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February 2004 MONET MONTENEGRO ECONOMIC TRENDS February 2004 ABOUT ISSP ABOUT CEPS The Institute for Strategic Studies and Prognoses CEPS was established in 1983. It performs (ISSP), established by Professor Vukotic in independent analyses and critiques on European 1999, is the first independent economic institute economic policy and politics, as well as on in Montenegro. USAID assisted in this process European institutions and security. It and continues to support the work of the disseminates its findings through a regular flow Institute. ISSP has a wide network of associates of publications, public events and electronic both in Montenegro (about 150) and abroad. commentaries. ISSP is a member of the Balkan Network, the Global Development Network established by the CEPS is an independent membership-driven World Bank and the European Integration organization with more than 100 corporate Network. ISSP cooperates with ICER (Torino), members and a large number of central banks, WIIW (Vienna), CEPS (Brussels) and diplomatic missions and international business Chesapeake Associates (Washington). organizations in its constituency. The Institute’s mission is "to provide research ABOUT MONET that will contribute to Montenegro’s economic transformation and to change the current MONET (www.isspm.org) is the result of the mindset, as well as to train today’s young people joint work of ISSP in Podgorica and CEPS in how to function successfully in the new Belgium. It is financed by the grant from the environment." European Agency for Reconstruction. Major projects: MONET team o Macroeconomic reform in Montenegro a) Privatization -ISSP- b) Monetary Reform c) Capital Markets Development ISSP team leaders: d) Fiscal Reform Professor Veselin Vukotic Petar Ivanovic e) Reform of the Pension System f) Introduction of the SNA system Researchers: o Macroeconomic indicators in Jadranka Kaludjerovic, Montenegro Maja Bacovic, o Economic education Milorad Katnic, Nina Labovic, President: Ana Krsmanovic, Professor Veselin Vukotic, Ph.D. Tijana Stanković, Executive Director: Milica Vukotic Petar Ivanovic, Ms. Sci. Jelena Musikic Advisory Board Chairman: Professor Miroljub Labus, Ph.D. Lay out and web site: CONTACTS Boris Buskovic ISSP -CEPS- Address: Naselje pod Ljubovic, Lamela C (1 i 2), 81000 Podgorica, Montenegro, Yugoslavia Program Director: Tel/Fax: (381) 81 634 338; 634 329 Daniel Gros Website: www.isspm.org / Email: [email protected] Team Leader: CEPS Vladimir Najman ([email protected]) Address: Place du Congres 1, 1000 Brussels, Resident Economist: Belgium Przemyslaw Wozniak ([email protected], Tel: (32) 2 229 39 11, Fax: (32) 2 229 39 71 [email protected]) Website: www.ceps.be / Email: [email protected] Project Associates Zeljko Brkovic, Milan Dabovic, Miloica Dakic, Mirjana Djuranovic, Danijela Vukajlovic Grba, Jovanka Knezevic, Darinka Micanovic, Draginja Milatovic, Dejan Miljkovic, Dragica Pekovic, Milan Perovic, Natasa Radunovic, Vesna Samardzic, Zdravka Savic, Ljubinka Sekulic, Marina Vukanovic, Bosa Vukicevic, Tamara Saveljic, Zoran Djikanovic, Dragana Radevic, Darko Konjevic, Jelena Jokanovic, Maja Drakic Montengro Economic Trends Table of contents Events 3 Executive Summary 7 Part 1 Chapter 1. Output 12 Chapter 2. Employment 22 Chapter 3. Wages 26 Chapter 4. Prices 30 Chapter 5. Budget 42 Chapter 6. Money 60 Chapter 7. Capital Market 68 Chapter 8. External Sector 76 Chapter 9. Regional Comparison 86 Part 2 Comment 1. How far will the dollar fall? 90 Comment 2. Trading up with neighborhoods 92 Comment 3. The Puzzle of Montenegrin Inflation 94 Comment 4. Liberalization in Agriculture Sector 108 Comment 5. General Collective Agreement in Montenegro 120 Comment 6. Indicators of Montenegrin indebtedness 125 Comment 7. Causes of disequilibrium and key measures of achieving a Balance of Payments equilibrium of Montenegro 128 2 ISSP - CEPS February 2004 Events January 2003 06. Signed contract with three electricity providers. Electricity Company of Montenegro signed contracts with three companies to purchase approximately 1.3 billion Kwh of electricity: EFT from London, Sempra Energy Aurora from Great Britain and Montmontaza from Croatia. 19. Revenue from tourism - $ 102.7 mn. According to Ministry of Tourism announcement, in 2002, the tourism sector of Montenegro realized revenues in amount of $102.7 mn, which is approximately 22.4% higher, as compared to 2001. January 2003 06. Signed contract with three electricity providers. Electricity Company of Montenegro signed contracts with three companies to purchase approximately 1.3 billion Kwh of electricity: EFT from London, Sempra Energy Aurora from Great Britain and Montmontaza from Croatia. 19. Revenue from tourism - $ 102.7 mn. According to Ministry of Tourism announcement, in 2002, the tourism sector of Montenegro realized revenues in amount of $102.7 mn, which is approximately 22.4% higher, as compared to 2001. February 2003 04. Formed State Union between Serbia and Montenegro. Federation Parliament deputies adopted the Constitutional Charter and Law for its implementation. This Law abolishes the name “Yugoslavia” and introduces the name ‘State Union of Serbia and Montenegro.’ 