Michigan Journal of International Affairs April 2016

LETTER FROM THE EDITORIAL BOARD

he past year has revealed leaders with uniquely firm grasps over their po- T litical spheres in all corners of the world. In this edition of the Michigan Jour- nal of International Affairs, we therefore take special note of individuals who loom large over their respective countries – defining fig- ures with national influence of international consequence. Interestingly, the rising promi- nence of strongmen and consolidated power on a global scale is not necessarily a reason for concern. As a number of our writers express in this issue, the presence of indispensable power-players is not the end of world affairs as we know it, but rather another chapter in the long history of singular power shaping the international system. In The Cycle Continues, Laura Vicinanza argues that Latin America is stuck in an endless loop of populism and predicts the rightward swing of the region’s governments. Vicinanza notes the emergence of a new genera- tion of leaders who no longer resemble the populist leaders of decades past. Regional Editor Emma Stout discusses the impending change in leader- ship in Angola in Changing Power in Angola. She contends that the Angolan presidency is likely to pass from father to son, an often undemocratic move by national leaders. She explains, however, that this is the country’s best option, regardless of charges of nepotism, due to allegations of corruption against the other chief candidate. Nick Serra writes in Italy and Eurozone Reform that Italian Prime Min- ister Mateo Renzi’s zeal, enthusiasm, and willingness to make unpopular decisions is often met with skepticism from his European Union counter- parts. Serra further argues that the EU is wrong to stymie Renzi’s efforts at reform and is only aggravating Italy’s economic issues. Secretary Brendan Failla maintains in Oman the Mediator and its role in Yemen that Oman’s monarch, Sultan Qaboos, was vital in bringing Iran to the table for the P5+1 nuclear talks. Failla further postulates that Qaboos is an essential partner in brokering peace in the region, particularly in Yemen. In The Best or Only Option, Managing Editor Trevor Grayeb asserts that, despite his plunging popularity, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is an essential player in the country’s national politics. Grayeb states that Abe’s loneliness at the top is more of a disservice to Abe himself than to the nation at large. “Sovereign Says” is a commentary on the rise of quiet dominance. It re- mains to be seen how this style of governing will affect the global political landscape in the years to come.

Michigan Journal of International Affairs, Editorial Board

CONTACT // [email protected] WEBSITE // MJIAUM.ORG

TABLE OF CONTENTS

APRIL 2016

AFRICA 1. El Niño in Africa: Far-Reaching Effects and Lasting Consequences– Africa Region Contributing Authors 3. Changing Power in Angola – Emma Stout 4. African Union Ready to Take the Helm for Human Rights? – Caitlin Thomas 5. Nationalism First, Democracy Later: Tanzania’s Strategy for Development – Sam Corey

AMERICAS 6. The Cycle Continues: The Inherent Flaws in Populism – Laura Vicinanza 7. The Rise of Quinoa: Feeding the Economy and Malnourishing its People – Connor VanDenBosch 8. Words Do Matter: How Anti-Zika Rhetoric Perpetuates Regional Sexism – Maria Fabrizio 9. Curtain Call for the Haitian Electoral Farce – Casimir M. Stone 10. Trudeaumania 2.0: Canada’s Liberal Honeymoon Proves Substantive – Meghan Rowley 11. From the Saint of Death to the Drug Trade: The Fall of Mexico’s Traditional Institutions – Ava Tavrazich

ASIA & OCEANIA 12. The Decline of Kiribati: Climate-Change Refugees – Sanuri Gunawardena 13. Fijian Mining Reform: A Path to Growth or Ruined Paradise – Akash Ramanujam 14. Peace in the Philippines: Out of Reach or an Election Away? – Hannah Feldshuh 15. Indonesian Hazy Development: Finding Sustainable Measures – Lanxin Jiang 16. The Best or Only Option: The Lack of Alternatives to Shinzo Abe – Trevor Grayeb 17. A Meaningless Merger – Trevor Grayeb 18. Can Stricter Sanctions Solve the North Korean Crisis – Megan Cansfield 20. The Wolves of Pyongyang: The Risky Rise of North Korea’s Market – John Soltis 21. Rainbow Flag Does Not Fly – Bing Sun 23. The Fate of Chinese Legal Reform: Rule by Law or Rule by Party? – Hannah Feldshuh 24. Strides and Stagnation: Policy Repsonses to Sexual Assault in India – Hannah Feldshuh 25. The Great Divide: Narendra Modi, Kanhaiya Kumar, and the Polarized Sedition Debate – Vineet Chandra 26. A Clean Shave: Tajikistan’s Dangerous Solution to Combating Extremist Ideology – Jack Ulses

EUROPE 27. Troubled Times? How a “Brexit” Could Damage Anglo-Irish Relations – Katherine Mercieca 28. How France Must Rethink Calais – Justin Berg 29. After Asylum: Sexual Education for Norway’s Migrants – Elisabeth Brennen 30. Italy and Eurozone Reform – Nick Serra 31. Germany: Neo-Nazis in a World of Rising Xenophobia – Sindhu Kadhiresan 32. Why Switzerland Holds the Key to Reforming FIFA – Tyler D. Coady 33. Evaluating New Democracies: Quick to Judge and Criticize – Olivia Singer 34. Ukraine’s Continuing Battle – Matt Rosenthal 35. NATO Enlargement: The West Continues Its Dangerous Policy of Encirclement – Andrew Beddow

MIDDLE EAST 36. How Reformers in Iran Can Show the World They are the Real Deal– Daniel Karr 37. The Time Has Not Come: Why Iraq’s Kurdistan is Not Ready for Independence – Ali Al Momar 38. Fifty Shades of Grey – Ryan Strong 39. A Two Front Battle: Women’s Rights and Reforms in Saudi Arabia – Misha Saleem 40. Oman, The Mediator, and its Role in Yemen – Brendan Failla 42. In the Saudi-Iranian Rift, Lebanon is the Real Loser – Ali N. Habhab 43. Behind Closed Doors: Informal Socio-cultural Dissidence in Iran – Nisreen Salka 44. The Forever War – Graham Steffens

El Niño in Africa Far-Reaching Effects and Lasting Consequences - Africa Region Contributing Authors

n 1600, the first written record of the was only moderately high—coming nowhere weather event called El Niño was recorded. near to the levels seen in 1997. Thankfully, it ap- INow, in 2016, coupled with already rising pears that the worst of El Niño is over, as most temperatures caused by global warming, much of the damage occurred between November and of the African continent is facing severe famine December. In fact, the increased rainfall has due to this weather pattern. It occurs every two actually yielded benefits for Kenyan crop per- to seven years and can last anywhere from six formance, expanding the agricultural economy. months to a year or even more in terms of its effects. What started around October of 2015 in Africa has now stretched into the New Year MALAWI and shows no sign of slowing down. This has – Laurel Cerier El Niño effects: December through February. disturbing implications for the African conti- WIKIMEDIA COMMONS egarding the physical effects of El nent. US President Barack Obama has drawn Niño, Malawi serves as a transition a relationship between rising temperatures and ing today. The country is in severe need of aid, R zone between Southern and Eastern ongoing food shortages. With this, the displace- but the ongoing conflicts in Syria and Yemen Africa; while the north is abnormally wet, con- ment of populations has led to a rise in recruit- have diverted most relief agencies’ attention. ditions in the south are especially dry. The gov- ment for terror groups such as Boko Haram and 2016 has been a year punctuated by calls from ernment of Malawi has declared much of its al Qaeda, both of which are active throughout the Ethiopian government for humanitarian northern territory a disaster zone due to flood- the continent. aid and the international community’s stub- ing caused by torrential rains in January, which As terrorist groups continue to make head- bornness to adequately respond. It is seemingly has displaced approximately 340,000 people. lines, little has been said about a larger kill- only the beginning of this devastating weather These dramatic weather conditions will have er spurned by this weather pattern: famine. event, and Ethiopia, along with countless other a devastating effect on the country’s economy. Ethiopia faces its most devastating famine in African nations, is in need of relief. Although it is already heavily reliant on in- years, Kenya and Mozambique have experi- ternational aid, the vast majority of Malawi’s enced flooding, while Zimbabwe has seen se- export economy comes from tobacco exports, vere droughts. Crop failures in South Africa KENYA and even while tobacco use is decreasing world- have affected its financial sector such that the – Samuel Corey wide, the country’s reliance on the product is country now risks a credit downgrade. El Niño t’s been a sizeable concern that the ongoing steadily increasing. Moreover, approximately continues to rip through the African continent, El Niño phenomenon would be the worst 90 percent of the population survives on sub- bringing in its wake increasing temperatures, I in Kenyan history. The changing weather sistence farming, of which the staple crop is famine, and flooding. pattern that can drastically distort the warmth maize, but the northern floods will cause an and wetness of a climate is concerning to Ke- estimated 28 percent decrease in maize pro- nya’s development, since many roads and pub- duction this year, increasing food prices even ETHIOPIA lic infrastructure are placed near mountainous more, which have already doubled since 2014. – Emma Stout regions, making them vulnerable to landslides. As such, food shortages will likely evolve into thiopia is perhaps the African coun- Historically, volatile weather patterns have famine. The UN is extremely concerned about try that has been hit the hardest by El wreaked havoc in Kenya. In 1997, the country severe malnutrition in children, especially right E Niño. The country has suffered under was hit particularly hard by El Niño. During now, as the first harvest is only just beginning. the worst drought it has seen in 50 years. Since that year, some 300,000 people were displaced El Niño is a weather pattern that lasts for several in East Africa, as food insecurity and disease years, there are some communities that have not skyrocketed, particularly in Kenya. In total, MOZAMBIQUE had rainfall in two years. In a country where 80 over one hundred Kenyans died. This year, – Stuart Richardson percent of the population lives in rural areas and much devastation has occurred during the wet or the underdeveloped coastal nation many depend on subsistence farming for their season, as over one hundred people have died of Mozambique, the effects of El Niño livelihood, this drought is extremely troubling. and about 100,000 have been displaced due Fhave varied significantly throughout the Now in 2016, the UN Office for the Coordina- to flooding. country. Thermal expansion in the eastern Pacific tion of Humanitarian Affairs has said that over In October, Kenya requested $15 billion to has exacerbated the effects of a two-year drought 10 million Ethiopians are in need of food aid. prepare for expected flooding in April. To pre- in the provinces of Maputo, Gaza, Inhambane, In the 1980s, El Niño devastated Ethiopia, vent against landslides and other natural di- Sofala, and Tete. Yet farther up Mozambique’s something the international community vowed sasters, Kenya set up a task force to reduce the coast, the torrents of the normal rainy season to never let happen again. Yet Ethiopia is suffer- damage caused by flooding. Ultimately, rainfall have caused widespread flooding. Two poten-

AFRICA // 1 tially cataclysmic events in different areas of Mo- Zimbabwean farmers are increasingly unable ing dynamics between droughts, flooding, zambique have thrown the government into a to provide for their families and some analysts and warming that can last for the next several crisis that has already drained its coffers. fear citizens may turn to more dangerous and years puts many countries in vulnerable posi- According to the Minister of State Admin- exploitative professions, such as panning for tions. In amalgamation with global warming, istration, Carmelita Namashalua, the govern- gold or mining as ways to earn income. The El Niño could bring even more devastating ment has directed most of its emergency funds increased number of people avoiding subsis- consequences. Unfortunately, due to restricted to the drought-stricken South because the situ- tence farmer during El Niño further contrib- national budgets and weak infrastructure, most ation there is much more dire and atypical for utes to the food shortages. Humanitarian as- of the developing world is in danger. Not just in the usually tropical nation. As of mid-February, sistance will be necessary to combat widespread Southern and Eastern Africa, but also in South the national government had allocated some famine and increasing malnutrition, not just America and the Pacific Islands. As the affected 560 million meticais (approximately 12 million within Zimbabwe but throughout much of countries continue to fight against nature itself, USD) toward its relief efforts. The National Di- Africa as well. they wait, perhaps in vain, for additional as- sasters Management Institute (INGC) had pro- sistance. There is hope that in the second half vided another 200 million meticais. The result of 2016, El Niño will largely pass, allowing af- of these emergency responses has been a com- SOUTH AFRICA fected countries to re-establish some normalcy. bined deficit of over 63 million meticais. Some – Emma Stout However, in the wake of such damage, it may Western nations, like the U.K., which is set to outh Africa is a country sometimes take years for the continent to return to pre-El contribute £11.8 million (about 16.7 million known as the “Bread Basket” of Africa. Niño production levels. • USD) over three years in emergency relief aid, S However, the shadow of El Niño has have stepped in to help relieve Mozambique of come over the land in recent years. Maize pro- this financial burden, but this foreign aid has duction dropped 25 percent in 2015, having fallen short of the need. Unless more monies already fell by 36 percent in 2014. The cattle begin replenishing Mozambique’s purse, up- industry has also been hit particularly hard by wards of 1.8 million people in the country will El Niño. In addition to the current water short- be in need of food by next year. age, the poor growing season from the previous year has reduced the grazing grounds available to ranchers. Farmers are now importing much ZIMBABWE of the food their cattle eat at great costs, driv- – Caitlin Thomas ing up the price of beef. arts of Southern Africa have been dra- While South Africa has a significant impov- matically affected by El Niño during erished population, it is also one of the most P the 2015-2016 harvesting season. While economically advanced countries on the con- some countries experienced extreme flooding tinent. Its economic advancement has allowed prior to the full onset of El Niño in 2014, Zim- the country to address the drought differently babwe suffered particularly poor rains. As a re- than poorer nations. Where others are facing sult of this reduced rainfall, maize production, widespread famine, South Africa is mostly fac- the staple crop of Zimbabwe, was significantly ing rising prices. Inflation is growing and the reduced. Due to the maize shortages, prices largest banks’ production growth estimates are inflated, leading to widespread famine. Now being slashed dramatically. The government has families are unable to afford rising food prices, been forced to reallocate funds towards drought and there are limited opportunities to earn sus- relief. Debt rating companies are taking a hard tainable income outside of subsistence farming. look at South Africa and the projected out- Zimbabwe’s wet season usually lasts from late come is not good. Many in the country worry October until early March, but El Niño has South African President Jacob Zuma, who has caused severe drought throughout the entire already been in hot water since renovations on wet season, indicating the possibility of dismal his presidential palace were scrutinized, is not crop productions in summer 2016. up to the task of leading South Africa through Some farmers turned to tobacco production this time of instability. in order to sell directly to national markets, but droughts have reduced the quality of tobacco Maybe the most intimidating aspect of El production, leading to lower market values. Niño is its capriciousness. The weather’s shift-

2 // AFRICA Changing Power in Angola

- Emma Stout

n March 11, 2016, Jose dos Santos, the ailing economy. He has a master’s degree the longtime President of Angola, in information management and finance, has Oannounced that he would leave of- worked with Songangol for many years, and fice in 2018. The next round of parliamentary was a board member on the African Innovation elections in Angola are scheduled for 2017 and Foundation. Also, as a member of the Sovereign despite Dos Santos’s announcement, the Peo- Wealth Fund, he has focused on investments ple’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola in Asia. Asian nations such as China have been (MPLA) party will certainly still pick him as important business partners for Angola, and their presidential candidate. This means that Zenú would be in an opportune position to whoever is the Vice President in 2017 will be President José Eduardo dos Santos addresses continue these strong relations. Dos Santos’s successor, effectively allowing him the public. WIKIMEDIA COMMONS Many, however, worry about the implica- to hand pick the next leader. While it is still tions of a dynastic transference of power, and early, there is a belief that dos Santos will choose Vicente is not a good choice for Dos Santos believe that Vicente should instead be Dos San- between his current Vice President, Manuel primarily because of the accusations of bribery tos’ successor. Vicente has years of experience Vicente, and his son, Jose Filomeno de Sousa against him. This is not the first time Vicente or and has been a public figure longer than Zenú dos Santos, also known as Zenú. Until his fa- other members of the Angolan elite have been has. However, Vicente’s corruption charges ther made him a board member of the Ango- implicated in corruption, but it is the first time and his connections to the current economic lan Sovereign Wealth Fund, Zenú was largely that he or any other Angolan political figure has downturn make Vicente the weaker choice. An out of the public eye. Vicente, on the other faced charges and a trial in Portugal, the former ideal result would be an open and free election, hand, is a well-known public figure. Recently, colonial ruler of Angola. Until recently, the two which could occur if Dos Santos was to step he was accused of corruption in a high profile countries had very close ties. Since Vicente has down before 2017, but this is highly unlikely. case in Portugal surrounding illegal oil deals. political immunity as the Vice President of An- It also creates an opening for violence that can Dos Santos has more to gain from naming his gola, this move by Portugal is largely symbolic, be associated with transitions of power in sin- son his successor, rather than his current Vice showing they do not support him or his actions. gle-party systems. It has been less than twenty President. Dos Santos’s legacy will improve im- Angola and Portugal have had extremely close years since the end of Angola’s civil war and any mensely if Zenú is able to improve the nation’s economic ties since Angola gained its indepen- amount of unrest caused by political factions troubled economy. Additionally, due to the dence in 1975. However, in the wake of Angola’s could renew violence. charge of corruption against Vicente made by economic downturn, it is important that they The next two years are important for Angola Portugal, naming Zenú would reduce the risk not threaten any of their Western alliances. as Dos Santos will make clear who his succes- of poorer relations between the two countries. Though Dos Santos fought against Western- sor will be or possibly renege completely on his Dos Santos has been a figure in Angolan backed Unita, since coming to power he has promise to leave office. If Dos Santos does not politics since 1970 and first became president worked to have good relations with the West. step down, the possibility of a violent power in 1979. He was a prominent figure in the 20 Having Vicente in power could threaten these transition becomes more likely in the case of his years of fighting between the MPLA and the relations. Additionally, the charges of corrup- death. Dos Santos’s lifetime appointment could western-backed National Union for the To- tion against Vicente would keep the allegations set a precedent for holding executive power in tal Independence of Angola (Unita). A party of Dos Santos’s own mismanagement of Sonan- Angola, which could hurt the country’s pos- leader for the MPLA, he is credited with ending gal funds fresh in the public’s mind. sible future attempts at transitions of power. the drawn-out civil war in 2002. There is some While transferring power to Zenú would No matter the outcome, this power transition skepticism over the truthfulness of his recent mean a dynastic transition for Angola, this is in Angola will have important implications for announcement, as Dos Santos has been hinting not necessarily a bad idea as the nation con- the country’s political future. • at his retirement for over a decade. However, tinues to struggle economically. Even planned this is the first time he has set a specific time- transitions of power can be fraught with tur- frame for his exit, leading people to believe he moil in single-party states when longtime rulers intends to follow through. Dos Santos himself leave office. While Dos Santos has lost some has grown less popular in recent years due to popularity in recent years, he is still an impor- falling oil prices, and there are now even more tant revolutionary figure for the nation. Zenú detractors who believe he should step down would be able to use his father’s revolutionary before the 2017 elections. Dos Santos has also clout to legitimize his rule, and provide for faced accusations of siphoning off oil wealth a smooth transition of power. Moreover, al- from the state-owned Sonangol, adding to his though Zenú has only recently become a pub- unpopularity. lic figure, his background is well suited to help

AFRICA // 3 African Union Ready to Take the Helm for Human Rights? - Caitlin Thomas

ust over a decade after the end of a brutal, Waiting for an international consensus on the twelve-year ethnic civil war, Burundi once extent of crimes and violence in Burundi allows Jagain faces a violent political crisis. Cur- rent president Pierre Nkurunziza’s controversial the situation to grow out of control and allows history decision to run for a third term in office resulted to repeat itself at the expense of human lives.” in widespread violence, demonstrations, and even a failed coup in the weeks before the July 2015 election. As the violence continues to es- ments claim that he will consider MAPROBU against humanity.” Leaders feel as though cur- calate, propelled by both opposition forces as to be an “invading force” and will take necessary rent violence cannot yet be identified as crimes well as the incumbent government’s security retaliatory action. Regardless of this defensive against humanity and that military interference forces, the African Union (AU) faces increased rhetoric, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon would further intensify violence. Regardless of international pressure to intervene. The AU be- issued a statement supporting the decision of the definition of what constitutes a war crime, gan talks with Nkurunziza to accept a proposed the AU, especially should they decide to send continued tensions may lead the government AU peacekeeping mission, called the African troops. Support from international organiza- and the opposition to seek a military, rather Prevention and Protection Mission in Burundi tions such as the UN is vital in strengthening than diplomatic, settlement. While President (MAPROBU), but Union leaders have since coordinated diplomacy. It is necessary that the Nkurunziza still has a monopoly on power and abandoned deploying peacekeeping forces after AU, the UN, and even the European Union an unwillingness for fair dialogue, the situa- Nkurunziza’s vehement opposition to the plan. have a unified voice against the violence in Bu- tion within the country will remain stagnant Instead, the AU is appointing a delegation to rundi in order to emphasize the international at best but could begin to resemble patterns of begin dialogues with Burundian leaders. An community’s growing scrutiny of the situation. destruction reminiscent of the ethnic conflict AU decision to take decisive action and create The delay in decisive action signifies the in Burundi during the late nineties. a precedent for intervention without consent hesitation and fear of creating a larger, more It is important to realize that inaction fails of the host government could stand as a testa- violent conflict in response to an unwanted AU to solve the problems at hand. Many citizens ment to the growing ability of the Union and presence within the country. However, the Af- do not trust their government and feel that it its commitment to pursue “African Solutions rican Union already faces criticism for its lack is illegitimate. Perceived illegitimacy will ulti- for African Problems.” Now is the time not of action. Opposition members in Burundi feel mately result in long term instability. Given the to act with delicacy and diplomacy, but with as though the AU has abandoned its principles lack of government accountability, it is impera- greater authority in order to end the violence while the government continues to use fear, co- tive that the AU send peacekeeping forces in and increase political stability within Burundi. ercion, and violence against its citizens. When order to help foster an environment open to The AU deployment of peacekeeping forces violence and corruption erupts within African dialogues. Furthermore, the presence of ground is more than just the creation of a pattern of nations, it is important for citizens to feel that peacekeeping forces emphasizes the mounting commitment to human rights; it a necessary they have a regional authority to whom they can violence as a legitimate political and humanitar- action in order prevent further mass atrocities appeal for protection and legal enforcement. ian concern. The presence of peacekeepers may in a country still recovering from the ravages Because of the growing discontent with the also draw the attention of news outlets, in turn of purported ethnic conflict. AU’s inaction, the Union continues to weaken aiding in international attention and pressure The African Union was created in 2001 to its own image as a legitimate source of justice for action. For now, the situation remains in replace the Organization of African Unity. The and protection. the hands of the African Union. Leaders must main objectives of the AU include the promo- While the African Union patiently waits be willing to take action in order to promote tion of economic and political development, for the Burundian government to make dip- human rights. Waiting for an international con- the promotion of unity and solidarity, and lomatic progress through “all-inclusive talks” sensus on the extent of crimes and violence in the defense of state and individual rights. The with opposition leaders, President Nkurunziza Burundi allows the situation to grow out of Union has deployed peacekeeping missions in has used violence and intimidation throughout control and allows history to repeat itself at the the past to countries such as Sudan and So- the country to silence dissidents. Some African expense of human lives. • malia. However, these missions were met with leaders fear that sending troops without Burun- less resistance and even found support from di consent will further destabilize the region. these national governments. The decision to Others feel that the situation does not yet war- postpone or eliminate the peacekeeping opera- rant AU intervention. But Article 4(h) of the tion in Burundi simply because the historically AU Constitutive Act grants the AU the right to isolationist and abusive government does not intervene in a member state, given an Assem- approve of it is not an example of diplomacy, bly decision “in respect of grave circumstanc- but of cowardice. Nkurunziza’s public state- es, namely: war crimes, genocide, and crimes

4 // AFRICA Nationalism First, Democracy Later Tanzania’s Strategy for Development - Sam Corey

ccording to the late academic Benedict Tanzanians’ strong civic-mindedness has allowed Anderson, nationalism is based on the the country to sustain high degrees of trust and A concept of an imagined community. In practice, this means that nation-states exist low amounts of violence.” because people (often millions) merely believe they are connected with one another. This be- lief allows individuals to work together toward mental institutions, and trust in fellow citizens.” out the state as each individual feels connected common goals. Additionally, one study by the Afrobarometer to a broader, imagined community of people. In the developing world, it is theorized that found that 88 percent of Tanzanians identify as The result incentivizes leaders to meet the de- countries develop best if they have a strong nationals (higher than any other African coun- mands of the people—providing clean water, economy and/or are democratic. If they have try). This patriotism exists in Tanzania despite good roads, widespread public transportation, proper roads, a structured financial system, are comprising of over 120 different ethnic groups affordable housing, good schools, and proper industrialized, and are an adequate exporter, and significant religious diversity. health care—because he or she feels a personal they will develop a higher GDP, leading ulti- While President Nyerere’s nationalist-so- connection to them. Therefore, when resources mately to a more peaceful, democratic state. cialistic policies concentrated too much power are widely distributed, more people have access But, beyond establishing a strong economy and in his hands and ultimately shrunk the Tanza- to sustainable jobs, increasing the GDP of the democratic ethos, the most indicative factor of nian economy, Tanzania has rebounded with country. As living standards rise, there emerges development—creating peace and establishing a strong, sustainable workforce since Nyerere a stronger incentive to fight for more necessary democratic tendencies—is based on the belief left office. Today, the country boasts the tenth political rights so everyone’s life gets better. This that a sense of kinship in the citizenry is im- largest economy in Africa. With high degrees of is Tanzania’s legacy. Rather than prioritizing the portant and one’s investment in this institution trust in one another, and more economic inde- economy, democracy, foreign policy or security, will pay dividends in his or her own life. The pendence, Tanzanians have been able to freely the nation established a stable national identity more strongly one identifies with others within conduct business with one another, thereby first. This strategy has allowed every subsequent a specific, “declared” geographical boundary, increasing the GDP. political action to occur through this national- the more effectively that country will develop Most recently, Tanzania’s successes have ist prism, leading to a stronger economy and a in the long run. This theory is best exempli- come from civil society. As many African coun- more peaceful, democratic state. fied in Tanzania. tries remain fraught with political violence and A strong dose of nationalism has allowed Tanzania’s strong nationalism stems from corruption, Tanzania maintains a reputation Tanzania and its communities a stronger civ- its first President Julius Nyerere’s systemic plan, as one of the most peaceful countries on the il society, more participatory democracy, and known as ujamaa—roughly meaning commu- continent. According to one report, Tanzani- higher GDP. In rather obvious terms, it is ben- nity, socialism, or togetherness. Ujamaa was a ans’ strong civic-mindedness has allowed the eficial for everyone to dedicate themselves to comprehensive ideological and macro-econom- country to sustain high degrees of trust and their fellow citizens. Tanzanians seem to have ic plan that was vehemently anti-colonialist and low amounts of violence. internalized this belief and it has certainly paid advocated for mass participation in socialist- 2015 marked a particularly impressive dis- dividends. • leaning policies, particularly related to the ag- play of a participatory, free, and fair multiparty ricultural sector. Early on, Tanzania adopted election. Initially, more than 12,000 candidates Swahili (rather than English) as its national vied for a seat in parliament. Over 67 percent language; heavily promoted Tanzanian culture, of the country voted in the presidential elec- history, and values in its schools; and replaced tion. And more women were elected to parlia- ethnic or tribal identities with a comprehen- ment, surpassing the 30 percent gender quota. sive national identity. Furthermore, equitably Although some analysts were worried that pro- distributing public services across the country tests and unrest would follow the election of was a cornerstone of Nyerere’s plan, thereby President John Magufuli, the streets remained investing heavily in healthcare, education, and peaceful and unrest virtually absent. infrastructure. Development and the advancement of dem- The nationalistic seeds planted early on in ocratic values by way of strong national identity the East African country have had long-lasting makes intuitive sense. Strong civic identity is effects. According to one survey of twelve Af- the basis by which states exist. When people are rican countries carried out by scholar Edward willing to make material (and personal) sacrific- Miguel, Tanzania displayed “the highest levels es for their fellow citizens, it is more likely that of support for democracy, confidence in govern- public goods will be evenly distributed through-

