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Libyan Crisis (2011---2017) 2011 Libyan crisis (2011---2017) 2011 • 2011 February --- Inspired by revolts in other Arab countries, especially neighbouring Egypt and Tunisia, violent protests break out in Benghazi, spread to other cities, leading to escalating clashes between security forces and anti---Gaddafi rebels. • 2011 March --- UN Security Council authorises a no---fly zone over Libya and air strikes to protect civilians, over which NATO assumes command. Libyan rebels initially capture territory but are then forced back by better---armed pro---Gaddafi forces. • 2011 July --- The international Contact Group on Libya formally recognises the main opposition group, the National Transitional Council (NTC), as the legitimate government of Libya. • 2011 20 October --- Col Gaddafi is captured and killed as rebel fighters take his hometown Sirte. Three days later, the NTC declares Libya to be officially "liberated" and announces plans to hold elections within eight months. 2012 • 2012 August --- Transitional government hands power to the General National Congress (GNC), which was elected in July. The Congress elects Mohammed Magarief of the liberal National Front Party as its chairman, thereby making him interim head of state. • 2012 September --- US ambassador (Chris Stevens) and three other Americans are killed when Islamist militants, including Ansar al---Sharia, storm the consulate in Benghazi. • 2012 October --- National Congress elects Ali Zeidan, a liberal and leading opposition envoy during the civil war, to the post of prime minister. 2014 • 2014 March --- GNC sacks Prime Minister Ali Zeidan and elects businessman Ahmed Maiteg prime minister in heated scenes. • 2014 May --- "Libyan National Army" general KhaliFa Haftar launches military assault including airstrikes against militant Islamist groups in Benghazi; tries to seize parliament building, accusing Prime Minister Maiteg of being in thrall to Islamist groups. • 2014 June --- Prime Minister Maiteg resigns after supreme court rules his appointment illegal. Main internal actors “Tobruk Government” • The House of Representatives and its associated government, based respectively in the eastern cities oF Tobruk and al---Bayda, created after the 2014 elections, also known as the "Tobruk government” (internationally recognized as the "Libyan Government”). • It has the loyalty of the Libyan National Army under the command of General Khalifa Ha\ar, supported by Egypt and the UAE “GNC” (Tripoli) • Rival Islamist government of the General National Congress (GNC), based in the capital Tripoli. The GNC, strongest in western Libya, rejected the results oF the 2014 election, and is influenced by the Muslim Brotherhood, backed by a wider Islamist coalition known as "Libya Dawn" and supported by Qatar, Sudan, and Turkey. Other internal actors Other rival groups: • the Islamist Shura Council oF Benghazi Revolutionaries, led by Ansar al---Sharia (Libya) • the Islamic State oF Iraq and the Levant's (ISIL's) Libyan provinces (in Sirte, now defeated); • Tuareg militias oF Ghat, controlling desert areas in the southwest; • Local Forces in Misrata District, controlling the towns of Bani Walid and Tawergha. DAWN AND DIGNITY • Operation Dawn: A military coalition comprised of Tripoli---based Islamist militias, Misrata---based militias, Berber armed factions, and others. Operation Dawn kicked off its own offensive against Zintani militias in Tripoli in July 2014. • Operation Dignity: Military coalition led by KhaliFa Haftar that launched an offensive against Islamist militias in Benghazi in May 2014, then quickly broadened its campaign. 2015 • 2015 January --- Libyan army and Tripoli---based militia alliance declare partial ceasefire a\er UN---sponsored talks in Geneva. • 2015 February --- Egyptian jets bomb Islamic State targets in Derna, a day a\er the group there released a video showing the beheading of 21 Egyptian Christians. Path towards a consensual governance Libyan Political Agreement (Skhirat –17.12.2015) As a result oF the Libyan Political Dialogue (LPD) in December 2015 the two main factions agreed in principle to unite as the Government of National Accord. Libyan Political Agreement (Skhirat –17.12.2015) • The Agreement of Skhirat established a “Presidency Council of the Council of Ministers”, to serve until appointment of a Government of National Accord. • It consisted of a council president (Fayez al---Serraj, considered the future government’s prime minister--- designate), five deputies (deputy prime ministers--- designate) and three state ministers, each representing a different political and geographical constituency Libyan Political Agreement (Skhirat –17.12.2015) • An advisory High State Council of ex---GNC members. • The House o Representatives (Tobruk) was to continue as the sole parliament and approve