10. New failure of Presidential election in Montenegro. Elections for President in Montenegro, held on February 8, failed for the second time. Just 47.7% of Montenegrin citizens came to the polls, so the Law for Selection of President of Republic was not fulfilled. This Law requires a turnout of at least 50% plus one citizen that possesses passive electoral rights. 12. Privatization revenues € 71.4 mn. According to the Privatization Council of Montenegro data, Montenegro has earned €71.4 mn by shares and company assets purchased. The sale of shares and company’s assets on Public tender has realized 96% of last year’s revenues or €68.5 mn. March 2003 01. Montenegroberza stock exchange introduces index MOSTE. Montenegroberza introduced the MOSTE index that is composed of share prices of the 35 most traded companies on the Montenegroberza stock exchange. Initial value of index was 1000 points. 01. NEX Montenegro stock exchange introduces two stock exchange indexes. NEX Montenegro stock exchange introduces two indexes: NEX PIF and NEX 20. NEX 20 monitors the prices of shares of 20 important companies from Montenegro and NEX PIF monitors the prices of investment units of all six Privatization Funds in Montenegro. Initial value of index was 1000 points. 25. Compulsory reserve is reduced to 23%. Council of Central Bank of Montenegro decided to reduce compulsory reserve on deposits for commercial banks from 50% to 23%. ISSP - CEPS 3 Montengro Economic Trends April 2003 01. Price of electricity increased. Price of electricity in Montenegro increased by 23.24%. The average price for 1 kWh will now be 4.6 cents while that for households will be 4.4 cents for 1 kWh. 01. Start Value Added Tax (VAT) application. In Montenegro started VAT application. VAT will be calculated with a rate of 17%. 11. Started trade of shares with foreign currency saving bonds. On the Montenegroberza stock exchange trade with shares of foreign currency saving bonds are conducted for the first time for the price of € 0.75, or 75% of nominal value. 11. Government adopts Decree on Tax Relief for New Employees. Montenegrin Government adopts Decree on Tax Relief for New Employees. This Decree provides that employers are free from paying employee taxes and part of contributions, for every new employee. 11. The Government of Montenegro adopted Decree on Employment of Nonresidents. According to this Decree, employer is obliged to pay € 2.5 of non – resident tax per day and personal income tax. 14. Ministers of Finance in Montenegro and Serbia sign Contract of Representation in International Finance Organizations. According to the agreement, Serbia will be a fiscal agent in IMF and Montenegro will be a fiscal agent in World Bank for the Union Serbia and Montenegro. 30. Adopt four decrees that regulate goods turnover between Serbia and Montenegro and its taxing. According to the adopted decrees, the goods produced in Serbia and sold in Montenegro will not be taxed twice. May 2003 09. Sign contract on sale “Montenegrobanka”. Deputies of Montenegrobanka and “Nova Ljubljanska” bank sign contract on the sale of Montenegrobanka in the amount of € 11.1 mn. 12. Filip Vujanovic – president of Montenegro. On elections for president of Montenegro, held on May 11, Filip Vujanovic won with 63.8% of votes and became the president of Montenegro. 13. First licenses obtained for six Montenegrin banks. The Council of Central Bank of Montenegro gave licenses for payment operations to six commercial banks: Euromarket bank, Crnogorska komercijalna bank, Hipotekarna bank, Atlas Mont bank, Podgoricka bank and Montenegrobanka. These are the operations that were previously carried out by ZOP and will now be done in the banks in view of elimination of ZOP. June 2003 02. “Merkur” to buy Hotel “Mogren”. Company “Merkur” from Budva is to buy Hotel “Mogren” for € 5.1 mn. 13. Adopt Action Plan between Serbia and Montenegro. The Government of Montenegro adopts a draft version of Action Plan on Harmonization between Serbia and Montenegro. According to the announcement of Ministry of Finance, average nominal tariff rate in Montenegro will be 6.1% and average effective rate will be 5.7%. 4 ISSP - CEPS February 2004 July 2003 08. The Parilament of Montenegro Adopted Law on the Protector of Human Rights and Freedom (Ombudsman), Labor Law and Law on Strike. 15. The Parliament of Montenegro adopted the Law on Action Plan of Harmonization between Serbia and Montenegro. 29. Started implementation of the Labour Law. According to the Labour Law, employer is obligated to, for every employee that is proclaimed as a surplus, pay at least six average wages in Montenegro. August 2003 13. Abolished contingents and limitations in traffic. The Government of Montenegro adopts Regulation on Modification Decree on Assortment Goods on Import and Export Goods. This Regulation abolished all quantitative barriers on import and export for certain goods. September 2003 09. “Irva” from Belgrade bought “Mimoza”. Privatization Funds HLT, Mimoza, and Moneta sold over one million shares in HTP “Mimoza” from Tivat to “Irva” from Belgrade.
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