AFRICA // 5 The Cycle Continues The Inherent Flaws in Populism - Laura Vicinanza

eftist populism has long flourished in istration and has moved Hugo Chávez. These leaders ben- Latin America, cycling in and out of towards more market-ori- efited from their military “caudi- L mainstream politics in the region since ented policies. In addition llo” (strongman) appeal to deliver the early twentieth century. Historically, popu- to promising to balance justice to the people. The newer lism has had more success in Latin America the budget, Macri has de- wave of populist leaders lacks the than in any other part of the world due to ex- pegged the Argentine peso allure of their predecessors. treme inequality, wealth in natural resources, and cut a deal with bond The third and final factor that and sharp class divisions entrenched in the re- investors, in hopes of reig- has exhausted populism in Latin gion. These factors have led to a bigger role for niting foreign investment: a America is government corrup- the state in supporting industry and granting stark contrast to the previ- tion. Populism thrives on verti- social benefits to workers, leading to a rise in ous government’s econom- cal leadership with ruling par- populist governments. ic policies. Additionally, the Bolivian president, Evo Morales. ties maintaining extreme hold- The newest wave of anti-neoliberal populism, collapse of commodity pric- WIKIMEDIA COMMONS ing power over the government. instituted at the turn of the century by leaders es has devastated resource- This tendency has naturally led to such as Evo Morales, Michelle Bachelet, Hugo rich Latin American economies. a lack of institutional accountability. Venezu- Chávez, and Néstor Kirchner, has begun to In Venezuela, the sharp fall in oil prices has ela’s Nicolás Maduro is one of the clearest cases crash. From the success of right wing opposition shed light on the OPEC nation’s inherently of this abuse of power. During his presidency, parties to the adoption of open market policies, weak economy. It can no longer afford the gen- Maduro has continually used non-democratic many Latin American countries are departing erous oil subsidies of the past, and the country’s means to attain his goals, such as manipulat- from populism. The disillusion with populism entire economy is hurting as a result of the fall ing electoral results, deporting immigrants, and in Latin America is due to economic issues, such in oil prices. The people have gone to the polls restricting the media. Even some of the more as currency depreciation and low commodity to voice their dissatisfaction with their country’s successful populist governments, such as Evo prices, the scarcity of charismatic leaders, and populist economic policies, with the opposition Morales in Bolivia and Rafael Correa in Ecua- the lack of institutional accountability. winning a majority of seats in the National As- dor, have seen increasing dissent and internal Internal and external economic factors, sembly, defeating the Chavista movement for conflict. This quasi-authoritarian style of gov- mainly falling commodity prices and massive the first time in roughly two decades. ernance has not gone unnoticed, reflected in inflation, have caused the decline in populism Populist governments also depend heavily the February 21st Bolivian referendum, which in Latin America. In the past, populist regimes on paternalistic, charismatic leaders who can rejected Morales’s ability to run for an illegal have relied on economic policies based on bud- mobilize the masses. In populist Latin Ameri- fourth term. With populist leadership comes get deficits to stimulate domestic demand, nomi- can countries, citizens have increasingly realized an inbuilt tendency towards a nearly autocratic nal wage increases with price controls for income that their leaders are not as benevolent as pre- exercise of power, undermining the capacity of redistribution, and exchange-rate controls to cut viously thought. With social media increasing democratic regimes and the ability to make real inflation and raise wages. During the first decade demands for accountability, leaders in the re- political progress in the region. of the 21st century, a long cycle of economic gion cannot rely solely on their charisma any- Despite this trend, the decline in populism expansion allowed populist leaders (primarily more. In Argentina, de Kirchner’s leftist Victory in Latin America is hardly a new concept. The in Venezuela, Argentina, Ecuador, and Bolivia) Front (FPV) lost the trust of the people and region continually cycles between liberal, mar- to stay in power by improving living standards ultimately the December elections due to its ket-oriented policies (such as the agenda of through said policies. However, this period has undermining of democratic institutions, ma- Macri in Argentina) and periods of domestic- come to an end as the aftershocks of the 2008 nipulation of official statistics, and connection oriented, industry-based policies. The cyclical global financial crisis have weakened emerging to a high profile murder scandal. Due to this persistence of populism in the region is det- market economies. As a result of large-scale pub- lack of transparency, people began scrutiniz- rimental to overall growth in Latin America. lic dissatisfaction and a call for accountability, ing the legitimacy and character of President Countries develop through a mixture of the these regimes can no longer run huge deficits or De Kirchner. Likewise, in Venezuela, Maduro right policies and the right institutions. The shield their currencies from speculative crises. has never possessed the likeability of the late lack of institutional accountability under popu- With a 29.3 percent inflation rate in 2014 ac- president Hugo Chávez. The December par- list governments is perhaps the greatest obstruc- cording to the World Bank, it’s no wonder that liamentary elections indicated a clear sign of tion to real economic and political progress in Argentinians voted against the chosen heir of political change for the country, with the ruling the region. Whatever their past achievements, former president Christina Fernández de Kirch- United Social Party of Venezuela (PSUV) losing the populists are leading Latin America no- er and for a centralist, Mauricio Macri. Macri control of the Assembly for the first time since where, and a change in political regimes for has made it his mission to clean up the economic 1999. In the past, many populist leaders have the region is needed to genuinely achieve the disaster left behind by the de Kirchner admin- been military officers, including Juan Perón and egalitarian goals of populism. •

6 // AMERICAS The Rise of Quinoa Feeding the Economy and Malnourishing its People - Connor VanDenBosch

ast year, millions of people in Paris and rice and noodles, are leading to increased rates San Francisco went to high-end grocery of malnutrition, which has historically been L stores, such as Le Grande Epicerie and a major issue in the South American nation. Whole Foods, in search of nutritious quinoa. The Foundation for Sustainable Development Ten years ago, few in France and the United states “Malnutrition is crippling Bolivia… An States would know how to pronounce quinoa, overwhelming 25 percent of Bolivian children let alone know what it was. Quinoa is primarily under the age of three have [suffered] or cur- grown in the Andean region of South Amer- rently suffer from malnutrition.” The shift from ica, with Bolivia and Peru accounting for 98 nutrient-rich quinoa to less healthy alternatives percent of global production according to the Quinoa growers in the Andes. is only further exacerbating this epidemic. WIKIMEDIA COMMONS Latin American Integration Association. Since Some would claim that there is no solu- 2006, international demand for quinoa, a grain tion to this issue and that the high prices will considered a “super food” packed with essential trialized countries across the globe. The United boost the economy, eventually trickling down amino acids and proteins, has skyrocketed. For Nations deemed 2013 “The International Year of to help the low-income indigenous and rural the indigenous people of Bolivia who have re- Quinoa,” citing its rich abundance of protein populations. However, there are methods to lied on the rich nutritional value of quinoa for and vitamins as “having an important role in increase domestic quinoa consumption with- thousands of years, the rapid rise in prices has eradicating hunger, malnutrition and poverty.” out greatly harming producers. For instance, pushed this essential foodstuff outside of afford- All of the praise for the grain has led to a 3,800 the implementation of an export tariff would ability. As a result, the rate of malnourishment percent increase in demand between 2002 and create a wedge between domestic and world in the Andean region of Bolivia has increased, 2012, according to data from the Latin Ameri- prices. According to a report by the OECD, as many have had to substitute the proteins and can Integration Association. This increase can this would reorient supply towards the domes- amino acids from their prized domestic grain be largely attributed to affluent, health-con- tic market by virtue of its comparatively lower for less protein-abundant, unhealthy imports. scious Westerners in countries such as France price. This would help Bolivian producers by In order to reduce malnourishment in rural and the United States, who account for 63 per- increasing the marginal revenue received for indigenous regions, the Bolivian government cent of global consumption. As a result of this each unit of the grain from international con- should subsidize quinoa for its citizens. skyrocketing demand, the world price of qui- sumers, though overall demand may decrease Quinoa has been important in Bolivia since noa has rapidly increased from 1.50 USD/kg in slightly, and also help domestic consumers by the ancient Incans deemed it “the mother of all 2008 to 5.00 USD/kg in 2015. For the Bolivian lowering their price. Alternatively, the Bolivian grains” five thousand years ago. It was a staple farmers who grow quinoa and the multinational government could apply a quinoa subsidy in for the Incan army, mixed with lard to make corporations who sell it, these heightened prices order to reduce the price paid by local consum- “war balls,” giving soldiers endurance during provide more income, which in turn “helps ers, including the rural and indigenous popula- long marches. In the sixteenth century, Span- bolster the local labor market and generally tions. This policy would benefit producers as ish colonists attempted to replace the quinoa boosts local spending,” according to Jose Reyes well, due to the decreased cost of transporting fields with wheat because they viewed the native from the World Bank. Additionally, the boost the product. grain as inferior. What they failed to recognize in demand has allowed neighboring quinoa Quinoa is a rising commodity internation- – what the indigenous had known for centuries producer, Peru, to diversify exports and grow ally, which is helping some in Bolivia. For those – were the extraordinary nutritional properties the economy through increased investments in who have relied on the crop for millennia, the of quinoa. According to researchers from the capital and infrastructure. rural indigenous population, the explosion of Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina in Although the price increase has been a boon demand from foreign nations such as the Unit- Peru, quinoa contains all essential amino acids, for producers, consumers who have relied on ed States and France has pushed a staple of their a diverse abundance of vitamins and minerals, quinoa for generations – largely rural and in- diets out of affordability. As a result, efforts and a large amount of rich proteins. For the in- digenous populations – are unable to afford to fight malnutrition have become less effec- digenous and rural people of Bolivia, who live their precious grain. According to the Bolivian tive with less protein-rich alternatives taking on or near the Altiplano region of the Andean agricultural ministry, between 2006 and 2011, the place of quinoa. In order to alleviate this mountains, the abundant nutrients present in domestic consumption of quinoa dropped 34 problem, the Bolivian government should place quinoa are vital for their survival. The resilient percent. María Julia Cabrerizo, a nutritionist either an export tariff on the good or instate a quinoa is one of the only plants able grow in at the Hospital de Clínicas, says that “chronic domestic subsidy. Either policy would increase the arid and cold climate of the Altiplano, and malnutrition in children [has] climbed in qui- domestic availability of quinoa without drasti- has comprised a large portion of rural Bolivian noa-growing areas.” Bolivians have had to sub- cally harming producers, resulting in economic diets for thousands of years. stitute the super food with cheaper, processed growth and less malnutrition. • Now, the grain is in high demand in indus- products. These less healthy alternatives, such as

AMERICAS // 7 Words Do Matter How Anti-Zika Rhetoric Perpetuates Regional Sexism - Maria Fabrizio

n a recent article, New York Times foreign laws were passed through Colombia, Ecuador, correspondent Azam Ahmed challenged his El Salvador, and Jamaica, these countries would Ireaders, asking, “When in human history still lack the capital and enforcement capabili- has an epidemic become so alarming that a na- ties to make such laws a practical reality. Beyond tion feels compelled to urge its women not to this, such a law would serve only as a Band-Aid have children for two years?” For women in Co- on the gaping wound of gender-inequality, be- lombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, and Jamaica, what cause it would fail to compensate for a prevailing once would have been a nebulous hypothetical lack of accessible contraceptives and decision- posed by a speculative journalist is now a reality. making power. Sweeping policy reforms, while WIKIMEDIA COMMONS In efforts to stop the recent outbreak of Zika an attractive solution, are unlikely to take hold virus, these four countries have requested that because of entrenched cultural perceptions of women hold off on getting pregnant until the abortion perpetuated by the Catholic Church. development of a vaccine in a couple of years. Catholic Church and riddled with poverty, it Additionally, even in the unlikely event that a Although this recommendation is intended to be should come as no surprise that birth control swath of Latin American countries do make a reasonable response to a massive public health is neither universally accessible nor widely ac- abortions available, countries like Colombia, crisis, it disproportionately shifts the responsibil- cepted. This severely limits women’s decision- Ecuador, El Salvador, and Jamaica will still ity of restoring public health to women, and will making power and ultimately depletes their lack the institutional and enforcement abili- perpetuate gendered policies and rhetoric in the control over their own bodies and pregnancy ties to make abortions a practical, accessible, region. By directing pregnancy recommenda- preferences. The lack of contraceptive options and effective method of birth control. In short, tions at women while simultaneously failing to often leads women to choose a more extreme these government-sanctioned recommendations provide the primary means to prevent pregnancy, kind of birth control: abortion. According to perpetuate sexism at an institutional level. By Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, and Jamaica are the Guttmacher Institute, a nonprofit dedi- specifically targeting women, Colombia, Ecua- setting women up for defeat. cated to advancing sexual and reproductive dor, El Salvador, and Jamaica are scapegoating a By asking women in Colombia, Ecuador, health, the only countries in Latin America single gender for an act that requires both men El Salvador, and Jamaica to refrain from get- that broadly permit abortions are Cuba, Guy- and women. In this way, these governments are ting pregnant, these governments insinuate that ana, Puerto Rico, and Uruguay, meaning that placing a tremendous burden on women who women have a high level of control over if and women in Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, and already face policies, practices, and rhetoric in- when they get pregnant. However, according Jamaica are left without any clear legal means tended to keep them subordinate. to Monica Roa, the director of an organization by which to prevent childbirth. The Center Times of crisis inevitably leave populations dedicated to the human rights of women and for Reproductive Rights reports that bans on distressed and anxious for effective leadership. girls, over fifty percent of pregnancies in Latin abortion “put women and adolescent girls at This places great power in governments and in- America are unplanned. The lack of compre- risk, because many of them may resort to il- tergovernmental organizations to direct public hensive sex education, inaccessibility of birth legal and clandestine abortions.” Ultimately, discourse and perceptions to some degree. It is control, and instances of rape all contribute to the inaccessibility of contraceptives, the lack therefore the responsibility of the Colombian, this problematic rate of unplanned pregnancy. of a receptive cultural environment, and the Ecuadorian, El Salvadoran, and Jamaican gov- This oversight is especially critical because, ac- prevalence of restrictive abortion laws create a ernments to not just seek a cure, but to also cording to the 2015 United Nations World’s system that seems designed to ensure failure. keep this health crisis from provoking negative Women Report, these four nations are among By directing anti-pregnancy recommendations societal externalities, like prevailing sexism. In the top six Latin American countries where exclusively at women, Colombia, Ecuador, El order for the world to escape the Zika virus with women aged 15-49 years have experienced in- Salvador, and Jamaica advance the false narra- minimum collateral damage, it is important to timate partner physical and/or sexual violence tive that pregnancy is the sole responsibility of understand that how countries react prior to in their lifetimes. Clearly, the 25 to 40 percent a woman, while also assuming that birth con- finding a cure is almost as important as find- of women who experience this kind of violence trol is accessible and accepted when, in fact, ing the cure itself. For Colombia, Ecuador, El lack autonomy in domestic decisions and are neither is the case. Salvador, and Jamaica in particular, this means ultimately deprived the basic choice to become While some countries in the region, like changing how their governments talk about pregnant, which is the very thing being de- Brazil, are rethinking their strict abortion laws women in relation to the virus, so as not to manded by government officials. and could potentially provoke a similar change ostracize, scapegoat, or otherwise repress their Another major issue with the recommenda- in neighboring countries, this change will come female populations. Although altering discourse tions is the inherent assumption that contra- too late for many women and it will ultimately may seem like a small change, it provides an ceptives are both readily accessible and accept- fail to address the broader issue of gendered opportunity to erode institutional sexism with able. In a region dominated by the conservative policies and rhetoric. First, even if pro-abortion just a few words. •

8 // AMERICAS Curtain Call for the Haitian Electoral Farce

- Casimir M. Stone

he fiasco surrounding the 2015 Haitian that NGOs should not focus on Haiti—per- presidential elections could almost be haps they’re just focusing in the wrong place. T characterized as a comedy of errors, Haiti’s next-door neighbor, the Domini- were it not so tragic. It truly bares uncanny can Republic, which is also in the midst of a resemblance to a farce, only played on a scale relatively recent transition from dictatorship of massive proportions and with stakes so high to democracy, boasts a high standard of living and so many lives in the balance that it should as a regular tourist and retirement destination, elicit few laughs. Yet with such a colorful cast while Haiti remains the poorest country in the of characters, it’s easy to forget some of the Western hemisphere. There are many factors to very real, regular threats to Haitian citizens. The National Palace in Port-au-Prince. account for the differences between these two WIKIMEDIA COMMONS The very real political solutions that the gov- sovereign states situated on the same island, but ernment needs to actively pursue to even begin one thing is certain: NGOs did not just throw remedying those threats seem to be even easier country than his opponents. It is true that, in a bottles of water at the Dominican Republic to forget. These solutions often appear unattain- government plagued by systematic corruption, and hope that things would change. Organiza- able and may even be better solved outside the Privert has an impeccable record, having made tions such as the International Foundation for hands of the Haitian government. And yet, if enormous strides toward a mutually beneficial Election Systems (IFES) engaged in constant serious electoral changes are not made soon, the relationship with Venezuela and a more pros- consultations with the Dominican government Haitian government risks running into even perous (or at least functional) tax system. Yet, during its transition, and perhaps more impor- more trouble than it is currently in. even with these qualifications, the time between tantly, observed the early democratic elections. Per the country’s new term limits, Haiti’s now and the end of April is too short to make This is not to say that it is on the outside world first democratically elected President Michel a significant impact. And regardless, the expec- to fix Haiti’s problems. At the end of the day, Martelly, also known as “Sweet Micky”, a prom- tation of the interim president is that he will only the Haitian government, with serious in- inent Haitian pop star, prepared to step down focus purely on reworking the electoral system. ternal commitments, will be able to handle its for the 2015 October elections. His successor- Fortunately, that very focus may yet enable own situation. But in such a particularly tumul- to-be, Jovenal Moïse, an agricultural mogul Privert to make a positive impact on Haitian tuous yet potentially decisive electoral cycle, who ran for presidential office under the pat- politics. When we think of the problems press- an international presence is a much-needed ent moniker “Banana Man,” won the popular ing Haiti, we think of extreme poverty, first and stabilizing force, particularly one such as the vote in the first round of elections. However, foremost. We think of course of the 2010 earth- IFES, whose experience, budget, and proven his opponent Jude Célestin, a more traditional quake, perhaps of the crippling malnutrition success could make all the difference in ensur- politician, successfully engineered a cancella- epidemic, or even of the persistent prevalence ing a successful election. tion of the second round of elections by level- of cholera, a disease that has been eliminated Interim President Privert may not be in a ing electioneering charges at Moïse—the same in most other corners of the world. With these position to enact the massive social changes charges that had been leveled at Célestin when catastrophes, as well as striking levels of corrup- Haiti must see before it becomes a truly pros- he ran against Martelly five years ago. This con- tion pervasive in all institutions, any president perous state, but he is in the position to issue flict came to a head on February 7th, when would have a nearly unfathomable amount of a call for international intervention. Though Martelly was forced to step down without a barriers to overcome. With all that on one plate, Haiti, independent since 1804, is a historically successor, and ten days later, an entirely new it would be difficult to know where to start, proud nation, it must not be afraid to ask for player, Jocelerme Privert, a former political pris- but the president certainly could not tackle the help. On the other hand, although Haiti is a rel- oner who has also run before against Martelly, problems all at once – whoever takes the seat atively small actor in international affairs, with was declared the new interim president until must, at least at first, focus on one issue to solve. a population of ten million in desperate need of April 24th. Gracefully, Martelly responded to Despite what many humanitarian organiza- help, it must not be ignored. Hopefully, with his involuntary exit with a literal song: “Give tions may say, that first issue must be electoral electoral reforms, the Haitian government will Them the Banana.” stability. Due to the aforementioned crises, Hai- no longer be looked at as a comedy or a tragedy, On the bright side, Privert’s inauguration ti has long been a hotspot for non-governmen- but rather a drama—a prominent player that marks a temporary finale to the absurdity im- tal organization humanitarian aid, particularly will be taken seriously on the global stage. • pacting the Haitian electoral cycle. However, in the wake of the 2010 earthquake. And yet, it means little in the grander scope of Haiti’s we saw that without a stable government— struggle to improve the quality of life for its which is the natural successor to stable, demo- people. Many would argue that Privert, simply cratic elections with fair competition—much on the virtue of not being a singer-songwriter of that aid was misallocated or predated and the or a banana exporter, is better fit to run the efforts by and large fell flat. That’s not to say

AMERICAS // 9 Trudeaumania 2.0 Canada’s Liberal Honeymoon Proves Substantive - Meghan Rowley

ince winning the national elections According to TrudeauMetre.ca, a nonpar- last December, Prime Minister Justin tisan website that tracks the progress of the S Trudeau made waves as the fresh new Prime Minister’s 214 proposals, Trudeau is on face of Canadian politics. At 44, the son of for- his way to making tangible change. So far, he mer Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau bolstered delivered on at least thirteen promises, broke Canada’s international image and popularity, two, and started twenty-nine more. The most leading to a political honeymoon with the notable victories thus far are setting a date to promise of reform and a charismatic young pull the Canadian Air Force from combat in leader. The celebration is only heightened when Syria, appointing a gender-equal cabinet, and juxtaposed with the near decade-long reign of raising income taxes on the rich to 33 percent Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper. while cutting middle income taxes from 22 to However, this liberal wave, hailed as a poten- 20.5 percent, as well as creating multiple inde- tial second Trudeaumania (the term used to pendent advisory bodies for branches of govern- describe Pierre Trudeau’s surge in popularity ment, including the Senate. Broken promises upon his election), proved to be more substan- include the proposed intake of 25,000 govern- tive than empty promises and charm from a ment-sponsored refugees by December 2015, relatively inexperienced politician. In his first which was reformed to 2,500 by the end of 100 days in office, the Prime Minister made February, half of which will be privately spon- progress on the 214 promises made during the sored. Furthermore, Trudeau acknowledged campaign cycle, demonstrating that Trudeau is Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. that balancing the budget by 2019 will prove an effective foil to his Conservative predecessor. WIKIMEDIA COMMONS difficult, with annual deficits likely to exceed Although described as shocking, the Con- $10 billion. servative Party’s loss was ultimately not as un- there was Harper himself: his older, more criti- However, with multiple projects under way, predictable as marketed. While he weathered cal, and constantly controlled demeanor made including a national inquiry into missing indig- the global financial crisis and balanced the Trudeau’s candor and relaxed nature look far enous women, a reassessment of carbon emis- budget, Harper’s economic policies were not more approachable in comparison. sions, and a strong showing at the UN climate enough to keep Canadians content. In fact, Trudeau met these reservations among voters summit, a $60 billion investment in infrastruc- according to The Atlantic, before the election with a series of progressive campaign promises. ture, and the reopening of veteran’s affairs of- cycle, two thirds of voters’ top priorities were Throughout the election cycle last fall, he em- fices across the country, it seems promising that to defeat Harper. Approaching a recession and phasized positive politics, “beating fear with Trudeau will be able to make good on a number facing nearly a decade of Conservative rule, hope,” and creating a government representative of his promises. While it is still early and most constituents had begun to reconsider reelect- of today’s multicultural Canada. More specific projects are still to come, Trudeau effectively ing Harper for a fourth time. proposals included running an annual $10 bil- thwarted claims that he is all talk and no action. There were many reasons for this backlash lion deficit to finance investments in improved And if the current rate of progress continues, against Harper. First, there was a perceived infrastructure, withdrawing Canadian fighter he may prove one of the most notable prime lack of transparency within his administration. jets from Syria in exchange for heightened hu- ministers in Canadian history. • With enhanced security measures, cyber intel- manitarian aid and training, as well as a pan- ligence, and general inaccessibility, the former Canadian coalition to combat climate change. Prime Minister’s policies generated a lack of In addition, Trudeau promised to repair soured trust in his administration and government as relations with the Obama administration, in- a whole. Furthermore, moderate tax cuts for crease taxes on the wealthy, offer an economic the middle class did not significantly stimu- stimulus, prioritize gender equality, and take in late the economy or increase social mobility, 25,000 Syrian refugees by the end of 2015. All leading voters to turn to a candidate who fa- these promises led to a record number of seats vors more spending. Harper’s decision to ban swung in an election (34 to 144 of the 338 seats the niqab, a full face veil which some Muslim in the House of Commons), as Trudeau vaulted women choose to wear, in the name of national from 3rd to 1st place in the last days of the elec- security also proved controversial. He received tion campaign. But with the appeal of a movie criticism from Canadians who described the star more than a head of state, and a political policies as culturally insensitive and a rever- career that only began in 2008, it is only fair to sal of Canada’s welcoming reputation. Finally, question Trudeau’s actual progress.

