Monetary Policy Report 3/2008 Norges Bank
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Monetary Policy Report 3 08 October Reports from the Central Bank of Norway No. 4/2008 Monetary Policy Report 3/2008 Norges Bank Oslo 2008 Address: Bankplassen 2 Postal Address: Postboks 1179 Sentrum, 0107 Oslo Phone: +47 22 31 60 00 Fax: +47 22 41 31 05 E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.norges-bank.no Governor: Svein Gjedrem Deputy Governor: Jan F. Qvigstad Editor: Svein Gjedrem Design: Burston-Marsteller Printing: Tellus Works Reclamo AS The text is set in 10½ point Times New Roman / 9 point Univers ISSN 1504-8470 (print) ISSN 1504-8497 (online) Monetary Policy Report The Report is published three times a year, in March, June and October/November. The Report assesses the interest rate outlook and includes projections for developments in the Norwegian economy, analyses of selected themes and a summary of Norges Bank’s regional network reports. At its meeting on 3 September, the Executive Board discussed relevant themes for the Report. At the Execu- tive Board meeting on 15 October, the economic outlook was discussed. On the basis of this discussion and a recommendation from Norges Bank’s management, the Executive Board adopted a monetary policy strategy for the period to the publication of the next Report on 25 March 2009 at the meeting held on 29 October. The Executive Board’s summary of the economic outlook and the monetary policy strategy are presented in Sec- tion 1. In the period to the next Report, the Executive Board’s monetary policy meetings will be held on 17 December, 4 February and 25 March. 4 Table of Contents Editorial 7 1. Monetary policy assessments and strategy 8 Summary and monetary policy strategy 22 Boxes Norwegian financial crisis measures 11 Changes in the interest rate path 20 Monetary policy since the previous Report 24 2. The global economy, financial markets and commodity markets 26 Box The NIBOR market 27 3. Economic developments 37 Boxes Recent price developments 40 How does the financial crisis affect developments in the real economy? 44 Boxes 55 A summary of financial market events since June 56 Projections in Monetary Policy Report 2/08 og 3/08 60 Annex l Regional network 65 Annex ll Tables, charts and detailed projections 74 The Monetary Policy Report is based on information in the period to 23 October 2008. The monetary policy strategy in Section 1 was approved by the Executive Board on 29 October 2008. NORGES BANK MONETARY POLICY REPORT 3/2008 5 Monetary policy in Norway Objective The operational target of monetary policy is low and stable inflation, with annual consumer price inflation of approximately 2.5% over time. Implementation Norges Bank operates a flexible inflation targeting regime, so that weight is given to both variability in in- flation and variability in output and employment. In general, the direct effects on consumer prices resulting from changes in interest rates, taxes, excise duties and extraordinary temporary disturbances are not taken into account. Monetary policy influences the economy with a lag. Norges Bank sets the interest rate with a view to stabil- ising inflation close to the target in the medium term. The horizon will depend on disturbances to which the economy is exposed and the effects on prospects for the path for inflation and the real economy. The decision-making process The main features of the analysis in the Monetary Policy Report are presented to the Executive Board for discussion at a meeting about two weeks before the Report is published. Themes of relevance to the Report have been discussed at a previous meeting. On the basis of the analysis and discussion, the Executive Board assesses the consequences for future interest rate developments, including alternative strategies. The final decision to adopt a monetary policy strategy is made on the same day as the Report is published. The strategy applies for the period up to the next Report and is presented at the end of Section 1 in the Report. The key policy rate is set by Norges Bank’s Executive Board. Decisions concerning the interest rate are normally taken at the Executive Board’s monetary policy meeting every sixth week. The analyses and the monetary policy strategy, together with assessments of price and cost developments and conditions in the money and foreign exchange markets, form a basis for interest rate decisions. Communication of the interest rate decision The monetary policy decision is announced at 2 pm on the day of the meeting. At the same time, the Executive Board’s monetary policy statement is published. The statement provides an account of the main aspects of economic developments that have had a bearing on the interest rate decision and the Executive Board’s as- sessments. The Bank holds a press conference at 2:45 pm on the same day. The press release, the Executive Board’s monetary policy statement and