THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION (WMO) is a specialized agency of the United Nations

The purposes of WMO are: EXECUTIVE COUNCIL President J. W. ZtLLMAN (Australia) To faci li tate worldwide cooperation in the estab­ First Vice-President C. E. BERRfDGE (British lishment of networks of stations for the making of Caribbean Territories) meteorological observations as well as hydro­ Second Vice-President N. SEN RoY (India) logical and other geophysical observations related Third Vice-President (post vacant) to meteorology, and to promote the establi shment and maintenance of centres charged with the prov­ Ex officio members of the Executive Council ision of meteorological and related services; (presidents of regional associations) Africa (Region I) To promote the establi shment and maintenance of systems for the rapid exchange of meteorological K. KONARE (Mali ) Asia (Region II) and related information; Z. BATJARGAL (Mongolia) To promote standardization of meteorological and South America (Region Ill) related observations and to ensure the uniform W. CASTRO WREDE (Paraguay) publication of observations and statistics; North and Central America (Region IV) A.J. DANIA (Netherlands Antilles and Aruba) To further the application of meteorology to avia­ South-West Pacific (Region V) tion, shipping, water problems, agriculture and S. KARJOTO (Indonesia) other human activities; Europe (Region VI) To promote activities in operational hydrology P. STEINHAUSER (Austria) and to further close cooperation between Meteoro­ Elected members of the Executive Council logical and Hydrological Services; A. A. AL-GA IN (Saudi Arabia) To encourage research and training in meteor­ Z. ALPERSON (Israel) ology and, as appropriate, in related fields, and to L. A. AMADORE (Philippines) (acting) assist in coordinating the international aspects of A. ATHAYDE (Brazil) such research and training. A. I. BEDRITSKY (Russian Federation) J.-P. BEYSSON (France) A. B. DIOP (Senegal) The World Meteorological Congress E. w. FRIDAY (USA) is the supreme body of the Organization. It brings U. GARTNER (Germany) (acting) together delegates of all Members once every four J. C. R. HUNT (United Kingdom) years to determine general policies for the fu lfilment P. LEYVA-FRANCO (Colombia) of the purposes of the Organization. G. McBEAN (Canada) M. S. MHITA (United Republic of Tanzania) E. A. MUKOLWE (Kenya) The Executive Council L. NDOR IM ANA (Burundi) is composed of 36 directors of national Meteoro­ A. M. NooRIAN (Islamic Republic of Iran) logical or Hydrometeorological Services serving in an I. 0BRUSNIK (Czech Republic) individual capacity; it meets at least once a year to T. ONo (Japan) (acting) supervise the programmes approved by Congress. G. E. 0RTEGA GIL (Mexico) G. K. RAMOTHWA (Botswana) Y. SALAHU (Nigeria) (acting) The six regional associations G. C. SCHULZE (South Africa) are each composed of Members whose task it is to R. A. SONZINI (Argentina) coordin ate meteorological and related activities J. ZIELINSKI (Poland) within their respective Regions. H. ZOHDY (Egypt) (acting) Zou JINGMENG (China)

The eight technical commissions PRESIDENTS OF TECHNICAL COMMISSIONS are composed of experts designated by Members and Aeronautical Meteorology: C. H. SPRINKLE are responsible for studying meteorological and Agricultural Meteorology: C. J. STIGTER hydrological operational systems, applications and Atmospheric Sciences: D. J. GAUNTLETT research. Basic Systems: S. MLLDNER Climatology: W. J. MA UNDER Hydrology: K. HOFIUS THE SECRETAR IAT OF THE ORGANIZATION IS LOCATED AT Instruments and Methods of Observation: J. KRUUS 41 AVENUE GIUSEPPE-MOTTA, GENEVA, SWITZERLAND . Marine Meteorology: J. GUDDAL WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION SECRETARY-GENERAL Vol. 46 No. 3 G. 0. P. OBASI July 1997 DEPUTY SECRETARY-GENERAL M. JARRAUD ASSISTANT SECRETARY-GENERAL A. S. ZAITSEV

The offic.ial journal of the "". .orld I IB3TT 1ILILJEl7fl'lJI!i\.1 Mete01ologrcal Organrzatron D V ll ! '\/

208 In thi s issue 209 The Bulletin interviews: Professor Bo R. Doos Subscripti on rates: 217 The EUMETSAT Polar System, by T. Mohr Surface mail 1 year: SFR 52 223 NOAA satellite programmes: new advances for the 2 1st century, 2 years: SFR 94 by R. S. Winokur 3 years: SFR 124 228 Improved meteorological function of the Multifunctional Trans­ Airmail port Satellite, by N. Sato 1 year: SFR 72 230 Satellite meteorology applications: a demonstration project for 2 years: SFR 130 Regional Meteorological Training Centres, by J. F. W. Purdom 3 years: SFR 172 237 The economic value of meteorology, by J.-P. Beysson Published quarterly (January, Apr il , July, 242 Weather presentation on Croatian television, by Z. Nenadic, October) in English, French, Russian I. Cacic and M. Sijerkovic and Spanish editions . 244 Impact of climate, by C. C. Wallen Remittances and all other correspon­ 249 Meteorological observing systems before 1870 in England, dence about the WMO Bulletin shou ld France, Gennany, Russia and the USA: a review and compari­ be addressed to the Secretary-General. son, by J. R. Fleming OPINIONS EXPRESSED IN SIGNED ARTICLES OR 259 The global climate system in 1996 IN ADVER TI SEMENTS APPEARING IN THE WMQ 262 Commission for Marine Meteorology-twelfth session Bulletin ARE THE AUTHOR'S OR ADVERTISER'S OPINIONS AN DDO NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT Anniversaries THOSE OF WMO. The mention of specific 265 The 75th anniversary of the National Hydrometeorological companie s or products in articles or Service of Ukraine and the 25th anniversary of the first in s­ advertisements does not imply that trumental meteorological observations in Ukraine, by V.N. they are endorsed or recommended by WMO in prefe rence to others of a simi­ Lipinsky lar nature which are not mentioned or WMO programme news adve rtised. Extracts from unsigned (or 268 Tropical Cyclone Programme initialled) article s in the journal may be 269 Climate infom1ation and prediction services reproduced provided the customary acknowledgement is made. Requests 270 World Climate Data and Monitoring Programme to publish signed articles (in part or in 272 World Climate Research Programme whole) sho uld be addressed to the Edi­ 274 Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme tor. 275 Global Atmosphere Watch 276 Aemnautical meteorology World Meteorological Organization 278 Hydrology and water resources Case postale 2300 CH-1211 Geneva 2 279 Education and training Switzerland 28 1 Infonnation and public affairs 282 Technical cooperation Tel.: (+4 1.22) 730.84.78 Fax: (+41.22) 733.09.82 283 In the Regions e·mail: bulletin@lpc .wmo.ch 285 News and notes 288 News from the Secretariat 293 Obituaries 296 Reviews 305 Calendar of coming events Editor: A. S. ZAITSEV 306 Members of the World Meteorological Organization Associate Editor: Judith C. C. TORRES In t!liis issure

This edition of the WMO Bulletin contains many inter­ mesoscale meteorology advanced meteorological esting items, including feature articles on our cho­ satellite demonstration interpretation system" (more sen theme of developments in meteorological satel­ readily known as RAMSDIS) programme can help lite technology, as well as on a wide variety of other RMTCs develop into specialized satellite applica­ topics. tions training centres. Firstly, the Bulletin interview is with Prof. B. R. Mr Jean-Pierre Beysson, Director-General of D66s, a well-known figure in the international meteo­ Meteo-France, gave a lecture at the Seventh Interna­ rological community. He was Director of the Joint tional Festival of Meteorology at lssy-le s Moulineaux, Planning staff for the Global Atmospheric Research France, in February 1997, on the economic value of Programme in the WMO Secretariat for 12 years meteorology. The lecture is reproduced here in view until his retirement in 1982. Today, he is sill scientifi­ of the current public and media interest in the topic cally active and heads the organization Global Envi­ and the need for improved visibility of Meteorologi­ ronmental Management in Vienna, Austria. cal Services. The first feature article is entitled "The EUMET­ On a similar track, the next article describes SAT Polar System-observations from space in the and presents the re sults of a survey carried out in 21st century". Dr Tillmann Mohr, Director of EUMET­ Croatia (by Zeljana Nenadic, lvan Cacic and Milan SAT, outlines the historical and future perspectives, Sijerkovic) about the public's reaction to, and per­ current status and content of this new programme, ception of, televised weather programmes and their ground infrastructure, instrument payload and appli­ value and how to improve and strengthen the rela­ cations and concludes with a summary of the bene­ tionship between a television network and a national fits to be derived. Meteorological Service . The following article, by Robert S. Winokur, "Impact of climate" was the title of a lecture sets out the US National Oceanic and Atmo spheric delivered by C. C. Wallen to the European Confer­ Administration's polar-orbiting and geostationary ence on Applied Climatology in Sweden in May satellite programmes, whose aim is to ensure the 1996. Reproduced here, it addresses definitions continuity of critical meteorological, oceanographic and applications, as well as impacts of climate, and climatological observations in the next century. especia lly as regards the establishment of a stable The improved meteorological function of the socio-economic system. Multifunctional Transport Satellite (MTSAT) is the James Fleming then gives us an erudite, com­ subject of an article by Nobuo Sato of the Japan parative review of meteorological observing sys­ Meteorological Agency. MTSAT, a geostationary tems before 1870 in England, France, Germany satellite with dual meteorological and aeronautical Ru ssia and the USA. He observes that the establish­ missions, is due to be launched in 1999. ment of national Weather Services was an important A virtual laboratory concept has been success­ step on the path to effective international coopera­ fully applied at two WMO Regional Meteorological tion. Training Centres (RMTCs) in Barbados and San Rounding off our feature articles in this issue is Jose, Costa Rica, within the framework of the WMO "The global climate system in 1996", which begins initiative "training the trainers". The article "Satellite with the caption "not as warm as in 1995". meteorology applications: a demon stration project The twelfth session of the Commission for for Regional Meteorological Training Centres" by Marine Meteorology met in Havana, Cuba, in March James Purdom describes how the "regional and 1997. A summary report starts on page 262.

Cover: The NOAA GOES-8 satellite captured this infra-red image of hurricane Luis over the eastern Caribbean on 6 September 1995 at 1315 UTC. GOES-8 is one of two geostationary operational env'ironmental satellites operated by the USA (see articles on pages 223, 230 and item on page 286).

Photo: NOAA/NESDIS

208 THE BULLETIN INTERVIEWS Professor Bo R. Doos

Or Taba recounts: eventually finding employment in a publishing house as a photographer. A year later, when he I have known Bo Doos for about 45 years, ever felt the urge to continue with his studies, the since I was a struggling young student at the only possibility for him to do so was by corre­ University of Stockholm. I attended his lectures spondence. Bo discovered he had a special gift in dynamic meteorology and later on was part for mathematics and physics and, as time of a group under his supervision. We ran the passed, he felt ready to go to university. Fortu­ first series of forecasts based on numerical nately for him, there was an "open university" in weather prediction, a project organized jointly Stockholm, where all courses were accessible by the Swedish Air Force and the University of to everyone . He was fortunate to meet a math­ Stockholm. Later, he was Director of the Joint ematician called Germund Dahlquist, who encour­ WMO/ICSU Planning Staff for the Global Atmos­ aged him with his studies and to enroll at uni­ pheric Research Programme at the WMO versity, formally. In spite of all his qualifications, Secretariat in Geneva, when I was also working Bo did not have the prerequisite official certifi­ there. We enjoyed a close working relationship cate for successful completion of secondary and have remained in touch ever since. school education. So, as he worked to earn his living, Bo embarked on secondary school stud­ Bo 's father was, by all accounts, a special per­ ies, a task which took him three years to ter­ son. As a young man, he travelled a great deal, minate. He would work from 07h30 until17h00 mainly in South America. He returned to Stock­ and then go to evening school from 18h 15 to holm and married in 1918. Bo was born on 21h30. He didn't normally finish his homework 20 February 1922 in a fashionable area of until after midnight. In the spring of 1950 he Stockholm. He enjoyed his first years of ele­ matriculated with good marks. He did not need mentary schooling but the death of his father in to spend much time on mathematics and 1935 affected him a great deal. He lost inter­ physics and concentrated his efforts on history, est in studying and decided to look for a job, an interest which he maintains to this day.

At university, Bo came into contact once again with his friend Dahlquist and some new profes­ sors, notably Erik Hulthen, a professor of physics. One day, Prof. Hulthen called Bo and told him that he had a friend, a professor in meteorology, who had just come back from the USA to establish a Meteorological Institute in Stockholm. His name was Cari-Gustav Rossby and he was looking for talented students, who were good in mathematics and physics, to take up meteorological studies. When Rossby and Bo met, they got on well with one another imme­ diately. Rossby found in Bo the talented student he was looking for and Bo was captivated by Rossby's charm. Whenever Bo had free time he would go to Rossby's institute to attend courses in meteorology given by Bert Bolin1 and a meteorologist from Iceland, Geirmundet Arnason. A couple of years later, in 1953, Bo managed to earn the six credits he needed for his first university degree.

There were few students at the Institute in the early stages and Rossby, who loved teaching, had time at his disposal and Bo was lucky enough to be taught privately by the greatest meteorologist living. Occasionally, one or two other students attended Rossby's lectures but,

Bo Otitis 1 Interviewed WMO Bulletin 37 (4)

209 most of the time, Bo was alone. Rossby asked ine how apprehensive I was about standing in one of the best synoptic meteorologists called front of them and teaching them. lt was hard H6vmeller to give him some training in synoptic analysis and the art of forecasting. Here again, work but my efforts were compensated by the Bo was lucky to receive some personal tuition. favourable comments I received after each lec­ ture. The 1950s were the most important period In the summer of 1953, Rossby introduced Bo for numerical weather prediction and my lectures to a Swedish meteorologist who had just con­ ducted a series of observations in Ostersund had to be oriented towards this newly emerging !Fr6s6n) on mountain lee-waves. Rossby and Bo interest. We were all aware that, sooner or later, went there for a month's visit. During that time, we would have a computer capable of solving the two men not only studied lee-wave clouds intricate hydrodynamic equations and we had to but also used the opportunity to get to know each other better; they would improvise a class­ be prepared for that event. room scene and take turns to play the roles of professor and student. Rossby 's son, Thomas, joined them and Bo helped him with his mathe­ H. T. -What was the structure of the Insti­ matics. Today, Thomas Rossby is a professor tute in those days? of oceanography in Rhode Island. After his return to Stockholm, Bo realized that he had B.R.D. -We had basically four different sections. chosen his future career. One was dynamic meteorology with Bert Bolin as leader and one dealt with cloud physics, which Or Taba continues: was headed by Claes Rooth. Another section lt was in July 1953 that I met Rossby. As I have was on upper-air studies under George Witt and already written in the prologue to the first volume another was on atmospheric chemistry. Rossby of Bulletin Interviews (WMO-No . 708), Rossby brought to the Institute a brilliant and original sci­ told me that he had a brilliant student whom he would ask to help me. When I saw Bo D66s, I entist, Erik Eriksson, who taught agriculture at liked him immediately. My Iranian qualifications the University of Uppsala. He and Rossby were not recognized by Swedish universities embarked on the establishment of a network of but, thanks to 8o's valuable assistance and stations for observing atmospheric carbon diox­ Rossby's intervention, I was admitted. So Bo rendered me an invaluable service. My life at ide and the chemical content of rainwater. Stockholm University was not easy; except for Rossby rightly felt that those observations would meteorology, all topics were taught in Swedish, have enormous scientific value. but Bo was always there to help me.

Just before the beginning of the academic year H. T. - Could you say something about the 1953/1954, Rossby asked Bo to teach dynamic activities of the Institute in the field of meteorology at the university. Bo was appalled by the prospect but, in his usual persuasive way, numerical weather prediction in those Rossby assured him that the best way to learn days? a subject was to teach it. The prognosis was correct and Bo turned out to be an excellent teacher: B.R.D.- Rossby was aware that the first gen­ as one of his students, I can testify to that. eration of computers would not be able to han­ dle the integration of equations of complicated I was happy to see Bo again to conduct this interview, which took place in Vienna, Austria, atmospheric models. He approached the prob­ in February 1997. lem, therefore, by imagining a simple atmos­ phere represented by the so-called barotropic model; a homogeneous, incompressible fluid, closed between two rigid levels. Rossby's con­ H. T. -You had hardly finished the first viction that even such an elementary model phase of your meteorological training could be used to predict large atmospheric when Rossby asked you to teach dynamic motion proved perfectly correct. meteorology. How did you feel about that? At that time (1953) we had access to a B.R.D. - Rossby had created the International newly built electronic computer (called BESK) Meteorological Institute as part of Stockholm in Sweden. lt was the fastest machine in exis­ University, which was open to all students, what­ tence (compared with today's computers it ever their nationality. They came from all over was extremely slow!). Ours was the first group the world and most of them were more than stu­ in Europe to use a computer for forecasting dents; they were professionals with a consider­ and, suddenly, numerical weather prediction able knowledge of meteorology. You can imag- became the Institute's most important activity.

210 tackle this problem together. The results of our re search were published and have been quoted frequently so I will not go into details except to say that the results of the first analysis were quite satisfactory and comparable with manu­ ally made ones. The stage was therefore set to run numerical weather predictions based on the barotropic model on a routine basis . The Royal Swedi sh Air Force agreed to provide funds for buying computer time and I set up a group con­ sisting of myself, H. Sigtryggson (Iceland), A. Vaisonen (Finland) , A. Wiin-Nielsen (Denmark)3 and H. Taba (Iran) . We started to receive data tape from the Air Force early in the evening and our 24-, 48- and 72-hour forecasts were ready In Canton, China, in 1980 with Bert Bolin (centre) early next morning. and Bill Gibbs

H. T. -In 1958, you went to Florida State H. T. -To what use did you put the BESK? University as research associate . What B.R.D. - Rossby invited Norman Phillips2 from sort of research work did you do there? the USA to come to Stockholm and he and Ger­ B.R.D. -I went to Florida State University, Tal­ mund Dahlquist wrote the first program for the lahassee, USA, with my family in January 1958 barotropic model. Because of its limited mem­ and we stayed one excellent year. I had no for­ ory, we could cover only part of the Atlantic and mal obligations and was free to do my own Europe. We managed to make a realistic 24- research. During this period, I received an invi­ hour forecast and a fairly acceptable 48-hour tation to visit Los Angeles in June and July. I saw one. Rossby wanted to prepare numerical pre­ a number of eminent scientists there, mainly diction for routine, operational purposes and to summer visitors, some of whom I knew before. run a series of forecasts in order to compare In Tallaha ssee and Lo s Angeles I worked on two the results with conventional methods and asked papers dealing with lee-waves and the impact of me to optimize the code to that effect. Together sensible heat on the atmosphere and formulated with Harold Bedient from the US Air Force I had a mathematical theory describing lee-waves . In already made a subjective 500-hPa analysis. We Tallahassee , I got to know Prof. Werner Baum, read out grid-point values of geopotential height who later became dean of the faculty, and Sey­ from it, prepared a paper-tape of the data, ran mour Hess, who became head of department. a 24-hour prediction and succeeded in finalizing the computations prior to the validation time. We were pleased with our achievement and sent H.T. - You left the University In 1960 and Rossby, who was in the USA, a telegram inform­ went to the Swedish Meteorological and ing him that the first operational barotropic fore­ Hydrological Institute (SMHI): why? cast had been made. B.R.D.- During the early 1960s, some national Meteorological Services were using numerical H. T. -At what stage did you design the weather prediction on a routine basis. I was able system for objective analysis by computer? to convince Dr Alf Nyberg4, Director of SMHI, that numerical weather prediction had reached B.R.D. -My compatriot, Tor Bergeron, was an the stage of being able to compete with conven­ excellent meteorologist and a capable map ana­ tional forecasting methods and wanted to inves­ lyst but he wa s sceptical of numerical weather tigate the matter in earnest. He asked me to prediction and even more of objective analysis . join his institute and, although I was reluctant to He and I had numerous arguments with Rossby. Pall Bergthorsson from Iceland and I decided to 3 Secretary-General, WMO, 1980-1983 4 President, WMO, 1963-1971; interviewed WMO 2 Interviewe d WMO Bulletin 44 (3) Bulletin 33 (4)

211 leave a good job at the University, I accepted his me to write a report on the status of numerical offer. I started to gather a number of competent weather prediction worldwide-an onerous people around me (including Lennert Bengts­ task . I submitted my report in 1970. son, who later became director of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) H. T. -For the next 12 years, from 1971 and, within a year 's time, we had our product, to 1982, you were Director of the Joint the routine numerical weather prediction . To Planning Staff for GARP in Geneva. Would begin with, SMHI did not have its own computer you relate some of the highlights of your and we had to buy computer time from a pri­ work? vate firm located at a certain distance from the institute, which was rather inconvenient. B.R.D- When I started work in Geneva on 2 January 1971 , I realized I had been right to be apprehensive. My predecessor, Prof. Rolando H. T. -In 1962 you received the degree of Garcfa5 was an outstanding person, an excel­ Doctor of Science. What did you present lent scientist, a capable administrator and a as your thesis? Did you get the gun salute? competent diplomat. I had to work almost 20 B.R.D. -Back at Stockholm University, I con­ hours a day. The main task my small group of tinued the work I had started in Florida on lee­ staff and I had was to serve the JOC, which was waves and the impact of sensible heat on the chaired by Bert Bolin, and, in particular, to pre­ atmosphere, and produced two more papers on pare for the various GARP experiments. We had the effects of non-adiabatic heating. I had to to plan the establishment of numerous observa­ defend my thesis against Erik Eliassen (Den­ tion networks, foresee the need for equipment mark) and was awarded the mark docent, which and find the necessary resources. I had to learn is the highest academic distinction in Sweden. the art of fund raising, solving diplomatic prob­ As I received the traditional top hat and lems, discussing questions related to bilateral willow leaves, a signal was made to a navy boat and multilateral agreements and, at the same moored on the river and the canon was fired­ time, act as a scientist. Fortunately, I had some a noisy business! excellent collaborators, such as Valentin Meleshko (USSR), Thomas Thompson (Sweden) and our eminent administrative assistant, Mary H. T. -After SMHI, you returned to univer­ Stanojevic. The members of the JOC were out­ sity. What sort of appointment did you standing scientists representing all fields, such have? as Victor Antonovic Bugaev, Pierre Morel, Alex­ B.R.D. - I had finished my job at SMHI and wanted ander Oboukhov6, P. R. Pisharoty, Bill Priestley7, to continue my research . Bert Bolin left for France John Sawyers, Joseph Smagorinsky9, Robert to take up the post of Director of Research of Stewart and Verner Suomi 1D. Preparing for the the European Space Research Organization and meetings of the JOC, which were often held I replaced him for approximately two years as twice a year, was in itself a big task. Since it Director of the International Meteorological Insti­ was impossible to do all the work with the small tute . One day, I was informed that I had been group of staff I had, I fortunately had recourse appointed professor of a special chair at the to the services of consultants and had little diffi­ University, established by the National Science culty finding good ones, since everybody wanted Council of Sweden. lt was fantastic to have the to be associated with GARP. position and salary of a professor but no spe­ cific obligation other than research. H. T. - How would you describe the main From 1964 onwards, I became involved in motivation behind GARP? international activities. Perhaps the most important was the international conference in Skeppar Holmen, Sweden, in 196 7, at which 5 Interviewed WMO Bulletin 36 (l) the foundations for the Global Atmospheric 6 Interviewed WMO Bulletin 37 (2) Research Programme (GARP) were laid. I was 7 Interviewed WMO Bulletin 31 (4) also elected vice-president of the WMO Com­ 8 Interviewed WMO Bulletin 46 (2) mission for Atmospheric Sciences. The Joint 9 Interviewed WMO Bulletin 32 (4) Organizing Committee (JOC) of GARP engaged 10 Interviewed WMO Bulletin 36 (4)

212 Bo Otitis with other members of the Joint Planning Staff for GARP

B.R.O. -Around 1960, scientists realized that H. T. -With the enormous responsibilities the main obstacle to the further development you had during your work with GARP, did of numerical weather prediction was the lack of you experience any particular national or adequate observations, in particular over political problems? remote areas and the oceans. The question was raised as to whether it would be possible B.R.O. - There were plenty of problem s, and to have, even for a short period of time , a net­ some relatively important ones. We had to explain work of ob serving stations everywhere-on the to, and convince , most of the participating surface of the globe, in the ocean and within countries why GARP was so important. A num­ the atmosphere at all latitudes and even in ber of them were intimidated by the mere size outer space . With all the information from such and extent of the programme. The question a network, it would be possible to test different I had to answer constantly during my numerous numerical models. This was the main motiva­ visits to countries all over the world was what tion behind the First GARP Global Experiment the benefits were to them. (FGGE) and the reason for carrying out related Two events of a political nature spring to experiments such as the GARP Atlantic Tropical mind. One concerned fund-raising for FGGE . We Experiment and the Monsoon Experiments . To were short of a few million dollars and I pre­ achieve this aim, we had to have at our dis­ sented my ideas to several important people in posal, in addition to the WMO World Weather Saudi Arabia , who agreed to provide US$ 3 mil­ Watch, other new and sophisticated equipment, lion . Some time later, back in Geneva, an apolo­ including geostationary and polar-orbiting satel­ getic letter arrived, requesting us to accept lites, a system of approximately 300 constant­ US$ 1 million. I wa s disappointed, yet nonethe­ level balloons, 250 ocean buoys, carrier bal­ less grateful for a still generous offer. Two loons, 60-70 ships equipped with radiosondes years later, I saw one of the key persons with and 10 long-range aircraft. GARP was not only whom I had had discussions in Saudi Arabia the biggest scientific programme ever launched, and who had been instrumental in obtaining the it was also an excellent example of interna­ money. He told me the problem had been caused tional collaboration . Looking back, I wonder if it by a typing mistake. In the letter to the govern­ could ever be repeated. mental authorities, instead of US$ 3 million,

213 A few years prior to FGGE , there was con­ cern about the insufficiency of the commitments made . For example, we had great difficulties in obtaining comm itments of ships for upper-air observations in the equatorial tropics . Certainly, one of the important sources for obtaining con­ tributions to this component of the FGGE global observing system was the fleet of oceano­ graphic research ve ssels. I was well aware, how­ ever, that the oceanographic community would most likely be reluctant to place their ships where we meteorologists needed them. So I invited the internationally respected oceanog­ 11 At a party In Geneva to commemorate Bo's retirement rapher, Henry Stommel , to Geneva. I explained from WMO, with Valentin Meleshko the situation to him and he instantly realized Photo: Pauline N icho/Js the advantages of a close collaboration between oceanographers and meteorologists in this three million riyals had been written-the equiv­ regard. In a short time, he succeeded in pro­ alent of US$ 1 million. viding scientific motivation for oceanographic The other occurred during FGGE. I received observations in the equatorial band (10°N-l0°S). a telex from the captain of a dedicated observ­ I also visited some key countries, and, with the ing ship , informing us that hi s vessel had been aid of what perhaps could be called unconven­ detained by the local authorities. Alii co uld do tional quiet diplomacy, I succeeded in getting was to tell the ship's crew to continue observa­ the required commitments . tions, even if they were detained in the harbour. After a week's diplomatic efforts we managed H.T. - From 1980 to 1982, you were to get the ship released . Director of the WMO/ICSU Unit for the World Climate Research Programme. In H.T . -What were some of the memorable which way did this assignment vary from events of an operational nature during your duties in connection with GARP? GARP? B.R.O. -As far as the scientific activities B.R.O. -Two such incidents concerned sate l­ were concerned, the objectives were about the lites. The first was that when the Japane se were same as the second objective of GARP, ready to launch their satellite, they did not have namely to improve the physical understanding a suitable launcher rocket and wanted to wait of climate. We arranged a conference in Swe­ until one was available. That was impossible , den in 1976 to study the physical basis of cli­ since the experiment had to be conducted as mate change . In 1980, the First World Climate planned. I finally persuaded them to send their Conference was organized jointly by WMO, satellite to the USA for launching and we had it ICSU, UNEP and UNESCO . An important out­ in orbit on schedule . come and certainly the most important recom­ Another concerned the launch of a TIROS mendation of the Conference was the estab­ satellite just before FGGE. Thi s satellite was li shment of the World Climate Programme. extremely important, since it carried instruments Ea ch of the sponsori ng parties to the Confer­ necessary for data-location and collection sys­ ence realized that climate-related activities tems for the two most important observing were becoming the most important domain of systems, namely ocean buoys and constant­ the future. At that time , each organization level balloons. Failure would have meant not wanted to have its own climate programme . I having data from half the globe. Something saw the imminent danger of scattering efforts indeed went wrong and the satellite was not and brought the problem to the attention of Or stab le in its orbit. We were scared and even Robert M. White 12 (USA), who had been Direc- thought of postponing the Experiment but a technician performed an almost impo ssible 11 Interviewed WMO Bulletin 40 (2) task and stabilized the satellite. 12 Interviewed WMO Bulletin 30 (1)

214 tor of the First World Climate Conference, and H. T. -Why did you go to the USA in 1986? he saw the danger immediately. A meeting was B.R.D. -In the summer of 1986, I met Alan arranged in the Secretary-General's office Hecht in Geneva, who headed the US National with, among others, Robert White, Bill Gibbs 13 Climate Programme Office. He asked me if (Australia) and Yuri lzrael 14 (USSR). After that I would help them formulate a new five-year plan . meeting, we had a clear idea that our aim was I expressed surprise at his proposal, consider­ a joint WMO/UNEP ICSU World Climate Pro­ ing the wealth of expertise in the USA. He gramme with four components (Research, replied that too many agencies were interested Data, Applications and Impacts) and I became in questions related to climate change and that the Director of the office for this programme. what was required was an outsider with neutral One of my first activities in this capacity was and objective knowledge and views. The descrip­ to convene a small group of scientists to a tion fitted me and I accepted the offer. lt turned meeting in Villach , Austria, in November 1980, out to be a most interesting experience. First to discuss the imminent consequences of the of all, it was a great pleasure working with Alan increasing atmospheric concentration of car­ and my contacts with 17 different governmen­ bon dioxide. lt was the first international tal agencies. I had to prepare a concerted plan, assessment of the greenhouse gas issue and acceptable to all concerned for submission to was followed by many others. US Congress and the President. My contacts with the various US agencies were similar to H. T. - In 1982, you returned to Stockholm. dealing with different nations . I had to use all What did you do? my diplomatic skills to get their agreement. lt was quite an interesting experience to see how B.R.D. -I left Geneva in 1982 because I had the US administrative system functioned. My reached retirement age in WMO, which was then stay in the USA was supposed to be for six 60 years. Back in Stockholm, I was appointed months but lasted two years. manager of a more extensive assessment of the greenhouse gas issue, jointly sponsored by WMO, ICSU and UNEP. The outcome of this pro­ H.T . -From 1988 to 1992 you were vided the base for the second international con­ Deputy Director of the International Insti­ ference in Villach in 1985. The assignment tute for Applied Analysis (IIASA) in Laxen­ lasted until 1986. burg, Austria. What did your work involve? B.R.D. -Bob Pry, Director of IIASA, offered me H.T. -In 1983, you became a member of a job as leader of its environment programme . the Swedish Academy of Sciences. Would IIASA is an international institute whose main you expand on this? purpose is to create a bridge between west and B.R.D. - I was most happy to receive thi s high east. lt has several sections; I became leader distinction=. The Swedish Academy is one of the of the Environment Programme Section, dealing oldest in the world, founded in 1739. lt provides, with questions such as biosphere dynamics, for­ on request, scientific guidance and advice to the est and water resources and transboundary air Government and selects Nobel Prize winners in pollution. I had excellent colleagues and thor­ physics and chemistry. lt also selects the winner oughly enjoyed my work. After a few months, of the prize in economic science in memory of I accepted Bob Pry's offer to be his deputy, Alfred Nobel. The King of Sweden is not only the while maintaining my scientific responsibilities. patron of the Academy but often participates in Once again, I became involved in the problem the meetings, which take place about every two of fund-raising and visited many countries. The weeks. Whenever there is a lecture on the envi­ USA was a member of IIASA but had not paid ronment, it is almost certain that he will be there. its dues. Bob Pry and I went to Washington DC to lecture on, and preach about, the virtues of the IIASA. AI Gore, later Vice-President of the USA, suggested that we should draft a letter 13 Interviewed WMO Bulletin 34 (3) from him to the President, which we did, and 14 Interviewed WMO Bulletin 45 (1) the President agreed to our proposals . Alto­ 15 Interviewed WMO Bulletin 44 (2) gether, it was a successful mi ssion .

215 Bo Otitis with other participants in the Internati onal Conference on Scientific Results of the Monsoon Experiment (Denpasar, Bali , 26-30 October 198 1)

H.T- Why did you leave IIASA in 1992? and committing funds. Governments have to deal with more immediate difficulties, suc h as B.R,D, - In 1992, Bob Pry left IIASA and unemployment and other social issues, and I am returned to the USA. The new Director was not not optimistic that environmental degradation so keen on activities on a global scale and I felt will be given adequate attention in the near the time had come for me to change and, par­ future . Let us take the case of emissions of ticularly, to do some research work. I had a few greenhouse gases . Some countries claim they other assignments but wanted above all to will be able to stabilize the emission of the se establish a base for myself. I established my gases. Of course, one has to recognize that this own organization, called Global Environmental only implies that their concentration will continue Management, which has been approved by the increasing at the same rate as before . Some Austrian authorities. industrialized nations are claiming that they intend to reduce emissions by 20 per cent but, H. T. - In your opinion, which aspects of even if they do so, this is far from sufficient. the environment need the urgent attention Population is increasing, developing countries of the younger generation? have to improve their living standards and, inevitably, they increase emissions, otherwise B.R.D. -All environmental issues need atten­ they could not achieve any significant develop­ tion. Some, such as climatic change, deforesta­ ment. In the long run, therefore, it is likely there tion , depletion of the ozone layer and chemical will be significant climatic change . pol lution, are already receiving considerable attention. Other important issues, however, such H.T. -What are the environmental problems as water resources, water quality and so il threatening food production? degradation are, in my opinion, not being given sufficient priority. All these problems are B.R.D.- Environmental degradation is not yet brought to the attention of governments which, a serious cause of shortage of food and starva­ while agreeing, give little positive response. For tion. The reason there are so many sta rving example, it is often claimed that our present people today is not because there is not enough scientific knowledge is not sufficient to motivate food; the real reason for starvation is poverty­ expensive response measures. Unfortunately, people can simply not afford to buy food. As there is often also a lack of agreement among regards the effects of environmental degrada­ the scientists themselves. Some even declare tion on food production, there are at present that we have no problems and governments use two groups of sc ientists dealing with this prob­ such statements to avoid taking positive action lem . Some are alarmist and the others over-

216 optimistic. lt is amazing to note what an enor­ mous difference exists between the two groups as regards their estimates for food production . They seldom look into all the factors: they select a few and overlook the others. Part of the rea­ son it has so far been possible to increase food production to keep up with a larger population ha s been the increased use of fertilizers and enhanced irrigation but these two courses of action have certain limits. Soil degradation and shortage of water are likely to be the main threats to food production in the future. Another comment on this issue: it appears in many studies of this problem that one has difficulties in distinguishing between what is theoretically possible and what can be achieved realistically.

H. T. -What are you doing nowadays? B.R.D. - Since leaving IIASA, I have participated Bo Oti ti s in the GARP Office, WMO Secretari at, in a project to study the consequences of a in 1974 sea-level rise in Bangladesh . I have also been engaged by the Austrian Ministry of Environ­ factors (for example socio-economic) have a ment to provide advice in connection with their low predictability. Nevertheless, this does not attempts to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions . exclude the outcome of such a study being For the moment, I am engaged in the useful for further planning aimed at safeguard problem we just talked about, future food pro­ global food security. duction. Together with a Canadian colleague, Dr Roderick Shaw, I am trying to make a realis­ tic estimate of the extent to which it is possible to predict the availability of food in the different H.T . - lt has been a pleasure to see you regions of the world. Clearly, we cannot expect again and to relive some memorable to reach a definite reliable answer to this ques­ moments of what was an exciting period tion , simply because some of the influencing in meteorological history.

THE EUMETSAT POLAR SYSTEM OBSERVATIONS FROM SPACE IN THE 21ST CENTURY

By Tillmann MOHR*

A historical perspective Germany, Finland, France, Greece, Ireland, EUMETSAT, the European Organisation for the Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites, was Sweden , Switzerland, Turkey and the United created in 1986 and now has 17 European Kingdom) . The primary objective of EUMETSAT, Member States (Austria, Belgium, Denmark , as set out in its Convention, is to establish, maintain and exploit European systems of meteorological satellites, taking into account, • Director, EUMETSAT as far as possible, the recommendations of the

217 World Meteorological Organization. A revised The future Convention, nearing full ratification, adds a fur­ Assuming that Europe would take its share of ther objective that is to contribute to the opera­ the future observing system, the USA has given tional monitoring of climate and the detection notice that, from early in the next century, the of global climate change. Through this charter, National Oceanic and Atmo spheric Administra­ EUMETSAT has the additional mandate to pro­ tion (NOAA) will provide coverage from only one vide operational servi ces for Europe concerned polar-orbiting satellite passing over the Equator with the long-term monitoring of the Earth, its in the afternoon. In 1992, EUMETSAT imple­ atmosphere and the oceans. mented a preparatory programme that estab­ In achieving its objectives, EUMETSAT has lished the formal framework for initial activities been re sponsible, since January 1987, for the aimed at developing a EUMETSAT Polar Sys­ constant provision of half-hourly image data in tem (EPS) . The objective of EPS is to provide three spectral bands from its geostationary satellites with a morning Equator crossing time METEOSAT satellites. To ensure continuity of the (09h30) in order to assure the continuity of six­ service, a new satellite system, the METEOSAT hourly data. The EPS will be a component of a Second Generation (MSG) is being developed joint European/US sate llite system, known as for launch in the year 2000. MSG will provide the Initial Joint Polar System, ensuring data data in 12 spectral channels at intervals of 15 compatibility through exchange of instruments. minutes. The system will include the launch of Later, the USA plans to merge its civilian and three satellites and the development of a new military meteorological satellite systems and ground system. The current METEOSAT system will then provide a second morning orbit. By wi ll provide coverage until MSG is operational. thi s, the final Joint Polar System will be formed, Since the launch in 1960 by the USA of based on one EUMETSAT and two USA satellites. the first meteorological satel lite, there have been considerable advances in observing sys­ The EPS programme tems and in the models that use the data so The current status of EPS provided. Although meteorological satellites have had a relatively short existence, the vol­ The development of a meteorological satellite ume of their data with global coverage is mak­ system is complex and has involved well over ing a significant contribution to operational five years of carefully coordinated study, inves­ meteorology, land use, ocean stud ie s and cli­ tigation and planning by EUMETSAT and the mate monitoring. European Space Agency (ESA). During the pre­ The USA has maintained two civilian oper­ paratory phase of the programme, many refine­ ational meteorological satellites in complemen­ ments were made to the instrument payload tary polar orbits since 1977. These have provided and , in 1996, the financial ceiling for the EPS a valuable source of global data at intervals of programme was set at ECU 1.569 billion (US$ approximately six hours. Thi s period of obser­ 1. 779 billion) , with an additional financial con­ vation is a well-established requirement for both tribution from ESA. meteorology and climatology. The detailed The EPS Resolution, defining all aspects atmospheric profiles provided by polar-orbiting of the Programme, was opened for voting by systems are complemented by a series of the EUMETSAT Council in December 1996 and meteorological satellites in geostationary orbit. Member States are expected to approve it in A global system of these geostationary satel­ the coming months . Until full approval of the lite s is supported by EUMETSAT, India , Japan, programme is attained, essential preparatory the Russian Federation and the USA. China activities are taking place within special bridg­ plans to launch a geostationary system in the ing arrangements authorized by the EUMETSAT near future as well. Both the polar-orbiting and Council. the geostationary satellites provide the space­ based component of the Global Observing Sys­ The EPS programme content tem of WMO's World Weather Watch. The provi­ The EPS programme include s provision for the sion of data from all meteorological satellite construction and launch of three METOP satel­ systems is well coordinated through the aus­ lites (the first launch being planned for the end pices of the WMO and the Coordination Group of the year 2002), the development of the cor­ for Meteorological Satellites. responding ground infrastructure and provision

218 for routine operations over a period of 14 years segment and take full responsibility for the from the date of the first launch. overall system and its operation; and will procure the launch services; The METOP satellites • The National Centre for Space Studies The three METOP satellites of the EPS pro­ (France) will provide the DCS-Argos facility gramme will be adapted from existing technol­ and the infra-red atmospheric sounding ogy developed by ESA and will have an overall interferometer (IASI) instrument developed mass of about 4.4 tonnes. Successive satel­ in cooperation with EUMETSAT; lites will be available within 18 months of the nominal launch of their predecessors, normally • NOM will provide a microwave temperature scheduled at intervals of 4.5 years. The satel­ sounder (AMSU-A), an infra-red sounder of lites will fly in Sun-synchronous polar orbit at a the current generation (HIRS), a visible/ mean altitude of 840 km, circling the Earth infra-red imager (AVHRR), the Space Envi­ every 102 minutes and crossing the Equator at ronment Monitor and the Search and Res­ 09h30 local time. cue facility (the latter humanitarian mission in cooperation with France and Canada). The EPS ground infrastructure Global data stored on board METOP will be downloaded as it passes close to the EUMET­ SAT Polar Command and Data Acquisition Sta­ tion. The data will then be transmitted by high­ speed links to the EUMETSAT central facilities in Darmstadt, Germany, for processing and dis­ tribution. Data from blind orbits, if any, will be acquired through a NOM station in Fairbanks, Alaska, which will also serve as a back-up . This is through a bilateral agreement, which will ensure access to data from both the EUMET­ SAT and NOM polar-orbiting satellites. An arti st's impression of the METOP satellite. The EUMETSAT central facilities will pre­ process the global data and have certain func­ The instrument payload tions related to long-term quality control. Mete­ Each METOP satellite will carry a comprehen­ orological products will be generated , not only sive payload of 11 instruments (see table over­ in the central processing facility, but also in leaf) together with various communications Satellite Application Facilities located at various systems. These will support normal satellite centres across Europe . These EUMETSAT facil­ telemetry and satellite command functions, as ities will be complemented by user-owned sta­ well as the downloading of global data to a tions designed to receive either of the two EUMETSAT ground station and the continuous direct broadcast channels transmitted continu­ broadcast of data to local user stations . ously by METOP. By receiving either the low­ EPS will address international requirements resolution picture transmissions or the high-res­ and is established within the framework of sev­ olution picture transmissions, the user will gain eral key agreements: access several times each day to much of the METOP and NOM data over an area extending • EUMETSAT and ESA will jointly develop the more than 1 000 km around the local station. METOP spacecraft, together with the wind scatterometer (ASCAT), ozone monitoring Applications of EPS instrument (Global Ozone Monitoring Exper­ The atmosphere iment (GOME)) and the GPS-based limb A primary function of EPS is to monitor the glo­ sounder (GRAS); bal atmosphere. Through its operational sound­ EUMETSAT will procure the microwave ing capability and two new instruments (MHS humidity sounder (MHS) for the METOP and IASI), EPS will supply global temperature and NOM satellites; will develop the ground and humidity data with unprecedented accuracy