10 // AMERICAS From the Saint of Death to the Drug Trade The Fall of Mexico’s Traditional Institutions - Ava Tavrazich

n his first day in Mexico, Pope Fran- Catholic population declined from 24 percent cis addressed throngs of devoted Ro- to 21 percent, as stated by the Huffington Post, Oman Catholics and condemned what certainly indicating a movement away from one is thought to be the epitome of the Mexican such powerful institution. Santa Muerte’s follow- anti-Christ movement: Santa Muerte. Espe- ing, on the other hand, continues to increase. cially popular across the country, the “Saint At least for supporters of the drug cartels, Santa of Death” has not only increased in popular- Muerte fills a void that the Catholic Church can- ity over the past 25 years but has also become not, since the latter condemns the drug trade. so commercialized that even tourists seek out The cult can be seen as a source of spiritual guid- figurines of her likeness. The bony figure is ance for those who fall out of the traditional and largely significant due to her association with legal system of society. the drug trade; she is known as one of the most Santa Muerte is certainly not the cause of important “narco-saints.” The cartels turn to the drug trade, though the cult does complicate her for assistance in their deals, due to the fact the government’s response to cartels. Since the that she is considered to be non-judgmental, launch of the anti-drug campaign in 2006, the an aspect that contributes to her overall pop- Representation of Santa Muerte near Mexican and American governments alike have Nuevo Laredo, Mexico. WIKIMEDIA COMMONS ularity. As violence and participation in the invested heavily in attempts to dismantle the cartels has increased over the past ten years, system of drug cartels. Most money has been despite rampant efforts by the Mexican gov- is the fact that people can, and in most cases devoted to targeting specific members of the ernment to quell such activity, the power of do, practice Catholicism at the same time. To cartels, to try to deter violence, and to disas- Santa Muerte as a figure of devotion further many devotees, she is both a part of and the semble the drug trade on a more individualized complicates the fight to dismantle the violent opposition to the official institutions set up by level. Despite such efforts, violence has not system. Such complexities simply highlight the the state, at least with regard to the Catholic decreased and homicide rates have either re- fact that the Mexican government must take a Church. Santa Muerte’s reach bypasses social mained fairly constant or increased since 2006. more holistic approach in combatting the drug classes, reaching people of all different profes- The campaign is seemingly ineffective, since trade, and focus on aspects other than trying sions and socioeconomic statuses, however the the cartels are still quite powerful; however, to simply eliminate cartel-generated violence. majority of her followers tend to be poorer and the Mexican government continues to pour The origins of Santa Muerte are not com- on the margins of society—speaking not only money into its efforts. As reported by Forbes, in pletely known, though she is thought to be a to the criminal proclivities of the cult, but also 2013 an estimated $172.7 billion was invested in colonial-era hybrid of indigenous religions and to the rising poverty levels in the country. Ac- peacekeeping efforts in the Mexican drug war. Catholicism. The saint’s lack of a clear history cording to Reuters, in 2014 the poverty rate in- This investment is ineffective unless allocated does not deter her followers. According to the creased to 46.2 from 45.5 percent across Mexico. to the right campaigns. Huffington Post the number of Santa Muerta Although poverty, the worship of Santa The continued violence and aspects like San- worshippers has increased to roughly 12 million Muerte, and involvement with drug cartels are ta Muerte show how complex the drug trade people across the Americas. As her ominous not inherently linked, it is true that the drug is. If the Mexican government wants to deter name indicates, she quite literally represents trade attracts people of lower socioeconomic its citizens from participating in alternative in- death, serving as an opposing force to tradi- status, in that it can provide a quick way to make stitutions, it should focus on improving those tional Catholic values that emphasize eternal money. A devotee of Santa Muerte will by no that it can control, such as the education sys- life. For this reason, the Catholic Church views means necessarily join a drug cartel, though the tem, and working harder to eliminate corrupt Santa Muerte as an illegitimate cult and an question arises of the degree to which the asso- officials that at times assist the interests of the antithesis to Christianity. Perhaps the greatest ciation of Santa Muerte increases the appeal or cartels. Improving these flawed structures can appeal of Santa Muerte is that, unlike God, justifies the drug trade. Culturally, Santa Muerte more effectively restore the population’s faith in she does not judge; followers can pray to her is an attractive symbol of the drug cartels. In a traditional state institutions, while leaving al- for absolutely anything, such as success in drug similar way to the highly popular musical genre ternative systems, like the drug trade and Santa transactions, without fear of questioning stan- of narcocorrido, which glorifies specific cartels Muerte in a less alluring position. The Saint of dards imposed by moral institutions. through song, Santa Muerte is a non-traditional, Death is an indicator that the elimination of Santa Muerta has gained a significant fol- yet widespread, cultural aspect of the cartels that the drug trade should become fought less as lowing in Mexico–so much so that hundreds of people enjoy. Additionally, as traditional insti- a moral crusade and instead with a more all- unofficial temples have been erected in people’s tutions in Mexico begin to appear less effective, encompassing approach that could both build homes and she is found in marketplaces all over people could very easily lose faith in the estab- trust in and improve the effectiveness of the the country. Further adding to her popularity lishment. Between 2007 and 2014, the Roman Mexican government. •

AMERICAS // 11 The Decline of Kiribati Climate-Change Refugees - Sanuri Gunawardena

Anote Tong explained, “We would hope not to States, where leaders held discussions during put everyone on one piece of land, but if it be- a weeklong meeting to promote solidarity and came absolutely necessary, yes, we could do it. partnerships with developing small islands. A It’s basically going to be a matter of survival.” prominent topic that was discussed included However, relocation to Fiji is not a lasting so- disaster risk prevention. If members of the lution, as Fijians will also need to move from meeting reach a consensus with the leaders of low-lying areas. The United Nations should in- destination countries in realizing the necessity The flag of Kiribati.WIKIMEDIA COMMONS corporate climate change refugees into reform of standing in unity during trying times, then policies because they are no different than the the UNHCR can proceed to incorporate legal he United Nations’ definition of a refu- refugees residing in Europe. All of these dis- revisions to the UN’s refugee policy. This po- gee does not take climate change into placed populations are facing the overarching litical body first requires a solid agreement on T consideration as a motivating factor drawback of a loss of habitat. a protection agenda to address the needs of dis- for relocation. Due to rising sea levels around Considering that relocation seems to be the placed people across international borders due the globe, several island countries in the Pacific only plausible solution for the people of Kiri- to the natural hazards that include the effects and Indian Oceans are facing crises involving bati, the next pressing matter involves deciding of climate change. Kiribati’s closest neighbors their low-lying lands. Kiribati, a country com- who is responsible for the refugees. Kathleen will then be able to utilize this new definition posed of a chain of thirty-three atolls, lies only Newland, a co-founder and senior fellow at the of a refugee to grant protection to the small 266 feet above sea level, exposing the popula- Migration Policy Institute, a Washington-based island populations that are losing their homes. tion to the drastic effects of climate change. think tank, argued that nearby countries should Global climate-change talks took place Unfortunately, the current refugee crises are take on the responsibility for sheltering the in Paris last December, during which leaders mainly focused on the conflicts and wars plagu- displaced populations of Kiribati. The United agreed to contain global warming to below two ing the Middle East and North Africa. Thus, Nations should become involved in setting up degrees Celsius. This is certainly a promising Kiribati and other island nations facing the standard procedures for the operation of this goal for the long-term; however, the people of same issue are struggling to find the financial climate change migration. The most viable can- Kiribati do not have the time to wait. They are resources and international aid to support the didates for taking in the refugees would be those already beginning to experience the complete impending migration. Maxine Burkett, an as- nearby, meaning Australia and New Zealand. loss of their homes. In addition to the mere loss sociate professor of law focusing on climate However, without the UN’s designation that of land, climate change has resulted in serious change at the University of Hawaii at Manoa’s climate-change refugees are in fact refugees, public health and agricultural challenges. For William S. Richardson School of Law, warns these territories are unlikely to move forward example, floods are becoming more common, that the situation is “only set to get worse. In with the acceptance of Kiribati’s helpless citi- resulting in a decrease in arable land due to soil the next generation or two, it’s possible the ma- zens. For instance, a Kiribati citizen was denied salinization, the death of valuable livestock, and jority of the island[s] of Kiribati will have to be asylum last September in New Zealand because causing garbage and human waste to flow into evacuated.” With such clear warning signs for a court decreed that his request did not meet homes. While Kiribati’s citizens are attempting the future of Kiribati’s island population, the the “serious harm” requirement necessary for stopgap measures, such as constructing cages in United Nations needs to take urgent measures applicants seeking refugee status. If the UN trees for livestock, long-term solutions will only to add provisions to their refugee laws and urge were to include climate-induced loss of habi- be provided through international action. The nearby nations to take initiative in supporting tat, then these asylum seekers would gain the UN has made ambitious plans for the future, climate change refugees until alternate solutions refugee status they require to survive the dam- but Kiribati requires immediate aid before it is can be appropriately postulated for Oceania’s age to their homes. too late. Once the UN accepts climate- change struggling island nations. An enormous amount of political will is refugees as a part of the larger group of refugees Approximately 665,000 to 1.7 million peo- required to negotiate the transfers of massive who have been displaced from their homes, ter- ple in the Pacific could be displaced or forced to refugee populations. The political climate in po- ritories such as Australia and New Zealand will migrate by 2050 because of the climate-induced tential destination countries remains reluctant be under greater pressure to legally grant citi- rise in sea levels. Such forecasts have caused ex- to make commitments to accept millions of zens of Kiribati asylum. This could be an impor- perts to believe that Kiribati may in fact disap- refugees on the basis of climate change-induced tant first step in helping the climate- displaced pear within the next thirty to sixty years. In an habitat loss. Currently, the UN defines a refu- regain control of their lives following the loss attempt to take early precautions, Kiribati has gee as a person escaping persecution. Escaping of the land they have called home for so long. • already purchased land on Fiji, an island more the loss of one’s home due to climate change than one thousand miles away, for approxi- must make its way onto this political agenda. mately eight million dollars. While speaking to A promising first step was made at the Third the Associated Press, Kiribati’s former President UN Conference on Small Island Developing

12 // ASIA & OCEANIA Fijian Mining Reform A Path to Growth or Ruined Paradise? - Akash Ramanujam

n January 27, 2016, Fiji’s Prime Min- Additionally, increased mining activity will cy is that despite economic troubles, Fiji’s econ- ister announced that his government place Fiji’s economy at the whims of global omy has actually shown real signs of improve- O planned to reform Fijian mining reg- commodity markets, diminishing economic ment recently. Of course, like any developing ulations in order to strengthen the country’s stability. Much of the recent interest in Fijian country, Fiji struggles to maintain the insti- mineral extraction sector, with the aim of in- mineral extraction has been focused on gold tutional strength vital to a healthy economy: creasing mining leases. PM Voreqe Bainima- and bauxite. To be sure, becoming a gold pro- Transparency International notes that sub-par rama indicated that the mining sector could ducer could prove useful during an economic rule of law and nepotism are enduring areas of provide a means to at least partially alleviate downturn as investors turn away from securi- difficulty. However, the ADB estimated GDP Fiji’s economic woes: the Asian Development ties toward a time-tested store of value. How- growth of 4 percent in 2015 (higher than several Bank (ADB) notes that, “[in] Fiji, 31 percent of ever, the price of gold is not always stable and of its fellow Pacific islands) and projects an in- the population lives below the poverty line… has revealed volatile tendencies in the past. In crease in economic growth in 2016. On top of [and only] 35.9 percent of the population aged other words, Fiji’s attempt to grow its econo- that, a 2014 ADB report noted that Fiji was on 15 years and above is employed.” However, my could lead to greater dependence on the track to achieve half of the Millennium Devel- Bainimarama and his associates are mistaken frequently shifting value of gold, potentially opment Goals proposed by the UN to improve in assuming that increased mining activity is minimizing the damage of global economic economic prosperity, which is promising for a a viable solution for Fiji’s economic troubles. declines, but also frustrating Fiji’s attempt at country that has been forced to reckon with the By attempting to grow the mining industry, steady economic growth. phase-out of a preferential sugar quota with the the current government risks endangering Fiji’s Increased reliance on bauxite will not fare EU and the resulting collapse of a historically tourism sector, placing Fijian economic perfor- much better: a 2014 Bloomberg article noted important sugar industry. mance in the hands of temporary global com- that increased demand for Fijian bauxite has There is no way around the contraction of modity market conditions, and hampering the been stimulated by the Indonesian govern- the sugar industry in Fiji nor the punch that it ongoing development of the Fijian economy. ment’s proposal to stop exporting unrefined will deliver to the national economy, but that As Fiji’s Department of Environment itself bauxite in order to develop Indonesian smelters. does not mean Fijian agriculture is dead in its recognized in a country report to the United Consequently, current interest in Fijian bauxite tracks. Fiji can still stay true to its agrarian past Nations Centre for Regional Development, is the result of a temporary situation in inter- by offsetting decreased sugar production with lackadaisical waste disposal threatens Fiji’s tour- national commodity markets. If Fiji’s govern- increased cultivation of tropical produce. Fiji’s ism industry “by detracting from the ‘Pacif- ment is looking for a sustainable path towards government has wisely attempted to stall the ic Paradise’ image…and by association with economic growth, it should look somewhere downfall of the sugar industry, which one 2014 health warnings about infectious and vector- else. Even with Indonesia out of the picture, Fiji ADB report referred to as “the mainstay of the borne diseases.” Environmental damage from is still not a large enough player in the world rural economy.” However, if the government Fijian mines has already been reported: in 2012, bauxite market to influence prices. Also, sup- is dead set on enacting a dramatic policy to Radio Australia reported that a mine extracting posing Indonesia gains the smelting capabilities boost economic growth, it may want to con- copper and gold had discharged toxic materi- it desires, an increase in the supply of refined sider scaling back assistance an ailing sugar in- als into the environment, and in 2015 Radio Indonesian bauxite would decrease world prices dustry and pouring it into the development of New Zealand reported that a chief in Fiji’s Bua for processed bauxite. Lower processed bauxite tropical agriculture, which will probably yield province claimed that a bauxite mine had con- prices could force foreign corporations that re- more long-term profit. While increased min- taminated local fisheries. Despite the costs of fine Fijian bauxite out of business, depressing ing activity will not detract from agricultural mineral extraction, mining revenue provides demand for Fijian bauxite. Where Indonesia productivity, a larger mining sector will act as only a fraction of Fiji’s revenue compared to exported raw bauxite and then turned to export a net benefit on the Fijian economy, risking a tourism. While mining comprises only 1 per- more refined products, Fiji would find it hard dent in economic growth where such a risk is cent of Fiji’s GDP, Fiji’s Ministry for Industry, to do the same. This is because refining baux- ultimately unnecessary. Trade and Tourism estimates that the tourism ite is infeasible in Fiji. As noted in a July 2015 Leaders of developing countries probably sector produces 17 percent of GDP. Of course, Fiji Times article, refining Fijian bauxite do- have difficulty with the “wait it out” mental- the larger the mining sector grows, the more it mestically is impractical. Fiji’s bauxite reserves ity, and maybe rightly so. After all, proper will contribute to GDP. However, the more the are limited and the bauxite in them is of low economic management often requires prompt mining sector grows, the more the tourism sec- quality. Thus it is impractical if Fiji decided to policy adjustment. But the need for timeliness tor suffers. Considering the difference between increase its mining activity and in the process in government operations is not an excuse for these two sectors in terms of GDP contribu- may damage its tourism industry and finds itself panicked policymaking. The Fijian government tion, it is hard to imagine a scenario in which more subject to global commodity fluctuations. needs to curb its impatience before it digs up a the mineral extraction sector grows so large that Perhaps the most perplexing aspect of the mining problem. • mining gains offset tourism losses. Prime Minister’s proposed shift in mining poli-

ASIA & OCEANIA // 13 Peace in the Philippines Out of Reach or an Election Away? - Hannah Feldshuh

or decades, insurgency and violent sepa- To address the plight of the population of ratist movements have plagued the is- Mindanao and the effects of this conflict on the Fland of Mindanao. As the center of the Philippines’ Muslim minority in a predomi- Philippines more broadly, legislators and the next nantly Catholic nation, the Autonomous Re- administration need to recommit now to passing the gion in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) has been the site of enduring violence. Secessionist move- Bangsamoro Basic Law in the next administration.” ments have vied for control and threatened the legitimacy of the central government for de- cades. The most popular secessionist group, the At a fundamental level, the Bangsamoro Beyond the imperative for political stability Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) gained Basic Law is necessary to increase political sta- and social cohesion, the Bangsamoro Basic Law strong support in 1980s and 1990s, and ulti- bility and end violent attacks. Under the BBL offers potential for greater economic growth. mately established a parallel government within framework, a devolved parliamentary system Currently, the Autonomous Region in Muslim the ARMM. Since that time, MILF has been will be created in the current ARMM region, Mindanao is Mindanao’s poorest region, with engaged in conflict with the military. A 2014 with the aim of empowering Bangsamoro to only 0.9 percent GDP growth in 2013 and 55.5 peace agreement ended fighting between MILF “secure their identity” and “allow for mean- percent labor participation in 2011. Research and central military authorities, but govern- ingful self-governance.” Current dissatisfac- from the Philippines’ National Economic and mental instability and dismal economic growth tion with political representation structures Development Authority communicates that has allowed a period violence to erupt. This re- has real consequences. In December 2015, the BBL stability has the potential to increase eco- gion is suffering not just from insurgency, but Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF), nomic output, employment and investment, also from the inability to resolve core issues a 2011 offshoot of MILF, attacked nine Chris- intra- and inter-regional trade, and narrow the underlying the violence – including religious tian villages, leaving nine dead over two days regional wealth disparities between Bangsam- persecution, political isolation and economic of fighting. BIFF rejects negotiations with the oro and the rest of Mindanao. The Bangsamoro stagnation. government of the Philippines and demands an Development Plan 2015-2022 (BDP), the eco- The Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) was pro- independent nation for Bangsamoro. Accord- nomic proposal designed to accompany BBL, posed and debated to resolve the long-term re- ing to Voice of America, tensions in Mindanao aims to push Bangsamoro into double-digit gional governance issues and address political have resulted in the deaths of 150,000 over sev- growth within five years of creation and seeks isolation, religious persecution, and economic enteen years. According to the Committee on to increase per capita gross regional domestic stagnation. This landmark piece of legislation Population and Development Executive Direc- product from 29,608 to 38,000 and upwards. was envisioned as a legacy action of President tor Romeo Dongeto, children would be most Without the BBL as a framework for stability Benigno Aquino III. Drafts of the BBL under- vulnerable to renewed and continued violence, and decreased violence, this vision of growth went over 200 hours of debate, eight months as they are subject to displacement and recruit- remains unlikely. of consultations, and 51 hearings. Despite this ment as combatants. The United Nations Chil- As a landmark bill crafted by the Aquino extensive review process, the Bangsamoro Basic dren’s Fund estimates that between 30,000 and administration, the future of the Mindanao Law failed to pass at the end of the congressio- 50,000 children are impacted by armed conflict and the Bangsamoro Basic Law remains uncer- nal session in February 2016, primarily due to in Mindanao. tain as election season approaches. The priori- perceived public opposition and chronic leg- Despite this loss of life and political in- ties of the next administration will ultimately islator absenteeism. Despite the military, eco- stability, many lawmakers failed to show up determine the bill’s success or failure, but it is nomic, political, and social costs of instability to deliberations and voting as election season unclear whether presidential candidates will re- in Mindanao, legislators are allowing election approached, communicating apathy towards commit to its passage. All current presidential season motivations and apathy to derail a 17- Bangsamoro, Filipino Muslims, and the peace candidates have publically advocated for peace year peace process. Proponents of the BBL are process. Following the failed passage of the within ARMM, but have expressed differing fearful that the Philippines’ election season will BBL, rioting and protests broke out in Muslim views on BBL, ranging from direct support to derail this process further and allow violent ex- cities across the Philippines, calling legislators questioning its constitutionality. Regardless of tremists to exploit legislative indecisiveness. To “anti-Muslim and anti-peace.” For many in the party affiliation or election platform, legisla- address the plight of the population of Min- ARMM, the failure of BBL is yet another set tors and candidates must commit to peace in danao and the effects of this conflict on the in a string of slights and discrimination against Mindanao through the passage of Bangsamoro Philippines more broadly, legislators and the the Muslim minority. To begin to heal the ten- Basic Law. Without this legislation, the efforts next administration need to recommit now to sion with this long-disenfranchised group, the of a seventeen-year process will be in jeopardy, passing the Bangsamoro Basic Law in the next next administration must recommit to the BBL and electoral ambitions, lack of political will, administration. following the May 9th elections. and legislative apathy will be to blame. •

14 // ASIA & OCEANIA Indonesian Hazy Development Finding Sustainable Measures - Lanxin Jiang

s Indonesia transitions into a devel- development. Worsening Southeast Asian haze To date, 25 percent of state owned-forested land oping economy, it struggles with the and growing diplomatic tensions signal that it (called Forest Estate) in Central Kalimantan, or A undesired consequences of economic is time for stronger Indonesian government in- four million hectares of land, have overlapping growth – air pollution. In 2015, Indonesia ex- tervention, which will allow for the pursuit of a land use certificates that have been issued or are perienced its worst man-made forest fires since more balanced growth without compromising in process. Additionally, 3.1 million hectares of 1997. According to the World Bank, forest fire on quality of life. Forest Estate have overlapping regional govern- cleanup cost $16.1 billion, more than double In 2002, all ASEAN nations signed the le- ment permits, with 560,000 hectares holding the amount spent on rebuilding Aceh after the gally binding ASEAN Agreement on Trans- both Ministry of Forestry licenses on top of 2004 tsunami. Exacerbated by the El Niño phe- Boundary Haze Pollution – a commitment to regional permits. These statistics are also indica- nomenon in 2015, air quality near Indonesia’s collaborate with neighboring states to reduce tive of other forest zones, in which excessive and persistent peat fires regularly exceeded the maxi- air pollution as a result of forest fires – but inconsistent regulations not only obscure com- mum level of 1000 on the international Pol- have since seen little improvement. Economic pliance rules, but also provide fertile ground for lutant Standard Index (PSI), more than three obstacles to cooperation are also compounded bribery. Awareness of the need for land tenure times the amount considered “hazardous” to by coordination problems and differing inter- reforms has gained momentum in the past few human health. As a trans-boundary problem, pretations of the agreement. Thus, while re- years with recognition that consolidation and neighboring countries such as Singapore and gional cooperation is a laudable ideal, indi- reinforcement of land tenure and licenses plays Malaysia contributed to cloud-seeding efforts in vidual countries’ commitment to reduce the an imperative role in ensuring rule abidance. inducing rain to combat the haze, but tackling Southeast Asian haze is required to eliminate With clearer license issuances and more distinc- the annual Southeast Asian haze requires more the bystander problem. Singapore provides an tive land tenure, perpetrators who clear lands than regional cooperation. Preventative, proac- example of how national commitments can using the slash-and-burn method will also be tive measures such as increasing accountability lead to effective action. In 2014, Singaporean more easily identifiable. and developing clearer land tenure and license parliament passed the Trans-Boundary Haze Under the current paradigm of Indonesian requirements could lead to more effective and Pollution Act, allowing regulators to prosecute economic development, concerns for environ- sustainable long-term development. individuals and companies that contribute to mental degradation tend to come second to Indonesia’s blind pursuit of economic severe air pollution in Singapore. This law was maintaining high levels of economic growth. growth while neglecting the effects of its ex- created in part as a response to Indonesia’s con- However, economic development need not fol- ternalities on human health and the environ- cerns that Singaporean and Malaysian inves- low an all-or-nothing policy design. With Indo- ment is problematic. The country’s model of tors own large shares in plantations involved in nesia’s low human and capital cost, it can still free trade is defined by high global demand fires and must thus take on some responsibility. pursue a transitioning primary commodities for its natural resources, including palm oil, Judging from the success of Singapore’s strict export industry, but with greater government pulpwood and timber. Its palm oil produc- laws on deterring crimes and improving stan- intervention overlooking land tenure and li- tion alone meets over 50 percent of the world’s dards of living during its nation-building years, censing, to hold producers accountable to more needs. While Indonesia is able to utilize its a large reduction or even total curbing of Sin- stringent regulations. While it is unrealistic to comparative advantage with the export of ag- gaporean investors’ contribution to the annual expect complete eradication of the Southeast ricultural products, it comes with trade-offs. Southeast Asian haze can be rightly anticipated. Asian haze over the next few years, Indonesian Even with regulations, smallholder farmers and However, to aid cross-border prosecution, the president Joko Widodo has expressed urgency large corporation producers find opportuni- Indonesian government must propose similar over the matter. After signing a $1 billion agree- ties to employ the slash-and burn technique laws to increase accountability and, as a result, ment with Norway, Indonesia is now among that clears forests at low tangible costs, making deter perpetrators from continued engagement the first countries implementing REDD+, a way for cash crops. Not only do these practices in catastrophic deforestation. mechanism for sustainable management of for- disregard the consideration of external costs While strengthening accountability can ests covering deforestation and conservation of to society, such as environmental degradation, contribute to drastic reduction of levels of the forests. With greater global and local commit- biodiversity destruction, and toxic fumes pro- Southeast Asian haze, the difficulty in identi- ment to environmental sustainability, there may duced during the fires, the burning of Indone- fying perpetrators can prove to be an impedi- be renewed optimism that there will not be a sia’s peatlands often spins out of control, blan- ment in attaining Indonesia’s pledge to reduce repeat of the 2015 trans-boundary haze, and that keting Indonesia and neighboring countries in carbon dioxide emissions by 2030. A significant one day, there will be no need for Indonesians prolonged haze. In 2015, the haze resulted in an factor in the identification problem lies in un- to stockpile respiratory masks. • estimated 500,000 cases of respiratory illnesses clear or unenforced land tenure between local and deaths. The Indonesian government must smallholders, corporations, communities, and act, despite facing a dilemma between prioritiz- government agencies, giving rise to many un- ing economic growth and prioritizing welfare resolved conflicts over disputed claims of land.

