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Defence VOLUME 145 Review SPECIAL ISSUE 2017/2 THE CENTRAL JOURNAL OF THE HUNGARIAN DEFENCE FORCES Issued by the HDF Defence Staff HM Zrínyi Térképészeti és Kommunikációs Szolgáltató Nonprofi t Közhasznú Társaság takes part in publishing Responsible for the publishing: and distributing the journal. Major General István Szabó Responsible manager: Editorial board Managing director Zoltán Benkóczy Chairman (Editor in Chief): Branch manager: Mihály Vigh Lieutenant General Zoltán Orosz (PhD) Acting Head of editorial staff : Members of the Board: Maj. Gen. (Ret.) János Isaszegi (PhD) Col. Tamás Bali (PhD) Editor of the special issue: Col. János Besenyő (PhD) Col. János Besenyő (PhD) Secretary of the Editorial Board: CPT Róbert Stohl (PhD) Col. (Ret.) Ferenc Földesi (PhD) Language revision: Kosztasz Panajotu (PhD) Col. (Ret.) Dénes Harai (PhD) Brig. Gen. József Koller (PhD) Editorial staff Col. Péter Lippai (PhD) Responsible editor: Zoltán Kiss Col. (Ret) László Nagy (CSc) Proofreading: Boldizsár Eszes Brig. Gen. Romulusz Ruszin (PhD) Design editor: Katalin Dancs Col. Siposné Kecskeméthy Klára (CSc) Editorial Secretary: Anita Szabó Sándor Szakály (DSc ) Telephone: +36 1 459-5355 Rudolf Urban (CSc) (Brno University) e-mail: [email protected] Péter Wagner (PhD) Postal address: 1087 Budapest, Kerepesi u. 29/b Advisory Board: Defence Review was printed in the company printshop. Ágota Fóris (PhD) The entire content of the journal is accessible on Brig. Gen. Gábor Horváth www. honvedelem.hu Zoltán Kalmár (PhD) Head of Printing offi ce: director Zoltán Pásztor Maj. Gen. Ferenc Korom HU ISSN 2060-1506 Brig. Gen. Imre Lamos Brig. Gen. Imre Pogácsás (Phd) Defence Review is recognised by the Hungarian Academy of István Szilágyi (DSc) Sciences as a category „A” benchmark publication. The papers Brig. Gen. József Szpisják published by Defence Review are reviewed and edited. Brig. Gen. Attila Takács Defence Review is a member of the European Military Press István Tarrósy (PhD) Association (EMPA) Defence VOLUME 145 Review SPECIAL ISSUE 2017/2 THE CENTRAL JOURNAL OF THE HUNGARIAN DEFENCE FORCES CONTENTS Foreword . 3 TERRORISM AND COUNTERTERRORISM Col. (Ret.) József Kis-Benedek: Jihadist hotbeds as possible starting points of terrorism . 4 Maj. Attila Kasznár: Terrorism as the Main Threat Regarding Major Powers and Europe . 18 Hanga Horváth-Sántha: Radicalization into Salafi Jihadism: Some Patterns and Profi les in Europe 2015–2017 . 26 Fruzsina Simigh: Counter-terrorism Strategy with Chinese Characteristics . 48 CONFLICT ZONES Rachael M. Rudolf: Strategic Containment: Triangulating North Korea’s Asymmetric Provocations with a Multilateral Electronic and Cyber Warfare Containment Strategy . 65 Ilias Kouskouvelis: The MENA Region Power Competition and the Challenges to Security . 75 Josh Bacon – Itai Reuveni: The NGO-Terrorism Connection: The Case of the Palestinian-Israeli Confl ict . 93 Lt. Col. (Ret.) László Kelemen: Hungarian Participation in the European Union Training Mission Somalia . 110 2 DR 2017/2 1st Lt. Ákos Treszkai: The Diffi culties of a Potential International Mission in Libya . 119 István Harkai: The Clash of International Law and Interests of Great Powers through the Glass of Western Sahara . 132 APPLIED SCIENCES Lt. Col. Győző Csanádi: Some Questions of Modelling and the Simulation of Information Management in Military Environment . 146 Éva Jakusné Harnos: The Representation of Migration in Online English Language News Texts . 161 BOOK REVIEW Bálint Somkuti: Lt. Col. Sándor Fábián: Irregular Warfare. The Future Military Strategy for Small States . 170 ABOUT THE AUTHORS . 173 EDITORIAL POLICIES . 176 GUIDELINES FOR AUTHORS . 178 DR 2017/2 3 FOREWORD As Head of the Editorial Board, I am proud to present the latest special issue of our sci- entific journal, the Defence Review, an English language professional forum on military and security policy topics. Traditionally, the goal of these special issues of analyses is to show the significant intellectual diversity among the topics of security sciences, with many outstanding papers by military service members and civilian researchers from all over the world, with one final purpose: to make our world safer. In the first section of this issue, our authors are focusing on the threats occurring in Europe. We need to be prepared to face challenges like terrorism. Following this spirit, József Kis-Benedek points on the European aspects of religion-based radicalisation. Thereafter, Attila Kasznár examines the connection between the current trends of terrorism and the sense of security. In her magnificent analysis, Hanga Horváth-Sántha gives the portraits of radicalised terrorists in Europe from the last two years, searching for “the dynamics, trigger factors and root causes of violent extremism”. Finally, Fruzsina