DOCSLIB.ORG

State Centric Versus Human Centric: How Should Water As a Conflict Variable Be Understood?

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
State Centric Versus Human Centric: How Should Water As a Conflict Variable Be Understood? State Centric versus Human Centric: How Should Water as a Conflict Variable be Understood? A Research Report submitted to the Faculty of Humanities in partial fulfilment of the requirements for: The Degree of Master of Arts (by Coursework and Research Report) in International Relations By: Ricardo de Sao Joao (0714856G) Supervised By: Mrs Leaza Jernberg Co-Supervised By: Dr. Jacqui Ala February, 2013 Abstract In this thesis, the continuous dialogue between state-centered and human-centered approaches to security studies is discussed in the context of their ability to explain emerging threats within the international system. One emerging threat that has received a particularly large amount of attention is the possibility of water wars in the future. Water Wars are deemed to be conflicts that have water as their primary driving force, both in the onset and continuation. Through the use of the Chad River Basin and the Nile River Basin, this thesis will determine how each approach to security studies explains a particular conflict over water by, considering how each of them explain a “water war” within these Basins. Importantly, through this approach, the thesis aims to determine in what way, if any, the human- centered approach offers a better explanation to water-related conflict than state-centered security. In doing so, the thesis unpacks the various factors relating to the use, distribution and management of shared watercourses. While the findings in this thesis are not exhaustive, it is hoped that it will provide insight into how one ought to understand who is likely to be party to water wars and what is likely to be threatened in these water wars. ii Table of Contents Abstract ii Declaration v Dedication vi Acknowledgements vii List of Abbreviations Used viii List of Figures x Chapter 1 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 Problem Statement 2 1.3 Rationale for this Research 3 1.4 Literature Review 4 1.4.1 Arguments in Favour of the water wars hypothesis 6 1.4.2Arguments against the Water Wars Hypothesis: 10 1.4.3 Water-Related Rather than Water Wars 15 1.5 Methodology 17 1.6 Clarification and Scope of Terms 18 Chapter 2 23 The State-Centric and Human-Centric Approaches to Security 23 2.1 Introduction 23 2.2 The State-Centered Approach to Security 24 2.2.1 Theoretical Background 24 2.2.2 State-Cantered Security in the Context of Water 27 2.3 The Human-Centric Approach to Security 31 2.3.1Theoretical Background 31 2.3.2 Human Security: The Epitome of non-militarized security 33 2.3.3 Human Security in the International System 34 2.3.4Criticisms of Human-Security 35 2.3.5Broad versus Narrow Definitions 36 2.3.6 No Distinction between Human Security and State Security? 39 2.4 Human Security Issues in the Context of Water 41 2.4.1Does Universal Appeal imply Universal Application? 44 2.5 Conclusion 45 Chapter 3 47 Water Wars in West Africa? The Case of Hydropolitical tension in the Chad River Basin 47 3.1Introduction: 47 3.2 Background: Water Resources of the Chad River Basin 48 3.2.1Geographical location and attributes 48 3.2.2 The Lake Chad: A focus on Water Depletion and its impact on Foreign Relations 50 3.2.3 Riparian Countries of the Lake Chad River Basin 53 3.2.4 The use of Water Withdrawals by Riparian Countries 54 ii 3.2.4.1 Industrial use of Water in the Lake Chad River Basin 55 3.2.4.2 Agricultural and Domestic: Water and the sustenance of life in the Chad River Basin 57 3.2.5 Population in the Chad River Basin and Lake Chad Region 60 3.2.6 Water Management in the Chad Basin 65 3.2.7 Conclusion 68 3.3 Conflict over Water Resources in the Chad River Basin: Cameroon v Nigeria 69 3.3.1 Background: Two issues; one dispute 69 3.3.2 From Tension to Conflict on the borders of Cameroon and Nigeria 74 3.3.3 The Militarization of the Border Dispute 75 3.3.4 The End of the Bakassi Peninsula and Lake Chad Dispute 78 3.4 State-Centered versus Human Centered Approaches: The Bakassi and Lake Chad case 80 3.4.1 Analysing the State-Centred Approach 80 3.4.2 Analysing the Human-Centred Approach 85 3.4.2.1The Human-Centred Approach: the case of Nigeria and Cameroon 86 3.4.2.2 Human-Centered Factors and their impact on the territorial occupation in the Lake Chad Region 88 3.4.3 Current Day Affairs in the Bakassi and Lake Chad 91 3.5 Conclusion 94 Chapter 4 95 Conflict over Water in the Nile Basin: The Case of the Suez Canal Crisis of 1956 95 4.1 Introduction 95 4.2 Background 97 4.2.1 Distribution of the Nile River Basin Water Courses amongst riparian countries 99 (Source: Karyabwite, 2000) 99 4.2.2.1: Watercourses of the Nile Basin: An Overview 100 4.2.2 Uses of the Nile Basin amongst riparian countries 106 4.2.5.1 Agricultural and Domestic Use 107 4.2.5.2Industrial Uses 110 4.2.6 Population and Socioeconomic Data 113 Water Poverty Nexus Explained? 