September 12, 1978 EXTENSIONS OF REMARKS 29057 EXTENSIONS OF REMARKS BALANCE($) OF POWER SERIES was intended as another magnum opus, di Soviet body that a foreign state had gone BOOK IV Statements or insertions which are not spoken by the Member on the floor will be identified by the use of a "bullet" symbol, i.e., • 29058 EXTENSIONS OF REMARKS September 12, 1978 E. Take up matters on a normal level and words will have permanent bad effect on our my colleagues a well-expressed editorial Insist that Russians take full responsib111ty relations. which appeared in the Press-Courier on for their actions on that level. The Russian ls never more agreeable than Wednesday, August 23, 1978, concerning Requests should not, as a rule, be taken to after his knuckles have been sharply rapped. higher levels just because we have !ailed to He takes well to rough play and rarely holds the House-passed tax cut bill and Presi get satisfaction on a lower level. This merely grudges over it. Let us not forget Stalin's dent Carter's concerns about it. encourages the Russian bureaucracy to be first reaction when he met Ribbentrop. It was The editorial follows: uncooperative and causes our relations with to joke good-naturedly and cynically about (From the Press-Courier, Aug. 23, 1978) high-level Soviet authorities to be encum the bitter propaganda. war which had been bered with matters of second-rate impor waged for so many years between the two HOUS'E POINTS WAY tance. Instead of this, we should take our countries. The Russian governing class re.:. The $16.3 bllllon tax cut approved recently retaliatory or corrective action promptly and spects only the strong. To them, shyness in by the House clearly offers more for the tax unhesitatingly when we do not obtain satis dispute ls a form of weakness. payer than the larger and concentually de faction on the lower level. It ls only in this I. Coordinate, in accordance with our es fective package proposed by President Carter way that we can teach the Russians to respect tablished policies, all activities of our gov in January. the whole range of our officials who must deal ernment relating to Russia and all private The President dislikes the House-passed with them. By fa111ng to back up our sub American activities of this sort which the blll for several reasons. He ls unhappy that ordinate officials ln their dealings with the government can influence. 72 percent of the benefits of the cut would Russians. we make lt difficult for ourselves to The Russians are quick to take advantage go to those earning $20,000 a year or more. He accomplish anything in the intervals between of conflicts, inconsistencies, and the seeking also prefers a smaller capital gains tax re high-level meetings. This works in the in of private alms on the pa.rt of our nationals duction, and he favors inclusion of a laundry terests of the Russians and preludlces our or agencies of our government. Their own list of revenue-generating "reforms," in Interests. This ls a very important point and system ls designed to produce the maximum cluding lowered deductions for the "three goes to the heart of many of our failures of concentration of national energies. We can martinl" business lunches and smaller wrlte the last two or three years. The top level ls not face them effectively unless we do all in offs for real estate depreciation. physically incapable of encompassing the our power to concentrate our own effort. However, there ls ample evidence that re whole range of our dealings with the Soviet J. Strengthen and support our representa ductions ln personal income taxes for upper government and of assuring the collaboration tion in Russia. lncome earners-including the mllllonalres which we a.re seeking. Agreements reached The American embassy in Moscow ls the Carter finds such convenient targets-actu there can be-and frequently are-sabotaged symbol of our country to the Russians. It ally lead to increases ln collected taxes plus successfully and with impunity on the lower is watched intently by many people. It must a dampening of inflation. That ls precisely levels. We must train the Rucistans to make be not only the representation of our society the record of the 19R4 and 1965 tax cuts. And their whole machine, not .1ust Stalin, respond but also a guiding brain center of our policy because upper middle income earners will be senslblv to our approaches. toward Russia. In the face of frequent neg hardest hit ln January by higher Social Se P. Do not encourage high-level exchanges lect and discouragement, always the object curity taxes, an income tax cut this year ls of views with the Russians unless the lnltia of attacks by jealous self-seekers and dis abundantly fair. tlve comes at least 50 percent from their side. contented liberals, never enjoying the full backing or understanding of people in Wash Reductions in capital gains tax rates wlll Russians can be dealt with satisfactorily ington, never properly staffed or properly help pump needed investment dollars into only when they themselves want something housed, it has nevertheless managed to be an economy nearly everyone agrees faces an and feel them.selves tn a deoendent position. come a pioneering establishment in the acute shortage of investment capital. It should be a matter of technique with us to American Foreign Service and the most re When the Senate considers the House's tax eee that they are not dealt with on a high spected diplomatic mission in Moscow. cut, lt should think carefully about avoid level except when these conditions prevail. It could do far more and play a far greater ing the risks of high inflation. Additional G. Do not be afraid to use heavy weapons role in the Soviet Union if it received proper investment credits would be one way to fat for what seem to us to be minor matters. support. This means that failure of the So ten the tax cut without ballooning inflation. This ls likewise a very important point, viet government to grant quarters and other Not everything ls perfect about the House and one which many Americans wlll receive faclllties for the performance of diplomatic approved blll. Lawmakers declined to adopt wlth skepticism. In general, it may be bad work in Moscow must sooner or later be made indexing for personal income tax rates, a true practice to take a sledgehammer to swat a an open issue