ASIA & OCEANIA // 15 The Best or Only Option The Lack of Alternatives to Shinzo Abe - Trevor Grayeb

apanese lawmaker Yuriko Koike once election in 2012 by the largest margin of any programs – in particular the TPP – will be left quipped that her country’s Prime Minis- candidate in the country, he was rewarded with without a prominent champion in the party. Jters are like tissue paper – easily disposable the undesirable job of pitching the Trans-Pacific If, as he and many of his advocates say, Japan and even more easily replaced. Yet current Pre- Partnership (TPP) to farming communities requires difficult structural reforms to break its mier Shinzo Abe seems to be made of sturdier in Northern Japan. This herculean task of at- cycle of economic and social stagnation, it is stock than his recent predecessors. In the fall tempting to build support among the demo- imperative that the party present strong lead- of 2015, Abe secured his leadership of Japan’s graphic most likely to be negatively impacted ership capable of implementing those reforms indomitable Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) by the deal is largely tantamount to political and rallying the public around them. Rather with an uncontested, unanimous reelection as exile. Often alluded to as a potential future than resign his party to mounting popular dis- party president – the first such one-man elec- Prime Minister, the young lawmaker’s stint in satisfaction and a growing political quagmire, tion in nearly 20 years. His detractors within the wilderness may shackle or delay his hopes Abe should attempt to enshrine his legacy in a and outside the party bemoan his seemingly with a near-inevitable and well-publicized fail- more capable successor. undisputed grip on Japan’s politics, which no ure, coupled with the enmity of the LDP’s key Reversing his tendency to ostracize prospec- amount of scandal or failure has thus far suc- rural support bloc. tive opponents in favor of grooming an heir ceeded in shaking. Barring a moment of sud- However, Abe’s lonely position at the top could infuse new energy into an administra- den clairvoyance on the part of the country’s does a disservice to his own political goals. The tion whose public image has come to be char- dysfunctional opposition, it remains unlikely Prime Minister’s bland style has led many to acterized by disappointment and quiet resigna- that the LDP-Komeito coalition will be ousted term him a sort of Anti-Koi- tion. The talents of 34-year-old from government in the near future. Yet despite zumi, referring to Shinjiro’s fa- Shinjiro Koizumi – a verita- this, or perhaps because of this, the country ther Junichiro and his uncan- ble child in a political culture now risks a slide into stunted, ineffectual lead- ny ability to stir up public sup- dominated by sexagenarians ership with no effective alternative. Even with port for any and all of his po- – could be better spent build- guaranteed prospects for reelection, Prime Min- litical pet projects. Inversely, ing national consensus behind ister Abe should not lead the LDP into another polling data has consistently economic reform than being lower-house election – for the sake of both his shown that the longer Shinzo berated by farmers in northern party and the policies he has so long fought for. Abe champions an issue the Japan. Either Cabinet Minis- Newspaper polls have shown support for the more disinterested in it the ter Seiko Noda or Policy Re- Abe cabinet hovering around 50 percent for sev- public becomes. Recent chal- search Council chairwoman eral months now, but these numbers deceptively lenges to his cabinet have aug- Tomomi Inada, both close to suggest a satisfaction with the Prime Minister mented these worries. Falling Abe and notable as prominent himself, which is in fact largely nonexistent. Of GDP numbers, an unsteady Japanese Prime Minister female lawmakers, could eas- Shinzo Abe. WIKIMEDIA COMMONS those who support the cabinet, the percentage stock market, and the recent ily signal a more meaningful of those whose given reason is a lack of “bet- revelation that the country’s commitment to Abe’s promo- ter alternatives” has consistently climbed over population has shrunk by one million since tion of women in leadership roles by being the past year. With most recent polls, over 40 2010 have all but erased any lingering public given the opportunity to become the nation’s percent of Abe’s supposed supporters now say optimism about the country’s direction. Fur- first female Prime Minister. Most important- that they simply feel there are no other appro- thermore, the loss of Akira Amari – the former ly, though, the question of who is to succeed priate options. A recent Asahi Shimbun survey Trade Minister, architect of Abenomics, and Shinzo Abe needs to be answered sooner rather asked respondents which LDP lawmaker they a member of Abe’s inner circle – to a high- than later. The longer Abe’s policies are left to felt would make the best Prime Minister – 52 profile bribery scandal has dented faith in the languish under a Prime Minister who increas- percent answered with “I don’t know.” Only 7 cabinet’s integrity. A snowballing of myriad ingly fails to instill public confidence or sup- percent backed Prime Minister Abe as deserv- setbacks and scandals has crippled the confi- port, the more stagnant and abrasive the coun- ing of another term. dence many Japanese once held in Abenomics try’s political leadership will become. Shinzo Among the reasons for the Prime Minister’s and other Abe cabinet programs – yet with the Abe’s political agenda may or may not be right perceived lack of competition from within the opposition still in its perpetual state of disarray for Japan, but the country at least deserves to LDP is the care with which Shinzo Abe has and internal LDP rivals muted there seem to be have it presented by a party with effective, in- isolated and neutralized his most prominent no plausible alternatives than to soldier along clusive leadership. • and influential critics. The chief victim of this under Abe’s crumbling leadership. cautiousness may yet be Shinjiro Koizumi – If the Prime Minister continues to lead the popular and dynamic son of former Prime alone, when he inevitably steps down or is Minister Junichiro Koizumi. Having won re- ousted from within the LDP many of his key

16 // ASIA & OCEANIA A Meaningless Merger

- Trevor Grayeb

Democratic Party (LDP), even in the midst of country’s political landscape could see serious the burgeoning unpopularity of government transformation. Yet an Asahi Shimbun poll policies, the party is seemingly unified solely found that less than a third of respondents felt by the fact that it is not the LDP. The party’s optimistic about such prospects, as the DPJ has official platform even describes it as a “party of thus far eschewed consensus in favor of weak- seikatsusha,” which can be roughly translated willed obstructionism, voicing displeasure with to “people who lead lives.” Years of such vague, LDP governance while offering neither mean- noncommittal stances have run public patience ingful resistance nor substantive alternatives. thin, and increasingly desperate bids for public Defying these expectations is not only critical support have not improved the party’s image. A to the survival of the new party – preventing a self-deprecating ad campaign proclaiming, “I fragmentation into numerous smaller parties hate the Democratic Party, but I want to protect – but to the wellbeing of Japan’s political op- Democracy” drew widespread derision and ridi- position overall. Japanese politics has thrived cule. Compounding the party’s troubles, voters on consensus building for generations. Even still harbor memories of the party’s brief stint in during the LDP’s long, unbroken rule from government from 2009 to 2012 as having been 1955 to 1993, the party habitually entertained the rife with ineptitude and failure. objections and alternative proposals of minor- Considering the party’s woes, the merger ity parties, in particular the Social Democrats. with the JIP – a reformist, vaguely populist Now, however, there are few such proposals to Minshu-kun, the mascot of Japan’s largest outfit – should ostensibly present an oppor- even consider, were LDP lawmakers willing to opposition party. WIKIMEDIA COMMONS tunity for reinvention and rebranding. More do so. If, as the DPJ’s advertising claims, Prime likely, however, these prospects will be squan- Minister Abe’s leadership has truly undermined n March 14th, a prominent Japanese dered and the result will instead be an exacer- Japanese democracy, their party must be con- political figure took to social me- bation of the opposition’s internal dysfunction. sidered at least partially complicit. As the na- O dia to assuage his supporters’ fears The DPJ’s lack of definitive political stances is tion’s leading opposition party, they have failed that his job was in jeopardy. Earlier this year due in part to internal discord among centrist in their primary charge – to voice a political the country’s two largest political parties – the and center-left members of the party, many of alternative – and Japanese voters have and will Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ, or Minshu- whom are former defectors from the LDP and continue to resent them for it. to in Japanese) and the Japan Innovation Party an array of smaller parties. Adding in the JIP’s When Minshu-kun, using his unwieldy (JIP) – had agreed on a surprise merger ahead of membership, which includes an array of con- spherical hands, tacked on a few additional the upcoming upper house elections. The new servative and nationalist elements, may only lines to his name, it validated the pessimism party recently adopted the name Minshin-to, succeed in further diluting the opposition’s al- that the rebranding was as toothless and su- tentatively translated as “Democratic Progres- ready tenuous platform. Party leaders claim perficial as the opposition itself. The smiling sive Party,” after the results of a popular opin- that the merger between the two parties is the red mascot currently has more Twitter follow- ion poll. Among other things, the renaming first step in building a pan-opposition alliance ers than DPJ President Katsuya Okada – em- cast doubt on the future of Minshu-kun, the to overcome what many decry as the increas- blematic, perhaps, of the dwindling faith in the DPJ’s bulbous costumed mascot. Yet shortly ingly heavy-handed leadership of Prime Min- party’s leadership. The merging of a country’s after the new party name was announced, a ster Abe. Yet there is no indication that this two largest opposition parties should be many video was uploaded to Minshu-kun’s Twitter ac- kind of desperate big-tent unity is the kind of things – a harbinger of political change, a sign count showing the mascot amending his name, political alternative Japanese voters are look- of burgeoning political consensus, or a signal demonstrating that by adding only six short ing for. More likely than not, future elections to the government of shifting public opinion. lines, the second character of Minshu could with the new Democratic Progressive Party will Instead, it may end up being none of these, be recycled to read Minshin. If this is all the only see the further flight of left-leaning voters another blunder by a party desperate to ac- rebranding that the opposition can manage, to the Communist Party – the sole major op- crue anti-LDP votes without being forced to then Minshin-kun may end up being the most position group with a clear and established set reconcile its internal fragmentation. Japanese popular member of their party. of policy proposals. voters – fewer in number as turnout continues Even prior to the merger with the JIP, the If the Democratic Progressive Party enters to drop – will likely go to the polls this summer DPJ struggled with an image as a party without into this summer’s election having built a new, and be left to choose between the LDP and an any meaningful foundation in policy. Consis- centrist consensus – an alternative to Abenom- empty vessel for nondescript dissatisfaction. tently unwilling to present substantive pro- ics, collective self-defense, and all other trap- They shouldn’t have to. • posals to counter the long-governing Liberal pings of the current administration – then the

ASIA & OCEANIA // 17 Can Stricter Sanctions Solve the North Korean Crisis? - Megan Cansfield

s countries begin implementing the ber states to conduct their own inspections tions: inconsistent implementation from newest round of United Nations of all incoming North Korean vessels. Ad- certain UN member states, particularly A sanctions against North Korea, the ditionally, the sanctions promise to freeze China. As North Korea’s largest aid do- strictest and most comprehensive to date, North Korea’s overseas assets and blacklist nor, closest trading partner, and sole ally, the latest chapter of the ongoing North Ko- more companies and individuals linked to China is widely criticized for enabling the rean nuclear saga is unfolding in a manner transactions with the country. Several na- Kim regime’s longevity by allowing its busi- sadly reminiscent of policy dead-ends and tions have made further efforts to extend nesses to conduct trade and its banks to fruitless condemnation of the past decade. these financial penalties; most notably, the make transactions with North Korea, de- UN Security Council Resolution 2270, United States passed a congressional act fying UN sanctions. The situation is fur- passed unanimously on March 2nd, came on Feb. 18 requiring the US Treasury to ther complicated by China’s UN Security as a decisive response to three months of designate and implement secondary sanc- Council membership, giving it veto power escalating provocations from the rogue tions on any sanction-violating institutions over attempts to enact stricter sanctions. state, beginning with a supposed hydro- with ties to the US financial system. These China has the ability to cripple North gen bomb test on January 6th, followed by punishing measures undoubtedly create Korea’s nuclear development by blocking a rocket-enabled satellite launch on Febru- significant challenges for the Kim regime’s sanctioned exchanges if it chooses, but it ary 7th, and most recently, dictator Kim operations, and the international commu- would prefer to maintain the status quo Jong Un’s claims of successfully miniatur- nity now appears poised to start playing with North Korea as a buffer and bargain- izing nuclear warheads for missile deploy- waiting games following the assumption ing chip against the West, at least until ment. On paper, the international sanc- that the regime can only last so long under the country becomes a liability threatening tions should pressure the unruly regime such circumstances. China’s fundamental interests in regional with tightened restrictions on the trade Unfortunately, the North Korean lead- dominance, border integrity, or internal and financial transactions sustaining the ership has repeatedly proven its resilience state security. While many speculate that nation’s nuclear program to ideally force to coordinated opposition, and despite the Beijing’s cooperation on Resolution 2270 concessions from Pyongyang. In practice, new sanctions’ rigidity, they ultimately can- demonstrates growing frustration with its however, any efforts to sanction North Ko- not deter a regime with a dogged convic- increasingly unpredictable and belliger- rea into submission are still hampered by tion of its dependency on a nuclear de- ent neighbor, it is still unclear how faith- existing challenges to multilateral imple- terrent for survival and little left to lose. fully China will honor the new sanctions, mentation and enforcement, making sanc- North Korea has already been heavily sanc- since it could easily slack on cargo inspec- tions alone unlikely to change the status tioned and isolated since 2006, yet these tions to gain a trade edge over compliant quo on the Korean Peninsula without also efforts have failed to halt, let alone reverse, neighbors or disguise sanctioned goods as adjusting engagement policies accordingly. the country’s nuclear progress. Instead of weakly regulated humanitarian aid. What Compared to previous international withering outside the global economy as is clear is that China’s participation, or will- efforts, Resolution 2270 offers the long- expected, North Korea has managed to ful ignorance, could likely spell success or awaited intensification of existing sanctions circumvent existing UN sanctions through failure for international sanctions against and necessary improvements on core weak- illicit cash-flow networks, transactions in- North Korea. nesses exploited by the North Korean re- termediaries, physical material and tech- While China certainly deserves blame gime and its third-party enablers. The UN nology transfers, and other underhanded for its obstructive and excessively lenient aims to tighten the net around North Ko- tactics. As long as these methods remain stance towards North Korea, it was hard- rea by expanding bans on travel for state of- viable workarounds, North Korea has few ly alone in creating the menace that the ficials, trade in luxury goods, conventional incentives to comply with sanctions that nation’s steadily progressing nuclear pro- weapons sales, and shipments of items that offer no immediate benefits for doing so. gram has become. As the other major pow- could enhance the armed forces. It also Even if the sanctions do critically threaten er player in the crisis, the United States introduces a new ban on mineral exports the regime, Kim Jong Un will simply strain must also accept a share of the responsi- of coal, iron, and gold, which account for his destitute population even more to mus- bility for its stubborn refusal to negoti- nearly half of North Korea’s total exports ter the resources to keep his officials paid ate and insistence that North Korea is ex- and can reliably generate hard currency and his reactors running, meaning that clusively Beijing’s problem to solve. The for the regime due to their high value. To bluntly ramping up sanctions will carry a Obama Administration’s policy of “stra- enforce these trade barriers, the resolution heavy human cost for marginal gains. tegic patience” in particular has translated imposes a blockade around North Korea to The greatest obstacle to achieving Reso- into chronic non-action and foot-dragging search inbound cargo and cut off interna- lution 2270’s intended outcome remains that has only alleviated pressure on the Kim tional trade, while also requiring UN mem- the same as in previous rounds of sanc- regime and granted it another eight years

18 // ASIA & OCEANIA to bide its time with the usual threatening Any efforts to sanction North Korea into rhetoric, developing its nuclear capacity all the while. The United States, too, is guilty submission are still hampered by existing of not throwing its full weight behind in- challenges to multilateral implementation ternational efforts to restrain North Korea: it is hesitant to up its political demands for and enforcement, making sanctions alone un- fear of antagonizing China, and this lack of a cohesive strategy on North Korea has likely to change the status quo on the Korean made standalone sanctions a faulty fallback Peninsula without also adjusting engagement policy. In the current context, it is increas- ingly apparent that sanctions are not work- policies accordingly.” ing as intended and probably never will. Although existing sanctions under Res- olution 2270 are somewhat slowing North Korea’s nuclear development and should not be abandoned altogether, the UN member states must commit themselves to full enforcement and supplement sanc- tions with negotiation if they are to avoid a nuclear North Korea. It will undoubt- edly be difficult to convince Kim Jong Un that he has more to gain from compro- mise than risky provocations, but not im- possibly so. If the world addresses North Korea’s prevailing goal of state security by making clear that the regime’s economic and political future depends on reform and disarmament – a position whose credibil- ity requires eliminating Chinese complic- ity and American resistance to diplomatic engagement – the well-worn policy stick of sanctions can be supported with much- needed carrot incentives in dealing with North Korea that may yet prove effective. •

ASIA & OCEANIA // 19 The Wolves of Pyongyang The Risky Rise of North Korea’s Market - John Soltis

he veil of the Hermit Kingdom is no- gime’s sole driving interest is self-preservation. toriously difficult to penetrate. De- From the perspective of the regime, a policy of T spite this, a steady trickle of informa- a gradual slowdown of its nuclear program and tion from defectors and informants has revealed détente with the internal community would a market economy growing beneath the grip offer Kim Jong Un the greatest longevity. Cur- of the mafia state. This market economy, both rently, Kim Jong Un’s strategy aims to terrorize illicit and legal, has proven essential to the sur- the ruling elite while gradually loosening the vival and enrichment of millions of North Ko- state’s stranglehold on its struggling citizens. reans. Despite this potential, the regime risks This path allows Kim to keep his throne secure destroying the market with its provocative nu- WIKIMEDIA COMMONS from an enterprising general’s coup d’état with- clear program. It is in the obvious interest of out further alienating his people. The current both the North Korean people and the ruling These fears were seemingly vindicated when deplorable corruption of the state allows the elite to encourage the growth of the market and South Korea shut down its operations at Kae- ruling elites to siphon resources from the poor not provoke sanctions. song Industrial Complex, a jointly run venture when the state falls on hard times. While this Until the 1970s, the North Korean economy between the Koreas, in response to the recent system is somewhat necessary to avoid backlash outpaced that of its southern neighbor, but fol- satellite launch and nuclear test. Kim Jong Un’s from the upper echelons of political society, lowing the collapse of Soviet Union, the regime goal of a more prosperous North Korea is still the regime could reduce the damage extractive fell on hard times. Due to a lack of Soviet as- apparently secondary to his military ambitions. elites have on the average citizen by incremen- sistance and poor crop yields, North Korea was In some ways it is unsurprising that the tally legalizing portions of the black market. A plagued by famine throughout the 1990s. In North Korean regime seems hell-bent on ac- path of glacial market reforms and repression response to the inflexibility of the command quiring nuclear weapons. After witnessing the of potential challengers would offer the regime economy and the subsequent influx of inter- violent destruction of the Saddam Hussein re- its best chance at survival. national aid, a black market began to grow. gime in following accusations of weapons of Despite its protestations, the ruling re- A merchant class, called donju, has enriched mass destruction, the state sees nuclear weap- gime’s interests do not squarely align with that themselves with the influx of hard currency ons as the only true guarantee against western of its citizens. From the perspective the aver- and corrupt officials willing to look the other aggression. Perhaps rightly so, considering that age North Korean, the eventual collapse of the way for a cut of the profit. In addition to the its main strategic ally, China, has shown a re- regime ought to be a fundamental platform. entrepreneurial acts of the donju, the regime cent willingness to also condemn North Korean Nevertheless, an immediate collapse of the re- has also developed a taste for freer markets. The abuses. Yet, through it is in a breakneck pursuit gime would cause so much death and destruc- government, in a rare act of competence, has of a nuclear deterrent, the regime has arguably tion to the populace that it is an unacceptable in recent years allowed families to sell thirty increased the risk of this very scenario. Previ- goal. Instead a program of gradual market ori- percent of any surplus on the market and grow ously, China’s fear of a massive influx of refu- ented reforms, accelerating in impact over time, kitchen farms of up to 3,300 square meters. gees and American troops on its border made would likely yield the best results. In addition, These changes have been critical to feeding the continuing the Kim dynasty a priority. It is not a regime that oriented itself away from terror current population. inconceivable that in the future an unstable and and towards efficiency, perhaps modeling the Unfortunately, there is also established prec- nuclear-armed North Korea might be over- Chinese, would greatly improve the lives of edent for rolling back reforms and squeezing, or thrown by China itself in the interest of estab- the ordinary citizen. Disappointingly, such a even executing, donju. For example, Kim Jong lishing a friendlier puppet state. Alternatively, competent and farsighted regime is currently Il announced small market oriented reforms in North Korean provocation may threaten South unlikely. For now, North Koreans will have 2002 that he then removed by 2005. Kim Jong Korean and American interests so extremely as to improve their lives from beneath the heavy Un is seemingly more interested in improving to force their hand. Even if the regime avoids hand of the state through luck, industry, and the living standards of the average North Kore- an externally forced collapse, the pursuit of the manipulation of a greedy ruling caste. • an and has appointed Pak Pong Ju, the architect nuclear weapons promises increased sanctions of the 2002 reforms, as Premier. Despite this, and tougher reactions from Beijing, Seoul, and Kim Jong Un still displays his father’s tenden- Washington. Sanctions threaten North Korea’s cies, and has persecuted donju following past critical yet fragile market, and the stability and nuclear tests to fill state coffers. According to wealth that it grants the regime. the DailyNK, a Seoul based news site with in- In an ideal state, one would argue for great- formants in North Korea, many donju expect er market reforms, decreased corruption, and that a new round of extortion will take place increased personal freedoms. But North Ko- to make up for the most recent nuclear test. rea is not an ideal state, and its Orwellian re-

20 // ASIA & OCEANIA Rainbow Flag Does Not Fly

- Bing Sun n July 4th, 2015, one girl in the Despite the growing acceptance of sexual graduating class of Sun Yat-Sen OUniversity in Guangzhou, China minorities in the Chinese society, particu- received rapturous applause from the entire stadium during the graduation ceremony. larly among the younger generations, the Wan Qing, a journalism major, went on LGBT community should not get their hopes up to stage draped in a rainbow flag when her name was called. She asked the University for a more progressive stance from the govern- President, Luo Jun, to “make a gesture of support for sexual minorities.” Pictures of ment anytime soon.” her and the President making a clenched fist gesture, signifying encouragement, and hugging on stage quickly became popular same-sex marriage case. Last June, Hunan marriage, law, and sociology, hosted by the on the Chinese Internet. Her public com- Province’s local registry office denied Sun government when China was revising its ing out stirred a debate on homosexuality Wenlin and his partner’s application to tie marriage law. She faced pushback from her and gay rights in China, drawing both sup- the knot, insisting that only a man and a peers for this proposal. In 2001, she wrote port and criticism from the virtual commu- woman could marry. Sun sued the registry for the first time a proposal recommending nity. Homosexuality was decriminalized in in December. To many people’s surprise, two options to make same-sex marriage le- China in 1997 and then eliminated from the Furong District People’s Court accepted gal. A delegate from Shanghai brought the the official list of mental illnesses in 2001. the case in early January. Nonetheless, one proposal to the National People’s Congress However, the Chinese government has re- should not over-interpret the acceptance but was unable to gather the thirty signa- mained silent on gay issues since then, mak- of the case. In October 2014, the Chinese tures required to proceed to further evalu- ing the legal status and position of LGBT Communist Party unprecedentedly devoted ation. Since then, Li has made tremendous people unclear. A study done by the Pew its entire fourth plenary session of the 18th efforts to push the proposal, but the result Research center shows that from 2007 to Congress to discuss “rule of law,” passing an is disappointing. Similarly, other gay rights 2013, the acceptance of homosexuality grew ambitious plan of legal reform. In an effort activists, parents with homosexual kids, and from 17 percent to 21 percent. Support rate to remove barriers to taking legal actions in college students have tried to mass mail among young people (18 to 29) is 32 per- China, the Supreme People’s Court issued the delegates or post open letters online. cent. However, a report published in 2015 guidelines last year, stating that cases must However, very few delegates have an inter- by the biggest online dating site in China, be accepted when they are registered, rath- est in LGBT issues or decline to help due Jiayuan.com, with assistance from the Chi- er than after a preliminary review of their to media pressure. Even if a delegate agrees nese Academy of Sciences states that, when merits. The guidelines also require courts to take the proposal to conference sessions, provided a neutral option in the question- to respond to litigants promptly, address like in 2015, the number of signatures need- naire, only around 20 percent of the single disputes, and avoid ignoring claims. Thus, ed has been an insurmountable obstacle. population is against homosexuality. Sur- the Furong District Court is only follow- Therefore, the proposal has never reached veys taken in universities in Beijing indicate ing the procedure that was formalized after the next stage, justifying the government’s that only 7 percent of the students stand the CCP professed its commitment to le- continuous inaction. Without a catalyzing firmly in the “unacceptable” camp. Howev- gal reform. In fact, the court notified Sun incident, it is unlikely that this disinterest er, despite the growing acceptance of sexual and his lawyer that the hearing would be will end anytime soon, leaving nothing that minorities in the Chinese society, particu- delayed two days before its scheduled time, would force the government to respond. larly among the younger generations, the providing no explanation. As this example Furthermore, the state censorship of LGBT community should not get their demonstrates, the outlook for LGBT rights various forms of entertainment explicitly hopes up for a more progressive stance from in China is gloomy, with no evidence of a displays government-backed intolerance to- the government any time soon. meaningful shift in position from the Chi- wards the LGBT community. The State Ad- Many became hopeful of progress in gay nese government on gay rights. ministration of Radio, Film, and Television rights because of several recent examples of On the legislative front, the LGBT issue is notorious for issuing bans on movies and local courts accepting “groundbreaking” lacks momentum. China’s leading sexologist TV series that have “sensitive contents.” The cases. However, this is the corollary of on- Li Yinhe is a long-time supporter of same- first mainland movie about homosexuals, going Chinese legal reform, not a sign of sex marriage. She first raised the issue of le- East Palace, West Palace (1996) by Zhang the government wavering on gay issues. The galizing same-sex marriage in 2000 during a Yuan, is still forbidden from public view- most noticeable legal example is China’s first meeting that gathered top scholars studying ing. The authority claims that it “slanders

ASIA & OCEANIA // 21 socialism and propagates corrupted ideas.” the more practical entry point of fight- The Oscar-winning Brokeback Mountain ing for equal rights, is to promote social (2005) by Chinese director Ang Lee was awareness and acceptance. The activists not able to escape the restriction either. will need to devise innovative plans to Foreign movies that wish to enter the Chi- achieve this goal; only then will the LGBT nese market are also closely investigated. community be able to form formidable Cloud Atlas (2012) obtained the permit alliances and pressure the government to only after cutting 40 minutes of footage effect changes. • concerning homosexuality. There is no sign of loosening the censorship: the in- stant internet hit Addicted (2016), a gay school romance web series, disappeared online in less a month. A new set of rules on TV production by the State Adminis- tration was leaked online afterwards. The rules, issued on December 31, 2015, ex- plicitly states that with regard to sexual content, “abnormal sexual relationships or behavior” such as homosexuality are for- bidden. With disappearance of Addicted, China’s top broadcast regulator has made it clear that the country’s booming online television industry should be subjected to the same restriction. Some may point to the success of Jin Xing, the most famous transgender person in China, as evidence of growing openness. However, despite creating a widely popular talk show in 2015, her show rarely covers LGBT is- sues. People tune in because she is sar- castic and fun to watch. This is probably the reason the authorities have appeared to be more tolerant. At the same time, without the media, an average Chinese citizen has little chance of being exposed to LGBT issues, let alone accepting sex- ual minorities and joining the campaign to call for equal rights. The government, consequently, finds no urgency in shift- ing its policy. The Chinese LGBT community’s hope that the government would break the si- lence and take a stance protecting gay rights is completely wishful thinking. There are few, if any, positive signs from the judicial, legislative, and media per- spectives. Unless the CCP is deliberately acting secretly in order to throw a sur- prise party for the sexual minorities, one should not expect an official friendly ges- ture anytime soon. The pressing issue, and

