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Cost Estimation Northern Suburbs Transit Corridor MCA Options Cost Estimate Report Prepared for: Aurecon F2011 NSTC MCA Options v03 This document is Commercial in Confidence and prepared by: Fission Pty Ltd Suite 4a, 19 Lang Parade Milton QLD 4064 Phone: +61 7 3870 2730 Visit: www.fission.net.au Document Control Document Name F2011 NSTC MCA Options Client Project Number Client Aurecon on behalf of PWC Client Contact Revision Detail/Status Author Checked Approved Date v01 Draft report for feedback DG TJ 27 Apr 2020 v02 Update for feedback DG TJ 28 Apr 2020 Update for BRT and TT single track V03 DG TJ DG 17 Nov 2020 corridor width F2011 NSTC MCA Options v03 Northern Suburbs Transit Corridor at a Glance 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Concept Development Construction Long Construction Short Project Metrics Long Short CBD to Granton – 21km CBD to Berridale – Alignment Length corridor 12km corridor Stations Including CBD 13 10 Power Substations (including depot) 14 11 Stabling/Maintenance Facility Yes Yes Number of vehicles 8 6 $800M Hobart Northern Suburbs Transit Corridor - MCA Options Analysis $700M $600M $500M $400M $300M $200M $100M $M Option 1: LRT Option 1: LRT Option 2: BRT Option 2: BRT Option 3: TT Option 3: TT Long Short Long Short Long Short Scoping Development Delivery Property Construction Cost Client supplied Vehicles F2011 NSTC MCA Options v03 2 Index Appendices ............................................................................................................................................. 6 Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................ 7 Glossary of Terms ........................................................................................................................... 8 Scope of Report .............................................................................................................................. 9 Project Background ....................................................................................................................... 10 3.1 Overview ................................................................................................................................. 10 Main Assumptions ......................................................................................................................... 12 4.1 Documents Reviewed ............................................................................................................. 12 4.2 Site Inspection ........................................................................................................................ 12 4.3 Project Assumptions ............................................................................................................... 12 4.4 Scope Quantification Assumptions ......................................................................................... 12 4.5 Limitations of Estimate............................................................................................................ 15 4.6 Pricing Data Source ................................................................................................................ 15 4.7 Project Staging ....................................................................................................................... 17 Construction Costs ........................................................................................................................ 18 5.1 Direct Job Costs ..................................................................................................................... 18 5.2 Indirect Job Costs ................................................................................................................... 18 5.3 Project Profit ........................................................................................................................... 18 Principal’s Costs ............................................................................................................................ 20 6.1 Principal’s Costs Summary ..................................................................................................... 20 6.2 Staff and Technical Advisors .................................................................................................. 22 6.3 Sunk Costs ............................................................................................................................. 22 6.4 Property .................................................................................................................................. 23 6.5 Public Utility Plant ................................................................................................................... 23 Construction Methodology ............................................................................................................ 24 7.1 Overview ................................................................................................................................. 24 7.2 Development and Delivery Periods ........................................................................................ 24 F2011 NSTC MCA Options v03 3 7.3 Construction Methods ............................................................................................................. 24 Risk and Opportunity Review ........................................................................................................ 25 8.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 25 8.2 Next Steps .............................................................................................................................. 25 Escalation Calculation ................................................................................................................... 27 9.1 Escalation Indices ................................................................................................................... 27 9.2 Project Cashflow ..................................................................................................................... 27 F2011 NSTC MCA Options v03 4 Tables Table 1 Project Cost Summary ............................................................................................................... 7 Table 2 Main Estimate Assumptions ..................................................................................................... 12 Table 3 Estimating Method ................................................................................................................... 16 Table 4 Principal’s Cost Basis of Estimate ........................................................................................... 20 Table 5 Delivery Periods and Monthly Cashflow .................................................................................. 24 Table 6 Risk Allowance Summary ........................................................................................................ 25 Table 7 Escalation Indices .................................................................................................................... 27 Figures Figure 1 Indicative Location of Hobart Northern Suburbs Transit Corridor .......................................... 11 Figure 2 Example Flexity 2 Tram .......................................................................................................... 20 Figure 3 BRT - Van Hool Exqui City ..................................................................................................... 21 Figure 4 TT - CRRC ART ...................................................................................................................... 22 F2011 NSTC MCA Options v03 5 Appendices A - Information Reviewed B - Project Cost Summary C – Project scope assumptions D – Detailed Cost Estimates E – Deterministic Risk Assessment F - Cash Flow and Escalation Calculation F2011 NSTC MCA Options v03 6 Executive Summary Fission has been engaged by Aurecon to provide indicative project costs for input to the MCA process for the Northern Suburbs Transit Corridor located in Hobart. The transit corridor runs from the Hobart CBD, along an existing rail corridor north to Berridale for Stage 1 and then continues further north to Granton for Stage 2. The Concept Design Options Assessment is considering three options for modes of transport, with two corridor options for each, a short option consisting of Stage 1 and a long option consisting of Stages 1 and 2. The modes of transport being considered are: . Light Rail Transit (LRT), . Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), and . Trackless Trams (TT). The anticipated cost of each option including risk contingency and escalation is shown in the table below. A more detailed breakdown of the project cost breakdown is contained in Appendix B (Project Cost Summary). Table 1 Project Cost Summary Element LRT Long LRT Short BRT Long BRT Short TT Long TT Short Scoping $15M $12M $12M $9M $13M $10M Development $30M $23M $23M $18M $26M $20M Delivery $33M $25M $25M $19M $29M $22M Property $M $M $M $M $M $M Construction Cost $244M $186M $203M $156M $220M $168M Client supplied Vehicles $60M $45M $28M $20M $40M $30M Total Base Cost $383M $291M $291M $221M $328M $249M Risk & Contingency $214M $163M $154M $117M $184M $139M Escalation $88M $63M $67M $47M $76M $54M Total project Cost $685M $517M $512M $385M $588M $442M The escalation calculations are based on a construction contract award in Jan 2024 with
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