219 Payload of the METOP satellites of the EUMETSAT Polar System (''Updated instruments pl anned for METOP-3)

In strument Full name Fun ction

AMSU-A"' Advanced Microwave Measuring the temperature of the global Sounding Unit-A atmosphere in all weather conditions MHS Mi crowave Humidity Sounder Measuring the humidity of the global atmosphere HIRS High Resolution InfraRed Operati onal measurement of the temperature Sounder of the global atmosphere in cloud-free conditions IAS I Infrared Atmospheri c Sounding Enhanced sounding of the global atmosphere Interferometer GRAS Global Nav igation Satellite Measuring the temperatures of the upper System Receiver for atmosphere with hi gh vertical resolution Atmospheric Sounding AVHRR* Advanced Very Hi gh Resolution Global imagery of clouds, the ocean and land Radiometer surfaces with 1.1 km resolution at nadir DCS-Argos Data Coll ecti on Sys tem-Argos Locating platforms on the surface or in the atmosphere and relaying environmental data GOME-Y Global Ozone Monitoring Measuring profiles of ozone and other con­ Experiment-2 stituents in the upper atmosphere AS CAT Advanced Scatterometer Measuring the near-surface wind speeds over the global oceans SEM Space Environment Monitor Sensing the flu x of charged particles from the solar plasma S&R Search and Rescue Alerting emergency services and helping to locate source throughout the entire depth of the atmosphere . stop jet engine s) and also becau se major erup­ These improved data are an absolute require­ tions are one cause of climate change . ment for further improvements in global numeri­ cal weather prediction (NWP). Through its imag­ The land surface ing mission, EPS will provide global maps of Beside s cloud and storm images, the imaging cloud cover, vital for both meteorology and cli­ mission to be carried on the EPS METOP satel­ mate monitoring and for th e detection and track­ lite s ha s a wide range of additional applications. ing of severe storms anywhere in the world. In the forefront of the se is the ability to monitor Detail s of such storms will be further enhanced vegetation growth, in particular, during the active by EPS through the ability to measure surface growing season . Through this capability, crop winds even in the presence of clouds . Imagery yields will be estimated, with important economic products such as the multispectral image on the and humanitarian implications. page opposite will be available from the EPS . The extent of snow cover can also be Concern about the destruction of ozone in assessed , with important implications for water the upper atmosphere has prompted intergov­ runoff, hydrological power supplies, transport ernmental action because of the increase in and tourist activities and as an indicator of, and ultraviolet radiation reaching the Earth and the contributor to, climate change. impact on global warming . EPS will continu­ ou sly monitor the distribution of ozone (and The ocean surface other trace elements) in th e upper atmosphere By virtue of their va st heat capacity and heat and provide an independent check on the suc­ transport through deep currents, the oceans cess of control measures. The imaging mission are an integral and important component of the will also enable the detection and monitoring of global climate and weather systems. The El volcanic activity anywhere in the world to pro­ Nifio/ Southern Oscillation is an important exam­ vide warnings for aviation (volcanic dust can ple of the way in which changes in ocean circu-

220 Multi-spectral image deri ved from NOAA AVHRR data (from Trevor Smithers)

DDDDDDD· r:J-DD •140 •160 180 200 22Q 240 280 200 SOO 320 3~ 300 SBO 400 420 DU

Assimilated total ozone at OOhOO on DDDDDDD. DD •!40 •ISO 180 200 220 240 280 200 300 320 SW 300 SBO 400 420 DU 13 October 1996

Assimilated total ozone a1 OOhOO on 2 1 December 1996

The huge seasonal variati ons in ozone wi ll be monitored by EPS: images from the GOME instrument nown on ESA's ERS-2 (courtesy A. Piters)

221 lation have a profound impact on the inter-sea­ winds for OOhOO on 20 October 1996 in which sonal climate in near and distant parts of the the circulation of tropical storm Lili was not world. EPS will contribute to the monitoring of well identified . Th e following two illustrations such effects by measuring sea-surface temper­ show the correspond ing wind observations and atures and low-level wind vectors over the observation increments obtained from the scat­ oceans . As well as the application to climate terometer instrument on ESA's ERS-2 satellite. monitoring, the sea-surface temperature and The resulting analysis, shown in the final figure, low-level wind data are a significant input to was much more precise and enabled the global NWP models. In addition, the EPS mis­ ECMWF model to predict with more accuracy sions wi ll have other capabilities, including the the development of Lili. The EPS ASCAT instru­ mapping of ocean ice cover (important for ship­ ment will provide simi lar data for use in NWP. ping and climate monitoring). The considerable value of low-level winds Data collection and location derived from satellite data over the oceans is The observational capabilities of the METOP well demonstrated by the four figures below. satellites will be complementary to surface­ The first shows the ECMWF model first-guess based measurements, often obtained from data

First guess 96102000 ObseNations

,2S.Om/~ I 70'W SO'W - - 70'W so'W I"·' m/; I .-~~-,------,------~

30"N 30cN .I ~~

I ?- ~"' -L '/\ \ \\ I2D"N 20'N I 7 :> "' --L S': i l! I20' N

Analysis 96102000 ObseNation increments

125.omt; 1 25.0mf: I 7oew SO'W 70'W 1 60'W .-~~------,------, .-~~-,------.------,

!-----+~21J..---!------j 30'N ~---+::;:::----+---_j 30'N

-'. 20°N 20'N I 7 :> "' -L S'':l. \ I I 20'N

70'W 60'W 70'W SO'W

Low-level winds ove r the ocean deri ved from ERS-2 scatterometer data (illusr rarion courresy ECMWF) 222 platforms in remote locations or free to drift mental monitoring and many related disciplines. with the currents. EPS provides communica­ Much of the benefit of EPS will arise indirectly tions support for such platforms through DCS­ through improved weather forecasts and Argos, which is also able to determine the loca­ increased data for climate monitoring and the tion to within less than 150 m. Miniature prediction of climate change. Improvements transmitters of 20 g are also used to track a within these disciplines can have enormous eco­ wide variety of wildlife, helping us to learn how nomic consequences. At the European level, this animals solve complex navigation problems arises from the industrial implications of weather during migration and helping the conservation and climate change whereas, at the global level, of endangered species . the benefits are more fundamental, affecting the survival of populations from the effects of The benefits of EPS severe storms, droughts or change in climate. The main benefit of EPS is that. with the polar­ EPS will therefore provide a resource of great orbiting meteorological satellites of the USA, it economic value , both to the Member States of will help ensure the continuity, enhance the qual­ EUMETSAT and to the many developing coun­ ity, and improve the availability of, global data tries and other States around the world which needed for meteorology, climatology, environ- will receive, and benefit from, the data. o

NOAA SATELLITE PROGRAMMES: NEW ADVANCES FOR THE 21sT CENTURY

By Robert S. WINOKUR*

Introduction with a 30-plus year heritage of successful ser­ vice: the NOM Polar-orbiting Operational Envi­ NOM environmental satellites have been pro­ ronmental Satellites (POES), and the Depart­ viding continuous observations of the Earth ment of Defense's (DoD) Defen se since 1960. The se highly successful satellites Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) . continue today to provide a variety of meteoro­ Recent political changes in the world and logical, oceanographic, climatic and spec ialized declining agency budgets prompted a re-exami­ data-collection services from both geostation­ nation of combining the two systems. In 1993, ary and polar orbits. As we move into the next influenced by increased Congressional interest century, NOM's satellite programmes will con­ and following recommendations contained in the tinue to advance with new missions and new National Performance Review, NOM, DoD and capabilities. In this article, I will concentrate on the National Aeronautic s and Space Administra­ three of our most exciting advancements: the tion (NASA) began studying how to converge the new converged polar-orbiting satellite pro­ two systems. The completed study revealed that gramme, the Advanced TIROS Operational Verti­ a converged system could reduce duplication cal Sounder (ATOVS). and new imaging and and bureaucracy, substantially cut costs and sounding capabilities from geostationary orbit. satisfy both civil and military requirements for The National Polar-orbiting Operational operational environmental data . The study also Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS): showed the potential for additional savings and the future Polar-orbiting Meteorological benefits by continuing NOM's planned coopera­ Satellite System tion with Europe as a key element of the merger. This tri-agency study formed the basis for the The US Government has traditionally maintained development of the Implementation Plan for a two operational weather satellite system s each Converged Polar-orbiting Environmental Satellite System, issued in conjunction with the Presiden­ Assistant Administrator, National Environmental -Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) tial Decision Directive .

223 On 3 October 1994, NOAA, DoD, and the converged system. Although each agency NASA created an Integrated Program Office provides certain key personnel in their lead (IPO) to develop, manage, acquire , and operate role, each functional division is staffed by tri­ NPOESS. As indicated in Figure 1, the IPO is agency work teams to maintain the integrated located within NOAA and is headed by a System approach. Program Director responsible to the NPOESS As an early step in the convergence pro­ Executive Committee. This Committee, which cess, the command, control, and communica­ includes senior representatives from the three tions function for DOD's existing DMSP satellites agencies, serves as a board of directors to will be combined with the control for NOM's ensure that the overall programme plans meet POES satellites in Suitland, Maryland, in 1998. the needs of the three participating agencies. This combination of control functions will coin­ As detailed in Figure 1, the IPO concept cide with the planned closure of the US Air provides each of the participating agencies with Force Satellite Operational Control Centers at lead responsibility for one of three primary func­ Fairchild Air Force Base in Washington and Offutt tional areas. NOAA has overall responsibility for Air Force Base in Nebraska . This early conver­ the converged system and is also responsible gence of command, control, and communica­ for satellite operations. NOAA is also the primary tions functions for existing satellites is expected interface with the international and civil user to yield additional cost savings and further pro­ communities. DoD is responsible to support the mote the integration of existing programmes. lPO for major systems acquisitions, including The first converged satellite is expected to launch support. NASA has a primary responsi­ be available sometime between the middle and bility for facilitating the development and incor­ latter half of the next de ca de, depending on poration of new, cost-effective technologies into when the current NOAA and DMSP programmed

Executive e GJ Undor Socr.u.y Undor S«:rototy Oopul\'. br br ~oiton & Tochndogy Ocaons&A~ - (i) System Program Director

Associate Director Associate Director For For Acquisition Technology Transition t Integrated Program Office JARG

Users

Figure I - NPOESS organi zati onal relati onships: the Integrated Program Office concept provides participating' agencies with lead responsibility in it s fu nctional area, while maintaining an integrated approach. (Acronyms: JARG-Joint Agency Requirements Group; SUAG-Senior Users Advisory Group; JARC-Joint Agency Requirements Council)

224 satellite assets are exhausted. Figure 2 details performance capability over today's system is the current notional system architecture for the also expected from the synergistic effects of com­ NPOESS programme. As can be seen in Figure 2, bining the now separate polar programmes and NPOESS will provide standard meteorological through expeditious insertion of new technology. data, oceanographic, environmental, climatic, The merger of the NOM and DMSP mete­ space environmental remote-sensing informa­ orological satellite systems into a single, national tion. lt will also continue to provide surface data system capab le of sati sfying both civil and collection and search-and-rescue capability. IPO, national security requirements for space-based in consultation with the NOM and DMSP pro­ remotely sensed environmental data represents gramme offices, is also studying additional a significant and exciting change in the way the potential cost-effective approaches to maximize USA acquires, manage s and operates environ­ user satisfaction during the transition to NPOESS, mental satellites. The merger of the two sys­ while guaranteeing continued non-interrupted tems will be enhanced by the planned coopera­ data services. tion with EUMETSAT in a Joint Polar System . From a resource perspective, the conver­ When the US national system is fully converged gence of civil and military POES is expected to and the cooperation with Europe is in place, yield over US$ 450 million in savings until 2003 the resulting polar satellite system will include and additional savings throughout the life of the a three-sate llite constellation with enhanced system . By combining missions, it is anticipated payloads and an increased user base. The USA that the total number of satellites required under and international communities will continue to NPOESS and their associated ground systems benefit from this new way of doing business will be significantly reduced . Increased system well into the next century. The agencies and

Meteorological, oceanographic. 03 environmental, climatic, and space sensing 01 021

- 3 or more orMal planes ---- . - .. - Remote Sensing, Surlace Data Collection, Search & Rescue i Payloads - Ulilize existing AFSCN ARTS C3 and NOAA CDA tracking stalions , ~,..,. -- (or other available relay assets)

A AA CDAs& FSCN&NO nQ I RTSs ~ j

c::;a ::, ~ ~ ( NESOIS 0 Falcoo·eo AFB-----, --~ ...-( AFGWC 0 . ' - ..... INTERFACE DATA . -- ~ROCESIII;O SEOIIENT

Figure 2- NPOESS notional system architecture: the concept is designed to employ three or more orbital planes (0 1- 03) and integrate remote-sensing, surface data co llection, and search-and-rescue payloads. NPOESS will utilize existing Air Force Satellite Control Network Automated Remote Tracking Stations (AFSCN ARTS), NOAA Command and Data Acquisition (CDA) tracking stations and other available relay assets. (Acron yms: SOC­ Satellite Operations Center; SOCC-Satellite Operation Control Center; C3-Conunand, Control and Commu­ nications; NESDIS-National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service; AFGWC-Air Force Global Weather Central; NAVOCEANO-Naval Oceanographic Office; FNMOC-Fleet Numerical Meteoro­ logical and Oceanographic Center; 50th WS- 50th Weather Squadron; RTS-Remote Tracking Stations)

225 other associated participants involved are wel l two different sca nners as done currently (i .e. on their way to creating a system that will cost MSU and SSU). The horizontal re solution for less and be more re spon sive to user demand s. AMSU s range is from 45 km for AM SU-A to 15 km for AMSU-B. Overall, the horizontal and Advanced TIROS operational vertical ve rti ca l re solution of the AMSU-A temperature sounder (ATOV) measurements is about a factor of three hi gher The launch of the new mi crowave suite on board th an for the current MSU in strument. NOAA-K will significantly improve the radiomet­ The incre ased number of channels, improved ric measurements available from the NOAA polar­ horizontal and vertical resolution of the mea­ orbiting satellites. The NOAA-K microwave suite surements, and the "new" microwave moisture includes two ba sic radiometer s: AMSU-A (USA) sound ing capability provided by the AMSU s will for atmospheric temperature sou nding and result in significant improvements in both atmo­ AMSU-B (United Kin gdom) for generation of spheri c and surface mea surements. The se atmospheric moisture retrieva ls. The 15-chan­ improved measurements tran slate into improved nel AMSU-A temperature sounder is a replace­ derived products, particularly in the troposphere ment for both the current four-c hannel micro­ under cloudy conditions. Within ATOVs, the wave sound ing unit (MSU) , aboard NOAA-12 and AMSU measurements, in conjunction with the NOAA-14, and the three-cha nnel strato spheric HIRS infra-red data, will also provide a much sounding unit (SSU) provided by the United improved capability to detect cloud s, and when Kingdom on bo ard NOAA-14. Currently, the possible, to correct the infra-re d measurements TIROS Operational Vertica l Sounding (TOVS) for cloud contamination. Thus, AM SU will improve system, in corporating the high resolution infra­ the reliability of the infra-red measurements and red sounder (HIRS) and the MSU and SSU data, derived products in clear sky cond itions as we ll. generate the NESDIS global operational cloud­ The introduction of the AMSUs is expected cleare d radiances and derived atmosphe ric to close significantly the gap in the information sounding products. With the launc h of the new content between clear and cloudy atmo spheres AMSUs, a new operational retrieva l system , the for the radiometric and derived surface and Advanced TOVS (ATOVS), will in corporate the atmospheric products. Currently, TOVS itemper­ HIRS and AMSU data together with the AVHRR ature soundi ng errors in the lowe r troposphere imager data (for improved cloud detection) to range from about 2 K to 3 K rms for clear and generate improved NESDIS operational atmo s­ cloudy sound in gs, respectively, using global pheric ra diances and derived products. radiosonde observations as ground truth . Improve­ Th e advantages of this AMSU suite over ments upon deployment of the AM SUs are the MSU are significant. Most importantly, the expected to reduce "cloudy'' sounding errors to current MSU conta in s no moisture-sensitive the current level of the TOVS "clears" (2 K rms), channels. Additionally, for overcast cond itions, while improving the clears to under 2 K rms . The the one MSU surfa ce channel and three atmos­ currently accepted margin of error for rad iosonde pheric temperature channel s must provide the observations is typica lly around 1 K rms. bulk of temperature information between the The most notable improvements, however, su rface and 90 hPa (about 20 km). The vertica l are expected to be for atmospheric moisture resolution of each MSU channel averages 5 km, measurements, wh ich are currently not ava il able with a nom inal horizontal resolution of 100 km. under cloudy condition s. Preliminary results from The AMSU s, on the other hand, contain five the special sensor microwave water vapour dedicated channels for measuring atmospheric sounder on board DMSP, wh ich is simi lar to moisture (AMSU-B), all 11 cha nnel s for mea sur­ AMSU-B but at a lower (48 km) spatial resolu­ in g atmospheric temp erature and surface emis­ tion, indicate 15 per cent accuracies for derived sions over a variety of surface types (AMSU-A1 moisture soundings (that are within 15 per cent) an d A2). The AMSU-B moisture channels provide in the lower troposphere, using global radiosonde information from the surface to about 400 hPa, observations as truth . However, when combined while the AMSU-A spa ns from the surface to with co ll ocated infra-red observation s at a com­ about 1 hPa (or 50 km). In addition, the upper parable horizontal resolution (a s available from strato sphere (and lower mesosphere) channels HIRS) , furth er improvements co uld potentially of AMSU-A repla ce the SSU, removing the need improve the derived moi sture soundings to an for mapped fields to merge measurements from accuracy of 10 per cent or less. Thi s would

226 equal or exceed the generally accepted accu­ can see the limitations of the new sensors. NOM racies associated with radiosonde moisture and forecasters and researchers alike have used provide accurate, global, tropospheric moisture results of their ongoing assessment to refine data under all sky conditions. projected observation requirements that will be The first deployment of the new AMSU-A used to direct the development of the next and AMSU-B instruments on board NOM-K, as a generation of instruments. As NOM's require­ replacement of the MSU (and SSU), will signifi­ ments are honed and validated, engineering cantly improve the surface and atmospheric concept studies aimed at identifying applicable radiometric measurements available from NOM technologies, risks, and costs of sensors to polar-orbiting satellites. The improvement will be meet these requirements will be performed. particularly significant under cloudy sky cond~ NOM has begun such studies related to new tions, and for atmospheric moisture. These imaging technology that has a heritage in space improvements are expected to result in ATOVS­ and defence systems. derived temperature and moisture sounding To meet demands for more frequent views products which equal or exceed the accuracy of rapidly developing severe weather, while sim­ currently available from global radiosonde data ultaneously surveying the entire full-disk view of under all sky conditions . the hemisphere, the next generation GOES will need a more sophisticated, faster imager. Geostationary systems: new capabilities on Detector arrays, rather than single-detector sen­ the horizon sors, are one technology that can help answer Having successfully deployed the first two in a this demand. Linear or rectilinear matrices of series of revolutionary Geostationary Opera­ dozens to hundreds of detectors responsive to tional Environmental Satellite (GOES) space­ the broad spectrum of emitted infra-red radia­ craft in 1994 and 1995, NOM has begun to tion can yield the frequent, multichannel observa­ turn its attention to future geostationary obser­ tions over large areas that future weather diag­ vational requirements. As a nationwide assess­ noses will demand. Full-disk views of the Earth ment of GOES-8 and GOES-9 products proceeds could be scanned in less than 10 minutes , small­ at national weather forecasting centres, field storm areas in less than one minute. Federally offices, and research institutions, scientists funded research and development centres, as and engineers are exploring imager and sounder well as commercial remote-sensing corpora­ concepts rooted in new and emerging technol­ tions, will provide NOM and NASA with the tech­ ogies. Other candidate instruments, such as nological assessment needed to ascertain the passive microwave sensors and lightning map­ desirability of pursuing a focal plane array pers, are also being examined as potential imager for GOES for the 2008-2020 era. future payloads . High-spectral resolution sensing using inter­ The current GOES meteorological payload, ferometers on future GOES could dramatically one that will service NOM and the international improve depiction of atmospheric temperature community through most of the next decade, and moisture variations. The idea of a new gener­ consists of a pair of radiometers. The primary ation of GOES sounders founded in aircraft instrument is the imager, which can provide demonstrations of Michelson interferometers has views of the USA up to eight times per hour been under investigation for over a decade with across one visible and four infra-red bands. The NOAA:s cooperative research institutes, at NASA imager is yielding observations of critical weather and at the Massachusetts Institute of Technol­ never before possible. The GOES sounder is a ogy's (MIT) Lincoln Laboratory. Dramatically 19-channel (18 infra-red, one visible) filter-wheel improved vertical resolution and measurement radiometer that scans the continent and adjacent accuracy afforded by an interferometer on GOES oceans once every hour. Quantitative products would directly improve initial analyses of high-res­ from the imager and sounder, such as winds and olution mesoscale numerical weather prediction soundings, are being used in numerical weather models anticipated in the next decade. Most of prediction and in depictions of atmospheric sta­ the technological risk associated with a GOES bility and moisture at local meteorological and interferometer has been accounted for, and fur­ hydrological forecasting offices. ther preliminary design work continues. Scientists have begun to exploit new, Other studies aimed at gauging the appli­ information-rich GOES products, and already cability of emerging technologies for space-

227 based observations are under way. Lincoln Lab­ oped by NASA. Low-Earth-orbit lightning instru­ oratory has undertaken an intensive concept ments have gathered noteworthy experimental study to determine the feasibility of a geostation­ observations that may point to the need for sim­ ary microwave sensor, which could gather unprece­ ilar operational missions on future GOES space­ dented observations of moisture and precipita­ craft. Studies have been formulated at MIT, in tion distribution and would provide the first concert with NOM and the Federal Aviation soundings of overcast regions from geostation­ Administration, to determine the benefits gained ary orbit. Previous concepts for geostationary by augmenting surface-based lightning detec­ microwave instruments required large antennae tion networks with near-continuous GOES-based and radical technology advances. New technol­ lightning views. NOM will use the results of ogy to acquire passive measurements at higher these analyses to determine if a future GOES frequencies than those of low-Earth-orbit micro­ lightning mapper will be pursued . wave sensors may shrink instrument hardware The overriding goal of NOM's satellite pro­ and antennae to practical size . Before NOM grammes is to provide a continuity of observa­ embarks on the development of such an instru­ tions critical to the meteorological , oceano­ ment, however, cost-benefit analyses must be graphic, and climatic communities. In planning conducted to demonstrate the appropriateness for future missions, NOM will continue to pur­ of the large investment that would be required . sue new technologies and ways of doing busi­ In another area , a conceptual design for a ness in order to fulfil efficiently the observa- geostationary lightning mapper has been devel- tional requirements to meet this goal. o

IMPROVED METEOROLOGICAL FUNCTION OF THE MULTI­ FUNCTIONAL TRANSPORT SATELLITE

By Nobuo SATO *

The Multifunctional Transport Satellite (MTSAT) ment of the meteorological services of Japan is a multipurpose geostationary satellite which and of countries in its coverage area. the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the MTSAT will be launched on an H-11 rocket Japan Civil Aviation Bureau, Ministry of Trans­ by the National Space Development Agency of port, are jointly producing for launch in 1999. Japan . The external appearance of MTSAT is MTSAT will have two functions: the meteoro­ shown in the figure on page 229 and the funda­ logical mission, which will succeed the Geosta­ mental specifications of MTSAT and the meteo­ tionary Meteorological Satellite (GMS) series, and rological mission are shown in Tables I and 11. the aeronautical mission . The two missions will MTSAT will carry one visible (VIS) sensor share the satellite bus, thus saving manufactur­ and four infra-red (IR) sensors. Imagery of cloud ing and running costs and optimizing positions distribution, cloud-top height, sea-surface tem­ of the geostationary orbit. perature, etc., can be retrieved from the signals JMA has been operating the GMS series of these sensors. since 1977 within the global meteorological satel­ The observational function of MTSAT will be lite network as a major component of WMO's improved over that of GMS-5 in the following areas: World Weather Watch 0/#IW) Programme. The • One additionaiiR sensor will improve the meteorological mission of MTSAT will succeed capability to detect night fog and improve the observational function of the GMS series and the accuracy of measurement of sea­ is expected to contribute to the further enhance- surface temperature;

• Head, Office of Meteorological Satellite Planning, • The enhanced resolution and signal quan­ Japan Meteorological Agency tizing will improve the quality of imagery.

228 The Multifunctional Transport Satellite of Japan The cloud imagery obtained with MTSAT way of MTSAT. High-resolution imager data will be used for weather forecasting . In addi­ (HiRID) (instead of S-VISSR on GMS) will be dis­ tion, observed data will be processed to obtain seminated to medium-scale data utilization sta­ various products, such as cloud motion winds, tions. The low rate information transmission precipitable water amounts, satellite nephanaly­ (LRIT) function will di sseminate low-resolution sis information charts and total cloud amounts. digital imagery data to small-scale data utiliza­ Those products will also be used for weather tion stations, while the current analogue WEFAX forecasting and aircraft flight operations . service will continue for the time being. LRIT Imagery data obtained with MTSAT will be will carry grid-point values of the objective anal­ transmitted to the Command and Data Acquisi­ ysis and numerical weather prediction (NWP), tion Station , where various information such as as well as meteorological observation data, in calibration tables will be added. The processed addition to the imagery data. imagery will be disseminated to a number of Mhough the resolution of the MTSAT imager at utilization stations in the Asia-Pacific region by the sub-satellite point will be 1 km for the VIS channel

T ABLE I Major characteristics of MTSAT

Launch August-September 1999 (pl anned) Position Geostationary orbit 35 800 km above the Equator at l40°E Attitude control Three-axis stabilized Full length/weight Approximately 34mll .6 tonnes (at the beginning of the life) Design life Fi ve years for the meteorological mission l 0 years for th e aeronautical mi ss ion

229 T ABLE Il Major characteristics of the MTSAT meteorological mission

Channel VIS IRI IR2 IR3 IR4 Wavelength 0.55- 0.80 I 0.3-11.3 11.5-12.5 6.5- 7.0 3.5-4.0 (J..lm) Resolution I km (VIS), 4 km (IR) at the sub-satellite point Signal quantizing 10 bits for both VIS and IR channels (I 024 gradations) Telecommunication function: Transmi ssion of raw im age data Relay of High Resolution Imager Data (Hi RID) (in pl ace of S-VISSR) Relay of WEFAX and LRIT signal Relay of DCP reports Relay of DCP interrogation Frequency S-band (Receiving: 2 026-2 035MHz, Transmitting: I 677- 1 695MHz) UHF (receiving: 402MHz; transmitting: 468MHz) and 4 km for the IR channels, HiRID imagery will be Moreover, MTSAT will relay to JMA Head­ disseminated with the reduced resolution of 1.25 km quarters meteorological observation data col­ for VIS and 5 km for IR as far as GMS.5 remains on lected from aircraft, ship s, buoys and observing the geostationary orbit as a back-up satellite, in stations located in remote areas, as well as se is­ order to keep the data format from GMS.5 and that mic intensity data obtained with seismic intensity from MTSAT compatible. For the same reason, the meters. lt will also transmit emergency informa­ signal quantizing level for the VIS channel of HiRID ti on on earthquakes and tsunamis from JMA Di s­ will remain 6 bits during the same period, although trict Meteorological Observatories to Local that of MTSAT wi ll be 10 bits. Meteorological Observatories. 0

SATELLITE METEOROLOGY APPLICATIONS: A DEMONSTRATION PROJECT FOR REGIONAL METEOROLOGICAL TRAINING CENTRES

By JAMES F. W. PURDOM *

Introduction ca l satellites and the evolution of multichannel Historically, the USA has been a leader in the datasets, coupled with users becoming increa s­ training of users throughout the world in the ingly sophisticated in their ability to display and application of meteorological satellite data. Over analyse satellite im agery, has resulted in great the years , in cooperation with WMO , NOM's demand for advanced training in the use of National Weather Service (NWS) and National those data . That increased demand, coup led Environmental Satellite Data and Information with a limited number of experts available in the Service (NESDIS) have provided a number of major satellite-operating countries, prompted successful satellite training courses . As one WMO to develop a new training strategy known might expect, the proliferation of meteorologi- as "training the trainers." In November 1995, NESDIS scientists travelled to the Costa Rica Regional Meteorological Training Centre (RMTC) * NOAA/NESDIS and Cooperative In stitute for Re search in the Atmosphere, Colorado State and participated in the first training course under University, Fort Coll ins, Colorado 80523 this new strategy. During the course, Dr Donald

230 Hinsman (WMO) and the author met with Dr all RAMSDIS system s. One CAL module, Intro­ Vilma Castro Le6n (Costa Rica RMTC) and sci­ duction to GOES-8, covers basic capabilities of entists from both the National Meteorological the new GOES series and includes comparison s In stitute and the University of Costa Rica to with the previous generation GOES; the other, explore the possibility of implementing an inno­ GOES-8 3.9 Micron Tutorial" focuses on spec ial vative approach for both training and applied uses of the 3.9 ~m channel. RAMSDIS has sig­ research in satellite data utilization. The collec­ nificantly improved the utility of satellite imagery tive desire was to demonstrate how an RMTC at NWS forecast offices: response from the field could develop considerab le expertise in the uti­ has been exceptional and uniformly positive. In lization of, and training capability with, digital addition to meeting its original goa ls, the RAMS­ GOES satellite imagery by participating in a "vir­ DIS effort has aided in refining advanced GOES tual laboratory" with NOM's Cooperative In sti­ products. The effort has expanded in scope to tute for Re search in the Atmosphere (CIRA) and in clude a number of research-related activities, Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite with applied research activity under way at sev­ Studies (CIMSS). eral NWS forecast offices. Similar to the RAMS­ DIS program, the RMTC virtual laboratory utilizes Background inexpensive PC technology and digital tapes, CD­ The effort was undertaken in the spirit of the ROMS and Internet for data distribution. Although 45th session of the WMO Executive Council, the goals of the RMTC effort are similar in nature wh ich recommended that "each satellite opera­ to those of RAMSDIS, they are, however, more tor ... cooperate with at least one of the special­ aggressive. Because the RMTCs were already ized satellite application s training centres ("cen­ specia li zed satellite applications training cen­ tres of excellence") strategically located around tres ("centres of excellence") the major thrust the globe with regard to the satellite training of the virtual laboratory became: (a) familiariza­ programme, facilities and expertise required" . tion with digital GOES satell ite data and prod­ In this activity, CIRA, CIMSS and the Costa Rica ucts; (b) participation in joint research projects and Barbados RMTCs are participating in a utilizing GOES digital data; and (c) the develop­ demonstration project that is de signed around ment of training cases for use by the RMTC. the concept of a virtual laboratory. The virtual The backbone of the RAMSDIS program is laboratory is modelled after the highly success­ an advanced, menu-driven analysis-and-display ful RAMSDIS ("regional and mesoscale meteor­ system developed at CIRA. Th e system is based ology advanced meteorological satellite demon­ on MciDAS-OS2 and uses state-of-the-art Pen­ stration interpretation system") program (Molenar tium PC technology. The RAMSDIS PCs at the et a/., 1996). The RAMSDIS program uses Inter­ RMTCs are capable of displaying imagery using net for data transfer from a NESDIS server to 256 colours or shades of grey. Images displayed selected NWS offices, where inexpensive com­ on those systems are 480 by 640 picture puter technology is used for imagery display, elements in size. By utilizing computer memory analysis and animation (movie loops). The origi­ (RAM), up to 250 frames of image data are avail­ nal purpose of RAMSDIS was to provide half­ able at any time. The inge st systems contain a hourly digital GOES satellite imagery and prod­ 1.2 GB hard disk drive, while the research ucts to NWS offices for: (a) assessment of data RAMSDIS PCs have larger storage capacity for quality; (b) familiarization with digital satellite data archived case-study and research datasets. and products and establishment of a baseline On the RAMSDIS PCs, real-time GOES-8 for training needs; and (c) improvement in the satellite data loops (visible, 3.9, 6.7 and 10.7 ~m utility of satellite imagery and derived image channels) and products can be viewed by sim­ products. Throughout the programme, CIRA ply pressing a function key. A list of the data provided the expert guidance for NWS field and associated display resolution and ingest offices in the use of the data. An electronic bul­ frequency are shown in the table overleaf. Easy­ letin board allowed participants to share experi­ to-use menu-driven satellite data analysis rou­ ences in the use of sate llite imagery for fore­ tines are also provided on the system. Applica­ casting, while providing a forum for discussion, tions developed by CIRA include routine s to questions and answers. Computer-aided learn­ enhance, combine and improve data interpretation ing (CAL) modules were developed by RAMM/CIRA and analysis. To enhance satellite imagery, the staff (Phillips and Purdom, 1996) and placed on colour look-up table ca n be shifted to highlight

231 GOES imagery loops available on Costa Rica

Data type Display Image Frames Comments resolution frequency in loop

Vi sib le I x I km 30 min 16 Zoom in from 2 x 4 km visible Visible 2 x4km 30 min 16 Internet 3.9 j1m IR 2 x4km 30 min 16 Internet 6.7 j1m IR 2 x4km 30min 16 Zoom in from 4 x 8 km 6.7 11m IR 10.7 11m IR 2 x4km 30min 16 Internet 10.7j1m IR 2 x4km 2-h averages 16 Average of images from 10.7 ingest 6.7j1m IR 16 x 16 km 60 min 24 Internet 6.7 j1m IR 4x 8 km 30 min 16 Internet Fog product 2 x4km 30 min 16 Derived from 3.9 and 10.7 data Refl ectivity product 2x4km 30 min 16 Derived from 3.9 and 10.7 data specific data features such as cloud-top tem­ 1996, GOES-8 data covering eac h RMTC's area peratures. In addition, the cursor can be placed of interest was loaded onto the hard drive of over a cloud top and the minimum , average and the appropriate research RAMSDIS PC , wh ich maximum temperatures beneath th e cursor can was then sent to the RMTC: thi s allowed RMTC be displayed . A time-series of imagery can be staff to become fam iliar with the RAMSDIS PC averaged into a single product, which can be functiona lity prior to specia lized training at CIRA. use d to indicate areas of heavy precipitation . In mid-August 1996, Dr Javier Soley (Costa Rica) Several application s have been developed to and Mr Selvin Burton (Barbados) visited CIRA determine wind velo city, storm motion and fea­ for training related to RAMSDIS PC and GOES-8 . ture arrival time at a specific location . Analysis During that week , initial research topics were of a time-series of imagery with the storm motion agreed upon . After the tra ining, they returned to removed provides the ability to isolate and study their respective RMTCs and shared their newly flow pattern s re lative to storm development and acquired knowledge with co lleagues about RAM S­ decay. Another useful application is the abi lity DIS and its menu-driven appl ications through to overlay surface and upper-air plots and anal­ demonstrations and hands-on training . An lnter­ ysed fie lds. net-compatible RAMSDIS PC was shipped to The hardware and software capabilities dis­ Costa Rica in the late autumn and , through per­ cussed above make the RAMSDIS PC a powerful, sistent work by the RMTC staff, Internet access easy-to-use, low-cost workstation for the analysis problems were solved and the system was run­ of digital satellite imagery. RAMSDIS provides the ning and ingesting data by 13 December 1996. ability for remote sites to share software and data Since that time , near-real-time GOES-8 digital on a common platform, which is essential to the imagery has been provided to the Costa Ri ca success of joint research and tra ining efforts. RMTC via Internet from the NESDIS GOES-8 serve r. Du ring night-time hours, when Intern et Activities during the demonstration year­ traffic is light, data flow has been smooth; in getting up and running the daytime, however, when the traffic is heavy, The first year ha s been a busy one . Since the data flow has at times been interrupted . Current summer of 1996, CIRA, CIMSS, and the Costa Internet service to the Barbados RMTC is not Rica and Barbados RMTCs have been partici­ capable of supporting RAMS DI S PC data flow pating in a virtual laboratory foc using on a famil­ and until that situation is corrected, CIRA wi ll iarization, research and training programme in select datasets for case-stu dy work. the use of digital GOES satellite imagery. After Since the science focal points from each receiving funding from the NWS lnteragency RMTC had visited CIRA duri ng the autumn of Activities Office, CIRA purchased and config­ 1996, it was both appropriate and necessary ured two RAM SDI S PC units for each RMTC, that CIRA scienti sts who would act as th e foca l with CIMSS providing MciDAS software for each point fo r each RMTC should undertake a rec ip­ unit. For each RMTC, one RAM SDIS unit was set rocal visit in early 1997. Thus, Bernadette Con­ up for research, whi le the other was configured nell visited Costa Rica during the last week of for real-time data ingest over Internet. In July January 1997 and Carol Va ughn visited Barba-

232 dos during early March 1997. Those visits had imagery is displayed with normal white (cool) to similar purposes, i.e. to: (a) become familiar with dark (warm) grey shading, while the 6. 7 ~-tm the RMTC operation and its staff; (b) provide image uses white to dark grey tones to indicate further training and troubleshooting in the use cooler moist regions and orange and red colours of the research RAMSDIS unit, as well as the for warmer dry regions. For both the 6. 7 and ingest RAMSDIS at Costa Rica; and (c) continue 10.7~-tm images, the colour bar and a temper­ work on case-studies and refine areas of joint ature scale are displayed at the bottom of the research. images. To aid in the analysis of the 10.7 1Jm imagery, the RAMSDIS PC menu allows the Real-time imagery colour bar to be shifted easily to highlight an The Costa Rica RMTC is located at the main operator-selected temperature range. This capa­ campus of the University of Costa Rica , with bility makes it much easier to monitor phenom­ staff from the School of Physics, Department of ena such as the diurnal heating and cooling cycle Atmospheric Science. This provides the oppor­ of land . Visible images that match the scale of tunity for University scientists and students not the 6.7 and 10.7 1Jm imagery are available dur­ directly associated with the RMTC to have access ing daylight hours, while matching 3.9 ~-tm to digital GOES imagery for both educational images are available 24 hours a day. From the purposes and the development of joint projects visible data a close-up image, Figure 1(a), is with RMTC staff. The Costa Rica system is set produced on the RAMSDIS PC for display and up to receive half-hourly digital (8 bit) GOES-8 analysis . That imagery is useful for following the data from four of the imager's channels, as evolution of clouds associated with mesoscale shown in the table on page 232.The table also phenomena such as mountain-induced convec­ shows other image products that are produced tion and land and sea-breezes. Once the 10.7 on the RAMSDIS PC from the Internet data stream. and 3. 9 ~m data are received by the RAMSDIS Each movie loop can be accessed quickly from PC, derived image products (fog, Figure 1(b) the function keys on the computer keyboard and reflectivity product (Figures 1(c) and l(d)) and toggle keys allow for the comparison of are produced for display on the system. Those products and imagery from different channels. products are useful for discrimination between Surface, international ship and buoy data are ice and water cloud, detection of fires, and moni­ ingested every hour and plotted automatically toring of volcanic ash cloud. An explanation of on selected loops. The surface data consist of those products is provided in a CAL module, hourly SAO observations from the USA and por­ which resides on the RAMSDIS PC and is avail­ tions of the Caribbean islands and Mexico. Radio­ able over Internet from the RAMM homepage sonde data over North America at mandatory (RAMM, 1997). levels are ingested twice a day, and may be The Barbados RMTC, the Caribbean Meteoro­ accessed for display on imagery through the logical Institute (CMI), does not have an Inter­ menu system. net service capable of meeting the demands of The 16 km resolution 6. 7 ~m imagery is RAMSDIS data flow. Special focus, therefore, used to show broad scale, hemispheric upper­ has been placed on the utilization of retrospec­ level flow patterns and mesoscale aspects of tive datasets for familiarization, as well as for larger-scale flow features that may influence research and training case development. The weather within the RMTC's area of interest. The CMI is affiliated with the University of the West imagery can be expanded to a display resolu­ lndies, whose campus is less than 2 km away. tion of 2 x 4 km in a different frame allocation The research RAMSDIS is located at the RMTC, area, allowing those data to be easily compared and the datasets on it are shared with colleagues with the other 2 x 4 km resolution images. The at CMI and the University participating in its 6. 7 ~m image is particularly useful when used meteorology programme . with the 10.7 ~m image for helping discrimi­ nate between thick and thin Cirrus cloud. For Use of retrospective data at the RMTCs that reason, the 6.7 ~-tm and 10.7 IJm imagery Case-studies have been chosen as the major is displayed using the same colour enhancement venue for research activity and training material for cold scene temperatures. Away from the cold development. A research RAMSDIS PC was placed temperature range, the 10.7 and 6. 7 1Jm colour at each RMTC to minimize conflicts between real­ enhancements are different: the 10.7~-tm time data flow and research activity. Case-stud- 233 Fi gure I (c)- Example of daytime 3.9 11111 pseudo-refl ec­ Figure I (d)- Example of fires during daytime in 3.9 tivity product: this product is useful for dis­ 11111 refl ecti vit y product. The fires appear tingui shing ice and water cloud during day­ as numerous bri ght spots in Panam a. time and for detecting tires (see close-up in Figure I (d) and volcani c ash. In tropi cal areas, however, thi s capability is depende nt on th e scattering angle. ies allow for in-depth exploration of the capabi li­ appropriate RMTC for study on their research ties of digital satellite imagery, encourage inter­ RAMSDIS system . A number of interesting cases action within the virtual laboratory environment, have been shared with the RMTCs, including and lead to the development of training materi­ one-minute interval imagery of hurricanes, vari­ als that can be used at the RMTC . To encourage ous cycles of convective development over land interaction within the virtual laboratory, CIRA and water, strong wind events, tropical storms established an electronic "mailing group" for and heavy precipitation. Both RMTCs are study­ discussion purposes . To facilitate the case-study ing hurricane Cesar during different portions of activity and take advantage of the CIRA satellite its life. data-collection and archiva l capabi lity, CIRA sci­ Two research activities are under way at entists routinely capture cases of interesting the Costa Rica RMTC . One focuses on the devel­ meteorological activity over each RMTC's region opment of rainfa ll algorithms for satellite imagery of responsibility. Unlike the real-time data flow, from Cesar. Those estimates will be compared those datasets contain full resolution data for with ground-based measurements. Work has also the visible, 3.9, 6.7 and 10.7 ~m imagery and started on the development of GOES-8 satellite­ cover an area larger than the nominal 480 x 640 based cloud climatologies with data ingested image size . Those special data are transferred on the RAMSDIS system. An example from the to either CDS or digital tape s and sent to the mesoscale cloud climatologies is shown in Fig- 234 ures 2(a) and 2(b). Figure 2a shows the mini­ in combination with an upper trough, produced mum and maximum brightness count derived heavy rainfall and severe flooding in St Lucia; from visible imagery at 1915 GMT for the last 200 mm of rain fell on the island during one two weeks in November and the first two weeks six-hour period. Series of three-hour averages in December 1996. Note that during both peri­ of 10.7 ~m images, such as those from from ods, there are cloudy areas over the mountains that study, may be of use in defining locations in the minimum images, while, in the maximum of ma ximum rainfall. imagery for November, clouds appear over the entire image while the December 1996 imagery Other activities fostered by the virtual has cloud-free areas. Figure 2b, a 4-panel of laboratory venture average imagery for 1315,1515,1715 and lt is satisfying to see that the goals set up at 1915 GMT for the last two weeks in November the beginning of thi s effort are being met. Other 1996, shows a portion of the diurnal cycle with benefits of the virtual laboratory effort, however, the development of clouds in mountainous areas, make this doubly exciting. In Barbados, Selvin particularly over Costa Rica . Climatologies of Burton is using some of the data for demon­ this type have great potential for use in training stration in a satellite meteorology course and helping understand topographic influences offered at the University (e.g . satellite winds, on cloud development. They also have a broad relative motion, 3.9 ~m data interpretation and variety of potential applications that range from its use). Students have shown a keen intere st in agricultural activity to solar power. the capabilities afforded by digital satellite imagery Exciting research is also under way in Bar­ and are excited about the prospects of using bados. The genesis of hurricanes Cesar and RAMSDIS and information available through the Dolly, which both impacted Barbados , are being virtual laboratory to help improve their knowl­ studied. Similar to Costa Ri ca, Barbados is edge and use of satellite imagery. Selvin ha s studying heavy rainfall events; in particular, an been joined by his twin brother, Horace, in October 1996 late season tropical wave which, investigations at the RMTC using the digital

