Output 4.5 - Work Package 4 Demographic Change in Lucerne Seetal (Central Switzerland): Short Regional Report

Output 4.5 - Work Package 4 Demographic change in Lucerne Seetal (Central Switzerland): short regional report

Interface Policy studies Research Consulting (IIPS)

Prepared by: Daniel Matti, March 2011

1 1 Introduction

Short regional report has been prepared as part of WP4 which includes demographic analysis of selected model areas. Analysis is divided into a general basic analysis which uses indicators as a core input and an in-depth analysis performed through inter- views and focus groups of model regions with a selection of specific focus. Data in this report captures six topics which describe demographic change and regions more into details: territorial organisation, geographical situation, natural conditions and housing, demography including demographic projections, economy, tourism, agriculture and public services.

Each short regional report consists of three chapters: first explains why certain region has been chosen, second includes a short overview of short data part introducing main geographical characteristics of the region with the focus on demography – situation and projections, socio-economic situation including basic expectations for the future and connectivity and public services. The last chapter of the report uncovers key impacts of demographic change in the region as communicated during focus groups.

1.1 Background for selection of model region

Data on demographic change will be made available in the fourth of eight work packages. The Lucerne Seetal region is one of two Swiss model regions involved in the DEMOCHANGE project. This short regional report offers an overview of the Seetal’s regional profile and key data relating to its demographic change.Also provided is a general report outlining the data of all the countries involved.

There now follows a regional profile of the Lucerne Seetal comprising an outline of its geographic (section 2.1), demographic (2.2) and socioeconomic (2.3) situation, plus a description of its service provision situation. This is followed by a summary of the current and potential impacts of demographic change (3).

WP4 Demographic change in Author | Contact: Lucerne Seetal: Daniel Matti short regional report [email protected] | www.demochange.org Date: March 2011

2 2 Regional profile of the Lucerne Seetal

2.1 Geographic situation

Area size and land use change

The Lucerne Seetal is located in the north-east of Canton Lucerne in Central Switzerland. It is characterised by gently rolling hills and has a surface area of 108.6 km2 (not counting the lakes) which, in 2006, was mainly composed of built environment (10.0%), agricultural land (69.4%) and woodland/forestry (20.1%, including wooded land).

Administrative framework

The Seetal planning region comprises nine political municipalities; it forms part of the Hochdorf administrative district and is one of Canton Lucerne’s eight planning regions.1 Although the administrative districts were abolished when Canton Lucerne was reor- ganised in 2007, they continue to exist as statistical entities without administrative duties.

Brief description of planning system

The Seetal’s spatial planning activities come within the remit of the Spatial Development, Business Development and Geoinformation agency (rawi), which forms part of Canton Lucerne’s Construction, Environment and Economic Department (BUWD). The Cantonal Development Plan is the strategic management tool used to decide spatial planning matters. Even so, the canton’s legislative programme and the federation’s agglomeration programme both give directions on prioritisation. The Seetal’s regional development agency is the cantonal planning region under the name Idee Seetal AG. This coordinates joint inter-municipal tasks without adding a fourth layer of bureaucracy. The municipalities are free to decide which regional development agency they want to belong to.

The implementation of Switzerland’s New Regional Policy (NRP) in Canton Lucerne is viewed as part of overall regional policy making. The current focuses of the canton’s spatial planning activities are on planning for the main areas of development, and implementing the agglomeration programme and the NRP.

1 The Seetal planning region does not includes the municipality of Eschenbach, which, from a functional standpoint, is often counted as being in the Seetal but officially belongs to the Lucerne planning region (see www.seetal.ch). This report applies the name Seetal to the planning region.

WP4 Demographic change in Author | Contact: Lucerne Seetal: Daniel Matti short regional report [email protected] | www.demochange.org Date: March 2011

3 2.2 Demography – situation and projections

Population changes

In 2009 the permanent resident population of the Seetal stood at 22,645, an increase of 17.9% on 1994. Apart from Aesch, whose population has stagnated, the municipalities have all grown in population since 1994, especially Römerswil, Ballwil, Hohenrain and Hochdorf (see following illustration).1

Figure 1: Population development in Seetal 1994-2009

The birth and death rates are gradually coming together, as shown in the following illustration. The birth rate will henceforth hardly bear on Canton Lucerne's population figures. 2

Birth rate Death rate

Figure 2: Birth and death rates in Seetal 1994-2009

The consolidated birth rate of 1.54 in Canton Lucerne in 2008 was slightly higher than the Swiss average of 1.48. Switzerland's birth rate in 2050 is set to be 1.52.3

1 Hitzkirch merged with six other municipalities in 2009. The change in population size takes into account the municipalities that merged. 2 A variety of information in this report, especially that relating to forecasts, is available only at a cantonal, rather than planning region, level. A remark will be made if cantonal information is used. 3 According to an average scenario A-00-2010. No cantonal forecasts available.

WP4 Demographic change in Author | Contact: Lucerne Seetal: Daniel Matti short regional report [email protected] | www.demochange.org Date: March 2011

4 Age structure by groups and projections of age structure by groups

Canton Lucerne's age distribution is changing. The proportion of the population aged 65 and over is set to rise from today's 15.9% to 28.1% in 2050. Over the same period the proportion of young people (those under 20) is set to decline from today's 22.0% to 17.7% (see following population pyramid).1

male female male female

Figure 3: Population pyramid in Nidwalden 2009 and 2050

Households

The average number of persons per private household in Seetal was 2.73 in 2000 (2.40 in Canton Lucerne). It was 2.29 in 2010 and is set to fall further to 2.09 in 2030.