22 // ASIA & OCEANIA The Fate of Chinese Legal Reform Rule by Law or Rule by Party? - Hannah Feldshuh

espite the dramatic transformations In the absence of robust economic expansion, of China’s economic and social land- the Chinese Communist Party will need rule Dscape over the past thirty years, the legal system has failed to keep pace. To address of law, not rule by Party, to ensure its continued its legal dysfunction, the Chinese Communist legitimacy.” Party (CCP) made legal reform the focal point of the 2014 Fourth Plenum, emphasizing the importance of “rule of law” in guiding Chinese for lawyer intimidation, soft repression mea- amples of extra-legal measures that undermine judicial and legal reforms. Subsequent months sures such as “harmonious demolition” fur- efforts to regularize judicial practice. State-tele- marked some positive steps in moving towards ther threaten rule of law reforms. “Harmonious vised confessions have grown in number in re- a rule based system, including separation of demolition” refers to the process of removing cent years, with sixteen since Xi took office in powers, improving judge quality, and empha- residents from homes slated for demolition by 2012. The most recent were broadcast in Janu- sizing the role of procedural justice. Despite local governments. To foster agreement, “demo- ary 2016 and featured confessions from the co- these positive signals, President Xi Jinping has lition headquarters” are created (often staffed by founder of a human rights advocacy training asserted that the role of the Party will remain family members of the houses that are due for organization and a Hong Kong-based publisher. dominant; saying that rule of law is “a knife removal), at times relying on a combination of These televised confessions both shape public whose handle was in the hands of the party public shaming, persuasion, threats, and fines if opinion and aim to intimidate troublemak- and the people.” While the Fourth Plenum residents refuse. Although China’s State Coun- ers. Reminiscent of the self-criticism rituals reforms mark an important step to transform cil has condemned this practice, coercion in the of the Cultural Revolution, this practice runs the Chinese legal landscape, lawyer persecu- process of demolition is an enduring practice. contrary to Fourth Plenum reform efforts and tion, persistent soft repression, and televised To counteract this issue, the process should mir- threatens the construction of an open and fair confessions threaten efforts at reform and harm ror mechanisms recognized by other nations, judicial system. Party legitimacy. such as the US’s eminent domain, wherein gov- Given the mammoth scope of legal reform Persecution of public interest lawyers is one ernments must follow an established procedure in China, progress in rule of law reforms is element threatening the legitimacy and sustain- to prove the need for public use of the land and not inconsequential. Inroads have improved ability of Chinese legal reforms. Weiquan (or allow for appeal. the professionalization of courts, adherence to “rights defense”) lawyers advocate for social is- Random detentions are another tactic that procedural justice, and autonomy from party sues that are often of a sensitive nature, includ- harms state credibility and garners negative in- and government agencies. Despite these efforts, ing wrongful conviction, housing demolitions, ternational attention. In recent months five Party-oriented mentality remains an enduring environmental pollution, and Internet censor- people have gone missing, all with connections issue that creates fundamental friction with rule ship. July 2015 marked an open crackdown on to the Mighty Current Publishing House and of law reforms. As long as prosecutors, judges, weiquan lawyers, particularly the Beijing-based Causeway Bay Books, which has been known to and police officers still see themselves as arms of firm Fengrui. According to Amnesty Interna- publish works that are frequently banned on the the state, lasting rule of law reform will remain tional, over 100 lawyers were detained or ar- mainland. In February 2016, three Hong Kong elusive. In order to solve problematic practices rested during July 2015 alone, with two more booksellers resurfaced in Guangdong under such as soft repression measures, forced dis- Fengrui employees detained during January investigation for “illegal activities” after being appearances, and lawyer persecution, further 2015. Fengrui faces accusations of disrupting missing for 100 days. Under current formula- separation of state ideology from regional and public order and has been branded a criminal tions of Chinese law, suspects can be held for local legal practice is essential. Fourth Plenum organization in state media. While public in- up to six months if they are under “residential reforms signal recognition of the importance terest lawyers frequently face persecution, this surveillance in a designated location” before of rule of law reforms. In the coming years as was the latest and most concentrated effort that making a formal arrest. These disappearances the Chinese economy enters a “new normal” seems to signal state concerns about the balance of activists and others are not restricted domes- of more moderate growth, legal reform will be- of rule of law reforms and “stability mainte- tically, but have also occurred in Thailand and come increasingly important. In the absence of nance.” This demonstration of Party power is elsewhere on foreign soil. Forced disappear- robust economic expansion, the Chinese Com- not only detrimental to Chinese civil society, ances, especially internationally, undermines munist Party will need rule of law, not rule it is harmful to Party legitimacy at home and Chinese soft power and threatens foreign ties. by Party, to ensure its continued legitimacy. • abroad. Unlawful detentions and arrests under- To preserve its international credibility and in- cut promises for rule of law reforms domestical- ternal rule of law efforts, this practice of arrest ly and decrease Chinese credibility in regional and detainment must end. and international agreements. Public confessions, many of which occurred In addition to this use of the legal system prior to any official legal action, are prime -ex

ASIA & OCEANIA // 23 Strides and Stagnation Policy Responses to Sexual Assault in India - Hannah Feldshuh

n 2012, Jyoti Singh Pandey, a physiother- Legislation that leaves any women subject apy student in Mumbai, was savagely to sexual violence without legal recourse is a I raped by six men and assaulted with an iron rod while riding a bus in Mumbai with heinous miscarriage of justice that must be rectified.” a male companion. Internal injuries included the destruction of 95 percent of her intestines, and she died shortly after reaching the hospi- tion “has the potential of destroying the insti- is dressed decently, a boy will not look at her in tal. The brutality of this attack and its brazen tution of marriage,” and that “if the marital the wrong way. Freedom has to be limited… nature sparked national outrage and garnered rape is brought under the law, the entire family Our country’s tradition asks girls to dress de- global attention, leading many to ask what is system will be under great stress.” Others as- cently.” Without a systematic approach to gen- being done to protect India’s women and girls. sert that a marital rape clause would be hard to der and sex sensitivity training, an engrained As a result, a panel of experts known as the prosecute and could be misused. Some lawyers mentality of victim blaming will be difficult to Justice Verma Commission developed a report argue that the government is reluctant to crimi- combat. geared to address gaps in India’s legislation to- nalize marital rape because they would have to Stories like the rape of Jyoti Singh Pandey wards sex and gender based violence. India’s address laws on religious practices, including are heartbreaking examples of senseless violence Parliament adopted many of these recommen- the Hindu Marriage Act 1955, which says that and violation. While her death broke through dations in a 2013 amendment to the Criminal a wife is duty-bound to have sex with her hus- public apathy and galvanized much needed ac- Law, which expands the definition of rape and band. Indian legislators believe that criminaliz- tion, combating violence against women can’t sexual harassment, increases minimum sen- ing marital rape will be politically unpopular, as be a reactive process, dependent on public out- tences, introduces the possibility of the death it will require addressing contentious religious rage to high profile rape cases that are then penalty, makes police officers liable if they -ig regulations. Despite the assertions of lawmak- quickly forgotten. As director of Social and nore complaints, and encourages resolution of ers, the ability to prosecute rape does not de- Economic Development at the International cases within two months of filing. In spite of stroy the institution of marriage; rape does. A Center for Research on Women, Priya Nanda these additional protections, violent and visible 2000 survey from the United Nations Popula- has said, the current model demands change attacks against women remain prevalent. De- tion Fund found that two thirds of married In- from “time to time on a particular rape, then spite clear issues of chronic under-reporting, of- dian women claimed to have been forced into there’s the diagnosis of that rape, and we move ficial statistics from the National Crime Records sex by their husbands. Legislation that leaves onto the next one.” India, and the global com- Bureau indicate an increase from 2012 to 2014, any women subject to sexual violence without munity, can’t afford to treat rape as a topic of with an average of 92 women raped per day. legal recourse is a heinous miscarriage of justice occasional interest. • The Justice Verma Commission’s measures have that must be rectified. done much to address legislative gaps, however Without a systematic shift in mental- criminalization of teenage sex, the continued ity and attitude towards women, harsher leg- legality of marital rape, and the absence of sex islation will have a limited impact. Education, and violence education are problematic and particularly early-childhood education, needs must be addressed. to address the sexual assault mentality before With recent legislative changes, if an unmar- violence against women is internalized as nor- ried girl and boy under the age of 18 have con- mal. A survey from the Children’s Movement sensual sex, the boy has committed statutory for Civic Awareness, a Bangalore-based NGO, rape and risks criminal action. Criminalization explored perceptions of sexual assault among of teenage sex is an intrusive stance on youth over 10,000 high school and college students sexuality, does not address the issue of sexual across India. Findings reported that 57 percent violence, and risks misuse. Legislators should of boys and 52 percent of girls believed that not direct limited energy to outlaw teenage sex, when women “dress and behave provocatively” when the problematic and pervasive crime of they evoke violent behavior from men. A fur- marital rape remains legal. The Verma Com- ther 43 percent of boys and 39 percent of girls mittee proposal criminalizing marital rape was agreed that, “women have no choice but to an area glaringly ignored in recent legal reform. accept a certain degree of violence.” These so- Under current legislation, marital rape is not cialized perceptions are not exclusive to school- illegal as long as the bride is at least 16 years children. In 2014, Manohar Lal Khattar, the of age. A panel of legislators who opposed the top elected official of the state of Haryana, ex- marital rape clauses asserted that such legisla- pressed similar sentiments, saying that, “if a girl

24 // ASIA & OCEANIA The Great Divide Narendra Modi, Kanhaiya Kumar, and the Polarized Sedition Debate - Vineet Chandra

n this era of the internet, information is The legal argument against Kanhaiya Kumar, cheap and opinions are cheaper still. An then, is laughable at best.” I unrecognized side effect of this age of ac- cess, one that lurks just beneath the surface of the daily news cycle, is the ever-rising presence merly associated with the Communist party on fighters. In 1962, the Supreme Court held that of instant controversy. Perhaps at no other time campus, is clearly an opposition figure for the simply uttering a statement against the state in history has any single event had the ability students at JNU. Kumar’s party affiliation, cou- is not remotely close to advocating for action to divide a nation so quickly. This phenom- pled with allegations that the video presented as against the state, and that a simple statement enon was clearly exhibited in the recent affair primary evidence against him was doctored to of dissent is indeed covered by the freedom at Jawarahlal Nehru University (JNU) in New make it seem like he himself chanted the anti- of speech clause. This standing was reaffirmed Delhi, India: on February 12th, JNU Student national slogans rather than someone else in in 1995, when the Supreme Court held that a Union President Kanhaiya Kumar was arrest- the crowd, paints a picture of a young dissident man chanting slogans in support of a separate ed on charges of sedition for allegedly chant- being explicitly targeted for his speech against Punjabi nation was not guilty of sedition be- ing anti-India slogans at a rally protesting the the actions of the ruling government. In March cause he was not actively advocating for any hanging of a convicted terrorist. Though he was 2015, almost a year after Narendra Modi took specific, violent act against the state. In this released on the March 3rd, the charges against office, India Today Editor-in-Chief Aroon Purie case, Kanhaiya Kumar is accused of chanting him have not been dropped at the time of this wrote about him in an opinion piece, saying, slogans that translate to “break India up into publication. Kumar’s arrest and alleged involve- “The way to govern this complicated country little pieces” and “long live Pakistan.” Even if ment in the rally have sparked outcry on two is to engage in discussions and win arguments he did say these things, his first statement urges fronts; some believe that students ought to with those who disagree by selling your idea to no actionable, violent act against the state, and stay out of politics altogether, and that no one them. Squashing dissent, surrounding yourself the second statement is completely unrelated should get away with chanting anti-national with those who praise you, and believing your to the state because India is not currently at slogans. Others find it outrageous that any- own propaganda, is a sure way to lose touch war with Pakistan. The legal argument against body in modern India could be tried for simply with reality.” The JNU affair, then, fits nicely Kanhaiya Kumar, then, is laughable at best. The saying something, and that Kumar’s arrest is a with the ongoing narrative that Modi chooses case against him, however, continues, and the prime example of the efforts of the Bharatiya to ignore dissent instead of addressing it. longer Narendra Modi continues to ignore the Janata Party (BJP) government to silence any The other side of this argument is not com- scandal altogether, the more poorly it reflects and all dissent. Both sides find the other side’s pletely baseless. There is a large portion of India on him as the head of state. argument entirely egregious, and there is little that feels that Kumar is wrong to have engaged To truly stand as the leader of a united In- middle ground to be found. Despite the two in such a political issue. Many feel that by pro- dia, Narendra Modi must address the grievances distinct opinions on Kanhaiya Kumar as a per- testing the death penalty as applied against a against him. In addition to the shoddy legal case son, there is one fact that is abundantly clear: man who was a convicted terrorist, Kumar is against Kumar, Modi’s refusal to even comment Kanhaiya Kumar’s arrest is legally warrantless. by extension guilty of endorsing the acts of ter- on this matter and other similar affairs are in- Furthermore, by failing to address the JNU rorism. For this, they argue, he must be pun- dicative of an unfortunate indifference towards saga, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has turned ished. One BJP supporter said, “We Indians the will of the people he serves. It is possible Kanhaiya Kumar into a formidable symbol of will not tolerate this. They cannot raise slogans that Modi is emboldened by his widespread true Indian freedom, and a hero for the oppo- against our country. It is not free speech — it support; even those who predicted that Modi’s sition. To unite the country and to quell this is speech against our country… It’s a plot to election would be a disaster for minority rights great divide, Modi must rise above the fray and destabilize our country.” While the arguments in India have admitted that the beginning of address this issue in a measured way, rather than against Kumar are largely emotional, there is a his term has been a pleasant surprise. For this pretending it does not exist. very real public feeling that he is simply a radi- reason, perhaps, Modi chooses to ignore the On one side of the JNU affair are the people cal left-wing troublemaker causing trouble for criticisms against his government. Until Modi of India that feel Kanhaiya Kumar is being un- no good reason. addresses the JNU scandal head on and takes a fairly targeted due to his opposition party af- Heightening the tensions between these two stand, however, there will likely be little justice filiations, and that the charges against him are viewpoints is one simple fact: the legal argu- for Kanhaiya Kumar, and this ever growing tear unfounded. Indeed, there is merit to this argu- ment against Kanhaiya Kumar is utter hogwash. in the fabric of Indian national politics will not ment. Modi’s BJP is the conservative party of The sedition law under which Kumar is being be sewn back together. • India, which encourages deregulation to make charged, Section 124a of the Indian Penal Code, India an appealing destination for large multi- was devised and implemented by the British national businesses, as well as furthering some government prior to Indian independence in policies based in Hindu beliefs. Kumar, for- 1947, and was often used to try Indian freedom

ASIA & OCEANIA // 25 A Clean Shave Tajikistan’s Dangerous Solution to Combating Extremist Ideology - Jack Ulses

n early January of this year, President to take a hard line against non-secular politics practices he deemed dangerous to the state as the Emomali Rahmon of Tajikistan ordered in Tajikistan. As a result, the recent rise of ISIS major reason for his defection. Therefore, Rah- I 13,000 men to trim their beards as a sym- has prompted his government to undertake ex- mon needs to realize the greater implications of bol of their commitment to moderate Islam and treme measures to prevent the spread of their policies aimed at cutting Islamic practices from to fight against what he cited as “foreign” influ- fundamentalist ideology, which would endanger an overwhelmingly Muslim population. ences. On the outside, this appears to be an at- his status as president. This fear has resulted in Further compounding the threat of extrem- tempt by the Tajik government to repress the policies such as banning hijabs and ostracizing ist ideology is the weary economic state of the potential influence of ISIS and the Taliban on opposition parties, as well as allegations of ram- country. According to a 2011 report by the young, unemployed males. Yet, some critics ar- pant election fraud on the side of radical groups. International Federation for Human Rights, gue that this is a thinly veiled ploy that allows Such policies against the threat of ISIS close to 90 percent of Tajiks who go abroad Rahmon to further consolidate his power. They would appear to help promote stability and to find work end up in Russia. However, the view this tactic as part of a grand strategy that order in a country susceptible to the extrem- current Western sanctions placed on Russia has given Rahmon an opportunity to ban op- ist ideology. Yet, there has not been a recorded and the subsequent depreciation of the ruble position parties under the auspices of ridding ISIS attack in Tajikistan to date. Rahmon has have threatened to decrease job availability for Tajikistan of any threat of Islamic radicalization. instead used the threat of ISIS to further posit a workforce reliant on migrant agricultural and However, cutting beards and banning opposition flamboyant rhetoric against any Islamic opposi- industrial labor. Tajikistan has also ranked near parties will not stop extremist ideology. On the tion. In a September speech last year, Rahmon the bottom for human rights, inequality, and contrary, such policies have adversely catalyzed warned that Tajiks who join ISIS will “burn on the Human Development Index. With Rah- long held prejudices against the ruling elite, and in Hell,” and called ISIS “the plague of the mon’s power secure until 2020, these trends have encouraged young Tajik males to join the century.” Shortly after this speech, the Islamic are likely to continue. Deteriorating economic ranks of ISIS. Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT), an op- conditions have coincided with a large number The modern day Tajikistan ruling class, led position group to the People’s Democratic Party of Tajiks leaving to pursue other opportunities, by President Rahmon, is a product of the 1992 to of Tajikistan (PDPT) headed by Rahmon, was including joining the ranks of the Taliban and 1997 civil war that saw brutal politics and fight- ordered by Tajik authorities to shut down. The ISIS. Current estimates put the number of Tajik ing reminiscent of the power vacuum left after IRPT was a political party that fought against fighters anywhere between 400 to upwards of Lenin’s death in the Soviet Union in the 1920s. Rahmon and his government in the civil war, 2,000 men, some of whom, like Col. Kharimov, Emomali Rahmon rose from the ranks of the and reformed as a political entity in opposi- have joined due to the oppressive tactics against former Tajik Soviet Socialist Republic, and was tion to the PDPT following their defeat. Until certain moderate Islamic practices. Rahmon’s Chairman of the Union Committee of the col- recently, they were the only registered Islamic policy of cutting beards and his willingness to lective farm in Danghara when the country split opposition party in the country. Rahmon and suppress the only Islamic opposition party in apart after the fall of the USSR. Rahmon and his government claimed that shutting down the Tajikistan has sent a message to Tajiks that po- his supporters were able to successfully survive IRPT was necessary because they did not have litical dissent is not tolerated, thereby making against attacks from the United Tajik Opposi- enough supporters to run a legitimate political the fundamentalist ideology preached by ISIS a tion, Jamiat-e Islami and other predominantly party. Coincidentally, within the same week of more viable alternative to the oppressive regime. Islamic groups, including groups supported by banning the group, over 50 IRPT offices around Nonetheless, the Tajik parliament recently Al-Qaeda. Fighting ceased when the “Moscow the country were forced to close as well. This passed a constitutional amendment allowing Protocol” was signed on June 27, 1997, and the decision to ban the only Islamic opposition has Rahmon to run for office indefinitely. These opposition groups agreed to a power-sharing undoubtedly affected the relationship between policies would appear to be the status quo for ceasefire that ensured them high-ranking govern- Rahmon and the citizens of Tajikistan, 80 per- the foreseeable future, as another amendment ment positions. This was quickly superseded by cent of whom are practicing Muslims. was made to lower the presidential age require- allegations of fraud in the 1999 elections that saw Rahmon, who himself is a Sunni Muslim, has ment so his son can run in 2020. For any change Rahmon win 97 percent of the popular vote, and chosen to run a secular government dating back in policies to materialize there needs to be a dis- an amendment in 2003 that allowed him to run to his first term in office. This decision has led to cussion about plausible Tajik opposition to the for two additional seven-year terms following recent cracks within his administration against regime. The recent ousting of the lone Islamic the expiration of his presidential term in 2006. his harsh policies towards non-secular rule in opposition party in a country that is almost Many critics argue that Rahmon has car- response to the threat of ISIS. One notable ex- exclusively Muslim will only serve to further ried over the legacy of repressive tactics used ample is that of Colonel Gulmurod Khalimov, dampen public opinion of the quality of the to consolidate power during the civil war to a US trained leader of a Special Forces unit loyal regime. Rahmon needs to realize that block- his current administration. The threat of any to the Rahmon regime who left to join ISIS early ing radical ideology through the suppression of Islamic opposition group unseating Rahmon last year. In deserting his post, the popular com- moderate Islamic practices is not a long-term has undoubtedly influenced his policy choice mander cited Rahmon’s hard line against Islamic solution to holding onto power. •

26 // EUROPE Troubled Times? How a “Brexit” Could Damage Anglo-Irish Relations - Katherine Mercieca

ince the United Kingdom began explor- The cost of these initiatives is measured in for fallout in Anglo-Irish relations as fear mon- ing the possibility of leaving the Euro- billions, but their importance to local commu- gering. Northern Ireland’s First Minister Arlene S pean Union, a phenomenon known as nities is indeed invaluable. According Taoiseach Foster said that the UK would promote “practi- “Brexit,” the wider European community has Enda Kenny, the head of the Irish government, cal solutions” following a Brexit, which would expressed considerable anxiety over the future the EU channeled €2.4 billion into Northern allow people’s free movement to remain unaf- of the EU’s social and financial well-being. Ireland between 2007 and 2013. These funds fected. Given the close economic, geographic, While the UK may risk compromising its re- helped to decrease residual violence while fa- and social links between Ireland and the UK, lations with continental countries, however, cilitating reconciliation efforts on a local level. along with the desire for continuing positive its improved sociopolitical relationship with Meanwhile, the EU could spend up to an ad- Anglo-Irish relations, one could argue that Ire- the Republic of Ireland stands to lose the most. ditional €229 million by 2020 to create shared land has no reason to fear a Brexit and that it is April 10th, 2016 marked the eighteenth education and other projects aimed at uniting in the UK’s best interests to fund peacekeeping anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement. Protestants and Catholics. Should the UK cut and cross-border initiatives in Northern Ireland. This deal formally ended the Troubles, a vio- itself off from EU funding, it risks undermin- David Cameron’s primary reasons for a pos- lent thirty-year conflict with primarily Catholic ing costly and time-consuming progress and sible EU exit, however, are directly opposed Northern Irish nationalists who wanted North- reducing further efforts to engage in a dialogue to open borders. In a November 2015 speech, ern Ireland to separate from the United King- essential to maintaining regional peace. Should Cameron expressed the UK’s desire to assume dom and join the Irish Republic. Meanwhile, sectarian violence reemerge or the nations dis- control over its borders and reduce EU citizens’ the unionists, who comprised the Protestant agree on how to spend their funds, they will “abuse” of their right to freedom of movement. majority, wanted Northern Ireland to remain not have a third party to mitigate potentially Cameron could broker a special deal with the in the UK. Since the Agreement, the UK and detrimental disputes. During the Troubles, this Republic, but it is obvious that he and the To- Ireland made considerable strides in improving violence claimed 3,600 lives, injured 50,000, ries do not want EU members to have unre- Anglo-Irish relations by bringing local com- and caused widespread psychological damage stricted access to the UK. munities together and opening the border be- to both warring parties. Cameron’s demands also do not bode well tween Northern Ireland and the Republic of A Brexit could also isolate Northern nation- for fair peacekeeping initiatives. In a letter to Ireland. Most of this progress depended on alists, because the open border between North- the European Council, Cameron articulated his EU support and the maintenance of these rela- ern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland could desire to increase British sovereignty within the tions requires the continued EU membership of vanish along with ongoing peace conversations. EU, which would likely result in a commensu- both of the nations. A Brexit would, therefore, No physical line of demarcation currently exists rate decrease in other countries’ abilities to ne- disrupt Anglo-Irish relations by uprooting the between the North and the Republic, and trav- gotiate with the UK. By extension, Britain’s in- ways in which the UK and Ireland have worked elers can cross the border without a passport. creased sovereignty upon exiting the EU would toward peace. This freedom of movement allows communities create an imbalance of power between Britain The Good Friday Agreement and its subse- on both sides of the border to remain socially, and Ireland if the EU no longer involves itself in quent peace initiatives were successful because culturally, and economically integrated. But peacekeeping efforts. This is not to say that Brit- of the EU’s role in financing cooperation be- one of the central goals of Brexit supporters, ain will exploit Ireland or completely neglect tween both nations. According to Ireland’s Cen- including UKIP’s Deputy Leader Paul Nuttall, negotiations. Rather, the EU’s absence would tre for Cross Border Studies, one of the deal’s is to prevent “outsiders” from entering the UK. increase the possibility that Ireland would be at key provisions includes “the implementation This initiative would involve establishing “hard a disadvantage in future bilateral negotiations. of EU policies and programmes and proposals” borders” equipped with passport checks, cus- Indeed, the UK must consider its commit- under an EU framework. These “programmes toms posts, watchtowers, and, at worst, walls ment to peace, among many other issues, when and proposals” operate on EU funding since and razor wire fences. Such a frontier would deciding whether the supposed gains of a Brexit both countries claimed EU membership when send a hostile message to southern neighbor- are worth the potentially significant costs. A they signed the agreement. This monetary sup- ing communities, suggesting that they are un- Brexit would test the UK’s diplomatic where- port would be eliminated, or at least severely desirable “foreigners” that belong outside the withal by demonstrating whether it has the curtailed, if the UK exits the European Union UK’s national boundary. Northern national- skills and desire necessary to maintain positive because only Ireland would subsequently be ists would likewise feel symbolically detached relationships in the face of incredibly delicate eligible for funding. While it remains hypo- from the Republic. This could revive any latent proceedings. Should its priorities dictate other- thetically possible for both countries to con- nationalist sentiments in the North if support- wise, however, old wounds could resurface and tinue funding these projects in the absence of ers become increasingly vocal as they become all Irish communities, irrespective of borders, EU support, the UK would place an undue physically and culturally disconnected from the could pay the ultimate physical and emotional financial burden on Ireland and experience a remainder of the island. price. • significant constraint on its own budget. Yet pro-Brexit critics dismiss the potential

EUROPE // 27 How France Must Rethink Calais

- Justin Berg

graffiti piece by renowned artist Banksy crossings unsuccessfully – too often hindered appeared two months ago in an un- by personal injuries or clashes with the police. Alikely place: Calais, France, the flash- Migrants failing to cross only further strain point of many debates surrounding refugees. the resources of the British and French govern- His piece depicted the late Steve Jobs holding ments, as well as their families. It is too often an iMac and a bindle. Its message was clear: that after having failed a crossing migrants are refugees and their offspring can be the founders worse off than they were previously. In addition of the most innovative and valuable companies to the police, there have also been many issues on the planet. Their potential should not be within the camp itself, including violence. In underestimated. Banksy’s piece, while it did December, one refugee suffered fatal injuries not arrive in a timely manner, is still influen- from being slashed in the neck. Increasingly, tial as ever in a country and continent failing truck drivers (one of the most common ways to properly deal with a crisis. Taking Banksy’s to reach the other side of the tunnel) have faced message, France, which has been at odds with attacks from migrants, prompting some drivers the rapid influx of asylum-seekers, needs to to threaten carrying weapons. realize immigrants’ potential by finding ways France, having endured the November 13th Banksy’s image of Steve Jobs in Calais. WIKIMEDIA COMMONS to assimilate and provide work opportunities Paris attacks perpetrated by the Islamic State, is for people looking to start over. France must already facing a rise in anti-immigration activ- address this issue and take advantage of what ism. Recent weeks have seen a tide of further refugees may offer. anti-immigrant and Islamophobic action in Most migrants, having already endured a Calais, prompting the mayor of Calais to call journey of thousands of miles, have very few for military intervention to help quell protests. possessions. They live in plastic encampments Other means have lessened friction between the near the English Channel which they try to migrants and local populace. Language acqui- cross nearly every night. Many, according to sition has been one solution that has begun to a recent article by The Guardian, wear simple take hold elsewhere in Europe, like Germany. skirts without any other protection from the While it’s not a perfect remedy, if the migrants cold rains of northern France. The conditions can learn the language – and the vast major- in the tent cities, especially last fall, were so ity are either learning French or English in the poor that the Calais camp became known as camps regardless – they may be more easily ab- “the Jungle.” sorbed into the world’s sixth-largest economy. Calais exemplifies the French government’s Another solution is in legislation. If France failure to properly address the migrant crisis. ensures that migrants may pass background The Jungle has become such an issue that France checks, they may either remain in France for recently decided to confront it by building pris- a period of time before moving to where their on-like cells for the nearly 2,000 residents of skills can fulfill European Union needs. There the camp. While this effort is noble, albeit in- are many countries whose aging populations sensitive in that it offers a temporary solution have left manufacturing jobs which go unfilled to the squalid conditions residents endure, it by younger generations. Uneducated migrants fails to tend to the real reason the Calais camp may be able to fill these vacant positions. developed in the first place: its proximity to the What is certain is that France must not con- United Kingdom. Just about every migrant is tinue keeping migrants in this state of limbo attempting to cross the Channel tunnel to be – resisting granting asylum in France in hopes granted asylum in the UK, whose own policies that migrants will relocate to England. If France are only worsening this situation. doesn’t act now, the number of migrants will Unfortunately, there are many difficulties only rise in the camps, and so too will anti- that face migrants attempting to cross the Eng- immigrant sentiment. • lish Channel. One common method, according to The New York Times, is to pay smugglers up- wards of $2,000, further depleting migrants’ al- ready limited resources. Most, however, attempt