between the governments and reform that would adjust income tax brack fty. Wlth the Russians lt ls sometimes nec pressure must be brought to bear to improve ets to protect taxpayers from purely infla essary. Russians will pursue a flexible policy these conditions. It means that the mission tionary tax hikes. of piecemeal presumption and encroachment must be adequately staffed with American Fortunately, however, the House dld widen on other people's interests, hoping that no personnel. the tax brackets by 6 percent, thus decreas single action wm appear important enough Finally it means that the mission must at ing the amount of income subject to higher to produce a strong reaction on the pa.rt of all times be led by someone capable of and taxes. That, and an indexing provision for their opponents, and that in this way they prepared for hard and tedious work over a capital gains taxes-including the $100,000 may gradually bring about a major improve long period of time, someone who has in exemption for homeowners--ought certainly ment in their position before the other fel high degree the qualities of modesty and to remain ln the bill. low knows what's up. patience, who is animated solely by devotion The House has pointed the way to an In this way, they have a stubborn tend to the interests of our country, and ls gen acceptable tax cut package. All lt needs ls a ency to push every question right up to erally fitted by personality and background little fine tuning in the Senate to make lt what they believe to be the breaking point to earn the respect of a nation unexcelled in even better·• of the patience of those with whom they deal. the psychological analysis of the human in If they know that their opponent means dividual. In the case of Ambassador Harri business, that the· line of his patience ls man, I can sincerely say that I consider these ftrmly established and that he wm not hesi prerequisites fulfilled. tate to take serious measures if this line ls But I make this observation with an eye ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF PLANNED violated even in small wavs and at isolated to the future. The post of ambassador to NITRITE PHASEOUT points, they wlll be careful and considerate. Moscow ls not a sinecure which can be light They do not like a showdown unless they ly disposed of; and the department must be have a great preponderance of strength. But prepared to use lts influence to see that it HON. WILLIAM C. WAMPLER they are quick to sense and take advantage ls effectively filled. The Moscow mission OJ' VIRGINIA of indecision or good-natured tolerance. works, and has always worked, under strain, IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES Whoever deals with them must therefore be in the face of multitudinous obstacles. A sure to maintain at all times an attitude vain, fussy, and ignorant ambassador is ca Tuesday, September 12, 1978 of decisiveness and alertness ln the defense pable of breaking its back, and of doing la.st of his own interests. ing (lf not readily apparent) damage to the • Mr. wAMPLER. Mr. Speaker. the H. Do not be afraid of unpleasantness and fabric of Russian-American relatlons.e proposed action by the Secretary of public airing of differences. Agriculture and HEW SUMMARY OF MAJOR CONTRACT EXPIRATIONS, CALENDAR YEAR 1979 Workers Workers Industry Companies Unions covered Expiration date Industry Companies Unions covered Expiration date Petroleum Texaco, Standard Oil Co. Oil, Chemical and 43, 200 Jan. 7. Clothing ______Affiliated Dress Garment Workers. 182, 700 May 30-31. refining. (Amoco), Atlantic Atomic Workers Manufacturers, Richfield, Shell, (OCAW), and Greater Blouse, Mobil, Exxon, and others. Skirt & Under others. garment Association, Construction..... General Contractors Various con 208, 250 Feb.-Dec. National Skirt and American (light and struction Sportswear, and heavy construction) unions. others. (multistate) (106 Electrical General Electric, Electrical Workers 153, 300 June 30-July 15. agreements). products. Westinghouse. (IUE, UE). Trucking ______Over-the-Road and Teamsters •••••••• 528, 150 Mar. 31. Meatpacking_ •••• Armour, Swift, Wilson, Meatcutters •••••• 31, 750 Aug. 31. Local Cartage. Rath, Oscar Mayer, Rubber •••••••••• Goodyear, Firestone Rubber Workers ••• 82, 650 Apr. 19. John Morrell, Uniroyal, Goodricn.1 Dubuque. Automobile •••••• General Motors, Ford, Auto Workers ••••• 661, 400 Sept. 14. Chrysler. Farm International Auto Workers ••••• 94, 400 Sept. 30. implements. Harvester, Deere, Caterpillar, Allis I Chalmers. • AMERICANS STILL WORRY ABOUT worsened. Among the reasons selected for I recommend further reading of the JOBS causing unemployment, was the lack of study to Members desiring further in job skills. formation.• Overall, the public supports the con HON. AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS cept of the Federal Government taking OF CALIFORNIA the lead in providing jobs and training IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES to the unemployed. The American public PLACING THE COMPROMISE NAT Tuesday, September 12, 1978 firmly holds the belief that people should URAL GAS BILL IN PERSPECTIVE be able to work if they want to and a e Mr. HAWKINS. Mr. Speaker, the clear plurality of 47 percent feels that Labor Department recently released the it is the responsibility of Government to HON. BRUCE F. VENTO results of an important survey of the provide a job for everyone who wants to OF MINNESOTA public's attitude toward unemployment work. This result is significant when one IN THE HOUS.E OF REPRESENTATIVES and related issues-unemployment, Gov considers that four other alternatives Tuesday, September 12, 1978 ernment, and the American people. As were presented: Creating jobs through we move toward :final House considera • Mr. VENTO. Mr. Speaker, I am sub business expansion; encouraging job mitting for the RECORD an article which tion of legislation to reform the CETA creation through a personal income tax system, H.R. 12452, I appreciate the op appeared in the September 1, 1978, St. cut; providing tax breaks for corpora Paul TAXFLATION AND THE WORKING THE CASE FOR THE KEMP-ROTH TAX CUT down the income spectrum, with the greatest PEOPLE: WHY TAXES FOR BLUE TAXFLATION AND THE WORKING MAN impact on the group from $15,000 to $30,000 (By Warren T. Brookes) in income, and