Education structure

The education and training situation in the Seetal in 2000 was as follows: 26.6% of 25-64 year-olds had received no post-compulsory education (ISCED 1+2), 44.4% had followed some kind of Secondary II course (ISCED 3+4) and 13.1% had followed some kind of course at tertiary level (ISCED 5+6).

Projections net natural and net migration

Canton Lucerne's population stood at 372,263 in 2009. This figure is set to rise to 400,000 until 2035. After that it looks like stagnating and declining slightly to 393,000 by 2050.2 The current surplus of births will turn into a deficit from around 2035. The canton's changing population figures over the next 25 years or so are mainly a product of positive inward migration from abroad (see following illustration).3

1 According to the BFS, AR-00-2005/09 scenario, 2009-2050. 2 Only cantonal data available. Source: Swiss Federal Statistical Office (BFS). Until 2009: balance of permanent resident population by canton. From 2010: A-00-2005/09 scenario. 3 Forecasts for Seetal unavailable (canton only).

WP4 Demographic change in Author | Contact: Lucerne Seetal: Daniel Matti short regional report [email protected] | www.demochange.org Date: March 2011

5 Inward migration per 1‘000 residents

Birth surplus per 1’000 residents

Figure 4: Births and inward migration in Seetal / Canton Lucerne 1994-2050

2.3 Socio - economic situation including basic expectations for the future

Economic structure

The Seetal's economy is characterised by small and medium enterprises embracing a wide range of sectors. In terms of advan- tages, the region is conveniently central, is an attractive place to live, and its structures are well regulated. The Seetal is slightly below the average for Canton Lucerne in terms of financial performance and has marginally higher-than- average taxes. Canton Lucerne is a net receiver in the Swiss financial equalisation/burden compensation system (2010: CHF 873 per head of population), and almost all the municipalities in the Seetal received funding in 2010 through the inter-cantonal resource/burden equalisation system.1

Employed/unemployed persons

Unemployment in the Seetal in 2008 stood at just 1.3% (June 2010: 2.1%).2

Employment by sectors

15.0% of the economically active population works in the first sector, 39.1% in the second and 45.9% in the third sector (2005) (total in 2008: 9944 persons). The cantonal gross domestic product per head of population in 2008 was CHF 57,081 (Switzerland: CHF 70,350). The sectors generating the most employment are goods manufacturing, agriculture, retail and education.

Commuting and job market

In 2000, 50.0% of the working population commuted out of the Seetal to work.

1 Exceptions: Ballwil: burden compensation only. Eschenbach is a net contributor to the equalisation scheme. 2 No information available on vacancies in the Seetal.

WP4 Demographic change in Author | Contact: Lucerne Seetal: Daniel Matti short regional report [email protected] | www.demochange.org Date: March 2011

6 Settlement patterns

The Seetal's built environment is decentralised in nature and predominantly concentrated along the main Lucerne-Lenzburg/Woh- len axis. The Seetal positions itself as a steadily growing residential location – the Seetal residential valley – which is improving in terms of both quality and long-term sustainability.1 Hochdorf is promoted as the regional centre, with Hitzkirch and Eschenbach as sub-centres. Regional business focuses are concentrated along the length of the valley and at the two main development points (ESPs) Hochdorf/Römerswil and Hitzkirch/Ermensee.

Housing

In 2000 there were 5257 purely residential dwellings stemming from a much earlier age than the Swiss average.2 In 2010, 0.56% of the dwellings were unoccupied (Hochdorf municipality: 0.34 %). 81.7% of the dwellings are owned by private individuals, and the proportion of owner occupiers is 47.4%.3 In 2000, 50.1% of the dwellings were let, and the average monthly rent was CHF 1023. The average floor area per resident in 2000 was 43 m2.

Tourism

From a tourism point of view, the Seetal relies on gentle, recreational leisure pursuits with little in the way of tourist facilities. Most of the tourism consists of visitors on day trips and is of little economic significance regionally.

Agriculture

In 2008 there were 513 agricultural enterprises in the Seetal (2001: 575) employing 1492 persons (2001: 1684). 84.6% were primary occupation enterprises. The average size of the farms in the former Hochdorf administrative district was 16.0 ha (17.5 ha for primary occupation enterprises). The percentage of farms certified as organic (4.1 %) is lower than the Swiss average (9.8 %), and the farms are smaller. Natural and seeded grassland dominates agricultural land use, none of which is within a mountainous zone.

1 Development is governed by the 2008 Seetal Regional Development Plan. 2 41.3% of the buildings in the Seetal are up to 30 years old (Switzerland: 24.9%) 3 Owner occupiers are owners who live in the property they own (on a sole, joint or condominium basis).

WP4 Demographic change in Author | Contact: Lucerne Seetal: Daniel Matti short regional report [email protected] | www.demochange.org Date: March 2011

7 2.4 Connectivity and public services

Connectivity to the region

In terms of transport links, the Seetal is centrally located and easy to reach despite having no motorway access and just one regional railway line. The opportunities in terms of work, leisure, recreation and culture in Lucerne, Zug (car, public transport) and, to an extent, Zurich and its environs (car) are a commuting distance away from Hochdorf. Nowhere is very far within the region: Hochdorf, as the regional centre, is generally never more than 20 minutes' drive.

Social services

The Seetal's public service provision is good. As with many other rural regions, the Seetal's healthcare provisions are more restricted than in the rest of Switzerland (14 doctors, 8 dentists, 231 Spitex/homecare clients, 2 pharmacies, one health centre planned for Hochdorf). That said, the canton's proximity to Lucerne (and Sursee, Zug and Muri/AG) means that obtaining good quality medical health care is not an issue. With 13.3 places in old people's homes and nursing homes per 1000 inhabitants (2008), sociomedical care provision here is good (Swiss average: 11.8).

