1. the Big Picture Political Security
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Libya Weekly Political Security Update Bell Whispering Bell June 16, 2020 1. The Big Picture Turkey flexes military muscle amid uncertainty over next move This week, combat operations continued between Libyan frigate and to intercept a Tanzania-flagged cargo vessel National Army (LNA) and Government of National Accord escorted by Turkish Navy frigates. The Turkish Navy warned (GNA) forces in the vicinity of Sirte. No significant changes the Greek helicopter from intervening, which prompted a have been recorded; LNA forces maintain defensive positions retreat. Reports indicate Irini was unable to intercept the cargo in the city. The LNA is relying on airstrikes targeting GNA vessel because of a legal loophole enabling Turkey to claim positions as far as Saddadah in the Misrata district to the vessel enjoys sovereign immunity. temporarily deter GNA forces from pursuing advances towards Sirte. On the ground, engagement has been limited to Meanwhile, the LNA is gradually displaying a bellicose rhetoric intermittent skirmishes and LNA heavy artillery shelling in given the importance of Sirte to the its survival prospects. The CONTENTS Buerat and Wadi Jaref, west Sirte, which resulted in civilian LNA under Khalifa Haftar’s command is now committing all fatalities. Between 10-13 June, military activity intensified in the resources to ensure Sirte is not lost to GNA forces. Based on area and LNA forces claimed control of the Gulf Steam power local terrain, there is effectively no barrier between Sirte and 1 plant while repelling GNA forces further west. terminals such as Es Sider/Ras Lanuf eastwards. If Sirte is THE BIG PICTURE captured, GNA forces could initiate engagement in the Oil Turkey flexes military muscle Regardless, positions in Sirte will remain fluid in the medium Crescent region within hours. term ahead of a likely escalation highlighted by the amid uncertainty over next reinforcements spotted arriving in both GNA and LNA ranks. To strengthen its posture after the recent setbacks, the LNA move GNA forces backed by Turkey are likely assessing their options reshuffled the general command’s HQ by appointing officers and whether negotiations will yield more results than a ground “who can effectively conduct the battle” and respond to recent offensive. Of note, GNA forces may consider laying siege to changes in the combat theatre, as per a general command 2 Sirte by capturing Wadi Jarf and areas southwest of the city, statement dated 13 June. The LNA acknowledged some of the NATIONWIDE SECURITY especially given the GNA’s control of Ash Shwayrif, a critical recent military setbacks and failure to capture Tripoli after six Events, Analysis and Data supply node. years of fighting terrorism in Libya. In a follow up statement, LNA spox Ahmed Al-Mismary clarified that the “reorganization” But ultimately, the GNA’s next moves will depend on Turkey’s is intended to include all personnel with combat experience in 3 resolve to continue fighting eastwards. For now, Turkey looks Benghazi, Derna, the Oil Crescent or Libya’s South. Al- set on reaping the benefits of recent military gains to expand Mismary’s statement indicates LNA forces will enlist reservists SECURITY BY NUMBERS its presence in Libya’s north-west and strengthen cooperation to join combat east of Misrata. Charts, Statistics and Analysis with the GNA. It remains unclear where Sirte falls in Turkey’s plans and whether an offensive will be pursued before, during, An LNA shift to an offensive posture is unlikely in the medium or after Ankara’s commercial and military interests are secured term, though the LNA has hinted at changes in combat tactics 4 in the north-west. and declared it will directly engage GNA forces in desert areas TRIPOLI REPORT (desert warfare) to avoid civilian exposure. Beyond Sirte, the On the diplomatic front, a settlement in Sirte will likely come via LNA will likely look to contain GNA influence in Libya’s south. News & Neighborhoods negotiations between Moscow and Ankara. Of note, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Defense Minister Sergei Meanwhile, in Tripoli, a sense of normality is gradually settling 5 Shoigu were scheduled to visit Ankara on 14 June. However, in though explosive remnants of war (ERW) continue to pose the meeting was postponed, underlining the fact that a a threat to civilians. In relation to internal divisions, GNA BENGHAZI REPORT settlement is yet to be reached. Nevertheless, Turkish FM Interior Minister Fathi Bashagha reached out to hardliners in News & Neighborhoods Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu reported technical discussions will continue GNA ranks, in an attempt to obtain their buy-in for security- at deputy level between the two countries. sector reforms. Bashagha directly called on the 17 February “revolutionaries” to respond to the historical challenge via 6 As combat operations continue in Sirte, Turkey is positive participation in state-building that rejects extremism, WHAT’S NEXT