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Evaluation of Avoided Grassland Conversion and Cropland Conversion to Grassland As Potential Carbon Offset Project Types

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Evaluation of Avoided Grassland Conversion and Cropland Conversion to Grassland As Potential Carbon Offset Project Types Evaluation of Avoided Grassland Conversion and Cropland Conversion to Grassland as Potential Carbon Offset Project Types An Issue Paper prepared for the Climate Action Reserve David Diaz, The Climate Trust [email protected] Benjamin Rashford, University of Wyoming [email protected] Steven De Gryze, Terra Global Capital [email protected] Sheldon Zakreski, The Climate Trust [email protected] Randal Dell, Ducks Unlimited [email protected] Meredith Niles, Terra Global Capital [email protected] The Climate Trust 65 SW Yamhill St., Suite 400 Portland, OR 97204 (503)238-1915 www.climatetrust.org Table of Contents 1 Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................... v 1.1 Project Type Definitions ................................................................................................................... v 1.2 Recent Trends in Cropland and Grassland Conversions .................................................................. v 1.3 Estimated Cost and Technical Potential for Emission Reductions ................................................ viii 1.4 Protocol Development Considerations ............................................................................................ x 1.5 Concluding Thoughts ..................................................................................................................... xii 2 Introduction ................................................................................................................................1 3 Background and Supporting Information ......................................................................................2 3.1 Definitions of Grassland and Related Terms ................................................................................... 2 3.2 How Potential Emission Reductions Are Estimated for this Paper .................................................. 5 4 Avoided Grassland Conversion (AGC) Characterized ......................................................................8 4.1 Scope and Definition of AGC and CCG Project Activities ................................................................. 8 4.2 Land Use Trends ............................................................................................................................... 9 4.3 Estimated Cost of Reductions ........................................................................................................ 33 4.4 Potential Reduction Opportunity ................................................................................................... 34 5 Conversion of Marginal Cropland to Grassland (CCG) Characterized ............................................ 35 5.1 Scope and Definition of Project Activities ..................................................................................... 35 5.2 Land Use Trends ............................................................................................................................. 40 5.3 Estimated Cost of Reductions ........................................................................................................ 46 5.4 Potential Reduction Opportunity ................................................................................................... 47 6 Project Protocol Considerations ................................................................................................. 48 6.1 Sources Sinks and Reservoirs ......................................................................................................... 49 6.2 Soil Carbon Stock Measurement and Stratification ....................................................................... 55 6.3 Potential for Standardized Additionality Testing ........................................................................... 57 6.4 Baseline Data Requirements .......................................................................................................... 68 6.5 Leakage Risks and Policy Options .................................................................................................. 73 6.6 Reversal Risks and Policy Options .................................................................................................. 76 6.7 Potential Co-Benefits and Negative Effects ................................................................................... 83 6.8 Monitoring and Verification Considerations ................................................................................. 85 7 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................. 87 8 Appendix A: Land Type Definitions ............................................................................................. 89 9 Appendix B: Conversion Rate and Land Value Tables................................................................. 100 10 Appendix C: Summary of Selected Policies Relevant for Determining Legal Surplus .................... 106 11 Appendix D: Synthesis of Existing Methodologies ..................................................................... 112 11.1 Synthesis of Methodology Approaches ................................................................................ 112 11.2 Review of Approved Methodologies, Modules, and Tools ................................................... 114 11.3 Review of Proposed Methodologies, Modules, and Tools ................................................... 131 11.4 Review of Other Relevant Documents .................................................................................. 148 12 Appendix E: Leakage Lit Review ................................................................................................ 151 12.1 Leakage Concepts and Typology ........................................................................................... 151 12.2 Estimating Leakage ............................................................................................................... 153 12.3 Review of Leakage Policies and Estimates ............................................................................ 160 13 References ............................................................................................................................... 166 List of Figures Figure 1: Gross conversion rates for grassland and shrub/scrub to cropland ............................................ vii Figure 2: Gross conversion rates for cropland to grassland and shrub/scrub ........................................... viii Figure 3: Geographic distribution of estimated technical potential for AGC activities ............................... ix Figure 4: Geographic distribution of estimated technical potential for CCG activities ................................ x Figure 3: IPCC climate zones for the continental US..................................................................................... 8 Figure 4: National-level land use trends from NRI dataset ......................................................................... 11 Figure 5: NRI acreage change over time ..................................................................................................... 12 Figure 6: Change in NRI rangeland (i.e., native grassland) acres by state, 1982-2007 ............................... 13 Figure 7: Change in NRI rangeland and pastureland acres by state, 1982-2007 ........................................ 14 Figure 8: Net change by NLCD land cover class, 2001-2006 ....................................................................... 16 Figure 9: Grassland conversion by NLCD major land classes, 1,000s acres ................................................ 17 Figure 10: Net change in NLCD grassland class by county, 2001-2006 ....................................................... 18 Figure 11: Net change in major NLCD land classes, 2001-2006, acres ....................................................... 19 Figure 12: Gross conversion rates for grassland and shrub/scrub to cropland .......................................... 22 Figure 13: Gross conversion rates from grassland to forest, development, and pasture/hay ................... 23 Figure 14: Enrollment in the Cropland Reserve Program (CRP), 1986-2011 .............................................. 25 Figure 15: Change in CRP enrollment from each county-level peak (1986-2010) to 2011 ........................ 25 Figure 16: CRP acres scheduled to expire between 2012-2018 ................................................................. 26 Figure 17: Average pasture rental rates ..................................................................................................... 29 Figure 18: 2011 Grassland Reserve Program payment rates ...................................................................... 30 Figure 19: Average rental rates for non-irrigated cropland ........................................................................ 31 Figure 20: Average rental rates for irrigated cropland ............................................................................... 31 Figure 21: Economic Research Service (ERS) Farm Resource Regions ........................................................ 32 Figure 22: Geographic distribution of estimated technical potential for AGC activities ............................ 35 Figure 23: Literature review of soil carbon sequestration potential under different conversion patterns and management ..........................................................................................................................
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