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Montenegro Economic Trends MONET MONTENEGRO ECONOMIC TRENDS April 2003 ABOUT ISSP ABOUT CEPS The Institute for Strategic Studies and Prognoses CEPS was established in 1983. It performs (ISSP), established by Professor Vukotic in independent analyses and critiques on European 1999, is the first independent economic institute economic policy and politics, as well as on in Montenegro. USAID assisted in this process European institutions and security. It and continues to support the work of the disseminates its findings through a regular flow Institute. ISSP has a wide network of associates of publications, public events and electronic both in Montenegro (about 150) and abroad. commentaries. ISSP is a member of the Balkan Network, the CEPS is an independent membership-driven Global Development Network established by the organization with more than 100 corporate World Bank and the European Integration members and a large number of central banks, Network. ISSP cooperates with ICER (Torino), diplomatic missions and international business WIIW (Vienna), CEPS (Brussels) and organizations in its constituency. Chesapeake Associates (Washington). ABOUT MONET The Institute’s mission is "to provide research that will contribute to Montenegro’s economic MONET (www.monetonline.org) is the result of transformation and to change the current the joint work of ISSP in Podgorica and CEPS in mindset, as well as to train today’s young people Belgium. It is financed by the grant from the how to function successfully in the new European Agency for Reconstruction. environment." MONET team Major projects: o Macroeconomic reform in Montenegro -ISSP- a) Privatization ISSP team leaders: b) Monetary Reform Professor Veselin Vukotic Petar Ivanovic c) Capital Markets Development d) Fiscal Reform Researchers: e) Reform of the Pension System Jadranka Kaludjerovic, Milorad Katnic, Nina f) Introduction of the SNA system Labovic, Maja Bacovic, Ana Krsmanovic, Tijana o Macroeconomic indicators in Lekovic, Milica Vukotic Montenegro o Economic education Lay out and web site: President: Boris Buskovic Professor Veselin Vukotic, Ph.D. -CEPS- Executive Director: Program Director: Petar Ivanovic, Ms. Sci. Daniel Gros Advisory Board Chairman: Team Leader: Professor Miroljub Labus, Ph.D. Vladimir Najman ([email protected]) CONTACTS Resident Economist: Przemyslaw Wozniak ([email protected], ISSP [email protected]) Address: Naselje pod Ljubovic, Lamela C (1 i 2), Gérard Duchêne 81000 Podgorica, Montenegro, Yugoslavia Tel/Fax: (381) 81 634 338; 634 329 Editorial board: Website: www.isspm.org / Email: [email protected] Daniel Gros Wolfang hagel CEPS Richard W. Rahn Address: Place du Congres 1, 1000 Brussels, Veselin Vukotic Belgium Petar Ivanovic Tel: (32) 2 229 39 11, Fax: (32) 2 229 39 71 Margot Machol Website: www.ceps.be / Email: [email protected] Bridget Wagner Project Associates Zeljko Brkovic, Milan Dabovic, Miloica Dakic, Mirjana Djuranovic, Danijela Vukajlovic Grba, Jovanka Knezevic, Darinka Micanovic, Draginja Milatovic, Dejan Miljkovic, Dragica Pekovic, Milan Perovic, Natasa Radunovic, Vesna Samardzic, Zdravka Savic, Ljubinka Sekulic, Marina Vukanovic, Bosa Vukicevic, Tamara Saveljic, Zoran Djikanovic, Dragana Radevic, Darko Konjevic, Jelena Jokanovic, Maja Drakic ISSN 1451-3617 Table of contents Events 2 Executive Summary 6 Part 1 Chapter 1. Output 10 Chapter 2. Employment 18 Chapter 3. Wages 22 Chapter 4. Prices 26 Chapter 5. Budget 36 Chapter 6. Money 52 Chapter 7. Capital Market 58 Chapter 8. Trade 64 Chapter 9. Regional Comparison 74 Part 2 Comment 1. Economic Reform Agenda 2002-2006 in Montenegro 79 Comment 2. Barriers to doing business in Montenegro 90 Comment 3. Bolder strokes 106 Comment 4. Accountability of private sector and efficient information allocation in corporate governance 108 Comment 5. Minimum wage in Montenegro – a dangerous concept 112 Comment 6. Why is Montenegrin inflation so high? 116 Comment 7. Economic Freedom in Montenegro 134 Comment 8. Electricity Futures Market 138 ISSP - CEPS Montenegro Economic Trends Events December 2002 05. In Niksic the first branch office of the Opportunity Bank was opened. 05. Regional Conference about electricity in Montenegro and Southeast Europe. Institute for Strategic Studies and Prognoses organized in Podgorica an International Conference about electricity whose main goal is the exchange of experiences and a better understanding of problems in the electricity sector in the Republic and in the Region. 06. Adopt text of Constitutional Charter. The Commission for writing the Constitutional Charter of State Union between Serbia and Montenegro unanimously adopted the text of the Constitutional Charter. 