particularly on white collar COLLAR WORKERS ARE GOING workers whose gross incomes have not even UP George J. is a. factory worker in Brockton. kept pace with inflation. On January 1, 1976, !le wa.s earning $200 a We know a man (Lawrence, K.) who is in week-a.bout the national average of $5 an his middle age, and holds down a. middle HON. JACK F. KEMP hour. (See Table I) management professional job paying about After ta.king out for Federal, state and OF NEW YORK $27,700 a year, up 50 percent from the in local taxes (including the property tax on his come he drew in a professional job in middle IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES house) and for Social Security, he was taking management back in 1967 (See Table II) Tuesday, September 12, 1978 home $161.69, to spend. Unfortunately, in that 10-year period his Thirty months later, in June of 1978, total tax bill ha.s risen from $4136 a year to • Mr. KEMP. Mr. Speaker, during the George's weekly gross pay had risen, through $9554, a. rise of 130 percent-or nearly 2% August 10 debate on the Revenue Act of his union contract and cost of living in times as much as his income I 1978, the tax bill, and my attempt, creases, to $246-again, about the national Worse still, he has watched the CPI (in average of $6.15 per hour. fiation) rise by 95.3 percent. The result is through a motion to recommit with in It was a husky increase of 23 percent in ·structions to report back that bill to the gross pay in 2Y:i years-or about 9 percent a that his after tax income has dropped, in House immediately with an amendment year-slightly above the national average of real terms by nearly $5000-0r-35 percent, including individual income tax rate income growth. even though his gross income has risen by reductions of about 30 percent over the Unfortunately, since January 1976, 50 percent. George's total tax bill (federal, state and Unfortunately, there are many middle in next 3 years, I stressed the critical im come Americans like Lawrence K., whose in portance of that motion and those lower local) has risen 43.2, nearly twice as fast as his income has grown. comes have grown nowhere near as fast a.s rates to the working people of this As a result his net after-tax income in taxes and inflation-and their living stand country. creased only 18 percent-not 23 percent. Dur ard has steadily declined. My pleas, and those of others equally ing this same 30-month period, the nation's They are paying marginal "taxfia.tion" ratP-s committed to restoring income growth, consumer price index (CPI) rose 17.2 percent. of from 85 to 120 percent on their every went unheeded as the House rejected the This means that, in constant dollars, raise-and in the process are falling steadily motion and then passed the Revenue Act. George's after tax income in June 1978, came behind the nation. This is why so many of to only $163.07, or a net real gain in that en their spouses are being forced into the labor But that Revenue Act will mean those tire period of only $1.38 a week! (See Table I) forces, just to keep up their family stand working people will pay more taxes next To put it another way, taxes and inflation ard-of-living-and this is one of the main year, not less. Under the guise of a tax ate up 97 percent of George's entire increase causes on our 6 percent unemployment rate, reduction, that bill allows a major tax in a. 21/i-yea.r period-which means that his at a time when we are.employing the highest increase to go forward. marginal "taxfla.tion" rate is 97 percent. share of our adult work force in history (58 For example, the average family of George, like all other middle American percent). four with an adjusted gross income of working people, is on a. terrible treadmill Small wonder, when Jack Kemp debated the more he earns, it seems, the less he his proposal on the Public Education program $12,900 next year will be $7 more, not seems to get. The harder he works, the fur "The Advocates" recently, 3500 of its largely less, in taxes. Maybe that is not much, ther behind he falls. No wonder productivity upper-middle-income liberal audience wrote but it is when you consider the Kemp in the U.S. is at lowest growth in history. in their ballots, 87.5 percent in favor of the amendment would have provided a $73 This is why George, and milUons like him Kemp-Roth cut-a vote of 7 to 1 in favor. tax reduction for an $80 difference are suddenly climbing on the bandwagon for This, in spite of very strong charges that between the bill and the amendment. If a massive federal tax cut, similar to the one the Kemp-Roth proposal was "snake-oil" that family makes $18.275 next year, the now being proposed by Kemp-Roth blll. economics, with disastrous consequences 1n (Unfortunately, the House under Speaker difference is even more dramatic. The bill O'Neill's urging, narrowly defeated the Kemp huge deficits and added inflation. provides an $18 reduction, but the Kemp Roth proposal last week.) While we have some reservations about the amendment would have provided a $146 Workers understand Congressman Jack Kemp-Roth advocates' claims that their 30 one, for $164 difference. Kemp when he talks to them about "the loss percent across the board tax cut will quickly But it is when you stretch out the of incentive," and the loss of the ab111ty for "pay for itself," in increased economic effects of the bill and the Kemp amend people like Geor&:e to save, and to put away growth, and real savings, we have no doubt for their future. either of the fairness, or the necessity of a ment to 3 years down the road that you As Kemp points out, the whole process of major across the board tax cut approach, see the biggest differences. That family inflation is driving folks like George into such as they suggest. making $12,900 next year will be paying higher and higher tax brackets, even while What few Americans realize is that, with $234 more in taxes in 1981, in contrast inflation is taking a.way the real value of their out a major tax cut proposal like Kemp with $87 less in taxes if the Kemp praises. Roth, they face a total increase of $286 bll amendment had been adopted. The $18,- Thus, as George's income rose 23 percent, lion, in additional taxes between now and 275 family next year will be paying $208 his federal income tax on that income rose by 1983---or the next five years. (See