28 // EUROPE After Asylum Sexual Education for Norway’s Migrants - Elisabeth Brennen

n the face of the refugee crisis, much of …the course must be made a mandatory part of the European political debate has centered refugee integration programs in Norway – for Ion processing and accommodating the one million asylum seekers that arrived in 2015. Un- all migrants regardless of origin or gender.” til the reports of mass sexual assaults in Cologne on New Year’s Eve 2016, issues of cultural assim- ilation had remained on the backburner. The the reality of international legal and cultural not effectively reverse the attitudes formed over assaults brought to light the problem of cultural disparities in regards to the treatment of women years of living in conservative society. Graduat- assimilation from extremely conservative soci- that can prove confusing to migrants if they ing students often struggle to define consent in eties to liberal ones, but also highlighted the are not educated on the new laws and norms in situations involving alcohol, or that a woman benefits of the cultural integration programs of Norwegian society. According to the Nor- consenting to one sexual activity is not neces- used elsewhere. In winter 2015, Norway began wegian Directorate of Immigration, Syrians, sarily consenting to all sexual activity. Some offering a controversial program for migrants Eritreans, and Afghans comprise the largest leaving the course still do not understand the that focuses on education in Western sexual groups of asylum applicants to the country. illegality of spousal rape. norms. These classes, though facing criticism Although sexual assault is illegal in these coun- Furthermore, the courses should be ex- from both the left and right, address the reality tries, the laws are not well enforced and assault panded to include women’s education in their of international disparities in gender equality, is underreported as women face immense risk program. Without knowledge on the laws and and are an appropriate, necessary response to of violence, honor killings, or being criminal- norms of Norwegian society, such as that re- concerns about assault and assimilation. How- ized themselves for adultery. In Eritrea, spousal ports of sexual misconduct are taken seriously ever the current structure of the course leaves rape is also legal. These laws differ greatly from and that you cannot be criminalized for re- much to be desired in addressing the concerns Norwegian laws, which are strictly enforced and porting assault, migrant women are at risk of of Middle Eastern and North African refugees illegalize all forms of rape, marital or otherwise. underreporting sexual crimes. Married migrant integrating into Norwegian society. The course manuals reference only Norwegian women especially are at risk without this edu- From the right, anti-immigration groups laws, explaining the norms of society in clear cation, as spousal rape may be legal in their such as Human Rights Service have expressed terms: “to force someone into sex is not per- country of origin. These women, who are just that the program does not go far enough in mitted in Norway, even when you are married as unaccustomed to Norwegian culture and ensuring the safety of Norwegian women. to that person.” sexual norms as migrant men are, must know Like many European countries, Norway does On another note, the left’s criticism ignores Norwegian sexual assault laws so that they may not track crime statistics according to race or the practical details of the course. For example, report misconduct regardless of the nationality ethnicity, but their state statistical bureau has in each lesson about the legality and morality of their attacker. stated that immigrants are overrepresented as of sexual assault, the perpetrator is a fictional To adequately address these problems, the perpetrators of violent sexual crime, relating Norwegian character named Arne, while Has- lessons should be made part of their long-term to both a lack of integration as well as lower san, an “honest and well-liked” character prac- integration program that includes language socio-economic status. This claim has been a tices bystander intervention. The courses are courses and government assistance for migrants, rallying cry of anti-migrant conservatives across based on small-group discussion led by a native helping present migrants with a full picture of Europe, and anti-immigration activists call for Norwegian facilitator, encouraging participants Norwegian culture and societal norms. For the a halt to immigration to prevent it. However, to open up about their attitudes towards sex. safety of women in local communities but also as thousands of migrants come to Europe each Linda Hagen of Hero, a company contracted the migrants who may unknowingly break Nor- month, halting immigration will not solve these by the Norwegian government to run these wegian law, the course must be made a man- problems as they exist among existing immi- courses, notes that the courses “turn the roles datory part of refugee integration programs in grant communities. Despite the right’s com- around a bit because there are rapists in all eth- Norway – for all migrants regardless of origin plaints, the new courses on sexual norms are nic groups,” demonstrating their dedication or gender. • a step in the right direction in addressing the to avoiding stereotyping immigrants as sexual concerns of life after an approval stamp on an predators. asylum application. Currently the courses are short-term and Norway’s leftist groups, however, have also voluntary in Norway, and the results have been criticized the courses, reluctant to embrace a somewhat successful. Young men leaving the program that may stigmatize immigrants as po- program express understanding that wearing tential rapists and thereby play into the hands revealing clothing, smiling, flirting, and even of anti-immigration politicians. While these kissing do not mean that woman consents to concerns are legitimate, they blatantly ignore any further sexual activity. However, these do

EUROPE // 29 Italy and Eurozone Reform

- Nick Serra

IGS. This rather offensive acronym -la totally true, the Italians have the right to feel the bels the four countries that have suffered way they do. Greece has been bailed out by Ger- Pthe most severe economic recessions in many while Germany continues special interest Europe – Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain. deals with Russia and gives its own banks fairer Aside from Greece, Italy has the most debt in treatment than Italy. Italian officials believe proportion of GDP in the European Union. that the European Union has more lax rules It is only a matter of time before an inevitable for Germany than other countries and though collapse occurs. Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is Renzi has a reputation for not playing by the facing internal pressure to leave the euro. Italy rules and Germany has been the standard-bear- must now make a tough decision on whether or er of economic austerity, resolutions need to be not to stay in the Eurozone, and it is important made. In this dire situation, bad blood is not that Italy stays. Renzi has demonstrated poten- WIKIMEDIA COMMONS doing the Italians any good and it is hindering tial to guide Italy to a much-needed economic the Italian economic recovery. Germany needs recovery but his political feuds with Germany Renzi plans to reform the labor market by creat- to step back and allow Prime Minister Renzi – in one case, withholding European funding ing a “decentralized wage-setting process” if the more freedom for reform. of Turkish refugee management – do not bode industry cannot create one itself. These modi- As of late 2015, the Italian parliament had well for him. Even so, it would be optimal for fications may alienate some of his voter base, approved plans for a larger budget designed to Germany to yield more economic freedom to and Renzi’s willingness to upset his supporters expedite the Italian recovery process. Critics Italy and for Italy to remain in the European should be noted by the European Union. The argue that this plan will not aid Italy’s budget Union. This can be achieved by allowing Prime current state of affairs is not benefiting Italy’s deficit nor help Italy repays its debt. Howev- Minister Renzi more freedom in his economic economy. Labor productivity and GDP per per- er, Italian officials deserve more leniency than reforms. While ill will remains between Italy son have been in constant decline for years and Germany and its other critics are giving them. and Germany, a proper recovery process is still things certainly look bleak in Italy. Renzi’s rat- Germany argues that a $3.9 billion tax cut to possible within the European Union. Hopefully, ings have drastically fallen and there is fear that the middle class only aims to impress voters and fair results can be achieved so Italy does not have his Democratic Party could lose their hold to the will offer no help to the ailing country’s GDP. to look beyond the euro for its recovery. Five Star Movement. Italy’s third largest bank, However, these tax cuts are a necessary step, Italy’s relationship with the European Union Monti dei Paschi di Siena, suffered a run on its because in order to sustain long-term growth, has seen better days. Prime Minister Renzi feels shares and Italian Banks’ non-performing loan Renzi should be allowed to put money back that the European Union’s “fixation on auster- percentage is the one of the highest in Europe into the pockets of his people to stimulate ity is actually destroying growth.” Recession has (debtors have not been paying their loans for at spending. Debt forgiveness is out of the ques- plagued the country for more than half a de- least 90 days). The movement for another cur- tion, as is evident with the situation in Greece, cade and GDP per capita is at the lowest it has rency is growing stronger and Renzi feels vic- but debt restructuring should be looked at as been since the new millennia. Since becoming timized by the European Union agenda. Facing another viable option. This would allow the a member of the European Union and adopt- external pressures, it is evident that a new system amounts owed to remain the same, but the in- ing the euro, Italians exports have decreased. may be needed and Renzi offers the best chance terest rates would be lowered. These alternatives To compound the problem, Italy has little in- at solving this problem, but the EU’s strict eco- would ease relations within the Eurozone and centive to offer outside businesses, as it is one nomic relations hinder Renzi’s proposals. In or- expedite the recovery by allotting the Italians of the most expensive places in the world for der to sustain an Italian economic rebound, the more economic freedom. startups. Two other factors significantly bog European Union must strike a balance between Mr. Renzi’s zeal is sometimes mistaken for down the Italian economy. Among modern its public spending and banking regulations, as ulterior motives. He is simply trying to place countries, Italy has the lowest amount of work- well as Italy’s desired reforms. Italy in the best position for recovery and do ers with a university degree, and the country Italy is not all to blame for their economy. what is best for the Italian people, even though has one of the highest proportions of educated In 2011, the European Central Bank slashed it may upset Germany. Despite current policies, workers living abroad. Italy is not totally in- lending rates while Italy attempted to reduce Italy would only leave the euro under the worst nocent here. Small Italian businesses failed to debt. This led to a doubly worse recession, and case scenario. In the meantime, with looser fis- adapt to the ever-changing economy during the the Italian economy has not been in such poor cal rules, Italy can once again achieve economic euro boom and did not properly adapt with its shape since adopting the euro in 1999. This in- prosperity. Yet, the EU’s current restrictions are American and European counterparts when the cident, coupled with other political factors, has not allowing Italy to properly engage in eco- market shifted from manufacturing to services. led Prime Minister Renzi and other Italians to nomic reform. Recovery will only be achieved Since joining the European Union, the Italian believe that they are being grossly mistreated when Prime Minister Renzi and the rest of the economy has only grown 4%. Prime Minister by the European Union. While this belief is not European Union begin to see eye to eye. •

30 // EUROPE Germany Neo-Nazis in a World of Rising Xenophobia - Sindhu Kadhiresan

The opening line of the official homepage of …Germany must address the foundation of the German NPD reads, “The National Dem- ocratic Party (Nationaldemokratische Partei the problem, which has manifested from an Deutschlands, or NPD) is Germany’s oldest intense, deep-rooted, irrational fear of migrants and nationalist party since 1945 and one of the few an aversion to social and political progress.” ” patriotic organizations not yet banned by the government.” However, the fact that the Na- tional Democratic Party has been tolerated for The dark reality is that Germany’s past – more gration, and the political backlash caused by so long by the German government may be specifically the atrocities and political impli- events such as those in Cologne have involun- changing. In March 2016, Germany’s highest cations of Adolf Hitler’s rise to power dur- tarily bolstered support for ultra-conservative court, the Federal Constitutional Court, began ing the Weimar Republic – made extremely ideals and contributed to the rise in negative hearing a request to ban the NPD, which is de- clear to the postwar elites of Germany that to sentiment. However, this is not to say that Ger- scribed by many as a neo-Nazi fringe party. The protect their democracy, they must take steps mans are not taking steps to combat racist and case essentially argues that the far-right NPD against those who threaten it. So, the new Fed- right-wing populism. In February, thousands of is a threat to the country’s liberal democratic eral Republic of Germany redefined itself as counter-demonstrators formed a human chain order. However, as Constitutional court chief “wehrhafte,” meaning a militant democracy to block the path of the hundreds of neo-Nazis justice Andreas Vosskuhle stated, to ban any in which anti-democratic politics are illegal. gathered in Dresden to march in the annual political party is difficult and there are often However, because the NPD is a political party commemoration of the anniversary of the al- many obstacles; Germany has not banned a and not merely an anti-democratic group, only lied bombing of the city in 1945. Perhaps, with political party in almost 60 years. In order to the Federal Constitutional Court can ban it – continued support from the more moderate ban the party and all of its entities, the court and after failing to have the NPD banned in and left-wing German population, the Federal requires a supermajority vote of six out of eight 2001, the German Bundesrat is eager to push Constitution Court will find evidence and mo- judges, who are set to sit for three days before this case to a win. tivation to ban the NPD. issuing their verdict. The pending case aside, it A more significant question, perhaps, is why In short, banning the NPD is more a sym- is important to question what problem lies at now? The NPD party has had a presence in bolic gesture than anything else. To ban a party the heart of the matter. It is fair to say an “anti- Germany since 1964, when it was founded as whose “railing against migrants” is rooted in democratic, xenophobic, anti-Semitic, anti- a successor to the neo-fascist German Reich ethnic nationalism would show not only the constitutional party” poses an issue; however, Party, and the last attempt to ban the party German people and concerned governments does banning the party itself solve the problem was over ten years ago. So what pushed the worldwide, but more importantly other radical of a country with an underlying condition of Bundesrat over the edge? One possibility is the right-wing groups that Germany still adheres to xenophobia, racism, and a sense of nostalgia increase in NPD support as well as rising far- Wehrhafte and is willing to take action to crush for archaic ideals? Regardless of the answer, right violence. Germans are afraid. They are un- antiquated ideas that hinder progress. Amidst the German Bundesrat is intent on banning certain in which direction a radical right-wing claims of bias, a judge of the Federal Constitu- the party as a solution. leadership would take them, but the majority tion court, Peter Müller, has made clear to de- Germany’s Bundesrat, a legislative body sim- of Germans have no desire to find out. In the fense counsel that he believes the party’s defense ilar to the British House of Lords, represents past few years, the NPD has won a few seats strategy to be thin, and that the defense should all sixteen of Germany’s states, and believes in some states, which in itself is concerning to not anticipate a favorable outcome. they have indisputable evidence that proves German politicians. Another angle, however, Court decision aside, the fact of the mat- that the NPD is politically dangerous. It is es- is that Europe’s migrant crisis and subsequent ter is, is that a mere banning of a party cannot sentially attempting to prove that the NPD’s influx of migrants has heightened pre-existing automatically change the minds of those who platform of racism and violence is too similar xenophobic tendencies. Germany’s “Willkom- align with NPD ideals. Whether or not there is to Nazism, which has been outlawed in Ger- menskultur” (welcome culture) and outspoken a formal institution in place for them to show many. The Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz sentiments of support by German political elites their support is irrelevant. In order to truly (BfV), Germany’s domestic intelligence agency, (e.g. Angela Merkel) have attracted millions of curb the rise of anti-immigrant and archaical- believes that the NPD is built on racism and refugees and a sector of the German population ly-anchored political agendas, Germany must fear. However, the Party itself argues that the has turned to right-wing parties for support. address the foundation of the problem, which refugee crisis in Europe has merely brought to Although much of the support is going to the has manifested from an intense, deep-rooted, light fears in the Germany people that the NPD Alternative for Germany (AfG), the NPD is irrational fear of migrants and an aversion to addresses in its political stance. also growing, and with it, the rate of violent social and political progress. • But why is Germany taking such an active attacks against refugees and their homes. step towards banning the NPD altogether? The stresses put on the country by the mi-

EUROPE // 31 Why Switzerland Holds the Key to Reforming FIFA - Tyler D. Coady

n 2015, an American and Swiss probe into in the world of Rio de Janeiro high-rises and the dealings of the Federation Interna- Middle Eastern sheikdoms. I tionale de Football Association (FIFA) Thus, it is imperative for the Swiss FDJP to leadership revealed a world of corruption en- work closely with the US Justice Department, tailing bribes, favorable television contracts, whose legal reach is far more extensive than that and a tainted World Cup host bidding process. of the FDJP. According to The Times, “US law While the United States was right to use its allows for…prosecution of foreign nationals… legal powers to go after FIFA bigwigs, its abil- [because] the activity affected interstate and for- ity to enact structural change is limited due eign commerce, and took place in New York.” to FIFA being based in Zurich, Switzerland. Former FIFA leader Sepp Blatter poses With the US policing FIFA’s international in- Switzerland is in the best position to reshape for the cameras. WIKIMEDIA COMMONS vestments and sponsorship deals, Switzerland FIFA into a respectable institution. The Swiss will be able to ensure financial transparency and Parliament and Federal Department of Justice Graduate School of Public Administration, en- shrewd spending at FIFA headquarters. Keep- and Police (FDJP) should place FIFA under sures ISOs “enjoy favorable conditions for the ing FIFA’s expenditures under check will en- independent supervision, tighten laws that gov- exercise of their activities.” As a non-profit with sure that corruption and bribery are less likely, ern international sports organizations (ISOs), revenue of more than $5 billion from 2011 to decrease lavish spending on employee salaries revoke FIFA’s status as a nonprofit, and subject 2014 and cash reserves of $1.5 billion, FIFA en- and expenses, and subject sponsorship and tele- it to more financial oversight. Former FIFA joys the fruits of being an ISO in Switzerland vision deals to thorough examination. president Sepp Blatter allowed a culture of reci- without facing the stricter legal statutes of an While Rebecca Ruiz of The Times reported procity and excess to penetrate all corners of intergovernmental organization. that the Swiss do not want to be seen “as pup- soccer governance. FIFA, even with new lead- However, because of FIFA’s abuses, a gen- pets of the United States,” the real obstacle to ership, still fails to acknowledge its structural eral shift in tone amongst Swiss leaders signals FIFA reform lies in the cries of nationalism faults. The wide-ranging powers of executive a growing willingness to clamp down on ISOs. and American imperialism that are sure to be members, the secretive nature of World Cup With the passage of the so-called “Lex FIFA” emanate from South America, Africa, and the bidding processes, and the outsized power of legislation, sport leaders in Switzerland are now Middle East. Leaders of these regions’ football regional confederation leaders are problems able to be prosecuted for corruption. While associations have amassed a substantial amount that need to be fixed. this is a welcome development, the inherent of power within FIFA and will be reluctant to Yet, as this culture of back-room negotia- problem is that FIFA is a nonprofit, making it see that thoroughly challenged by the United tions has festered, it becomes even more appar- a financially burgeoning enterprise operating States and Switzerland. The FIFA Congress op- ent that the leaders of FIFA are not the ones to under opaque circumstances. As a nonprofit, erates under a one-nation, one-vote system that provide sound remedies. According to The New it only has to meet the basic requirements that has allowed soccer’s power base to grow be- York Times’ Sam Borden, governance experts the Swiss Civil Code requires. Many aspects of yond the historical confines of Europe. While recommend adding independent members to the Civil Code are not legally binding, thus al- this has made world soccer more democratic in the executive committee. FIFA leaders are op- lowing ISOs to operate with a great deal of au- some respects, it has also seen the organization posed to the idea because their current influence tonomy. Designating FIFA as a business would amass an inordinate amount of money, influ- over financial and governing matters would be break with the laissez faire approach of the Swiss ence, and subsequent falling of prey to cor- curtailed. However, Swiss authorities should Government toward ISOs and it would be a sig- ruption, bribery, and greed. Thus, Switzerland not bow down. They must take that proposal nificant step in holding soccer’s governing body must scrutinize FIFA finances, treat it like a one step further and place FIFA under group more accountable. The reformation of FIFA corporation, work with the United States, and supervision. Swiss law allows for financial insti- cannot be achieved unless its finances and its place it under independent supervision. Only tutions and conglomerates to be under govern- leaders are subjected to increased transparency. then will FIFA be able to credibly represent the mental oversight. Placing FIFA under similar As part of Switzerland’s vow to get tough on beautiful game. • scrutiny is a necessary step for Switzerland to ISOs, the Swiss Parliament passed a law in De- take as FIFA becomes less a point of pride and cember 2014 that “allows more scrutiny of bank more an unwanted embarrassment. For this to accounts held by governing bodies and their happen, FIFA’s status as a nonprofit needs to leaders,” according to The Guardian. However, be challenged and revoked. the law only allows authorities greater oversight Switzerland is the international sports gov- over bank accounts and financial assets held ernance capital of the world. Its reputation as a in Switzerland. With 72 percent of FIFA ex- cozy place to be an ISO was reaffirmed in 2011 penditures on “direct investment in football,” with a new law that, according to the Swiss so much of its business will still be conducted

32 // EUROPE Evaluating New Democracies Quick to Judge and Criticize - Olivia Singer

ometimes referred to as “the phoenix,” alism and liberal reformers does not automatically deem Poland has astoundingly risen from the may not be very surprising, it a failure. Anna Seleny, a pro- S ashes of the aftermath of World War II the question remains whether fessor of International Politics with impressive economic success, high literacy the PiS is actually likely to put at Tufts University, investi- rates from its mass education system, and sus- an end to Polish democracy. gates the democratization of tainable democratic reforms. Although Poland Marek Magieroski, a Eastern European countries, has enjoyed a booming economy paired with spokesman for President An- including Poland; she argues increasing European integration over the last 25 drzej Duda, explains that the that scholars often disagree on years, its successes and European Union mem- party is facing difficult chal- how to measure “democratic bership do not change the fact that it is still a lenges and is attempting to Photo of the first Parliamentary consolidation” of the Eastern new democracy in comparison to its Western make reforms in the best in- meeting with PiS majority. European countries that tran- WIKIMEDIA COMMONS European counterparts. Poland is indeed a fasci- terest of the citizens. He states: sitioned in the 1970s and 80s nating case study, challenging many of the tradi- “our country is now run by from authoritarian regimes to tional political models of international relations politicians accountable to Polish voters, not democracies. Furthermore, she argues, many that have dominated academic discourse post- to German, British, or French.” Members of theoretical approaches and rationalities applied WWII. Poland’s economic success in the early the party assert that unlike previous govern- to these countries result in political analysis that 2000s made it an attractive candidate for acces- ments, the PiS is listening to the citizenry and is “shallow, incomplete, or simply misinformed.” sion to the EU, but the controversial legislation is putting the Polish first, and the EU second. Thus, when interpreting whether the democratic passed in December 2015 by the majority Law President Duda wrote in his article published trajectory of Poland should be deemed a failure and Justice Party (PiS) has prompted the EU to in the Financial Times that Poland is pro-Eu- or not, alternative rationalities beyond the tradi- rethink its decision, and has resulted in continu- ropean and wants to play a more active role; tional institutions and structures may be more ous protest in the nation’s capital. Poland’s de- however, the Polish government does question fittingly applied. Democracies can vary in terms mocratization and modernizations efforts merit the Union’s effectiveness, especially in relation of quality, and measuring states without making appraisal, but when evaluating the health of the to the refugee crisis and protecting European adjustments for historical contexts can lead to state’s democracy, it should not be held to the countries from foreign terrorism. On this note, erroneous conclusions. For instance, using Sele- same criteria as its EU member counterparts. the critics should not discount that the party is ny’s analysis, there are “high-grade democracies” Since the ascension of PiS to power, which is supported by a large population of the Polish that should be held to a different standard than notoriously Eurosceptic, Western governments citizenry, believing that the party has the means those that have more recently entered the period and pundits have questioned Poland’s demo- to resolve the issues that are of the most con- of transition. Seleny does put forth, however, a cratic legitimacy and EU membership. They fear cern to Polish citizens: the immigration crisis, set of minimum requirements for a state to be that Poland’s democracy is in danger due to the terrorism, and creating more jobs via economic classified as a “democracy,” and Poland meets conservative majority in Parliament, and claim interventionism policies. these requirements comfortably. that the legislative acts of the Law and Justice To many, the legislative changes drafted and Democracies of all sorts often confront chal- Party disrespect the European Union’s rule of put forth on December 30, 2015 recall a Bolshe- lenges, and indeed this is the case in Poland as law. The election and the sweeping victory by vik-style of governance, providing the central PiS seeks to represent the majority while legiti- the Law and Justice government is a classic test government the executive power to appoint and mizing its agenda. In evaluating the status of the of Poland’s democracy; the results of the 2015 discharge public figures of their positions. News wide and varied forms of democracy, different election present a trend of conservativism that outlets and EU politicians have claimed the leg- cultural contexts and histories must be integrat- many European countries are currently facing islative changes to be an “assault on democracy;” ed, as old political rationalities evidently may in an attempt to garner a sense of nationalism. they appear quick to judge Poland’s political and continue to structure existing political agendas. Polish voters elected the PiS last December economic progress, condemning the state as “a Poland is not on a ruinous path as some are con- with the first parliamentary majority since Po- failing democracy.” However, given the national vinced. Not entirely different from some parties land’s establishment as a democracy. Shortly support for PiS and the historical context of the in Western Europe, the party’s conservativism after winning the election, the party changed state’s governmental transition, the perspective and state control of institutions may indeed test the constitution to allow the PiS to pack the and criteria used to evaluate the political acts the quality of democracy, but does not threaten Constitutional Court and take state control of of the Polish government – the metrics used its existence. In light of the fact that protest suc- public broadcasting services on both radio and to measure quality of democracy – should be cessfully toppled the old regime and the vocal television channels. According to one survey, revisited. Indeed, the conceptualization of Po- existence an everlasting faction that will not about 55 percent of Polish nationals therefore land’s political structure is more complicated condone the managing government’s legislation, expressed fear that democracy is under threat. than has been reported, and Poland’s inabil- exercising democratic rights are not endangered Although the split between traditional nation- ity to fall under the EU model of democracy in Poland; at least not yet. •