Education

At the beginning of 2009, 3229 children resident in the Seetal were attending one of the canton's schools. The largest educational/training institutions are the Seetal Cantonal School in Baldegg and the Inter-cantonal Police College in Hitzkirch. Kindergarten attendance in Canton Lucerne was an average 1.3 years in 2008 (Switzerland: 1.9 years), and compulsory school attendance was virtually 100%.

Telecommunications

Telecommunications in the Seetal are good. In 2008, 79% of Central Swiss households had access to the internet, 81.4% of Swiss households possessed a personal computer, and 35.6% residents in Switzerland had subscribed to high-speed broadband internet by the end of 2009 (OECD: 23.3%).1

Culture and social life

While the Seetal’s cultural offering could be characterised as average (e.g. regional cultural centres in Hochdorf and Hitzkirch and a gallery in Aesch), it offers a dynamic range of clubs and associations. The Seetal’s residents are able to take full advantage of their proximity to Lucerne and its vibrant cultural life.

1 No cantonal information available.

WP4 Demographic change in Author | Contact: Lucerne Seetal: Daniel Matti short regional report [email protected] | www.demochange.org Date: March 2011

8 3 Key impacts of demographic change

Demographic change is expected to have a range of consequences for society, for the economy and for the environment. These consequences will differ in terms of scope as well as scale. With the size of the population of the Lucerne Seetal region set to continue increasing for the next two decades at least, the most important consequence of change in the region's demographics from the point of view of the stakeholders involved in the DEMOCHANGE project will be felt not so much in the size of the population, but in its age structure.

Growing and aging population in Lucerne Seetal

Canton Lucerne's population is ageing at more or less the same rate as the Swiss average: as outlined above, the proportion of over 65 year-olds is set to rise from today's 15.9% to 28.1% in 2050 at the same time as the proportion of young people is set to fall from 22.0% to 17.7%.

A challenge for residential services

The ageing of the population in the Lucerne Seetal region is expected, in particular, to result in changes in the demand for residential space and ancillary residential services. Numerous municipalities in the Lucerne Seetal region have already foreseen the changes and implemented appropriate provisions of their own. A number of municipalities such as Hochdorf, Hohenrain and Römerswil have also launched additional initiatives aimed at identifying more specifically the residential needs of their elderly population and establishing, in the near future, appropriate residential offerings in partnership with investors. The DEMOCHANGE project is providing assistance with these needs analyses. Households in the Lucerne Seetal region will decrease in size, while their number will increase. Providing suitable residential space for the population – especially the elderly – is expected to pose a spatial planning challenge.

Focusing on elderly people?

Marketing activities by the municipalities of the Lucerne Seetal region are focusing strongly on young families, the number of which is set to fall as a proportion of the overall population. The region is seeking actively to attract young families by, for in- stance, publicising the availability of appropriate accommodation, such as new single-family homes. The possibility of establishing residential zones reserved for detached dwellings ("villas") is also under discussion in three of the region's municipalities. The idea is that exclusive residential zones such as this would attract high-earning residents and thus generate taxes that would flow into the regional economy. An approaching challenge for the municipalities will be to start widening their focus to include the over 65 age group and their needs. Ancillary residential services – such as social or nursing care, domestic services, assisted transport, the arranging of social get-togethers and organisation of courses – might represent a potential source of revenues for the regional economy. It might help the region fund the provision of suitable accommodation for the elderly. Another challenge facing the Lucerne Seetal region is the canton's structuring of its care funding. As things stand, the rules do not provide any incentive for community engagement in terms of accommodation for the elderly.

WP4 Demographic change in Author | Contact: Lucerne Seetal: Daniel Matti short regional report [email protected] | www.demochange.org Date: March 2011

9 Migration from abroad

Canton Lucerne's demographics over the coming decades will be influenced by inward migration from abroad (see above).The proportion of residents originating from abroad will rise in the Lucerne Seetal region, too. At present, inward foreign migration to the Lucerne Seetal region remains comparatively modest (the proportion of foreigners in the resident population of the Lucerne Seetal planning region was 12.1% in 2009, compared to the Swiss average of 22%). The importance of an up-to-the-minute migration and integration policy ought, therefore, to rise in the Lucerne Seetal region, not least from an economic standpoint (such as the need for a qualified workforce).

Bibliography

- Bundesamt für Statistik der Schweiz (BFS), 2007. Szenarien zur Bevölkerungsentwicklung der Kantone 2005-2050. Kanton Luzern. BFS. Neuchâtel. - Bundesamt für Statistik der Schweiz (BFS), 2009. Gesundheitsdienste und Personal. Ambulante Dienste. Available at: [Accessed 4 March 2011] - Bundesamt für Statistik der Schweiz (BFS), 2010. Gemeindetypologie der Schweiz von 2000. Available at: [Accessed 4 March 2011] - Bundesamt für Statistik der Schweiz (BFS), 2010. Regionalporträts. Available at: [Accessed 4 March 2011] - Bundesamt für Statistik der Schweiz (BFS), 2010. Szenarien zur Bevölkerungsentwicklung in der Schweiz 2010-2060. BFS. Neuchâtel. - Bundesamt für Statistik der Schweiz (BFS), 2010. Zukünftige Bevölkerungsentwicklung der Schweiz. Available at: [Accessed 4 March 2011] - Kanton Luzern, 2010. Daten online. Analyseregionen des Kantons Luzern. Available at: < http://www.lustat.ch/index/daten_on- line/analyseregionen.htm> [Accessed 4 March 2011] - Kanton Luzern, 2010. LUSTAT Jahrbuch Kanton Luzern 2010. LUSTAT. Luzern. - Kanton Luzern, 2009. Kantonaler Richtplan 2009. Available at: [Accessed 4 March 2011] - Staatssekretariat für Wirtschaft (seco), 2010. Schweizerische Arbeitsmarktstatistik. Available at: [Accessed 4 March 2011)

