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1. the Big Picture Political Security Libya Weekly Political Security Update Bell Whispering Bell March 10, 2020 1. The Big Picture Tribes advance LNA’s political interests amid uncertainty over conflict This week,, levels of military activity between Government Libyan citizens. The 2020 budget comes against the of National Accord (GNA) and Libyan National Army (LNA) backdrop of spending cuts that will be implemented by forces led by Khalifa Haftar continued to rise, though the Ministry of Finance. The focus will be on fuel positions remain unchanged and combat is limited to subsidies and public sector salaries, which put a major intermittent skirmishes and heavy artillery shelling. Neither financial strain on state coffers. the GNA nor Haftar’s forces want to assume responsibility for an all-out escalation, despite mounting evidence that By contrast, Haftar continues to gain political clout from the 12 Jan truce is no longer holding. his eastern stronghold of Ar-Rajmah, where he met a high-level delegation of diplomats and advisors from CONTENTS The LNA’s strategy is to wait for GNA forces to mount an France, Italy, and Germany on 03 March. Haftar offensive first before justifying any retaliatory action. This reiterated the LNA’s commitment to eliminating militias, 1 was highlighted by LNA spokesperson Ahmed Al-Mismary in a clear indication there will be no political course until THE BIG PICTURE who confirmed forces remain in position and reserve the militias are disbanded. Of note, at the time of writing, right to respond to GNA violations and conduct preemptive Haftar met with French President Emmanuel Macron in Tribes advance LNA’s political strikes. Al-Mismary claimed the LNA continues to monitor Paris. Haftar stated he was willing to sign a ceasefire if interests amid uncertainty over GNA preparations for an offensive across all combat militias respect it, in yet another indicator of the little conflict prospect of an end to the conflict in the medium term. zones. In broad strokes, the narrative is gradually shifting towards Haftar’s resolute opposition to any form of negotiations 2 escalation. The LNA’s Head of Moral Guidance, Brigadier comes in the aftermath of the failure of the political track. NATIONWIDE SECURITY Khalid Al-Mahjoub stated the LNA will pursue attempts to Commitment to uphold the Berlin Conference’s Events, Analysis and Data control remaining kilometers left before reaching the heart outcomes has realistically faded away after the of the capital. On the GNA’s side, Interior Minister Fathi resignation of Ghassan Salame, the head of the UN Bashagha told Reuters the GNA will definitely move from Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL). Only a renewed 3 a defensive to an offensive course of action in the short diplomatic push by Moscow could bring parties back to SECURITY BY NUMBERS term. the negotiating table. Charts, Statistics and Analysis Meanwhile, intra-GNA divisions continue to widen in the Looking ahead, regardless of whether Moscow is able to aftermath of tensions between Bashagha and Tripoli- broker a permanent ceasefire in Libya, Turkey will 4 based militias, specifically the Nawasi Brigade. A drive-by continue to face an uphill struggle in-country. Militarily, TRIPOLI REPORT shooting targeting Syrian fighters stood as the first act of the LNA successfully bypassed Turkish air defence retaliation by the anti-Bashagha camp across the capital. systems with the use of heavy artillery shelling across the News & Neighborhoods Of note, Tripoli-based militias attribute the deployment of capital. Ankara will find it more difficult to shore up its Syrian fighters to Bashagha’s policies. In addition, the presence in Libya when EU countries officially deploy the 5 body of a Misrata field commander identified as recently-agreed naval mission off Libya’s coast. Mohammed Rfaida was found dumped near Salah Eddien BENGHAZI REPORT Traffic Lights on 07 March. Rfaida was reportedly in On the political front, Ankara continues to face hostile News & Neighborhoods charge of handling some Syrian fighters supporting GNA domestic audiences. Pro-LNA tribes and civil society forces. The incident was attributed to the Nawasi Brigade. members who recently orchestrated the oil blockade are 6 More targeted attacks and assassinations are likely in the now carving out an alternative political path in a bid to medium term against individuals/assets perceived to be combat foreign invasion and oust the GNA from “within”. WHAT’S NEXT close to Bashagha, Misrata, and/or the interior ministry. One of the key arguments presented by the pro-LNA Forward Looking Expert tribes to woo other tribesmen is “let us first counter Opinions Bashagha will likely continue to face opposition from local foreign Turkish invasion and deal with our differences militias as he attempts to reform the security sector across later”. In a follow up to the Tarhunah tribal forum, the the