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Fiscal Impact Assessment of Structural Reforms With fiscal space limited in South East European economies, this book is very Fiscal Impact Assessment of Structural Reforms Editors: Mojmir Mrak, Robert Bauchmüller, Paul McClure timely. Structural reforms remain crucial to unlock growth in the region, but they frequently entail budgetary costs. Assessing and managing these costs requires a strengthening of capacity, as well as a better integration with budgetary projections and EU planning documents. This volume draws very skillfully on case studies from across the region to explore the operational challenges that this entails, including the need for capacity-building in line ministries as well as ministries of finance. Its conclusions distil important lessons, and offer a practical guide for policy-makers as they approach these problems. The book fills a gap in our understanding of Fiscal Impact public financial management, and it deserves a wide readership. Max Watson Visiting Fellow and Coordinator of South East European political economy studies, Assessment of European Studies Centre, St Antony’s College, Oxford This book is an invaluable resource for those who are seeking to understand how Structural Reforms essential structural reforms in South East European countries are coordinated with fiscal planning processes. Written by those who have been intimately involved with the reforms, the book offers key insights into the challenges that have been overcome and those that still remain. I think it is a great achievement. Case Studies on South East Europe Brian Olden Deputy Division Chief, Fiscal Affairs Department, International Monetary Fund Ministry of Finance Montenegro ISBN 978-961-92845-1-3 Fiscal Impact Assessment of Structural Reforms Case Studies on South East Europe Ljubljana 2013 © 2013, Center of Excellence in Finance (CEF) All rights reserved. Published by: Center of Excellence in Finance Cankarjeva 18 1000 Ljubljana Slovenia Internet: www.cef-see.org E-mail: [email protected] Texts by: Blerta Zilja and Edlira Kalaja, Naida Čaršimamović Vukotić and Ognjen Đukić, Anto Bajo, Bernard Nikaj, Tatjana Arsova, Tijana Stanković, Maja Popov, Helena Kamnar, Taşkın Babaoğlan Fiscal Impact Assessment of Structural Reforms – Case Studies on South East Europe, First Edition Rights and Permissions The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The CEF encourages dissemina- tion of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. Permission to reproduce a portion of this work for non-commercial purposes or classroom use as well as other applications for permission to reproduce or translate all or part of this book should be obtained through a formal request with complete information sent to the Center of Excellence in Finance, Cankarjeva 18, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia, telephone: +386 1 369 6190, website: www.cef- see.org, e-mail: [email protected]. This volume is a product of the staff of the Center of Excellence in Finance (CEF) and has been produced in strategic partnership with the Ministry of Finance, Montenegro, and with financial support of the World Bank’s Trust Fund for Strengthening Accountability and the Fiduciary Envi- ronment (SAFE) in Public Financial Management, which has been established by the European Union (EU) and the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO). The findings, interpreta- tions, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of the Center of Excellence in Finance, the SAFE Trust Fund at the World Bank (or any of its donors), the Ministry of Finance, Montenegro, or the governments of countries represented. The Center of Excellence in Finance does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The case studies in this volume provide a valuable basis for a continued exchange with international experts and ben- eficiaries on the capacity development needs of the South East Europe, which the CEF intends to facilitate. Editors: Mojmir Mrak, Robert Bauchmüller, Paul McClure Design: Sonja Eržen u.d.i.a., Ljubljana Printing: TISKARNA JANUŠ, Januš Miran s.p., Ljubljana CIP – Kataložni zapis o publikaciji Narodna in univerzitetna knjižnica, Ljubljana 336.22(497) FISCAL impact assessment of structural reforms : case studies on South East Europe / [texts by Blerta Zilja ... [et al.] ; editors Mojmir Mrak, Robert Bauchmüller, Paul McClure]. - 1st ed. - Ljubljana : Center of Excellence in Finance, 2013 ISBN 978-961-92845-1-3 1. Zilja, Blerta 2. Mrak, Mojmir 265373184 In strategic partnership with the Ministry of Finance Montenegro Supported by World Bank Trust Fund, established by the European Union and the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs Contents | v CONTENTS ABOUT THE EDITORS xi ABBREVIATIONS