116 (Source: State of the Nile Basin, 2012) 119 4.2.2 Inter-Basin Water Management in the Nile Basin 120 4.2.7 Conclusion to Background 125 4.3 Conflict over Water in the Nile Basin: The Suez Crisis of 1956 126 4.3.1Mediation Efforts 128 4.3.2 From Mediation to Conflict 129 4.3.4Abbreviated Chronology of Events 132 4.4 Analysis of the Suez Crisis as a form a Water Wars 133 4.4.1The State-Centred Approach: 133 4.4.2The Human Security Approach 136 4.2.1 If not the Suez the Suez Crisis, can Egypt’s emphasis on water be explained through human centered security? 138 4.5 Current State of Affairs in the Nile Basin 141 4.6 Conclusion 143 Chapter 5 144 Conclusion 144 iii 5.1 Introduction 144 5.2 Similarities and Differences between the Chad Basin and the Nile Basin 144 5.3 Findings 146 5.3.1 What is Water’s Causal Role? 146 5.3.2 Post-Colonial Africa and Water 148 5.4 Limitations of this research 149 5.5 Suggestions for future research 151 5.4 General Conclusion 152 Bibliography (by Chapter) 153 Chapter 1 153 Chapter 2 157 Chapter 3 160 Chapter 4 164 Chapter 5 168 iv Declaration I, Ricardo de Sao Joao, declare that this work is my own unaided, original work unless, where I have explicitly indicated otherwise. I have followed the referencing conventions of the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg. In addition, I declare that this work has not been submitted to any other University for Degree Purposes. Signed on…………of…………………………….., 2013 ……………………………………………. Ricardo de Sao Joao Johannesburg v Dedication For My Mommy in Heaven, Rest in Peace And All those who lost their brave battle with Cancer vi Acknowledgements Firstly I need to extend my most sincere gratitude to my Supervisors, Mrs. Leaza Jernberg and Dr. Jacqui Ala for their endless patience, advice and guidance in this project. Without your inspiration and dedication this project would not have been possible. To my dearest friends (and partners-in-crime) Esther Caddy, Chantelle Holthuis, and Katherine Xiong, you have truly made the experience of writing this work (and many others) bearable through constant laughs and support, during our many PiG lunches and Guitar Hero battles. To my Colleagues in the Student Development and Leadership Unit (S.D.L.U.), in the Division of Student Affairs, thank you for support in this project, especially given the short time you have been acquainted with me. I need to especially thank my Head of Department, Mrs. Lamese Abrahams for your sincere support in allowing me the opportunity, at various times, to dedicate my time towards the completion of this project. To my Father and Friend, Mario de Sao Joao words cannot begin to describe the gratitude I have for your support and dedication during the time taken to complete this project. Your willingness to accompany me through the (long and deep) trenches of academia is truly appreciated. Without you this work would, quite literally, not have been possible. To my family who take care of me, most especially my Grandmother and my Aunt thank you for the endless dinners you have prepared for me while I focused my attention on writing. Also to Christo van der Merwe for your encouragement in the completion of this work. vii List of Abbreviations Used CAR Central African Republic CSS Critical Security Studies ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States EU European Union ECSC European Coal and Steel Community FAO Food and Agricultural Organisation FDI Foreign Direct Investment GDP Gross Domestic Product GEF Global Environment Facility GWP Global Water Project HDI Human Development Index ICJ International Court of Justice IPCC International Panel for Climate Change IPE International Political Economy IRCC International Red Cross Committee ISS International Security Studies LCBC Lake Chad Basin Commission LHWP Lesotho Highlands Water Project NBI Nile Basin Initiative MENA Middle East and North Africa TRWR Total Renewable Water Resources UN United Nations UNESCO United