WP4 Demographic change in Author | Contact: Lucerne Seetal: Daniel Matti short regional report [email protected] | www.demochange.org Date: March 2011

10 Work Package WP 4 SHORT REGIONAL REPORTS - DATA PART

WP4 Demographic change in Author | Contact: Lucerne Seetal: Daniel Matti short regional report [email protected] | www.demochange.org Date: March 2011

2006 2009 2000 2008

8 118 124 109 121 240 42.0 (CH) 133 * 2000-2009 1999-2009 1999-2009 1994-2009 Seetal

42,197 *

2009 2006 2008 2000 2009 2007

276 148 30 * 44.0 (CH) 525 * 124 * 121 * 1999-2009 1999-2009 45,708 19,177

Nidwalden

2008 2010 2008 2008 2008 81 512 104 132 44 * 30.7 126 * 158 * 156 * 2004-2008 2005-2009 2005-2009 (SLO) Škofja 2005-2008 15,495 * Loka Hills

2011 2008 2008 2008 2008 28 779 104 33 * 42.1 126 * 163 * 156 * 164 * 2004-2008 2005-2009 2005-2009 (SLO) Upper 2005-2008 15,495 * Gorenjska 2006 2009 2001 2007

56 44 200 131 23.0 212 * South 1991-2001 Model 1992-2007 33,791 * Tyrolean Tyrolean

Region (I) 2008 2008 2001 2008

(I) 82 38 111 190 100 100 49.2 100 * 1991-2001 2009-2010 2009-2010 2004-2008 Langa 18,614 Astigiana Territory Housing 2009 2009 2009 2001 2009 39 130 135 96 * 36.8 101 * 3,263 Aosta Valley Valley 2001-2006 2007-2009 2009-2010 1995-2009 32,784 region (I) Economy, employment Economy, 100-138 * 128-153 * 2011 2011 2011 2009 2010 2001 2007 2001

34 48 (A) 39 * 145 * 5,421 142 * 36.1 * 1997-2007 2,488 * Pongau 25,700 * - Lungau Pinzgau - 365,667 * 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 85 46 330 102 121 44.6 96 * 100 * 1,012 2004-2008 2004-2008 2004-2008 1993-2007 23,483 Parten -

District of Garmisch- kirchen (D) kirchen 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 19 103 133 140 150 44.2 97 * 3,349 100 * 2004-2008 2004-2008 2004-2008 1993-2007 27,957

Allgäu (D)

2 Model Region Area size, km² Average price €/m² for Average house, index first year/ last year in STS GVA/person or GDP/ GVA/person person in € (abs. number) Indicator Density of population, inhabitants per km² Share of mountains (%) Number of dwellings, index first year/last year in STS living area, Average m² per person price €/m² for Average apt, index first year/ last year in STS or GDP/ GVA/person person in €, index first year/last year in LTS Average purchase Average prices of land, €/m Summary table of data part

WP4 Demographic change Compiled by PP6 UPIRS in the Alpine space: Barbara Černič Mali ([email protected]) summary table of data part Naja Marot ([email protected]) [email protected] | www.demochange.org

12 1999 1994 2009 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009

sector)

sector) sector) rd st nd 6.3 7.6 2.9 129 285 (3 (CH) (1 (2 1994-2009 2001-2010 Seetal 26,032

83,600 28 15 15 2005 1999 1994 2008 2010 2005 2008 2005

sector)

sector) nd sector) 4.5 6.5 1.8 nd 369 rd (CH) (2 2001-2010 (2 95,543 40,794 (3 7 9 Nidwalden 10

1998 1997 2008 2010 2002 2009 2009 2008 4.3 2.6 110 135 16.8 2005-2008 2005-2010 10 (F) (SLO) 23 (C) Škofja 14 (G) 27,869 41,407 Loka Hills

1998 1997 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2008 89 4.0 117 -1.5 -3.6 9 (G) 27 (I) (SLO) Upper 18 (C) 25,983 21,522 2000-2003 2005-2010 Gorenjska

1999 2007 2008 2001 2001 2001 2009 1995

8.6 2.4 5.7 24 * 19 * 107 149 * South 1997-2007 1997-2010 Model 11,147

72,722 * 26 (G&I) Tyrolean Tyrolean Region (I) (avg.) (avg.) 2008 2001 2008 2008 2008 2009

(I) 3.7 55 * 6 (F) -11.1 7,117 1991-2001 -8.9 * 25 (C) Langa 27,869 54 (A) * Astigiana 1995-1999 1991-1994 1999 2009 2007 2009 2009 2009 2009 1994 Demography 91 3.2 184 -1.5 -2.0 Aosta Valley Valley 1995-2009 2004-2007 16 (F) 10 (C) 57,475 127,466 region (I) 11 (G&O) 11 (avg.) (avg.) 2007 2009 2001 2001 2001 2010 (A) 6.3 7.2 6.9 * 17 (I) 109 * 144 * 1996-2007 2004-2009 15 (C) 14 (G)

