becoming a green and technological building. ► Low yields sets a barrier for higher LTVs for senior loan ► Prime Rent are experiencing a positive trend facilities structures. 1 due to the favourable macro-economic conditions. Market Overview Consolidation of the recovery Office Key 2015 vs 2016 Investment Market ► GDP growth: +3.3% 2016 (+2.5% 2017 F) 3 5 Factors ► Unemployment rate (2016) decreasing by 9.7% (CAGR) since 2013. ► EMEA region accounts for 35% of the total Office Full Due Diligence required to Investment volume. Spain accounts for 2% of this perform the optimal deal analysis: ► Exports growth: +4.5% amount. ► Financial Factors: Understanding of NOI vs GRI ► Increase in Business Confidence Index: ► In Spain, Office Investment volume in 2016 decreased ► Business Performance: Analysis of income +6.6% (Q4 14 –Q4 16), but was stable in by 8% (€4,895 M) and accounted for 40% of total sustainability analysis Q4 15/Q4 16 var. non-residential investment. ► Legal Factors: All intervenient contracts analysis. Urban and legal risks analysis. ► Creation of Companies Index: +1.5% in ► Tax Factors: Analysis of tax impact on results YoY Var. ► SOCIMIs (Spanish REITs) took part in 55% of total analysis Office transactions in Spain during 2016 ► Technical Factors: Identification of structural or ► MAD & BCN are the most competitive cities technical defects and compliance with regulations. in Europe as an alternative to London due to ► Madrid leads Europe in Capital Value growth (20%). (*) IMPORTANCE OF LEED/BREEAM CERTIFICATION. @ 2017Brexit Deloite. Financial Advisory Barcelona grows by 13%. 3 of 15 Office Market: Madrid & Barcelona outperform Europe Capital Values and Trend Yield Analysis The Office Handbook 10 Year Bond Spain 2017 Commercial 2015-2016 (18th January 2016) Investment 1.32% 0.80% 0.32% 1.39% 0.32% 0.32% 0.93% 0.43% 1.39% 0.66% 0.52% 1.91% n.a. 3.84% ▼38 bps ▼7 bps ▼15 bps ▼36 bps ▼15 bps ▼15 bps ▼6 bps ▼23bps ▼36 bps ▼18 bps ▼27 bps ▲35 bps ▲106 bps Europe and Spain Dif. 10 years bond – 183 bps 245 bps 333 bps 261 bps 388 bps 358 bps 332 bps 457 bps 236 bps 484 bps 348 bps 234 bps n.a. 141 bps EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Yield 2015 3.700 Capital Value Capital rent Drivers of the increase in crossOferta-border y per each €1 of Supply 3 % investment: 8 % 273.200 demanda € Accessibility to credit and 4 % 20 % moreand attractive financing 13 % 9 % 12 % 2.700 - % 22 conditions 1% 18 % 1 € 2.200 2 % 8 % 14 % YieldingDemand Assets are more 6 % 17 2016 attractiveCRE Market than - 1.700€ 2 Investment Grade Capital Values Growth (%) Growth Values Capital 2015 12 LeccionesSpain 2015 0 1.200 Dollar strength (For € 8% American investors) and Paris Milan aprendidas y Viena Berlin Dublin Lisbon Madrid Munich London 3 Euro weakness Brusels Frankfurt Barcelona perspectivasLecciones 7% Amsterdam Luxemburgo Politicalaprendidas and financial y uncertainly in certain 6% 4 regions perspectivasof Europe 5% 4% Europe has experienced a global yield compression from 3% 2016 2015 and now, which has resulted in - significant increases in Capital apart from the effect that 2% 2015 Values, Trend(%) Yield other market factors could have had @ 2017 Deloite Financial Advisory Min. 2007 Max. 2009 2015 2016 such as the trend in rent. 4 of 15 Source: Deloitte RE, Bloomberg 4 Brexit Opportunity The Office Handbook Spain 2017 From a cost perspective, Madrid and Barcelona are the most competitive cities despite the limited office space available. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Total Office Inventory vs Vacant Space at January 2017 (Mill. Sqm) 60 Key Drivers for the alternative cities to London 53 48 after the potential impact of Brexit: 50 Office Inventory and the MAD/BCN 40 current vacant space available 42 €m for companies 1 30 Rental Level and the 20 affordability of spaces for 13 12 potential companies 2 10 6 3.7 1.4 0.6 1.0 2.2 Total Costs for a company, PARIS FRANKFURT 0 including fit out costs and 207 €m 103 €m Madrid Barcelona Frankfurt Paris London 3 labor / wages costs Inventory (Mill. sqm) Vacant Space (Mill. Sqm) Quality of life and leisure Labour & Wages Av. Fit out Min. Contract Rent CBD Total costs for a opportunities for the costs Costs Duration (€/sqm/month) company* (€m) 4 employees (€/person/h) (€/sqm) (years) Madrid 29 21 693 3 42 Barcelona 21 21 693 3 41 Frankfurt 37 32 1,334 5 103 Strong competence Paris 65 35 1,422 9 207 between cities in Europe to London 124 26 1,028 7 138 attract companies *Total costs calculated for a company occupying 3,000 sqm in CBD with the after the Brexit Minimum contract per city and considering 1 employee/10 sqm working 8 Impact. Madrid and hours/day. Fit out Costs: Medium specification @ 2017 Deloite Financial Advisory Source: Deloitte, Eurostat Barcelona, potential options. 