Fi gure 2(a)- Minimum (left) and maximum (right) brightness at 1915 GMT for two-week periods in November (top) and December (bollom ) 1996 235 Figure 2b - Average images at 13 15, 1515, 1715 and 1915 GMT for last two weeks in November 1996

GOES case-study data. Other members of staff Conclusions and future activity at the CMI, though not involved in the research, The RAMSDIS program may be looked upon as have shown an interest in the RAMSDIS system. one of the first ventures into the world of virtual The results of the research being undertaken laboratories . The experien ce has been valuable jointly by the CMI and CIRA staff, particularly the in bringing to fruition a demonstration project heavy rainfall event in St Lu cia , are expected to that is showing how an RMTC can develop into be published. In Costa Rica , the ingest RAMS­ a specialized satellite applications training cen­ DIS is being used daily fo r weather briefings tre by participating in a virtual laboratory envi­ attended and presented by both students and ronment. Familiarization and specific applied staff. Dr Vilm a Castro Le6n is using RAMSDIS research tasks are being performed at each and information available through the virtual lab­ RMTC using digital satellite imagery. Based on oratory to provide students with exa mples that the activities at each RMTC , training cases are relate to information presented to them in being developed as a joint effort with CIRA for classes on dynamic and synoptic meteorology, use at the RMTC . Re sults have far exce eded cloud physics, and meteorological observa­ expectations. tions. Dr Waiter Fernandez (University of Costa Near-real-time GOES-8 digital imagery will Rica) and Rosario Alfaro (National Meteorologi­ continue to be provided to the RMTCs via Inter­ cal institute) are looking into satellite-derived net using the NESDIS GOES-8 server. A satellite rainfall estimates during hurricane Cesar and dish for Internet connections is being installed use of this derived rainfall algorithm for opera­ at the University of Costa Rica. This will provide tional purposes. Staff members are exc ited a smoother daytime data flow. Efforts are forg­ about developing cloud climatologies and their ing ahead at the CMI for the provision of an potential in identifying repetitive meteorological Internet connection which is capable of meeting patterns . The se last two re search efforts will the demands of the RAMSDIS data flow. CIRA result in collaborative publication s between scientists will continue to collaborate with the CIRA and the University. staff at each RMTC in the development of case-

236 studies that highlight the use of GOES-8 imagery with the RMTCs in the areas mentioned in the body of in that RMTC's area of interest. CIMSS scientists this article. In Costa Rica, Dr Vilma Cas tro Le6n, Coordinator of the Department of Atmospheric will begin to interact with the RMTCs on the use Physics, and Dr Javier Soley A/faro, Director, Centre of GOES sounder data and products. Interaction for Geophysical Research, have been instrumental in will continue on the application of satellite rain­ assuring the success of the virtual laboratory. Their fall algorithms. Archival and analysis of climatol­ efforts were made possible by the strong support of Mr Hugo Hidalgo Ramirez, Director, National Meteo­ ogy imagery will continue in Costa Rica and will rological Institute, the past and present rectors of the expand to cover Barbados. Besides the focus on University of Costa Rica, Dr Luis Garita Bonilla and Dr the "larger" research projects, effort will be Gabriel Macaya Trejos , respectively, as well as Dr directed towards producing "mini" examples of Yamileth Gonzalez Garcia, Director, Vice-presidency for Re search, and Dr Guy de Teramond Peralta, the use of satellite imagery, such as locating Director, CRNet, who is the administrator of Internet fires and land and sea breezes, cloud streets for Costa Rica. In Barbados, Mr Selvin Burton, meteo­ developing downwind of islands and windy-versus­ rologist at CM/, has been instrumental in assuring the calm conditions highlighted by sun glint. These success of the virtual laboratory. His twin brother, Horace, Chief Meteorologist at CM/, is now playing a and other projects will provide the RMTCs with key role in research and case-study development. useful training materials applicable to local The effort in Barbados was made possible through conditions . the strong support of Or Co/in Depradine, Principal, CM/, and the excellent support of CM/ staff. 0

Acknowledgments References This venture into the virtual laboratory has been made possible through the hard work and efforts of a num­ MOLENAR, 0., K. SCHRAB, J. PURDOM and H. GOSDEN , ber of organizations and individuals . Portions of the 1996: RAMSDIS in digital satellite data training effort were funded by the NWS Office of lnteragency and analysis. Preprints, 12th Conference on Affairs and the NESDIS GIMPAP program. The sup­ interactive information processing system s for port and encouragement of Dr Donald Hin sman, meteorology, oceanography and hydrology. 28 WMO, is greatly appreciated. Debra Molenar of NES­ January-2 February, Atlanta, GA. Amer. Meteor. DIS and Kevin Schrab, previously at C/RA and now Sac, Boston, 160-163. with NWS, deserve the lion's share of credit for the PHILLIPS , R. S., and J. F. W. PURDOM, 1996: The use of development of the RAMSDIS PC. The NESDIS Satel­ computer based tutorials as a part of GOES-8 lite Services Division deserves credit for maintaining and GOES-9 training . lbid, 315-317. high-quality service in providing routine GOES-8 data flow to Costa Rica from the NESDIS server. RAMM, 1997: Bernadette Conne/1 and Carol Vaughn of CIRA have http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ ramm/ goes39/c dedicated much of their time and effort into working over.htm

THE ECONOMIC VALUE OF METEOROLOGY1

By Jean-Pierre BEvssoN2

Introduction in terms of finding sponsors for the forecasts There is no doubt that today's mass media, tele­ and selling advertising slots before and after vision in particular, have a keen interest in the them and, thus, for the television channels . The meteorological business. The festival in lssy-les­ people providing the raw material have been Moulineaux, which is specifically for television unable or unaware of how to negotiate some kind presenters, is living proof. Television weather of financial share in what is generated by these presentations regularly attract a large audience­ apparently highly sought after programmes. a positive sign for the presenters and, of course, This example clearly shows that the devel­ opment of meteorological products may gener­ 1 A lecture given on 21 February 1997 at the Seventh ate economic activity whose value well exceeds International Festival of Meteorology, lssy-le s­ that of the products but which is not necessarily Moulineaux, France (21-25 February 1997) apparent in the market economy and is therefore 2 Director-General, Meteo-France not included in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP}. 237 While on the subject of the media, a British • In Europe , as customers, we are aware of study measured what consumers thought the the advantages of giving the private sector meteorological information that they received via a monopoly over the creation of value-added radio, newspapers and television was worth. Lis­ products, and the fact that there is a price, teners, readers and viewers do not seem to have a fair price, no doubt, for these products. to pay for the information in so far as there is no We do not feel, however, that there is any obvious or direct charge made for the service proof that their activities, as compared they receive. They were asked how much it would with our own, are any more competitive; seem reasonable to pay in view of how much • The main rea son is the question of the future weather forecasts helped them in their work, per­ of the meteorological system. Confronted sonal life, free time, etc . The study set the value with budgetary cuts, some Meteorological of these services at £540 million per year, which Services have used their activity reports to is almost FF 5 billion . Of course, that does not alert the authorities and impress upon them mean that consumers would be willing to pay that the danger of undermining the relevance of price, but it does show that they find the informa­ the observation network. These reports, tion useful on a number of levels, not least that of which are cautious by nature, suggest that helping them organize their free time! the danger is already looming. There is a The findings seem to indicate a change in clear sense that no one would benefit from attitudes, but not as far as we would like; our this kind of development. Obviously, there work is too costly and development needs are is no way that consumers can, in all proba­ too great for us to take the risk of depending bility, be made to shoulder the burden of solely on public finance , particularly at a time the meteorological system on their own. when it is becoming increasingly hard to come by. The consumer can, however, lighten the That argument raises doubts in our mind burden on the taxpayer by taking his place regarding the position of our American colleagues, in certain areas. who would like us to believe that their organiza­ tional model is the best on the grounds that: If what I see as this obvious opportunity for cooperation is ignored, the quality of the meteoro­ • Their Meteorological Service is not such a logical system as a whole will inevitably be weak­ financial burden on the State budget because, ened , maybe even eroded. by confining itself to providing raw data free If we are to measure the economic value of charge , it can economize in the area of of meteorology, we must begin by assessing development and marketing; the value put upon it-its cost. • lt generates more income for the economy because , by allowing the private sector, The complexity of producing meteorologi­ which obtains raw data free of charge, a cal data influences the cost of this form of monopoly on the creation of value-added technology products, it promotes the development of The global observing network comprises many products that the consumer needs. surface-based, marine and upper-air stations, to which one must above all add meteorological Unfortunately, on close examination , the satellites. lt is an extremely dense network, albeit model is defective; it comprises negative aspects a little less so in the USA and Canada than in for the Meteorological Service and potential Europe, and includes areas where coverage is dangers for the economy in general, for at least limited such as the oceans and, in particular, three reasons: Africa . • lt makes no particular difference to one Meteorological Service whether it is cheaper The density of the observing network than another because it is always too expen­ across the world sive for the State budget. Even if providing The concept of an international meteorological only basic operations, the Services that observation network owes its origins, indirectly, adopt this model are no less susceptible to to a naval catastrophe, and its design to a great drastic budgetary cuts which, unfortunately, French scientist. they cannot recuperate with their own In November 1854, a terrible storm destroyed resources-because they have none; the French fleet that was laying siege to

238 Sebastopol in Crimea. Thirty-eight ships and three Computer processing warships were sunk . The French astronomer, All observations are processed by computer. Urbain le Verrier, who had been asked by Every day, Meteo-France's computers in Toulouse Napoleon Ill to investigate the causes of the dis­ process 60 000 weather reports, including aster, showed that a suitable observation net­ 40 000 from abroad and 20 000 from French work could have prevented the vessels from observation stations. going down. lt was thus demonstrated that the Thi s kind of processing demands the most atmosphere is a fluid in constant flux, whose powerful computers: it takes approximately 15 changes at a given point can only be forecast if minutes to calculate the data needed for a 24- observations are made prior to the changes in hour forecast, which amounts to about 7 000 different places, and the longer the forecast billion basic operations. Meteo-France has a period is, the farther away the observations supercomputer, the Cray C98, which can pro­ need to be made . cess 8 billion operations per second. Thi s is the basic function of the global This information is fed into our numerical meteorological observing system and a primary weather prediction models which help our fore­ reason for the relatively high cost of meteorology. casters at the central and regional levels and at The web of the transmission network departmental level to make forecasts on an increasingly smaller scale and covering longer lt is also no mean feat transmitting all the mea­ periods. surements and observations across the world in near-real time. A large budget is essential to be able to Around the world finance these resources This is why meteorologists, under the auspices Meteo-France's budget for 1997 is FF 1.8 billion. of WMO , set up the Global Telecommunication A State subsidy accounts for 65 per cent of its System. lt is an amazing mesh of broadcasting income and it funds 35 per cent itself (two-thirds machinery transmitting, at least every six hours­ coming from aviation). Modern, reliable and rel­ and usually every three hours-365 days a year, evant meteorology requires enormous resources by radio and telephone lines, cab le and satel­ in terms of measurements, means of tran smis­ lites, a mass of important meteorological infor­ sion, calculating capacity and of course, human mation (e.g. pres sure, temperature, humidity, expertise. wind speed ) taken from 10 000 ground-based I believe this has two consequences. station s, 1 500 radiosounding stations, 5 000 The first is the fact that the enormity of the ships and so forth, which provides the basis of infrastructure I have just mentioned-and to · weather foreca sting . which research, climatology and training must be added-justify substantial financial support In Europe from the State. The main European network is made up of six Nevertheless, this task-as important as it regional transmission centres (Bracknell, Paris , may be-should not obstruct or exclude the Offenbach, Prague, Moscow and Sofia), which development of commercial revenue, if certain serve 50 European centres . Each of them con­ conditions are respected . stitutes a national network, some larger than others. The trend towards diversification of Meteo­ France's financing and commercial revenue In France After several years of great stability at a modest France has an extremely dense network, since level, Meteo-France's commercial revenue ha s each of Meteo-France's departmental centres is seen a marked increase since the beginning of linked to Toulouse by satellite (Meteo-France the 1990s, reaching FF210 million in 1996. was the first meteorological centre in the world Thi s is unquestionable proof of the eco­ to have its own satellite transmission network, nomic value of meteorology. the RETIM network), while each regional centre, lt is true, however, that the work of meteo­ Toulouse and Paris, is connected by high-capac­ rologists may have an economic value which ity cable links . does not show up in economic output, that is to High-speed links do not come cheap. say, it is not taken into account in the GDP and

239 which, nonetheless, is extremely useful to the Of course, there are other examples, nation, particularly in all aspects of safety, espe­ including the well-known one of cyclones. The cially public safety, the importance of which has US Weather Service pointed out in "A Vision for increased considerably in today's society. 2005", its plan of strategy, that a significant improvement in short-term forecasts and corre­ Safety-useful for society and the economy sponding warnings should benefit the nation by The benefits of reliable weather forecasts in as much as USS 7 billion, at least. the field of safety are often overlooked or, In every regard, the scale in Europe is more precisely, in the same way as insurance more modest. A fairly comprehensive study is always considered too expensive before an was carried out several years ago in the United accident, the benefits can only be assessed Kingdom. lt shows that the economic benefits with hindsight. from relevant meteorological warnings amount There are cases in which this can be to £150 million a year. This figure includes all clearly seen. expenditure that has been avoided and all the On 15 and 16 October 1987, the south of savings made by individuals and enterprises England was devastated by the worst storm which, thanks to meteorological warnings, can ever to hit the area. At least 16 people were take precautions to protect their property or killed when trees fell, buildings collapsed and limit the damage caused by floods, storms boats sank. Fifteen million trees were and, more generally, harsh weather. The figure uprooted, including six of the famous seven also takes account of the "benefits" to the oaks of Sevenoaks in Kent, that were hundreds security and safety services themselves which, of years' old, and 400 000 people were left when duly alerted, can make effective prepara­ without electricity. tions and maximize how they divide their The French and Netherlands Meteorologi­ resources . The study does not, however, take cal Services had warned of an exceptionally account of the potential benefits to be made severe storm 36 hours in advance, but the by heeding warnings of chemical or nuclear United Kingdom Service had predicted that the pollution because neither the situation nor the storm would break in the North Sea. scale of such events are ever the same, which The consequences of this error in predic­ makes it impossible to put a figure on what tion were remarkable. Damage amounted to at they cost on average every year. In particular, least FF3 billion at rates at that time and on the figures do not take account of permanent eco­ London Stock Market, insurance companies nomic benefits, at times when there is no lost some 7 per cent off the price of their emergency, for many economic sectors which shares. The adverse effects were compounded we will mention briefly. by the fact that many actors on the economic With regard to security and safety, let us scene, such as electricity companies and simply note that it is possible to assess the shipowners in particular, said that they would economic benefit to the nation, even if it is not have been able to cope with the situation with­ paid directly by users, and probably stands at out any serious damage if the warning had about FF1 billion per year. been sounded in good time, as had been the As a first estimate, if we include part of case in France. The second paradoxical, yet what the public thinks the Meteorological Service positive, consequence was that the United is worth-the FF5 billion mentioned earlier-the Kingdom Meteorological Service was given a social benefit, which is not paid for directly by great deal of help. A national emergency plan the public, would amount to several times­ was approved, enabling it to improve its net­ between two and three times-the State subsidy. work of observation stations considerably, replace its computer with one that was 10 The advantages for the economic sector times more powerful, etc. The French Electricity Company, E/ectricite de This example shows that good weather France (EDF), is primarily concerned with eco­ forecasts and early warnings can help save nomic matters, since the cost of producing considerable amounts of money and that, if one kilowatt varies according to whether it is reliable weather forecasts are to be produced, produced by nuclear, hydraulic or thermal major investment in basic infrastructures is means. lt is also concerned with programming, necessary. because the time constants of the various

240 means of production differ. lt is thus easier to These events show what I was talking about stop and restart an oil-fired power station than before with regard to security, namely that it is a nuclear power station. In this regard, weather too late after disasters have happened to realize is important. If the temperature drops just one that we could have limited our losses. We need degree in the middle of winter, a nuclear power to establish efficient cooperation, take preven­ station has to produce over one extra unit. tive action, create effective tools and organize A 1989 study estimated that the annual effective assistance before disasters strike. benefit for EDF of an increase in the quality of We are also quite aware of the importance meteorological forecasts for one day (short of meteorology for agriculture and fishing. term) amounted toFF 4 million and FF 100 mil­ lion in terms of the consecutive benefit derived Building and public works from a perfect weather forecast (of between Meteorological information is extremely impor­ one hour to one year ahead). tant for building projects. With regard to the work on the Normandy bridge or the French The networks football stadium , with which we have been For persons managing water purification, involved recently, we did not just have to fore­ refinement and conveyance networks, etc., the cast when there would be frost or heavy rain , smooth operation of the network can be radi­ we also had to provide smaller-scale assistance cally altered by storms . Tools which use cer­ in terms of forecasting wind thresholds at vari­ tain meteorological fields that have been pro­ ous levels when certain parts of the construc­ duced using numerical weather prediction tion were being laid. models, radar observations, lightning impact I have already mentioned the advantages measurements, and so on, are rapidly develop­ of meteorology for the media . ing. Amelie, which is a tool being developed at Meteo-France for the water company, Lyon­ The environment and pollution naise des Eaux, helps, inter alia, to ensure Meteo-France uses its resources and expertise more effective monitoring of hydrocarbon dis­ in the area of air quality as well as in combating charge at Orly Airport and, therefore, the qual­ industrial and urban pollution. ity of water at the pumping station downstream at the confluence of the Orge and the Seine Conclusion Rivers . In summary, although I have not been able to Meteo-France is investing heavily in this mention all the economic sectors that benefit regard , because we need to develop every from meteorology, it should be remembered aspect of hydrology. In particular, we are devel­ that meteorology yields five to 10 times its oping HYDRAM software which, using radar allotted budget. This conclusion is enough for data, will be able to calculate water waves in me not to have to add anything else, except to order to improve significantly the way in which a mention that these figures are the result of rise in water levels can be forecast. work carried out for the Conference on Eco­ nomic Benefits of Meteorological and Hydrologi­ Transport cal Services, hosted by WMO in Geneva , 19-23 People are clearly more aware of the advantages September 1994. o for transport. In France this winter, it was obvi­ 0 A brief, illustrated account of the Seventh ous just how interested people responsible for International Weather Festival can be motorway management or railway networks found on page 281 (Ed .). were in being able to call on effective meteoro­ logical assistance . 0 A summary report on the Conference on Meteo-France successfully forecast periods Economic Benefits of Meteorological and of icy rain this winter, which , notably, brought Hydrological Services may be found in the high-speed train, the TGV, to a standstill. WMO Bulletin 44 (2) (Ed .)

<£><£'<£/

241 WEATHER PRESENTATION ON CROATIAN TELEVISION

By Zeljana NENADIC 1, lvan CACIC2 and Milan SIJERKOVIC 2

Introduction Respondents were selected according to The presentation and dissemination of weather their age, profession, sex and place of residence. information, forecasts and warnings form a crit­ In making our selection we tried to achieve an ical link in the chain of quality public weather equal distribution of respondents in the selected services provided. Various dissemination options categories. The research comprised 11 Croat­ exist, depending on the communication infra­ ian towns , of which six are in the continental structure available. Owing to its graphics capa­ part and five are on the Adriatic coast. For each bility, television is widely used in many coun­ location we took into consideration a young tries to convey meteorological forecasts and {18-35 years), middle (30-55 years) and older information to the general public. (55-75 years) age group. With regard to their In Croatia, meteorological information forms profession (students, white collar workers, highly an important part of the daily programme of educated professionals, farmers, fishermen , the national broadcasting company. Prompted housewives), we selected the respondents of a by changes introduced recently in graphical certain age group we thought would be most presentation, set and style of presentation and motivated to fill out the questionnaire. Special the introduction of non-meteorologists as pre­ attention was paid to middle and older age senters of the weather reports broadcast daily group farmers and fishermen, as we assumed after the main news programme, we undertook it was they who would find weather forecasts a survey in order to assess the level of viewers' particularly significant. satisfaction with the presentation. Another pur­ The questionnaire consisted of 15 alterna­ pose of the survey was to establish our own tive and multiple choice questions and one open­ standards for the creation and presentation of type question designed to provide the respon­ meteorological information on national televi­ dents with the opportunity to volunteer any sion, taking into consideration the needs of the additional opinion. public and WMO guidelines [1, 2 and 3]. We aimed to investigate viewers' opinions This project is a realization of one of WMO's on the content of the "Weather" programme basic principles-a healthy and productive part­ (quality, conciseness and simplicity of meteoro­ nership between a national Meteorological Ser­ logical information) and on the "media accept­ vice and national television . ability" of new presenters, as well as on their communication skills (verbal and non-verbal). Method The survey was carried out in October-Novem­ A viewer's view ber 1995, in the form of an opinion poll which comprised a total of 15 7, mostly regular, view­ "The 'Weather' programme should be much ers of the "Weather" programme in Croatia [4]. better, considering the number of people With regard to the number of respondents and watching it and the significance of the infor­ the fact that this was the first survey of a Croa­ mation it presents." (Housewife, 30, Split) tian television weather product presentation , it should be considered as orientation research. Results Although in passing general judgement on the 1 Service for Language and Speech , Croatian Radio "Weather" programme more than half (59 per and Tele vision cent) of the viewers rated it as satisfactory, it 2 Synoptic Department, Croatian Meteorological and is significant that almost one-third of respon­ Hyd rological Service dents (29 per cent) considered it was bad.

242 Questions regarding more detailed fea­ No relevance tures of the programme revealed that viewers 13 % were demanding when it came to details. For Non­ Meteorologist meteorologist 80 % example, almost half the respondents consid­ 7 % ered graphical illustrations either too compli­ cated or inadequate, hardly legible or illegible. Most respondents (87 per cent} thought that graphical illustrations should form part of the previous day's weather report, whereas almost all of them (98 per cent} would like to see graphi­ Figure I - Vi ewers' opinion as to who should provide the cal representation of the following day's forecast. description and ex pl anati on of the weather In addition, more then half (55 per cent} thought that one graphical illustration sufficed to describe 1 (bad} to 5 (excellent} for their speech skills. the previous day's weather, which indicates the Besides accurate weather information, the viewers' need to be informed only of the most viewers expected the weather presenters to be important weather events. On the other hand, 69 skillful at communicating their message both per cent wanted more than one graphical illustra­ verbally and non-verbally. The majority of tion for the forecast, indicating that the following respondents (56 per cent} did not approve of day's forecast was more important to them than inappropriate gestures such as "dancing" in the description of the previous day's events . front of the camera, clumsy and hesitant ges­ Most viewers (93 per cent} would like to tures, exaggerated gesticulation, lack of confi­ receive a forecast for the following 24 hours, dence and unrelaxed or unconvincing whereas 60 per cent would like the forecast behaviour. range to be extended to 72 hours. Over half of Figure 2 shows the relationship between the respondents (57 per cent} expected the these characteristics (shown in per cent}, as weather forecast to cover other regions besides well as their importance. Croatia, e.g . most parts of Europe (34 per cent}; neighbouring countries (23 per cent}. As many No relevance as 85 per cent of respondents had no particular 13 % interest in a separate weather forecast for the Non­ Meteorologist capital city, Zagreb, perhaps because they meteorologist 80 % 7% received those bulletins through other media such as local radio or newspapers. A description of the content of weather charts would be welcomed by 90 per cent of respondents . This suggests an interest on the part of the public to understand weather events Figure 2- Viewers' ranking of the most important dis­ and their causes and consequences. This inter­ tincti ve traits a presenter should have (marked est may be attributed to a 30-year long process two to four out of the seven answers) of educating the public and enhancing their understanding of meteorological phenomena Viewers have certainly recognized some through various media, especially television. indisputable rules of television presentation of Unfortunately, such descriptions are beyond a meteorological product. This relates particu­ the scope of the current "Weather" programme, larly to a good knowledge of meteorology and and this is one of its serious shortcomings. a good speaking manner, but we would also lt should be noted that as many as 80 per like to emphasize the place given to self-confi­ cent of respondents thought that the description dence and persuasiveness. lt is striking that and explanation of weather events should be the presenters' attractive appearance scored made by a meteorologist (Figure 1}, and this is very low (5 per cent} in this ranking. Also, it is the main reason why the majority of our respon­ significant that our audiences accord little dents had expressed dissatisfaction with the cur­ importance to the significance of wit in weather rent presenters' style. presentations (only 7 per cent}. Nevertheless, According to the survey, the current it is generally regarded as acceptable to inject weather presenters scored 2. 7 on a scale of a dose of light humour into the meteorological

243 information so that it "goes down better" with 1 • Legible , recognizable and attractive (aes­ the public. thetic) graphical illustrations of the most Conclusions reached from the survey reflect important features of weather in the past the opinions and needs of our respondents . We and in the future, with emphasis on weather would like to make the following recommenda­ forecasts. tions for preparation and presentation of weather Presenters should: forecasts on Croatian television. Some of these recommendations could be applied to weather 1 • Be professionally proven with an excellent presentation programmes in other countries . knowledge of meteorology (preferably Weather reports should contain: meteorologists); well spoken; • A description of the current weather which • Be able to coordinate graphical illustrations should not be too extensive in comparison with verbal content in a logical and appro­ with the more important prognostic priate time sequence; information; • Remain standing to present the informa­ • Forecasts for Croatia and neighbouring tion, emphasizing the most important parts countries, if not for a larger part of Europe; of the report by non-verbal communication; • "Short-range forecasts " for the following • Not distract the attention of the audience 24 hours and an outlook for the 48 or 72 by their appearance, clothes, behaviour or hours ahead; speech . o • Useful and interesting meteorological References information; attention shou ld be paid to avoiding irrelevant details. [1] WMO, 1987: Meteorology and the Media, WMO­ No . 688, Geneva , 19-28. In presenting weather reports, the follow­ [2] WMO, 1996: Guide to Public Weather Services ing should be used : Practices, WMO-No . 834, Geneva. • Weather charts (current and prognostic); [3] McNAUGHT-WATSON, B., 1995: The presentation and documentation of weather information, • Satellite and radar imagery and other WMO Bulletin 44 (2), Geneva. illustrative original or animated meteoro­ [4] SuPEK, R. , 1981: Public Opinion Polls (in logical indicators; Croatian), Sveueili'na naklada Liber, Zagreb.

IMPACT OF CLIMATE1

By C. C. WALLEN2

Climate definition the climate is different and cooler if the inclina­ The above title requires a clarification and defi­ tion of the Sun's radiation is sma ll. Therefore, nition of both the words "impact" and "climate" . the climate is warmer close to the Equator and Let me start by discussing the definition of the colder close to the Pole. However, as we well word "climate". know nowadays, there is much more to differ­ Everybody knows that the word "climate" ences in climate than variations in the Sun's stems from the word klima in Greek which radiation. The first scientist who recognized means inclination and refers to the inclination some of these other factors, which are basic of the Sun's radiation . The Greeks knew that to climate, was Alexander van Humboldt of Germany, who, during his travels in South --- America in the early 19th century, came to 1 Lecture given at the European Conference on Applied understand that climate has large regional dif­ Climatology, Norrkoping, Sweden, 7-1 0 May 1996 ferences which are not only related to the 2 Chairman, SAC on Climate, UNEP Sun's radiation, but are caused by factors such

244 as temperature of and distance from the sea, phere in the sense that the Anglo-Saxon approach the altitude, the relation to the general circula­ requires . If we consider climate according to the tion of the atmosphere, etc. We must recall macro-, meso- and microscale, the observa­ that von Humboldt was a geographer or, tions taken at 2 m above the surface of the rather, an explorer with a geographer's view of Earth are re lated to the mesoscale and, hence, climate as a geographical characteristic of the are app li cable to regional differences in climate Earth rather than related to the atmosphere of but hardly to climate aspects of the atmos­ the Earth. Like Montesquieu in France in the phere, which are better observed by macro­ 18th century and Huntington in the USA in the scale observations in the free atmosphere. The 20th century, he considered climate as related microscale observations in the air layer clo se to to its impact on human beings rather than as a the ground are of special interest to agriculture characteristic of the atmosphere. Climate dur­ and, as we shall see, of great use in applica­ ing the 19th century, therefore, became a tion s and impact of cl imate. human science as its variation has a great If one thinks more deeply about what is impact on humanity, culture, socio-economics, required for understanding macroclimate (basi­ etc. In France, as in Germany and Russia, cli­ cally, the general circulation of the atmos­ matology became basically a human science phere), it is clear that the measurements taken belonging to geography, which, in France, is at 2 m above the land surface are not accept­ part of the faculty of human sciences. able for understanding the state of the atmos­ The Anglo-Saxon approach to climate is phere, as they are greatly influenced by the sur­ very different; climate became what was, in the face above which the observations are taken. early days, called "average weather", i.e. statis­ The temperature above a desert surface, for tics of the data gathered over a long period of in stance, is quite different from one above a time from stations erected 2 m above the green field because of the great differences in Earth's surface and may furnish thereby a the albedo of the surface and not differences in longer term idea of the weather, i.e . climate, in the atmosphere. In other words, the question different parts of the world. In the early days, arises whether many of the observations taken these "statistics" were employed mainly to ca l­ at 2 m can really be used in the observation culate simple averages of weather observa­ system now being established for climate cal led tions. As one has come to understand that the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). If there are many more factors involved with cli­ they are used for the macro aspects of climate, mate than with weather, climate "statistic s" a selection of them not influenced by surface have developed to include extreme values, fre­ differences should be made . In many respects, quencies, variability and other more refined they are more related to the land surface obser­ parameters. The need for studying climate, vation system (the Global Terre strial Observing according to the Anglo-Saxon approach, is not System (GTOS)) also being established. We can­ its impact on human beings but rather the long­ not resolve this problem here, but I wanted to term study of the behaviour of the atmosphere show how complicated the approach to clima­ and its weather. tology can be and that it is far from generally I am not going to evaluate the two agreed on in all its difficult details. approaches mentioned above, I will only empha­ size that, in discussing the impact of climate, Applications and impact we obviously have to deal basically with the geograph ical approach to defining "climate" . In Applications many ways, the modern study of climate is a Hi storically, it is well known that during the first combination of the two approaches and there­ years of existence of the Meteorological Ser­ fore deals with both the physical and human vices in the developed world, i.e. during the lat­ aspects. ter part of the last century and the early part of One question which arises in this context the present one, the establishment of the clima­ has never been openly considered. This is tology of the most important meteorological whether the observations taken around the parameters in any country was a main aim of globe at 2 m above the land surface and other­ the State meteorological institution . Here in wise above the oceans, really give a picture of Sweden, the second director of Meteoro/ogiska "climate" as the long-term state of the atmos- Centralanstalten, H. E. Hamberg, carried out the

245 first studies of the temperature and precipita­ by electronic computers, based on the latest tion elimate of Sweden based upon data from normals existing in the country. the latter part of the 19th century. In this way As far as the areas where climatic data are an early basis was formed for applications of applied, I think three have become more out­ climatological data in the sense that one cou ld standing than others, namely energy supply and answer simple questions about how tempera­ consumption , food supply, and water ture and precipitation in Sweden were dis­ resources. Of these three, it is likely that food tributed by presenting data which could be supply generally has dominated due to the fact applied for various purposes. In the first years, that most of the Meteorological Services in this was mainly to agriculture and forestry but, developed and developing countries were later on, to the growing industries, in particular established for the benefit of agriculture. These those related to water-resource development. services also belonged, in most cases, to the In subsequent years, the questions to answer Ministry of Agriculture. This fact is true for the from indu stry, agriculture, trade and legal prob­ who le period from the establishment of such lems, became more and more intricate and Services until about the year 1930, when the required further development of climatological main user of meteorological services be came statistics and the understanding of regional dif­ aviation and new techniques made it possible to ferences of climate . calc ulate more sophi sticated statistical parame­ All developed countries gradua lly devel­ ters which were useful for other industries. oped more or le ss sophisticated climatological The application of climate data to agricul­ divisions which, in most cases, were coupled ture changed dramatically in the 1950s, when with State Institutions. Until the 1950s and the requirements for water at the microclimate 1960s these divisions, in most cases basing level became fashionable as a result of develop­ their activities on hand driven operations, pro­ ments by Penman in the United Kingdom and vided more and more sophisticated but often Thornthwaite in the USA. This led to the need quite slowly produced, normally based climate for new microclimatic parameters to be ca lcu­ statistics to energy demand, food supply and lated for application to agriculture. water resource development. As the Hollerith Today, Sweden is a typical example of a methodology was developed in the 1950s and country where the Meteorological Service has 1960s, it came to be used in climatological adapted to the demand for services by society. statistics. In many Services, climate data were The Service is structured not accord in g to its transferred to punched cards and the machine production of forecasts and data but, rather, in era of climatology and its appl ication started. it line with the consumption of forecasts and data is interesting to note that the USA was a pio­ by various industries . This type of development neer in this area and Helmuth Land sberg, who is to be expected more and more in advanced became Director of Climatology in the USA in countries with the development of commercial­ the 1950s, was in strumental in developing the ization of Meteorological Services. machine era there. Gradually, it developed in all industrialized countries but, as early as the Impact 1970s, punched card technology was being In the la st few years it has become popular to replaced by electronic computers, which were talk about the impact of climate on the socio­ already being used by the Meteorological Ser­ economic structure of a region or a country. vices for numerical forecasting. Thi s approach was invented by the Administra­ Obviously, it then became much easier to tor of the US Weather Bureau, Robert White, ca lculate the more sophisticated parameters during the First World Climate Conference which we re required in applications of climatic organized by WMO in 1979. As president of data to various industries and this type of scien­ the Conference, Or White suggested that a new tific application developed rapidly. In the 1980s, approach to impact and applications of climate it led to the development of programmes for be launched which would concentrate more on easily handled computers which have been dis­ the integrated approach of applications in sec­ tributed to practically all developing countries tors of the economy so that we would better under the CLICOM project of WMO. At pre sent, understand a cl imate's direct impact on a coun­ countries all over the world can supply cus­ try's or a region's type of economic and social tomers with climatological statistics calculated structure. it is from this time that dealing with

246 the impact of climate by UNEP originates, as Prof. Kates also concluded that if economists WMO considered itself as an organization not and social scientists have the above problems, competent to deal with the impact of climate in the situation is not much better in the climate the sense proposed at the First World Climate system, where it is extremely difficult to recog­ Conference. nize slow, persuasive, cumulative changes. In As you may remember, the First World Cli­ view of this similarity within the two systems, mate Conference in 1979 created, within the i.e. socio-economics on the one hand and cli­ framework of the World Climate Programme, a mate on the other, it is not surprising that the sub-programme which is actually carried out by consequences of the two systems in trying to UNEP and is called the World Climate Impact understand climate impact in all its aspects are and Response Strategies Programme. For the extremely complicated. purpose of clarifying the objectives of this sub­ The above ideas, together with others pre­ programme and its development, I shall start sented at the Conference, led to the establish­ by quoting from Dr R. White's introductory lec­ ment of the World Climate Impact Studies Pro­ ture as follows: gramme (WCIP) which was, with the agreement What we do not understand clearly and what of the Eighth World Meteorological Congress and governments are concerned about, is the the UNEP Governing Council in 1979, given to question of the integrated impact of climate UNEP to implement with the following objectives : change and variability upon society ..... We wish to learn how the chain of interactions that may • To expedite the development of: ultimately result in malnutrition or unemploy­ ment or other critical situations is dependent - Our knowledge and awareness of the upon climate. Why are some social and eco­ effects of climate change and variability nomic structures more resilient to climate events than others7 Do these differences on natural systems and on human, social depend on factors we can do something about? and economic activities; ... The examination of these impacts is the major objective of thi s Conference. -Assessment methodology and interactive impact models capable of determining You may ask: Why should the climate commu­ the sensitivity of environmental societal nity extend its concerns so far beyond scientific and economic systems to climate variabil­ and technical matters into the realm of eco­ nomics and social structure? The answer is ity and change; clear: our task is to identify not just what it is that science should do but what it is that • To facilitate the application of this knowl­ governments should know. Unles s there is a edge and methodology in: better comprehension of the chain of events and the complex interactions that take place, - Interpreting scenarios of climate change governmental decisions to investigate the and variability in terms of specific economic, social and other effects of climate responses of components of natural and impacts may very well provide the wrong human systems such as crop yield, water remedies. supply, heating and cooling needs, etc .; Prof. R.W. Kates (USA) who, at the First World Climate Conference, was the most well­ - Determining the impact on the larger known scientist to represent socio-economics food, commercial, industrial and other and its relations with climate variability, pointed human systems of these component out three problems that scientists fail to under­ responses, taking into account the stand in dealing with impacts: interactive factors, where appropriate; • The absence of an accepted theory of - Determining the characteristics of natural social development-consequently, and human systems which make them there is no definition of socio-economic vulnerable or resilient to climate change structure; and variability. • The failure to understand the effect of Thi s programme was approved to start in perturbations on complex social systems ; three areas, namely energy, agriculture, and water resources . lt was also indicated that • Our limited knowledge of human percep­ there may be a need to evaluate individual fac­ tion and behaviour in the face of slow, tors and sectors in the context of an integrated persuasive but cumulative change. system. This seems to have been an unfortu-

247 nate suggestion , because the programme pie , their soc io-economic systems and on the came to put more emphasis on the impact of environment as a whole. This need should be climate on individual socio-economic sectors met through increasingly sophisticated rather than on the integrated system, thereby research on climate impact on integrated coming close to doing similar thing s as the socio-economic systems. Special studies programme on applications of climate data. shou ld concentrate on the future availability of The plan launched in 1980-1983 for the energy, food and water resources but should impact programme indeed proposed to carry also address elements such as health, tourism, out theoretical research on the application of a aquaculture and managed ecosystems. modelling approach to the impact of climate on So much for the future plans for WCIRP. In integrated natural and human systems. This fact, the results of the WCIRP, from its com­ fundamental approach to impact of climate did mencement in 1980 to its restructure in 1994, not materialize, because it was never clarified is quite impressive. lt has contributed to two in WMO whether this research should be under­ things in particular. In the first years its con­ taken by the World Climate Research Pro­ centration on methodology for climate impact gramme (WCRP) or WCIP. assessment resulted in a book by Prof. Kates In the recent approach by the WCIRP3, and co-authors (1984). In later years, the presented in the Climate Agenda, the need to WCIRP has concentrated on carrying the have activities focused on integrated systems methodology used in the developing world for rather than sectors has become evident in the application of climate knowledge and informa­ discussions on climate impact on human sys­ tion to developing countries, particularly tems. From the Cl imate Agenda we can sum­ through studies carried out in South-East Asia marize the future plans for WCIRP as follows: and in Brazil, which have resulted in publica­ The overall objective is to identify the pol­ tions in both areas . Similarly, the WCIRP has, at icy means by which nations could reduce the the request of the Intergovernmental Panel on vulnerability of their socio-economic systems Climate Change, carried out a large number of to climate, climate variability and to both natu­ studies of sources and sinks of greenhouse ral and human-activity induced climate change. gases in developing countries . The following four specific objectives of lt is my sincere hope that, with the new the future WCIRP are related to the above: approach to WCIRP being ta ken in the Climate Agenda, we shall be able to start again on the • Assess national environmental and socio­ subject of impact of climate at the beginning, economic impacts induced by climate by addressing some of the fundamental scie n­ variability and change; tific issues. We therefore have to tackle some • Identify response strateg ie s to reduce of the basic research problems about how a national and regional vulnerability to socio-economic system is influenced by cli­ cl imate impacts; mate and how it is altered by climate change. To explain where one should start, let me men­ • Develop and publicize optimized method­ tion a region of the world where no stable ologies for assessment of climate impact soc io-econom ic system has been established. on socio-economic structure and response I am thinking of north-eastern Brazil, where strategies to meet its vulnerability; economy and settlement are completely depen­ • Establish a coordinated network of dent upon sufficient rainfall, which occurs in national and regional climate impacts and this region only at irregular interval s and there­ response strategies . fore no stable economic system has ever been possible . By starting in such a region, let us To respond effectively to various aspects learn to understand what is cl imatically of climate variability and change requires reli­ required for the establishment of a stable ab le knowledge of the potential impact on peo- socio-economic system. When we know more about the processes involved, let us try by all 3 The name was changed in 1991 to the World means to adapt further the modelling approach Climate Impact and Response Strategy Programme (WCIRP). to the problem. 0

'£>\%><£>

248 METEOROLOGICAL OBSERVING SYSTEMS BEFORE 1870 IN ENGLAND, FRANCE, GERMANY, RUSSIA AND THE USA: A REVIEW AND COMPARISON