Nations Educational, Social and Cultural Organisation UNEP United Nations Environmental Program viii UNSC United Nations Security Council UNSG United Nations Secretary General USSR Union of Socialist Soviet Republics WB World Bank ix List of Figures Figure 1: Water-Stress Indicator versus needed to sustain population growth……………………….21 Figure 2: The Project of Critical Security Studies…………………………………………………….32 Figure 3: Chad River Basin…………………………………………………………………………...47 Figure 4: Surface Area of Basin Amongst LCBC…………………………………………………….48 Figure 5: The Vanishing Lake Chad…………………………………………………………………..51 Figure 6: Water Withdrawals By Sector in the Chad Basin-LCBC Countries………………………..53 Figure 7: GDP and GDP per capita in LCBC…………………………………………………………54 Figure 8: Population and Population Projection for
Load more

Recommended publications
  • The Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP): Water, Counterinsurgency, and Conflict”
    “The Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP): water, counterinsurgency, and conflict” By Laura Meijer Course “Food Security in International Politics: The Middle East and Africa” Taught by Dr Eckart Woertz Spring 2018 This paper has received the Kuwait Program at Sciences Po Student Paper Award The copyright of this paper remains the property of its author. No part of the content may be reproduced, published, distributed, copied or stored for public or private use without written permission of the author. All authorisation requests should be sent to [email protected] Laura Meijer 10/5/2018 "They [PKK] say: 'We are against dams'," he said, adding: "[But] if there are no dams and no ponds then we cannot bring irrigation or drinking water to cities? If there was no Atatürk Dam, how could we bring water to [the Turkish province] Şanlıurfa?," the minister asked.” 1 1. Introduction The Southeastern Anatolia Project (Güneydoğu Anadolu Projesi (GAP)) is one of the largest and most controversial dam projects existing worldwide.2 The project, which started in the 1960s and is ongoing since, has led to the construction of 15 dams, and the area covered by the GAP constitutes more than 10% of the Turkish territory.3 While the Turkish Ministry of Development claims that the GAP is a regional development project, improving the region’s socio-economic status through the provision of hydro-electric energy and irrgation4, the GAP has been criticized for its negative effects on the natural environment, cultural heritage and population in the GAP region.5 Since the GAP region is largely inhabited by Kurds, the GAP has furthermore been linked to the ‘Kurdish Question’6, most notably through the ongoing violent conflict between the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK) and the Turkish state.7 Indeed, as the above statement by Turkey’s Minister of Forestry and Water affairs, Mr.
    [Show full text]
  • Water Wars: the Brahmaputra River and Sino-Indian Relations
    U.S. Naval War College U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons CIWAG Case Studies 10-2013 Water Wars: The Brahmaputra River and Sino-Indian Relations Mark Christopher Follow this and additional works at: https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/ciwag-case-studies Recommended Citation Christopher, Mark, "MIWS_07 - Water Wars: The Brahmaputra River and Sino-Indian Relations" (2013). CIWAG Case Studies. 7. https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/ciwag-case-studies/7 This Book is brought to you for free and open access by U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in CIWAG Case Studies by an authorized administrator of U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Draft as of 121916 ARF R W ARE LA a U nd G A E R R M R I E D n o G R R E O T U N P E S C U N E IT EG ED L S OL TA R C TES NAVAL WA Water Wars: The Brahmaputra River and Sino-Indian Relations Mark Christopher United States Naval War College Newport, Rhode Island Water Wars: The Brahmaputra River and Sino-Indian Relations Mark Christopher Center on Irregular Warfare & Armed Groups (CIWAG) US Naval War College, Newport, RI [email protected] CHRISTOPHER: WATER WARS CIWAG Case Studies Bureaucracy Does Its Thing (in Afghanistan) – Todd Greentree Operationalizing Intelligence Dominance – Roy Godson An Operator’s Guide to Human Terrain Teams – Norman Nigh Organizational Learning and the Marine Corps: The Counterinsurgency Campaign in Iraq – Richard Shultz Piracy – Martin Murphy Reading the Tea Leaves: Proto-Insurgency in Honduras – John D.