Pongau 183,781 25,700 * - Lungau Pinzgau - 1981-1991 1971-1981 1998 2007 2008 2008 2008 2009 1993

81 4.2 131 -1.2 -1.1 1998-2008 1993-2007 16 (I) * 49,939 86,305 Parten - 22 (Q) * 14 (G) * District of Garmisch- kirchen (D) kirchen 1998 2008 2007 2008 2008 2008 2009 1993 3.5 0.5 133 57 * 0.95 1993-2007 1998-2008 55,970 31 (C) * 12 (Q) * 15 (G) * 467,969 Allgäu (D) rd - Model Region year in LTS year in LTS nd st most important nd most important sec - st Indicator Population develop ment (abs. number) Unemployment rate (%) Natural increase / 1000 inhabitants per 2 year, GVA or GDP/em - GVA ployed persons in € (abs. number) or GDP/em - GVA ployed pers. in €, index first year/last year in LTS Unemployed persons, index first year/last year in LTS Share of employed in 1 Share of employed in 2 Share of employed 3 most important sector in % (NACE code) Natural increase / 1000 inhabitants per 1 year, sector in % (NACE code) tor in % (NACE code)

2009 2009 2004 2008 1994 1999 2004 2.9 1.8 112 78 * 86 * 3.7 * 3.1 * 0.8 * (CH) 113 * 113 142 * 10.0 * 1.54 * 1994-2008 1994-2008 1994-2008 1999-2009 1994-2008 Seetal

2009 2009 2004 2008 1994 1999 2004 2.5 6.4 4.0 2.3 3.1 113 79 * 1.43 10.1 93 * (CH) 122 * 101 * 1999-2008 1999-2009 1999-2009 1999-2009 2004-2008

Nidwalden

2009 2008 2003 2008 1997 1998 2003 75 90 2.3 4.4 5.1 5.4 1.4 104 107 154 -1.8 1.64 * 1993-2008 1993-2008 1993-2008 1993-2008 1993-2008 (SLO) Škofja Loka Hills

2008 2003 1997 1998 2008 2003 2009 73 82 97 13 6.6 1.1 121 136 -3.6 -2.2 15.6 1.64 * 1993-2008 1993-2008 1993-2008 1993-2008 1993-2008 (SLO) Upper Gorenjska 2009 2008 1995 1999 2004 2009 2004

82 88 1.2 4.8 9.7 7.2 6.6 112 102 120 -0.5 South 1995-2009 1995-2009 1995-2009 1995-2009 1995-2009 Model 1.60 * Tyrolean Tyrolean Region (I) (avg.) (avg.) (avg.) (avg.) 2009 2009

(I) 59 98 83 5.7 3.4 4.1 100 100 -7.7 3.4 * -11.0 1994-2009 1994-2009 1994-2009 1994-2009 1994-2009 Langa Astigiana 1991-1994 1995-1999 2005-2009 2005-2009 2008 2009 1994 1999 2004 2009 2004 Age structure 6 7 66 98 99 4.3 3.6 0.3 111 117 -0.3 1.47 Aosta Valley Valley 1994-2009 1994-2009 1994-2009 1994-2009 1994-2009 region (I) (avg.) (avg.) (avg.) (avg.) (avg.) (avg.) (avg.) (avg.) (avg.) 2009 1981 70 72 (A) 0.3 2.2 2.7 5.8 106 139 136 -2.0 -0.3 1.39 * Pongau - Lungau Pinzgau - 1981-2009 1981-2009 1981-2009 1981-2009 1981-2009 2002-2007 1981-1991 1991-2001 2002-2007 1991-2001(avg.) 2008 2008 1993 1998 2003 2008 2003 94 96 84 0.4 2.5 3.7 0.8 105 128 -4.9 -3.9 2000-2010 2000-2010 2000-2010 2000-2010 2000-2010 30.71 * Parten - District of Garmisch- kirchen (D) kirchen 2008 2008 1993 1998 2003 2008 2003 95 85 1.5 6.0 2.8 4.6 109 106 122 -1.7 -2.1 2000-2010 2000-2010 2000-2010 2000-2010 2000-2010 35.76 * Allgäu (D) Model Region year in LTS rd year in LTS year in LTS year in LTS st nd rd Indicator Total fertility rate Total first index old, year 0-14 year/last year in LTS 15-24, index first year/ last year in LTS 25-49, index first year/ last year in LTS 50-64, index first year/ last year in LTS Net migration / 1000 inhabitants per year, last year in LTS Net migration / 1000 inhabitants per year, 1 Net migration / 1000 inhabitants per year, 2 Net migration / 1000 inhabitants per year, 3 Natural increase / 1000 inhabitants per last year in LTS year, Natural increase / 1000 inhabitants per 3 year, 65-79, index first year/ last year in LTS

2009 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2005 92 37 125 106 2.73 (CH) 129 * 2,117 1,184 2,419 1,466 8,351 113 * 113 23.2 * 160 * 1994-2008 1990-2000 1990-2000 1990-2000 1990-2000 1990-2005 1999-2009 Seetal

2009 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2009 97 114 22.7 2.26 (CH) 26 * 83 * 125 * 5,195 4,804 2,199 123 * 104 * 1999-2009 1990-2000 1990-2000 1990-2000 1990-2000 2005-2009 2004-2008 1,945 15,153