the press conference are available on www.norges-bank.no. Reporting Norges Bank reports on the conduct of monetary policy in the Monetary Policy Report and the Annual Re- port. The Bank’s reporting obligation is set out in Section 75c of the Constitution, which stipulates that the Storting shall supervise Norway’s monetary system, and in Section 3 of the Norges Bank Act. The Annual Report is submitted to the Ministry of Finance and communicated to the King in Council and to the Storting in the Government’s Kredittmeldingen (Credit Report). The Governor of Norges Bank provides an assessment of monetary policy in an open hearing before the Standing Committee on Finance and Economic Affairs in connection with the Storting deliberations on the Credit Report. 6 Editorial Lower interest rate curbs impact Actions taken by the authorities in many countries seem to have warded off a collapse of the world’s banking sys- tems. Nevertheless, the uncertainty surrounding economic developments ahead is unusually high. It is fairly certain that the world economy will experience a meagre year ahead. In Norway, the effects of the financial crisis will also occur more rapidly and be more pronounced than the outlook seemed to imply only recently. Norway is still in a better position than most countries. The current account balance and government finances are solid. The Norwegian banking system is not large, and the financial position of Norwegian banks is sound. Moreover, the level of domestic activity remains high and inflation expecta- tions are well anchored. The krone has depreciated substantially. As long as in- flation is low and stable, the krone acts as an automatic stabiliser. Lower prices in foreign currency and reduced demand for our export products are being counteracted by the fall in the value of the krone. However, there have been wide variations, and the krone is expected to appre- ciate as the conditions in money and foreign exchange markets improve. The analysis in this Report implies, both in the short term and the somewhat longer term, a lower key policy rate than projected in June. Weight is given to moving forward the reduction in the key policy rate so that bank lending rates for households and firms are gradually reduced. Norwegian banks, households and some businesses have increased their borrowings considerably in recent years. It is important that the necessary deleveraging does not take place too abruptly. Lower interest rates, combined with liquidity measures, may curb the impact of the financial crisis on output and inflation. Svein Gjedrem 29 October 2008 NORGES BANK MONETARY POLICY REPORT 3/2008 7 Chart 1.1 Price of credit default insurance. A sample of US financial institutions' 5-year CDS1) prices. Basis points. 1 Monetary policy 2 July 2007 – 23 October 2008 1200 JPMorgan Chase 1200 Goldman Sachs Morgan Stanley assessments and 1000 1000 strategy 800 800 600 600 400 400 The financial crisis and the economic situation 200 200 There is unusually high uncertainty surrounding economic 0 0 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 developments ahead. The problems that arose in the US 1) Credit Default Swap. banking system have spread to most markets and coun- Source: Bloomberg tries. US and European financial institutions have suffered large losses. The crisis took a new and dramatic turn after Chart 1.2 Difference between 3-month money market rate and key policy rate expectations in the market.1) Percentage points. 5-day moving average. the US investment bank Lehman Brothers failed on 15 Historical (from 1 June 2007) and ahead (at 23 October 2008) September and the largest US savings bank Washington 4 4 Mutual was split up and partly acquired by JPMorgan Norway US Chase on 25 September following large losses on resi- 3 Trading partners 2) 3 dential mortgages. The price of credit default insurance increased up to mid-October, but has since declined (see 2 2 Chart 1.1). High counterparty and settlement risk has led to a considerable erosion of confidence between banks, 1 1 reducing their willingness to lend to each other. Credit channels dried up. Equity prices have declined and oil 0 0 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 and commodity prices have fallen. 1) The expected key rate is derived from Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) interest rates. For Norway, the estimates are based on the difference between the projected money market rate and key policy rate in this Report . Money market rate premiums have been high and volatile 2) The UK, the euro area, Japan, Sweden and the US. Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank (see Chart 1.2). The difference between money market rates and central bank key rates has been the widest since the international financial turbulence started in August last Chart 1.3 Implied volatility in the Norwegian exchange market.1) Based on 1-month currency option prices.