simultaneously broadening the scope of its military agreement terrorism, and chaos, and subsequently enhances security of with the GNA. The week was marked by bold military the Libyan state. Bashagha’s specific reference to “war Forward Looking Expert manoeuvres from Ankara. The Turkish Navy and Air Force criminal” is an attempt at reassuring GNA hardliners that Haftar Opinions conducted coordinated exercises off the coast of Libya, has no seat in future negotiations. according to the Turkish Ministry of Defence (MoD) on 11 June. The drills comprised 17 aircraft and eight frigates and There is mounting evidence to indicate the presence of Syrian corvettes, the MoD reported. fighters in GNA ranks, seen as a direct result of Bashagha’s policies, will continue to be a source of tension. This week, pro- The development came amid reports Ankara is officially LNA accounts placed greater emphasis on Syrian fighters considering the use of Al-Wattiyah as an airbase for unmanned occupying civilian homes in the Salah Eddien area. The pro- aerial vehicles (UAVs) and other intelligence, surveillance, and LNA reports, denied by WB sources, alleged disputes broke reconnaissance (ISR) functions. Misrata is reportedly being out between Syrian elements and the Special Deterrence considered by Turkey as a second naval base. Of note, local Force (SDF) in Salah Eddien. reports indicate Turkey is already consolidating its presence at Al-Wattiyah Airbase, which was captured by GNA forces on 18 May. KEY POINTS As Turkey consolidates, the EU is facing challenges in • Russia/Turkey postpone Libya talks enforcing the UN arms embargo. On 10 June, a helicopter • Turkey mulls use of Al-Wattiyah & Misrata bases operating under the EU's Operation Irini took off from a Greek • Escalation remains likely in Sirte Libya Weekly Political and Security Update 1 Further distribution without written consent of Whispering Bell is strictly prohibited. The Whispering Bell Libya Weekly Political and Security Update™ does not constitute advice and must not be regarded as a substitute for detailed advice in individual cases. It is provided “as is” and without warranty of any kind. Whispering Bell shall have no liability arising from any use made of this report, or any part of it, to the fullest extent permitted by law. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form. Copyright © 2020. All rights reserved. Whispering Bell June 16, 2020 2. National Security Map Ongoing military activity on Sirte axis; Sharara & El-Feel Oilfields shutdown Reports indicate an LNA airstrike targeted Key several GNA-affiliated armoured vehicles in Awbari at approximately 0200hrs on 13 THREAT INDICATORS June. WB sources reported an LNA airstrike targeted a large convoy carrying anti-LNA Severe Threat Tebu militiamen and mercenaries heading towards Sharara and Al-Feel oil fields at approx. 0200hrs on 13 June. Separately, pro- High Threat LNA accounts reported an airstrike targeted a GNA-affiliated military convoy near Wadi Al- Moderate Threat Shatii district on 13 June. Reports indicate unidentified gunmen shot dead a man in a failed carjacking attempt in EVENT INDICATORS Wershiffanah’s Almamoura area in the evening on 10 June. IED | VBIED Reports indicate a man was found killed inside Violent Clash his vehicle with signs of three gunshots in an unidentified location south of Al-Zawiya at night Isolated Gunfire on 10 June. Other Indiscriminate shelling targeted the Wadi Jarif area resulting in the death of an elderly Military reinforcements in support of LNA/GNA forces woman and injuring four other civilians on 09 flocked to the Sirte frontline on 12 June. Meanwhile, June. reports indicate an LNA airstrike targeted GNA positions at the As-Sadadah Bridge east of Misrata at Reports indicate two mass graves were found approx. 0400hrs on 13 June. On 11 June, LNA forces in Tarhunah on 07 June. shelled the Buerat area and Abugrein village in the afternoon. Earlier that morning, LNA airstrikes The National Oil Corporation (NOC) confirmed a targeted GNA positions in the As Saddadah area. “drastic deterioration in the security situation at Sharara Oilfield” following the arrival of armed The General Electricity Company of Libya (GECOL) groups from Sabha under Masoud Al Jadi and reported an armed attack targeted the Zainouba Ahmad Ibrahim bin Nayel who entered the field Power Plant located south of Al-Zawiya resulting in in the evening of 08 June, while noting that the destruction of two electrical transformers and production remains halted. In addition, the NOC subsequent power cuts across the southern suburbs noted the shutdown of production at El-Feel of the city on 13 June. Oilfield after the LNA’s Khalid Bin Al-Walid Battalion commander, Hassan Al-Tabawi, Reports indicate Osama Juwaili- affiliated Al-Dawi coerced workers to stop production a few days militia kidnapped/arrested a pro-LNA commander and after the Hamada valve was reopened. prominent military leader of the former Gaddafi The National Center for Disease Control (NCDC) regime, Omar Tantoush, in Al-Aziziya area in the morning on 13 June.