10. Approved budget for 2003. The budget expenditures in Montenegro in 2003 will be €431mn, €88mn or 25% more than last year. 12. Montenegro Business Alliance (MBA) opened its Podgorica office. Montenegro Business Alliance, which assembles Montenegrin small and medium business, opened an office in Podgorica. Two branch offices already exist in Kotor and Budva. 13. Approved trade by shares (investment units) of Privatization Funds. Commission for Securities adopted the regulation about issuing investment units of Funds and regulation about transformation Funds into Joint Stock Companies. These rules allow citizens who entrusted their investment units to the Funds to trade them. 17. Industrial production increase in November. According to Republic Statistical Office data, industrial production in Montenegro in November continued its upward trend that began in July. Production in November 2002 was 17% higher compared with an average monthly production last year, and 10% higher compared with the same month last year. 17. Inflation in Montenegro 18%. According to an announcement of the Statistical Office in Montenegro, the average level of prices in Montenegro in the first eleven months of 2002 were 18% higher than compared to the same period of 2001. 17. Montenegro Business Alliance opened its branch office in Herceg Novi. 18. Agreement on half of the text of the Constitutional Law between Serbia and Montenegro. Constitutional Commission in Belgrade put together half of the text of the Constitutional law for implementation Constitutional charter. 18. Loss in Niksic Brewery as a consequence of strike. In 2002, Niksic’s brewery “Trebjesa” registered a loss in the amount of €1.5mn and a decrease in production by 40% compared to 2001. The main cause was the strike in the Brewery. 22. Presidential elections held in Montenegro. Presidential elections in Montenegro failed. About 46% of the Montenegrin citizens came to the polls, slightly below 50% plus one citizen required by the Law. The elections will be repeated in February. 23. Privatization of Niksic’s Ironworks. Board of directors in Niksic’s Ironworks accepted privatization plans of the factory and adopted the Information Memorandum, which will be delivered to the Privatization Council. After that, the international tender will be announced. Two Ironworks, one from Italy and one from Greece, are interested in the purchase of Niksic’s Ironworks. 30. European Agency for Reconstruction defined the Budget for 2003. European Agency for Reconstruction defined the budget for 2003. Of the total budgeted amount, Montenegro will receive €12mn. 2 ISSP - CEPS May 2003 January 2003 04. Inflation rate projected at 8% in 2003. The Central Bank of Montenegro announced that the inflation rate in Montenegro in 2003 is projected to be 8%. The underlying inflationary factors were the expected growth in the price of electricity, an increase in the minimum wage and a new tax laws. 06. Electricity contracts signed. Electricity Company in Montenegro signed contracts to purchase about 1.3 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity with three companies: London’s EFT, British Sempra Energy Aurora and Croatian Montmontaza. 06. At the Economic Faculty the traditional Christmas Lecture about Economics was held. 16. Average price level higher by 17.4%. According to the Montenegrin Statistical Office, the average price level in Montenegro in 2002 was 17.4% higher than in 2001. Retail prices in December 2002 were 9.4% higher than in December 2001. 19. Tourism revenues in 2002 at $102.7mn. According to the announcement of the Ministry of Tourism, tourism revenues in 2002 amounted to over $102 mn or 22.4% higher than last year. 25. 95% of old foreign currencies savings of Montenegro Bank and Jugobanka returned to the customers. Central Bank in Montenegro announced that on January 22 the Settlement and Payment Office paid 95% of old savings in foreign currencies of the Montenegro Bank and Jugobanka from Podgorica (both of which went bankrupt). Total amount that was paid is €1,823,811.74, and the number of savers that took advantage of this payment is 4,641. 28. Increase in industrial production in December 2002. According to the Republic Statistical Office, industrial production in Montenegro in December of 2002 increased by 20.9% compared to an average level of monthly production in 2001, by 3.3% compared to November same year and by 1.6% compared to December of 2001. 29. Constitutional Charter and Law for Constitutional Charter Implementation adopted. Parliament of the Republic of Montenegro adopted the Constitutional charter of the State Union between Serbia and Montenegro and Law for Constitutional Charter Implementation. 29. Regional Business Center opened in Bar. National Agency for Development Small and Medium Companies signed the contract with the Municipality of Bar for opening a Regional Business Center. ISSP - CEPS 3 Montenegro Economic
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