Nidwalden 2008 2008 2002 2002 2002 2002 2002 2002 97 95 110 109 108 125 25.0 22.0 3.10 2,394 2,352 2,457 3,196 (SLO) 1991-2002 1991-2002 1993-2008 1991-2002 1991-2002 1991-2002 Škofja 12,821 Loka Hills 2008 2008 2002 2002 2002 2002 2002 2002 95 95 110 106 108 135 20.0 27.0 2.70 1,958 1,488 1,723 1,645 7,832 1991-2002 1991-2002 1993-2008 1991-2002 1991-2002 1991-2002 (SLO) Upper Gorenjska 2009 2009 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 85 146 102 124 726 155 810 756 162 26.3 19.3 2.70 1,352 4,232 South 1995-2009 1995-2009 1995-2009 1986-2008 1986-2008 1986-2008 Model Tyrolean Tyrolean Region (I) 2009 2009 2001 2001 2001 2001 2009 2009 (I) 91 95 113 106 607 102 952 390 103 2.09 16.4 50.7 3,382 1994-2009 2003-2009 1994-2009 1991-2001 1991-2001 1991-2001 Langa 1,213 * Astigiana 2009 2009 2001 2001 2001 2001 2009 2009 Households 99 98 116 128 142 20.9 32.0 106 * Aosta 2.15 * Valley Valley 2004-2009 2004-2009 1994-2009 1991-2001 1991-2001 1991-2001 18,586 7,294 * 10,246 * 15,486 * 59,381 * region (I) (avg.) 2009 2009 2001 2001 2001 2001 2001 2001

(A) 252 75 * 26.7 25.0 112 * 112 144 * 150 * 170 * 3.00 * 1971-2001 1971-2001 1971-2001 1971-2001 Pongau 17,848 * 12,087 * 17,249 * 12,683 * 67,443 * - Lungau Pinzgau - 1981-2009 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008

92 110 94 * 117 1.84 21.0 37.0 137 * 127 * 2000-2010 1993-2008 1993-2008 1993-2008 1993-2008 1993-2008 46,900 5,600 * Parten -

4,900 * 19,200 * 15,500 * District of Garmisch- kirchen (D) kirchen 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 98 89 117 134 133 129 23.0 2.03 32.7 2000-2010 1993-2008 1993-2008 1993-2008 1993-2008 1993-2008 89,900 27,800 79,800 24,700

231,300 Allgäu (D) - Model Region more, index first and year/last year in LTS Indicator Number of households (abs. number) 80 Child dependency ratio (population aged 0-14 / 15-64)*100 ra - dependency Old-age tio (population aged 65 and more/ 15-64)*100 Number of house holds, index first year/ last year in LTS size (abs. Average number) size, index first Average year/last year in LTS 1 member (abs. number) index first 1 member, year/last year in LTS 2 members, index first year/last year in LTS 3 members (abs. number) 3 members, index first year/last year in LTS 2 members (abs. number) 4 members (abs. number)

15 * * *

2000 2030 2030 2030 2000 2000 2000 2000 5 * 23 * 96 * 13 * 49 * 98 * (CH) 105 * 123 * 1,165 117 * 117 2009-2030 2009-2030 2009-2030 Seetal 1990-2000 1990-2000 83,468 61,880 178,996

2000 2030 2030 2030 2000 2000 2000 2000 4 27 51 97 92 13 113 76 * 86 * (CH) 1,313 5,994 9,645 1990-2000 1990-2000 2008-2030 2008-2030 2008-2030 18,239

Nidwalden 2002 2030 2030 2030 2002 2002 2002 2002 7 5 53 92 73 86 91 119 25 * 2,252 5,204 8,543 2008-2030 2008-2030 2008-2030 1991-2002 1991-2002 (SLO) Škofja 17,844 Loka Hills 2002 2030 2030 2030 2002 2002 2002 2002 8 5 61 21 91 76 76 99 81 783 2,189 7,549 4,569 2008-2030 2008-2030 2008-2030 1991-2002 1991-2002 (SLO) Upper Gorenjska 2001 2029 2029 2029 2008 2001 2001 2001 4 43 83 95 99 19 54 509 104 26 * 1,910 5,820 1,870 South 2009-2029 2009-2029 2009-2029 1986-2008 1986-2008 Model Tyrolean Tyrolean Region (I) 2001 2001 2001 2001 2001

(I) 32 92 47 18 60 (1) 148 1991-2001 1991-2001 Langa Astigiana 2008 2001 2008 2008 2028 2028 2028 Education 9 96 77 98 89 0 * 131 30 * 61 * Aosta Valley Valley 1991-2001 1991-2001 2009-2028 2009-2028 2009-2028 17,039 52,230 32,174 1,721 * region (I) Projections 2001 2001 2001 2001 2001 2032 2032 2032 2 3 58 37 82 70 (A) 153 36 * 112 * 112 1971-2001 1971-2001 2009-2032 2009-2032 2009-2032 25,165 63,978 50,191 7,576 * Pongau - Lungau Pinzgau -

2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2028 2028 2028

78 79 8 * 116 39 * 11 * 11 93 * 88 * 40 * 9,017 1993-2008 1993-2008 2008-2028 2008-2028 2008-2028 30,616 18,372 Parten -

1,700 * District of Garmisch- kirchen (D) kirchen 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2028 2028 2028

5 7 34 88 87 86 65 44 117 9,000 1993-2008 1993-2008 2008-2028 2008-2028 2008-2028 60,500 183,900 100,700 Allgäu (D)

- Model Region Education data does not sum up to 100, because the share of people without education is included. Indicator 4 members, index first year/last year in LTS 5+ members (abs. number) 5+ members, index first year/last year in LTS Education structure by attainment - Primary school (%) Secondary school (%) College and non-uni versity degree (%) University or higher degree (%) 0-14 index current/future 15-49 (abs. number) 15-49 index current/future 50-64 (abs. number) 50-64 index current/future Age group 0-14 (abs. number)

