Evaluation of Avoided Grassland Conversion and Cropland Conversion to Grassland as Potential Carbon Offset Project Types An Issue Paper prepared for the Climate Action Reserve David Diaz, The Climate Trust [email protected] Benjamin Rashford, University of Wyoming [email protected] Steven De Gryze, Terra Global Capital [email protected] Sheldon Zakreski, The Climate Trust [email protected] Randal Dell, Ducks Unlimited [email protected] Meredith Niles, Terra Global Capital [email protected] The Climate Trust 65 SW Yamhill St., Suite 400 Portland, OR 97204 (503)238-1915 www.climatetrust.org Table of Contents 1 Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................... v 1.1 Project Type Definitions ................................................................................................................... v 1.2 Recent Trends in Cropland and Grassland Conversions .................................................................. v 1.3 Estimated Cost and Technical Potential for Emission Reductions ................................................ viii 1.4 Protocol Development Considerations ............................................................................................ x 1.5 Concluding Thoughts ..................................................................................................................... xii 2 Introduction ................................................................................................................................1 3 Background and Supporting Information ......................................................................................2 3.1 Definitions of Grassland and Related Terms ................................................................................... 2 3.2 How Potential Emission Reductions Are Estimated for this Paper .................................................. 5 4 Avoided Grassland Conversion (AGC) Characterized ......................................................................8 4.1 Scope and Definition of AGC and CCG Project Activities ................................................................. 8 4.2 Land Use Trends ............................................................................................................................... 9 4.3 Estimated Cost of Reductions ........................................................................................................ 33 4.4 Potential Reduction Opportunity ................................................................................................... 34 5 Conversion of Marginal Cropland to Grassland (CCG) Characterized ............................................ 35 5.1 Scope and Definition of Project Activities ..................................................................................... 35 5.2 Land Use Trends ............................................................................................................................. 40 5.3 Estimated Cost of Reductions ........................................................................................................ 46 5.4 Potential Reduction Opportunity ................................................................................................... 47 6 Project Protocol Considerations ................................................................................................. 48 6.1 Sources Sinks and Reservoirs ......................................................................................................... 49 6.2 Soil Carbon Stock Measurement and Stratification ....................................................................... 55 6.3 Potential for Standardized Additionality Testing ........................................................................... 57 6.4 Baseline Data Requirements .......................................................................................................... 68 6.5 Leakage Risks and Policy Options .................................................................................................. 73 6.6 Reversal Risks and Policy Options .................................................................................................. 76 6.7 Potential Co-Benefits and Negative Effects ................................................................................... 83 6.8 Monitoring and Verification Considerations ................................................................................. 85 7 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................. 87 8 Appendix A: Land Type Definitions ............................................................................................. 89 9 Appendix B: Conversion Rate and Land Value Tables................................................................. 100 10 Appendix C: Summary of Selected Policies Relevant for Determining Legal Surplus .................... 106 11 Appendix D: Synthesis of Existing Methodologies ..................................................................... 112 11.1 Synthesis of Methodology Approaches ................................................................................ 112 11.2 Review of Approved Methodologies, Modules, and Tools ................................................... 114 11.3 Review of Proposed Methodologies, Modules, and Tools ................................................... 131 11.4 Review of Other Relevant Documents .................................................................................. 148 12 Appendix E: Leakage Lit Review ................................................................................................ 151 12.1 Leakage Concepts and Typology ........................................................................................... 151 12.2 Estimating Leakage ............................................................................................................... 153 12.3 Review of Leakage Policies and Estimates ............................................................................ 160 13 References ............................................................................................................................... 166 List of Figures Figure 1: Gross conversion rates for grassland and shrub/scrub to cropland ............................................ vii Figure 2: Gross conversion rates for cropland to grassland and shrub/scrub ........................................... viii Figure 3: Geographic distribution of estimated technical potential for AGC activities ............................... ix Figure 4: Geographic distribution of estimated technical potential for CCG activities ................................ x Figure 3: IPCC climate zones for the continental US..................................................................................... 8 Figure 4: National-level land use trends from NRI dataset ......................................................................... 11 Figure 5: NRI acreage change over time ..................................................................................................... 12 Figure 6: Change in NRI rangeland (i.e., native grassland) acres by state, 1982-2007 ............................... 13 Figure 7: Change in NRI rangeland and pastureland acres by state, 1982-2007 ........................................ 14 Figure 8: Net change by NLCD land cover class, 2001-2006 ....................................................................... 16 Figure 9: Grassland conversion by NLCD major land classes, 1,000s acres ................................................ 17 Figure 10: Net change in NLCD grassland class by county, 2001-2006 ....................................................... 18 Figure 11: Net change in major NLCD land classes, 2001-2006, acres ....................................................... 19 Figure 12: Gross conversion rates for grassland and shrub/scrub to cropland .......................................... 22 Figure 13: Gross conversion rates from grassland to forest, development, and pasture/hay ................... 23 Figure 14: Enrollment in the Cropland Reserve Program (CRP), 1986-2011 .............................................. 25 Figure 15: Change in CRP enrollment from each county-level peak (1986-2010) to 2011 ........................ 25 Figure 16: CRP acres scheduled to expire between 2012-2018 ................................................................. 26 Figure 17: Average pasture rental rates ..................................................................................................... 29 Figure 18: 2011 Grassland Reserve Program payment rates ...................................................................... 30 Figure 19: Average rental rates for non-irrigated cropland ........................................................................ 31 Figure 20: Average rental rates for irrigated cropland ............................................................................... 31 Figure 21: Economic Research Service (ERS) Farm Resource Regions ........................................................ 32 Figure 22: Geographic distribution of estimated technical potential for AGC activities ............................ 35 Figure 23: Literature review of soil carbon sequestration potential under different conversion patterns and management ..........................................................................................................................