Table III). more in taxes in 1981, instead of the $330 80 percent, and his Social Security tax, rose This is a 107 percent growth in individual by 27 percent. and payroll taxes in five years! less if the Kemp amendment were law. I The Kemp-Roth tax cut act would cut put tables, showing the difference be George's total Federal income tax liab111ty by Of this. some 114 b11lion will be in Social tween the bill and the Kemp amend 41 percent, or about $380 a year (See Table Security hikes, alone, while another $172 bll ment for all lower and middle income IV)-and would mean that George would lion is just from "taxftation" effect on the have obtained a. net increase after taxes and Federal income tax. This means that with categories for 1979, 1980, and 1981 in the out Kemp-Roth the Federal tax burden on RECORD of August 17, pages 26816- inflation of $8.68 per week, instead of the $1.38 he actually got. individuals will grow 65 percent faster than 26818. While this doesn't seem like much comfort, our personal incomes over the next five vea.rs. During the August district work period its 529 percent more than he is now getting Unless something like the Kemp-Roth bill an article appeared in the Boston Herald and George is ready for any favors he can get. is enacted, this nation is faced with 10-20 American, written by Warren T. Brookes, Take the case of William R. who is a. $15,- years of stagflation-caused by declining pro 000 a. year accounting clerk in a Boston in - ductivity growth (now the lowest in the free a specialist in economic affairs, making surance company. This year he is receiving a world) weak capital formation-and a nation this point: The impact the Kemp-Roth 10 percent increase in pay because of a pro of working middle income folks disslllusloned legislation, the Kemp amendment, would motion. by their inab111ty to rise above the mount have in offsetting the higher inflation Of that $1,500 increase, 38 percent will go ing tide of government taxflation. pushed and higher social security taxes to Federal, state and local taxes, for an addi TABLE 1.-"TAXFLATION" AND THE AMERICAN FACTORY tional ta.x bill of $570 over what he is now over the next 3 years. paying. WORKER Mr. Brookes has taken the average And, another $1,050 of that will go down January June American factory worker and the aver the drain a.s a result of the inflation rate of 7 1976 1978 (p~~c~nn\) age American middle-income profes percent, which affects his entire income base. Gross weekly pay ______$200. 00 $246. 00 23 sional worker and has shown the impact The result is that, after his $1,500 raise, Federal income tax ______10. 42 18. 85 80 William will be $120 worse off than he wa.s Social security tax ______11. 69 14. 88 27 of taxflation-the inflation-pushed State and local taxes ______16. 20 12. 15 31 before he got the raise. Net after taxes ______161. 69 191. 12 18 higher taxes-and higher social security, This means his "marginal taxflatlon" rate CPI (inflation) index ______166. 7 195. 3 17. 2 as well as higher State and local taxes, on ls 108 percent! That's the kind of rates that After inflation (1976 dollars)_ 161. 69 163. 07 • 8 those workers. Sweden charges its wealthiest class. Note: Net chan~e in income out of $46 gross pay increase= This very imPortant piece follows: This same process is now at work up and $1. 38. Marginal 'taxflation" rate; 97 percent. September 12, 1978 EXTENSIONS OF REMARKS 29083 TABLE 11.-ACTUAL MIDDLE INCOME PROFESSIONAL it, but this is what looks like will happen removing asbestos in presently commis WORKER (LAWRENCE K.) unless the Senate now incorporates the sioned ships, and promulgating a possible Percent Kemp-Roth provisions, making them timetable for implementing this removal. 1967 1978 change applicable in 1979.• Mr. Speaker, it is an important first step for this Nation to finally recognize G I · e $18 414 27, 694 50 F~~~~:i~~~~~~~~~--======2: 835 4, 865 72 the menacing proportions of occupa Social security tax______277 1, 071 286 OCCUPATIONAL CANCER STUDY tional exposure to asbestos. It is a p rt t 560 1, 850 230 s!~~sea~d~cise-tiix-es~======46 1eo- 1,552 frightening problem that will not go away State income tax______418 1, 008 141 by itself. And the time to act is now.• Net. ••• ------14, 278 18, 140 27 HON. GLENN M. ANDERSON Inflation index______100 195. 3 95. 3 OF CALIFORNIA Net W~tsl~~!~~~~~~~-----~~----_-___ !~~~~~- c-i.·~:) ... :-:~:~ ~~ IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES BALANCE(S) OF POWER SERIES Tuesday, September 12, 1978 BOOKS II (H) (ii> -POLITICAL TABLE 111.-TAX INCREASES PLANNED FOR 1979-83 CULTURE (In billions of dollars) e Mr. ANDERSON of California. Mr. 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Tota I Speaker, most of our colleagues know of my long concern for the problems created HON. JOHN B. BRECKINRIDGE Social security______9. 5 12. 7 24. 2 32. 6 35. 3 114. 3 by occupational exposure to asbestos. I OF KENTUCKY 0 .. ~~~~~t~ r~~-i~------13. 4 22. 4 32. 8 44. 9 58. 1 112. 2 hope each Member of this body reads IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES TotaL ______22.9 35.1 57.0 77.5 94.0 236.5 the article in this morning's Washing Tuesday, September 12, 1978 ton Post 0n the subject of work-related Source: Congressiona Budiet Office. cancer. • Mr. BRECKINRIDGE. Mr. Speaker, TABLE IV.-IMPACT OF KEMP-ROTH ON FAMILY OF 4 According to a study recently con in the past issue of the CONGRESSIONAL ducted by the National Cancer Institute RECORD I inserted the first part of an Present Proposed Tax Percent Income tax tax cut cut and the National Institute of Environ article entitled "Generations and Politics mental Health Sciences, at least 20 per in the U.S.S.R.," by Prof. Walter D. $180·0°0°0·------0 $m m $i~~ g~ cent of all cancer cases in the United Connor, appearing in the Septem~er $ I •••••••••• 378 41 $12,500______917 539 519 39 States will come from exposure to car October 1975 Problems of Communism. $15,000______1, 330 8li 653 37 cinogens on the job. The conclusion of Professor Connor's article follows: m:~~&::======i: {~~ ~: ~~8 1. ~~ The article cites the study as indicat $25,000______3, 150 2,047 1 m451 34 ing that occupational exposure to asbes Many of the Soviet dissidents have a full $30,000______H~~ ~· ~~~ • 33 participant orientation, but they are a min 35 000 1 875 tos alone may result