Introduction modern era in meteorology. But lest we forget Meteorology, like most other branches of natu­ how radically different weather studies were in ral knowledge, had no status as an observa­ the past, it is important to recall that a number tion al sc ience at the turn of the 17th century. of issues, including the influence of the Aristotelian thought (on meteorology as on weather on health, the influence of climate on almost everything else) was still dominant in culture, and the influence of the stars on the the academy. Over time, however, the continu­ weather, attracted the serious attention of ing revolution in the practice of experimental savants in the 17th and 18th centuries. natural philosophy, the increased status and Hippocratic medicine, an ancient holistic view visibility of "useful" knowledge, the rise of of health and disease emphasizing the balance (or scientific societie s, and the spread of commu­ lack thereof) between an organism and its environ­ nal observational practices provided scientific ment, experienced a modest revival in the 18th bases for weather studies. 1 century. This revival coincided with the beginning In the middle of the 17th century, sava nts of the regular collection of vital statistics in Great began to turn away from the traditional practice Britain. Cities such as London and Edinburgh of preparing new commentaries on Aristotle's tabulated bills of mortality, usually accompanied Meteorologica and focused instead on new by "natural and political" commentaries on the techniques for describing, measuring, and data. Government decrees required parishes to weighing the atmosphere2. The new scie ntific keep a daybook recording christenings, mar­ societies of Europe promoted the collection, riages, and burials.3ln the 1730s, John Arbuthnot compilation, and dissemination of meteorologi­ popularized the notion that the conditions in the cal observations from remote locations and atmosphere- especially seasonal changes and over widespread areas. These efforts were rapid changes of temperature-were related to superseded by specific observational projects the recurrence and spread of disease.4 Fifty years spon sored by government agencies and later, John Fothergill, London physician and meteorological societies. By the end of the natural historian, continued to search for links 19th century, most nations had established between sickness, mortality and the environment: official weather services and international coop­ I know of nothing that would more effectually eration in meteorology was well under way. conduce to state the different degrees of healthi­ This article examines the evolution of ness or unhealthiness in different parts of this nation so clearly, as a proper bill of mortality ... meteorological observing systems and national The records of the seasons in respect to heat and weather services before 1870 in England, cold, dryness and moisture, made by ingenious France, Germany, Ru ssia, and the USA and men in different parts of the kingdom , compared demonstrates how the expanding observational with such annual bills, would afford many useful reflections to the faculty, [and] much benefit the horizons of meteorology were linked to in stitu­ community in general. s tional developments in these nations. Another significant issue, stimulated by Euro­ Past theoretical issues pean expa nsion and worldwide colonization, was Most of this article examines some of the the notion that climate influenced culture and observational projects that preceded the society. Early statements to thi s effect, found for

Science and Te chnology Studies Program, Colby College, Waterville, Maine 04901, USA 249 example in the work of Jean Bodin, John Barclay, guished); the proposition that the equinoxes are and Sir John Chardin, were developed into fully marked by extraordinary storms; the notion that fledged theories of climatic determinism by the the moon influences the weather; and whether the mid-18th century. Enlightened philosophers, notably settlement of North America had caused climatic Jean-Baptiste abbe Du Bos, permanent secretary of change . Undoubtedly, these , and other pressing the French Academy, and his more famous disciple, theoretical issues of the time helped shape the baron de Montesquieu, argued that climate and its observational agenda. changes shaped the character of both individuals and nations.6Their approach was essentially a Systems of observation in the 17th and literary one, comparing comments by ancient 18th centuries authorities to modern weather conditions and Descriptive record s related to the climate, such arguing for a strong climatic factor in both human as the opening and closing of rivers, first and temperament and the rise and fall of empires. Du last frosts, and blossoming and harvesting of Bos argued that artistic genius flourished only in fruit trees, existed from early times . The se countries with suitable climates (always between phenological observations continued but, as the 25° and 52°N); that changes in climate must have scientific revolution spread across Europe, occurred to account for the rise and decline of the savants developed new instruments for measur­ creative spirit in particular nation s; and that the ing and weighing the atmosphere and the new climate of Europe and the Mediterranean area was scientific societies promoted the col lection of now warmer than it had been in ancient times. In meteorological observations over widespread explaining the changes on the Italian peninsula in areas. 11 Beginning in the 1650s, significant particular, Du Bos suggeste d: cooperative projects were initiated in England, .. . there has been such a prodigious change in France, Germany and Italy . the air of Rome and the adjacent country, since the time of the Caesars, that it is not at all England astonishing there should be a difference In 166 7, Robert Hooke and Robert Moray pro­ between the present and ancient inhabitants .7 posed that the Royal Society of London collect Astrology also played a formative role in the meteorological observations for "making a his­ development of observational meteorology. In the tory of the weather." 14 No significant collection 14th century, astrologers searching for connec­ of observations resulted from this plan. In 1732, tions between the heavens and the Earth, were James Jurin, Secretary of the Royal Society, among the first to keep daily weather diaries. By tried again, issuing a plea for comparable obser­ the early 17th century, Johannes Kepler and vations. 15 Correspondents were to keep their others conducted astrologically motivated journa ls in a standard format and submit a copy weather research which was widely quoted, if not each year to the Royal Society for comparison imitated.8 Almanacs, second in popularity only to with one another and with the Society's own the Bible, typically contained astrological tables weather book. Observations were received from and weather proverbs for the amusement of their Britain and parts of Europe, India, and North readers. They also contained seasonal and yearly America. Both William Derham and John Hadley weather forecasts for better planting and har­ attempted discussions of the results, but the vests .9 Some in cluded blank pages that could be observations were not comparable because used for notes on the weather. correspondents did not specify the exact nature Undoubtedly, weather studies before 1800 of the instruments, their location, or altitude .l6 conta ined elements that would be unfamiliar to The Royal Society made a third appeal in 1744, today's atmospheric scientist. This is also true, but no observations were collected Y The however, for weather studies in the mid-19th Society did not begin its own register until century. For example, Elia s Loomis's memorial in 1774, and continued it only until 1781. In that support of a state-wide system of meteorological year, the Society declined an invitation to join observations in Ohio summarized some of the the Societas Meteoro/ogica Palatina (see below) . outstanding questions in meteorological science in 1842. 10 These included the environmental theory France of the origin of disease; the nature and behaviour Some 20 years after the Accademia del Cimento of winter storm s, hurricanes and tornadoes (the began its system , Edme Mariotte in France three phenomena had not yet been clearly distin- attempted to delineate the weather over the

250 region embraced by hi s numerous correspon­ Mannheim, where they were published in extenso in dents. 1a His data allowed him to estimate the the Society's Ephemerides. 26 average annual rainfall in France and advance a theory for the wind system s of Europe and the Russia globe. Contemporaneously with the Societas In Russia, an attempt was made to describe the Meteorologica Palatina (see below). the Societe climate of Siberia during the Great Northern royale de Medecine sponsored a system in Expedition of 1734-17 49, led by Vitus Behring, a France in the 1780s.I9 Thirty-nine observers, Danish navigator in the Russian service . Instruc­ many of them physicians , followed a standard tions for observers were written by Daniel format in reporting their observations to Pere Bernoulli, then working in St. Petersburg . Approx­ Louis Cotte who compiled and published the data imately 12 stations, from Kazan to Yakutsk, took in the Society's Histoire (1776-1786).20 By 1778, measurements in 1734. Summaries of the the system had 50 observers, including several observations appear in Cotte's Traite de calibrated barometers set up by Antoine-Laurent metero/ogie (1774) .27 Lavoisier, who planned to extend this system throughout Europe. 2I In two related visionary, but America still-born proposals, J. H. Lambert suggested On the western side of the Atlantic, isolated covering the Earth with observations at points diarists, without reliable instruments, sponsoring defined by the vertices of 20 equilateral trian­ institutions, or proper instruction, contributed to gle s, while the marquis de Condorcet advocated meteorological science by keeping records of the an international meteorological plan which local weather and climate in the 17th and 18th included observations at sea and with balloons .22 centuries. 2a Thomas Jefferson and the Reverend James Madison, president of the College of Germany William and Mary, are credited with making the In a project begun in 171 7, a Breslau doctor, first simultaneous meteorological measurements Johann Kanold, and his colleagues, naturalists in 1778. Jefferson also exchanged observations J. G. Brunschweig and Johann Christian Kund­ with many others, including individuals in Pennsyl­ mann, co llected information on weather hi story, vania, Quebec, Mississippi and England. Jefferson weather-related diseases, and other geophysical hoped to supply observers in each county of each and natural phenomena. Observations were state with accurate instruments. The entire received first from observers in Schlesien, then system wou ld be supervised by the American throughout Germany, and finally from several Philosophical Society and funded by the federal stations in other countries, including Copenhagen, Government. Such a system, however, did not Stockholm, London, Pari s, Turin and Rome . For materialize in Jefferson's lifetime. 13 years, Kanold compiled and published the data in the Breslauer Sammlung. 23 Meteorological projects and State Weather The most famous and best documented Services in the 19th century project of the 18th century was the Societas After a largely experimental period of develop­ Meteorologica Palatina (1781-1795), founded by ment in the 17th, 18th, and early 19th centuries, Elector Karl Theodore of the German state of most modern States instituted national systems Palatinate-Bavaria in 1780 and managed by the of meteorological observation by the 1870s. A court priest, Father Johann Jakob Hemmer. 24 simple li st of the dates of the founding of various Hemmer's stated motive was a "precise under­ national Weather Services, however, does not stand ing" of the weather's influence on agriculture reveal the complex texture of events in this pre­ and health. 2s To this end , the society recorded disciplinary era of the science. Here we will non-meteorological data such as the growth of consider the varied origins of a number of State crops and statistics on mortality, fertility and meteorological observing systems, most of which disease. lt also requested observations on the began as ad hoc efforts, staffed by volunteers . progression of the Sun through the zodiac, the moon's phase and the migration of birds. Fifty­ England seven locations, extending from Siberia to North Until 1823, there was no meteorological soci­ America and southward to the Mediterranean ety or association in England. Long series of received instruments, forms, and instructions, free individual records were kept, but there was no of charge. The observers sent their results to uniformity or comb ined effort in observation .

251 The Meteorological Society of London , founded France in 1823, set no higher standards and produced no lasting results. Members needed no qualifi­ Since 1798, the meteorological records of the cation other than "a desire to promote the sci­ Paris Observatory have been published in ence of Meteorology." 29 extenso. Observations appeared in the Journal The Society was revived in 1836 and, in de physique (1798-1816), in the Annates de 1840, produced the first English map with results chimie et de physique (1816-1835), and, after from 52 station s.3o In the first volume of its 1835, in the Comptes rendus de I'Academie Tran sactions (1839), John Ruskin of Oxford set des Sciences. Rain measurements at Baye, out the ambitious goals of the society: "The Corbigny, Decize and Laroche were taken by Meteorological Society ... has been formed, not the Service des Pants et Cha ussee s, beginning for a city, nor for a kingdom, but for the world. it in 1835. 36 The Annuaire meteorologique de wishes to be the central point, the moving power, France began publication in 1849 and the of a vast machine, and it feels that unless it can Societe meteorologique de France, which con­ be this , it must be powerless; if it cannot do all, tinued this publication and issued other reports it can do nothing." .31 The Meteorological Society and monographs, was founded in 1852. of London, however, held meetings for only In 1854, Urbain Le Verrier replaced Fran~oi s three more years and ceased its publications Arago as director of the Paris Observatory. The soon thereafter.3 2 Results from this group of same year, during the Crimean War, a destruc­ enthusiasts were far from trustworthy. As George tive gale in the Crimean Sea near the port of Symons noted in his history of English meteoro­ Balaclava wrecked Anglo-French transport ship s. logical societies: In response, the Observatory began an experi­ I have seen results published as air tempera­ ment in telegraphing weather facts. it did not, tures obtained from thermometers inside a hen however, issue warnings. Although there were house, I have seen a rain gauge under the eaves many observers in France, there was no central of a cottage, and another under a tree. organization and the Paris Observatory was lim­ In 1850, the British Meteorological Society ited to its own observations. it was not until1863 was founded to establish a "genera l system of that Le Verrier telegraphed forecasts of impending observation, uniformity of registry, systematic weather. (See also pages 238-239 this issue (Ed.).) communication, and other measures for insur­ The first notable government organization ing precision to the advancement of th e aero­ began in 1864, when Le Verrier, with the appro­ statica l branch of physics". 33 James Glaisher val of the minister of public instruction, invited was elected secretary and organized the first the councils-general to establish observing current daily weather reports from reports sent stations at normal schools in France . Fifty-eight by train along lines running to London .34 A royal schools responded. In addition, various depart­ charter was granted to the Society in 1866. mental commissions collected observations In 1854, the British Board of Trade estab­ made under their control and forwarded them lished a Meteorological Department. Robert to the Paris Observatory. Other volunteers­ Fitzroy, former capta in of the Beagle, served as clergy, physicians, teacher s, and others-also Director until1865. Fitzroy coordinated obser­ maintained a meteorological correspondence. vations, reports, and the compilation of data, Most, however, observed without instruments. but issued no forecasts. it was not until1859 One of the products of this joint venture was following the wreck of the lu xury ship Royal the Atlas meteorologique de la France (1865- Charter during a storm off the coast of Wales , 1876) which presented, inter alia, a study of that Fitzroy set up a coastal warning system in thunderstorms. Another series, Nouve//es Britain . The network included 15 stations in meteoro/ogiques (1868-1876), contained Britain, with additiona l reports from Paris. Fitz­ detailed observations from approximately 60 roy's budget was £218 in 1860; three years stations, but these were not inspected or later it stood at £2 989. The Meteorological standard ized until after 1873. Office was established a year later, but the it was not until after the death of Le Verrier British Meteorological Council did not provide a in 1877 that the Bureau central meteorologique daily weather map until1872. The budget for de France was founded; its director was meteorology was £4 500 (US$ 21 000) in Eleuthere Mascart and its budget in 1878 was 1874.35 about US$ 12 000 .37

252 Germany Moreover, they had no standard in struments, methods or times of observation . Results were Until the 1870s, systems of meteorological published quarterly in Correspondence meteo­ observation in the German states suffered from rologique (1850-1864). In 1857, Constantine the political fragmentation of the region. Never­ We sselovski , permanent secretary of the Ru s­ thele ss, inspired by the early example of Mann­ sian Academy of Sciences published 0 Klimate heim , numerous Germanic unions were attempted , Rossia in two volumes with data taken from hi s including the Anstalten fur Witterungskunde in collection of old journa ls. The work is sim il ar to Sachsen-Weimar-Eisenach, begun in 1821 and Blodget's Climatology of the United States , pub­ the Siiddeutsche meteorologische Verein , li shed in the sa me year. begun in 1841, which included Baden , Wurttem­ Th e Director of the Observatory, Kupffer, berg, Norddeutschland, Austro-Hungary, and who was also in charge of the department of parts of Belgium, France, Holland and ltaly. 3s standard weights and measures for the Russian The Prussian Meteorological Institute was Empire, established the first Russian telegraphic established in October 1847 in Berlin with Carl weather reports in 1864 but his network was H. W. Mahlman as Director. In 1848, its scope limited to nine inland and two foreign stations. was roughly comparable to that of the early Kupffer died in 1865. His successor, Ludwig Smithsonian meteorological project (see below) : Kamtz, served only two years until his death there were 35 stations, staff consisting of two and was replaced by Heinrich Wild .42 person s, and a bud get of 9 000 marks (approx­ Wild, who served as director from 1868 to imately US$ 3 000). Mahlman's Manual for 1895, brought a new standard of observation Observers was used throughout Dove's long to the Ru ssian Empire. 43 He was trained in tenure as director (1 849-1879). Bavaria org­ Switzerland, where he had been in charge of anized a meteorologica l network centred in the Swiss meteorological stations and had Munich in 1878. Smal l networks were also est­ established standardized instruments and pro­ ablished in Baden, Wurttemberg, and Saxony.39 cedures. When he came to Ru ssia, he found The Norddeutsche Seewarte (1868), numerous errors in the observations and was although primarily a maritime in stitution , was surprised that none of the meteorological also the central bureau that issued telegraphic stations had been in spected for the past 20 weather announcements from data provided by years. Perhaps A. Khrgian in his History of the diverse state land services . lt became the Meteorology in Russia can be excused for his Deutsche Seewarte in 1872 and began issuing patriotism when he said that Kupffer's systems storm warnings in 1875.40 "were models for that time and were adopted since, with minor modifications, as an interna­ Russia tional standard ." 44 Before 1835, Ru ssia had only a few widely In 1872, with the cooperati on of the Hydro­ scattered private meteorological observers.4 1 graphic Department, Wild began a lithographed Becau se of the Magnetische Verein, eight mag­ meteorological bulletin which contained tele­ netic observatories were set up in Rus sia . By graphic reports from 55 stations (36 in Ru ss ia 1837, A. Ya . Kupffer had established meteoro­ and 19 in Europe and Asia) and provided syn­ logical stations at seven locations run by the optic charts for Ru ssia and parts of Asia . Tele­ Institute of Mining Engineers and at four other graphic storm warnings commenced in 1874. observatories. The results were published in the Annuaire magnetique et meteorologique (St. United States of America Petersburg, 1837-1848). In the first quarter of the 19th century, groups Between 1849 and 1864, the Central of college professors in New England, the US Physical Observatory sponsored a meteorologi­ Army Medical Department, the General Land cal project roughly comparable to that of the Office and academies in the state of New York Smithsonian In stitution. The staff of six had a began the system ati c collection of climatic and bud get of 9 000 roub le s (about US$ 7 000), phenological statistics over large areas of the and received data from eight principal stations country. In the 1830s and 1840s, inspired by (hourly observations) and up to 48 private the "storm controversy" between James Espy observers (monthly journals). The number of and William Redfield , the Joint Committee on private observers declined to 24 by 1864. Meteorology of the American Philosophical

253 Comparisons of observational systems in England, France, Germany, Russia and the USA in the 19th century

England 1823: Meteorological Society of London 1850: British Meteorological Society 1854: Meteorological Depmtment of the Board of Trade, R. Fitzroy director ( 1854-1865) 1867: British Meteorological Office 1874: Budget for meteorology, £4 500 (US$ 2 1 000)

France 1849: Annuaire nu!teorologique de la Fran ce 1852: Societe Meteorologique 1854: Le VeiTier replaced Arago at Paris Observatory 1864: Paris Observatory became a central station, with observations established at nor­ mal schools 1878: Central Meteorological Office, Ministry of Public Education, E. Mascart director

Germany 182 1: Willerungs-Anstalten in Sachsen-Weimar-Eisenach 184 1: Siiddeutsche meteorologische Verein 1847: Pmssian Meteorological institute, Berlin, Car! H. W. Mahlman director, 35 stations ( 1848), budget of 9 000 marks (US$ 3 000) 1868: No rddeutsche Seewarte 1872: Deutsche Seewarte 1875 : Telegraphic storm warnings

Russia 1820-35: 30 private observers, no unity of pl an 1835-41: Institute of Mining Engineers, 7-10 stations, A. Ya. Kupffer, director 1849: Central Physical Observatory, St. Petersburg, I 0 principal stations (hourly obser­ vations), 50 private observers (1850) declining to 24 ( 1864 ); no standard instru­ ments, methods or times of observation, budget of 9 000 roubles (US$ 7 000) 1872: Hydrographic Department, telegraphic bulletins from 36 Ru ssian stations

USA 18 19: US Army Medical Department began observations 1825: New York State Board of Regents began observations at academies 1836-39: Joi nt Committee on Meteorology in Philadelphia 1849-74: Smithsonian meteorological project, up to six hundred observers, annual budget of US$ 4 000, telegraphic experiments 1870s: National storm warning service establi shed under US Army Signal Office, tele­ graphic reports, budget of US$ 25 000 ( 1870), US$ 400 000 ( 1874). Bulletin of International Simultaneous Observations ( 1875-1889).

Society and Franklin Institute, the US Navy and movement and climate statistics. Organizations the Albany Institute collected data on the cooperating with the Smithsonian included the behaviour of storms and winds. Many private US Navy, the states of New York and Massa­ diarists also observed the weather. chusetts, the Canadian Government, the US Between 1849 and 1861 the Smithsonian Army Topographical Engineer s, the Patent Meteorological Project, directed by Joseph Office, the Coast Survey and the Department of Henry, served as the national centre for Agriculture. Experiments with weather telegra­ meteorological research , focusing on storm phy began at the Smithsonian in 1849.

254 In 1870, Chief US Army Signal Officer French failed to cooperate. 51 According to one Albert J. Myer became the first director of a participant: "the members of the conference we ll-funded national storm-warning system returned home, every one followed his own plan employing the nation's telegraphy circuits "for and did what he pleased." 52 the benefit of commerce and agriculture". The Maury may have had one shining moment Signal Office provided daily reports of current as a scientific diplomat but his plans for inter­ conditions and "probabilities" for the next day's national cooperation ultimately came to naught. weather.4s Why? Because, in the 1850s, State systems of meteorological observation had not yet been International cooperation established. Maury had tried to organize an The rise of the International Meteorological international meteorological system from the Organization and WMO has been we ll docu­ top down with little or no support at the grass­ mented by others. 46 lt is important to note, roots level. Even in America, he was deeply however that the development of international embroiled in a dispute with the Smithsonian cooperation in meteorology was dependent on Institution and the Army Medical Department the establishment of State Meteorological over the taking of meteorological observations. 53 Services. Two examples wi ll serve to illustrate Consider a second case , 20 years later, this point. after the USA and most nations of Europe had In 1851, Matthew F. Maury, director of the established national Weather Services. This US Naval Observatory, proposed a plan for a time, the attempt at international cooperation "universal system" of meteorological observa­ and coordination in meteorology succeeded. tions for sea and land .47 This farsighted (but The International Meteorological Organization premature) idea was sparked by a request from (now the World Meteorological Organization) the British Royal Engineers for cooperative traces its roots to an international conference meteorological observations at foreign stations . held in Leipzig in 1872 and to the Fir st Interna­ Maury responded that cooperation at the obser­ tional Congress of Directors of Weather Ser­ vatory and at US Navy yards was indeed pos­ vices held in Vienna in 1873.54 sible and that the system of observation should Because of its well-funded Weather Service be extended throughout the world .4sMaury (over US$ 400 000 in 1874), the USA soon took announced his plan in letters to the foreign min­ the le ad in international cooperation in meteorol­ isters of numerous countries, to scientific soci­ ogy. In 1873, Chief Signal Officer Albert J. Myer, eties, and to private meteorologists: representing the USA at the Vienna conference of directors of Weather Services, proposed that The object is to enlist in thi s great work, the the nations of the world prepare an international public and private meteorological observatories , the good wi ll of the friends of science, the series of simultaneous observations to aid the labors of amateur meteorologists, and the study of world climatology and weather pat­ cooperation of the Navigators, both of the naval terns. Myer's suggestion led to the Bulletin of and commercial marine of all countries; and by International Simultaneous Observations being consultation and conference with them, to devise plans and methods of observing and published by the Signal Office beginning in recording, which by being common, effective, 1875. The Bulletin contained worldwide synoptic and of easy exec ution, may be followed by charts and summaries of observations recorded Meteorologists and Navigators generally. For simu ltaneously at numerous location s around this undertaking the Government of the US desires to secure the friendly cooperation of the the world .ss The "metrological" standards government and people of all countries; and for established by the work of these international the purpose of giving effect to this wish, I have congresses initiated a new era of worldwide been authorized to confer with the proper observation and more rapid and homogeneous authorities on the subject. 49 data inscription as a practical resul\.56 Maury's universal plan was soon reduced in scope to a "conference upon the subject of a Conclusion uniform system of observations on board of The development of observational systems and vessels of war at sea". The conference began national Weather Services in England, France, on 23 August 1853, in Brussels. so The US Navy Germany, Russia and the USA was remarkably subsequently kept its logs by the plan sug­ similar. Before 1800, nations with older and more gested at the conference but the British and developed scientific communities took the lead in 255 experimental projects to collect and compile des lois. Paris. For more on climate and culture observations. In the .19th century, State meteoro­ before 1800 see Clarence J. Glacken , 1967: Traces on the Rhodian Shore: Nature and logical observing systems in Europe, Russia, and Culture in Western Thought from Ancient Times the USA followed roughly comparable paths of to the End of the Eighteenth Century. Berkeley. development (see table on page 254). 7 Armin Hajman Koller, 1937: The abbe Du Climatic surveys of various nations were Bos-His Advocacy of the Theory of Climate: A initiated in the first half of the century; telegraphic Precursor of Johann Gottfried Herder. Cham­ experiments began in the 1850s; and storm­ paign, Ill , 26, 98. warning services were established in the 1860s 8 See, for example, S. J. Tester, 1987: A History and 1870s. International cooperation and an of Western Astrology (Woodbridge, Suffolk, United Kingdom . international bulletin of observations began in the 1870s. However tortuous and halting the path of 9 For example, the first edition of the Bauern­ Praktik (1508, 60 editions) is reproduced in development, it is clear that the establishment of Gustav Hellman (Ed.), 1896: Neudrucke van national Weather Services was an important Schriften und Karten uber Meteorologie und antecedent to effective international cooperation. Erdmagnetismus, 5, Appendix, Berlin. The growth of these systems should not be 10 Elias Loomis, 1842: "Memorial of a Committee seen simply as the result of a desire for better of the Western Literary Institute and College of synoptic and climatological data. Many other Professional Teachers-To the Honorable the General Assembly of the State of Ohio", clipping motivations existed, including questions of medi­ from the Hudson Observer, 24 January. local cal geography, climate change, astronomical Meteorology, 2, United States, "Scrap Book," influences, institutional support, and even national Records of the Weather Bureau, US National pride. lt is clear that any comprehensive history Archives. of the development of the science will have to 11 For details, see W. E. Knowles Middleton, 1964: take into account the empirical, the theoretical, The History of the Barometer, Baltimore; 1966: A History of the Thermometer and Its Use in and the institutional horizons of meteorology. o Meteorology, Baltimore; and 1969: Invention of the Meteorological Instruments, Baltimore. Notes and references 12 Saggi di naturali esperienze fatte neii'Acca­ demia del Cimento, 1666: In: Oichiarazione A case-study of such deve lopment is James d'alcun lstrumenti per conoscer I'Aiterazioni Rodger Fleming, 1990: Meteorology in America, deii'Aria, Firenze. 1800-1870 (The John Hopkins Univ. Press, Baltimore). For additional references, see 13 In the Archivo Meteorologico Centra/e ltaliano Steven Bru sh and Helmut Landsberg, 1985: The (Firenze, 1858), reproduced in G. Hellmann, History of Geophysics and Meteorology: An 1897: Neudrucke van Schriften und Karten uber Annotated Bibliography (Garland , New York) . Meteorologie und Erdmagnetismus, 7, Berlin, 9-1 7. Brief mention of this system also appears 2 Hi storian Gustav Hellmann found 156 commen­ in H. H. Frising er, 19 77: The History of Meteo­ tarie s on Aristotle's meteorology published rology to 1800, New York. before 1650 and only 18 after that date . G. Hellmann , 1917: "Entwicklungsgeschichte des 14 Thoma s Sprat, 166 7: History of the Royal meteorologischen Lehrbuches". In: Beitrage zur Society, London. Reprint edition: J. I. Cope and Geschichte der Meteorologie, 2. Berlin . 9-10. H. W. Jones (Eds.), 1958, London, 173-179. 3 See, for example, John Grant, 1662: Natural 15 Jurin, 1723: "lnvitatio ad Observationes Meteo­ and Political Observations ... Upon the Bills of rologicas communi consilio instituendas", Phi/. Mortality. London . Tran s. 32, 422-427. 4 John Arbuthnot, 17 31: An Essay Concerning the 16 Phi/. Trans. , 1732: 261; 1733: 101; 1734: Effects of Air on Human Bodies. London. 332, 405, 458; 1738: 154; 1742: 243. 5 John Fothergill, 1783: "Some Remarks on the 17 Roger Pickering, 17 44: "Sche me of a Diary of Bill s of Mortality in London with an Account of a the Weather, together with draughts and Late Attempt to Establish an Annual Bill for This descriptions of Machines subservient there­ Nation". In: John C. Lettsom (Ed.): The Works of unto", Phi/. Trans., 43 (3 May). John Fothergi/1, MO. London. 2: 107-113. 18 G. Hellmann, 1914: "Die Altesten instrumentellen 6 Du Bos sponsore d the ca ndidacy of Mon­ meteorologischen Beobachtungen in Deutch­ tesquieu for the French Academy and provided land', Beitrage zur Geschichte der Meteorologie, the foundation for his theory of climate and 1, 2, Berlin, 103-107. Edme Mariotte, 1717: culture. See Jean-Baptiste, abbe Du Bos, 1719: Oeuvres de Mariotte, 2 vols. in one, Leiden. Reflexions critiques sur la poesie et sur la 19 Charles C. Gillispie, 1980: Science and Polity in peinture. 2 vols,. Paris ; and Charles de Secon­ France at the End of the Old Regime, Princeton , dat, baron de Montesquieu, 17 48: De /'esprit 226 pp. 256 20 On Cotte, see J. A. Kington, 1970: "A Late 29 George J. Symons, "History of English Meteoro- Eighteenth-Century Source of Meteorological logical Societies, 1823 to 1880," Quarterly Data", Weather, 25, 169-175; Theodore S. Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 7 Feldman, 1983: "The History of Meteorology, (1881): 65-98. See also Robert Watson-Watt, 1750- 1800: A Case Study in the Development "The Evolution of Meteorological Institutions in of Experimental Physics," Ph.D. dissertation, the United Kingdom," Quarterly Journal of the Univ. of California, Berkeley (Ann Arbor: Univer- Royal Meteorological Society, 76 (1950): sity Microfilms, 84-13 376), 214 . 11 5- 24; and Richard Carless, "A Brief Hi story of the Royal Meteorological Society," Weather, 21 Lavoisier to Blondeau, 16 November 1776. In : 5 (1950) : 78- 83. R. Fric (Ed.), 1964: Oeuvres de Lavoisier: Correspo ndance, 3, Paris, 658; also Lavoisier, 30 Symons, "English Meteorological Societies", 1790: "Regles pour Predire le Changement de 76. Symons provides a useful sum mary of the Temps", Literary Magazine. minutes of the proceedings of the Society for 1823-1824and 1836-1 843. 22 Lambert, 1773: "Expose de que/ques observa- tions ... pour repandre du jour sur la meterolo- 31 Ruskin , J. , 1839: "Remarks on the Present gie", Nouveaux memoires de I'Academie Roya/e State of Meteorological Science," Meteorologi- des Sciences et Belles-Lettres de Berlin, 60-65; cal Society of London, Transactions 1 (1839): Condorcet, 1795: "Equisse d'un tableau 56-59. historique ... ", Oeuvres completes de Con- dorcet, 8 (Paris, 1804). 32 The Quarterly Journal of Meteorology was published from 1841 to 1843. 23 Or Sammlung van Natur- und Medicin-, wie auch hierzu gehorigen Kunst- und Literatur-Geschichten 33 Symons, "Engli sh Meteorological Societies," (1718-1730). Gustav Hellmann, 1914: "Die 93, 88. Vorlauffer der Societas Meteorologica Palatina ," 34 George J. Symons, "The First Daily Weather Beitrage zur Geschichte der Meteorologie, 1, 5, Map," Meteorological Magazine 32 (1897): Berlin, 139-147; Hellmann, 1883: "Umriss einer 133-135; A copy of this map was published in Geschichte der meteorologischen Beobachtun- Meteorological Magazine 31 (1896): 11 3. gen in Deutchland' , Repertorium der Deutchen Bernard Ash ley, Weather Men (London, 1974), Meteorologie, 884-886; Abraham Wolf, 1939: A 39-41, says it was 31 August 1848, but History of Science, Technology, and Philosophy provides no references. in the Eighteenth Century, New York, 284; and Emil J. Waiter, 1952: "Technische Bedingungen 35 Among the numerous short articles on the in der historichen Entwicklung der Meteorologie", British Meteorological Office are the following: Gesnerus 9, 55-66. "Meteorological Office Centenary, 1855-1955," Meteorological Magazine, 84 (1955): 161-98; 24 David C. Cassidy, 1985: "Meteorology in David Brunt, "A Hundred Years of Meteorology, Mannheim: The Palatine Meteorological Society, 1851-1951 ,"Advancement of Science, 8 1780-1795 ", Sudhoffs Archiv: Zeitschrift fur (1951 ): 114-24; Brunt, "Th e Centenary of the Wissenschaftsgeschichte 69 , 8-25; Albert Meteorological Office: Retrospect and Cappel, 1980: "Societas Meteorologica Palatina Prospect," Science Progress, 44 (1956): (1780-1795)", Annalen der Meteoro/ogie n.s. 193-207; G. A. Bull, "Short History of the 16, 10-27, 255-261; Friedrich Traumi.iller, Meteorological Office ," Meteorological Maga- 1885: Die Mannheimer meteorologische zine, 83 (1955): 163-167; R. P. W. Lewis, "The Gesel/schaft (1780-1 795): Ein Beitrag zur Founding of the Meteorological Office, Geschichte der Meteoro/ogie, Le ipzig. 1854-1855," Meteorological Magazine , 110 25 J. J. Hemmer, 1783: "Historia Societas (1981): 221-227; and Oliver Graham Sutton , Meteorologicae Palatinae" In: Societatis "The Meteorological Office, 1855-1955," Meteorologicae Palatinae, Ephemerides, 1, Nature 175 (1955): 963-65. More substantial 1781 , 1-54; cited by Cassidy, "Meteorology in and more recent is Jim Burton, "Robert Fitzroy Mannheim", 15. and the Early History of the Meteorological Office ," British Journal for the History of 26 Societatis Meteoro/ogicae Palatinae, Science, 19 (198 6): 147-176. 1783-1795: Ephemerides , 12 vols. 36 Alfred Angot, "Premier catalogue des observa- 27 E. I. Tichomirov, 1932: "Instructions for Russian tions meteorologiques faites en France depuis meteorological stations of the 18th century," (in l'origine jusqu'en 1850" In: Annates du Bureau Russian, English su mmary) Ce ntral Geophysical central meteorologique de France, 1895, 1 Observatory, Proceedings, 3-12. Memoires (Paris, 1897): 89-146. 28 See Alfred J. Henry, 1893: "Early Individual 37 Doublet, "La meteorologie en France et en Observers in the United States", US Weather Allemagne," Revue philomathique de Bordeaux Bureau Bulletin, 11, 291-302; and James M. etdu Sud-Ouest, 14 (1911): 213-232, Havens (Ed.), 1956: An Annotated Bibliography 250-267; 15 (191~: 103-128,169-186. See of Meteorological Observations in the United also Meteorologie nationale [France) "Ce qu'est States, 1731-1818, Florida State University la meteorologie fran<;:aise" (Paris, 1952): and Department of Meteorology Technical Rept. No. John L. Davis, "Weather Foreca sting and the 5 (Tal lahassee , Fla.). Deve lopment of Meteorological Theory at the

257 Paris Observatory, 1853-1 878", Annals of ambig uou s, cf. Frances Lei gh Williams , Science, 41 (1984): 359-382. Matthew Fontai ne Maury: Scientist of the Sea 38 Hellmann, "Umriss einer Geschichte"; data from (New Brunswick, N.J., 1963), whi ch praises the Verein appear in Annalen fur Meteorologie, him and John Lei ghly "Introdu cti on" to Matthew Erdmagnetismus und verwandte Gegenstande, Fontaine Maury, The Physical Geography of beginning in 1842. See also Hellmann "Die the Sea and Its Meteorology (Ca mbrid ge, Entwicklung der meteorologischen Beobachtun- Ma ss., 1963), pp. ix-xxx, whi ch is hi ghly gen in Deutchland von der ersten Anfangen bis criti ca l. zur Einrichtung staat/icher Beobachtungsnetze" 48 John F. Crampton, Britain's Charge d'Affairs to Abhandlungen der Preussische Akademie der Daniel Webster, Secretary of State, 13 Novem- Wissenschaften, Physikalisch·mathematische ber 1851 ; transmitted to Secretary of the Navy Klasse , 1 (Berlin, 1926). William A. Graham, 14 November 1851; 39 Gustav Hellmann. Geschichte des Kiiniglich Charles Morris, Ch ief of Bureau of Ordnance Preussischen Meteorologischen lnstituts von and Hydrography to Maury, 19 November seiner Grunding im Jahre 184 7 bis zu seiner 1851; Maury to Morris, 21 Noember 185 1. All Reorganisation im Jahre 1885 (Berlin , 1887). letters quoted in Maury, Establishment of an See also Hellmann "Katalogen der Schriften und Universa l System. Erfindungen", Repertorium , 1-744. A bibliogra- 49 Maury to the Foreign Ministers of Belgium , phy of 208 of Dove's works appears on pages Austria, Netherland s, Sweden and Norway, 93-103. Two Sicili es and Parma , Sardinia, Guatemala , 40 E. Doublet, "La Meteorologie en France et en Argentina, Chile , Mexico, Ni carag ua, Allemagne". Revue philomathique de Bordeaux Venezuela, and Peru, 23 December 1851, et sud ouest 15 (1912): 173; Heinrich Sei lkopf, Letters Se nt, Na va l Observatory Records , US "Zur Geschichte der meteorologischen Arbeit an National Archives . der Deutchen Seewarte, Hamburg'', Annalen der 50 Maritime Co nferen ce held at Brus sels for Meteoro/ogie, 3 (1950): 53- 56. devising a uniform system of meteorological 41 Alexander Woeikof, "Meteorology in Russia", observations at sea, Au gust and September Annual Report of the Smithsonian Institution, 1853 (Brussels, 1853), pub li shed in both 1872, 267-298; F. Clawer "Cata/og der English and Fre nch. Meteorologischen Beobachtungen im Russichen Reich Zusammengestelt" In: H. Wild (Ed.), 51 Maury to Lieut. Marin Jansen, Royal Dutch Repertorium fur Meteorologie 2 (St. Petersburg, Navy, 8 November 1853, 2 September 1858, 1872). Contains information on meteorological Box KN, Nava l Record s Collection, US Nation al observations at 330 locations in Ru ssia from Archives. 1726. See also Pavel Nikolaevich Tverkoi, 52 Lamont [B avaria) to Maury, n.d. ea. 1853, Razvitie Meteorologii v USSR [Development of Letters Received, Naval Observatory Records, meteorology in the USSR) (Leningrad, 1949). US National Archives. According to Lamont, 42 Woeikof, "Meteorology in Russia ." the same non-cooperation hampered the "Magnetic Conference" in England in 1845. 43 Cleveland Abbe , "Meteorology in Russia", Monthly Weather Review, 27 (1899): 106. 53 For details see Fl eming, Meteorology in America, 106-110. 44 A. Kh. Khrgian , "The Hi story of Meteorology in Russia", Actes du VI/le Congres International 54 Most of these international meetings are we ll d'Histoire des Sciences (Paris, 1958): 446. A documented. See, for example, Meteorologi- book-length treatment by the same author with ea / Con ference Proceedings 12 vols in 1 international comparisons is "Meteorology: A (London, 1873-1881), whi ch contains reports Hi storical Survey", secon d edition, I. (Leningrad, on meeting s from Leipzi g (1 872) to Bern 1959), tran s. Ran Hardin (Jerusalem, 1970). (1880). See also 0. L. Fa ss ig (Ed.), Report of 45 See Fleming, Meteorology in America, for details. the Internati ona l Meteorological Congress held at Ch icago, Ill. , 21-24 August 1893, under 46 See in particular, Daniel Howard One Hundred the auspices of the congress auxil iary of the Years of International Cooperation in Meteorol- World's Co lumbian Expo sition , US Dept. of ogy (1873-1973), A Historical Review (Geneva, Agriculture, Weath er Bureau, Bulletin, 11 1973). See also H. G. Cannegieter, "The History (Washington, DC, 1894, 1896), 772 pp. of the International Meteorological Organization, 1872-1951 ", Annalen der Meteorologie n.s ., 1 55 Myer, Annual Rep ort of the US Army Signal (1963): 7-280. Office, 1874, 505. 47 [M atthew F. Maury) On the Establishment of an 56 Bruno Latour, "Visualizati on and Cognition: Universal System of Meteorological Observa- Thinkin g with Eyes and Hand s" Knowledge and tions by Sea and Land (Washington, DC , Society: Studie s in the Sociology of Culture 185 1). Maury's role in the hi story of sc ience is Past and Prese nt, 6 (1986): 22-23.

<£><£>'£>

258 THE GLOBAL CLIMATE SYSTEM IN 1996

Not as warm as 1995 and spring over much of Europe and the western Ru ssian Federation , Canada and the northern While in some parts of the world, 1996 was one USA, although the se feature s were compensated of the coldest years in recent decades, the global by the warmth over eastern Siberia , northern mean surface temperature anomaly was overall Africa and the oceans. the eighth highest. lt was also the eighteenth con­ secutive year with positive values since records La Nifla conditions prevail began in 1860. The 1996 estimated global A mature cold episode, or La Nifia , conditions mean surface temperature was 0.22°C above developed in 1995 and continued until April the 1961-1990 base-period average compared 1996. This state of the ENSO is characterized to the record anomaly of 0.38oC in 1995. by colder-than-normal equatorial water in the In the southern hemisphere, the 1996 sur­ eastern Pacific Ocean and enhanced rainfall face temperature anomaly of 0.21 oc was the over warmer-than-normal water in the West same as in 1995. In the northern hemisphere, Pacific. Cold episodes are also characterized by however, the anomaly of 0.23°C was consider­ stronger-than-normal ea sterly trade winds to ably cooler than the 0.54°C record anomaly in the east of the international date line . The 1995. Large-scale wind patterns in the north­ oceanic and atmospheric conditions moder­ ern hemisphere, a weak tendency to cool and ated con siderably during May 1996 but a La Nifia conditions in the eastern tropical weak , cold-episode-like sea-surface tempera­ Pacific exerted an important cooling influence ture pattern continued to diminish more slowly in 1996. and persisted until the end of the year. Rainfall Cooler-than-normal conditions prevailed over pattern s typically identified with cold episodes, much of the land areas in the northern hemi­ e.g . above-normal rainfall in the Indian and sphere and warmer-than-normal conditions pre­ Australian monsoons, were experienced over dominated over the oceans . lt was a cold winter several regions of the globe .

