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1 Defender and Expositor of the Bergen Methods of Synoptic Analysis: Significance, History, and Translation of Bergeron's 1 Defender and Expositor of the Bergen Methods of Synoptic Analysis: 2 Significance, History, and Translation of Bergeron’s (1928) 3 “Über die dreidimensional verknüpfende Wetteranalyse” 4 [“Three-Dimensionally Combining Weather Analysis”] 5 6 DAVID M. SCHULTZ 7 Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, and 8 Centre for Crisis Studies and Mitigation, University of Manchester, Manchester, United 9 Kingdom 10 11 HANS VOLKERT 12 Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, 13 Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany 14 15 BOGDAN ANTONESCU 16 National Institute for Research and Development in Optoelectronics, Măgurele, 17 Romania, and European Severe Storms Laboratory, Wessling, Germany 18 19 HUW C. DAVIES 20 Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland 21 22 23 For submission as an Article to Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 24 25 26 March 2020 26 27 Corresponding author: Prof. David M. Schultz, [email protected] 1 28 ABSTRACT 29 Tor Bergeron was a key member of the famous Bergen School of Meteorology that 30 developed one of the most influential contributions to synoptic analysis in the 20th 31 century. However, the eventual success of the so-called Bergen methods of synoptic 32 analysis was not guaranteed. Concerns and criticisms of the methods—in part from the 33 lack of referencing to prior studies, overly simplified conceptual models, and lack of real 34 data in papers by Bjerknes and Solberg—were inhibiting worldwide adoption of the 35 methods. Bergeron’s research output in the 1920s was aimed at addressing these 36 concerns. His doctoral thesis, written in German, was published as a journal article in 37 Geofysiske Publikasjoner in 1928. Here, an accessible and annotated English translation 38 is provided along with a succinct overview of this seminal study. Major interlaced themes 39 of Bergeron’s study were the first comprehensive description of the Bergen methods; a 40 vigorous defense of cyclogenesis as primarily a lower-tropospheric process as opposed 41 to an upper-tropospheric/lower-stratospheric one; a nuanced explanation of the assertion 42 that meteorology constituted a distinct and special scientific discipline; and, very 43 understandably, a thorough account of Bergeron’s own contributions to the Bergen 44 School. His contributions included identifying how deformation results in frontogenesis 45 and frontolysis, quantifying subjectively the influence of aerosols on visibility, and 46 explaining the role of the ambient conditions in the onset of drizzle as opposed to rain 47 showers—a distinction that led the formulation of the Wegener–Bergeron–Findeisen 48 process. 2 49 Introduction 50 “If you have a very great interest in meteorology and, besides, if you do not 51 shrink back from hard work and if you can stand disappointments, then it 52 would be worthwhile.” — Tor Bergeron to Sverre Petterssen about choosing 53 a career in meteorology (as reported in Liljequist 1981, 416–417) 54 55 Starting in 1918 and continuing into the 1920s, the ground-breaking conceptual model of 56 cyclone structure and evolution known as the Norwegian cyclone model was developed 57 and published by the members of the Bergen School of Meteorology. But, its eventual 58 success was not guaranteed, and it was struggling to be accepted in some quarters. 59 Although some national weather services thought that the model might be useful, others 60 were less sure. 61 62 Davies (1997, his section 4.4) has summarized many of the objections to the new model 63 at that time, but quite frankly “they were trying to market an incomplete product” (Friedman 64 1989, p. 198). The conceptual model presented in Bjerknes (1919) and Bjerknes and 65 Solberg (1922) lacked sufficient observational evidence to justify their model, having 66 “excessive claims and oversimplification” (Douglas 1952, p. 6). Specifically, “Due largely 67 to the absence of definite guidance on how to locate “fronts” on the weather map, 68 considerable misunderstanding of polar front methods has arisen” (translator’s note in 69 Bjorkdal 1931, p. 275). Monthly Weather Review editor Alfred Henry argued that the 70 different geographies between Norway and the United States meant that the Norwegian 3 71 cyclone model was not necessarily applicable (Henry 1922a,b), as discussed in Newton 72 and Rodebush Newton (1999). Furthermore, “no one has ever shown a cyclone to be 73 truly a wave on a front between air masses of different density, or that waves of such an 74 implitude [amplitude, sic.] are possible” (Willett 1926). In yet another example, one of the 75 Bergen School’s own wrote, 76 “the partly rather hot struggle…could probably have been largely avoided if 77 endeavours had been made to a greater extent