Simigh, a research fellow of the HDF General Staff Scientific Research Centre, shows us the current Chinese approach to counter terrorism. The participation of the Hungarian Defence Forces in peacekeeping operations in vari- ous conflict zones is a tradition that we are proud of. In order to fulfil our commitments to the highest standard, beside “Zrínyi 2026” modernization project, we also have to be aware of the actual operational environment in the conflict zones. This is why I recommend the analysis of Rachael Rudolf on the North Korean situation. Ilias Kouskouvelis and István Harkai elaborate on interesting questions on the powers competing for various parts of Africa. In their analysis, Itai Reuveni and Josh Bacon show us some interesting viewpoints on the NGO’s role in the Arab-Israeli conflict. Considering the unstable situation, Ákos Treszkai examines the possible difficulties of a future international mission in Libya. And last, but not least in this section, László Kelemen presents the recent history of the Hungar- ian participation in EUTM-S. The two final papers in this issue, by Győző Csanádi and Éva Jakusné Harnos indicate that various applied sciences like Linguistics and Information Science can also be very use- ful for military and security purposes. Considering the wide-ranging content of this special issue, I am proud to present these papers and warmheartedly welcome all our colleagues' future works on military science and security policy in order to enhance a more extensive professional discussion both at national and international levels. Lieutenant General Zoltán Orosz Hungarian Military Representative to NATO and EU Military Committees, Chief of the Editorial Board 4 Terrorism and Counterterrorism DR 2017/2 Col. (Ret.) József Kis-Benedek: JIHADIST HOTBEDS AS POSSIBLE STARTING POINTS OF TERRORISM1 ABSTRACT: One of the biggest challenges of our time is terrorism and its concomitant phenom- ena, such as radicalism and jihadism. The author analyses the causes and consequences of terrorism by presenting the relevant cases in some important countries. Reducing this topic only to some concrete countries is important because the causes of radicalism and jihadism are different and from time to time can change not only in a region, but in a single country as well. Radicalism and jihadism are in close connection with crisis areas. Besides the analysis of this topic, the study touches upon also the proposals to handle and solve this problem. KEYWORDS: terrorism, jihadism, radicalism, foreign fighters, Middle East, Europe INTRODUCTION The terror-wave hitting the West in 2016 and 2017 had a significant impact on the elections and the policy of governments (e.g. The Netherlands, France and Germany). The causes that trigger the terrorist actions have not ceased to exist at all, and terrorists will certainly continue their activities in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Nigeria. This will entail further migration waves, and force many citizens to leave their home (IDPs – internally displaced persons). The terrorist organization – named as ISIS or DAESH – has proved its strong operative capability in Europe, and its members will remain active in Iraq, Syria, and in other countries as well for several years. This may modify the policy of governments in 2017 and ‘18 and not only in the countries where elections will be held.2 MIGRATION The civil war will have been raging in Syria for eight years in March 2018. This devastat- ing conflict has been reducing the country to ruins, deteriorating Syria’s relations with its neighbors, increasing the regional influence of Russia and Iran, and in addition, has severely tested the peacekeeping capability of the United Nations. As we could see in Afghanistan, if the combat activities come to an end, one combating side autonomously declares itself winner, nevertheless, the fighting or the revolt will continue. I am of the view that we have little chance to avoid such a scenario in Iraq and Syria. 1 Revised English translation of Kis-Benedek, J. “Dzsihadista fészkek, mint a terrorizmus lehetséges kiinduló- pontjai”. Hadtudomány 27/1-2. 2017. 96–113. 2 “TSG IntelBrief: North Africa’s Export-Import of Terror”. The Soufan Group. 23 February 2015. http://www. soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrief-north-africas-export-import-of-terror/, Accessed on 2 January 2017. DR 2017/2 Terrorism and Counterterrorism 5 Europe will have to cope with migration in 2018 too. The agreement concluded with Turkey in March 2016 has significantly reduced the number of illegal migrants arriving in Europe through the Balkan route. Since the tackling of the migration crisis represents a political trump card in the hands of European politicians, they cannot afford to neglect it.
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