5 of 15 European Investment Market The Office Handbook Cepsa Tower (Spain) with €490m of Investment Spain 2017 Volume, was the fourth largest transaction of 2016 in Europe. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2% of the Total Office Investment of the analysed countries Poland Belgium €1,000m Germany Russia 19% €650m €730m France Spain 13% United Kingdom €490m 38% Switzerland Norway €220m 6% Ireland Italy Italy Spain United Kingdom Germany France 5% Netherlands Sweden PIAZZA CEPSA CITYPOINT COMMERZBANK 9 PLACE EDISON TOWER ROPEMAKER TOWER VENDÔME Poland Italy ST Office Office Office Office Sweden 1% Belgium Norway Office 4% 1% France Netherlands Russia 3% Ireland Switzerland 1% Germany 3% 2% Spain Source: Deloitte 2% United Kingdom BUYER BUYER BUYER BUYER BUYER Cepsa Tower. 4 Towers area. Trophy Assets Pontegadea Brookfield Office Pr. Samsung SRA Norges Bank IM VENDOR VENDOR VENDOR VENDOR VENDOR Nord Ovest IPIC Receiver - KPMG Commerzbank Sloane Cap. Part. 29,128 sqm 56,250 sqm 65,587 sqm 52,700 sqm 26,800 sqm @ 2017 Deloite Financial Advisory Source: Deloitte 6 of 15 European Investment Market The Office Handbook Spain with €4,895m of office investment volume in 2016, is Spain 2017 one of the most significant players in the European Market. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY GLA Price # Country Asset Buyer Vendor (sqm) (€m) 1 France 9 place Vendôme 26.800 1.000 Norges Bank IM Sloane Capital Partners European Yields (2016): 2 Germany Commerzbank Tower 52.700 730 Samsung SRA Asset Management Commerzbank/CFB-Fonds 64/ 65 3 United Kingdom CityPoint, Ropemaker St 65.587 650 Brookfield Office Prop Receiver - KPMG Minimum Prime Yield 4 Spain Cepsa Tower 56.250 490 Pontegadea IPIC Country last 5 France 65-67 avenue des Champs-Elysées 10.500 Middle-East investor Meyer Bergman & Thor Equities 2016 490 10 years 6 United Kingdom Principal Place 55.740 443 ENPAM (Italy) Brookfield Property Part France 3.25% 3.80% 7 United Kingdom The International Quarter 47.844 429 Deutsche Asset & Wealth Lend Lease 8 United Kingdom Aldgate Tower 30.193 402 China Life Insurance Co Aldgate Developments Ltd Germany 3.65% 4.00% 9 Germany International Business Campus 84.000 400 GEG German Estate Group AG RFR Holding GmbH UK 3.15% 3.75% 10 Spain Adequa 100.000 380 Merlin Properties - SOCIMI Lone Star 11 Germany Zurich Zentrale Köln 60.000 350 Warburg HIH Invest Strabag Real Estate; ECE Belgium 5.50% 4.80% 12 United Kingdom Fore Street, 1 21.998 315 Kingboard (Hong Kong) Brookfield Office Prop Spain 3.75% 3.80% 13 France CBX Tower 41.000 300 Tishman Speyer Properties France Dexia Crédit Local 14 Germany BayWa Hochhaus 54.000 280 WealthCap BayWa AG, Competo Capital Sweden 3.70% 4.25% 15 France 2-8 rue Ancelle 17.200 267 Amundi Uninail Rodamco Italy 4.25% 4.50% 16 Germany Treptowers 3 90.000 230 Blackstone Real Estate Partners n.a. 17 Italy Piazza Edison 29.128 220 Fondo Italia Trophy Assets - Hines Fondo Core Nord Ovest - Ream SGR Source: Deloitte 18 Italy Via Monterosa 91 86.086 220 AXA Selectiv'Immo and AXA CoRE Partners Group For more information see CHAPTER 4 (Key 19 Italy Via Lorenteggio, Vodafone Village 61.857 200 Coima Res SIIQ Real Estate Center (Carminati Gr) Investment and Financing Drivers) 20 France 115-123 boulevard Montmartre 9.500 176 Korea Post Natixis in the full report. 21 Spain Las Mercedes B.P. 80.000 140 GreenOak Standard Life Investments 22 Italy Piazza Cordusio 2 14.272 130 Bayerische Versorgungskammer Fondo Donatello - Comparto David 23 Spain Cuatrecasas HQ 15.094 124 Axiare Familia Reig 24 Spain Gas Natural HQ 32.000 120 IBA Capital Partners Gas Natural Fenosa Top 5 deals per country (UK, 25 Italy Via della Chiusa 25.000 120 AXA Group Northstar Germany, France, Italy and Spain) amount to €3,360m (2016).
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