in 2 million prema $ • ------5' 848 4' 512 2' 336 33 lscule part of the population. Their demands $40,000...... I I I ture cancer deaths in the next 30 years. This would account for 17 percent of all meet resistance and incomprehension from Mr. Speaker, the opponents of Kemp cancer deaths in thP Nation. The total the persisting "subject" culture, shared by Roth the Kemp amendment, upon read rulers and ruled alike. And the "authori figure also surpasses that of every man, tarion interlude," I would argue, extends over ing a~d studying these figures, have said woman, and child in any four of the dis the whole of Soviet history. that we should not be concerned about tricts which we represent. What is most interesting-and potentially 1980 and 1981, for Congres.3 still has time About 67,000 people a year will get relevant-here is the connection of Soviet to enact individual income tax rate re cancer caused by asbestos. Yet the study elites, including the "successors," to the ductions in future years. says, "There is no sound reason to as mass political culture. As children, young I have several comments. sume that the future consequences of adults, and persons commencing their First, the importances of individual careers, they imbibed that mass culture with present-day exposure to carcinogens in its reflections of official dogma-i.e., the income t.ax rate reductions to the econ the workplace will be less than those of "demonology" of the encircling capitalist omy is not only the dollar impact but also exposure in the recent past." Clearly, we world and the roseate picture of a remote the signal it sends. must not allow the present-day exposure Communist future-and with its clear in Does it send the signal that it wants to level to continue. dications of penalties awaiting those who lower taxes-a signal that will restore On October 9, 1975, new Government might aspire to political participation on any taxpayer confidence in their own eco but its own terms. standards on asb~stos were proposed, re Their entrance into the "elite" political nomic futures, which cumulatively add ducing the standard on allowable levels to culture involves further socialization-into a restoration of confidence in the en of asbestos in the workplace from 2 fibers the uses and pleasures, the problems and tire economy? Or does Congress want to per cubic centimeter, to 0.5 fibers per the risks, of power. The power they now possess raise or keep in place unnecessarily high same measure. More recently, the Na makes them anything but impotent. Yet, rates-a signal that makes the future tional Institute for Occupational Safety their intermediate, pre-elite socialization look bleak? Congress' signal on August and Health has recommended an asbes as wielders of derivative power on the lower 10 was that it was for higher taxes. It tos standard based on O.1 fibers per cubic levels of party and state bureaucracies-can sent the second, and that is the wrong centimeter. However, neither of these scarcely have done other than impress upon one. them the endurance, the "immutability" of proposed standards have been adopted. the Soviet polity and its game rules. FrOm Second, the likelihood of Congress Given everything we know, the present such material, one does not anticipate the passing another tax bill in 1979 is slight. 2.0 standard is clearly unacceptable, and emergence of personalities who will trans There are a number of reasons for this. I have urged that the appropriate Fed form the political system in any fundamen Historically, Congress does not pass tax eral agency propose a standard that will tal way. bills back-to-back, because it feels it assure the health and safety of American Expectancy.-This term admittedly lacks needs more time to see the economic ef precision; if anything, it ls distinguished workers and the families. With a mainly by its crudity. Yet it connotes an fects. Congress usually begins the con stronger standard, the figure of 2 mil important fact, namely, that Soviet citizens, sideration of tax measures in odd-num lion people who will die from asbestos despite their apoliticality and convictions of bered years-the offering of administra and they are people, not just statistics impotence, are strongly oriented toward tion and alternative proposals, public can be greatly reduced. their polity's "outputs." Subjects and not hearings, and so forth-but usually does A particularly tragic aspect of this parochials, they expect things of the state. not consider them in final form until problem is the fact that a large number And herein lies one of the main sources of the following, even-numbered years, of these workers who will die are Fed the stability of the system-but also a source which happen to be election years too. of potential danger, for the edge of expect eral employees. And a great many of ancy can cut both ways. Thus, we are talking about 1980. these are defense employees working in Delivery of expected output, or delivery of Further, as reflected in this year's bill, our country's shipyards. I have contacted the unexpected but welcome good or service, when Congress does act in an even-num each member of the House Armed Serv has been as critical a part of the Soviet mass bered year-the next is 1980-the tax ices Committee, urging that the vetoed experience of governmental performance as changes become effective the succeeding defense authorization bill be amended the deprivations the regime has imposed. The year-which would be 1981. Now, take a high evaluations placed by Soviet citizens on to include a requirement for a study the provision of socialized medical care and look at the tax increases we are going to evaluating present standards of permis universal basic education, as well as on the have between now and 1981 and tell me sible levels of asbestos in the shipyards career and upward mobility opportunities af this is what the Congress wants to sad and the :ieed for asbestos in new ships, forded by the expansion of higher education, dle the taxpayers with. I cannot believe the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of were major stimuli of social support for the 29084 EXTENSIONS OF REMARKS September 12, 1978 regime even in the Stalin years, as mass In performance in meeting the mass expecta nants of a critical tradition among the in terviewing of the refugees of