Dry lun.-Oct.; very wet area cons umed Nov.-Dec. bywild fires

Weak La Nina early & late

.... An nual precipi tation .- surpluses+250 to, ,. +6 15 mm at some si tes

Wet ea rly &late

Cold & snowy winter localized bliua rd s Uu l.); subnormal wi nter {especi ally Aug.-Nov.) & Nov.-Dec. temperatures

Major global climate anomalies and episodic events in 1996 (source: Climate Prediction Cell/et; NOAA, USA)

259 Increase~ stratospheric ozone depletion driest year since records began in 1766. In sharp over the northern hemisphere contrast to this dryness, south-west Europe and north-west Africa received copious quantities of Significant ozone depletion was observed in mea­ rain which brought much-needed relief to a region surements of the total column concentrations that had been plagued by extreme dryness for the over the middle and polar latitudes of the north­ previous six years. During the wet season, winter ern hemisphere in 1996. The ozone deficiencies precipitation amounts were more than double the were greatest during the period from mid-January normal annual amounts at several locations. For to, and including most of, March. Measured example, Malaga, Spain, recorded 1 155 mm of ozone concentration values below 250 m atm cm rain and Casablanca, Morocco, received 1 168 mm were recorded on many days, which contributed compared to normal annual values of 583 mm and to monthly mean values being more than 20-30 523 mm, respectively. Despite the benefits of heavy per cent less than those during the 1957-1979 rainfall to this drought-prone region, death and base period . The polar stratospheric circulation displacement from flooding also resulted. vortex with cold lower stratospheric temperatures February to April rainfall totals were nearly (12-15°C below normal) was dominant over the double the normal in eastern Ethiopia, southern same region at this time. Temperatures below Kenya, northern Tanzania and southern Uganda. In -78°C are known to facilitate the generation of the Middle East, exceptional rainfall totals of polar stratospheric clouds which, in the presence 50-300 mm (three to seven times the normal of human-derived halogenated compounds and amount) fell during this period in north-eastern combined with the seasonal increase in solar radia­ Saudi Arabia , the United Arab Emirates and in the tion, can cause severe ozone destruction. north- and east-central areas of the Islamic Over the Antarctic, the "ozone hole" phenom­ Republic of Iran. enon of the austral spring of 1996 was generally comparable with the events of the past four years, Devastating floods in China and south­ although a new record was set in its longevity. eastern Asia Above-average snow cover over the north­ Spring and summer floods, the worst in 50 years ern hemisphere at some locations, resulted in widespread dam­ age across China, including more than 1 000 The 1996 annual average snow-cover area deaths, together with injury and property dam­ (25 .3 million km 2) in the northern hemisphere age affecting at least 20 million people . Totals of was above the median for the first time since 1 050-1 370 mm of rain fell on southern Anhui 1985. The 1996 snow cover ranked as the fifth and adjacent areas during the 73-day period end­ snowiest in the 24 years of the satellite record . ing on 3 August, while totals of 500-1 000 mm While 1985 was ranked second in this record, were recorded at most other locations across the upper ranks are dominated by the snowy the Yangtze River Valley. The ensuing flooding 1970s (1978-first, 1977-third, and 1973- was exacerbated by the arrival of typhoon Herb fourth). The 1996 record is primarily a reflection in early August, which brought excessive rain s as of the above-average snow cover in the spring it pushed into Fujian. The Yangtze River flooded (March-May) and autumn (September-Novem­ again in early November as a result of excep­ ber). Above-average hemispheric snow cover was tional unseasonal rains . also observed in January 1996, while all other During the period 10 August to 23 November, months of the past year experienced below-aver­ more than 500 mm of rain fell on much of Thai­ age snow cover in the hemispheric mean . land, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, Viet Around the world Nam and south-central China, with most stations in VietNam reporting 1 030-2 340 mm of rain, Contrasting precipitation regimes: dry over which was up to 610 mm above normal. Media Europe; wet in northern Africa and the reports indicated that the Mekong River delta Middle East remained flooded for much of October and early lt was an extremely dry year across central Europe November and many lives were lost. from the United Kingdom to the Russian Federation . In Belgium, the period from July 1995 to July 1996 Wet in northern and central South America was the driest since regular observations began in For the year as a whole , 1 500-2 140 mm 1833. For England and Wales, it was the third (250-695 mm above normal) of precipitation

260 fell in north-eastern Argentina, eastern and rains also extended into the lower Great Lakes southern Paraguay and southern Brazil. Other region and further north-east, in the Saguenay areas also reported well-above-normal annual region of Quebec, heavy rains caused devastat­ precipitation with some of the departures from ing flooding in July. This rainfall anomaly in normal being: +250-350 mm in east-central Canada, combined with heavy rains in central Argentina; +235-355 in northern Brazil; Alberta and southern British Columbia, con­ +255-615 mm in central and lower northern tributed to 1996 being the wettest year in the Peru ; + 130-535 mm in south-eastern Brazil country in the 49-year period si nce comparable and +275-335 mm in isolated spots across precipitation records began in 1948. An active the north-eastern half of Bolivia. During the 48- hurricane season followed, which had devastat­ day period ending on 18 October, 625-890 ing effects on parts of the south-eastern USA. mm (110-400 mm above normal) of rain inun­ dated isolated sites in Colombia. Record snowfalls in the eastern USA and South Africa Flooding in north-western USA, drought in One of the heaviest snowfalls ever buried much the south-west of the mid-Atlantic and lower north-eastern parts Both the 1995-1996 wet season (October-April) of the USA in early January. Many areas and the first three months of the 1996-1997 received more than 50 cm of snow. Measured wet season featured significantly above-normal totals topped 75 cm at Philadelphia , establishing precipitation from parts of central California a single-storm record. Most areas from Washing­ northward into southern British Columbia. The ton, DC, north-eastwards to Rhode Island 1996 annual precipitation totals were in the reported one of the five biggest snowfalls of all range of 125-250 per cent of normal with sev­ time, forcing most airports to close and making eral single-year records reported (e.g. 3 117 mm other modes of transportation virtually impossi­ at Tillamook, Oregon). The wet weather caused ble. The snow depth at Boston topped 76 cm for several episodes of local flooding and, in south­ the first time in the city's history. ern British Columbia, there were avalanches and Exceptional cold and snowy weather structural collapses as a result of heavy Decem­ affected much of South Africa from 5 to 10 July. ber snowfalls. Temperatures dropped well below freezing with During the period from October 1995 to May lows down to -10°C. Snow fell over large parts 1996, precipitation totals were the lowest in just of the country, with some areas receiving their over 100 years of record in Oklahoma and the largest single-storm totals in 60 years. second lowest in Texas and Arizona . The intensity of the drought in the south-western USA severely Heavy rains in parts of Australia and New affected the winter wheat crop and engendered Zealand prime wildfire conditions. By 1 September, Annual rainfall totals of 2 075-2 535 mm 22 945 km 2 of forests had been consumed by (285-460 mm above normal) were measured wildfire across continental USA which was the in parts of the Cape York Peninsula, while greatest amount in the 19-year record. Record departures of + 110-290 mm accumulated heat was another factor contributing to the forest across north-western Northern Territory and fires. lt was the warmest year in California since north-eastern Western Australia. Excess ive records began in 1895, the second warmest in rains, causing localized flooding, fell in north­ Nevada and the third warmest in both Arizona eastern New South Wales and south-eastern and New Mexico. Queensland during April and May at a time when the rainy season normally expires. Two­ Heavy summer rains in eastern North month departures from normal varied between America +345 and 520 mm . From late April to the end of July, persistently New Zealand experienced very wet weather above-normal precipitation was observed from in the August-November period with at least 300 the central plains of the USA eastward across mm of precipitation falling on most of the country. the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys to the Up to 1 665 mm were measured in parts of west­ southern and east-central Appalachians . The ern South Island and annual totals reached as north-east recorded its second wettest June-July high as 3 200-3 870 mm (515-740 mm above period in 102 years. The area affected by heavy normal). 0

261 COMMISSION FOR MARINE METEOROLOGY TWELFTH SESSION-HAVANA, CUBA, 10-20 MARCH 1997

The Commission for Marine Meteorology (CMM) Emergency Response Support System (MPERSS), held its twelfth session in the International Con­ the Marine Climatological Summaries Scheme ference Centre, Havana, Cuba, from 10 to 20 (MCSS) and the Global Digital Sea Ice Data Bank March 1997. Substantial su pport for the meet­ (GDSIDB) . He also noted the advances made in ing, as well as warm and generous hospitality, the quantity and quality of data collected from a were provided by the Cuban Meteorological variety of marine observing systems ; the final­ Institute . At the opening ceremony, participants ization of the South East Asian Centre for Atmo­ were welcomed by Dr Rosa Elena Sime6n, Min­ spheric and Marine Prediction (SEACAMP) pro­ ister of Science, Technology and Environment; ject proposal; the spec ialized training courses Dr Fabio Fajardo, President, Cuban Environ­ held and technical reports issued . The Commis­ ment Agency; Dr Tomas Gutierrez Perez, Per­ sion expressed its satisfaction with progress manent Representative of Cuba with WMO; and made in all those areas, and offered its parti cu­ Prof. G. 0. P. Obasi, Secretary-General of WMO. lar gratitude to Mr Shearman and the vice-presi­ The Secretary-General congratulated the dent, Dr Lim Joo Tick , for the excellent service Commission on its continuing high level of and guidance they had provided to CMM during achievement in the implementation of its work their eight years in office. plan and in its support for WMO and national The Commission was aware of the ever­ Meteorological and Hydrological Services. He increasing involvement of national Meteorologi­ outlined the main issues to be addressed dur­ ca l Services in the operation of oceanographic ing the session and stressed the importance observing networks, management of oceano­ placed by the Organization on the marine pro­ graphic data, provision of oceanographic ser­ gramme in general and, in particular, on the vices and the consequent need for CMM itself to work of CMM in implementing this programme evolve and assume a greater role in operational and in supporting marine services , operational oceanography in general. Such a role would, of meteorology, global climate studies and all course, involve even closer coordination and other WMO programmes. cooperation with the Intergovernmental Oceano­ The Commission now has a total of 198 graphic Commission (IOC). In this context, the members from 112 Members of WMO and the Commission reviewed and supported the pro­ session was attended by 83 participants from posal made by the Executive Council for a 39 Members of WMO and five international detailed study of ways of enhancing cooperation organizations. Although there was a good repre­ between CMM and IOC, including the concept of sentation from most other Regions , it was dis­ possible eventual eo-sponsorship of CMM by appointing that no Member of Region Ill was IOC . lt is expected that a joint WMO/IOC report represented at the session . Nevertheless, on the subject will be made available for meet­ debates were lively and well-informed, and a ings of the governing bodies of the two Organi­ good range of views was expressed from coun­ zations in 1998. tries bordering all the world's major oceans. In his report to the session the president, Marine meteorological services Mr R. Shearman, recognized that the past inters­ The new WMO marine broadcast system for the essional period had largely been one of consoli­ GMDSS of the International Maritime Organiza­ dation of the major decisions taken and projects tion (IMO) is now virtually fully implemented and initiated at CMM-XI, including, in particular, those operational. The Commission adopted some relating to the Global Maritime Distress and sma ll amendments to the Manual on Marine Safety System (GMDSS), the Marine Pollution Meteorological Services in order to refine the

262 Ha va na, Cuba, March 1997- Parti cipants in the twelfth session of the Commission for Marine Meteorol ogy system further. lt also reviewed and supported iliary ships (WMO-No. 47). The Commission rec­ the proposals of the rapporteur concerning the ognized that the WMO wave programme was international coordination of NAVTEX services in providing valuable support to many Members in the Baltic Sea region and adopted a small addi­ their efforts to enhance ocean wave-related ser­ tion to the Manual regarding the international vices, and adopted a revised programme for the coordination of NAVTEX services in general. period 1997-2001, which will include a new The MPERSS, adopted at CMM-XI for implemen­ wave forecast verification scheme . tation on a trial basis, is a worthwhile but com­ The Commission acknowledged the impor­ plex concept, and the Commission therefore tance, to both national Meteorological Services and agreed to continue the trials for another four users, of the regular marine meteorological ser­ years. lt also supported the idea of convening a vices monitoring scheme, adopted as an ongoing major seminar/ workshop on MPERSS in 1998. activity by CMM-XI. lt reviewed the results of the The Commission was particularly pleased recent survey with interest and urged their wide dis­ with the successful implementation and opera­ tribution. lt also decided to continue the scheme tion of the revised MCSS, as well as the GDSIDB. indefinitely but requested some revisions to the lt adopted some small amendments to details of questionnaire, which would be redesigned profes­ the MCSS and urged Members to expand their sionally in time for the next survey in 1999/ 2000. contributions to both activities, which provide substantial support to the World Climate Pro­ Marine observing systems gramme and to the work of the IPCC, as well as A number of techniques and platforms are now to the provision of marine services. The value of available for observing the marine atmosphere, a comprehensive metadata set relating to the air-sea interface and the upper ocean, in sup­ observing platforms and instruments in the evalu­ port of the provision of marine services, opera­ ation and processing of marine climatological tional meteorology and global climate studies in data was recognized, and the Commission there­ particular. These include the traditional voluntary fore adopted proposals for an expansion of the observing ships (VOS), drifting and moored important ship catalogue contained in the Inter­ buoys, the Integrated Global Ocean Services Sys­ national list of selected, supplementary and aux- tem (IGOSS) ship-of-opportunity programme, the

263 Automated Shipboard Aerological Programme SEACAMP project had been finalized and that (ASAP) and, increasingly, both ground- and satel­ the project was being considered for implemen­ lite-based remote sensing. The Commission tation by the Association of South East Asian acknowledged the important work being under­ Nations (ASEAN). lt recognized that such a taken by the Data Buoy Cooperation Panel, cooperative regional approach to the enhance­ IGOSS and the ASAP Coordinating Committee in ment of marine observing systems and services coordinating and managing specific components could be appropriate in many other ocean areas of the overall network, and congratulated these where maritime countries had similar problems bodies on their achievements . lt also recognized and interests and welcomed the actions already the continuing vital role played by the VOS in sup­ under way to develop a similar project in the port of both services and research, as well as the western Indian Ocean for countries in eastern importance of the Port Meteorological Officers in and southern Africa. The Commission requested managing and servicing the VOS. lt therefore that, following the finalization of plans, consider­ agreed to establish a special subgroup to coordi­ ation should be given to the possibilities for nate the operations of the VOS network, effect other regional projects in areas such as West enhancements to data quantity, quality and timeli­ Africa and the Black Sea. The Commission fur­ ness and liaise with user groups. The group ther requested that the planning process for the would also provide the liaison with INMARSAT on western Indian Ocean project should give urgent improving the use of its facilities for the collection consideration to ways of reviving the proposal of meteorological and oceanographic data from for the long-term training course in marine mete­ ships at sea. The Commission appointed a rap­ orology and physical oceanography at RMTC porteur on ocean satellites to liaise with CBS, the Nairobi , which it had strongly supported at CMM­ Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) and the XI and which could provide an important compo­ Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) on nent of the project. requirements for satellite-derived ocean data and The series of regional and/ or specialized to advise Members on the applications of such training seminars and workshops which had data to the provision of marine services. Further, taken place over the past inter-sessional period it formally adopted a subgroup on radar ocean was welcomed by the Commission. lt urged that sensing to develop operational applications for they should continue, as they were an effective ground-based ocean radars. means of providing specialized training to In a general sense, the Commission recog­ marine personnel in national Meteorological Ser­ nized the urgency of implementing a coherent vices. The Commission also noted with satisfac­ approach to managing and regulating the mainte­ tion the large number of technical reports and nance of an operational ocean observing system related publications which had been issued dur­ for climate on the basis of detailed requirements ing the past four years and strongly advocated now available from GOOS and GCOS through the the continuation of this publication programme, Ocean Observations Panel for Climate. lt consid­ which benefited all maritime Members. lt adopted ered that it had both the operational expertise and for publication a fully revised version of the the regulatory responsibilities necessary to do Guide to Marine Meteorological Services (WMO­ this, when combined with the particular oceano­ No. 4 71 ), and expressed its appreciation to the graphic capabilities provided through IOC and vari­ rapporteur, Mr D. Linforth (Australia). for his ous bodies such as IGOSS and the Data Buoy work in preparing the revised draft. With regard Cooperation Panel (DBCP). lt therefore decided on to publications in general, the Commission the immediate preparation of a detailed, coordi­ requested that as many as possible should also nated action plan for the implementation of be made available in electronic form through the relevant components of GCOS/GOOS, based on WMO homepage on the World Wide Web. already existing scientific designs, which will spec­ ify actions to be taken by CMM subsidiary bodies, Ocean affairs IGOSS, the DBCP and related bodies. In addition to the long-standing, close and expanding cooperation with IOC, the Commis­ Education, training and implementation sion recognized the value to WMO and to the support marine programme of the collaboration which The Commission noted with satisfaction that already occurs with other international organiza­ detailed documentation for the joint WMO/IOC tions such as IMO, the International Hydro-

264 graphic Organization, the International As soc ia­ Working groups and rapporteurs tion of Lighthou se Authoritie s, INMARSAT, The Commission decided to retain the same basic UNEP, etc ., and thanke d those organizations for stru cture of four main working groups (Advisory their support and cooperation. More generally, Working Group and Working Groups on: Marine the Commission supported the continued Meteorological Services; Marine Observing Sys­ involvement of WMO in the lntersecretariat tems; and Education, Training and Implementation Committee on Scientific Programmes Relatin g Support), supported by a number of subgroups on to Oceanography, and also in the ACC Subcom­ more specialized theme s. lt also appointed ·a num­ mittee on Oceans and Coastal Areas, whi ch had ber of rapporteurs within the working groups to responsibility, inter alia, for coordinating and prepare reports on specific subjects . reporting on the follow-up to UNCED and imple­ mentation of Agend a 21's Chapter 1 7. Outstanding service awards The Commission noted with satisfaction Certificates for outstanding service to CMM the action already proposed within WMO and by were awarded at the session to: individual Members to contribute to the celebra­ • Mr D. Linforth (Australia), for contributions over tions of the International Year of the Ocean (IYO) more than 20 years to the development, 1998, including the designation by the Exec u­ expansion and enhancement of marine meteo­ tive Council of the theme for World Meteorologi­ rological services globally, and to the provision cal Day 1998 as "Weather, oceans and human of expert technical advice in this field; activity". lt supported the initiative with in the UN system to prepare a UN Atlas of the Oceans, to • Mr D. Painting (United Kingdom), for publicize the work of UN agencies in the marine contributions to the standardization of field and as a contribution to the IYO, recom­ meteorological instruments and methods mended WMO's participation in the project and of observation, the expansion of marine urged Members to make every effort to provide climatological databases and the enhance­ suitable products for inclusion in the Atl as , if ment of marine observing systems, requested to do so . including data buoys (jointly with CIMO). Elections Scientific lectures The Commission elected Mr J. Guddal (Norway) A full day of the session was devoted to a set of as president and Mr S. Ragoonaden (Mauritius) scientific lectures on the general theme of marine as vice-president. pollution . The session thanked all the lecturers, requested that the full texts should be published Next session by WMO in a single volume and requested the The Commission was pleased to note the tenta­ Advisory Working Group to prepare a similar set tive offer from Iceland to host the thirteenth of lecture s, on a single theme, for CMM-XIII. session in Reykjavik in the year 2001. o

Anniversary THE 75TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE NATIONAL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF UKRAINE AND THE 225TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE FIRST INSTRUMENTAL METEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS IN UKRAINE

By Viacheslav N. LIPINSKY*

On 19 November 1996, the Hydrometeorologi­ was also the 225th year since the first instru­ ca l Service of Ukraine marked its 75th year. lt mental observations were made in Kiev in 1771. The first meteorological station was 1 Chairman, State Committee for Hydrometeorology, established in Lugansk, in the east of the coun­ Ukraine try and, by the end of the 19th century, the

265 Pridnieprovskaya network of some 700 meteo­ rological stations had been formed . By decree of the Council of People's Comissars of Ukraine on 19 November 1921, a single State Meteorological Service, Ukrmet, was formed and , in De cember 1929, the Hydrometeorological Committee wa s formed, which included all the meteorological and hydro­ logica l services of Ukraine. From the ve ry beginning, the Meteorologi­ cal, and, subsequently, the Hydrometeorologi­ cal, Service has been actively concerned with hydrometeorological services to agriculture, transport, power engineering and other branches of the economy. During the Second World War, the Service was placed under the management of the Armed Forces. Its mobile units carried out mis­ sions to provide the war operations with the necessary hydrometeorological information and forecasts. After successful fulfilment of the mili­ tary command's tasks , many hydrometeorolo­ gists received military decorations. During th e post-War period, the network of hydrometeorological stations and posts was renovated in a short space of time and the Ser­ vice received a fresh impetus in its develop­ Kiev, Ukrain e, 19 November 1996- Ceremony at ment. As of the end of the 1960s, new types of Goskomgidromet to celebrate the Hydrometeorological Service's 75 th an ni versary basic observations were initiated, such as of environmenta l, including radioactive, pollution over 1 000 stations for meteorological, aeronau­ and the Service took an active part in the clear­ tical, aerological, hydrological, marine, agrome­ ing up operations after the accident at the Cher­ teorological, marsh water-balance, mud-flow, nobyl nuclear power plant. avalanche and lake observations . Some 5 500 After Ukraine's return to independent State­ people work within the Service . hood in 1991 , the Ukrainian State Committee Information from 42 hydrometeorological for Hydrometeorology (Goskomgidromet) was and nine aerological stations and a significa nt created . Goskomgidromet carrie s out State pol­ amount of other types of information are trans­ icy in the field of meteorological, hydrological mitted to WMO's GTS and GDPS . and radioactive/ ecological observations and Goskomgidromet's system incorporates the provides the public, media and State bodies Ukrainian Hydrometeorologica l Research Insti­ and administrations at all levels, as well as the tute with its marine scientific information depart­ Armed Force s, with regular information on the ment in Sebastopol, experimental research divi­ state of the environment. lt issues short- and sion in Dniepropetrovsk, experimental field long-range meteorological, agrometeorological, bases in the Kiev and Dniepropetrovsk oblasts, river and sea and air pollution forecasts, as well and a Chernobyl department. A geophysical as warnings of impending dangerous hydrome­ research observatory was recently created at teorological phenomena, meteorological ser­ Karadag. lt is a basic scientific/operational vices to civi l aviation and hydrometeorological organization in the fie ld of ozonometry, ultra­ services to shipping and fisheries. lt also pro­ violet measurement and radar meteorology. vides scientific and methodological guidance Goskomgidromet is also active at the inter­ for weather modification work. national level. Ukraine has been a Member of Goskomgidromet's State observing system WMO since 1948. Besides being Permanent consists of ob la st centres for hydrometeorology, Repre sentative of Ukraine with WMO, the Chair­ hydrometeorological observatories, bureaux and man of Goskomgidromet is a member of the

266 Interstate Council on Hydrometeorology, and presented in 1895 to the Odessa Hydrometeo­ chairs the Ukrainian National Committee for the rological Observatory for its proceedings and implementation of UNESCO's International other publications presented at the AII-Ru ssian Hydrological Programme and WMO's Opera­ Exh ibition in 1895. tional Hydrology Programme. Goskomgidromet also prepared a book The Service's major current objectives are entitled History of the Hydrometeorological Ser­ to re-equip the observing system, taking advan­ vice of Ukraine on the occasion of the 75th tage of new techniques and technologies, and anniversary and both it and the 225th anniver­ to improve the formats and types of hydromete­ sary of the beginning of instrumental meteoro­ orological services to users. Fulfilment of those logical observations in Ukraine were widely cov­ goals should be facilitated by the scientific and ered in the media. An interview with the technical development programme which Gos­ Chairman of Goskomgidromet was broadcast komgidromet has planned together with other on Ukraine's first TV and radio channels, and ministries and administrations, and by increased the celebration was widely reported in the pres s. international collaboration in the field of hydrom­ The anniversary was covered on Ukraine's TV eteorology. Specifically, by government decree, channels on 19, 20 and 21 November 1996 a State programme to re-equip the hydrometeo­ with special broadcasts in which representative s rological observing system and baseline envi­ of the Service took part. A press release con­ ronmental pollution observing system , both sci­ taining significant facts and dates was prepared entifically and technically, has been established, by the Goskomgidromet Press Office and dis­ a development concept for the national Hydro­ tributed among national information agencies, meteorological Service has been formulated and radio and TV editorial offices and the ministries several important documents are being prepared, and administrations concerned. including a National Climate Programme and a The anniversary celebrations enabled the national law on hydrometeorological activities. State authorities and the public to become bet­ The celebration of the Service's 75th anni­ ter acquainted with the Service's achievements versary on 19 November 1996 included a ce re­ to date and current challenges. o mony in Goskomgidromet which was attended by the officials of the Cabinet of Ministers, direc­ tors of other ministries and administrations, IAHS(ICSI)IUNEP/UNESCO publication representatives of national Hydrometeorological announcement Services of neighbouring States, retired and Glacier Mass Balance Bulletin No. 4 long-serving staff members of the Service and (1994-1995) representatives of the media. Compiled by the World Glacier Monitoring Pavel Lazarenko, Prime Minister of Ukraine, Service (WGMS) as a contribution to the congratulated the staff of Goskomgidromet on Global Environment Monitoring System the occasion of the anniversary, and congratula­ and the International Hydrological tions were received from Prof. G. 0. P. Obasi, Programme Secretary-General of WMO. Viacheslav Lipinsky, Contains results from 60 glaciers in 16 Chairman of Goskomgidromet and Permanent countries (Austria, Bolivia, Canada, China, Representative of Ukraine with WMO, also gave France, Iceland, Italy, Kazakstan, Kenya, a presentation at the celebration . Kyrgyz Republic, Norway, the Russian Goskomgidromet staff prepared an exhibi­ Federation, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland tion with information stands displaying reports and the USA). and photograph s illu strating the main events in the Service's history, including many unique 0 For copies and information, contact photographs, which were kindly provided from Prof Dr. W. Haeberli, Director, WGMS, personal collections. Meteorological instruments Department of Geography, University were also displayed, as were some rare old of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, books published in the 19th century and taken CH-8057 Zurich, Switzerland. from the archives of the Service's scientific and Tel.: +41-(0)1-257-51-20121. technical library, such as the Meteorological Fax: +41-(0)1-362-52-27. Atlas of the World (published in 1899), hydro­ E-mail: [email protected] meteorological calendars, the honorary diploma

267 WMO programme news

bers of the Panel's Technical Support Unit (TSU) TROPICAL CYCLONE and the Typhoon Committee Secretariat (TCS). PROGRAMME The opening session was addressed by representatives of the host Government and the two spo nsoring organizati ons. In his open in g WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones address, Prof . G. 0. P. Obasi, Secretary-General and the ESCAP jWMO Typhoon Committee of WMO, thanked the Government of Th ail and The Second Joint Session of the WMO/ESCAP and expre ssed hi s appreciation to the Th ai Panel on Tropical Cyclones and the ESCAP/WMO Meteorological Department, particularly to the Typhoon Committee was held at Phuket, Thailand, Director-General, Mr Smith Tumsaroch, for the from 20 to 28 February 199 7. lt was attended excellent arrangements . Citing the unusual occur­ by 68 representatives of six Members of the rence of a tropical storm (Greg) hitting the Panel on Tropical Cyclones, i.e. Bangladesh, north-we st coast of Sabah State, Malaysia, on India, Oman (new Member), Pakistan, Sri Lanka 27 December 1996, he sa id that the increasing and Thailand and 12 Members of the Typhoon incidence of tropical cyclones in some areas had Committee, i.e . Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, led to que stions about the possible impacts of Japan, Lao People's Democratic Republi c, Macao, climate change and significant human and eco­ Malaysia, the Philippine s, the Republic of Korea , nom ic consequences. While global warming was Singapore (new Member), Thailand and Viet Nam. expected to have major imp act~ in terms of sea­ Twe lve observers also participated, namely rep­ level rise (e .g. regional water resources and local re sentatives of Brunei Darussalam, Indone sia, crop production), there was , as yet, no definitive Papua New Guinea and the USA, as we ll as the evidence that there would be changes in th e president of RA 11 (Asia), ICAO and CAS and mem- occurrence or intensity of tropical cyclo ne s. He

Phuke1, Th ailand, February 1997- Second Joint Session of the WMO/ESCA P Panel on Tropical Cyclones and th e ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Commit­ tee; (inseT): Prof. G.O.P. Obasi, Secretary-General, WMO, and Mr Smith Tumsaroch, Director-General, Thai Meteorological Department

268 stressed the need for a study to be carried out on this subject. Recognizing the importance and mutual ben­ efits of interregional cooperation and coordina­ tion, the session considered that special atten­ tion should be given to the mutually beneficial training activities and exchange of information between the TSU and the TCS . To this end, the session agreed that a regional workshop on the use of Doppler radars for the observation of tropical cyclones should be organized by the TCS Ba11 gkok, Thaila11 d, 17 F eb m(//y / 997- Participants in and TSU in cooperation with WMO, at Hua Hin , the ceremony to transfer the Technical Support Unit Thailand, tentatively from 14 to 17 April 1998, In welcoming the participants, Mr Tumsaroch prior to the Fourth session of the WMO/ ICSU spoke of making a modest beginning by assign­ International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones ing office space, staff and basic facilities and (Haikou , Hainan Province, China, tentatively from stressed his desire that the TSU should vigor­ 21 to 30 April 1998). ously support the Panel's programme. Mr Rah­ The session urged WMO , CAS and ICSU to man gave an overview of the Panel's history and issue a formal statement on climate change and detailed the major activities of the TSU during tropical cyclones , which would be used by Tropi­ the period 1986-1996, when it was in Dhaka. cal Cyclone Programme regional bodies to Mr Abe recalled the terms of reference assigned respond to questions regarding the impact of the TSU by the Panel and Mr Ertuna reaffirmed tropical cyclones as related to climate change. ESCAP's commitment to continue providing sub­ stantive support. Ceremonial hand-over of the Technical The celebration closed with an expression Support Unit of the WMOjESCAP Panel on of good wishes for the future success of the Tropical Cyclones for the Bay of Bengal Panel, the guests then being invited to visit the and the Arabian Sea new TSU facilities. A press release on the transfer By Peter ROG ERS was issued in both English and Thai the same day. lt could almost be described as a coming-of-age ceremony. The Panel's Technical Support Unit (TSU), which first saw the light of day in New CLIMATE INFORMATION AND Delhi , India, in 1978, marked its entry into its PREDICTION SERVICES 20th year by tran sferring its operation s from Dhaka in Bangladesh to Bangkok in Thailand. The Training activities move follows the Panel's decision to rotate its small secretariat from time to time. Thus, Bangkok Two CLIPS training seminars were held in Febru­ became its fourth location after spells in New ary and March 1997. Such seminars are designed Delhi, Cololmbo (Sir Lanka) and Dhaka. to develop the capacity of NMHSs to provide the The new location is in excellent accommo­ nucleus for initiating country-specific demonstra­ dation at the headquarters of the Thai Meteoro­ tion projects, facilitating links with the CLIPS logical Department (TMD). On 17 February international network, serving as a resource for 1997, the transfer was marked by a brief cere­ developing national climate information policies, mony at which Mr M. Sazedur Rahman, Direc­ promoting feedback to the research community tor, Bangladesh Meteorological Department, and raising awareness of associated benefits. represented the former Coordinator in a sym­ The first seminar, in English, took place in bolic handing over of TSU functions and Lusaka, Zambia, during the second week (24-28 respon sibilities to the new Coordinator, Mr February 1997) of the SADC Seminar on Climate Smith Tumsaroch, Director-General , TMD . Applications and Services Focused on CLICOM/ Amongst those present were Mr K. Abe, Chief, CLIPS activities . The other, for French-speaking WMO Tropical Cyclone Programme Division and countries, was conducted at ACMAD in Niamey, Mr E. Ertuna, Chief, ESCAP Water Resources Niger, during the second week (17-21 March 1997) Section. Focal points from the TMD, and the of the RA I Seminar on Climate Applications and Ser­ TSU Adviser, Mr Peter Rogers, also attended. vices Focusing on CLICOM and CLIPS. Most of the 269 participants stayed on to gain practical experi­ projects in the areas of agro-ecological zoning, ence in applying CLIPS training tools. A sequel to farming strategies, pest control, crop protection this seminar will take place later this year for and hydroelectric power plant management. other French-speaking countries in Region I. The seminars included lectures on climate­ Collaborative activities prediction methods and applications of climate The CLIPS Project Office participated in two work­ information for the benefit of the user comm u­ shops as part of activities in collaboration with the nity; visits to user sites; presentations by partic­ International Research Institute (IRI). This type of ipants of national CLIPS activities; plenary dis­ activity is intended to enhance dialogue between cussion sessions designed to provide guidance climate researchers, researchers in other sec­ in the planning of pilot/demonstration projects; tors, such as agriculture, water management, and working group discussions to underline the human health and disaster preparedness, and social-economic benefits of climate information. NMHSs worldwide. The ultimate objective is to The presentations on national CLIPS-related ensure that NMHSs are integrated in the design, activities highlighted a broad spectrum of socio­ production, and dissemination of the full suite of economic sectors that cou ld benefit from applica­ climate information services and are seen as the tion of the knowledge of contemporary and future pre-eminent voice of operational scientific moni­ climate conditions. These included: agriculture, toring and projection within their countries. water resources, energy, building and construc­ In the Workshop on Climate Variability, Agri­ tion, fisheries, tourism, and health. Many coun­ cultural Productivity and Food Security, held in tries already have climate advisory services that February in Bogor, Indonesia, the WMO represen­ issue regular special bulletins such as 10-day and tative presented an overview of the CLIPS Project monthly bulletins during the rainy season, as well and participated in the defining of a major three-to­ as seasonal forecasts. Based on recent advances five year study to evaluate and develop the capa­ in climate monitoring, synthe sis and prediction, bility of predicting the impact of climate variability the potential of national Meteorological and Hydro­ on crop production, along a network of sites logical Services (NMHSs) to provide enhanced across monsoon Asia from India, through north­ CLIPS services are encouraging . The capacity to east Thailand to Australia. exploit their full potential is constrained, however, WMO also participated in an IRI-sponsored by problems in the areas of communications and planning meeting on the Application of Climate facilitie s, expertise and effective information dis­ Forecasts in the Asia-Pacific Region, in Denpasar, semination to the end-user. Indonesia. The workshop designed a series of A topic that featured prominently during ple­ preparatory studies to demonstrate the potential nary discussions was the need to ensure the of climate forecast information in climate-sensitive integrity and credibility of the climate advisorie s sectors and to develop initial methodologies. The issued to users by NMHSs via the media. Opin­ application of climate forecasts to practical prob­ ions expressed in this regard included the need lems of decision-making requires an integrated for media producers/ announcers to be aware of approach, with unprecedented levels of interaction the need to preserve the integrity of the meteoro­ among scientists who study the climate, scientists logical content in the press releases and for who generate climate forecasts, and users. CLIPS meteorologists to be familiar with public commu­ pilot projects in the Philippines and Fiji were incor­ nication issue s. Translation of common meteoro­ porated into the set of demonstration projects pro­ logical jargon into local languages and the estatr posed by the meeting's working groups. lishment of provincial NMHS units to bring CLIPS services closer to the users were needs voiced by the group. The final day in each training sem~ WORLD CLIMATE DATA AND nar was devoted to discussion and presentation MONITORING PROGRAMME of recommendations by the participants. During the SADC training seminar in Zambia, participants and lecturers visited two important CLICOM project climate service user sites to le arn about ongo­ Training seminars in Africa ing and potential practical applications of CLIPS services . The two visits indicated distinct oppor­ A CLICOM/CLIPS seminar was held in Lusaka , tunities for developing CLIPS demonstration Zambia, from 17 to 28 February 1997 and was

270 attended by the representatives from 11 South­ cedures, ageing equipment, inefficient archiving ern African Development Community (SADC) and insufficient knowledge of CLICOM . countries. Another was held at the African Cen­ The level of knowledge and experience of tre of Meteorological Application s for Develop­ participants varied greatly, which presented a ment (ACMAD) in Niamey, Niger, from 10 to 21 challenge to the principal instructor, Mr Azzedine March and was attended by participants from Saci from Algeria . Mr Saci designed and distri­ 14 French-speaking countries in Africa . (See buted a questionnaire to enable him to appreci­ also section on Climate Information and Predic­ ate better the circumstances in which each of tion Services.) the participants was working and provided an Following participants' presentations at appropriate mixture of lectures and practical Lusaka on the status of CLICOM implementation exercises. Mr lsaac Ru sangiza (ACMAD) and Mr in their country, it became evident that, in most Abdoulkarim Traore (Niger) provided valuable cases, good progress was being made in using assistance. Mr Peter Scholefield , the WMO repre­ CLICOM for the provision of climatological ser­ sentative, presented an overview of the CLICOM vices. The Mauritius Meteorological Depart­ project and participated in discussion sessions. ment, for example, ha s more than 100 rainfall One of the recommendations from the seminar stations in its CLICOM system with over 80 was an innovative proposal to consider the acqui­ years of data and 20 climatologica l stations sition of writeable CD-ROM equipment at ACMAD with over 30 years of daily and synoptic data . which CLICOM spec ialists could use to create CD Two invited experts , Mr Sepiso Mwangala ROMs conta ining national climate databases. (Zambia) and Mrs Lea Leskinen (Finland), provided participants with lectures and practical exercises Cooperation in the development of on the advanced use of CLICOM for climate data advanced climate database management management. The WMO representative, Mr Ana­ systems toly Laptev, gave a presentation on recent devel­ A number of WMO Member countries, espe­ opments in the implementation of the WMO CLI­ cially tho se with economies in transition, are COM project. An experience from Swaziland was interested in utilizing a climate database man­ shared on how to run CLICOM from Windows 3.1, agement system which is more advanced and Windows for Workgroups 3.11 and Windows 95. powerful than CLICOM . Representative s of Bul­ One important recommendation was to upgrade garia, the Czech Republic, Croatia, France, Hun­ the specification for CLICOM file servers to a gary and Slovakia met in Budapest, Hungary, on higher-performance PC based, for example, on a 17 December 1996 in order to seek a possible Pentium 200 MHz processor. forum for cooperation in the development of cli­ At the ACMAD seminar, problems in CLICOM mate database management systems. Presen­ implementation were revealed during participants' tations by participants revealed that NMSs had presentations and in questionnaires completed different hardware and software and that concerning the status of CLICOM implementation. database development was at different stages . lt became apparent that CLICOM was operational Cooperation in the field of geographic inform a­ in only five of the countries represented while two tion systems (GIS) could be easier, however, did not yet have CLICOM. Some of the problems sin ce the countries using them have the same mentioned included departure of trained staff; systems and are sti ll in the early stages of equipment breakdown, improper installation pro- implementation . Participants tried to find areas of common interest, where research and programming work cou ld be jointly carried out. They under­ lined the importance of cooperation to find solu­ tions for common problems. lt was decided to publish the material presented. Project propos­ als will be developed in three field s concerning database safety, data quality control and GIS systems. The participants found the meeting useful and decided to organize regular meet­ Lusaka, Zambia, Febmary 1997- Participants in th e ings to inform each other about developments CLICOM/CLIPS training seminar and problems.

