Libya Weekly Political Security Update Bell Whispering Bell March 17, 2020 1. The Big Picture Oil crisis to take centre stage amid COVID-19 concerns While ,fighting remains limited to bouts of violence More importantly, the LNA is expected to exploit the and intermittent skirmishes between Libyan situation to strengthen its case for accessing oil & National Army (LNA) and Government of National gas revenues. Of note, the blockade on exports Accord (GNA) forces, reinforcements continue to orchestrated by pro-LNA tribes continues to deepen underline the prospect of an escalation in Libya’s with losses now estimated at 3 billion USD west, especially along the Sirte-Weshka-Abugrein according to the National Oil Corporation (NOC). engagement axes. Reports of large GNA-aligned The oil crisis was the centre of Haftar’s Paris and CONTENTS Misrata military reinforcements were spotted Berlin visits. France’s diplomacy made it clear this arriving in Abugrein to join the GNA’s Sirte-Jufra week that Haftar forms an integral part of Libya’s Ops Room on 09 March. In response, the LNA’s future. Haftar met with French President Emmanuel 1 general command mobilised additional resources Macron and expressed commitment to abide by a THE BIG PICTURE towards Weshka - Abugrein on 10 March. ceasefire if GNA forces comply. Haftar’s Paris visit Oil crisis to take centre stage was low-profile and no official communique was amid COVID-19 concerns The LNA led by Khalifa Haftar continues to claim it released, leading French media to underline the is monitoring GNA preparations for a broader Elysee’s low confidence in a resolution. 2 offensive across all combat zones. While advances NATIONWIDE SECURITY remained somewhat limited since the January The LNA is attempting to choke off the Tripoli truce, LNA forces gained ground this week in Al- government’s cash flow, but before doing so, it Events, Analysis and Data Kassarat, increasing the likelihood the GNA-held remains to be seen whether Haftar can sustain the town of Gharyan will be cut off from remaining GNA blockade in the medium term. The LNA edges 3 forces in Aziziyah and Tripoli. closer to an attempt to market crude independently. SECURITY BY NUMBERS Haftar’s Paris discussions allegedly focused on a Charts, Statistics and Analysis However, this week’s developments were mechanism to bypass the Tripoli-based Central dominated by concerns over the COVID-19 Bank of Libya (CBL) in managing oil and gas 4 pandemic as both governments in the east and revenues. However, the LNA is under pressure and west implemented a series of preventive control this was highlighted by the parallel CBL’s TRIPOLI REPORT measures. While Libya has not publicly declared announcement that it will no longer provide funds to News & Neighborhoods any cases to date, observers are of the view the pay for eastern government expenses, with the healthcare system is ill-equipped to respond to a exception of public sector salaries. Likewise, the 5 potential spread of the virus in-country. The official NOC in Tripoli cut all non-essential expenses BENGHAZI REPORT COVID-19 outbreak is set to impact Libya, like other due to the ongoing oil blockade and subsequent News & Neighborhoods countries, in many ways but the most significant revenue loss. In a statement, the NOC confirmed it impact so far has been limited to travel disruptions failed to receive its 2020 budget allocation, forcing after the closure of all entry/exit points and it to freeze/postpone various contracts, stop 6 restrictions on foreign nationals entering the overtime pay, and reduce various services along WHAT’S NEXT country. with other measures. Forward Looking Expert Opinions At the time of writing, not all measures were being On the tribal front, Haftar continues to rally public implemented equally. For example, vessels were support one step at a time. This week, the elders still anchoring at Misrata and Khoms ports. Cargo and sheikhs of Al-Nawahy Al-Arbaa Council were vessels with critical goods and supplies are unlikely received by LNA military figures in Benghazi on 11 to be denied entry, although delays in unloading March. The visit to the east would come after the and cargo handling are to be expected. tribal elders attributed an intensified shelling campaign against their respective areas to GNA The COVID-19 situation continues to evolve forces, expressing support for the LNA. Of note, Al- globally but is unlikely to change the current military Nawahy Al-Arbaa includes areas south of Tripoli, environment or prompt GNA and LNA forces to including Qaser Bin Ghashir, Espiaa, Sog Al- back down. As civilians engage in panic buying, the Khmies Emsihel and Sidi Al-Sayeh areas. LNA will continue to emphasise divisions. The situation presents an opportunity for the LNA to KEY POINTS reinforce its narrative and sow divisions across the • Nationwide COVID-19 preventive measures west. • LNA closer to independently marketing crude • Oil crisis chokes off GNA & eastern government Libya Weekly Political and Security Update 1 Further distribution without written consent of Whispering Bell is strictly prohibited. The Whispering Bell Libya Weekly Political and Security Update™ does not constitute advice and must not be regarded as a substitute for detailed advice in individual cases. It is provided “as is” and without warranty of any kind. Whispering Bell shall have no liability arising from any use made of this report, or any part of it, to the fullest extent permitted by law. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form. Copyright © 2020. All rights reserved. Whispering Bell March 17, 2020 2. National Security Map LNA downs GNA UAV over Al-Jufra Airbase; combat activity uptick on Sirte-Misrata engagement axes Key THREAT INDICATORS Severe Threat Unidentified assailants opened fire on a civilian vehicle carrying two medical staff travelling on the High Threat Coastal Road of Garabolli, killing a local doctor and injuring the other passenger on 12 March. Moderate Threat Pro-GNA accounts attributed the incident to the LNA’s 9th Brigade (Al-Kaniat militia of Tarhuna). In a separate incident, reports suggest GNA forces ambushed a group of Al- Kaniat militiamen on the EVENT INDICATORS Coastal Road of Garabolli in the early hours of 12 March, killing one and injuring two other members IED | VBIED who managed to escape. According to the information Office Director of the Violent Clash LNA’s Southern Military Zone, Mahmoud Al- Werfalli, the Southern Military Zone commander, Isolated Gunfire Abu Qasim Al-Abaj, ordered greater efforts to secure the Sharara Oilfield. Al-Werfalli stated Other that the orders came at the request of the LNA’s General Command and include intensifying patrols in the Murzuq and Awbari regions. Al- The LNA claimed its air defense systems shot down Abaj has been recently very active in the south, a GNA-affiliated Turkish unmanned aerial vehicle including Al-Kufra, as part of attempts to (UAV) conducting a reconnaissance mission reconcile local factions and expand the LNA’s over Al-Jufra Airbase on 14 March. Separately, reach in those areas. reports indicate heavy explosions in Houn and Waddan located in the Jufra District at The management of the Libyan-Tunisian Ras approximately 1730hrs on 14 March. Initial reports Ajdir border crossing announced the closure of indicate a GNA airstrike targeted Al-Jufra Airbase. the border as of 0000hrs on 16 March in line with the GNA’s decision to close all land, sea, and air Additional LNA reinforcements were reported ports as a precautionary measure against the arriving in Al-Weshka between 14-15 March. COVID -19 pandemic. The border was closed at Meanwhile, the LNA conducted an airstrike on GNA 0000hrs on 16 March on the Libyan side, with the position in Abu Grein in the early hours of 15 March. exception of Libyan and Tunisian travellers LNA forces reported three GNA-operated military returning back to their home countries. vehicles were targeted as they engaged in reconnaissance in the vicinity. Separately, LNA attack helicopter combat sorties were also reported WB sources reported unidentified gunmen raided over Qasr Abu Hadi. In the evening on 14 March. the Al-Marqab University Administration’s HQ Beyond, reports indicate indiscriminate shelling in Khoms, interrupting a meeting held by the targeted GNA positions in Abu Grein. Pro-LNA university’s council, in the afternoon on 10 March. accounts claimed its units targeted GNA forces Initial reports indicate the gunmen intended to attempting to advance towards Al-Weshka. kidnap a university board member, though he managed to escape. Libya Weekly Political and Security Update Further distribution without written consent of Whispering Bell is strictly prohibited. The Whispering Bell Libya Weekly Political and Security Update™ does not constitute advice and must not be regarded as a substitute for detailed advice in individual cases. It is provided “as is” and without warranty of any kind. Whispering Bell shall have no liability arising from any use made of this report, or any part of it, to the fullest extent permitted by law. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form. Copyright © 2018. All rights reserved. 2 Whispering Bell March 17, 2020 3. Nationwide Security Analysis All fatalities recorded in Tripoli; majority of security incidents in Libya’s west Nationwide fatalities by Nationwide incidents by type of attack (Past week) type of attack (Past week) Violent Clash Mortar/Rocket Mortar/Rocket 2 Explosion Arrest Isolated Gunfire Kidnapping Isolated Gunfire Robbery Assassination Subscribe to Read More… 5 1 Sabotage Raid Fire Fire Airstrike 1 Ambush Ambush Assualt 1 Protest Assassination Nationwide fatalities by Nationwide incidents by national district (Past week) national district (Past week) Tripoli Al-Jfara Benghazi Az-Zawiyah Subscribe to Read More… Subscribe to Read More… Misratah Tripoli Al-Murgub (Al- Khums) Sirte Al-Jabal Al-Gharbi An-Nuqat Al- Khams (Zuwarah) Al-Butnan (Tobruq) Libya Weekly Political and Security Update 3 Further distribution without written consent of Whispering Bell is strictly prohibited.