that era demon tions of the Soviet people. Yet, the USSR telligentsia have made the elites-scientific, strated.16 Largesse is scarcely the rationale has no guarantee that it can manage to do technical, and creative-the logical carriers for governmental provision of such services so indefinitely. If circumstances should re of "pure" political dissent, that is, of dissent and opportunities: an industrializing regime duce its output capacity, the expectancies which challenges the system as a whole. needs to provide them in order to develop, built into the political culture, which now This kind of dissent requires the ability to mobilize, and maintain a more "modern" support the regime, could well turn against construct and manipulate abstract ideas, to population and labor force. But the Soviet it. conceptualize political alternatives, to ask population, with a historically low level of The risks inherent in building stabllity on basic questions about the goals of the policy expectancy (or output-orientation), may ex capacity to "deliver" reflect the fact that vir as well as its methods, whether in a "moral perience them as "goods" freely allocated, to tually all the socialist regimes in the Soviet absolutist" or an "instrumental-pragmatic" be balanced against the rigors and depriva orbit-albeit in varying degrees-have moved framework.23 tions of a totalitarian regime. Chalidze spoke "from utopia to pragmatism" as a central The dissenters' prescriptions for change are recently to this point, blaming "ideologues" legitimating principle. Their claim on mass diverse-ranging from Sakharov's advocacy of ' for not informing the population that "the loyalties is rooted, now more than ever be liberal democracy, throug1h Solzhenitsyn's ap payment of pensions or the allocation of new fore, in their ability to "deliver the goods" peal for a benevolent and depoliticized au apartments is not something for which the within a demand structure that they can thoritarianism (the furtherests he deems the government should be thanked, but rather seek to moderate but cannot transform sub current leadership capable of going), to Med something that should be viewed as an obliga stantially or suppress.20 vedev's return to "true" Leninism-but all tion of the government under the Soviet eco The Soviet political culture has been reoresent alternative systems, not simply nomic system." 11 His criticism is no doubt fashioned by history-by the history of the "adjustment" in the polity of today. This well-warranted, but the critical point here system (the blueprint of which ls still so may even be tJhe case with some of the neona is that the ideologues may and probably have much the product of Stalin), by the life his tionalist, "Russite" dissent, which supports suceeded quite well in convincing the popu tories of Soviet citizens, and indeed by the new forms of authoritarian politics as desir lation that the government is to be thanked history of pre-Soviet Tsarist Russia, as well. able in themselves. for such benefits. There is thus the force of inertia behind it, Two points are worth making with regard (The relative modernation of Soviet mass a tremendous inertia which must be taken to the potential of this variety of dissent. expectations despite lifelong exposure to uto into account in any attempt to anticipate First, it involves only a small minority of pian rhetoric also contributes to stab111ty. political change in the USSR, and which those Who belong to functional elites. The Modest but steady improvements in housing, should make us wary of speculations that majority are presumably willing to accept the the avallablllty of consumer durables, in the rely too heavily on an inexorable "logic" of micro-level "exchange" relationship which provision of food, have apparently been suf development of the Soviet system or on the exists between themselves and their poUtical ficient to keep the rank and file from Minsk "necessity" of change due to the difficulty of superiors and whicih assures them of relative and Omsk satisfied with their lot until that carrying out coordinating and integrative affluence and security in return for compe day when "communism achieved" will ban tasks in an increasingly complex USSR. tent service and polttlcal quiescence, though ish scarclty.1a Although, by Western stand The impact of history, as we see it in the It denies them a role in setting goals. ards, Soviet life ls stlll mean and shabby, one political culture it has formed, should not Second, the issues raised by the mlnori ty of of the greatest accomplishments of the re be slighted in answering the questions raised dissenters seem to have Uttle root in, and gime, as "manager" of its subjects• expecta at the start a.bout "generation gaps." Some little resonance with, the concerns of the tions, has been to insure that Western stand of the answers that relate to the short-term masses. Indeed, the absence of a llnk between ards do not become a critical reference prospects for change are implied in this sec the elite and the masses ls one of the weak point.) tion. Explicit answers may be deferred until nesses of the "democratic movement" that This, however, ls only one side of the coin: after we have examined some forces which have enabled the regime to contain it and to expectancy may also prove a source of weak may militate for long-term change-in par be flexible in coping with it. ness. To the degree that I am correct in argu ticular, the various currents of dissent that The specter of dissident members of the ing here that public expectations are a stable have emerged in the last ten years and seem elite helping to generate, and then articulat and important part of Soviet mass political to point toward a differentiation of the po ing, active resentments among the masses ts culture, they can be potentially dangerous in litical culture. one which must at times 'haunt Soviet lead the event that they are abruptly violated. DISSENT: ALTERNATIVE SUBCULTURES ers, but at present the latter have little rea· Recent Soviet history provides us with When the history of the Soviet Union of son to worry about so improbable a develop examples of these dangers. The violent clv11 the 1960's and 1970's is written, dissent will ment.2' disturbances in Novocherkassk in 1962, figure as a major phenomenon. On the other Very different from "programmatic" polit evoked by sudden rises in the cost of food hand, the system's phenomenal stability, its ical dissent, with its alternatives to the cur stuffs the population expected to continue failure to crack or to change in character rent system, are the national-ethnic and re· receiving at relatively stable prices, is a under the assaults of the politically alien Ugious forms of dissent. The issues tJhat these well-known one-and I doubt that any seri ated, will provide an equal amount of grist kinds of dissent raise do concern members of ous student would believe this to have been for the historian's mill. the Soviet masses. At the mass level, "rights" the only such disturbance that has occurred Despite the stability of the system, dissent such as the right to worship, to speak a for such reasons. Andrei Amalrik under has nonetheless demonstrated the rise of given language, to keep one's identification scored precisely these considerations in his differentiated political "subcultures" in the with a given group, to Uve in one's own "1984" essay. USSR, or at least shown that the seeds of "home" within Soviet borders, mean more He argued that working-class irritations such subcultures do exist. If the concrete than the right to choose between electoral and discontent, though real, 'were neutral manifestations of dissent might have been candidates; they are more than "abstrac· ized to a considerable degree by material unpredictable, the emergence of the under tions" that concern the intell1gentsia alone. progress, but speculated that a break in that lying attitudes could have been foreseen. Here, there is a commonality of concern progress, "an abrupt slowdown in the growth The manifold problems arising from a pol that links dissident elttes and the masses in of prosperity, a halt or a move backwards, icy of coordinating the relations between the a common enterprise-the protection and ad· would evoke such strong outburst of dissatis polity and the specialized functional sectors faction, combined with violence, as would vancement of national and religious identity. previously have been lmposslble.10 of an increasingly complex system- Le., be But such demands differ from those of the tween apparat and "functional elites"-in primarily "political" dissenters in that they Other evidence, of a ·different sort, points accordance with predominantly command to the powerful effect of the socialization could for the most part be accommodated rather than exchange criteria 21 have worked processes in developing a certain level of without major change in Soviet political "expectancy" among Soviet citizens. Some to alienate some of those elites and even to structures, although they would imply cause them to deny the legitimacy of the changes in the substance of politics. In the Soviet emigre arrivals In Israel, it seems, find system. the adjustment to a life and economy with ethnic and rellglous spheres, what the dis· less structured and formalized allocative However, a complementary phenomenon, senters are demanding, essentially, are im· pinpointed by Rudolf Tokes in a recent munities, not from Soviet law as it is written, mechanisms difficult. Even professionals 22 alienated from the Soviet system-artists, essay, complicates any projections one but from the systematic violation of legal doctors, scientists, etc.-seem in retrospect might make on the basis of this alienation: guarantees that has been an operative prin· to have been "well-adjusted" in the sense while the regime since the mid-1960's has ciple of the system in action. that their expectations with regard to a lost legitimacy in the eyes of many members It is an interesting irony that the rise of guaranteed market for their canvases and of functional elites, its legitimacy has prob dissident political subcultures around is services, guaranteed facilities for their work, ably grown for the masses as a whole. As sues of ethnicity and religion is, to a signifi etc., had been met in the USSR, so that they suggested above, the main reason for this cant degree, the product of Soviet mob111za found the absence of these advantages in is very likely that the regime has "delivered t1on successes over the past fifty years. Soviet Israel a source of difficulty. the goods" in material terms, thereby re modernization, a! manifested particularly in Today, as Western nations face severe eco sponding to the "secularized" criteria of -economic development, in the extension of nomic oroblems and domestic turmoil, the legitimacy by which the masses measure gov universal basic education and literacy, even Soviet Union, as usual, seems quite stable ernmental performance. in the development of the state adminis no doubt owing, in part, to an acceptable Dissent, then, has been generally-though trative networtc tt-elf, has moved the non not totally-an enterprise of the elite. Oc Rus.sian natioba1tt1es far from their pre Footnotes at end o·f article. cupational status, education, and the rem- dominantly "parochial" political culture of September 12, 1978 EXTENSIONS OF REMARKS 29085 Tsarist times. Among the ethnic masses, and their presumptive successors, he finds should develop and be prolonged to the there has developed a subject culture in "no strong grounds for believing that they point of excessive strain on economic and hu which they a.re concerned with government are of major significance." 28 In my own view, man resources (despite the popular support "outputs," and at the same time at least any likely newcomers to the Politburo in such a "defensive" war would initially en the germs of a participant culture have been the next few years have already been suffi gender), or if a change in the Middle East planted among the ethnic elites. Could peas ciently exposed to the mass and elite variants situation should lead to a large-scale in ant illiterates "mobilize" in the way the of the political culture to guarantee that volvement of troops and materiel abroad, Crimean Tatars have done? Similarly, could they wlll resemble their seniors. It ls, after "history" is likely to reassert itself, posing traditional agrarian populationi:, Russian or all, the only political culture they know, critical questions about the viability of the non-Russian, organize the networks of com and given their ages, they began learning system under stress. munication