EUROPE // 33 Ukraine’s Continuing Battle

- Matt Rosenthal

estern media relishes the oppor- ignore the human rights abuses against pro- sia. Without confidence in the government to tunity to cover Russia’s various testers during the revolution and the deep ties tackle the demands of its citizens, Ukrainians W military involvements. Outlets Ukrainian oligarchs (including Poroshenko) will consistently look to the East as a source of heavily reported on Ukraine’s Maidan revolu- have to the political system. Oligarchs are rou- security and stability. The culture of corruption, tion and then Russia’s subsequent annexation tinely favored in political appointments and though, is deeply rooted in Ukrainian politics. of Crimea and shadow-war in eastern Ukraine. economic partnerships that favor their busi- In order for this cycle to end, the legislature Now their attention has shifted to Russia’s op- ness interests. As Kuzio explains, federal pros- must forbid the President from appointing the erations in Syria against the Islamic State and ecutors have not successfully prosecuted any prosecutors that then investigate himself and the rebels fighting President Bashar al-Assad’s member of the “ruling elite” in 25 years, and other ruling elite. Whether through a nomina- regime. With this shift in attention, the focus Poroshenko has changed nothing. As a result tion process or independent selection, anti-cor- on Ukraine has waned. Yet, the war and the of this failure, Aivaras Abromavicius, Ukraine’s ruption officials must not answer to the leaders reform process in Ukraine rages on. Unfortu- economy minister, resigned while citing the that they are tasked with prosecuting. nately, Ukrainian political reforms and military government’s ambivalence toward corruption The most effective method to fight Russia operations have not progressed well in the past that was reminiscent of President Yanukovych. might be to inhibit Russian influence from year. The government must still genuinely ad- Efforts to resist Russian influence in East- spreading outside the Donbass. Russia should dress the corruption that prompted the Eu- ern Ukraine have also faced middling success. not be allowed to actively support separatist romaidan protests in order to create stability Ukraine and Russia have signed a series of cease- movements, but stopping Russia’s influence throughout the country that would limit the fires (most recently in September 2015), but from spreading to surrounding areas is more success of continued Russian advances. these agreements have done little to stop low- feasible and even more important to the sta- In the winter of 2014, Ukraine erupted into level fighting and threatening Russian military bilization of Ukraine. The separatists are too a revolution. People filled Independence Square exercises. Rebels operating with Russian sup- weak to overthrow the Ukrainian government protesting President Viktor Yanukovych’s cor- port and weaponry committed over 80 cease- without increased Russian support. The mili- ruption and decision to abandon increasing fire violations in just the first week of February, tary has only recently expressed a willingness economic ties to the EU in favor of Russia. and hidden landmines constantly threaten the to adapt its organizational and strategic poli- The demonstrations were not truly about Ya- agreement. Additionally, Russia regularly con- cies to become more effective, but such efforts nukovych’s economic decision, however, but ducts military exercises along their border with represent a radical shift in the resistant nature rather a culture of cronyism and corruption that Ukraine, posing a clear warning to Ukrainian of the Ukrainian military. These reforms, com- robbed the government of accountability and civilians and military. Along with their consoli- bined with Russia’s current focus on Syria, will civilians of dignity and justice. The demonstra- dation of power in Crimea – accompanied by a contain the separatists’ actions to low-level skir- tions resulted in Yanukovych’s ouster at the cost severe restriction of human rights to the native mishes that may violate ceasefire agreements, of many protesters’ lives and Russian interven- Tatar people – these military actions continu- but will not threaten the future of Ukraine. tion in the conflict. As the protests reached their ally threaten Ukrainian sovereignty. In reality, the failure of anti-corruption ef- violent peak, Russia annexed Crimea and tacitly Ukrainian rebels and others argue that Rus- forts pose a greater threat to Ukraine’s stability supported pro-Russian paramilitary groups in sia has a right to control eastern Ukraine. Be- than any Russian influence. Poroshenko – al- eastern Ukraine (known as Donbass). In the cause of historic ties to the region as well as the ready facing lower public ratings than Yanu- wake of the protests, Ukraine has had to com- Russian heritage of many residents in the Don- kovych – must implement meaningful reforms bat corruption on one hand and the threat of bass, Russia should be able to support rebels’ ef- to the justice system and interactions with the Russian annexation on the other. forts. However, this sentiment is not universal. oligarchs that do not pander to the West in or- Ukraine has sputtered in responding to both The eastern oblasts of Ukraine must vote for der to stave off another round of protests. The of these challenges. Political reforms seem to such a transition. If the majority of Ukraini- Ukrainian government will only be effective in have limited corruption throughout Ukrainian ans in these provinces really do reject Ukraine’s combatting Russian propaganda once it proves politics. The new president, Petro Poroshenko, anti-corruption initiatives and pivot to West- to its citizens that it can defend and promote has established a new National Anti-Corrup- ern Europe, a vote would confer that message. their desires. • tion Bureau with a strong prosecutor. He has While meddling and voter fraud is likely (as instituted some judicial reforms and remodeled eastern Ukraine has faced such concerns in the the police force. However, Ukrainian scholar past), both Russia and Ukraine would probably Taras Kuzio has argued that these efforts are just intervene, limiting how the vote is pushed. Ad- lip service. In reality, the people nominated to ditionally, independent, international verifica- operate these rehabilitated institutions are dis- tion could solve many concerns. regarding their popular mandates. President Addressing the corruption issues is a prereq- Poroshenko has appointed prosecutors that uisite to solving Ukraine’s conflict with Rus-

34 // EUROPE NATO Enlargement The West Continues Its Dangerous Policy of Encirclement - Andrew Beddow

wo years after the Euromaidan, the terests is “Munich-style” appeasement. West- strategic nuclear submarine bases” effectively East-West confrontation over Ukraine ern and Russian elites disagree on what con- turning “the Baltic Sea into a NATO lake”. T has continued unabated. Ukraine’s se- stitutes a logical security threat, and Western Russia is not brooding silently in the mean- curity situation has further deteriorated, spo- leaders point fingers at Russia while ignoring time. Prime Minister Dimitri Medvedev has radic fighting litters the Donbass with bodies, their own geopolitical failings. In the words of warned that, “Any expansion of NATO to and Europe is neither safer nor more prosper- Secretary of State John Kerry, “You just don’t in Sweden and Finland would upset the balance ous as a result. Yet, in spite of the West’s abject the twenty-first century behave in nineteenth- of power in Europe and force a Russian re- failure to deliver on the promises of democra- century fashion by invading another country sponse.” Yet, as with Montenegro, Georgia, and tization, some in the West see Ukraine as a vic- on completely trumped-up pretext.” Unfortu- Ukraine, this unequivocal statement of Russia’s tory for the liberal end of history that motivates nately, it would appear that Western nations vital national interests and intentions will likely European and American foreign policy. After are not held to this same standard. be ignored by Western policymakers, who give all, a key buffer state has been stripped from This inability to understand and thus coop- little thought to Russia’s security and see Rus- Russia’s sphere of influence and the Russian erate with Russia has led to a broad Western sia’s conflict with the West in terms of the heroic economy is in freefall. The standard morality effort to contain and destroy Russia as a great eastward struggle for liberal progress. Western play that accompanies this view is almost en- power. Most recently, in spite of Russia’s clear states fail to recognize how the distribution of tirely wrong, however, and likely to motivate protests, NATO has announced its acceptance power matters for declining powers, which is Western policies that will make Europe – and of Montenegro’s application to its military al- the underlying reality of this ideological con- the world – less safe, free, and prosperous. It liance, a move which Russia’s Foreign Ministry flict. Brussels’ statesmen must not ignore Rus- is now accepted that the Ukrainian coup, pre- characterizes as “an openly confrontational step sia’s interests in this matter. cipitated by a longstanding policy of eastward fraught with additional destabilizing conse- What exactly will come of European secu- NATO and EU expansion, was supported by quences for the system of Euro-Atlantic security rity should the West continue on its course of the influence of Western efforts to ‘promote [that] cannot but result in retaliatory actions marginalizing Russia is uncertain, but what is democracy’ in Eastern Europe. Western pow- […] from the Russian side.” This warning, how- clear is that the idealist fantasy of a Russia trans- ers have maintained this policy for two decades ever, has fallen on deaf ears, as Western insti- formed into a liberal, free market democracy in spite of persistent, vociferous and justified tutions are now considering the possibility of will not come about any time soon. If the West’s protests by the Russian Federation that such a admitting Serbia to the European Union. Most experiments in Iraq, Libya, and Ukraine have policy would endanger Russia’s vital security worryingly, Sweden has indicated an interest in proven anything, it is that brute force cannot interests. Predictably, Russia did not tolerate a admission to the Trans-Atlantic alliance as well. build the “shining city on the hill” that they Western-aligned state on its border – a poten- While Sweden’s admission to NATO would desire. Russia is not simply yet another tin-pot, tial military threat located a mere two hundred constitute yet another provocative statement of petro-fueled dictatorship for the West to ruin miles from Moscow – and acted decisively to ‘Transatlantic unanimity’ against Russian inter- and forget, and, eventually, the Federation will challenge this encroachment. Though they will ests, Sweden’s longstanding military coopera- be sure to remind its Western neighbors of this likely choose to continue on their expansion- tion with NATO means that such an expansion fact. The West has an interest in a stable and ist policies, Western nations would be wise to of the alliance would not drastically disturb secure Russia, capable of maintaining a steady heed Russia’s warnings and respect its national the precarious balance of power in northeast- balance of power and participating, based on security interests. ern Europe. However, Sweden has maintained mutual benefit, in the preservation of a global The West, for its part, has not learned from consistently that its accession to NATO status order. What the West seems eager to create, the unmitigated failure of the Ukrainian gam- is contingent upon Finland’s simultaneous ad- however, is a Russia teetering between lash-out bit. Although a few prominent voices – John mission, an unacceptable transgression against and collapse, rightfully resentful of its mistreat- Mearsheimer and Henry Kissinger among them Russian security interests. Sweden and Finland ment at the hands of the Trans-Atlantic pow- – have called for a reconsideration of NATO’s constitute Russia’s northwestern buffer, a vi- ers. The West’s repertoire of policy responses expansionist policy, the vast majority of West- tal shield against the threat of NATO naval could lead to the alienation of a vital partner, ern political leaders, both in the US and Eu- forces to St. Petersburg. With their admission the retaliation of a great power, and eventu- rope, place blame for the crisis solely on the to NATO, Russia’s heart, having already lost ally the destabilization of the world’s largest shoulders of Vladimir Putin. As Western leaders its southern protection with Ukraine, will be nuclear state. • believe that the Washington-led Transatlantic exposed to the Trans-Atlantic powers. Such a order should not be perceived as anything other move, according to Jan Joel Anderson, Senior than benevolent, Putin’s resistance to the values Research Fellow at the Swedish Institute for In- of that order is seen as inexplicable and Hitler- ternational Affairs, “would represent a serious esque. On this view, any effort to understand geostrategic blow” for Russia that “would place or accommodate Russia’s genuine security in- NATO forces within arm’s length of Russia’s

EUROPE // 35 How Reformers in Iran Can Show the World They are the Real Deal - Daniel Karr

he early-stage implementation of the over 800,000 Afghan refugees to flee across its ghans to prioritize stability over skepticism of Iran nuclear agreement has reinvigo- border. It is therefore in both Western and Ira- Iran. According to research conducted by the T rated the debate over the deal’s long- nian interests for Iran to disrupt the drug trade Asia Foundation, Afghan optimism about the term effects. Critics of the agreement point to and combat the Taliban. future of their country is at an all-time low. the influx of $100 million that Iran will receive To effectively fight the drug trade and -de Additionally, the upcoming US withdrawal will from sanctions relief, while proponents suggest prive the Taliban of a key revenue source, Iran only exacerbate instability and may further em- that the deal will empower moderates in Iran must learn from past counter-narcotic strate- power the Taliban, which has recently made and encourage rapprochement between Iran gies that have been largely unsuccessful. NATO territorial gains. Afghanistan’s counter-narcotic and the West. If Iran’s pragmatists, including counter-narcotic efforts have primarily included strategy has largely relied on US military pres- President Rouhani and Foreign Minister Zar- two tactics: eradication of poppy plants at the ence and funding, and senior US officials have if, want to discredit opponents of the nuclear source of cultivation and interdiction of opi- raised concerns that as the US reduces its op- agreement and prove that reformist factions ates as they are transported in major quantities. erations, drug trafficking will only increase. in Iran can make progress, they should look Despite $7 billion in US funding for counter- The US withdrawal will also likely hurt the to their troubled, often-forgotten next-door narcotic initiatives since 2002, opium cultiva- Afghan economy, which has relied heavily on neighbor, Afghanistan. tion has increased, revealing that a potential US aid. As the economy slows, Afghan farm- Using the revenue from recent sanctions Iranian strategy must be different. Iran must in- ers will likely turn to growing poppy, and this relief, Iranian pragmatists should implement stead focus on strategies that dissuade Afghans will further boost the drug trade and provide a strategy to disrupt the narcotics trade and from cultivating poppy in the first place, which more revenue for the destabilizing Taliban in- Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan. Iran and the is 11 times more profitable than growing wheat surgency. These worrisome trends suggest that West have converging interests in weakening according to the UNODC. Consequently, the Afghans will put aside their differences with the Taliban and reducing the export of opiates Iranian effort must subsidize alternative indus- Iran in exchange for counter-narcotic assistance from Afghanistan, and a successful counter- tries and provide Afghans with work opportu- that will promote security and provide alterna- narcotic effort would demonstrate Iran’s ability nities that are as lucrative as cultivating poppy. tive work opportunities for Afghans. to work alongside the West. It is true that simply subsidizing alternative Iran has a history of helping Afghanistan Iranian and Western interests converge in industries is not a sufficient guarantee that the in times of instability and crisis. During the reducing the export of opiates from Afghani- new areas of employment will be as profitable rise of the Taliban in the 1990s, Iran provided stan, which would promote greater stability in as growing poppy. Therefore, Iran must con- aid to the Northern Alliance to fight against the region. Afghanistan is the world’s largest vince Afghans that there are other non-mon- the cruelty of Taliban rule. After the fall of the poppy cultivator and, as of 2014, the area un- etary costs to growing poppy, such as the fact Taliban, the Northern Alliance was skeptical of der poppy cultivation expanded for the third that opium production is contrary to the teach- a Karzai-led government, but the Iranian envoy straight year according to the UN Office on ings of Islam. According to a UNODC survey, to Afghanistan at the time, Javad Zarif, who Drugs and Crime (UNODC). Not only is Iran among Afghan farmers who have never grown is now Iran’s Foreign Minister, persuaded the a major transit hub of opiates exported from poppy, the most common explanation for not Northern Alliance to accept Karzai’s rule. Zarif Afghanistan, but narcotics transited through doing so is that cultivating poppy conflicts with helped to preserve national unity in Afghani- Iran also wreak havoc on its own population. Islam’s values. This trend suggests that a pub- stan, and it is time for him to step up again. The Institute for the Study of War explains that lic education campaign that aims to convince He must use the revenue from sanctions relief 3 million Iranians are opiate abusers, and the farmers that growing opiates is against Islam, wisely and fight the narcotics trade to help sta- country suffers from the highest opiate abuse coupled with robust alternative livelihood pro- bilize Afghanistan. If implemented successfully, rate worldwide. grams, could reduce poppy cultivation in Af- this will show the Iranian people, the country’s The drug trade is intrinsically bad for Ira- ghanistan and demonstrate Iranian reformists’ hardliners, and the West that the nuclear deal nian internal interests, but it also poses a sec- ability to work productively alongside the West. was not just a fluke and that reformers in Iran ond problem for Iran because it helps fuel the Iranian-Afghan relations have been strained have the will and the political strength to imple- Taliban insurgency. According to the Congres- recently, and this could potentially jeopardize ment a foreign policy that solves problems and sional Research Service, the Taliban receives the feasibility of an Iranian-lead counter-nar- contributes to the greater good. • between $100 and $150 million annually from cotic plan. Iran and Afghanistan have clashed trafficking opiates, and as the Taliban continues over refugee issues, water disputes, and many to make critical gains in Afghanistan’s poppy- Sunni Pashtuns in Afghanistan look to Paki- rich provinces of Helmand and Kandahar, this stan and Saudi Arabia for leadership and op- number is likely to remain high. Iran would pose a strong Iranian presence in their country. prefer to weaken the Taliban insurgency because However, the increasingly deteriorating security Afghan instability has burdened Iran, causing environment in Afghanistan should compel Af-

36 // MIDDLE EAST The Time Has Not Come Why Iraq’s Kurdistan is Not Ready for Independence - Ali Al Momar

ince 1991, three Kurdish-majority prov- Considering the state of the economy, the inces in Northern Iraq have been au- KRG’s human rights record, and its democratic S tonomous. The autonomy came after de- cades of courageous fighting by Kurdish forces institutions, independence is not what is best for the against successive repressive regimes that ruled Iraqi Kurdistan.” from Baghdad. The last of these regimes, led by the Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party, pursued a policy of ‘Arabization’ that involved the kill- between the KDP and PUK expanded into a for independence. Although considered attrac- ing and uprooting of hundreds of thousands of 3-year civil war that left an imprint still visible tive for foreign investment because of a rela- non-Arabs in the northern part of the country. on Kurdish politics today. tively stable security situation, the economy is Following the fall of the Ba’athist government, Masoud Barzani, who has been president overly dependent on oil, has a bloated public the Iraq Constitution recognized the autono- since 2005, has overstayed his term limit. When sector, and is marred by corruption. Further- my of Iraqi Kurdistan when it was ratified in his second term came to an end in 2015, the more, the current dip in oil prices has made it 2005. However, the relationship between the PUK along with the Gorran (Change) party, difficult for the KRG to pay its employees and Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) and the the Kurdistan Islamic League (KIL), and the Peshmerga forces for many months now. Iraqi central government is shaky. They disagree Kurdistan Islamic Union (KIU) called for the Many Kurds, like many Iraqis, are frustrated on major issues including the status of areas president to resign and a new one to be cho- with how Iraqi politics are conducted. Corrup- that both governments claim should be under sen by parliament. Barzani and the KDP have tion and incompetence, sectarian and ethnic their own authority, the KRG’s exporting of refused and he remains president. This case differences, in addition to pro-Iran and pro- oil without central government oversight, and reflects the polarization and weakness of the Saudi Arabia sentiments define political dis- the Kurdish Peshmerga operating outside of checks and balances Iraqi Kurdistan’s politi- course. Kurds, however, are well-positioned the scope of the Iraqi army. cal process. to push for real reforms as they hold consider- In the summer of 2014, the KRG’s president, Secondly, the human rights record of the able power within the government in Baghdad. Masoud Barzani, called for a referendum on in- KRG makes it unready for independence. In Hoshyar Zebari, a KDP’s spokesperson in pre- dependence after he expressed frustration with 2011, anti-corruption protests were held in Iraqi 2003 Iraq, was the foreign affairs minister from what he considered the central government’s Kurdistan. The protests demanded an end to 2003 to 2014, and has been finance minister lack of seriousness about solving these issues. the entrenched patronage system that the KDP since late 2014. Former prime minister of the The referendum did not go ahead as Kurdistan’s and PUK sponsor. Kurdish security forces re- KRG, Fuad Masum, succeeded Jalal Talabani to leaders said that fighting ISIL should be the sponded by opening fire and detaining pro- be President of Iraq. Kurdish parties hold over top priority. However, in February 2016, Bar- testers. Moreover, the KRG did not push for 50 seats in the 328-seat national parliament, zani repeated the call for another referendum any of the major reforms that the protesters a number that could be increased if Kurdish on independence. Considering the state of the demanded. parties expand their appeal to non-Kurd con- economy, the KRG’s human rights record, and There are also worries about the rights of stituencies. Moreover, the KRG-administered its democratic institutions, independence is not Turkmen, Arabs, Assyrians, Yazidis, and other provinces receive 17 percent of the national what is best for Iraqi Kurdistan. minority groups within areas ruled by the KRG. budget. At the same time, the KRG collects its Firstly, Kurdish politics are defined by a In late 2014, KRG forces abandoned the mainly own customs at border crossings and Kurdish, quasi-dynastic rule. Masoud Barzani’s son, Yazidi city of Sinjar as ISIL took over. The KRG along with Arabic, is an official language of Iraq. Masrour, is the head of the intelligence servic- and its forces did not do enough to assist resi- An independent Iraqi Kurdistan today es and his nephew, Nechirvan Barzani, is the dents who were stranded on Mount Sinjar. It means a Kurdistan landlocked and unable to prime minister of the KRG. Qubad Talabani, was the Syrian Kurdish forces of the People’s pay its civil servants and soldiers because of cor- the deputy prime minister, is the son of Jalal Protection Units (YPG) that provided help. In ruption and low oil prices. It means a Kurdistan Talabani, a leading politician in Kurdistan. The late 2015, the KRG finally decided to launch where minority rights are not respected, and a Barzanis lead the Kurdistan Democratic Party an offensive to retake Sinjar. In the process, government dominated by dynastic politicians (KDP), while the Talabani family leads the Pa- Kurdish fighters evicted dozens of Arab fami- who are not afraid to use force against opposi- triotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). The two lies living in the city. In the mainly Turkmen tion protests. An autonomous Kurdistan within families and parties have dominated Iraqi Kurd- city of Tuz Khurmatu, Kurdish forces, along a federal Iraq that pushes for pluralism is bet- istan’s politics since the 1970s. The two parties’ with Turkmen militias, were responsible for ter for Iraqi Kurds than an independent, but support is also defined by regionalism; as the human rights violations against civilians as they unstable and repressive Kurdistan. • KDP dominates political life in the provinces removed ISIL forces from the area. of Dohuk and Erbil, the PUK dominates in In addition to the political and human the province of Sulaymaniyah. In 1994, clashes rights woes, Kurdistan’s economy is not ready

MIDDLE EAST // 37 Fifty Shades of Grey

- Ryan Strong

istening to the rhetoric this American …binaries simply reinforce false notions of the political season, one might assume that US’ role in the world and blind the public to the L ISIS cells are operating within every US city, simply a no-fly zone would solve the fact that the difference between actors in the Middle Syrian crisis, and the Iran Deal was the worst East is not simply black and white.” thing to happen to this country because now a nuclear holocaust is impending. Certainly, that was hyperbole is based off a US was fighting to eliminate them. The reason is in the process of lifting sanctions against Iran few sound bites, but Islamophobia – and Irano- the United States invaded Afghanistan was be- and billions of dollars of foreign direct invest- phobia – is pervasive throughout American so- cause of the September 11th attacks, yet 15 of the ment are flowing into the country. However, ciety. Even Hillary Clinton has boasted that one 19 plane hijackers were Saudi Arabian. US sanctions against Iran for its status as a state of her proudest accomplishments was making State sponsorship or collaboration with ter- sponsor of terrorism remain in place. Due to enemies with “the Iranians.” It plays into the rorist groups and human rights abuses extends this, American firms and individuals cannot le- American public’s perceptions of Iran and its beyond Saudi Arabia. Pakistan provided signifi- gally sell to or operate in Iran. Moving forward, mischaracterized government. American politi- cant assistance to the Taliban and al-Qaeda, as it makes the most political and economic sense cal rhetoric lends itself to speaking in binaries well as having served as an indoctrination and to remove Iran from this list. – good vs. bad, us vs. them, etc. However, bi- training ground for these radical groups. Tur- The 20th century is over – successful US naries simply reinforce false notions of the US’ key was previously found to be in direct contact foreign policy can no longer revolve around role in the world and blind the public to the with ranking ISIS officials and has committed policing the world. Continued unilateral action fact that the difference between actors in the human rights violations against its Kurdish ci- against Iran will not work as Iran has and will Middle East is not simply black and white – it vilians. Furthermore, Israel has been accused of continue to abide by the nuclear agreement. So is varying shades of grey. As every country op- supporting Jundallah and MEK, both of which as Iran chooses to receive payment for oil in Eu- erates in this ‘grey’ zone, it makes no sense to are (or were formerly) US-designated terrorist ros, sign a $600 billion trade deal with China, label Iran as a state sponsor of terrorism when it groups, as well as drawing criticism from the buy hundreds of planes from the European is surrounded by far darker countries. It follows United Nations Human Rights Council for its Airbus instead of the American Boeing, and that building upon the pivot to Iran started continued blockade of the Gaza Strip. invite European firms to invest in the country, by President Obama, and away from the Gulf There is no denying that Iran-backed Hez- American firms are the only group that is hurt States, would serve well the United States’ short bollah in Lebanon and President Assad in Syria by the continued sanctions on Iran. and long-term interests in the region, as well previously committed terroristic activities and Removing Iran from the list of state spon- as work towards eradicating some of the dark- human rights abuses, or that Iran is purportedly sors of terrorism can initiate economic diplo- est spots on the region, namely radical Salafi linked to the Khobar Towers terrorist attack, macy between the two countries. Although cer- jihadist terrorist groups. but Salafi jihadist groups commit atrocities on tain hardliners in Iran may be against American Currently, one of America’s strongest rela- a far greater scale and threaten regional stabil- policies in the region, the country’s leadership tionships in the region is with Saudi Arabia. ity. Moreover, both Hezbollah and Assad have has said it would more than welcome American Historically, Saudi Arabia has pumped oil for political legitimacy in their respective countries. companies and investment. With a population the West and the US has sold weapons in re- Therefore, it is senseless to label Iran as the big- of nearly 80 million and an economy projected turn. Yet with the rise of fracking and the fact gest state sponsor of terrorism in the world, as to grow up to 8 percent for the next five years, that Saudi Arabia is attempting to push US oil it only further perpetuates the false binary that or 47 percent in total, the Iranian market is a companies out of the market through over-sup- it is one of the few ‘bad’ players in the region. huge missed opportunity for American firms. plying, it appears this economic relationship has The United States’ list of state supporters of Moreover, cultivating a more amicable relation- soured. Still, however, the US provides Saudi terrorism has never reflected the truth either, ship with Iran could lead to coordination and Arabia with billions of weapons sales each year. only American regional ambitions. Ronald Rea- cooperation on eradicating these radical Salafi These purchases are not necessarily used gan removed Iraq from the list in 1982 so Ameri- jihadist terror groups, namely ISIS, which have for defensive purposes, as Saudi Arabia faces can arms manufacturers could sell weapons (as made devastating attacks on US soil and taken a minimal threat of attack. Elements of Saudi well as the components for chemical warfare) to American lives. • leadership have been linked to weapon sales to support Saddam Hussein in the Iran-Iraq War. various Salafi jihadist terrorist groups across the George H.W. Bush then added the country Middle East and Central Asia. Some of these back on after it invaded Kuwait. notable groups include al-Qaeda, al-Nusra, and The United States and Iran have made posi- ISIS. Moreover, Saudi Arabia (and Pakistan) as- tive strides in the last few years thanks to Presi- sisted the Taliban in Afghanistan, even as the dent Rouhani and President Obama. The world