16 *

2009 2009 2009 2030 2008

0 * 0 * 8 * 27 96 * (CH) 100 * 178 * 2009-2030 2009-2030 Seetal 6,452 * 105,527 2009 2009 2030 2008

90 0 * 0 * 196 (CH) 100 * 2008-2030 2008-2030 12,590 9,708 * Nidwalden 2009 2002 2002 2030 2030 2009 5 12 27 67 87 100 123 8,695 7,963 23.2 * 2008-2030 2008-2030 (SLO) Škofja Loka Hills 2009 2002 2030 2030 2002 2009 5 10 40 57 71 116 100 3,431 4,799 23.2 * 2008-2030 2008-2030 (SLO) Upper Gorenjska 2029 2029 2008 2008 1998 1998

44 85 97 4 * 102 100 2,856 1,491 South 2009-2029 2009-2029 Model 21.60 * Tyrolean Tyrolean Region (I) 2001

(I) 65 102 377 Langa Astigiana

2011 2028 2001 2008 2028 2006 4 35 81 89 88 128 Aosta 26,3 * Valley Valley 2008-2028 2009-2028 25,365 33,659 10-70 * region (I) Connectivity and public services 2007 2009 2009 2032 2009 4 * (A) 174 19 * 43 * 86,5 7.47 * 85.7 * 2012-2032 2012-2032 2009-2032 49,815 63.88 *

17,334 Pongau - Lungau Pinzgau - 2008 2008 2028 2028 2008

63 10 80 5 * 122 75 * 100 * 24.36 2008-2028 2008-2028 15,500 24,753 Parten - District of Garmisch- kirchen (D) kirchen 2028 2028 2008 2008 2008 9

29 86 75 5 * 131 100 * 21.94 2008-2028 2008-2028 92,000 128,500 Allgäu (D) - Model Region Time distance (by car) Time from regional centre (in min.) Indicator Time distance (by car) Time from municipal centre (in min.) Regular social transfers per 1000 inhabitants Share of children included in statutory primary schools as % of age group 6-15 65 and more (abs. number) 65 and more index current/future Female 15-49 (abs. number) Female 15-49 index current/future Share of people above 65 in homes for elderly (%) Share of children included in kinder gartens as % of age group 1-5

17 2009 2008 0.6 36 * (CH) Seetal 2009 2008 1.2 36 * (CH) Nidwalden

2010 2009 68 * 1.77 * (SLO) Škofja Loka Hills

2010 2009 68 * 1.77 * (SLO) Upper Gorenjska 2008 1996

0.5 * 44 * South Model Tyrolean Tyrolean Region (I) Financial and insurance activities Real estate activities Professional, scientific and technical activities Administrative and support service activities Public administration and defence; compulsory social security Education Human health and social work activities Arts, entertainment and recreation Other services activities goods Activities of households as employers; undifferentiated and services producing activities of households for own use Activities of extraterritorial organisations and bodies

(I) K L M N O P Q R S T U Langa Astigiana 2008 2007 23 2.2 Aosta Valley Valley region (I) 2010 2010

(A) 64 1.8 * Pongau - Lungau Pinzgau - 2010 2008

9 2.1 Parten - District of Garmisch- kirchen (D) kirchen 2010 2008

1.9 96,5 Allgäu (D) Data reported as not available See comment in respective SRR data part Long time series - latest year plus 5, 10 and 15 years before (e.g. 1993, 1998, 2003 2008) Short time series - latest year plus directly preceding 4 years (e.g. 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008) Model Region Agriculture, forestry and fishing Mining and quarrying Manufacturing gas, steam and air conditioning supply Electricity, supply; sewerage; waste management and Water remediation activities Construction Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles and storage Transporting Accommodation and food service activities Information and communication Indicator Doctors per 1000 residents Share of households with internet (broadband) Reference year is missing if it was not submitted in original reports (i.e. Short regional report – data part) Legend: empty-cells * LTS STS Sectors: A B C D E F G H I J

18 Seetal, Switzerland (non EU-PP2 IIPS)

Project partner number: Non-EU-Partner 2 Acronym of the institution: IIPS Name of model region: Seetal

Data for CODE* Indicator Your comment on data* model area

Geography, socio econ.situation

111As2006 Area size, km2 [CT] 108.71 112De2009 Density of population [CT] 239.7 141ToYR Share of mountains (%) [CT] 8 LAU1 151SeYR Average purchase prices of land [CT] Data not available. 161HoIND2000_2009 Number of dwellings (INDEX) [STS] 117.95 163Ho2000 Average living area in m2 per person [CT] 42 Average price per m2 for apartment 164aHoIND1999_2009 124 (INDEX) [STS] Average price per m2 for house 164bHoIND1999_2009 120.6 (INDEX) [STS] GVA/person or GDP/person in € 311Mo2008 42,197 Value for canton Lucerne. (absolute number) GVA/person or GDP/person 311MoIND1994_2009 133.00 Value for canton Lucerne. (INDEX last YR/first YR) [LTS] GVA or GDP/employed persons in € 313Mo2009 83,600 (absolute number) GVA or GDP/employed persons in € 313MoIND1994_2009 128.6 (INDEX last YR/first YR) [LTS] 331Un2010 Unemployment rate (%) 2.9 Unemployed persons 331UnIND2001_2010 285.1 (INDEX last YR/first YR) [LTS] Share of employed_1st most important 342aSe2008 27.9 sector/subsector in % [CT] Share of employed_2nd most important 342bSe2008 15.0 sector/subsector in % [CT] Share of employed_3rd most important 342cSe2008 14.7 sector/subsector in % [CT]