and action in defense of religious it in the Stalin era, have witnessed its dur Then, aspects of the poll tical culture identity that groups ranging from the Evan ab111ty in the Khrushchev years, and seen it which have been sources of stability could gelical-Baptists to the Lithuanian Catholics support the regime since 1964. work instead to weaken the system. A re have? The answer is clearly negative. But the The extreme centralization of power in the gime which rests on the apolitically of the process of modernization has distributed to Soviet system-a fact inexplicably overlooked masses in "good" times cannot be sure of national and religious groups, elite and mass by many whose reading of "popular" moods the continuing support of apolitical masses alike, a modicum of resources for initiating leads them to expect change-provides an in bad times. A regime secure by virtue of unconventional political action. These re additional guarantee of continuity. Even if convictions of political impotence on the sources, diffused and limited as they are, we had strong evidence of "generational" fis part of the masses cannot be confident of can hardly be compared to the centralized sures in the mass political culture, there ls security if its coercive resources, which in coercive resources at the disposal of the re no reason to assume that Politburo (and the final analysis insure that impotence, are gime, but they are more than nothing. They Central Committee) recruitment policies overstretched to deal with foreign enemies. have enabled mixed populations of elite and must reflect them. The regime does not en And a regime which has, for all its ideological masses to develop a shared political language gage in random sampling to seek its suc rhetoric, gained support largely through a and consciousness around certain issues of cessors. Those successors are the survivors of thoroughly "secular" satisfaction of the joint interest; to break, at leat partially, with a process spanning their prior party-state everyday expectations of most of its sub the apoliticality and feeling of impotence of career, during which those noted by their jects, can lose such support should the ex the dominant political culture; and to assert seniors for incompetence, failures, or mani pectations grow to the point where they expectations not officially "legitimized." festations of heterodox ideas and "instabil could no longer be met. They, like the dissidents whose focus ls on ity" have gradually been sifted out. The sur FOOTNOTES the broader issues of political structure, have vivors are consequently all the more likely lo See Alex Inkeles and Raymond A. Bauer, contributed to the restoration of "politics" to lack such "negative" characteristics and The Soviet Citizen, Cambridge, Mass., Har in the USSR. to be more like their superiors than not. vard University Press, 1961. PRESENT AND FUTURE Moreover, until those superiors themslves lr Op. cit., p. 19. The past decade has witnessed change in move on, they can still demote and remove 18 Paul Hollander deals perceptively with the internal landscape of Soviet political life, their presumptive successors. They retain the moderation of mass expectations in So change that has emerged, not because of, the power to do so, and they wm use that viet and American Society: A Comparison, but despite the regime's preferences. Mani power. New York, Oxford University Press, 1973, pp. fested in ways ranging from nonviolent dem There is still a further reason for being 338 ff. onstrations on Pushkin Square to the crea chary of placing undue importance on gen lo Amalrik, Zoe. cit., p. 61. tion of the now rich literature of dissent, erational differences in the context of the ~o For a discussion of such "secularization" it amounts to an open assumption by a small political succession. "Leaders" are by defini in a related context, see this author's "From but committed stratum of people of a "par tion atypical, unrepresentative of the age 'Utopia' to the 'Pragmatic' Society: Social ticipant" orientation toward politics. In no groups from which they are drawn. This is Consequences of Economic Reform in East sense, however, has this change been legiti so in the Soviet Union as well as elsewhere, ern Europe," Revue d'Etudes Comparatives mized and incorporated into the system. The and there ls no reason to assume that 1t will Est-ouest (Paris), March 1975, pp. 107-41 boundaries of the system have remained sta change. (Many Western scholars have by (paper originally presented at the Interna ble despite the change in the landscape dis now spent substantial periods in the USSR, tional Slavic Conference in Baniff, Canada, sent has been contained, though not rooted especially in universities. September 1974). out.25 Possibly one can read the Soviet future 21 An earlier piece by the author in this Various analyses during the same decade there, but it is not written on the faces of journal dealt with the relevance of different have offered differing diagnoses of the So the "typical" students with whom one may modes of integration to the potential for viet system's health. These have ranged from have a good deal of contact, but nther on political dissent. See "Disssent in a Complex prescriptions that the system must change those of the Komsomol activists, with whom Society: The Soviet Case," Problems of Com its ways or die 28 to conclusions that, af one has rather less contact overall. munism, March-April, 1973, pp. 40-52. fiicted though it undoubtedly is by various On balance, then, the Politburo of 1980 or 22 See Rudolf L. Tokes, "Dissent: The maladies to which any complex system may thereabouts should resemble in its dy Politics for Change in the USSR," in Henry be subject, lt still "works" effectively enough namics-both in the "united" face it pre W. Morton and Rudolf L. Tokes, Eds., So to rule out any diagnosis of terminal ill sents to the world and in the bureaucratic viet Politics and Society in the 1970's, New ness.21 Certainly, there have been grounds for log-rolling, interest brokerage, and in-fight York, Free Press, 1974, p. 8. both kinds of diagnoses, but more, it seems ing it hides-the Politburo of 1975. This ls 23 These are Tokes's terms, op. cit. 2 for the latter. not to say that a "1980-model" Politburo • Barghoorn
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