271 Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE)), and to WORLD CLIMATE RESEARCH assess the appropriate mix of observations to PROGRAMME provide the range of climate variables required. CLIVAR will use existing bodies to the extent possible for the management of observing sys­ WMO/IOCjiCSU Joint Scientific Commit­ tems and data and, in this re spect, will cooper­ tee for the World Climate Research Pro­ ate closely with th e World Weather Watch, the gramme-eighteenth session Global Climate Observing System and the Glo­ The eighteenth annual session of the WMO/IOC/ bal Ocean Observing System. Data manage­ ICSU Joint Scientific Committee for the World ment in CLIVAR will also build on the founda­ Climate Research Programme (WCRP) was held tions laid by TOGA and WOCE and is aiming to in Toronto, Canada, from 17 to 21 March 1997. establish effective interfaces with the comp lex The JSC reviewed a number of overall WCRP and rapidly developing electronic web of data issues, as we ll as the continuing progress in the systems and in stitutions. Th e monsoon focus of implementation of WCRP component projects. CLIVAR , of major importance to many tropical and sub-tropica l co untries, will need a range of WCRP Conference spec ific modelling and observational and pro­ The JSC was informed of the status of preparation cess studie s in monsoon regions, in particular for the Conference on the World Climate Research in the Indian Ocean. Programme: Achievements, Benefits and Chal­ The JSC reviewed the draft outline of the lenges that would be held in Geneva, 26-28 initial CLIVAR implementation plan . it was sug­ August 1997. The JSC underlined the importance gested that priority should be given to two or of providing adequate possibilities for input from, three overriding themes, in particular the role of and interaction with, Conference participants and the ocean in the variability of coup led ocean­ modifications were made to the provisional pro­ atmosphere system on time-scales up to a cen­ gramme to increase the available discussion time. tury, and the monsoon focus of CLIVAR. The JSC considered the contents of the Confer­ Organization of research into the ence statement wh ich drew attention to the achievements of the WCRP in improving under­ cryosphere and climate standing of climate change and variability and the Up to now, the main organized activity in the strong support given by the WCRP to a wide var~ WCRP in polar regions had been the Arctic Cli­ ety of climate-related activities. The statement mate System Study, wh ich focused on Arctic would also outline WCRP future research directions sea-ice and ocean interaction. A meeting of and priorities, data issues, the institutional frame­ experts on cryosphere and clim ate was orga­ work (including, particularly, the role of the WCRP in nized by the WCRP in February 199 7, includ­ the Climate Agenda) and resource requirements . ing representatives of virtually all bodies and The statement would be developed , taking into programmes having an interest in climate­ account, to the extent .possibl e, comments from related polar research. Th e meeting aimed to participants, working groups at the Conference , id entify the principal scientifi c questions to be and repl ie s to a "participants' questionnaire". resolved, the critical gaps in observational and modelling programmes and to consider the Development of the WCRP Climate Vari­ requirement and possibilities for an overall ability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Study internationally coordinated research programme CLIVAR is now the main focus in the WCRP for on cryosphere and climate. Based on this, a studies of cl imate variability, extending effective proposal for the overall organization/integration predictions of climate variations, and refining of studies of climatically important cryospheric estimates of anthropogenic climate change. An aspects wi ll be prepared for consideration at important current activity of CLIVAR is the pre­ the JSC in March 1998. it would be essential, paration of an initial implementation plan. The however, to avoid disrupting existing successful genera l strategy being followed is to consider activities. The JSC endorsed this approach . the re levance and effectiveness of existing Climate modelling in the WCRP observing systems (e.g. those implemented as part of the earlier WCRP Tropical Ocean and The JSC recognized the importance of being Global Atmosphere (TOGA) study and the World directly informed and advised of the progress

272 in developing coupled ocean/atmosphere tems (including operational meteorological models, the type of experiments carried out systems) . This could compromise certain and the results being obtained . The JSC there­ basic data collection and elements of the fore decided to constitute, jointly with CLIVAR, infrastructure on which so much environmental a Working Group on Coupled Modelling, with monitoring and research depended. The JSC the principal role of fostering the development stressed the need for adequate support for of coupled models to study climate variations the maintenance of environmental observing on time-scales from several years to a century systems and that the free and unrestricted or more and to provide the increasingly confi­ exchange of climate-related data was a prereq­ dent projections of climate change resulting uisite for the success of global climate from natural and anthropogenic causes that research. lt was pointed out that research are needed. The successful long-standing using operational data often resulted in the JSC/CAS Working Group on Numerical Experi­ development of new applications with major mentation will also continue to report to the socio-economic and practical benefits (e.g. JSC (on the development of atmospheric mod­ the importance of tropical atmospheric and els for climate simulation and numerical oceanic data as a basis for the far-reaching weather prediction) . These two groups wi ll seasonal and interannual predictions of tropi­ form the core of a more integrated approach cal Pacific Ocean surface temperature to climate modelling in the WCRP. The inten­ changes and associated global atmospheric tion is to establish a clear interface with IPCC circulation anoma lie s). Working Group I to coordinate the production of projections of climate change from different Developments of regional contributions to groups under specified conditions . A strong global change research link wi ll also be provided to the CAS World The WCRP is encouraging the development of Weather Research Programme to strengthen regional contributions to global change the feedback from WCRP research into opera­ research both directly and through the Global tion prediction. Change System for Analysis, Research and Training (START, jointly sponsored by WCRP, Data requirements for climate monitoring IGBP and the International Human Dimensions and research of Global Environmenta l Change Programme On several occasions during the JSC session, (IHDP)). WCRP has instigated, together with concern was expressed at reductions in exist­ IGBP, IHDP and START, an end-to-end project on ing atmospheric and oceanic ob serving sys- climate variability, agricultural productivity and

Toronto, Canada, March 1997- Participants in the eighteenth an nual session of the WMO/IOC/ICSU Joint Scienti fic Committee for the World Climate Research Programme

273 food security in the Asian monsoon region . A joint workshop in Indone sia, in February 1997, recommended that this project should be developed by START with the particular objec­ tive of tailoring climate variability predictions for improvement of management and decision­ making relevant to crop production. The JSC endorsed this recommendation, and also the organization of a joint WCRP/ START/ Scientific Committee on Water Rese arch workshop in Benin in July 1997 on climate variability, water resources and agricultural productivity in sub­ Saharan Africa. Participams in the International Work shop on Very Short­ and Short -range Weather Predicti on (Boul der, Colorado, USA, 2 1 October -8 November 1996) tee with Dr Greg Byrd (COMET) as chairman, ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH AND consisted of a three-week course with tutorial ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME sessions and laboratory exercises and the use of computer terminal s. The first two weeks were Weather Prediction Research designed to increase participants' knowledge of WMO/COMET International Workshop on mesoscale meteorology and new observing sys­ Very Short- and Short-range Weather tems and to enhance their capabilities in fore­ Prediction casting, with primary emphasis on convective events and forecasting severe weather. The third The International Workshop on Very Short- and week concentrated on tropical cyclone forecast­ Short-range Weather Prediction was held at the ing. COMET provided excellent training facilities, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research such as videoconferencing technology, use of (UCAR), Boulder, Colorado, USA, from 21 Octo­ the World Wide Web , computer-aided learning ber to 8 November 1996. Thi s Workshop was techniques, and electronic performance support organized jointly by WMO and the Cooperative systems. Program for Operational Meteorology, Educa­ Some 17 participants attended the Work­ tion and Training (COMET) at UCAR. The main shop and 16 experts were invited to deliver lec­ objectives of the Workshop were: tures and supervise laboratory exercises. • Enhancement of participants' skill s in fore­ casting the evolution of tropical and extra­ Commission for Atmospheric Sciences tropical cyclones, their mesoscale structure The CAS Working Group on Very Short- and Short­ and attendant mesoscale precipitation system; range Weather Prediction Research, chaired by Mr R. Carbone (USA), met in Toulouse, France, • Increase of participants' understanding of from 18 to 21 November 1996. Within the con­ mesoscale phenomena and processes, pro­ te xt of the new focus given to this programme viding a knowledge base for developing by the World Weather Research Programme techniques for forecasting and nowcasting (WWRP) initiative, this meeting served as the mesoscale weather phenomena; First Meeting of the Scientific Steering Commit­ • Enhancement of participants' ability to use tee for WWRP. Dr D. Gauntlett, president of CAS, integrated mesoscale datasets to make and experts representing lAMAS, other CAS work­ very short- and short-range prediction of ing groups and the FASTEX and COMPARE pro­ significant weather phenomena ; jects also attended. The primary purposes of the meeting were • Improvement of participants' skill s in fore­ to delineate further and codify the WWRP initia­ casting the initiation, development and evo­ tive and to define and initiate activities associ­ lution of thunderstorm s, convective weather ated with some of its early projects. Discussion systems and attendant severe weather. concentrated on fostering research activities in The Workshop programme, which was pre­ order to develop improved and cost-effective pared by the Internationa l Programme Commit- techniques for forecasting high-impact weather

274 events and to promote their application among algorithms and operations of multi-level LAMs WMO Members. High-impact weather is defined using computer terminals . as weather that affects the quality of life, is The Workshop programme was prepared economically disruptive or life threatening ; it is by the Steering Committee for CAS Project LAM1 a major concern within the context of the Inter­ under the chairmanship of Prof. T. N. Krishna­ national Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction. murti. The International Centre for Theoretical The Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP) Physics provided excellent training facilities and was recognized as being well within the overall arrangements for all. scope of the WWRP and its orientation was endorsed. One of the major aims of MAP is to improve understanding of orographically influ­ GLOBAL ATMOSPHERE WATCH enced intense precipitation . The severe local flooding from such precipitation has been respon­ sible for loss of life and significant economic WMO GAW World Calibration Centre for costs in Alpine areas and the project has strong Surface Ozone support in affected European countries. The The overall role of the Global Atmosphere Watch programme has been assessed as having an (GAW) is to supply basic information of known excellent scientific and technical base and there quality concerning the atmospheric environment is potential for broader international applicability that transcends specific issues. Measurements of the outcome . obtained must be of known quality and of value for making environmental policy decisions. Mech­ Tropical Meteorology Research anisms or systems of activities for producing Third ICTP/WMO International Workshop and reporting measurements are therefore being on Tropical LAM established to ensure an effective GAW data qual­ The Third ICTP /WMO International Workshop on ity assurance programme . Calibration centres are Tropical Limited Area Modelling (LAM) was held one of the mechanisms being introduced. with great success in Trieste, Italy, from 21 Octo­ The WMO GAW World Calibration Centre for ber to 1 November 1996. In total , 36 participants Surface Ozone was established at the Air Pollu­ from all six WMO regional associations attended tion and Environmental Technology Section of the the Workshop, of whom 17 presented papers on Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Testing their national activities on tropical LAM , in partic­ and Research ((EMPA), Dubendorf, Switzerland). ular the numerical prediction of tropical cyclones lt began activities on 1 January 1996 and will in national Meteorological Services. Seventeen audit and survey the quality and performance of invited speakers and laboratory instructors deliv­ surface ozone measurements at the GAW net­ ered lectures on various topics at the Workshop work sites, initially in Europe and Africa. and supervised the laboratory exercises. The specific tasks of the Centre are to main­ Following the first (Trieste, Italy, 1990) and tain the Standard Reference Photometer No. 15 second (Nairobi, Kenya, 1993) in the series, the designed and distributed by the National Institute main objective of this Workshop was to provide of Standards and Technology (NIST), Gaithersburg, a forum for tropical weather prediction experts as a primary calibration standard for surface to review recent advances in LAM and its appli­ ozone instruments as well as a transfer standard cations in tropical regions. The Workshop focused instrument traceable to the NIST UV, the "world on familiarizing the participants with the use of reference of surface ozone" to guarantee trace­ ability. lt will also develop relevant quality-control procedures in cooperation with the Quality Assur­ ance Science/Activity Centres; perform regular system and performance audits at the GAW sites, using the transfer standard; organize and perform instrument intercalibrations of surface ozone; instruct and train operators in measurement techniques; and assist national network authori­ ties in establishing new stations or instruments. Participants in The Third ICTP/WMO Internati onal Work­ shop on Tropical Limited Area Modelling (Tri este, Ital y, The establishment of this Centre is essential 2 1 October- ! November 1996) because of the central role which ozone plays in

275 turers included Or Ralph Petersen , US National Weather Service, SAWB staff members and Mr N. T. Diallo, Scientific Officer, WMO World Weather Watch Department. The purpose of the seminar was to inform participants from SADC countries how NWP products could be applied to aviation forecast­ ing and to describe the means now available to deliver aviation meteorological service to users. In all, 19 topics were presented, including: an overview on numerical model prediction and evolution; data assimilation techniques; dynami­ cal and numerical parts of numerical models; major operational forecasting systems; NWP WMO GAW World Calibration Centre for Surface Ozone (from left to right ): Peter Ho fer (Head of Section), post-processing statistical and diagnostic tech­ Brigitte Buchman (Project Manager) and A lex Herzog niques; easterly waves; effects of orography on (Project Engineer). local and synoptic scale circulations; and the prediction of movement and intensity of south­ most of the key physical, chemica l and radiative west Indian Ocean tropical cyclones. In addition, processes in the troposphere and the importance case-studies were conducted on pre-storm envi­ placed on obtaining reliable scientifically sound ronment and heavy rain events in South Africa, data . lt is one of several contributions to GAW using isentropic coordinates. A demonstration which Switzerland, through the Swiss Meteoro­ was given of the display and manipulation capa­ logical In stitute is making. Another sim ilar contr~ bilities of the US Personal Computer Gridded bution is the WMO World Calibration Centre for Interactive Di splay and Diagnostic System Carbon Monoxide, which is also being established (PCGRIDDS). Hands-on training on this software at EMPA and is expected to become operational was carried out using South African model out­ in October 1997. put on a quasi-real-time basis to process , dis­ play and compute relevant meteorological parameters , which enabled the model output to AERONAUTICAL METEOROLOGY show additional meteorological features . Partici­ pants were impressed by the performance of PCGRIDDS in identifying specific mesoscale phe­ Numerical weather prediction applications nomena having a great impact on local and for aeronautical meteorology regional weather, as well as the new opportuni­ A South African Weather Bureau (SAWB);WMO ties it offered to operational forecasters. Case­ Seminar on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) studies showed that, when used in conjunction Applications for Aeronautical Meteorology was with NWP model outputs, NWP post-processed organized in Pretoria, South Africa, from 18 to products generated by PCGRIDDS greatly 22 November 1996. lt was opened by Or G. C. improved the quality of fore casts. Participants Shulze, Chief Director, SAWB, and attended by also attended one of the daily briefings pre­ 26 participants from 11 countries of the South­ sented by duty forecasters at the SAWB's Cen­ ern African Development Community (SADC). Lee- tral Forecasting Office . Thi s provided them with an excellent opportunity of testing the theoreti­ cal knowledge they had acquired at the seminar. In view of the progress achieved and fore­ see n in the global implementation of the World Area Forecast System (WAFS), discussions cen­ tred on the new opportunities offered that would require extra emphasis to improve meteorologi­ cal service to aviation, particularly the need for users' continued feedback on the quality and Pretoria, Sowh Africa, November 1996 - Participants in the Seminar on Nu meri cal Weather Prediction timeliness of products and data generated by Applications for Aeronautical Meteorology the two World Area Forecast Centres .

276 Participants were of the opinion that the lineas Argentinas aircraft operating out of Buenos seminar was well conducted and informative, Aires because of the potential for providing thanks to the excellent arrangements provided information over vast data-sparse areas in the by Mr Mike Edwards, Deputy Director for Aviation Southern Atlantic and Pacific Oceans . and Regional Forecasts and his staff, and the Negotiations with Mr J. L. Quiros of Aero­ quality of the lectures. The hope was expressed lineas Argentinas concluded with a contract for that a follow-up seminar would be convened in the installation of the unit, with no cost for car­ the near future to address other topics relevant riage . lt was also agreed that two further units to aviation forecasting. would be installed on other aircraft of the airline, under the same conditions, as and when prob­ Aerolineas Argentinas and ASDAR lems with the antennae were resolved. The con­ In November 1996, a mission was undertaken to tract was signed in Buenos Aires in December Buenos Aires, Argentina, by members of the 1996 by Comodoro Sonzini, Director-General, Board of the Operating Consortium of ASDAR National Meteorological Service of Argentina ; Or Participants (OCAP) to finalize arrangements with J. Tamayo, Deputy Director, National Meteoro­ Aerolineas Argentinas for the installation and logical Institute of Spain; and Mr M. Moran, Pres­ operation of a Spanish ASDAR unit on a Boeing ident, Aerolineas Argentinas. This is an exciting 74 7 aircraft. The mission consisted of the Span­ development; when all three units are flying , the ish member of the OCAP Programme Board, Mr southern hemisphere global upper-air database Cesar Belandia; the OCAP Project Technical Offi­ will increase dramatically. cer, Mr D. J. Painting; and the Chief of the WMO Aeroautical Meteorology Unit, Mr K. J. Macleod. Use of GDPS and WAFS products and Mr R. Wilkenning of Matra Marconi Space, which presentation of forecasts to the public manufactures ASDAR units, provided some tech­ A Regional Seminar on the Use of GDPS and nical advice and back-up . WAFS Products and Presentation of Forecasts A total of 23 ASDAR units have been pur­ to the Public was organized for French-speak­ chased under the OCAP Trust Fund. Of these, ing African countries jointly by WMO and the 19 have been installed and are operational on Agency for Air Safety in Africa and Madagascar aircraft of British Airways (10), KLM (3), Luft­ in Niamey, Niger, from 17 to 22 March 1997. hansa (1 ), SAUDIA (1), South African Airways (2) Lecturers included Messrs Nouhou Diallo and and Air Mauritius (2) . lt had been agreed by the Joel Martellet, WMO; Messrs Bernard lche, Jean OCAP Executive Board that efforts should be Coiffier and Jacques Besse, Meteo-France ; and made to install the Spanish unit on an Aero- Mr Hassane Cisse, ICAO Regional Office, Dakar, Senegal. The objective of the seminar was to famil­ iarize participants with meteorological numerical products generated by major operational fore­ cast centres to ensure their optimum applica­ tion , particularly to aviation. Topics relating to meteorological services for the public, including forecast presentation techniques through the media, were also discussed . Eight main topics were discussed in 32 presentations structured in 12 sessions . These included a brief review of numerical weather prediction; interpretation of model products; objective interpretation tech­ niques; methods of evaluation and verification of numerical products; operational and data-pro­ cessing aspects of the reception, interpretation and use of numerical products; application of numerical products to meet aviation needs; and Buenos Aires Argentina, 29 November 1996- (From right to left): Comodoro R. Sonzini, Dr J. Tamayo and Mr the status of implementation of the World Area M. Moran conclude an agreement to install and operate an Forecast System (WAFS), as well as highlights of ASDAR unit on an aircraft of Aero lfn eas Argentinas. the advantages offered by the WAFS in improv

277 Second International Conference on Climate and Water Espoo, Finland, 17-20 August 1998 Uncertainties of climate change-a hydrological perspective Hydrological interpretation of global change prediction-scale issues Niamey, Nige1; March 1997- Participants in the Regional Uses and limitations of climate scenarios for Seminar on the Use of GDPS and WAFS Products and Pre­ water resources research and management sentati on of Forecasts to the Public for French-speaking Afri can countries Impact of climate variability and change Climate change and extreme hydrological ing meteorological services provided to aviation. events In addition, three case-studies were conducted Climate change and aquatic ecosystems on meteorological conditions relevant to the Hydrological input to atmospheric models; three main geographical entities represented by participants, namely northern, Sahelian and equa­ Water balances of large river basins; torial Africa. A demonstration of the capabilities case-studies of the French workstation Synergie was conducted Beneficial impacts and losses for water resources during a visit organized to the African Centre of and water management as a result of climate Meteorological Applications for Development. change In all, 45 participants, representing 21 coun­ In addition, round-table discussions will tries, attended the seminar. They expressed the be organized on the following additional topics: wish that similar seminars be conducted for Research-water policy/policy options French-speaking countries in Africa in the near future . Suggestions made included extending Education and training, adaptation of tech­ the duration of the seminars, putting more nologies, technology transfer, innovations. emphasis on practical aspects, enabling partici­ The Conference is being organized by pants to make presentations, discussing prob­ the Helsinki University of Technology in lems encountered in the operational environ­ cooperation with WMO, UNESCO, IAHS ment and exchanging experiences in providing and a number of regional and national agen­ meteorological services to users. cies. It will be conducted in English. The reg­ istration fee will be US$ 300-350. 0 All correspondence should be addressed HYDROLOGY AND WATER to: Nea Helenius, Helsinki University of RESOURCES Technology, Water Resources Engineering, Tietotie 1, F1N-02510 ESPOO, Finland. IAHSjWMO cooperation Fax: +358 9 451 3827. E-mail: [email protected] WMO's closest links with the non-governmental Home page: http://ahti.hut.fi/wr/caw2 world in the field of hydrology have always been with the International Association of Hydrologica l Sciences (IAHS). These have involved joint pro­ The Workshop was held from 11 to 13 jects, not only in the science and operational November 1996 at the Institute in Wallingford, practice of hydrology itself, but also in the links some 80 km from London . Taking as its sub-title between climate and water. IAHS has been a "Charting the future", the meeting set out to strong supporter of WCP-Water since its incep­ bring together scientists working in current tion and , some years ago, the IAHS/WMO Work­ GEWEX continental scale experiments (CSEs), ing Group for GEWEX was established. When this among others, to share their expertise and Group met for its sixth session in July 1996, it experience, in particular as regards the mod­ accepted an offer from the United Kingdom In sti­ elling of near-surface hydrological processes. tute of Hydrology to organize a WMO/IAHS Work­ The 46 participants were drawn from both shop on Continental Scale Hydrological Models. the atmospheric and hydrological comm unities

278 and, while representatives of these two commu­ Training activities at the nities have met before, they have rarely, if ever, done so on such an equal basis and in relation AGRHYMET Centre to such specific joint activities. Forthcoming training activities at the Much of the time was devoted to presenta­ AGRHYMET Centre, Niamey, Niger, in 1997 tions on the CSEs and their hydrological compo­ and 1998 include: nents and group discussions on how the various Basic courses hydrological elements were handled in each case. Senior technician in hydrology, starting The most important outcome of the meeting was undoubtedly the opportunity for individual experts 6 October 1997 to make personal contact and exchange ideas as Senior technician in plant protection, to how to tackle similar problems. In order that a starting 5 January 1998 wider audience might benefit from this, the results Senior technician in agrometeorology, of the discussions are being written up and will be starting 5 January 1998 published as the workshop proceedings. Ongoing training courses The IAHS/WMO Working Group on GEWEX Geographic information system applied held its seventh session in association with the to problems concerning population Wallingford Workshop . lt was recommended that movement in the Sahel, 1-31 October a similar workshop be held in two to three years' 1997 time , focusing on a more limited set of topics so Workshop on the early detection and that each might be discussed in greater detail. control of pathogens, 13-24 October 1997 EDUCATION AND TRAINING Phytosanitary legislation and its application in CILSS countries, 3-22 November 1997 Recent education and training events Workshop on harmful vertebrates, Practical Course on Weather Forecasting 17 November-13 December 1997 WMO eo-sponsored a Practical Course on Weather Popularization of agricultural knowl­ Forecasting, which was organized by the Technical edge, 24 November-12 December 1997 Cooperation Council of the Philippines at the WMO RMTC in Manila from 3 to 27 February 1997. The 0 For further information, contact the objective of the course was to promote and Regional AGRHYMET Centre, BP strengthen self-reliance among developing coun­ 11011 Niamey, Niger. Tel.: (227) 73-31- tries in the area of weather forecasting. lt was 16/73-24-36173-21-81. Fax: (227) 73- attended by 10 international participants from six 24-35/73-22-37. Telex: 5448 N1 different countries and 15 local participants.

Forthcoming education and training events in the training of operational personnel. The More information is now available on the train­ programme will include formal lectures and lab­ ing events planned to be held during the sec­ oratory periods for practical sessions, as well ond half of 1997. as participants' contributions on national train­ ing practices. Regional Seminar for National Instructors from RA 11 and V Training course on teaching methods This seminar will be held in Manila, Philippines , This course will take place at the African School from 10 to 21 November 1997. Its aim is to of Meteorology and Civil Aviation, a WMO develop and promote new techniques for the RMTC , in Niamey, Niger, from 4 to 8 August training of meteorological personnel and to 1997. The objectives of the course will be to upgrade the knowledge of instructors in spe­ assist participants engaged as instructors at cific fields of meteorology. lt will be conducted training institutions to be competent in effective in Engli sh for approximately 25 participants, and modern teaching methods and techniques who will be drawn from Class I and Class 11 and to enhance their knowledge and skills in staff, especially those engaged as instructors teaching. lt will be conducted in French .

279 Training Seminar on Curriculum Development • National proposals for an amended, or an alternative , classification . This Seminar will take place from 1 to 5 Septem­ ber 1997 at the Meteorological Office College, Noting that the review of the WMO classifi­ Reading, United Kingdom. Its aim is to train instruc­ cation and curricula was an extremely complex tors and upgrade their knowledge in modern meth­ and sensiti ve issue, it was considered that the ods and in the steps to be taken to design a cur­ most satisfactory solution cou ld only be found riculum in the area of meteorology, as well as to with the assistance of a large majority of identify factors which necessitate changing a cur­ NMHSs. Accordingly, Members were strongly riculum . The seminar will be conducted in English. encouraged to provide their replies on time.

WMO training publications Group Training Course in Meteorology at the Japan Meteorological Agency Catalogue of the holdings of the WMO Training Library By Kiichi SASAKI A catalogue of the holdings of the WMO Training Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Library was recently issued as a WMO Technical A group training course in meteorology has Document (WMO/TD-No. 791) in the Blue Series been implemented every year since 1973 by of Education and Training Publications (ETR-1 3) the JMA under the sponsorship and coordina­ and distributed to WMO Members and RMTCs . tion of the Japan International Cooperation Its primary intention is to provide WMO Members, Agency, which implements Japan 's technical in particular developing countries, with informa­ cooperation programme. In its 14 years of tion to enable them to se lect materials for use in existence, 164 participants from 51 countries their training programmes. The catalogue wi ll be have completed the course. updated periodically. In 1996, from 15 Augu st to 20 December, Members which produce training materials eight meteorologists from the national Meteoro­ in meteorology, operational hydrology and related logical or Hydrological Services of seven coun­ fields are invited to provide the WMO Training tries (Botswana, Brazil, Ghana, Islamic Republic Library with sample material which could be of of Iran, Maldives, Saudi Arabia and Senegal) suc­ use for the training activitie s of other Members cessfully completed the course at JMA Head­ of the Organization . quarters and auxiliary bodies (Meteorological Research Institute, Meteorological Satellite Cen­ Questionnaire on review and updating of the tre and Meteorological College). WMO classification of personnel and curric­ The aim is to provide participants with gen­ ula for training eral and practical fundamental knowledge appli­ Following a formal request by Twelfth Congress cab le to current and future meteorological ser­ to review the WMO classification of meteorolog­ vices through lectures, on-the-job training and ical and hydrological personnel, together with study tours. lt is aimed at WMO Class I or 11 the related education and training curricu la, the meteorologists and covers the following areas: Secretariat designed a questionnaire in consul­ tation with members of the Executive Council Meteorological observations, including Panel of Experts on Education and Training, weather radar system (nine days); Directors of RMTCs, members of the Coordinat­ Satellite meteorology and satellite data ing Committee of the Standing Conference of application (13 days); Heads of Training In stitution s of National Meteo­ rological and Hydrological Services, and a num­ ber of individual trainers . The questionnaire was distributed to Members at the beginning of April 1997. lt contains four main sections: Cu rrent use made of WMO-No. 258; Toward s some guiding principles for the review of publication WMO-No . 258; Tokyo, Japan, 30 September / 996----Exercises in neph­ • A possible approach towards a revised analysis at the Meteorological Satellite Centre during th e WMO classification and curricula; 1996 JMA group training course in meteorology

280 • PC utilization for meteorological services activitie s. The next co urse wi ll be organized (nine days); from mid-August to mid-De cember 1997. • Climate monitoring and prediction (four days); • Forecasting techniques and NWP (16 days); INFORMATION AND PUBLIC • Aviation weath er services (four days); AFFAIRS • Research activities (five days); WMO eo-sponsors the 7th International • International activitie s (three days); Weather Festival • Study tours (nine days). Th e 7th International Weather Fe stiva l was held in the Parisian suburb of lssy-le s-Moulin eaux, The participants also took part in re levant France, from 21 to 25 February 1997. The fes­ extra-curriculum events provided by JMA during tival, which was organized by Fond Bleu Com­ the course , such as the CAS/ JSC Working munication and eo-sponsored for the th ird con­ Group on Numerical Experimentati on Interna­ secutive yea r by WMO, had participants from tional Workshop on NWP an d Data Assimilation over 49 countrie s, with more than 97 televi sion for Climate Monitoring (October 1996) (see channels competing for different prizes. New WMO Bulletin 46 (2), 167) and the seventh JMA entrants this year included TV presenters and Ekiden road relay (November 1996). Friendly broadcast meteorologists from Brazil, Cuba, relationships among participants and JMA staff Greece, Italy, Libya n Arab Jamahiriya, Palestine , members have been estab li shed through these the Ru ssian Federati on and Uruguay.

lssy-les-Mou/ineaux France, February 1997- (above): participants in the 7th Intern ati onal Weath er Festi val and (right ): presentati on o f scientific pri ze to best TV weather presenters (from left to right): Mr Michel Jarraucl, Deputy Secretary-Gene ral , WMO; Sophie Davant (France 2); A lain Gillot-Petre (TF I, France); and Ray Wilkie (TV 10, Australia) Photos: Fond 8/eu Commuuicmiou

281 The festival featured professional lectures, WMO's participation in the festival is part of shows, roundtables, public events and a com­ the ongoing media alliance initiative of its WMO petition of TV and radio weather presentations. Information and Public Affairs Programme, lt culminated in the presentation of the six main whi ch aims to enlist the support of TV produc­ awards. ers, broadcast meteorologists and journalists in The Secretary-General of WMO, Prof. G. 0. P. allocating priority to World Meteorological Day Oba si, Honorary President of the Fe stival for 1997, (WMD) and to climate and water theme s in their was represented at the ceremonies by the Deputy broadcast agenda and TV programming . In this Secretary-General , Mr M. Jarraud, who presented connection, Mrs Eirah Gorre-Dale, Senior Officer, the scientific prize- won jointly by Mr Ray Wilkie Information and Public Affairs, presented the (TV 10, Au stralia) and Alain Gillot-Petre (TF1, WMD 1997 theme "Weather and water in cities" France)- and the grand Festival Trophy-won by and WMO's new videofilm on this topic was pre­ Patrick de Bellefeuille (Meteo-Media, Canada) . viewed for broadcasters, weather presenters The festival brings together broadcast and the general public . Interviews were al so meteorologists , journalists, producers and other given to several TV, rad io and print media cover­ communication professionals in a lively and con­ ing the festival. WMO had an exhibition stand, genial setting. A highlight of the public pro­ which drew many vi sitors to a display on the gramme was a fashion parade that showcased WMD theme, WMO publications , posters and many of France's leading couturiers whose videofilm s. designs reflected the influence of weather on Other winner s included : Presenters' Prize : dress . The professional programme con sisted Franci s Wilson (Sky News , United Kingdom), of lectures and roundtable s on a variety of top­ Press Club of France Media Prize: Fred Talbot ics, including the economic benefits of weather (Granada TV, United Kingdom), MediaMetrie information, weather and wine-making, weather European Prize : Sophie Davant (France 2), and humour, and new communication technolo­ Press Club of France Reportage Prize : Meteo­ gies presented by several companie s manufa c­ Media (Canada), French Radio Prize: Jacques turing TV weather presentation software . Kessler (Radio France).

Technical cooperation

Country projects Pakistan Brunei Darussa/am A sectoral support mission in the field of agro­ meteorology was carried out by a WMO consul­ In response to a reque st from the Permanent tant, Dr W. Baier (Canada) in September 1996 Representative of Brunei Darussalam with in response to a request by the Director-General WMO, a sectoral support mission was carried of the Meteorological Department of Pakistan. out by WMO consultants Mr K. J. Wilson (Aus­ The consultant advised the Department on the tralia) and Mr H. G. Wai (Hong Kong) during upgrading of agrometeorological stations, data­ the first half of December 1996. The main processing facilities and manpower development, purpose of the mission was to advise the as well as strengthening coordination and cooper­ meteorological authorities in Brunei Darus­ ation with agricultural in stitutions . A number of salam on a new organizational structure of recommendations were made and are being the Service, including the computer network implemented by the Department. In addition, a and manpower development in order to meet draft project proposal was formulated and sub­ future challenges in weather forecasting, cli­ mitted to the authorities for their consideration. mate data resources, environmental con­ cerns, etc. A report and a proposal for the Inter-country projects development and reorganization of the Ser­ CARIB-HYCOS Project Proposal vi ce were provided to the meteorological authorities for consideration and to initiate Negotiations are under way with the lnter­ action for implementation. American Development Bank and other potential

282 donors to support the CARIB-HYCOS project pro­ of agrometeorological information and advice posal. The profile for the project was presented by the decentralized rural bodies and popula­ and discussed with representatives of 26 coun­ tion, in order to help increase agricultural pro­ tries during the conference on Assessment and duction in line with sustainable development. Management Strategies for Latin America and the In Mali, the project is in its fourth phase, Caribbean in San Jose, Costa Rica from 6 to 11 having obtained a contribution of US$ 603 126 May 1996. The CARIB-HYCOS proposal gener­ from Switzerland and a counterpart contribution ated much interest and resulted in the signing of of CFA francs 489 400 000 from the Govern­ a Letter of Intent, by all participating countries of ment of Mali . The dual purpose of this project, the Caribbean and Central American Regions . The which is scheduled to last three and a half aim is to establish CARIB-HYCOS through the use years as from September 1996, is to continue of professional expertise available in the region, promoting the application of agrometeorologi­ as well as existing cooperative arrangements and cal information among the decentralized rural facilities, and to mobilize the necessary resources bodies and to develop and set up a programme for implementation of this project. of meteorological and climatological informa­ The objective of the project is the improve­ tion for environmental conservation purposes. ment of regional cooperation on integrated The Swiss contributions to these two pro­ water-resources management and environmen­ jects will cover costs related to consultants' tal issues among the participating countries of missions; local support staff; basic and advanced the Caribbean Sea Basin. personnel training through individual fellowships; group training for farmers and observers ; mete­ Contribution of Switzerland towards orological equipment for the observing and implementation of Phase IV of the telecommunication networks; computer hard­ AGRHYMET Programme ware for data processing ; transport for field As part of its contribution to the AGRHYMET activities; and a contribution towards the pro­ Programme , Switzerland is continuing to sup­ jects' operating costs . port funding of pilot projects on agrometeorol­ The contributions from the recipient coun­ ogy in Chad and Mali. tries will cover salaries of the staff involved in the In Chad, the project is in its second phase , projects' implementation; premises and a contri­ having received a contribution of US$ 605 910 bution towards the projects' operating costs. from Switzerland and a counterpart contribution As regards Switzerland's contribution at of CFA francs 64 104 000 from the Govern­ regional level, a proposal is being examined by ment of Chad. The purpose of this project, the Swiss authorities to continue training in which is scheduled to last four years as from hydrology for Class 11 and Ill personnel at the January 1997, is to popularize the application AGRHYMET Centre.

In the Regions

Fifth Technical Conference on Management logical Services in Africa participated, as well as for Development of Meteorological Services representatives of the African Centre of Meteoro­ in Africa logical Applications for Development and the Agency for Air Safety in Africa and Madagascar. The Fifth Technical Conference on Management The Conference addressed various issues for Development of Meteorological Services in under the following topics: Africa was held in Casablanca, Morocco, from • Adaptation of the structure of national 19 to 23 November 1996. lt was opened by HE Meteorological Services to the new eco­ Mr Abdelaziz Meziane Belafkih, Minister of Public nomic order; Works of the Kingdom of Morocco. Prof. G. 0. P. Obasi, Secretary-General of WMO, addressed the • Adaptation of meteorology to other related opening session . Some 38 Directors and five disciplines and follow-up to UNCED, includ­ senior meteorological staff of national Meteoro- ing capacity building;

283 • Meteorology: public servi ces or commer­ parallel 40, whe re virtually no stati ons existed. cial enterprise? The rea son for this was the small population, The Conference made some important difficulty of access and the lack of demand for conc lu sions and adopted several recommenda ­ data . This demand grew, however, together with tions . The implementation of the re commenda­ increas in g recognition of the importance of th e tions wi ll greatly contribute to the further devel­ region's water resources and their potential for opment of Meteorological Servi ces in Africa . hydropower production. A basic network was therefore de signated, mainly for the evaluation Hydrological stations in southern Chile revisited of hydroelectric potential. By E. BASSO Th e counterpart agencies for the project In th e early 1960s, three projects were started in were th e Chilean Meteorological Directorate, Ch ile , Ecuador and Peru with WMO as executin g the Department of Irrigation of th e Ministry of agency. They were funded by the United Nations Public Works and the National El ectric Company Special Fund (later the United Nations Develop­ (ENDESA). ENDESA was re sponsible for electric ment Programme) and had as their objectives to power development and already operated net­ expand and improve the meteorological and works related to existing and potential hydro­ hydrological networks of the countries con­ power production. lt was, th erefore , a mi ssion ce rned. In this , they were high ly successful. from ENDESA, headed by the author and guided Although th e Chile an network was in satis­ by the WMO project manager Dr I. Font-Tu llot, factory operating conditions, its density was which first explored the region next to the Strait not up to WMO standards. Thi s was particularly of Magellan and located sites for the insta ll ation the case of the hydrometric network south of of the first hydrometric stations in the area.

Hydrometry in southern Chile

(Clockw ise from lop lefl): the Sarm ie nto Glacier. showing recent melting; th e Grey Ri ver hyd rom etric station at Torres del Pai ne (the stru cture des ig n was later used in th e WMO/UNDP Central A meri can Hyd rometeo­ rological Project); and the Grey Glacier, from whic h the Grey River originates, also show­ in g some melling

284 Some 35 years later, the situation has Brasilia, Brazil, from 28 February to 1 March changed. ENDESA has been privatized and basic 1997. it was convened by the president of hydrological activities have been entrusted to a Regional Association Ill , with the support of the new National Directorate for Water (Direcci6n WMO Secretariat. Delegates from 12 of the 13 Nacional de Aguas (DNA}). The DNA took over countries of the Region participated in the event, most of ENDESA's network that was not required highlighting the interest in regional activities. for the direct operation or construction of A delegation from Spain also attended. hydropower plants, including tho se in the zone The main subject was the design of a strategy referred to above. for the new Meteorological Telecommunication s The author recently had the opportunity of Network in Region Ill . The meeting was informed visiting the area, which comprises the Torres del of the present status of the centres and telecom­ Paine National Park (de signated as a UNESCO munication circuits in the Region and possibilities Biosphe re Reserve in April 1978} and he had the for their future development. The recommended pleasant surprise of finding, in several of the new network is based on the concept of value­ sites visited all those years ago, hydrometric sta­ added networks which should allow for obtaining tions in perfect condition, operating in harmony a better cost-benefit ratio. with the breathtaking landscape. Certainly, use of Another important topic related to the lbero­ water in hydroelectric production is not now an American Climate Project. The meeting noted with objective in this zone, as it will be preserved as satisfaction that all the prerequisites had been com­ near to its natural condition as possible. Even so, plied with, making the preparation phase of the the network has already produced valuable infor­ feasibility study ready to commence in April 199 7. mation, e.g. inputs to studies of domestic water Th e meeting requested that as many national supplies for Punta Arena s, the largest city in the Meteorological Services as possible should partici­ area, and for evaluating the effects of climate pate so that the feasibility study wou ld clearly change. These effects can clearly be seen in the reflect their requirements and unrealistic solutions accompanying photographs of the Sarmiento could be avoided . glacier, which is located a few kilometres from The importance was stressed of Mem­ the station that is shown in the other picture. Ten bers with more resources collaborating with years ago, the glacier reached fjord level, and a those with fewer and that homogenization significant part of the ice has now melted as a should be sought in the stated requirements of result, it is claimed, of global warming . countries. Several matters of a technical and admin­ Coordination Meeting of Meteorological istrative nature were also dealt with which would and Hydrological Services of RA Ill be discussed during the twelfth session of A meetin g of Directors of Meteorological and Regional Association Ill (Salvador de Bahia , Brazil , Hydrological Service s of RA Ill was held in 17-26 September 1997}.

News and notes

International Station Meteorological Cli­ also given for approximately 5 000 other world­ mate Summary on CD-ROM wide site s. Ver sion 4.0 adds 400 new foreign The National Climatic Data Center (NCDC} announces station s, monthly precipitation tables for 1 100 the release on CD-ROM of International Station foreign station s, and updated US station sum­ Meteorological Climate Summary Version 4.0. maries until 1995. This CD-ROM provides detailed climatological This CD-ROM is the fourth in a series pro­ summaries for 2 600 locations worldwide with duced at the Federal Climate Comp lex in Ashe­ approximately 40 tables and summaries avail­ ville, NC, as a joint product of NCDC and the US able for each station . These location s include Navy, and Air Force. The software is IBM-compatible National Weather Service stations, domestic and allows the user to view, print, export, and and overseas Navy/ Air Force site s, and numer­ graph (histograms of selected tables, wind ous foreign stations. Limited summarie s are roses , etc.} the data . The user can se lect the

285 station or region in a number of ways, such as power when the substance reaches its half-life by WMO station number, individual country, alpha­ in about another 70 years . betical sort. latitude/longitude area or by mouse For more information, contact Teledyne click on a user-defined map. o Brown Engineering, 300 Sparkman Drive, A few of its products/summaries are: PO Box 070007, Huntsville , AL 35807- • A one-page climate summary for the station 7007, USA. Tel.: (800) 933-2091. with monthly averages and extremes of Fax: (205) 726 3838. temperature , precipitation (amount and/ or frequency), cloudiness, humidity, winds, Publication announcement occurrence of various weather phenomena (e.g. fog , thunderstorms). etc.; Numerical Methods in Atmospheric and Oceanic Modelling • Frequency distribution of daily maximum C. Lin, R. Laprise and H. Ritchie (Eds.) and minimum temperatures by month; (1997) ISBN 0-9698414-4-2 (h/b) Canadian • Bivariate distribution of dry versus wet bulb Meteorological and Oceanographic Society temperatures; and NRC Research Press, 624 pp. Price: • Frequency distribution of wind direction Can$ 79.95 versus wind speed by month/hour. This is a companion volume to the Society's quarterly journal Atmosphere-Ocean, dedi­ 0 The CD·ROM can be purchased (US$ 130 + cated to the memory of Dr Andre J. Robert US$ 11 shipping) from: National Climatic and his outstanding work in numerical Data Center Climate Services Branch, methods for atmospheric and fluid mod­ 151 Patton Avenue, Room 468, Asheville, elling. It is a collection of 27 papers, 25 of NC 28801, USA. which are refereed, based on invited presen­ Tel.: (704! 271-4800 tations made at a Memorial Symposium at Fax : (704) 271-4876 the University of Quebec, Montreal, 5-7 E-mail: [email protected] October 1994. The other two present a his­ After 25 years and 9.7 billion kilometres ... torical perspective of numerical weather prediction and Robert's pioneering contri­ When the National Aeronautics and Space butions to numerical modelling. The book Administration (NASA) of the USA launched the also contains four short, as yet unpublished, spacecraft Pioneer 10 in 1972, it required that manuscripts of Robert, two in his own hand­ the power supply, built by the Energy Systems writing, in French with an English transla­ unit of Teledyne Brown Engineering generate tion. The book should be of interest to all electricity for a three-year mission . modellers, as well as to Robert's friends and Twenty-five years later, however, the colleagues. power system is stil l producing electricity for Pioneer 1O's transmitter. Several weeks ago, 0 NRC Research Press, Montreal Road, NASA's receiving station accepted its last radio Building M55, Ottawa, Ontario KJA OR6, transmission from the spacecraft that began in Canada interstellar space and took more than nine hours to travel some 9. 7 billion kilometres . As transmission terminated, the space­ Weather satellite fails but customers are craft had sent back more than 500 images of kept happy Jupiter, had been slung by Jupiter's gravity A failure in the attitude and orbit control sys­ beyond the orbits of Saturn, Uranus, Neptune tem aboard weather satellite GOES 8 caused and Pluto; and had been the first man-made the computer link with ground stations to break object to leave the solar system . down at about 8h30 on 9 January 199 7 and it The power unit consists of four genera­ was not known how long the outage wou ld la st. tors that use the natural heat generated by the GOES 8 is the only source of sate llite decay of a radioisotope to produce a constant weather data in the eastern USA and NOM's flow of electricity, which has gradually Satellite Operations Control Center conse­ decreased as the radioisotope has decayed. quently programmed GOES 9, orbiting in the The unit will sti ll be generating a trickle of west, near Hawaii , to broadcast full Earth shots 286 every hour instead of every three hours. At geotechnica Weather Services International (WSI) , the crisis The International Trade Fair and Congress for contingency plan was put into operation. By the Geosciences and Geotechnology-geotech­ 1Oh45, staff were making software changes nica-has been held in Cologne, Germany, at and, by llhOO, were re-mapping GOES 9 two-year intervals since 1991 in collaboration images into GOES 8 continental and regional with Ki:ilnMesse (Cologne Fair). lt offers a com­ perspectives, which are critical for users such munication and discussion forum for exhibitors as TV stations and airlines . The results were so and visitors from all sectors of the geo-sciences, accurate and detailed that most viewers were technology, politics and industry. lt affords com­ unaware of the switch which continued for mercial firms, institutions, universities, research some 36 hours, until noon on 11 January, as institutes and countries from around the world long as engineers remained unsure of satellite the opportunity to present their projects and navigation. products with the ultimate aim of overcoming environmental problems. In 1997, the theme 0 For further information, contact WSI, was "Environmentally friendly utilization of our 4 Federal Street, Billerica, MA 01821- resources on the threshold to the next millen­ 3559, USA. Tel.: 508-670-5000. nium". The four main themes were mineral and Fax : 508-670-5100. energy raw materials; water and soil; geomoni­ toring and land utilization; and geosciences in The Alfred Wegener Foundation the service of society. Alfred Wegener was a pioneer in the geosciences and their integration at the beginning of this 0 geotechnica is regularly covered in the WMO century. Today, the Alfred Wegener Foundation Bulletin (Ed.). For further information, (AWF) consists of 20 geoscientific sponsoring contact the Alfred-Wegener-Stiftung, Weiher­ associations having the objective of setting new strasse 34-40, 50676 Koln, Germany. standards in the areas of research, training , Tel.: 221-92-18-25-0. Fax: 221-92-18-25-4 application and development. 0 Weather is Polish TV favourite! Interdisciplinary conferences According to the newspaper Rzeczpospolita, The annual Alfred Wegener Conferences bring the most popular programme on Poland's first together experts from all over the world at topi­ TV channel in October 1996 was the weather cal multidisciplinary meetings, whose subjects forecast at 20h00, with the evening news at have included climate dynamics (1994); con­ 19h30 second. o vection processes and movement mechanisms Rolex Awards for Enterprise in the Earth's crust (1995) and the development of geography teaching in schools (1996). Readers may remember that the January 1997 Bulletin carried an item on the Rolex Awards for Geotechnical information and application Enterprise. Every two years, five winners each The AWF is committed to keeping the public receive US$ 50 000 and a gold chronometer well informed about the Earth's resources and and 10 runners up each receive US$ 10 000 their potential. For instance, more effective and a steel and gold chronometer. Three of the assessments are required about underground projects which won Rolex Awards in 1996 are water, its deposits, quality, renewal, extraction, briefly described below. processing and purification. The role of 1996 laureates anthropogenic interference in the water cycle also needs to be better understood. • An Au stralian physicist filmed the aurora Another anthropogenic effect is the growing borealis in Alaska , using a camera he built amount of trace elements in the atmosphere as a himself. In capturing the first large-format result of increasing energy consumption. An images of the se mysterious heavenly increase in sea level is a particular danger to lights, he has made them accessible to the islands and low-lying regions in countries which general public; cannot afford the complex and costly construc­ tion measures. The AWF seeks to help such coun­ • A Belgian teacher restored a unique canal. tries in their protection and prevention efforts. Built between 1880 and 1917 it is the only

287 in Spain, a country where 44 per cent of Conference announcement the land suffers from soil erosion; MEDCOAST97 A new method of studying traces of The Third International Conference on the ancient earthquakes in caves by studying Mediterranean Coastal Environment fault lines and movements of stalactites (MEDCOAST 97) will be held in Qawra, and stalagmites with the aim of gaining a Malta, from 11 to 14 November 1997. better understanding of the Earth's move­ 0 For further information contact: ments (France); Ms Bahar Keskin, MEDCOAST A hygienically sealed, durable , 50-litre Secretariat, Middle East Technical water drum, which can easily be rolled by University, 06531 Ankara, Turkey. one adult or two children (in one test, a Tel.: 90-312-210-54-29 drum travelled more than 12 000 km in 20 Fax: 90-312-210-14-12. months and transported more than E-mail: [email protected]· 130 000 litres of water) (South Africa); A series of expeditions around the Pacific remaining functioning canal of its type in Rim to collect high-altitude data on acid the world. it is built on a system of four 17- rain , global warming and pollution (Japan); metre high boat lifts which operate with Satellite surveillance and monitoring to non-polluting hydraulic energy on the same identify regions in Africa where locusts principle as a funicular railway, i.e. one start swarming (locusts in Africa can boat is lifted, while another is lowered; consume 20 000 tons of vegetation in one • A German civil servant designed, built and day, the equivalent of one year's food for delivered 26 troughs and pumps to six 100 000 people (Germany) . different locations in Mauritania, providing access to water for 1 000 nomads and Areas of recognition their animals, whose existence had been Rolex Awards are conferred in the following five threatened by drought. Traditional watering categories : science and medicine, technology holes are easily contaminated and have no and innovation, exploration and discovery, the trough. The new design improves the environment, and cultural heritage. quality of the water delivered and reduce s 0 This article was extracted from The Rolex the time needed for watering livestock to Awards for Enterprise Journal. For more one or two hours. information, contact: The Secretariat, The Some runners up among the projects Rolex Awards for Enterprise, PO Box 1311, 1211 Geneva 26, Switzerland. • A reforestation programme overseeing the Tel .: (41 22) 308 22 00. planting of hundreds of thousands of trees Fax: (41 22) 308 25 85.