the unity government (but it has yet to do so). The institutional set---up thus is incomplete GNA political process • A UN---supported executive that took office in Tripoli on 31 March 2016 and was tasked to form a unity government. • On 5 April 2016, the Tripoli Islamist government announced that i t was suspending operations and handing power to the new unity government, officially named the "Government of National Accord”. Context of conflict and structural factors • Lack of state institutions and political authority. • Problem oF political and legal legitimacy. • Lack of democratic culture and practices • Failure to deal with the past (no reconciliation process) and lack of a national vision for Libya. • Strong regional dimension • Lack of effective international determination to dissuade spoilers from undermining the transitional process. Libya: uprising or civil war? Libya and international community Outside actors: – pro---Presidency Council (the U.S., UK, Italy, Algeria, Turkey and Qatar) – supporters of the council without excluding gen. Ha\ar (Russia, Egypt, the UAE and to some extent France) Libya and international community/I New York “Joint Communiqué” (22.09.2016) • Support for the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA) of Skhirat, Morocco signed on December 17, 2015 • Government of National Accord (GNA) as the sole legitimate government of Libya • Preservation of sovereignty, territorial integrity, unity, and national cohesion of the Libyan people. Libya and international community/II New York “Joint Communiqué” (22.09.2016) • Libyans should decide their own future without foreign interference. • The international community will not provide support to or maintain official contact with parallel institutions that claim to be the legitimate authority, but which are outside the LPA as specified by it. • We commend the continuous efforts oF the neighboring countries in support of the UN---led political process. We stress the importance of regional support for Libya and its democratic transition. Libya and international community New York “Joint Communiqué” (22.09.2016) 1. Algeria 11. Morocco 21. United Kingdom 2. Canada 12. Niger 22. United States 3. Chad 13. Qatar 23. European Union 4. China 14. Russia 24. United Nations 5. Egypt 15. Saudi Arabia 25. League of Arab 6. France 16. Spain States 7. Germany 17. Sudan 26. African Union. 8. Jordan 18. Tunisia 9. Italy 19. Turkey 10. Malta 20. United Arab Emirates 2017 2017 International actors for simulation 1. Algeria 10. United 2. Egypt Kingdom 3. France 11. United States 4. Germany 12. United Nations 5. Italy 6. Qatar 7. Russia 8. Saudi Arabia 9. United Arab Emirates Some international actors (Arab countries) EGYPT • No other Arab country plays as powerful a role in Libya as Egypt. Testament to Egypt’s involvement in the region is the regular travel Libyan leaders make to Cairo. • The relationship between Tobruk and Egypt is not just defined by significant arms deliveries but also by a shared political project: eradicating political Islam and enhancing the autonomy of eastern Libya. • For Egypt, according to some authors, having Cyrenaica – the eastern region of Libya – under the role oF a leader that is friendly to Egypt – Ha\ar for instance – would create a buffer zone with ISIS and a territorial hinterland for any opposition to the regime in Cairo. • Nevertheless, over time Egypt has put out at least two statements that contradict this position. • On the one hand, diplomats and the MFA have given assurances of their support to the UN---led political process; on the other, the security apparatus has supported Ha\ar even when it was clear that he was on a collision course with UN---backed unity efforts. QATAR • Libya is where Doha is fully committed to backing its Islamist allies, which have proven resilient in many battles, have stood their ground in strategically vital areas of the country, and currently carry their share of leverage at the roundtable. • The BBC described the February 17 Martyrs Brigade (a militia in the Libya Dawn coalition) as the “biggest and best armed militia in eastern Libya.” • Fighters loyal to Libya Dawn believe that they are waging the struggle against Qaddafi loyalists and authoritarianism by fighting forces loyal to the UN--- recognized government in Tobruk. Doha sees Libya as an important battleground in the Emirate’s ambitious foreign policy agenda. • Qatar has links with one Libyan politician and former jihadist – Abdelhakim Belhadj. • Qatar is under physical and diplomatic isolation from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt since July 2017 (accused of supporting international terrorism) UNITED ARAB EMIRATES • Although sharing some oF the same goals as Egypt, the UAE has a more nuanced position on the situation in Libya. • Reportedly, it
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