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NIDS China Security Report 2016 the Expanding Scope of PLA Activities and the PLA Strategy NIDS CHINA SECURITY REPORT NIDS China Security Report 2016 The Expanding Scope of PLA Activities and the PLA Strategy National Institute for Defense Studies, Japan NIDS China Security Report 2016 The Expanding Scope of PLA Activities and the PLA Strategy Published by The National Institute for Defense Studies 2-2-1 Nakameguro, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8648, Japan Phone: +81-3-5721-7005 E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.nids.go.jp Translated by The Japan Times, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 by the National Institute for Defense Studies, Japan All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form without written, prior permission from the publisher. This publication is a translation of the Japanese version originally published in March 2016. ISBN978-4-86482-040-0 Printed in Japan NIDS China Security Report 2016 Contents Preface·································································································································· iii Chapter Summary·············································································································· v Acronyms and Abbreviations····················································································· viii Introduction··························································································································1 Chapter 1: Strengthening Operational Capabilities in Open Seas —The PLAN···································································································5 1. China’s Changing Naval Strategy·············································································6 2. Increasingly Active Naval Operations over a Wider Area································· 10 3. Future Development of the PLAN·········································································· 16 Chapter 2: Revising Its Strategic Posture and Expanding Capabilities —The PLAAF······························································································ 21 1. PLAAF Strategy: From Territorial Air Defense to Integrated Aerospace Capabilities and Simultaneous Offense and Defense······································· 22 2. Modernization of Air Force Equipment································································· 26 3. Looking to the Chinese Air Force of the Future·················································· 32 Column The Gaoxin Project······················································································· 35 Chapter 3: Expanding and Strengthening Its Missile Force —The PLASAF··························································································· 37 1. Nuclear Force Aiming at Assured Second-Strike Capacity······························ 38 2. Development of Conventional Missiles································································ 45 3. The Future of the PLASAF······················································································· 51 Column Development of Hypersonic Glide Vehicles············································· 53 Chapter 4: Enhancement of the PLA’s Joint Operational Capabilities······· 55 1. Aiming to Win Informationized Local Wars·························································· 56 2. Enhancing Capabilities for System-versus-System Operations····················· 58 3. The Direction of Reforms of Command and Force Structures························ 61 Conclusions······················································································································ 65 Endnote······························································································································ 70 i Preface Preface The NIDS China Security Report published by the National Institute for Defense Studies (NIDS) is widely distributed in Japan and abroad to provide analysis conducted by Chapter Summary NIDS researchers on China’s military affairs and security from a mid- to long-term perspec- tive. Since its first publication in March 2011, the NIDS China Security Report has been offered annually in Japanese, English, and Chinese editions and has attracted significant in- terest from research institutions and the media in Japan and overseas. The analysis offered Introduction in these reports has allowed NIDS to promote exchange and dialogue with research institu- tions and interested parties in a variety of countries, including China. The current NIDS China Security Report 2016 is the sixth annual edition, and as indi- Chapter 1 cated by its subtitle, “The Expanding Scope of PLA Activities and the PLA Strategy,” it examines the major influence the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) exerts on security in the region through the PLA Navy (PLAN), Air Force (PLAAF), and Second Artillery Force (PLASAF; reorganized into the PLA Rocket Force at the end of December 2015). Each of Chapter 2 these services has its own basic strategy, and the Report analyzes the overall trend toward greater military strength accompanying efforts to put those strategies fully into effect. It also analyzes the implications for security in East Asia represented by the PLA’s current situation Chapter 3 as well as the trend toward the joint operation of these various services. The Report’s authors had the opportunity to engage in an exchange of opinions with researchers and other special- ists in China and other countries and drew on the views provided to assist in their efforts to present an objective analysis. The endnotes provide information on the specific primary and Chapter 4 secondary materials referred to in the Report’s writing. The NIDS China Security Report 2016 has been written solely from the viewpoints of the individual researchers and does not represent an official view of the Japanese Government, Conclusions the Ministry of Defense, or NIDS. Writing was conducted by Masafumi Iida, who was the lead author and responsible for Chapters 1 and 4, and Shinji Yamaguchi, who authored Chapters 2 and 3. Editing was conducted by editor-in-chief Tetsuo Murooka and Koichi Arie, Sukeyuki Ichimasa, Keiko Kono, Haruhiko Takada, Hideo Tomikawa, and Rira Momma. The title of the previous edition was the NIDS China Security Report 2014, which was published in March 2015 and indicated the Japanese fiscal year, but beginning with this edi- tion, the NIDS China Security Report 2016, the title will reflect the actual year of publication. iii Preface The authors of the NIDS China Security Report 2016 hope that it will promote policy discussions concerning China in Japan and other countries, and at the same time they hope that the Report will contribute to a deepening of dialogue and exchange as well as coopera- tion between Japan and China regarding security. March 2016 Tetsuo Murooka Director, Security Studies Department The National Institute for Defense Studies iv Chapter Summary Preface Chapter 1 Strengthening Operational Capabilities in Open Seas —The PLAN Chapter Summary Since its establishment, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has changed its strategy from “coastal defense and inshore defense” to “offshore defense” and later to a combination of “offshore defense and open seas defense (protection).” At the same time, it has been expanding its area of operations from the coastal areas of the Chinese continent to Introduction the East China Sea and South China Sea, and even further to the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean. The PLAN is constructing a new indigenous aircraft carrier and taking other steps to rapidly modernize its surface combatants, submarines and aircraft, while steadily enhancing its operational capabilities in open seas. From now on, it can be expected to strengthen its Chapter 1 presence in the offshore waters and airspace with the aim of establishing superiority in dis- putes over territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests. In order to prevent inter- ference by the United States in China’s “core interests,” it will probably deploy new nuclear-powered submarines and destroyers equipped with high-performance anti-ship mis- Chapter 2 siles, as well as strengthening its intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capa- bilities in the Western Pacific. It is also expected to advance into the Indian Ocean to protect Chinese companies and citizens overseas and important sea lines of communication. Chapter 3 Chapter 2 Revising Its Strategic Posture and Expanding Capabilities —The PLAAF The PLA Air Force (PLAAF) is transitioning from its traditional role of territorial air Chapter 4 defense to a stance which covers a wider range of responsibilities, foremost of which is pre- paring for simultaneous offensive and defensive roles. The PLAAF is becoming more active over the open seas and in 2015 carried out its first training exercises over the Western Pacific when it passed through the Bashi Channel. Such an expansion of PLAAF activities is sup- Conclusions ported by the modernization of its equipment. It is moving forward with emphasis on adop- tion of fourth-generation jet fighters, mainly through import from Russia, and introduction of combat aircraft capable of air-to-ground attack. It is also seeking to increase the range of bombers which can be mounted with long-range cruise missiles. Other areas for emphasis include expansion of ISR capabilities and introduction of a variety of combat support air- craft, including airborne early warning, command, and control systems. Trends for future emphasis will likely include expansion of large transport and refueling
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