Demography

Population development 211cPo2009 26,032 (absolute number)

WP4 Demographic change Author | Contact: in Seetal: Daniel Matti ([email protected]) short regional report - data part [email protected] | www.demochange.org

19 Natural increase / 1000 inhabitants 221Na1994 7.6 per year, 1st year [LTS] Natural increase / 1000 inhabitants 221Na1999 6.3 per year, 2st year [LTS] Natural increase / 1000 inhabitants 221Na2004 1.8 per year, 3st year [LTS] Natural increase / 1000 inhabitants 221Na2008 2.9 per year, last year [LTS] Net migration / 1000 inhabitants 222Nm1994 3.1 Value for canton Lucerne. per year, 1st year [LTS] Net migration / 1000 inhabitants 222Nm1999 0.8 Value for canton Lucerne. per year, 2st year [LTS] Net migration / 1000 inhabitants 222Nm2004 3.7 Value for canton Lucerne. per year, 3st year [LTS] Net migration / 1000 inhabitants 222Nm2009 10.0 Value for canton Lucerne. per year, last year [LTS] 232Fe2009 Total fertility rate [CT] 1.54 Value for canton Lucerne. 241aAsIND1994_2008 Age structure_0-14 (INDEX) [LTS] 85.6 Different age categories. 241bAsIND1994_2008 Age structure_15-24 (INDEX) [LTS] 77.8 Different age categories. 241cAsIND1994_2008 Age structure_25-49 (INDEX) [LTS] 141.8 Different age categories. 241dAsIND1994_2008 Age structure_50-64 (INDEX) [LTS] 112.8 Different age categories. 241eAsIND1999_2009 Age structure_65-79 (INDEX) [LTS] 112 241fAsIND1999_2009 Age structure_80 and more (INDEX) [LTS] 106 Child dependency ratio 242As2008 36.7 (population aged 0-14 / 15-64)*100 Aged dependency ratio 243As2009 23.19 Value for canton Lucerne. (population aged 65 and more / 15-64)*100 251Hs2000 Number of households (absolute number) 8,351 251Hs1990_2000 Number of households (INDEX) [LTS] 125 252Hs2005 Average household size (absolute number) 2.73 Average household size 252HsIND1990_2005 92 (INDEX last YR/first YR) [LTS] 253aHs2000 Households_1 member (absolute number) 2,117 Households_1 member 253aHsIND1990_2000 160 LAU1 (INDEX last YR/first YR) [LTS] 253bHs2000 Households_2 members (absolute number) 2,419 253bHsIND1990_2000 Households_2 members (INDEX) [LTS] 129 LAU1 253cHs2000 Households_3 members (absolute number) 1,184 Households_3 members 253cHsIND1990_2000 113 LAU1 (INDEX last YR/first YR) [LTS] 253dHs2000 Households_4 members (absolute number) 1,466 Households_5+ members 253eHs2000 1,165 (absolute number)

WP4 Demographic change Author | Contact: in Seetal: Daniel Matti ([email protected]) short regional report - data part [email protected] | www.demochange.org

20 Households_5+ members 253eHsIND1990_2000 98 LAU1 (INDEX last YR/first YR) [LTS] Education structure by educational 261cEd2000 22.6 Value for canton Lucerne. attainment_Primary school (%) [CT] Education structure by educational 261dEd2000 49.20 Value for canton Lucerne. attainment_Secondary school (%) [CT] Education structure by educational 261eEd2000 attainment_College and non-university 12.60 Value for canton Lucerne. degree (%) [CT] Education structure by educational attain- 261fEd2000 4.70 value for canton Lucerne ment_University or higher degree (%) [CT]

Projections

Projected Age group_0-14 273aPa2030 61,880 Value for canton Lucerne. (absolute number) Projected Age group_0-14 2009_2030 105.23 Value for canton Lucerne. current/future (INDEX) Projected Age group_15_49 273bPa200 178,996 Value for canton Lucerne. (absolute number) Projected Age group_15-49 2009_2030 95.67 Value for canton Lucerne. current/future (INDEX) Projected Age group_50_64 273cPa2030 83,468 Value for canton Lucerne. (absolute number) Projected Age group_50_64 2009_2030 122.9 Value for canton Lucerne. current/future (INDEX) Projected Age group_65 and more 273dPa2030 105,527 Value for canton Lucerne. (absolute number) Projected Age group_65 and more 2009_2030 178.43 Value for canton Lucerne. current/future (INDEX) Projected Female_15-49 2009_2030 96.17 Value for canton Lucerne. current/future (INDEX)

Connectivity and public services

Time distance (by car) from municipal 611Co2010 0 centre (in min.) [CT] Time distance (by car) from regional 612Co2010 0 centre (in min.) [CT] Regular social transfers per 1000 631SoYR Data not available. inhabitants [CT] Share of people above 65 in homes 632So2008 7.81 Value for canton Lucerne. for elderly (%) Share of children included in kindergartens 641Ed2009 26.8 as % of age group 1-5

WP4 Demographic change Author | Contact: in Seetal: Daniel Matti ([email protected]) short regional report - data part [email protected] | www.demochange.org

21 Share of children included in statutory 642Ed2009 100 Nearly 100%. primary schools as % of age group 6-15 Share of households with internet 652Te2009 35.6 Value for Switzerland. (broad-band) 634So2008 Doctors per 100 residents [CT] 0.55

WP4 Demographic change Author | Contact: in Seetal: Daniel Matti ([email protected]) short regional report - data part [email protected] | www.demochange.org