    [Show full text]
  • Water Conflicts in Historical Time (Ca 750 BC–330 AD) 3.1
    sustainability Review Water Conflicts: From Ancient to Modern Times and in the Future Andreas N. Angelakis 1,2 , Mohammad Valipour 3,*, Abdelkader T. Ahmed 4,5 , Vasileios Tzanakakis 6, Nikolaos V. Paranychianakis 7, Jens Krasilnikoff 8, Renato Drusiani 9, Larry Mays 10 , Fatma El Gohary 11, Demetris Koutsoyiannis 12 , Saifullah Khan 13 and Luigi Joseph Del Giacco 14 1 HAO-Demeter, Agricultural Research Institution of Crete, 71300 Iraklion, Greece; [email protected] 2 Union of Water Supply and Sewerage Enterprises, 41222 Larissa, Greece 3 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Water Resources Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA 4 Civil Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Aswan University, Aswan 81542, Egypt; [email protected] 5 Civil Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Islamic University, Madinah 42351, Saudi Arabia 6 Department of Agriculture, School of Agricultural Science, Hellenic Mediterranean University, 71410 Iraklion, Greece; [email protected] 7 School of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Crete, 73100 Chania, Greece; [email protected] 8 Department of History and Classical Studies, School of Culture and Society, Aarhus University, 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark; [email protected] 9 Utilitalia, Piazza Cola di Rienzo, 00192 Roma, Italy; [email protected] 10 School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85281, USA; [email protected] 11 National Research Centre, Water Pollution
    [Show full text]
  • Weaponization of Water in a Changing Climate Marcus D
    EPICENTERS OF CLIMATE AND SECURITY: THE NEW GEOSTRATEGIC LANDSCAPE OF THE ANTHROPOCENE June 2017 Edited by: Caitlin E. Werrell and Francesco Femia Sponsored by: In partnership with: WATER WEAPONIZATION THE WEAPONIZATION OF WATER IN A CHANGING CLIMATE Marcus D. King1 and Julia Burnell 2,3 Water stress across the Middle East and Africa is providing an opportunity for subnational extremist organizations waging internal conflict to wield water as a weapon. The weaponization of water also drives conflict that transcends national borders, creating international ripple effects that contribute to a changing geostrategic landscape. Climate change-driven water stress in arid and semi-arid countries is a growing trend. This stress includes inadequacies in water supply, quality, and accessibility.4 These countries are consistently experiencing chronically dry climates and unpredictable, yet prevalent, droughts. Predicted future climate impacts include higher temperatures, longer dry seasons, and increased variability in precipitation. In the coming decades, these factors will continue to stress water resources in most arid regions.5 It is accepted wisdom that parties generally cooperate over scarce water resources at both the international and subnational levels, with a very few notable exceptions that have resulted in internal, low-intensity conflict.6 However, tensions have always existed: the word rivalry comes from the Latin word rivalus, meaning he who shares a river.7 Rivalry is growing at the sub-state level, leading to intractable conflicts. Social scientists have long observed a correlation between environmental scarcity and subnational conflict that is persistent and diffuse.8 Disputes over limited natural resources have played at least some role in 40 percent of all intrastate conflicts in the last 60 years.9 The Center for Climate and Security www.climateandsecurity.org EPICENTERS OF CLIMATE AND SECURITY 67 Recent scholarly literature and intelligence forecasts have also raised doubts that water stress will continue to engender more cooperation than conflict.
    [Show full text]
  • A Review of the Social Science Literature on the Causes of Conflict
    Research Report Understanding Conflict Trends A Review of the Social Science Literature on the Causes of Conflict Stephen Watts, Jennifer Kavanagh, Bryan Frederick, Tova C. Norlen, Angela O’Mahony, Phoenix Voorhies, Thomas S. Szayna Prepared for the United States Army Approved for public release; distribution unlimited ARROYO CENTER For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/rr1063z1 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2017 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface The recent spike in violence in places like Syria, Ukraine, and Yemen notwithstanding, the number of conflicts worldwide has fallen since the end of the Cold War, and few of those that remain are clashes between states.