News from the Secretariat

Secretary-General's visits Nigeria Prof. G. 0. P. Obasi visited Nigeria from 14 to The Secretary-General, Prof. G.O.P. Obasi, 17 December 1996 to sign the agreement recently made official visits to a number of between WMO and the Government of the Fed­ Member countries as briefly reported below. eral Republic of Nigeria on the establishment of He wishes to place on record his gratitude to the WMO Subregional Office for West Africa in those Members for the kindne ss and hospitality Lago s. The signature ceremony was held in extended to him. Abuja on 17 December 1996. The agreement 288 Fiji On his way to Western Samoa, the Secretary­ General visited Fiji . He was received by Mr Jone Koroitamana, Permanent Secretary for Touri sm and Civil Aviation, and Mr R. Pra sad, Director of Meteorology and Permanent Repre sentative of Fiji with WMO. Mr Prasad briefed him on the organization and activities of the Meteorological Service . Discussions were held on matters of common interest, including the proposed estab­ lishment of a WMO Subregional Office for the South-West Pacific Region . The Secretary-Gen­ Abuja, Nigeria, 17 December 1996- Prof. G. 0 . P. Obasi and HE Chief Tom lkimi sign the agreement between eral expressed the appreciation of WMO for the WMO and Nigeria to establish the WMO Subregional support and services being provided by the Fiji Office for West Africa in Lagos Meteorological Service to Small Island States in the Pacific through the Nadi Regional Special­ was signed on behalf of the Federal Republic of ized Meteorological Centre. Nigeria by HE Chief Tom lkimi, Minister of For­ eign Affairs . United States of America Western Samoa The Secretary-General participated in the 77th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological The Secretary-General visited Western Samoa Society (AMS) , which was held in Long Beach, from 20 to 23 January 1997. He was received California, USA, from 2 to 27 February 1997. by the Prime Minister, HE Mr Tofilau Eti Ale­ Prof. Obasi made a presentation entitled "Impli­ sana, and had fruitful discussions on the cation s of the IPCC projections of 21st century strengthening of the excellent relationship climate-a view from WMO" to the Eighth Sym­ between Western Samoa and WMO . He also posium of Global Change Studies, which formed met with Mr Tuala Sale Tagaloa , Minister of part of the AMS meeting. He also had fruitful Lands, Surveys and Environment, and Mr M. discussions with a number of permanent repre­ Teufilo, Minister of Agriculture, Fore stry, Fish­ sentatives of Member countries with WMO, eries and Meteorological Servi ces for discus­ members of the academic community and rep­ sions on the strengthening of the Meteorologi­ resentatives of the private sector. cal Services, the Apia Observatory and the establishment of the WMO Subregional Office Azerbaijan for the South-West Pacific. The Secretary-General also met with Mr The Secretary-General visited Baku, Azerbaijan, Tamarii P. Tutan gata, Director of the South from 11 to 13 February 1997, where he Pacific Regional Environment Programme and addressed the seco nd session of the Coordinat­ exchanged views on matters of mutual inter­ ing Committee on Caspian Sea Hydrometeorol­ est, including that of hosting the proposed ogy and Pollution Monitoring. WMO Subregional Office . · He was received by the Pre sident of Azer­ The Secretary-General had discussions baijan, HE Mr Heidar Aliev, and the Prime Minis­ with Mr Anthony R. Patten , UNDP Re sident Rep­ ter, HE Mr A. Rasizadeh. They exchanged views resentative and Resident Coordinator, and with on matters of mutual interest, in particular, the representatives of UN agencies and major strengthening of the excellent relationship donors in Apia . He encouraged them to con­ between Azerbaijan and WMO. The Secretary­ tinue providing necessary support to national General had discussions with the UNDP Resi­ Meteorological Services in the Pacific . dent Representative and UN Re sident Coordina­ The Secretary-General was accompanied tor, Mr P. Lembo, on support to the State on hi s visit by Dr Sontokusumo Karjoto, presi­ Hydrometeorological Committee. He also held dent of Regional Association V (South-West di scussion s with several other high-ranking offi­ Pa cific) and Mr E. H. AI-Majed, Director, WMO cia ls of th e Government. In particular, he had Regional Office for Asia and the South-West extensive discussions with Mr Z. F. Musayev, Pacific . Permanent Representative of Azerbaijan with

289 WMO, on matters related to the development of expressed his appreciation of the President's the State Hydrometeorological Committee. personal interest in, and knowledge of, weather and climate, especially as regards agriculture Thailand and the sugar-cane crop in particular, and the The Secretary-General travelled to Thailand to economy in general. address the Second Joint Session of the WMO/ Prof. Obasi also had a meeting with HE Ms ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones and the Rosa Elena Simeon Negrin, Minister of Science, ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee, which was Technology and Environment, and discussed held in Phuket from 20 to 28 February 1997. matters of mutual interest between Cuba and The Secretary-General visited the Meteorologi­ WMO . He also had discussions with Dr Fabio cal Service and discussed a number of issues Fajardo Moras, President of the Environment with Mr Smith Tumsaroch , Director-General of Agency, Dr Tomas Gutierrez Perez, Director of the Thai Meteorological Service and Permanent the Cuban Meteorological Institute and the Per­ Representative of Thailand with WMO. manent Representative of Cuba with WMO, and In Bangkok, Prof. Obasi had an audience Dr Cesar Menendez Garcfa , President of the with HM King Bhumibol Adulyadej . He offered Cuban Meteorological Society. the King his best wishes and congratulations and those of the Organization on the 50th Morocco anniversary of his reign . In a lengthy discussion, The Secretary-General visited Morocco from 21 they exchanged views on meteorology and on to 23 March, where he addressed the first the strengthening of the excellent relationship World Water Forum, which wa s held in Mar­ between Thailand and WMO . rakech (20 to 25 March) and organized by the Prof. Obasi also met with the Deputy Prime World Water Council under the patronage of HM Minister, HE Mr Korn Dabbarangsi, with whom King Hassan 11. he discussed matters of mutual interest to WMO Prof. Obasi presented a lecture on climate and Thailand and with Mr Adrianus Mooy, Execu­ change and freshwater management and was tive Secretary of ESCAP, with whom he dis­ one of the key speakers for the celebration of cussed ways of strengthening further the excel­ the World Day for Water on 22 March. He met lent cooperation between the two Organizations. with several ministers and other high-level Gov­ ernment officials, including the Permanent Rep­ Gabon resentative of Morocco with WMO, Mr Azzedine The Secretary-General visited Libreville, Gabon , Diouri . Prof. Obasi participated with the Direc­ from 4 to 6 March 1997. He had fruitful discu s­ tors-General of UNESCO and FAO in a press sions with the Prime Mini ster, HE Dr Paulin conference on water issues. Obame-Nguema , and with Mr Albert Njave-Njoy, Staff changes Minister of Transport and Civil Aviation; Mr Mar­ eel Doupambi , Minister of Finance ; and Mr Appointments Mabika Mouyama, Minister of Planning, on the On 25 January 1997, Dr Fredrick H. M. development of the Meteorological Service of ~- 1 Semazzi was Gabon . The Secretary-General also had discus­ appointed sions with Mr Daniel Ondo Ndong, Permanent Chief, WMO Cli­ Representative of Gabon with WMO, as well as mate Informa­ with Dr Houenessou, the UN Resident Coordina­ tion and Predic­ tor and Mr Voubou from the UNDP Office. tion Services (CLIPS) Project Cuba Office in the The Secretary-General visited Havana, Cuba, World Climate from 9 to 12 March 1997 to address the Programme twelfth session of the Commission for Marine Department. Dr Meteorology (CMM). Semazzi holds Prof. Obasi had an audience with HE Dr B.Sc , M.Sc. Fidel Castro , President of Cuba , during which and Ph .D. he thanked the President for hosting the CMM degrees in session and other major WMO events . He also Fredrick H. M. Semazzi meteorology 290 from the University of Nairobi, Kenya . Before tak­ is the author and co-author of a number of publ~ ing up his duties with WMO, Dr Semazzi worked cations in those fields . at the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, the On 1 April1997, Miss Anna Banchieri was US National Science Foundation and North Car­ appointed olina State University, as Associate Professor, Librarian, Tech­ since 1991 . Dr Semazzi is author and co-author nical Library, of numerous publications and technical papers in Atmospheric the fields of climate and climate modelling. Research and On 1 February 1997, Mr Jeong-Gyoo Park Environment ,------, was appointed Programme Junior Profes­ Department. sional Officer in Miss Banchieri the Regional holds a degree Office for Asia in modern liter­ and the South­ ature from the West Pacific . University of Mr Park holds Naples, Italy, B.Sc. and and a post- M.Sc. degrees graduate Anna Banchieri in meteorology degree in from Yonsei library science from the Vatican School of Library University, Science. Before taking up her duties with WMO, Seoul, Republic Miss Banchieri worked as Reference Librarian at of Korea. the United Nations Dag Hammarskjold Library, Jeong-Gyoo Park Before taking New York, having held various librarian positions up his duties with WMO, Mr Park had worked with in Italy since 1984. She is also the author of sev­ the Korea Meteorological Administration since eral publications in the field. 1983, first as researcher and meteorologist and most recently as Assistant Director of the Inter­ Departures national Cooperation Division. On 31 January 1997, Mr Yun-Ang Chung On 3 February 1997, Mr Jairo B. Granados returned to the Republic of Korea upon comple­ Fernimdez tion of his four-year assignment as Junior Pro­ was appointed fessional Officer in the Regional Office for Asia Chief, Informa­ and the South-West Pacific. We wish him every tion Systems success in his future career. Division of the On 31 January 1997, Mr Naginder S. Support Ser­ Sehmi retired from his post of Senior Scientific vices Depart­ Officer in the Office for HOMS of the Hydrology ment. Mr and Water Resources Department. Mr Sehmi Granados joined the Secretariat on 7 February 1970. We holds a degree wish him a long and happy retirement. in statistics from Colombia Promotions National Univer­ On 1 February 1997, Mr John L. Bassier was sity. Before tak­ promoted to the position of Chief, Hydrology ing up his Division of the Hydrology and Water Resources duties with Jairo B. Granados Ferm\ndez Department. WMO, Mr On 1 April1997, Mr Ah Kim Lee Choon was Granados was Head, Information Systems Ser­ promoted to the position of Chief, Finance Division vices of the International Research Center for of the Resource Management Department. Agroforestry in Nairobi. Previously, since 1971 , On 1 April1997, Mr David Sutton was pro­ Mr Granados worked as a statistician, biometri­ moted to the position of Senior Budget Officer, cian and information systems specialist in vari­ Finance Division, Resource Management Depart­ ous national and international organizations. He ment, as a result of the re{;lassification of his post.

291 Transfers denoting scientific area, targeted activity, personnel On 3February 1997, Mr Oscar N. Arango­ class, course emphasis, course duration and fre­ Botero was re-assigned as Subregional Repre· quency, teaching language and information update sentative of WMO to the WMO Subregional being the most appropriate for the overall thrust of Office for Northern America, Central America the course concerned. Information about syllabus, and the Caribbean in San Jose, Costa Rica. educational facility, entrance qualification and other On 10 February 1997, Mr Mohamed available information is also provided . lt is intended Boulama was re-assigned as Subregional Rep­ to update the publication at least twice a year. resentative of WMO to the WMO Subregional Lectures presented at the Twelfth World Meteoro- Office of Africa in Lagos, Nigeria . logical Congress. WMO-No. 845 (1997) ISBN Anniversaries 92-63-10845-5 . English. 43 pp., diagrams Mrs D. Bouazria, Senior Telephone-Telex Oper­ (some in colour). Price: SFR 38. ator, Mail and Communications Unit, Support The lectures presented are: "Status of the 'global Services Department, completed 30 years of warming' hypothesis", by G. A. McBean; "Global service on 1 March 1997. ozone change and possible climate implications" · Mrs M. A: Glavin, Personal Assistant to by R. D. Bojkov; "Interactions between desertifica­ the Secretary-General, completed 25 years of tion and climate processes" by L. A. Oga llo and service on 13 March 1997. "Seasonal climate prediction-status and Mr A. J. Askew, Chief, Water Resources Div~ prospects" by D. R. Rodenhuis. sion, Hydrology and Water Resources Department, completed 20 years of service on 1 March 1997. Weather and Water in Cities. WMO-No. 853 (1997) ISBN 92-063-10853-6. English, French, Russian Recent WMO publications and Spanish. 24 pages, numerous illustrations Guide to Meteorological Instruments and Methods in colour. Price: SFR 15. of Observation. WMO-No. 8 (sixth edition, Urbanization has serious consequences on the 1996) ISBN 92-63-16008-2. Part 1- Measure­ availability and use of freshwater resources: as ment of meteorological variables . English, cities expand, so do their requirements for water. 570 pp., loose-leaf. (Parts 11 and Ill in English At the same time, urban areas are particularly vul­ and Parts I, 11 and 11 in French, Russian and nerable when natural disasters strike, most of Spanish versions in preparation). Price (for which are of a meteorological or hydrological Parts I, 11 and 11 , supplement service and nature. binder): SFR 150. The theme for World Meteorological Day in Part I of this new edition of the Guide contains 1997, 'Weather and water in cities", was chosen in revised versions of the corresponding chapters in the context of the follow-up to the Second United the fifth edition plus new chapters on the measure­ Nations Conference on Human Settlements (Habi­ ment of ozone and atmospheric composition, all tat Ill, held in Istanbul, Turkey, in June 1996. lt is reflecting recent deveiopments. The Guide is writ­ essential that po licy-makers and the general public ten primarily for national Meteorological Services recognize the value of meteorological, hydrological but the needs of other organizations and institu­ and climatological information, as provided by tions making meteorological measurements have national Meteorological and Hydrological Services, been taken into account. In view of the constant towards healthy cities and sustainable develop­ evolution of meteorological measurements, the ment. sixth edition is loose-leaf so that revisions of chap­ The World's Water-Is There Enough? WMO-No. ters may be issued in the future, as required. 857 (1997) ISBN 92-63-10857-9. English, Compendium of Education and Training Facilities French, Russian and Spanish. 22 pages, for Meteorology and Operational Hydrology illustrations. Price: SFR 15. (seventh edition, 1996). ISBN 92-63-07240-X. This booklet outlines the issues of assessment of English;french/Russian/Spanish. Looseleaf. the world's freshwater supply and the availability Price (including supplement service and and use of that water's resources. Its purpose is to binder): SFR 60 . draw the attention of all concerned to the urgent Each course is characterized in a condensed man­ need to enhance the monitoring and assessment ner by a standardized line of seven key words of water resources in rivers and aquifers, particu-

292 larly in basins shared regionally or internationally. September-3 October 1996). WMO-No. 851 This is vital in order to meet today's and tomorrow's (1997) ISBN 92-63-10851-5. Arabic, English, increasing demand for water information and to French and Russian . acquire the knowledge necessary for sustainable development. Commission for Hydrology-Abridged final report of the tenth session (Koblenz, Germany, Recently issued reports 2-12 December 1996). WMO-No. 852 Regional Association 11 (Asia)-Abridged final report (1997) ISBN 92-63-10852-8. English, of the eleventh session (Uiaanbaatar, 24 French, Russian and Spanish . 60 pp.

Obituaries

Fatikh Abdumalikovich Muminov leagues to create a Russian/Uzbek glossary of meteorology. The hydrometeorologists of Uzbekistan suf­ He took an active part in WMO activities: at fered a great the ninth and tenth sessions of RA 11 (Asia) in loss when, on Beijing (1988) and Tehran (1992), respectively, 19 July 1996, he was designated chairman of the Working the Chief of Group on Agricultural Meteorology; at the the national eleventh session of the Commission for Agricul­ Service's Agri­ tural Meteorology (Havana, 1995), he was cho­ cultural Mete­ sen as a member of the Advisory Working orology Divi­ Group. In these positions, Muminov clearly sion, Prof. demonstrated his scientific and organizational Fatikh Abdu­ capabilities, adroitly conducting sessions of the malikovich RA 11 Working Group on Agricultural Meteorol­ Muminov, died ogy in Nepal and Tehran, and preparing working at the age of group reports which were published in the 66. CAgM report series and summarized the results Prof. of research into current agrometeorological Muminov was Fatikh Abdumali kovich Muminov problems in Asia . born in He skilfully combined his research into Tashkent. After graduating from the Physics agricultural meteorology, much of which is now and Mathematics Faculty of the Central Asian being successfully applied by operational agro­ State University in 1953 and finishing postgrad­ meteorologists in Central Asia, with teaching : uate studies at the Institute of Mathematics and he gave lectures on agrometeorology at Mechanics of the Academy of Sciences of Tashkent State University, was a member of Uzbekistan in 1956, he successfully defended two scientific councils , and scientifically super­ his thesis for the degree of Kandidat and vised 10 specialists who were defending their became a Doctor of Geographical Sciences in kandidat degree theses . 1970. Prof. Muminov will be remembered by his He devoted 37 years of his life to research friends and colleagues as a great scientist, who in agricultural meteorology and published over developed the scientific traditions of the Central 200 scientific works, including four monographs. Asian school of agrometeorology, as a Two of these covered agrometeorological prob­ researcher and as an experienced teacher. lems in cultivating cotton , the main crop of The hydrometeorologists of Uzbekistan Uzbekistan. He helped popularize agrometeorol­ express their sincere condolences to his widow ogy by publishing two brochures, Weather and and two children. Cotton and Weather and Forecasting in both Russian and Uzbek and , shortly before his I. G. GRINGOF, K. M. ABDULLAYEV, death, he completed some joint work with col- A. K. ABDULLAYEV and 0. L. BABUSHKIN

293 Baron Nicolet Committee until October 1959, when he resigned. Marcel Nicolet was born on 26 February 1912 in His interest and research on ozone contin­ the Belgian Ardenne s. He began his studies in ued throughout his life and he was particularly classical Greek, Latin and Fren ch literature but proud when, in 1987, he was cited by the Inter­ decided to read mathematics when he went to national Ozone Commission as "one of the few the University of Liege in 1930. He changed scientists who had continuously made major again during his studies and took his first degree contribution s to the study of ozone". In 1989, in physics, with special interests in spectroscopy he published a wide-ranging review, The Atmos­ and photochemistry. He published in 1934, pheric Chemistry of Ozone, to mark the 100th jointly with Pol Swings, his first paper-on B anniversary of Dobson 's birth . He was the stars-and decided to study the molecular com­ author of more than 200 publications, including position of cold stars for his Ph .D. severa l on photodissociation and photoioniza­ In 1935 he began working as a weather tion , and predicted the presence of the helium forecaster during the day at the airport near belt around the Earth and of ions suc h as N0 1, Brussels and, as an astrophysicist by night, at N02, HN02, H02, and H202 in the atmosphere Liege . He obtained his D.Sc . in 1937 with a before they were observed. After retiring as main thesis on the spectra and composition of Director of the Belgian lnstitut d'Aeronomie stel lar atmospheres and a subsidiary paper on spatia l in 1977, he continued his research , the thermal inversion observed in the strato­ mainly on ultraviolet rad iation and atmospheric sphere. At the beginning of 1938, he obtained chemistry, until his death on 8 October 1996. a fellowship to study at the Arosa Observatory He received many international and but the Anschluss between Austria and Ger­ national distinctions, medals and prizes and many forced him to postpone this until Octo­ was made a hereditary Baron by King Baudouin ber, when he travelled for the first of many on 19 March 1987. He chose as his motto times with his wife, Alice. In Arosa, hi s interest "Haute Science, humble constance", and incor­ in ozone developed still further under B. W. B. porated into his coat of arms part of the IGY Dobson and in the airglow and UV-B with P. emblem, which he had designed . Gotz. He returned to Brussels in May 1939 and He was renowned for his unselfish spirit of spent the war years studying so lar-terrestrial cooperation , his foresightedness and his will­ relations and in particular the effects of UV ingness to acknowledge help from all. He wil l radiation on the ionosphere and on biological be greatly missed by his family and also by his systems. many friends, colleagues and students through­ At the invitation of F. Roach, he went to out the world . work in 1950 at Pasadena, USA, with D. Bar­ F. W. G. BAK ER bier, D. Bates and S. Chapman. At a meeting to discuss upper-atmosphere problems in the 0 This obituary has been reproduced, light of observations from early space slightly abridged, from Science Interna­ research, L. Berkner suggested that the Third tional, Newsletter No. 64 of the Interna­ International Polar Year (IPY) be held 25 years tional Council of Scientific Union s. Baron after the Second IPY of 1932-1933. S. Chap­ Nicolet was interviewed in WMO Bulletin man suggested the year be ca lled the Interna­ 39 14! (Ed.). tional Geophysical Year (IGY) because it would be a study of the whole of the Earth and its Pancheti Koteswaram atmosphere and not just the polar regions. The proposal was endorsed and the World Meteoro­ Dr Pancheti Koteswaram, former Director-General logical Organization was invited to participate. of Observatories, India Meteorological Depart­ In May 1952, ICSU created the Special ment (IMD), died in Visakhapatnam, India , on Committee for the IGY, of which S. Chapman 11 January 1997. became President, L. Berkner Vice-President Born on 25 March 1915 in Nellore, Andhra and Nicolet Secretary-General. Nicolet played Pradesh, India , Dr Koteswaram had a brilliant an important role in maintaining the balance academic career. He earned first rank at the between the various National Committees. He intermediate examination of Andhra University continued as Secretary-General of the IGY and was awarded the Sir R. Venk ataratnam

294 Naidu Gold In June 1969, he was appointed Director­ Medal in General of Observatories at IMD and Perma­ 1931. After nent Representative of India with WMO. He held graduating this position with distinction until 1975. During with honours this period, he embarked with enthusiasm on from Presi­ several new programmes, which included the dency College, introduction of computers, replacement of C Madras, he and F radiosondes by the more accurate audio­ worked as a modulated (A) type , setting-up of high-speed science telecommunication links with Moscow and demonstrator Tokyo for meteorological data exchange , com­ at A. C. Col­ missioning of computers for numerical weather lege, Guntur, prediction and installation of cyclone detection for two years radars on the east and west coasts of India. and at Andhra The division of satellite meteorology at New Or Pancheti Koteswaram University Sci­ Delhi and cyclone warning centres at Visakhap­ ence College, Waltair, for three years . He pur­ atnam and Bhubaneswar were initiated during sued his research work on the application of his tenure . the Raman effect, for which he obtained a Honours and titles naturally followed and D.Sc. in 1939. For a brief period he worked he was associated with a number of Indian as lecturer at Hindu College, Machilipatnam , and international scientific bodies. He was and as assistant professor at Pachayapp's elected Fellow of the Indian Academy of Sci­ College , Madras. ences in 1945, Fellow of the National Dr Koteswaram joined the IMD as Assis­ Academy of Sciences in 1971 and he was tant Meteorologist at Alipore, Calcutta, in also Fellow of the Andhra Pradesh Academy 1940, where he worked in operational weather of Science . He was President of the Visakhap­ forecasting and provided aviation forecasts to atnam Chapter of the Indian Meteorological the pilots of the Royal Air Force during World Society since its inception and also of the War 11. During this period, he also carried out Association of Hydrologists in India, Visakhap­ research on norwesters. After the War, he held atnam. In 1972, Andhra University conferred the position of Chief Meteorologist at Bombay on him the honorary degree of Doctor of Sci­ and Madras. ence. Above all , it was a proud moment for His interest in atmospheric science him and the whole meteorological community, research led him to publish a number of when the President of India conferred on him papers on the cyclones in the Bay of Bengal the pre stigious title of Padma Bhushan in Jan­ and the subtropical jet stream over India . His uary 1975 in recognition of his outstanding interest in the study of Bengal Bay cyclones services in the field of atmospheric sciences. was said to go back to his childhood, when , at Even at an advanced age, he continued the age of 12, in 1927, he was caught in a with his academic pursuits, and served as severe cyclone in Nellore. In recognition of his Honorary Professor in the Department of work, he was invited by Prof. Herbert Riehl to Meteorology and Oceanography of Andhra the University of Chicago , USA, during University for a number of years. 1955-1956; this was when he discovered the His knowledge and calibre were also rec­ existence of the tropical easterly jet over Afro­ ognized outside his own country. In 1965, he Asia . His original study on this topic was pub­ was invited as Visiting Professor to the Uni­ lished in Tel/us in 1958. versity of Miami. He also worked at the Dr Koteswaram made an outstanding con­ National Hurricane Research Laboratory of tribution to the advancement and moderniza­ the US Weather Bureau and at the National tion of meteorological services in India, for Centre for Atmospheric Research at Boulder which the IMD is indebted to him. In 1959, he in USA. He had the distinction of being associ­ planned and executed the meteorological com­ ated with WMO in various capacities: he was a ponent of the International Indian Ocean Expe­ member of the WMO Commission for Aero­ dition in collaboration with Prof. Ramage of the nautical Meteorology; an elected member of University of Hawaii. the Executive Council ; and, in 1971, he

295 became Third Vice-President on WMO for a was a strong man, who set out to achieve his term of four years. He was also a WMO expert goals with determination. Equally exceptional at the University of Tehran from 1975 to 1979. was his inner personality, which was replete Or Koteswaram was a man of great fore­ with humour, affection, sympathy and warmth sight. wh ich enabled him to offer outstanding for his fellow human beings. improvement in weather services, particularly He is survived by his wife, a son and three in the fields of observationa l and operational daughters. meteorology. He laid the foundations for a R. R. KELKAR modern Meteorological Service and was an eminent representative of his country in the 0 Or Koteswaram was interviewed in WMO world meteorological community. Outwardly, he Bulletin 39 (3). (Ed.)

Reviews

Water Resources Management in the Face of The results of a number of studies examining the C/imabc;Hydrofogic Uncertainties. Z. KAcllvWlEK, K. M. impact of climate change on evapotranspiration and SlmEPEK, L. Saw_voov and V. PRIAzHINSKAYA. Kluwer potential evapotranspiration, soil moisture and runoff Academic Publishers, Dordrecht (1996). xii + are analysed and summarized. The authors conclude 395 pages; numerous figures and diagrams. that the impact of climate change on runoff must be ISBN 0-7923-3927-4. Price: US$ 169. studied at the local basin level and that the definition of scenarios of the change wi ll be essential for suc­ This book was prepared under the IIASA Water cess in determining the nature of the changes. Resources Project with the aim of providing a com­ 0. Varis and L. Somly6dy present their views, in prehensive, international analysis of the impact of cli­ the third chapter, on the possible impact of climate matic change and variability on water-resources man­ change on the water quality of lakes and reservoirs. agement. it represents the joint efforts of a team of This aspect of the climate issue has not often received 27 scienti sts work ing at IIASA and various national broad attention in previous studies . Key variab les, in stitutions. The book is divided into two self-con­ boundary conditions and parameters needed for tained parts. The first, in six chapters, presents a evaluating the effects of climate variability and varia­ review of methodological problems facing water­ tions on the water quality of lakes and reservoirs are resources management under the conditions of cli­ identified and discussed . The authors have grouped mate change. water-quality problems into the following categories: The first chapter, by Z. Kaczmarek, N: W. Arnell eutrophication, oxygen depletion, hygienic problems, and L. Starkel, presents a general outline of the salinization, acidification , toxic and cumulative sub­ problems. A short description of the methods which stances, turbidity and suspended matter and thermal can be applied to create alternative climatic scenar­ pollution. Their interrelationship and relative contribu­ ios is given. Paleodata, prescribed methods, tempo­ tions are reviewed and checklists for planning, man­ ral analogues based on instrumental records and var­ agement and impact assessment purposes are pro­ ious modelling approaches are briefly discussed. An vided. The authors stress that many water-quality overview of concepts and methods for assessing the problems are liable to worsen because of climate possible effects of climate change on hydrology and change, yet there is extreme uncertainty concerning water resources is also provided . The following main the possible extent of change in any specific case. areas of research interests related to the climate­ The next chapter, by G. T. Orlob , G. K. Mayer, L. water-resources interface are identified and a more Somly6dy, D. Jurak and K. Szesztay, explores the detailed presentation of most of them is given: impact of the change of climatic factors on water improvement of the parameterization of land-surface quality in general, including the viability of life forms processes in global and mesoscale atmospheric in natural and artificial freshwater bodies. Interac­ models; sensitivity of water-ba lance components to tions between aquatic ecosystems and the land­ changes in climatic variables; impact of climate change scape are also briefly discussed . The authors have on the thermal regime and on the physical, chemical, attempted to identify the relevant literature address­ and biological processes in rivers, lakes, and reser­ ing the relationships between climate and water qual­ voirs; possible implications of climatic fluctuations on ity and special attention is given to water tempera­ water supply and demand; and the impact of climatic ture . Fundamental relationships governing exchange s change on the planning and operation of water­ of energy and mass between the atmosphere and resources systems . the hydrosphere are presented. The authors draw The second chapter, by S. Cohen, K. M. Strzepek attention to the fact that increases in atmospheric and D. N. Yates, deals with the conceptualization of temperature and changes in the amount and distribu­ the relationship between climate and water-balance tion of atmospheric precipitation can modify the ther­ components. The discussion on climatic change is mal equilibrium of streams, lakes, reservoirs, and limited to changes in temperature and precipitation . even estuarine systems. The methodology for the

296 assessment of climate change on water quality is, written by a variety of authors in diverse styles. Some however, still in the development phase and potential duplication could not be avoided but this makes the areas for future research are outlined. chapters more self-contained . In the fifth chapter, S. N. Kulshreshtha, Z. Kos The regional case-studies presented follow the and V. Priazhinskaya examine the implications of cli­ general character of the book. Emphasis is not on mate change on future water demand. The relation­ mathematical and theoretical backgrounds but more ship between water demand and climate variability is on the illustration of a variety of problems that may relatively unstudied and information on an appropri­ arise from changes in regional climatic characteris­ ate general methodology is often lacking. A number tics and the way they can be approached . This makes of methodological problems and empirical issues the case-studies easy to read and useful even for exist in the estimation of such effects. The discus­ non-water-resource specialists. lt may sometimes be sion concentrates on these and related topics. Cli­ difficult, however, for an inexperienced reader to matic factors affecting regional demand for water understand the methods involved and follow the con­ are separated and identified. Four major water uses clusions from theoretical considerations . are considered in detail: domestic, industrial (includ­ This is not a textbook on hydrology, water qual­ ing power generation), agricultural, and in situ use, ity, lake or stream ecology. Nor does it concentrate such as recreation. The chapter aims to provide a on the theoretical background of the components of conceptual basis for the relationship between climate the highly interdisciplinary content of water-resources change and water demand; show current methods management. lt does, however, offer a good oppor­ for predicting climate-induced water demand; identify tunity to understand the whole scope and interdisci­ major methodological and empirical problems in esti­ plinarity of a number of problems and the general mating climate-induced water demand; and deter­ underlying ideas for approaching them. Certain basic mine the major implications of climate-induced knowledge is required but the text is highly readable. effects on water demand for water-resources man­ In addition to its suitability for specialists, such as agement and related areas. researchers, it is also well-suited for policy-makers in In the last chapter of the methodological part of water-resources management, for non-specialists the book, Z. Kaczmarek, Z. Kundzewicz and V. Pri­ involved in the water-resources decision-making pro­ azhinskaya discuss how current assumptions, meth­ cess and for environmentalists interested in the future ods, and criteria in water resources planning should of the sustainable development of water resources. lt be altered for non-stationary conditions. The authors can also be used for upper-level undergraduate and concentrate on the question of how adjustable are for graduate courses on global and climate change. the water-resources systems affected by these changes Jan SZOLGAY and what might be the cost of the necessary adap­ tive measures. Planning techniques in an uncertain Soil Physics (third edition), by T. J. MARSHALL, J. W. climatic environment and criteria for the performance HoLMES and C. W. RosE. Cambridge University of water systems are examined . Some perspectives Press (1996). xiv + 453 pages. ISBN 0-521- on future water-resources management policy are 45766-1 (p/b) . Price: £21.95/US$ 37.95. ISBN formulated. Most of the existing methods and tech­ 0-521-45151-5 (h/b). Price: £60/US$ 90 . niques used for water-resources planning and opti­ mal operation are recommended for adaptation to The science of soil physics is hardly 50 years old, but non-stationary climatic and hydrological conditions . its application plays a major role in sustainable devel­ The second part of the book contains eight cli­ opment and management of natural resources. mate-change impact case-studies describing various Although a distinct discipline in its own right, soil approaches for solving specific problems in different physics develops its scientific concepts through the regions of the world. application of basic sciences (physics and physical In the book's concluding chapter, Z. Kacz­ chemistry, climatology, hydrology and soil mechanics) marek, K. M. Strzepek and L. Somly6dy summarize to solve the practical problems of diverse applied the viewpoints, approaches and methods presented, fields (agronomy, plant physiology, agricultural engi­ as well as the lessons derived from the case-studies. neering, water management and erosion control). Recommendations on how economic and technical A sustainable management system is one that pro­ criteria and procedures for water-resources planning duces goods and services of value to humans without should be altered or re-evaluated in the light of likely degrading the physical resource base or polluting the climate change are discussed. The book concludes environment. This paradigm is achieved by drawing with proposals concerning research needs aimed at on basic concepts of ecology and newly emerging closing gaps in our knowledge on water-resources tools of data analysis and interpretation, including management in the face of an uncertain environment. remote-sensing, GIS, fuzzy logic and the neural net­ This book does not propose a single, preferred work. Through interactive processes with other sci­ methodology for solving water-resources problems in ences, soil physics plays a pivotal role in enhancing the face of climatic uncertainty because water prob­ agricultural productivity, improving water quality, miti­ lems are highly site-specific. The authors concentrate, gating the greenhouse effect and facilitating the sus­ therefore, on concepts and interrelated thinking. In tainable use of soil and water resources. In that con­ each chapter, they offer a systematic viewpoint on a text, this book is a timely and valuable addition to the range of possible state-of-the-art methods, models growing literature in a rapidly developing field . and approaches. Conclusions are based on existing The introductory chapter on soil composition knowledge and international experience . Much effort deals with soil classification, particle-size distribution has been devoted to the editing process to avoid the and its assessment, porosity and pore size distribu­ book becoming a collection of disparate chapters tion , clay fraction and its mineralogical characteris-

297 tics, and surface area. Computations of weight/vol­ 3H, 14C and dl3C, 18Q, and Cl and artificially added ume relationship and expressions of soil moisture tracers such as 51Cr, ssco, 82Br and 131 1. content on gravimetric and volumetric bases are Three chapters concern applications of soil given, as well as swe lling properties and distribution hydrology. One deals with management of soil water of charge on clay minerals in relation to ionic and is a comprehensive treatise of subjects covering: composition, size of cations and lattice structure. control of infiltration; catchment hydrology; manage­ Examples of applications of Stoke's Law to determi­ ment of overland flow; runoff hydrographs; soil evap­ nations of particle size distribution are provided, with oration and its control; irrigation; and drainage. One specific examples depicting the use of appropriate on pollutant transport includes: chemicals sorbed on units. suspended load and different scenarios dealing with The remaining 13 chapters can be thematically pollutant enrichment; soil sal inity and its control; and grouped into two sections: soil-water and its manage­ lea ching requirements for management of salt-affected ment; and soil structure , compaction and erosion. soils, which are discussed in term s of miscible and Nine chapters deal with the topics of soi l hydrology, immiscible displacement. The chapter on plant-water chemical transport in soil, and plant-water relation­ relations addresses such important topics as water ships. These chapters are , however, not arranged in uptake by plant roots, water availability, solute trans­ a continuous sequence because basic aspects of soi l­ port to roots, evapotranspiration and the principles of wate r retention and movement are immediately fol­ water budget computation for grassland, irrigated lowed by those dealing with soil mechanics and struc­ land and forests. tural ·and rheological properties. The second major section of the book has three The chapter which deals with principles of water chapters dealing with soil structure and mechanics. retention in soil describes the matrix potential, using The chapter on soil structure, its attributes and assess­ a tensiometer, and different units of its expression, ment methods, deals with mechanisms of aggregation, also deals with the basic properties of water and pore space and its assessment from moisture charac­ water characteristics in dry soil. Water absorption iso­ teristics curves and capillarity principles, permeability, therms of different clay minerals are explained and an and factors affecting structural stability. The chapter example is given of calculating the matrix potential on soil deformation includes consistency and com­ from the relative vapour pressure. The principle of pactability and explains the principles of soil strength, capillarity, swelling, and ca use s of hysteresis in soil­ compression, compaction, swell-sh rink properties and moisture characteristics are described in terms of the cracking. The one on soil erosion and conservation properties of clay colloids. One chapter addresses in describes in detail predictive models with their merits a comprehensive manner the methods of measure­ and limitations for both wind- and water-erosion pro­ ment of soil moi sture content and potential , as well cesses; a major highlight is the section describing as all methods (e.g. neutron moderation technique, principles of soil conservation against erosion by wind time-domain-reflectometry, tensiometry, pressure plate and water. extractors, absorbent materials (gypsum blocks) and The third edition has numerous features of pro­ vapour pressure). A useful feature is the comparative fessiona l intere st. The subject matter is presented in evaluation of different methods regarding their suita­ a manner that is of interest to a broad range of pro­ bility for use in the field. fessionals , including agronomists, plant physiologists, Principles of water movement in soi l are defined pedologists, hydrologists, agroclimatologists, geol­ in the following chapter, including Darcy's law, with ogists, chemists and physicists. The book deals with particular emphasis on the effect of porosity and basic principles that apply as much to production pore-size distribution. The section dealing with flow agricu lture as to environment quality. The use of SI through saturated and unsaturated soils deals with units makes it easier to follow all themes, including three-dimensional flow using partial differential equa­ hydrology and mechanics. Each subject is thoroughly tions and meets the needs of higher-level students. explained , using appropriate mathematical fun ctions, The concepts of hydraulic conductivity and diffusivity tables, illustrations and graphs. Each chapter has an are described for homogeneous and anisotropic por­ extensive li st of references . ous media, and under isothermal and temperature The central theme of the book is soil hydrology, gradient conditions. Another chapter deals with the and other topics are covered only to the extent that distribution of water in soil and explains the principles they relate to soil-water retention and movement. The of horizontal and vertical infiltration. Mathematical geographical scope of the literature surveyed is lim­ functions of water re-distribution following steady-state ited to regional coverage. An appropriate subtitle infiltration to a stationary water table, soil evapora­ could have been "Hydrological properties and plant­ tion , water percolation through a layered profile and water relations". Its presentation and effectiveness infiltration when supply is limited as in sprinkler irriga­ cou ld be greatly improved by providing numerical tion systems, are thoroughly covered . Different models example s with appropriate solutions. The entire book of infiltration are also discussed. has hardly a dozen numerical examples, while each The themes discussed in the chapter on ground­ chapter should have a dozen examples, as well as water in soils and aquifers are of interest to hydrogeolo­ additional problems for students to work on . The gists and geohydrologists. The mathematics of pumping book is also heavy on theoretical treatment of the through boreholes and drawdown is explained at an subject matter. Further emphasis on applications to advanced level. Field measurement of hydraulic conduc­ practical problems of management of soil-water and tivity, transmissivity and other soil and aquifer character­ temperature regimes, minimizing risks of pollutant istics are also dealt with. One chapter is devoted to the transport in groundwater, reclaiming salt-affected and use of isotopes and other tracers in studying groundwa­ polluted soils, and restoring eroded and degraded ter movement and discusses natural tracers such as lands would be extremely helpful. There are only five

298 photographs/ pictures in the whole book; some topics port equation is considered for this purpose . The cou ld be easily explained by the use of appropriate parameters of the equation can be evaluated by some pictures and schematics. procedures of identification which are presented. Taking into consideration the comprehensive A few papers relate to flows in porous media. and in-depth theoretical treatment of the subject, this They deal with Newtonian and non-Newtonian fluids, book represents a major reference work on advanced and also with one- and multi-phase flow in different topics. lt is strongly recommended for researchers, structure s of porous media. One paper explains how graduate students and practitioners of soi l physics, the structure of porous media affects hydrodynamical as well as of agricultural engineering, soil hydrology dispersion. Some papers deal with flows in fractured and agroclimatology. carbonate rocks, fractured porous media subjected to undrained earth tide loading and flows in variable R. LAL saturated fracture-rock matrix system. The book offers new developments in mathe­ Computer Methods and Water Resources Ill. Y. matical modelling of water quality. One of them con­ Abousleiman , C. A. Brebbia , A. H.-D. Cheng, D. cerns the kinetic model of ch lorine decay in a com­ Ouazar (Eds.). Computational Mechanics plex pipe geometry distribution system. The model Publications, Southampton (1996). 528 pages; describes three mechanisms of ch lorine disappear­ numerous figures and equations. ISBN 1- ance, namely: reaction s of chlorine in the aqueous 85312-424-9. Price: US $239. phase and in an adjacent molecular layer, and tran s­ This book comprises the papers presented at the port wi th reaction of chlorine through time and space . Third International Conference on Computer Methods There are a few other models for distribution reser­ and Water Resources (CMWR Ill) held in Beirut, Leba­ voir water quality and unidirectional multiport diffu ser non, from 26 to 28 September 1995. lt contains con­ in deep ambient layers. tributions on a wide range of water resource s topics The book also treats numerical methods and and computational techniques, including geographical genetic algorithms. A new software package is pre­ information systems, related to groundwater and net­ sented for finite element groundwater modelling of work management, water resource s for both planning multiple-aquifer steady-state and transient flow. The and management, optimization techniques in pollu­ package contains grid-generating programs, which tion, groundwater flow, open channel and pipe flow, enable triangular irregular networks with variable genetic algorithms, porous media flow, flow in frac­ node spacing to be made. The use of genetic algo­ tures, expert systems and education, hydrology and rithms for engineering optimization is gainin g in popu­ numerical methods. larity. Genetic algorithms are computationally simple The 53 papers are grouped in eleven sections . but powerful in their search for a global optimal solu­ The section "Geographical information systems" con­ tion and two applications are presented. The first is tains three papers addressing building and maintain­ for groundwater parameter identification in terms of ing water resources databases. Papers related to boundary condition and hydraulic properties from open channel flows are mainly devoted to unsteady observed heads. The second is related to optimi za­ flows. A few concern the numerical solution of the tion of a variable-speed centrifugal pump operation one- and two-dimensiona l Saint-Venant equations, with system. The genetic algorithms were tested on a or without the pollution equation. pumping system in a mining area in the northern part The section "Groundwater" contains five papers. of South Africa . Two are related to large engineering projects. The Summarizing, the book provides insight into a first refers to a model of the largest groundwater sys­ new development in computer methods and water tem s of the Sahara, which enables simulation of the resources and seems primarily to address researchers impact of climatic change on the aquifer system dur­ in the field. ing the last 8 000 years and the drawdown by artifi­ W. CzERNUSZENKO cial extraction. According to the model, natural dis­ charge of the whole system has decreased from Vital Signs 1996-1997-The trends that are shaping 1 2 400 km3 yr' to 500 km3 yr , whereas the planned our future , by L. R. BROWN, C. FLAVIN , H. KANE; artificial extraction in Egypt and Libyan Arab Jama­ L. STARKE (Ed.). Earthscan Publications, London hiriya was about 5 000 km3 yr1. The second refers (1996). 169 pages; numerous diagrams. ISBN to plans for building a high-speed railway line in Ger­ 1-85383-036 7-3. Price: £12 .95. many, for which a numerically coupled 2D/3D station­ ary finite element groundwater model was developed . This handbook sets out to be "more useful than ever The reader finds several papers dealing with typ­ in allowing policy-makers, journalists, and academic ical hydrological problems suc h as statistical distribu­ researchers to chart and understand the major eco­ tions of extreme events, risk and reliability, behaviour logical, economic, and social forces affecting the of the runoff coefficient and the design and rational­ world" (p. 11). The reader looking for suc h informa­ ization of the hydrological network. The section tion finds in the six-pa ge overview a useful collection "Water resources planning and management" con­ of facts and figures in the tradition of the Club of tains seven papers devoted to a wide spectrum of Rome: what is happening in the areas of resource applications from hydrometric network rationalization poverty and degradation as underpinnings of world and efficient use of the world 's water resources to development? Some social issues such as public model s for reservoir planning and design. health and war are also included, providing quick The book also deals with the mathematical mod­ access to information which is more difficult to tra ck. elling and numerical simulation of a dispersal pollutant In characteristic fa shion, author Lester Brown­ in groundwater flows. The adjective-dispersive trans- "the world's leading modern Malthusian" (The Economist.