38 // MIDDLE EAST A Two Front Battle Women’s Rights and Reforms in Saudi Arabia - Misba Saleem

or the first time this past December, Saudi women’s campaigns prioritize reforms in women were permitted to vote and run access to jobs, male guardianship laws, ability F for office in Saudi Arabia’s municipal council elections. 978 women and 5,938 men to run entrepreneurial businesses independently, and vied for 2,100 seats. In the end, 20 women were domestic rights...” elected, a modest yet surprising result given the impediments to voter registration efforts and the barriers female contenders faced in cam- ter-reform campaigns, such as “My Guardian of misunderstanding religious and cultural fac- paigning. Yet, while the West may view this Knows What’s Best For Me” have collected over tors. Many Saudi women value modesty, or as substantial progress, most women within 5,400 signatures, arguing that the law promotes even feel it empowers them in the workplace.! Saudi Arabia actually desire changes on sys- chivalry, compassion, and caretaking among In terms of the restriction on driving, wom- tematic issues, such as access to work oppor- men. Additionally, the campaign criticizes the en’s campaigns prioritize reforms in access to tunities and domestic issues like the guardian- mixing of men and women as an inappropriate jobs, male guardianship laws, ability to run ship laws. Despite a clear agenda, campaigns influence of Western culture.! entrepreneurial businesses independently, and for reform have contended with a difference Despite the contention over male guard- domestic rights before even considering the in internal and external pressures. Internally, ianship, most women agree on the need for right to drive, which has become to many an there is a rift between conservative women who increased access to work opportunities. Accord- over politicized sideshow to the real issues. As treasure the uniqueness of their traditional cul- ing to statistics from the Saudi Ministry of Jus- of late, driving has become less of an inconve- ture, and more liberal women who seek to in- tice in 2011, 40 percent of divorces initiated by nience and cost due to the popularity of apps troduce new rights from social convention, women were a result of husbands asking their like Uber and Careem. In fact, Uber is so popu- thereby introducing new behaviors. Externally, wives to leave their jobs. Today, economic con- lar among women that they make up 70 percent international organizations and activists have cerns have shifted many male attitudes towards of the customer base, and the company aims prescribed Western models of rights to evalu- female employment, as a second source of in- to expand trips by 50 to 60 percent in 2016, ate Saudi women, and have disproportionately come is often welcome. Despite Saudi women’s according to Bloomberg.! focused on women not having the right to drive desire to work and their qualifications (60 per- In 2013, King Abdullah decreed a or dress restrictions, which are smaller issues cent of university graduates in Saudi Arabia are quota of 20 percent women’s member- by Saudi women’s standards. The systematic women and women hold more advanced de- ship in the Shura Council, appointing rights and changes sought by reform campaigns grees than men according to the World Policy 30 women to the formal advisory body will be implemented when the international Journal), women’s access to work opportunities that proposes laws for approval by the conversation shifts from what is best for Saudi still trail their male counterparts’. According to King. In late 2015, the Interior Minis- women, to what Saudi women determine is a 2015 Jadwa try began to issue family ID cards to best for themselves.! Investment report, women’s unemployment divorced women and widows, allowing Internally, the main issue of contention is stands at 33 percent, versus 6 percent for men. women to register children for school, the male guardianship law, which requires a This difference is largely due to limited areas of have access to records, give clearance for related male, be it a father, a brother, or even a “suitable” work for women, such as medicine, medical procedures, and manage em- son, to accompany a woman in public. Women education, and social work. As of 2005, women ployment procedures without approval must also seek permission to obtain a passport, were able to study law, but could not apply for from a male guardian or court. Both attend college, or marry. Most places of work licenses to practice until 2013, a change that of these reforms, either largely unrec- have separate office spaces for men and women was prompted by petition of 3,000 female law ognized or dwarfed by continual con- (though gender-mixed workplaces also exist). graduates presented to King Abdullah in 2012.! demnation for the driving restrictions, Restaurants have separate lines and seating areas Despite the focus of Saudi women’s cam- typify a sort of selective recognition by for single men and for families. At the super- paigns for rights and reforms, their representa- the West. It is the failure of the West to market, men and women cashiers are separated. tion in international media fosters an image of recognize progress on Saudi women’s Gender separation also extends to the ability to Saudi women as voiceless, somehow imposing own terms that undermines progress represent oneself in the courts, the restriction subservience upon themselves. In reality, the from the outside. Until the international on women to drive, and until recently, access case is very much the opposite; Saudi women dialogue shifts from evaluating what is to ID cards necessary for handling family affairs have their own needs, values, and priorities. best for Saudi women and prescribing and travel. Women, especially those who have International organizations and activists have Western models, campaigns for reforms been forced to quit work by a guardian or who placed disproportionate attention on dress re- and systematic change will continue to have lost custody of their children after divorce, quirements and the restriction on women to fight a two front battle. •! have criticized the law as problematic. Coun- drive. This misplaced attention comes at a cost

MIDDLE EAST // 39 Oman, The Mediator, and its Role in Yemen

- Brendan Failla

hile most coverage of the Iran nuclear deal Wfocused on the meet- ings in Geneva and Vienna be- tween Iran and the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the Se- curity Council plus Germany), it has been reported that Oman served as a mediator between the US and Iran and ensured early progress in the nuclear talks. As early as 2012, it is purported that American and Iranian offi- cials held bilateral meetings in Muscat before hammering out an interim nuclear agreement in 2013. Oman’s contribution con- structed the foundation for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Ac- tion’s (JCPOA) eventual success. This story is not rare for Oman as it has often acted as a media- tor in the region while pursuing diplomatic relations with all rel- U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry meets with Sultan of Oman Qaboos bin Said Al Said in Muscat, Oman, evant actors. Oman’s Sultan Qa- on May 21, 2013. WIKIMEDIA COMMONS! boos Bin Said al-Said has effec- tively created a unique balance unseen in tions. This is not the first time Oman ex- built a “diplomatic bridge” between the other Arab nations, possessing the ability ercised its policy independence in the Arab West, its Sunni allies, and Iran. to cooperate and maintain contacts with world. For instance, in 1979 when the Arab Oman has utilized its independence and Saudi Arabia, Iran, and major Western na- world cut ties with Egypt over its peace neutrality to conserve its foreign policy and tions like the US and the UK. It exercises treaty with Israel, Oman did not follow suit both its domestic and foreign interests. a foreign policy largely independent from suit. Oman also refused to back Iraq dur- When speaking about Oman’s policy on its heavyweight neighbor, Saudi Arabia, ing the Iran-Iraq War and instead hosted Yemen, Omani Foreign Minister Yusuf bin while simultaneously strengthening bilat- ceasefire talks between Baghdad and Teh- Alawi asserted that “Oman is a nation of eral relations with Iran that date back to ran. More recently in 2014, Oman did not peace” and it will sustain its policy of sup- the 1970s. Oman, with its Ibadi Muslim recall its ambassador from Qatar as Sau- porting peace initiatives. He emphasizes identity, also lies outside ideological strug- di Arabia, Bahrain, and the United Arab that Oman’s absence from military opera- gles between Sunni and Shia powers. It is Emirates did. Additionally, Oman avoid- tions in Yemen is central to its approach: evident that future UN-sponsored Yemen ed downgrading ties with Iran following “We cannot work on peace efforts at the peace talks should incorporate Oman’s dip- the attack on a Saudi embassy in Tehran same time we would be part of a military lomatic prowess and close connections earlier this year. Oman’s refusal to partici- campaign.” Accordingly, Oman has already with multiple nations often at odds with pate in Saudi’s “Operation Decisive Storm” served as an intermediary in consultations each other. campaign in Yemen not only preserved its between parties on the Yemeni conflict, When Saudi Arabia managed to reel in long-standing neutrality, but also made it and as a facilitator for previous contact support from traditional Gulf Coopera- the only Gulf Arab monarchy that Houthi between US officials and Houthis. Media tion Council (GCC) and Arab League al- representatives might trust. Diana Alghoul, reports note that in early March of this lies for its coalition against Houthi rebels of the Middle East Monitor, argues that year, Iranian-backed Houthi rebels sent and former Yemeni President Saleh loyal- Oman’s non-intervention in Yemen al- a delegation to Riyadh to meet with Sau- ists, Oman did not partake. The Sultanate lows it to effectively hold a “doubled-edged di officials at the urging of Oman. Mo- became the only GCC and Arab League sword” in the Yemen conflict. The Atlantic hammad Abdel-Salam, who serves as the member not to join the Saudi-led opera- Council agrees that Oman has effectively Houthis’ main spokesman and advisor to

40 // MIDDLE EAST Houthi leader Abdel Malek al-Houthi, led outside of the Saudi-led coalition’s priori- this delegation and had previously attend- ties yet still pose a direct threat to Yemen ed talks in Oman before UN negotiations and beyond. in Geneva last year. If similar measures to With questions arising over the health build trust between Houthis and the Saudi of Sultan Qaboos, observers are wary of coalition pick up, Oman is poised to ac- Oman’s future stability. Any transitional celerate engagement. This past fall, Oman tensions within the Omani government harnessed its channels of communication following the death of Sultan Qaboos with the Houthis to secure the release of could be exploited by AQAP and Daesh two Americans, three Saudis, and a Brit- should a conflict erupt. In fact, the Dhofar ish hostage. In other cases in Yemen, the Rebellion is fresh in the mind of Omani Sultan aided in securing the release of a US leadership. Throughout the 1960s and journalist, a World Bank employee, and a seventies, an Iranian and British-backed French national. Oman even pushed Iran Oman launched a counterinsurgency cam- to release detained American hikers in 2011. paign against a Chinese and South Yemen- In relation to its domestic interests, Oman backed Marxist insurgency in the southern has reinforced historic ties with Iran. The Dhofar Governorate along the Yemeni bor- two nations agreed to a $60 billion energy der. With an eye towards Yemen, Qaboos deal in 2013 that involves a marine pipe- and his government are keen to restore a line, and Oman continues to seek greater legitimate government, bring an end to a trade, investment, and economic coopera- conflict that may pose a threat to Oman’s tion with Iran, especially in a post-sanc- security interests, and prevent insurgents tions environment that will benefit its own from crossing its borders yet again. There- economy. However, with Omani-Iranian fore, it is not only in the international com- relations in mind, it is important for Oman munity’s interests to seek Oman’s help in to uphold its neutrality, as tipping too far ending Yemen’s bloodshed. Oman has a towards Tehran or Riyadh could damage large stake in Yemen’s stability and is mo- its credibility and consistent diplomatic tivated to achieve peace. balance by isolating one partner at the ex- While a political settlement in Yemen pense of the other. seems out of reach at the current moment, It is also in Oman’s interest to bring an Oman is a necessary counterpart to any ne- end to this conflict due to the potential gotiations and should coordinate with the internal security threats on its southwest- UN-led efforts while also pursuing diplo- ern border. Groups like Al-Qaeda have ex- matic endeavors of its own. Thus far, the ploited the Saudi-led Arab coalition’s focus UN-led efforts have faltered, and it offers on the Houthis and pro-Saleh loyalists. Al- potential for regional actors to work to- Qaeda consolidated control along the coast wards a solution where the UN has failed. in Hadramout province, seizing the largest With access to all actors in the Yemeni port city of Al Mukallah in April of 2015. conflict and a unique legacy of assuming Moreover, Daesh – the Islamic State in Iraq the role of a third-party mediator in Mid- and Syria (ISIS) – has pursued greater in- dle Eastern disputes, Oman may represent fluence as well. It has unleashed numerous Yemen’s best chance to overcome intran- deadly bombings against Shia and Houthi sigence. • mosques in the Yemeni capital of Sanaa in an effort to stoke sectarian tension and disrupt attempts to restore Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi’s internationally-recognized government. The conflict has indirectly ac- commodated groups like Daesh’s Wilayet (Arabic for province) Sana’a and Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), who lie

MIDDLE EAST // 41 In the Saudi-Iranian Rift, Lebanon is the Real Loser - Ali N. Habhab

hen Saudi Arabia announced in Saudi-Iranian tensions have been fueling February that it would cancel a conflicts from Syria to Yemen, and Iraq to W $4 billion aid package to the Leba- nese government and armed forces, it set off a Bahrain, but perhaps nowhere more potently than in political firestorm throughout the country, and Lebanon.” threatened to upset the delicate balance that has maintained relative peace during the Syrian conflict. The Kingdom explained that it took Iran’s financial and military support of He- of the fragile state’s population. It has struggled this step because it did not have confidence in zbollah has made it the target of much criti- to provide humanitarian aid and adequate ser- the Lebanese government’s ability to shake off cism inside Lebanon and beyond. As Iran has vices to the refugee population and is quickly the influence of Iranian-backed Hezbollah, the attempted to propel its influence in the Arab transforming into a springboard for refugees to Shi’ite militant organization that has been at World, it has only ratcheted up its support of travel to Europe. The instability fueled by the war with Saudi-backed rebels in the Syrian civil Hezbollah, much to the dismay of Saudi Ara- Iranian-Saudi crisis has stoked fears that the war. The move is part of Saudi Arabia’s new, bia. Iran’s powerful influence over Lebanon rate of refugees fleeing Lebanon for Europe more aggressive strategy to counter what they was demonstrated in the January flashpoint could accelerate dramatically, increasing the perceive as growing Iranian power in the Arab that led to the cutting of ties between Tehran burden on European nations. As a result, and World. Although the decision might boost the and Riyadh. Following the execution of Shi’ite in a somewhat surprising move, the Obama Ad- Kingdom’s regional credibility, it is clear that cleric and Saudi dissident Nimr al-Nimr, Ira- ministration has both publically and privately as Saudi Arabia and Iran duke it out on the nians set fire to the Saudi embassy, and soon warned Saudi Arabia to tone down its pressure international stage, it is Lebanon that comes Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies resolved to close on the Lebanese government. In fact, according out the loser. relations with Iran. The Arab League signed a to the Wall Street Journal, a U.S. official called Saudi Arabia followed up the cancellation letter of condemnation over Iran’s response to the Saudi actions “a significant overreaction.” of the aid package by issuing a tourist warn- what Saudi considered an internal affair, and This suggests that the international community ing to Saudis traveling to Lebanon, a central Lebanon was the lone member to refuse to sign is beginning to recognize the real threat that the aspect of the nation’s tourist industry, as well the letter. This followed Lebanon’s refusal to Saudi-Iranian rift poses to Lebanon, and future as by blacklisting several Lebanese businesses join Saudi Arabia’s anti-terror coalition in De- reactions will be important to watch. and individuals it accused of having Hezbollah cember, an act that also left the Saudis feeling Saudi-Iranian tensions have been fueling connections. More recently, and perhaps most spurned. These actions show that as long as Iran conflicts from Syria to Yemen, and Iraq to Bah- consequentially, Saudi Arabia and its Gulf al- and Saudi Arabia continue to use Lebanon as a rain, but perhaps no more potently than in Leb- lies declared Hezbollah a terrorist organization, proxy in their cold – but increasingly hot – war, anon. The Lebanese economy lives and dies by sending a clear warning to the Hezbollah and Lebanon’s political system will remain fractured the stability of the state’s fragile security situa- its chief sponsor, Iran. and incapable of keeping peace. tion. Without stability, there will be no tourism, While these actions do in fact increase the It is no secret that a stable, functioning Leb- no investment, and no industry. The conflict in pressure on Hezbollah and Iran, the stabili- anon needs Saudi Arabia by its side. The Saudi- Syria has already taken a significant toll on the ty of the Lebanese state has taken the brunt Lebanese relationship has pumped billions of country’s economic growth, internal stability, of the blows, with pro-Saudi and pro-Iranian dollars into Lebanon’s fledgling economy, and and rattled the balance of power created by the factions within the country sharpening their recent actions threaten to choke off Lebanon 1990 Ta’if agreement, which ended the nation’s rhetoric and trading a war of words over who is from Saudi investment. According to Business 15-year civil war. Any semblance of normalcy to blame. To make matters worse, the country Insider, 25 percent of Lebanon’s exports go to requires that both Iranian and Saudi interfer- is in the midst of a presidential vacuum that the Saudi-led Gulf Cooperation Council, and ence in the country’s internal affairs be limited started in 2014, and the increase in polarization nearly 6 percent of Lebanon’s GDP comes from to the role of a positive, cooperative partner. will only continue to deny Lebanese Christians the remittances of Lebanese working in the If Lebanon continues to be used as a proxy in a voice in the country’s unique sectarian-style Gulf. Lebanon cannot risk losing its economic the struggle between Tehran and Riyadh, the government. Lebanon’s government was already lifeline to its oil-rich Arab partners, and yet, prospects for peace and prosperity will only gripped by paralysis, unable to solve a garbage Saudi pressure is unlikely to shake Iranian and move further and further away. • crisis that began when the nation’s only munici- Hezbollah influence in the country. In addi- pal landfill was closed in 2015. The moves by tion, the Saudi-Iranian conflict in Lebanon has Saudi Arabia have also reignited long-standing implications beyond the nation’s borders, lead- tensions between Lebanon’s Sunni and Shi’ite ing to increasing concern from foreign actors. populations, which have been at odds over the Lebanon currently hosts over 1 million Syr- Iran-Saudi Arabia rift for more than a decade. ian refugees, constituting more than 25 percent

42 // MIDDLE EAST Behind Closed Doors Informal Socio-cultural Dissidence in Iran - Nisreen Salka

nder the leadership of Ayatollah past decade, and the nation has published three The cultivation of cultural capital in the Ruhollah Khomeini, the Iranian Rev- times more books than all other Arab nations private sphere now fuels the slow integration U olution of 1979 sought to dismantle combined. of popular culture into the public sphere, re- flagrant corruption at the highest levels of gov- Access to higher education instills intel- gardless of government mandates. Billboards ernment. His promise to hold politicians ac- lectual curiosity, thus emboldening citizens endorse celebrities rather than public officials, countable through religious values institution- to search for alternative information sources and the best-selling album Neither Angel, Nor alized the Islamic Republic, a constitutional despite strict censorship laws. Ironically, Rou- Satan decries religion as an institutional obliga- theocracy that blends Napoleonic and Islamic hani’s $4.5 billion investment in improving In- tion. Public restrictions on male-female interac- laws. Such conditions limit sociopolitical in- ternet speeds serves that purpose, increasing tions accelerate private displays of affection in fluence, and so Iranian citizens express their national bandwidth by 250 percent in the past the bedroom, instigating a sexual revolution. At independence in a private cultural jihad that year. Convenience benefits underground sys- the forefront of cultural change, the educated reduces the Islamic Republic’s sphere of influ- tems, virtual private networks (VPNs) that af- youth derive inspiration from sites that sidestep ence in personal affairs. fordably bypass government controls for $1 per domestic censorship laws and celebrate per- The contested re-election of President Mah- month. The structure successfully circumvents sonal independence. The informal insurgence moud Ahmadinejad in 2009 devastated the blocked social media sites with a quarter of the thus counteracts government enforcement of economy and strained foreign relations, popu- population now operating registered Facebook compulsory religious practices, rejecting that larizing the election of reformist Hassan Rou- accounts. Furthermore, 70 percent VPN usage which now constitutes nothing more than po- hani four years later. Rouhani’s acceptance of among adolescents surpasses national Internet litical rhetoric. • Iran’s censorship practices stems not from dis- penetration, indicative of the desire for alterna- interest, but from limited political influence to tive information sources. change the status quo. Strategically ignoring Exposure to such open communication un- that which he cannot change, Rouhani instead derwrites the indigenization of foreign stan- fosters an educated middle class through eco- dards to traditional values. Despite the pro- nomic and diplomatic reforms. hibition of pre-marital intercourse, the aver- His concessions to Western powers succeed- age Iranian woman loses her virginity 1.3 years ed in lifting crippling economic sanctions, in- earlier than her American counterparts, and creasing vital crude oil exports by 500,000 bar- the average Iranian man 1.9 years earlier. Often rels per day. As a result, GDP per capita rose delaying marriage until their late twenties, they 305 percent over the past decade to $17,800. The thus have a gap of about ten years to engage flourishing middle class dilutes the clergy’s eco- in periodic pre-marital intercourse. Neverthe- nomic influence, and reallocates financial con- less, the birth rate dipped from 3.9 percent in trols to the citizens. No stranger to brain drain, 1986 to 1.2 percent in 2012, the fastest drop ever such improved standards of living promise to recorded internationally. The implication of slow the annual emigration of 150,000 Iranians birth contraceptive utilization and non-marital in search of employment. Retaining the highly intercourse suggests that Iran’s de facto sexual educated within its borders, Iran now holds a norms differ significantly from those insinu- distinctively different demographic than it has ated under law. in years past. Collective dissent against such morality laws Under Ahmadinejad, only 34 percent of ad- is most prominent in the resurgence of popular olescents pursued post-secondary education. By culture in private spaces. Although Iran requires May 2015, the expansion of Azad University government permits for mass publication or to 100 campuses holding 1.5 million students public performances, artists evade the restric- increased that proportion to 84 percent. Of tions through informal distribution networks. those students, 65 percent are women. In con- Word-of-mouth advertising monetizes their trast to a foreign study of older generations, the endeavors, and the youth culture benefits from increasing legitimacy of domestic educational individualized artistic expression. For instance, institutions concentrates trained professionals government officials removed producer Mehran within the country. Attracted to academic and Modiri’s satirical television program Shabhaye economic opportunities, Iranian youth elevate Barareh from the air within a year of its debut productivity to unprecedented levels. Scien- in 2006, but private financing of the DVD tific output has increased by 575 percent in the ensures its survival.

MIDDLE EAST // 43 The Forever War

- Graham Steffens

his September will mark the 15th an- cause hundreds. America cannot in February 2016. US Spe- niversary of the United States’ longest extract itself from engaging these cial Forces also carried out T war: the War on Terror. Nearly 15 years threats and these threats will not a similarly successful raid ago, the United States began what it hoped disappear anytime soon. Enter in May 2015 that resulted would be a quick and decisive set of campaigns the forever war. Enter the need in the death of senior IS designed to reinforce governments across the for America to reexamine its con- This image is a work of a U.S. official Abu Sayyaf and the Army soldier, taken or made as world, particularly in the Middle East, and to cept of war itself. part of that person’s official capture of his wife, Umm ensure that terrorists would never have the ca- America has a long running duties. STAFF SGT. JEREMY D. CRISP. Sayyaf. Without a doubt, pacity to kill thousands of Americans again. tendency to believe it is either they continuously carry out Fast forward to today and this goal evades the at war or at peace. In the average American other, innumerable raids behind closed doors to United States. The Middle East continues to mind, there is no grey area between these two discretely accomplish similar objectives. They collapse in upon itself, the Taliban are resurgent concepts, which is actually vastly different from represent minimal commitment for maximum in Afghanistan, and Islamic terrorists are able many countries throughout history. Many Eu- effect. to strike Western governments with frightening ropean countries are more comfortable with Drone strikes are subject to heavy criticism regularity. There is no end in sight. The United this concept of grey conflict areas because they for their civilian casualties, but if used in con- States faces a war with no time horizons. The have a history of colonial policing. The military junction with Special Forces, have the potential United States faces a war with an ever-changing would operate permanently in the field to keep to be extremely effective in degrading enemy enemy. The United States faces a war that its the colonies under control, while the civilians combat power. Data shows that actual civil- people are sick of, yet a war which it has no back home would reap the benefit. Low-level ian casualties due to drone strikes are far less choice but to fight. If the United States has any conflict was to be expected because of the na- than civilian casualties due to conventionally hope of successfully weathering this ‘forever ture of maintaining colonies. Americans pre- deployed soldiers. If used properly, civilian cau- war,’ it will have to accustom itself to a new fer big, decisive battles that decide the victor salities can be kept to a minimum while still type of battlefield and throw away its conven- quickly and then ‘bring the boys back home.’ accomplishing US strategic objectives. Most tional concept of war. This concept conflicts with the nature of recently, coordinated drone strikes mortally Every war America fought up to the 21st the War on Terror. This war requires destroying wounded top IS commander Abu Omar al- century came with a reasonable time horizon. terrorist threats wherever they may appear and Shishani, robbing the group of valuable lead- Even America’s previous longest war, the Viet- America has no hope of guaranteeing stability ership. Using drone strikes to knock out these nam War, had a definite end. That end came throughout the Middle East, let alone the rest key enemy assets while Special Forces carry out when the American people decided they no of the world, and thus America will constantly covert missions of their own or in conjunction longer wished to fight communist insurgents in be engaged in low-level conflict. The War on will be far more effective than entangling the the jungles of Southeast Asia, a decision which Terror will only end when there are no more US in a costly conventional ground invasion, they could make with relative security. Yes, the terrorists, which will not occur any time soon. something the American public usually does loss of Vietnam would be a supposed victory America must therefore embrace the low-level not consider. for Communism, but the enemy never posed type of war that it traditionally resents. There Americans balk at this strategy. Unlimit- a direct threat to American civilians. Compare are two key ways that America is beginning to ed use of military force largely shielded from that to today’s wars, where a single individual do this: utilizing Special Forces more than ever public view and fought by a force operating terrorist can deal more damage to American ci- before and embracing drone strikes as a critical in a moral grey area goes against everything vilians, property, or interests than any Vietcong way to decapitate enemy leadership. Americans believe to be ‘just’ war. But consider guerilla ever could. America cannot back out of Special Forces are quickly becoming the tip the other options. Large-scale deployments to the War on Terror as it could the Vietnam War, of the spear in the War on Terror. The ability to control populations already sick of American because backing down poses a far more direct operate alongside local populations, maintain occupation will win few fans. Completely aban- threat. Anywhere the disease of radicalism is a small footprint, and strike enemy positions doning the War on Terror, thereby abandoning allowed to fester threatens the West. quickly make Special Forces the preferred meth- Iraq, Afghanistan, many nations in Africa, parts This threat is most prevalent in the Middle od of fighting low-level warfare. They do not of Pakistan, and countless other countries will East. Be it Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Libya, or any require the funding of a full brigade of soldiers lead to chaos. The United States is too invested moderately unstable state, America has a vested and can function discreetly so as not to cause to walk away. America must therefore embrace interest in using military force to degrade the backlash from the population they are trying the role it was reluctantly drawn into. It must threat. A terrorist training camp allowed to op- to protect. These highly trained soldiers are al- reconcile its concept of war with modern battle- erate anywhere is a threat everywhere. A single ready being used in raids into Syria and Iraq to field realities. It must commit to fighting the radicalized individual can infiltrate the West capture high value targets, such as one of the Forever War. • and cause a half-dozen casualties. A group can Islamic State’s top chemical weapons experts

44 // MIDDLE EAST

MJIA STAFF

EDITORIAL BOARD Stuart Richardson EDITOR-IN-CHIEF

Trevor Grayeb and Ali N. Habhab MANAGING EDITORS

Vineet Chandra DIRECTOR OF EXTERNAL AFFAIRS

Elisabeth Brennen DIRECTOR OF FINANCE

Brendan Failla SECRETARY

STAFF WRITERS AFRICA AMERICAS ASIA Emma Stout, Daniel Medendorp, Hannah Feldshuh, REGIONAL EDITOR REGIONAL EDITOR REGIONAL EDITOR Sam Corey Maria Fabrizio Megan Cansfield Vaidehi Dongre Kyle Forness Vineet Chandra Liliya Kulyk Max Goldman Trevor Grayeb Stuart Richardson Brian Henderson Sanuri Gunawardena Caitlin Thomas Noah Kerwin Lanxin Jiang Meghan Rowley Chen Liang Casimir Stone Akash Ramanujam EUROPE Ava Tavrazich John Soltis Matthew Rosenthal, Connor VanDenBosch April Song REGIONAL EDITOR Laura Vicinanza Bing Sun Andrew Beddow Justin Berg Elisabeth Brennen Tyler Coady MIDDLE EAST Ben Erlich Graham Steffens, Erin Eusebi REGIONAL EDITOR Brendan Failla Sindhu Kadhiresan Ali N. Habhab Katherine Mercieca Daniel Karr Brianne Recker Ali Al Momar Olivia Singer Ilhana Redzovic Nisreen Salka Jillian Smith Ryan Strong COVER ART BY KARA ARGUE (KARGUE.COM)

LAYOUT DESIGN BY RICK TENG