    [Show full text]
  • Water Conflict Pathways and Peacebuilding Strategies by David Michel
    PEACEWORKS Water Conflict Pathways and Peacebuilding Strategies By David Michel NO. 164 | AUGUST 2020 NO. 164 | AUGUST 2020 ABOUT THE REPORT This report explores water-related conflict pathways and articulates potential peace- building strategies to mitigate conflict risks. The report is grounded in a survey of the ECONOMICS & ENVIRONMENT academic literature on natural resources conflict, case studies of three major basins, and participant interviews and documentary analyses of water diplomacy processes. ABOUT THE AUTHOR David Michel is a senior researcher with the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. He previously served as a senior manager at the Stockholm International Water Institute. He has over twenty years of experience working with governments, civil society, and the private sector to build cooperative solutions to policy challenges posed by global environmental change. Cover photo: A woman walks along a dry lake bed near the Rawal Dam in Pakistan on June 22, 2018. (Photo by B. K. Bangash/AP) The views expressed in this report are those of the author alone. They do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Institute of Peace. An online edition of this and related reports can be found on our website (www.usip.org), together with additional information on the subject. © 2020 by the United States Institute of Peace United States Institute of Peace 2301 Constitution Avenue NW Washington, DC 20037 Phone: 202.457.1700 Fax: 202.429.6063 E-mail: [email protected] Web: www.usip.org Peaceworks No. 164. First published 2020. ISBN: 978-1-60127-810-4 Contents Water Insecurity and Conflict Risks 3 Water Conflict Pathways 7 Case Study: The Indus River Basin 10 Case Study: Mali 14 Case Study: Myanmar 18 Water Governance and Water Diplomacy 22 Peacebuilding Strategies for Water Resources Conflicts 26 USIP.ORG 1 Summary Growing populations and economies, unsustainable management practices, and mounting environmental pressures are exerting increasing strains on the world’s vital freshwater resources.
    [Show full text]
  • Water, Security, and Conflict
    ISSUE BRIEF WATER, SECURITY, AND CONFLICT PETER GLEICK AND CHARLES ICELAND HIGHLIGHTS ▪ A wide range of water-related risks undermine human well-being and can contribute to political instability, violent conflict, human displacement and migration, and acute food insecurity, which in turn can undermine national, regional, and even global security. ▪ Political instability and conflicts are rarely caused by any single factor, such as a water crisis. Instead, water crises should be seen as contributing factors to instability. ▪ While water risks have threatened human civilizations over millennia, today’s global population growth and economic expansion—together with threats from climate change—create a new urgency around an old problem. ▪ We classify water and security pathways under three broad categories: diminished water supply or quality, increased water demand, and extreme flood events. ▪ Water risk is not only a function of hazards, such as extreme droughts and floods, it is also a function of a community’s governance capacity and resilience in the face of natural hazards. ▪ No single strategy is sufficient to reduce water risk. Instead, multifaceted approaches will be needed. WRI.ORG EXECUTIVE SUMMARY migration, and food insecurity are much more likely if governance is CONTENTS Context weak, infrastructure is inadequate, 2 Executive Summary Water has played a key role and institutions are fragile. in human security through- Although water risks are grow- 3 Introduction out history, but attention to ing worldwide, there are many water-related threats has been 4 Water in a risk-reducing options avail- Dynamic World growing in recent years due to able to decision-makers. Some increasing water risks.
    [Show full text]
  • Environment, Geography, and the Future of Warfare
    THE FUTURE OF WARFARE Environment, Geography, and the Future of Warfare The Changing Global Environment and Its Implications for the U.S. Air Force SHIRA EFRON, KURT KLEIN, AND RAPHAEL S. COHEN C O R P O R A T I O N RR2849z5_cover_2020_dw.indd All Pages 5/6/20 2:58 PM For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2849z5 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0299-8 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2020 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover: Senior Airman Brittain Crolley, U.S. Air Force Spine: combo1982/Getty Images, matejmo/Getty Images, StudioM1/Getty Images Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.