299 16 November 1996)- does not consider poverty superior choice afforded the rich.) Recent geopoliti­ among the "most basic indicators affecting human cal changes feature prominently where applicable. welfare" . Surprisingly and most interesting to Some indicators lacking in the 1996-1997 edi­ meteorologists, climate is given the rank of "most tion have been covered earlier: media (1993, 1995), pervasive indicator of all" (p . 15) as Mr Brown links literacy (1993), and military expenditure (1992). global warming to shortfalls in the world's grain har­ Tourism, corruption, political prisoners, child labour, vest as well as to violent storms which, in turn, cre­ integration of minorities, migrants, religiosity, family ate major problems in the insurance industry. While life and hygiene would be some good choices for this is an interesting phenomenon and an easy-to· "Social trends" or "Special fe atures" in future editions. measure indicator, it is doubtful that it affects global Vital Signs deserves credit for the breadth of human welfare more than the output of goods and information covered and reader-friendliness. Balance services! The gains towards alleviating poverty made and depth of information have to come from other possible through economic growth are immediately sources which, unfortunately, are not, genera lly, as discounted by pointing out the adverse effects of easy to use. resource use. Thus, while Brown terms a 3. 7 per cent rate of growth in 1995 as "impressive", providing the Hannelore GRI SKo-KELLEYand Timothy G. KELLEY growing population with a 2 per cent per caput increase in goods and services, he immediately notes Hydrology of Disasters. V.P. Singh . Kluwer Academic that "it also increased the unsustainable demands on Publishers, Dordrecht (1996); xiv +442 pages. the Earth's natural systems and resources-crop­ ISBN 0-7923-4092-2. Price: US$ 215. lands, aquifers, fisheries, rangelands, and forests" "The General Assembly of the United Nations passed (p. 17). a resolution on 11 December 1987, designating the Keeping in mind the particular limitations of any 1990s as the International Decade for Natural Di sas­ narrowly environmentalist world view and the fact ter Reduction. This resolution has served as a cata­ that respectable scientific theories exist which lyst in promotion of international cooperation in the explain global temperature rise outside the dooms­ field of natural disaster reduction." lt is with these fit­ day scenario of global warming, the user will find ting words that Vijay Singh starts his preface to his Vital Signs interesting and extremely easy to use . compilation of papers on the hydrological aspects of The main body (Part One) consists of 33 key indi­ disasters . cators presented on two pages each: one of text, lt is characteristic of the successes of the Inter­ one of tables and figures. They are grouped as food national Decade to date that they have been achieved trends (7), agricultural resource trends (3), energy largely as a result of individual efforts at loca l level, trends (7), atmospheric trends (4), economic trends rather than international collaboration on a global (3), transportation trends (2), social trends (5) and scale . Prof. Singh and the authors of the chapters of military trends (2). Most of them have been covered this volume have put in a lot of individual effort. They in one or more of the four previous editions of this have also remained true to the spirit of the Decade serie s. In Part Two-"Special features"-12 other by trying to bring together information on disasters issues are presented in more depth: agriculture (new of different types so as to encourage an integrated in this edition), economics, environment, and society. approach to their mitigation. Endnotes follow for all items. A similar attempt was made by WMO right at the Most of the information appears to be well doc­ start of the Decade; the result being the publication umented, but analysi s is shallow-probably necessi­ of a book with the identical title (see reference). lt is tated by the brevity of presentation of each issue . lt appropriate that this is the first reference in Prof. is questionable , then, that the book will allow readers Singh's introductory chapter and it is good to see that to understand the issues presented. "Grain stocks a second book has been published on this important drop to all-time low", for example , fits neatly into an topic at the mid-point of the Decade. alarmist scenario based on global warming, but fails We are presented with a series of 13 papers to discuss the fact that the considerable cost of written by a total of 19 authors from nine countries stockhold ing in the 1980s was paid by agricultural on topics ranging from "disasters: natural or man­ commodity programmes in the USA and the Euro­ made" to "mud and debris flow", and from "saltwater pean Union . Because of their inefficiency, these pro­ intrusion" to "extreme droughts". The aim: "to provide grammes have since been dismantled, but set-aside a discussion of hydrologica l aspects of various types areas in these countries can be brought back into of natural disasters", is laudable. lt is also ambitious production when grain prices become attractive to and, regrettably, not fully achieved. farmers producing at their own risk. While this fact is The 13 chapters are not at all homogeneous: mentioned later in the book under "World grainland they differ widely in length, format and content. Some area drops", there is no cross-reference that would papers offer discussions of current issues, such as enable the reader to understand how these agricu l­ the potential impact of climate change on hydrologi­ tural indicators are interrelated. The same is true for cal disasters, others present detailed mathematical "Decl ine in fertilizer use halts". formulations of phenomena, such as that on darn­ lt is satisfying to note that information presented breach floods. The chapter on winds considers only spans the globe, e.g. "Voter turnout covers many the problem of data and not the threat actually posed African countries" and "Bicycle production up", which by extreme winds. In fact, it is difficult to see extreme gives details for Asian and Latin American as well as winds as a hydrological phenomenon. Some papers Western counties. (Judging by the Indian experience, consider how the disasters might be mitigated , oth­ the bicycle remains the poor man's vehicle gladly ers do not touch on the question. The major hydrolog­ exchanged for a scooter rather than the ecologically ical disasters of flood and drought are covered in le ss

300 than 100 pages, while avalanche dynamics are greenhouse effect was constructed whilst he was a afforded nearly 90 pages. Tsunami are mentioned in teacher and later professor at the Stockholm Hbg­ relation to volcanic eruptions, but are not discussed skola (1891-1903), an important factor in its devel­ in the brief seven pages on earthquakes. opment was, as Crawford shows, the lively scientific One further problem is the use of the word "dis­ forum provided by the Stockholm Physics Society, aster" to refer both to the natural or man-made event which was founded in 1891, on his initiative. Notable itself and to the destruction and loss of life which among its members were meteorologists Nils result. The United Nations system has agreed to refer Ekholm and Vilhelm Bjerknes, oceanographer Otto to the former as a "hazard", which then interacts with Pettersson and geologist Arvid Hi.igbom. the "vulnerable" man-made or natural environment to In the preface, Elisabeth Crawford tells how, as produce a "disaster". More careful use of terminology a young girl in Sweden, she heard much about would have avoided confusion as to what can and Arrhenius from her grandmother, who had , in turn , what cannot be prevented. Similarly, one can question heard stories about him from her two aunts (Craw­ the value of such statements as "earthquakes occur ford's great-great-aunts). When the aunts lived near in areas that are seismically active" and doubt the the Stockholm Academy of Sciences, where one of truth of "droughts are common in low rainfall areas of them worked as a secretary, Arrhenius was a neigh­ the world". bour. Like many others in Sweden in the early 20th In summary, therefore, it is somewhat disap­ century, the aunts had been initiated into science by pointing that the editor did not arrange to have these reading Varldarnas Utveckling {Worlds in the Making), disparate papers revised to a more common format the popular book on cosmic physics and cosmology and edited to a uniform style. lt is nonetheless a valu­ which was written by Arrhenius and first published in able collection on a vital topic. lt is not advertised as 1906. Crawford also tells of her friendship with a textbook and it would not serve well as such, but it Arrhenius's daughter and of how her knowledge of certainly "will be useful to faculty members and grad­ his life and career widened recently when the uate students, research engineers and scientists", as archives of the Academy of Sciences were opened is claimed, and can be recommended for such use. and she came to realize that he had been for many lt is doubtful whether "it will be of special value years a key figure in the selection of Nobellaureates. to the UN organizations", except in one important He was a member of the Nobel Committee for way: it may well help to encourage further work on a Physics from 1900 to 1927 and Director of the broader approach to disaster prevention and the ulti­ Nobel Institute for Physical Chemistry from 1905 mate goal of saving of lives and property damage. until shortly before his death. From the preface, which provides a summary of Reference Arrhenius's interests and achievements, and from the Starosolszky, b. and 0. M. Melder (Eds.), 1989: introduction, entitled "Arrhenius the man", we learn Hydrology of Disasters, James and James, that he worked extremely hard, sometimes 12-14 London. hours a day, and kept up an extensive correspon­ dence with friends and colleagues around the world. Arthur J. ASKEW We learn, too, that he had a facility for generating ideas, coupled with an aptitude for handling num­ Arrhenius-From Ionic Theory to the Greenhouse bers. His attitudes to experimentation were, how­ Effect, by Elisabeth CRAWFORD. Watson Publishing ever, complex. Despite his love of controversy, he International, Nantucket, USA (1996). xiii + 320 had an unusual capacity for making friends, but a pages. ISBN 0-88135-166-0. Price: US$ 49.95. few of his friendships turned sour, notably that with This is the first biography of Svante August Arrhenius the chemist Walther Nernst, whose Nobel Prize (for (1859-1927) published in the English language. In it, Chemistry) was blocked by Arrhenius for 15 years. the reader is taken critically, analytically and lucidly The transformation from friendship to enmity through the life and achievements of a Nobel laure­ between the two men is fully discussed and docu­ ate who is remembered principally as a physical mented in the book . chemist but left his mark on other branches of sci­ Part I of the book is entitled "Ionic Theory" and ence, too. As a physical chernist, he gained interna­ contains seven chapters. lt covers the period of 32 tional recognition for his theory of electrolytic disso­ years from Arrhenius's birth near Uppsala to his ciation. In immunochemistry, he advanced knowledge appointment as a teacher of physics at the Stockholm of serum therapy. In geophysics and cosmology, he Hbgskola. Thus, it covers his education at the Uni­ was interested in volcanoes and earthquakes, galax­ versity of Uppsala, including his undergraduate stud­ ies and nebulae, glacial epochs, magnetic storms ies in mathematics , physics and chemistry and the and the aurora borealis. debacle over his doctoral dissertation, which led to He also left his mark on climatology. In the his leaving Uppsala and continuing his work on elec­ words of Elisabeth Crawford, he was "probably the trolytic dissociation, first in Stockholm and then in one who invented the greenhouse metaphor to Germany, where he received the credit for his work describe how carbon dioxide and water vapour in the which had not been forthcoming in Sweden. At Uppsala, atmosphere trap heat emanating from solar radiation as Crawford mentions, Arrhenius became friendly with and re-radiate it downward to create a thermal enve­ Hi.igbom, Pettersson and Ekholm and also met the lope around the globe". lt is often overlooked, as she distinguished meteorologist H. H. Hildebrandsson, who pointed out, that he elaborated his hypotheses and chaired the jury for his doctoral disputation and with theories concerning the effects of greenhouse gases whom relations never became cordial. on atmospheric temperatures in the context of gla­ In Part 11, which is entitled "The Cosmic Physi­ ciation, not global warming . Though his model of the cist" and contains four chapters, Crawford places

301 Arrhenius's work on cosmology, geophysics and for decades, however, their applicability has not been climatology in the context of the economic and cul­ broad. Until recently, lack of computational power tural changes which took place in Sweden in the was the primary barrier to the common use of dis­ 1880s and 1890s, especia lly the marriage of sci­ tributed models. This barrier has now disappeared, ence and exploration which was such a feature of yet there are still other critical impediments, such as Scandinavia in the late 19th century. In Chapter 8, lack of data and gaps in our knowledge of processes. she also tells the story of Arrhenius's brief marriage Socio-technical difficulties are another important bar­ to Sofia Rudbeck, a chemistry graduate working at rier: models put demands upon availability of data the Hogskola. In Part Ill, which is entitled "The Last and knowledge that individual organizations with nar­ Battle: Immunochemistry" and also contain s four row interest area cannot fulfil. Also, traditional educa­ chapters, Crawford covers Arrhenius's work in bio­ tion and training are not adequate to apply multi-layer chemistry and his conflict over toxin-antitoxin reac­ distributed approaches readily. The result is that the tions with the immunologist Paul Ehrlich (who use of distributed models is significantly lower at pre­ received the Nobel Prize for Medicine in 1908). The sent than was expected . part entitled "Epilogue and conclusions" covers the This book on distributed hydrological modelling last years of Arrhenius's life and provides details of contains 14 chapters written by an international team the many honours he received. At the end of the of authors with considerable experience in the area of book, there is a copious set of notes for each chap­ development and use of distributed models. lt covers ter, an extensive bibliography and a comprehensive a broad range of topics, ranging from the philosophy index. of modelling to technical matters and applications. A Maybe the title of the book is not quite right, review of definitions and concepts used in distributed given that Arrhenius moved from ionic theory to the modelling is provided, including such aspects as greenhouse effect and then on to immunochemistry, choice of model, construction, calibration and valida­ but this is a niggle. Eli sabeth Crawford is to be con­ tion. Modelling protocols, i.e. seq uence of steps in gratulated on a tour de force of scholarly writing, in model development and application, are presented. the course of which she has coped extremely well Crucial points in the application of distributed with a problem she pointed out in the preface, that of models is the availability and quality (accuracy, relia­ needing to explain scientific concepts to the uniniti­ bility and representativeness) of data. As large amounts ated as well as to scientists not familiar with all the of space-covering data are needed, the existing net­ fields embraced by Arrhenius. The book is well pro­ work densities may be inadequate. Not even recent duced and almost devoid of proof-reading lapses. lt densities, however, can be taken for granted in the contains 14 well-chosen black-and-white photo­ long term; hydrological observation networks are graphs, mainly of Arrhenius and the people who were shrinking in many countries. Remotely sensed data most closely associated with him. The story of his are potentially of much use in distributed modelling, life and work is fascinating. The book is highly and weather radar and satellite information are also recommended. tackled in two contributions in the book. One chapter deals with geographic information systems (GIS), now M. WALKER J. a natural complement of distributed modelling. A number of applications are presented, such as Distributed Hydrological Modelling, edited by M. B. a case-study carried out by an international team on Abbott and C. Refsgaard. Kluwer Academic J. the Danube in the Gabcikovo area, famous for the Publishers, Dordrecht (1996). ix + 321 pages. Slovak-Hungarian dispute, and another one on the ISBN 0-7923-4042-6. Price: US$ 158. Wierdenseveld (the Netherlands). Several examples in the book refer to both quantity and quality aspects of Distributed models are mathematical models that groundwater issues (e. g. contamination, landfill and take account of spatial variations in variables and leakage). parameters. They lend themselves well to simulating Although the basic families of distributed models behaviour of hydrological processes which are area­ discussed in the book, i.e. SHE and MIKE, were origi­ covering and possess a spatial structure. Distributed nally developed for water quantity analysis, they are hydrological modelling may therefore contribute to now being coupled with other components to describe the fullest use of available knowledge and observa­ water-quality aspects such as eutrophication, agro­ tions. That is, if one has "to do everything that is chemistry and sediment transport. Much information reasonably possible" to understand, simulate, model, on available software worldwide is also provided, cov­ and predict the behaviour of complex systems with ering an interdisciplinary perspective (e . g. multi­ water components, distributed models are a valid species reactive transport, biodegradation, nutrients alternative. They may use all available data (carto­ and pesticide transport, soil erosion and geology). graphic, satellite, hydrological, network observations, Extensive literature reviews and lists of references are vegetation, crops, agricultural practices, water given after every chapter. abstractions, pollution inputs or geological types) and Distributed models provide a potentially more all knowledge about hydrology, meteorology, plant adequate representation of the reality than lumped physiology, soil physics and sediment transport. Typi­ approaches. They are at least more physically based cally, distributed models are physically-based, i.e. than the lumped descriptions dominating hitherto. For their core consists of encoded equations of mathe­ a number of simpler tasks, however, lumped parame­ matical physics describing conservation and trans­ ter models are quite sufficient, giving results gener­ port laws. Alternatively, a geostatistical approach may ally as good as physically based distributed models be used or a joint stochastic-deterministic approach. would do at a considerably higher cost. If the sole Even if distributed hydrological models have existed objective is to model rainfall-runoff, or to calculate

302 discharge in one cross-section , then the use of ade­ nomenon which is often referred to as El Nifio, has quate simpler model s is recommended. Distributed been known in Peru for more than a century because models, however, lend themselves better than of the regular warming of its coasta l waters and lumped models to several more complex problems, in severe environmental and socio-economic impacts particular those of a multidisciplinary type . associated with the phenomenon: the 1972/ 1973 El lt is necessary to raise caveats and recognize Niiio, for example, was associated with the total the limitations of the current generation of distributed collapse of the Peruvian fishing indu stry. model s. There are theoretical problem s related to The book Currents of Change, El Niiio's heterogeneity, credibility, range of validity, applicabil­ Impact on Climate and Society, by Michael Glantz, ity and accuracy. The co mparison of observed and provides integrated scientific and socio-economic measured processes demonstrate that, in many information on El Niiio phenomena . In it, the cases, the simulation skill is still problematic . Lack of discussion of El Niiio is divided into three major physical realism was pointed out when describing cer­ sections, the first being devoted to basic concepts tain processes. Validation against internal state varia­ and linkages between the phenomena and the ble s is important but not always possible. Sub-catch­ Southern Oscillation, together with a detailed ment paramaterization is difficult. When limitations of discussion of the historical evolution of the increas­ descriptive equations are recognized, it is necessary ing interest in El Niiio. to introduce more complex paramaterizations with The second section of the book presents the new parameters. One should be cautious of non-docu­ life and times of El Niiio episodes. The 1982/ 1983 mented claims about the capability and validity of dis­ event, the most severe so far this century, considers tributed models and modelling. Distributed models the worldwide dimensions of the environmental and narrow the range of uncertainty in results, yet uncer­ socio-economic impacts of El Niiio, with special tainty analysis, which can be straightforward in lumped reference to parts of Africa , Australia, Indonesia, models, is a typical problem in distributed models. South America and the USA. The current potential to The discussion paper ("friendly critique"), provide skillful forecasts of El Niiio seve ral months authored by Dr Beven , followed by comments of the ahead in the light of the increased need for El Niiio editors and then by the author's response to these information and applications in the early warning of comments, constitutes a rare element in edited the associated environmental and socio-economic books of this type. This lively polemic is a valuable disasters is also addressed. component and pinpoints the weaknesses and The last part of the book discusses why strengths of distributed modelling. different societies should have intermittent interest in There is no doubt that distributed hydrological El Niiio. lt also presents current international efforts models hold considerable potential for the future. to enhance the applications of El Niiio knowledge in Their present applicability is, however, still somewhat regions having strong El Niiio signals. limited . What is required now, is what authors call The book is written in simple and user-friendly fourth generation modelling systems (user-friendly language throughout. Although the science of El Niiio software products) and fifth generation products in thi s book is not exhaustive, it is adequate for most ("intelligent" modelling systems designed for techni­ policy-makers, managers , planners , the public and cally skilled but non-expert users). for most potential users of El Niiio information. lt The book gives food for thought for a hydrol­ does not require prior knowledge of El Niiio and is ogist who wishes to keep abreast of recent develop­ one of the few existing attempts in the literature to ments in his area and for specia li sts in other disci­ narrow the current wide bridge between El Niiio plines who have a significant hydrology component in researchers, users and the public on the subject. their work. The need to educate policy-makers and the public on the value, effective use and cost-benefits KUNOZEWICZ Z. W. of El Niiio information is also crucial in optimizing the use of El Niiio information. El Niiio researchers must Currents of Change-EI Nino's Impact on Climate and not forget, however, to educate themselves about Society, by M. H. GLANTZ . Cambridge University the various needs of the multidisciplinary users. Press (1996). xiii + 194 pages; numerous With optimum utilization of related information figures . ISBN 0-521-57659-8 (p/b). Price: and enhanced education of society and stakeholders, £14.95(US$ 19.95). ISBN 0-521-49580-6 (h/b). El Niiio could be the gift of science to the 21st Price: £40 (US$ 59.95). ce ntury. Extreme climate anomalies, such as drought. floods , L. A. OGALLO cold/hot spells, etc., are normal components of natural climate variability and occur in all parts of the world, every year. Some, however, are mild , short­ New books received lived , and affect only a few areas. Others are severe, Microphysics of Clouds and Precipitation persist over a long period of time and have global dimensions. (second revised and enlarged edition with The recurrent warming of the sea surface over an introduction to cloud chemistry and the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean is cloud electricity). by H. R. PRU PPACHER and one phenomenon which has gained a great deal of J. D. KLETI. Kluwer Academic Publishers, scientific and public attention in recent years as a re sult of evidence of significant linkages with world­ Dordrecht (1996). xx +954 pages; numerous wide extreme climate anomalies and associated figures and equations. ISBN 0-7923-4211-9. severe socio-economic consequences. The phe- Price: US$ 290.

303 The Impact of De sert Dust Across the Mediter­ 728 pages; numerou s figure s. ISBN 3- ranean . S. GUERZONI and R. CHE STER (Eds.). 540-61892-9. Price: DM 398. Kluwer Aca demic Publi shers, Dordrecht River Ice Jams. Spyros BELTAOS (Ed.). Water Resources (1996). xii + 389 pages; numerous table s Publication s, LLC, Englewood (1996). xvi + and figure s. ISBN 0-7923-4294-1. Price: 372 pages; numerous figures and illustra­ US$ 180. tions . ISBN 0-918334-87-X. Price: US$ 58. Argument in the Greenhouse-The International Irrigation Maintenance and Operations Learning Economics of Controlling Global Warming, Process, by G. V. SKOGERBOE and G. P. MERKLEY . by N. MABEY, S. HALL, C. SMITH and S. GUPTA. Water Resources Publications, LLC , Engleton Routledge, London (1997). xiii + 442 pages; (1996). x + 358 pages; numerous figures . numerous figures. ISBN 0-415-14908-8 ISBN 0-918334-92-6. Price: US$ 65. (h/b). Price: £50 . ISBN 0-415-14909-6 (p/b) . Price: £15.199. Cases in Climate Change Policy-Political Reality in the European Union . U. COLLIERand R. E. £UROTRAC-Proceedings of £UROTRAC Sym­ UiFSTEDT (Eds.). Earthscan Publications, posium '96 (2 vols.). Patricia M. BORRELL, London (1997). xviiii + 204 pages . ISBN P. BORRELL, T. CviTAS, K. KELLY and W. SElLER 1-85383-414-9. Price : £19 .95. (Eds.). Computational Mechanics Publica­ tions , Southampton (1997). 1900 pages; Integration of Geographic Information Systems numerou s figures. ISBN 1-85312-496-8 and Remote Sensing. J. L. STAR, J. E. ESTES (set). Price : £325/US$ 495 . and K. C. McGwiRE (Eds.). Cambridge Univer­ sity Press (1997). xvii + 225 pages . ISBN 0- State of the World 1997-A Worldwatch Institute 521-44032-7 (h/b) . Price : £35/US$ 49.95. report on progress towards a sustainable society, by L. R. BROWN and others. Earthscan Turbulence in Fluids (third revi sed and enlarged Publications Ltd ., London (1997). xiii + 229 edition), by Marcel LESIEUR. Kluwer Academic pages. ISBN 1-85383-427-0. Price: £12.95. Publishers, Dordrecht (1997). xvi + 515 pages; colour plates and numerous equa­ The Sea Surface and Global Change . P. S. L1 ss tions . ISBN 0-7923-4415-4. Price: US$ 225 . and R. A. DucE (Eds.). Cambridge University Press (1997). xv +519 pages. ISBN 0-521- 56273-2 (h/b) . Price: £60/US$ 95. Book reviewers wanted! Working in meteorology, hydrology, clima­ Groundwater/ Surface Water Ecotones: Biologi­ tology, water resources, the environment or cal and Hydrological Interactions and a related field and interested in reviewing Management Options. Janine GIBERT , J. books occasionally for the WMO Bulletin? MATHIEU and F. FOURNIER (Eds.). Cambridge Want to know more details about titles, University Press (1997). xiii + 246 pages; length, deadlines, etc.? numerous figure s and diagrams. ISBN 0- 521-57254-1 (h/b). Price: £65/US$ 115. Then write to the Associate Editor, (see below) giving your full name and Regional Hydrological Response to Climate address (postal and electronic) and your Change. J. A. A. JONES, CHANGMING Llu , MING­ area of interest. The list of new books Ko Woo and HSIANG-TE KU NG (Eds.). Kluwer received, which is contained in each issue Academi c Publi shers, Dordrecht (1997). of the Bulletin, indicates the wide range of xviii + 429 pages. ISBN 0-7923-4329-8. subject matter available. Price: US$ 199. The book reviewed and a copy of the Climates of South Asia , by G. B. PANT and K. RUPA Bulletin containing your review will be KuMAR. John Wiley and Son s, Chichester your reward! (1997). xxiii + 320 pages; numerous figures. ISBN 0-471-94948-5. Price : £75/US$ 130. We are waiting to hear from you! Associate Editor, WMO Bulletin, World Third Millennium BC Climate Change and Old Meteorological Organization, Case postale World Collapse. H. NOZHET DALFES, G. KUKLA 2300, CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland. and H. WEI SS (Eds.). NATO ASI Series 1: Fax: (41 22) 733 09 82. Global Environmental Change , Vol. 49. E-mail: [email protected] Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg (1997). xiv +

304 CALENDAR OF COMING EVENTS (sessions to be held in Geneva, Switzerland, unless otherwise stated) 1997 4-14 August Commission for Climatology-twelfth session 26-28 August Conference on WCRP: Achievements, Benefits and Challenges

1-5 September Meeting of Experts on C02 Measurements (Melbourne, Australia) 1-19 September Summit of the Sea (St John's, Newfoundland, Canada) 8-12 September Fifth International Conference on Carbon Dioxide (Great Barrier Reef, Australia)

17-26 September Regional Association Ill (South America)-twelfth session (Salvad01; Brazil) 23-26 September Third European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM-97) (Lindau, Germany) 25- 27 September International Symposium on Emerging Trends in Hydrology (Roorkee, India)

29 Sept.-10 Oct. Marine Meteorology Training Course (Melbourne, Australia) 30 Sept.-3 Oct. Third General Conference for FRIEND ("FRIEND 97") (Postojna, Slovenia) 30 Sept.-6 Oct. RA I Tropical Cyclone Committee for the South-West Indian Ocean-thirteenth session (Mbabane, Swaziland) 6-10 October WMO Training Seminar on Environmental Emergency Response Activities for RAs Ill, IV and V (Montreal, Canada) 13-23 October Workshop on Effect of Human Disturbance on Nitrogen Cycle in Asia (Nanjing, China)

29-30 October The Physics of Climate (London, United Kingdom) 2-7 November First League of Arab States/WMO International Symposium on Sand and Dust Storms (Damascus, Syrian Arab Republic) 4-8 November Second Technical Conference on Management of MeteorologicaV Hydrometeorological Services in Asia (Macao) 11-14 November Third International Conference on the Mediterranean Coastal Environment (MEDCOAST 97) (Qawra, Malta) 11-15 November International Symposium on "Hydrometeorology Science and Practice-Present and Future" and exhibition "Hydrometeorology and Man" (St. Petersburg, Russian Federation)

23-29 November Fourth Meteorological Conference for Eastern and Southern Africa (Kampala, Uganda)

305 MEMBERS OF THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION * STATES (179) Afghanistan, Islamic State of Georgia Papua New Guinea Albania Germany Paraguay Algeria Ghana Peru Angola Greece Philippines Antigua and Barbuda Guatemala Poland Argentina Guinea Portugal Armenia Guinea-Bissau Qatar Australia Guyana Republic of Korea Austria Haiti Republic of Moldova Azerbaijan Honduras Republic of Yemen Bahamas Hungary Romania Bahrain Iceland Russian Federation Bangladesh India Rwanda Barbados Indonesia Saint Lucia Belarus Iran, Islamic Republic of Sao Tome and Principe Belgium Iraq Saudi Arabia Belize Ireland Senegal Ben in Israel Seychelles Bolivia Italy Sierra Leone Bosnia and Herzegovina Jamaica Singapore Botswana Japan Slovakia Brazil Jordan Slovenia Brunei Darussalam Kazakstan Solomon Islands Bulgaria Kenya Somalia Burkina Fa so Kuwait South Africa Burundi Kyrgyz Republic Spain Cambodia Lao People's Democratic Republic Sri Lanka Cameroon Latvia Sudan Canada Lebanon Suriname Cape Verde Lesotho Swaziland Central African Republ ic Liberia Sweden Chad Libyan Arab Jamahiriya Switzerland Chile Lithuania Syrian Arab Republic China Luxembourg Tajikistan Colombia Madagascar Thailand Comoros Ma lawi The former Yugoslav Republic of Congo Ma laysia Macedonia Cook Islands Maldives Togo Costa Rica Mali Tonga COte d'lvoire Malta Trinidad and Tobago Croatia Mauritania Tunisia Cuba Mauritius Turkey Cyprus Mexico Turkmenistan Czech Republic Micronesia, Federated States of Uganda Democratic People's Republic Monaco Ukraine of Korea Mongolia United Arab Em irates Denmark Morocco United Kingdom of Great Britain Djibouti Mozambique and Northern Ireland Dominica Myanmar United Republic of Tanzania Dominican Republic Namibia United States of America Ecuador Nepal Uruguay Egypt Netherlands Uzbekistan El Salvador New Zealand Vanuatu Eritrea Nicaragua Venezuela Estonia Niger Viet Nam, Socialist Republic of Ethiopia Nigeria Western Samoa Fiji Niue Yugoslavia Finland Norway Za ire France Oman Zambia Gabon Pakistan Zimbabwe Gambia Panama TERRITORIES (6) British Caribbean Territories Hong Kong Netherlands Antilles and Aruba French Polynesia Macao New Caledonia • On 15 May 1997

306 ~!l"£0"C:9C:·S~-H:+ :xe:1 dnoJD uauoz 'i dd!:>l oo·oa"69<:·s~·~£+ :·1aJ. 111aa wv 009<: 1N S!N3VIIm::USNI ~ LOS xos "O"d :>3.L-I:>S .. • Low CosT ATMOSPHERIC MEASUREMENTS IN THE PALM OF YouR HAND

Until now, if you wanted accurate MICROTOPS 11 ·c"~ ~/U" ;c· ~ ... ii;i"O:cr·t:;'B' measurements of the total ozone column, total water vapor or aerosol optical depth at a variety of wave­ lengths you had to invest tens of thousands of dollars. And, the equipment wouldn't be very portable. The new customizable MICROTOPS 11 concentrates measurement power in the palm of your hand at a fraction of the cost of conventiona l equipment.

MICROTOPS 11 delivers accurate readings at the touch of a button. Just aim the meter at the sun; align its image in the cross-hairs; and push the button.

Global Positioning Satellites (GPS) By util izing GPS, the portability of MICROTOPS 11 doesn't compromise data accuracy, even on a moving ship or other vehicle. The GPS option p lugs into MICROTOPS 11 , automatica lly updating position every 2 seconds.

Customized to fit your needs

The MICROTOPS 11 ozonometer can be modified to measure any 5 wavelengths. This allows it to be used as a Sunphotometer or abbreviated Spectroradiometer. ~liAR LIGHT CO ~ 721 Oak Lane, Philadelphia, PA 19126-3342 USA Telephone: (215) 927-4206 • Fax: (215) 927-6347 E-MAIL: [email protected] • WWW: http: / / www.solar.com N AVAIR / GPS utilizes the navigation signals from the Global Positioning System to provide re liable, accurate synoptic sounding data under all weather conditions, anywhere, at all times. The cost/ benefit ratio of AIR's NAVAIR/ GPS technology means affordable systems and radiosondes for all budgets. FLEXIBILITY: NAVAIR / GPS ground stations can be configured for use with AIR's GPSondes, GPS dropwindsondes, or GPS rocketsondes to provide re li able rawinsonde soundings with the ground station either fixed or in a moving vehicle . GPS windfinding is combined with AIR 's high-accuracy pressure, temperature and relative humidity sensors to produce precise atmospheric data.

APPLICATIONS: • National Weather Service Synoptic Forecasts • Meteorological Research • Boundary Layer Research • Air Pollution Research • Hurricane Tracking • Emergency Response • Test­ Range Support • Refractive Index Measurement

ENTER THE FUTURE - NOW. To learn more about the GPS revolution in upper air soundings and how to upgrade your existing systems, contact: Atmospheric Instrumentation Research, Inc. 8401 Baseline Road • Boulder, Colorado 80303 USA PHONE: (303) 499-1701 • FAX: (303) 499-1767 ·~ Global Atmos~herics, Inc. Lightning Location and Protection, Atmospheric Research Systems GeoMet Data Services

The devastating effect of severe weather is a problem experienced in virtually every country world wide. Thunderstorm activity in particular takes its toll because the dangers associated with lightning can be accompanied by high winds, flooding, hail, and severe tornadoes.

Detecting, measuring and locating lightning has led to improved safety and reduced damage and loss in many applications.

Global Atmospherics In c., with lightning detection networks in over 33 countries, has provided local area systems and wide area coverage networks for the past 20 years to assist in protecting people and equipment. Please call for information, and the name of our representative in your country.

2705 E. Medina Road, Suite 111 Tucson, AZ 85706 In the US Toll Free 800-283-4557 Phone: 520-741-2838 Fax: 520-741-2848

The hydrogen generator that provides hydrogen at usable pressure without a compressor!

The latest in Teledyne Brown Engineering Energy Systems line of hydrogen generators, ALTUS 20 is designed primarily for infiRting weather balloons. Unlike other gas generators intended :o0 """ for balloon inflation , ALTUS 20 provides hydrogen at usable and storable pressure ; no compressor necessary. - ~ Other features include: • Easy installation and maintenance. • Microprocessor control for automatic operation and superior reliability. • Electricity and water operation; no methanol or acid-metal supplies required. • Compact size and rugged con struction. For more information, contact us today! ..,"TELEDYNE BROWN ENGINEERING Energy Systems 10707 Gilroy Road, Hunt Valley, MD 21031 ·1311 U.S.A. 410-771-8600 FAX: 410-771-8618 Telex: 87780 CV-700 UPPER AIR SOUNDING SYSTEM

AUTOMATIC TRACKING REAL·TIME LOGGING AND PROCESSING COMPUTERIZED WMO MESSAGE GENERATION

CV·700 is a computerized radiotheodolite ground station for automatic tracking and data processing of digital and analog 1680 MHz radiosondes. CV·700 provides accurate wind velocity measurements from ground level to over 30 km. Wind data is reliable even at low elevation tracking angles. CV·700 is ideal for in-the-field meteorological measurement: e Fully portable e Fast deployment e Simple operation e Battery and/or mains power e Can be used in integrated NAVAIDIRDF system e Provisions for GPS upgrade

~hata ELECTRONICAL MEASUREMENT OF WIND AND PRECIPITATION

Continuity of the measurement principles­ Progress in comfort.

Measurement values • sampling by datalogger • storing on Memory-Card • evaluating by PC

12 Bit-ADC, 16 Bit-Counter, CMOS-Technology. Solid, reliable, comfortable.

WORLDWIDE TO BE ~ BECIS LAMBRECHT KUMATOLOGISCHE MESSTECHNIK W GOTTINGEN

Sensors Hand-held Instruments Telemetry Devices System Techniques for Meteorology and Environmental Protection

Wilh. lambrecht GmbH P.O. Box 2654 D-37016 Gottingen • Phone: 5 51 / 49 58-0 • Fax: 5 51 / 49 58 312 Fully automated upper air soundings The Va isala AUTOSONDE offers full automation of upper air observations and improved weather observation results. The AUTOSONDE prepares and activates the radiosonde, fills the balloon, launches it at preset time, receives the radiosonde signals automatically, and processes the signals into meteorological messages. The system operates fully automatica lly or can be remotely controlled. Now AUTOSONDE is enhanced with the GPS wind finding option- for truly global coverage.

Variety of wind finding options Offering very flexible choice of wind finding options, the same AUTOSONDE Sounding System ca n incorporate Loran-C, VLF-NAVAlD , and GPS wind finding methods. The operator ca n easily select the wind finding method to be used w ith the AUTOSONDE Graphical User Interface.

Easy upgrade to GPS Installed AUTOSONDE Systems can be upgraded to use the satellite-based GPS wind finding method without losing e .g. the original Navaid capabilities. Vaisa la's unique codeless GPS wind measurement solution offers high wind measurement accuracy and good vertical resolution.

Va isala Oy, P.O .Box 26, FIN-00421 Helsinki, Finland (+) YAISALA Tel. ( +358 9) 89491 Fax ( +358 9) 8949 210 , ( +358 9) 8949 227 Telex 122832 vsalafi Internet http://www. va isala.com

ABBREVIATIONS USED IN THE WMO BULLETIN

ACCAD Advisory Committee on Climate Applications and IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development (UN) Data(CCl) IGBP International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme ACMAD African Centre of Meteorological Applications for (ICSU) Development IGOSS Integrated Global Ocean Services System AGRHYMET Agrometeorology and operational hydrology and (IOC/WMO) their applications IGU International Geographical Union (ICSU) AREP Atmospheric Re.•;;earch and Environment Pro- IHP International Hydrological Programme (UNESCO) gramme (WMO) IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems BAPMoN Background Air Pollution Monitoring Network Analysis (WMO) IMO International Maritime Organization CA eM Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (WMO) IMO International Meteorological Organizatiot1 CA gM Commission for Agricultural Meteorology (WMO) (predecessor of WM 0) CAL Computer-aided learning IOC Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission CAS Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (WMO) (UNESCO) CBS Commission for Basic Systems (WMO) IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ccco Committee on Climate Changes and the Ocean (WMO/UNEP) (SCOR/IOC) ISO International Organization for Standardization CCD Convention to Combat Desertification ITU International Telecommunication Union CCI Commission for Climatology (WMO) IUGG International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics CCWCP Coordinating Committee for the World Climate (ICSU) Programme JSC Joint Scientific Committee for the WCRP CHy Commission for Hydrology (WMO) (WMO/ICSU) CILSS Permanent Inter-State Committee for Drought MDD Meteorological data distribution (METEOSAT) Control in the Sahel NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration (USA) CIMO Commission for Instruments and Methods of NIS Newly Independent States Observation (WMO) NMC National Meteorological Centre (WWW) CLICOM Climate computing (WMO) NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration CMM Commission for Marine Meteorology (WMO) (USA) COARE Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response NWP Numerical weather prediction Experiment OHP Operational Hydrology Programme (WMO) COS PAR Committee for Space Research (ICSU) RMC Regional Meteorological Centre (WWW) CSD Commission on Sustainable Development RMTC Regional Meteorological Training Centre (WMO) DCP Data-collection platform RSMC Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (WWW) DCS Data-collection system RTH Regional Telecommunication Hub (WWW) DRS DCP retransmission system SADC Southern African Development Community ECMWF European Centre for Medium Range Weather SCAR Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (ICSU) Forecasts SCOPE Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environ- ENSO EL Niflo!Southern Oscillation ment(ICSU) ESA European Space Agency SCOR Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research (ICSU) ESCAP Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the SCOSTEP Scientific Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Physics Pacific (UN) (ICSU) ETR Education and Training (WMO) SPARC Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United (WCRP) Nations STEND System for Technology Exchange for Natural Dis- FCCC Framework Convention on Climate Change (UN) asters (WMO) GAW Global Atmosphere Watch (WMO) TCP Tropical Cyclone Programme (WMO) GCIP GEWEX Continental-scale International Project TOGA Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere programme (WCRP) (WCRP) GCOS Global Climate Observing System TRUCE Tropical Urban Climate Experiment (WMO/IOC/ICSU/UNEP) UNCED United Nations Conference on Environment and GDPS Global Data-processing System (WWW/WMO) Development (Brazil, 1992) GEF Global Environment Facility UNDP United Nations Development Programme GEWEX Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (WCRP) UNEP United Nations Environment Programme GOOS Global Oceim Observing System (IOC/WMO/ UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and ICSU/UNEP) Cultural Organization GOS Global Observing System (WWW/WMO) VCP Voluntary Cooperation Programme (WMO) GTS Global Telecommunication System (WWW/WMO) WAFS World Area Forecast System HOMS Hydrological Operational Multipurpose System WCASP World Climate Applications and Services (WMO) Programme (WMO) HWR Hydrology and Water Resources (WMO) WCDMP World Climate Data and Monitoring Programme IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency (WMO) IAHS International Association of Hydrological Sciences WCIRP World Climate Impact Assessment and Response (IUGG) Strategies Programme (WMO) lAMAS International Association of Meteorology and WCP World Climate Programme (WMO) Atmospheric Sciences (IUGG) WCRP World Climate Research Programme (WMO/ICSU) lAPSO International.Association for the Physical Sciences WFC World Food Council (UN) of the Ocean (IUGG) WHO World Health Organization lATA International Air Transport Association WHY COS World Hydrological Cycle Observing System ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization WMC World Meteorological Centre (WWW) ICSU International Council of Scientific Unions WOCE World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WCRP) IDNDR International Decade for Natural Disaster WTO World Tourism Organization Reduction (UN) www World Weather Watch (WMO)