West. Of note, a statement by the US Embassy in High Council of Libyan tribes concluded its first meeting Libya helped boost the Interior Minister’s credibility this in Harawah on 05 March and agreed to form a High week. The US Embassy emphasized it will work with Committee headed by the tribal head of Tarhunah, Saleh Bashagha to implement US Executive Order 13726 related Al-Fendi. Tribes are now advancing the LNA’s interests to blocking property and suspending entry into the US of and building on gains already made on the political front persons contributing to destabilizing the situation in Libya. by the interim government and House of Representatives (HoR). Ousting the GNA and forming a unity government The GNA’s weakening posture was further compounded remains a cornerstone of this political agenda. by economic woes. The GNA is feeling the “squeeze” from the closure of terminals and ports, which has cost the Libyan economy $ 2.6 billion to date. The GNA approved KEY POINTS a budget of 38.5 billion LYD for 2020, down from the 46.8 billion LYD figure in 2019. In addition, the GNA established • Haftar meets Macron in Paris a Crisis Committee to follow up on the financial needs of • GNA approves reduced 2020 budget • Bashagha continues to face opposition from militias Libya Weekly Political and Security Update 1 Further distribution without written consent of Whispering Bell is strictly prohibited. The Whispering Bell Libya Weekly Political and Security Update™ does not constitute advice and must not be regarded as a substitute for detailed advice in individual cases. It is provided “as is” and without warranty of any kind. Whispering Bell shall have no liability arising from any use made of this report, or any part of it, to the fullest extent permitted by law. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form. Copyright © 2020. All rights reserved. Whispering Bell March 10, 2020 2. National Security Map Military build-up in Sabratah, Surman & Zawiya; large LNA reinforcements spotted towards Al-Weshka Key THREAT INDICATORS Severe Threat Large LNA reinforcements, including the 128 Infantry Battalion, have been reported flocking to High Threat Surman and Sabratah on 06 March. Pro-LNA accounts claim multiple GNA forces under the Moderate Threat Joint Ops commander Osama Juwaili have been transferred from the Aziziyah frontline to Zawiya ahead of a GNA-sanctioned offensive on the pro- LNA towns of Surman and Sabratah. EVENT INDICATORS Tensions continue to grow in the vicinity IED | VBIED of Garabolli as LNA forces led by Tarhunah’s 9th Brigade “Al-Kaniat” advanced in the Al- Violent Clash Rawajeh engagement axis on 04 March. Reports indicate a company affiliated with the 9th Brigade and led by Motaz Zakouzi carried out a tactical Isolated Gunfire operation against GNA forces. Other Skirmishes erupted between Zawiya armed factions and Al-Dawi militia (55th Battalion) led by Pro-LNA accounts hinted at a possible upcoming Muammar Al-Dawi in the Syad area at offensive to seize Gharyan, the town south of Tripoli approximately 1700hrs on 07 March. The captured by pro-GNA forces in June 2019. skirmishes erupted at a petrol station after a group affiliated with the Zawiya armed factions An LNA airstrike targeted GNA-aligned positions assaulted a militiaman affiliated with Al-Dawi in Abu Grein on 01 Mar. militia after the latter provoked them. The LNA’s Internal Security apparatus intercepted a Large LNA convoys have been reported vehicle en route to Tunis from Tripoli’s Al-Dahra. travelling via Sirte and towards Al-Weshka The vehicle was allegedly stopped in Sabratah with frontline. Reports suggest some 500 vehicles members of the Tripoli Revolutionaries Brigade were spotted on 03 March. The LNA’s 128 (TRB), Special Deterrence Force (SDF) and Nawasi Infantry Battalion was the latest to mobilise Brigade onboard. The pro-LNA reports allege the and join the frontlines westward on 03 March. militiamen were fleeing Tripoli. Unidentified assailants carjacked a local doctor’s white Toyota Corolla vehicle in Sabha's Al- The GNA’s Qaser Al-Akhyar security room, under Mahdiya area in the afternoon of 02 Mar. Locals the Central Military Region, ordered a curfew in the in the area managed to chase and recover the vicinity of Garabolli from 2300hrs to 0600hrs until vehicle in Sabha's Berdi area. further notice. The curfew extends to areas along the coastal road from Al-Gwea CP to Al-Neqqaza CP. LNA forces reportedly detained four pro-GNA forces from Gharyan who were conducting reconnaissance in the vicinity of Tarhunah on 03 Mar. Libya Weekly Political and Security Update Further distribution without written consent of Whispering Bell is strictly prohibited. The Whispering Bell Libya Weekly Political and Security Update™ does not constitute advice and must not be regarded as a substitute for detailed advice in individual cases. It is provided “as is” and without warranty of any kind.
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