from the Norwegian side to 78 illustrate the idealised cyclone models with real examples, taken from 79 weather maps. As the theories are now published, the readers — who have 80 often been completely without insight in the Bergen method of analyzing 81 synoptic charts (sometimes summed up in the scarcely fortunate term of 82 frontology) — have been left to convince themselves of the applicability of 83 the models, and the result has naturally often been negative” – Rossby 84 (1925, p. 153) 85 Schwerdtfeger (1981, p. 501) wrote, “the nice sketches in the papers of [Jacob Bjerknes 86 and Halvor Solberg] were mostly based on surface observations and not accompanied 87 by convincing case studies.” As a result, analysis that adhered to Bergen methods was 88 often prohibited at national forecasting agencies, against the wishes of some of the more 89 open-minded analysts (Namias 1981, p. 493; Jewell 1983, p. 166). 90 91 In Vienna, Felix Exner downplayed these new ideas (e.g., Exner 1921, 1925, 1927), 92 writing that the polar front “is to be regarded merely as a schematic hypothesis” (Exner 4 93 1925, p. 355). In Germany, Heinrich von Ficker (1923) lauded the new analysis scheme, 94 but disagreed that this model was both new and radical, criticizing the lack of referencing 95 to previous work (e.g., Friedman 1989, p. 199; Davies 1997, section 4; Volkert 1999; 96 Fleming 2016, 46–50). This slight was painful and confusing, especially because the 97 Bjerkneses had previously lived and worked in Leipzig with Vilhelm founding the 98 Geophysical Institute there (e.g., chapter 4 of Friedman 1989; Jewell 2017, 423–445). 99 This anger was still apparent 60 years later when Schwerdtfeger (1981, p. 501) wrote, 100 “in their publications in the first volumes of the scientific journal “GP” 101 [Geofysiske Publikasjoner], the mature and highly respected scientist V. 102 Bjerknes, as well as the two younger men, had shown a spectacular 103 disregard for the work previously done by others, in particular the Austrian 104 meteorologists in the Vienna School. To write in the 1920’s about a polar 105 front and its displacements on the rear side of cyclones without referring, 106 for instance, to Ficker’s (1910) highly relevant work about the spreading of 107 cold air masses over Russia, or to discuss the observation that the centre 108 of a young mid-latitude depression tends to lie near the northernmost part 109 of the warm air without ever mentioning Exner’s textbook (1917), was not 110 only an unnecessary and unprovoked lack of courtesy toward the Austrian 111 colleagues, but also a neglect of an unwritten rule for scientific writing, valid 112 at this time….” 113 Instead, Kutzbach (1979, 217–218) argued that their omission of citations was more 114 arbitrary than intentional, pointing out that Jacob didn’t even cite his father’s work despite 5 115 its clear connections to his work. She concludes that “they were evidently preoccupied 116 with the presentation of their own viewpoint.” 117 118 Yet another point of conflict was that the Bergen School’s emphasis on lower-tropospheric 119 temperature gradients was at odds with Ficker’s (1920) own theory on upper-tropospheric 120 and lower-stratospheric influences on cyclogenesis, which was gaining adherents 121 globally (e.g., Douglas 1924) and in conflict with those who believed that the pressure 122 field, not the temperature field, was the primary field of interest (Davies 1997, 2010). 123 Much later, Bergeron (1959, p. 457) wrote, 124 “So compact was, in fact, the opposition … from leading quarters in Europe, 125 especially this Vienna School…that the ideas of the initiating Bergen School 126 made very little headway to begin with outside Norway. Its adepts were 127 severely discouraged and might even have given up using their ideas and 128 findings in practice.” 129 To win adherents, the Bergen School needed to rethink their strategy. 130 131 The article: Part I of an envisaged compendium and a PhD thesis en passant 132 Tor Bergeron (1891–1977; Fig. 1), the Swede, was always a bit different than the 133 Norwegians: father and son, Vilhelm and Jacob Bjerknes, and Halvor Solberg. Bergeron 134 (biographies in Liljequist 1981, Weickmann 1979, and Schultz and Friedman 2007) was 135 more thorough in his writing style, more willing to cite the previous work, and more willing 136 to challenge existing models (including Jacob’s own cyclone model). He was known “for 6 137 his painstaking work in trying to account for as much detail as possible” (Jewell 2017, p. 138 485). Through two important papers in the 1920s (Bergeron and Swoboda 1924; 139 Bergeron 1928) and his subsequent role as the Bergen School’s greatest apostle 140 (Liljequist 1981, p. 420; Friedman 1989, p. 197), he was able to explain the Bergen 141 methods in a way that mollified many of the critics, producing a vigorous defense of the 142 Norwegian approach.
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