xiii PREFACE xv INTRODUCTION 1 Chapter 1: Case Study on ALBANIA 5 1. Introduction 7 2. Main institutional features for annual budget and medium-term fiscal programming 8 3. Incorporation of structural reforms’ fiscal costs into fiscal programming documents 13 4. Conclusions and recommendations 23 5. Literature and sources 27 6. Appendix 29 Chapter 2: Case Study on BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA 31 1. Introduction 33 2. Main institutional features for annual budget and medium-term fiscal programming 35 3. Incorporation of structural reforms’ fiscal costs into fiscal programming documents 47 4. Conclusions and recommendations 57 5. Literature and sources 61 6. Appendixes 62 Chapter 3: Case Study on CROATIA 69 1. Introduction 70 2. Main institutional features for annual budget and medium-term fiscal programming1 71 3. Incorporation of structural reforms’ fiscal costs into fiscal programming documents 81 4. Conclusions and recommendations 89 5. Literature and sources 91 6. Appendix 94 vi | Contents Chapter 4: Case Study on KOSOVO 97 1. Introduction 98 2. Main institutional features for annual budget and medium-term fiscal programming 98 3. Incorporation of structural reforms’ fiscal costs into fiscal programming documents 102 4. Conclusions and recommendations 106 5. Literature and sources 107 Chapter 5: Case Study on MACEDONIA 109 1. Introduction 110 2. Main institutional features for annual budget and medium-term fiscal programming 111 3. Incorporation of structural reforms’ fiscal costs into fiscal programming documents 117 4. Conclusions and recommendations 123 5. Literature and sources 126 Chapter 6: Case Study on MONTENEGRO 127 1. Introduction 128 2. Main institutional features for annual budget and medium-term fiscal programming 129 3. Incorporation of structural reforms’ fiscal costs into fiscal programming documents 133 4. Conclusions and recommendations 142 5. Literature and sources 144 6. Appendix 145 Chapter 7: Case Study on SERBIA 147 1. Introduction 148 2. Main institutional features for annual budget and medium-term fiscal programming 149 3. Incorporation of structural reforms’ fiscal costs into fiscal programming documents 155 4. Conclusions and recommendations 165 5. Literature and sources 168 6. Appendixes 169 Contents | vii Chapter 8: Case Study on SLOVENIA 177 1. Introduction 178 2. Main institutional features for annual budget and medium-term fiscal programming 179 3. Incorporation of structural reforms’ fiscal costs into fiscal programming documents 187 4. Conclusions and recommendations 198 5. Literature and sources 201 6. Appendixes 202 Chapter 9: Case Study on TURKEY 205 1. Introduction 206 2. Main institutional features for annual budget and medium-term fiscal programming 206 3. Incorporation of structural reforms’ fiscal costs into fiscal programming documents 213 4. Conclusion and recommendations 219 5. Literature and sources 221 6. Appendix 221 Conclusions 223 1. Relevance of political support 224 2. Fiscal programming and strategic documents 225 3. Fiscal impact assessments of structural reforms 225 4. Role of budget users 227 5. Fiscal policy coordination 228 6. Improving procedures and guiding budget users 229 Annex I: Indication of learning events to serve highlighted needs 231 1. Fiscal policy coordination 232 2. Budget submissions of line ministries 233 3. Enabling environment for effective fiscal impact assessments 234 Annex II: Guidelines for preparation of country case studies 237 Instructions for preparing country case studies 239 Content and structure of country case studies 239 Methodological issues of structural reforms: for use in preparing country case studies 245 Annex III: FIASR Working Group 249 About the Center of Excellence in Finance (CEF) 250 Recent CEF (co)publications 250 List of Figures | ix LIST OF FIGURES Figure I-1: The linkage between the NSDI and the MTBP cycle 29 Figure I-2: The programme expenditure process within a year in a budget institution 30 Figure II-1: The budget preparation process of BiH in 10 steps 43 Figure II-2: Projected financing of the Strategy of Science Development in BiH 67 Figure III-1: Linkages among strategic planning documents 72 Figure IV-1: Planning systems in Kosovo 100 Figure VI-1: Budget preparation scheme 141 Figure VII-1: Proposed integrated planning framework 163 Figure VIII-1: Normative regulation of fiscal and development documents 183 Figure VIII-2: Schematic illustration of development and budget planning system 190 Figure IX-1: Budgeting process in Turkey 208 Figure IX-2: Planning documents in Turkey 213 x | List of Tables LIST OF TABLES Table II-1: Issues with the fiscal impact assessment of selected structural reforms in BiH 60 Table II-2: Total general government
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