    [Show full text]
  • Transboundary Water-Conflict in the Indian Subcontinent
    Oberlin Digital Commons at Oberlin Honors Papers Student Work 2020 The Politicization of Water: Transboundary Water-Conflict in the Indian Subcontinent Ananya Gupta Oberlin College Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.oberlin.edu/honors Part of the Environmental Studies Commons Repository Citation Gupta, Ananya, "The Politicization of Water: Transboundary Water-Conflict in the Indian Subcontinent" (2020). Honors Papers. 690. https://digitalcommons.oberlin.edu/honors/690 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Student Work at Digital Commons at Oberlin. It has been accepted for inclusion in Honors Papers by an authorized administrator of Digital Commons at Oberlin. For more information, please contact [email protected]. The Politicization of Water: Transboundary Water-Conflict in the Indian Subcontinent Ananya Gupta 1 Table of Content Introduction……..………………………………………………………..............3-7 Literature Review .………………………………………………….…………..8-22 - The Relationship between Climate Change and Water.... …..........8-12 - The Relationship between Climate Change and Conflict……......12-15 - The Relationship Between Water and Conflict….………...….....15-17 - The Relationship Between Rhetoric and Conflict………....….…17-22 Methodology...…………………...…………………………………….......….23-24 Case Study 1 India-Pakistan…. ….……………………………………............25-36 - Background ………….…………………....…………………......25-28 - Results and Discussion………………..……………………...….29-36 Case Study 2 India-Bangladesh ….……………………………………............37-50 - Background
    [Show full text]
  • The Role of Water Stress in Instability and Conflict
    THE ROLE OF WATER STRESS IN INSTABILITY AND CONFLICT December 2017 UNLIMITED DISTRIBUTION Cover Image: Violent protest in Bolivia over government increases to the cost of water. Recommended Citation: CNA. 2017. The Role of Water Stress in Instability and Conflict. CRM-2017-U-016532. Final. CNA is a not-for-profit research and analysis organization dedicated to developing actionable solutions to complex problems of national importance. Approved for Unlimited Distribution Cheryl B. Rosenblum Executive Director, CNA Military Advisory Board Copyright© 2017 CNA THE ROLE OF WATER STRESS IN INSTABILITY AND CONFLICT To the reader: As senior military officers, we see water stress—the lack of adequate fresh water—as a growing factor in the world’s hot spots and conflict areas, many of vital interest to the United States. Our earlier reports have identified a nexus among climate, water, energy, and U.S. national security. We have previously shown how emerging resource scarcity across this nexus can be a threat multiplier and an accelerant of instability. With escalating global population and the impact of a changing climate, we see the challenges of water stress rising with time. It is in this context that we now seek to provide a better understanding of the mechanisms through which water factors into violence and conflict. This report examines the role of water across a spectrum from civil unrest and localized violence to terrorism, insurgencies, and civil wars to state-on- state conflict. Focusing on water-stressed areas of the world, it articulates the role water plays not only in diplomacy, violence, and conflict, but also how water can be used as a tool of coercion across the spectrum of conflict.
    [Show full text]
  • Water, Conflict, and Cooperation
    POLICY BRIEF • The United Nations and Environmental Security Water, Conflict, and Cooperation Fierce competition for fresh water may ing livelihoods, leading to destabilizing migra- well become a source of conflict and tion flows. Conflict prevention, conflict resolu- wars in the future. tion, and post-conflict reconstruction efforts Kofi Annan, March 2001 ignore water at their peril in key regions of the world (e.g., Southern and East Africa, including But the water problems of our world the Great Lakes region; the Middle East; and need not be only a cause of tension; Central, Southeast, and South Asia). they can also be a catalyst for coopera- Water has also proven to be a productive tion....If we work together, a secure and pathway for confidence building, cooperation, sustainable water future can be ours. and arguably, conflict prevention. Cooperative Kofi Annan, February 2002 incidents outnumbered conflicts by more than two to one from 1945-1999 (Wolf, Yoffe, & ater poses both a threat and an Giordano, 2003). The key variable is not opportunity for the UN system. absolute water scarcity, but the resilience of the W Increasing scarcity of clean fresh institutions that manage water and its associat- water impedes development, undercuts human ed tensions. In some cases, water provides one health, and plays critical roles along the conflict of the few paths for dialogue in otherwise heat- continuum between and within states. While ed bilateral conflicts. In politically unsettled rarely (if ever) starting a war between states, regions, water is often essential to regional ALEXANDER water allocation is often a key sticking point in development negotiations that serve as de facto CARIUS, ending conflict and undertaking national and conflict-prevention strategies.
    [Show full text]
  • Climate Change and Violent Conflict: a Critical Literature Review
    Oxfam America Research Backgrounders Climate Change and Violent Conflict: A critical literature review Ellen Messer Contents Oxfam America’s Research Backgrounders .............................................. 3 Author information and acknowledgements ............................................... 4 Citations of this paper ................................................................................ 4 Executive summary .................................................................................... 5 Abbreviations ........................................................................................... 10 Overview .................................................................................................. 12 Introduction .............................................................................................. 12 Methodology ............................................................................................ 19 Structure of the paper .............................................................................. 20 Clarifying climate change causes conflict discourse ................................ 22 Defining and refining terms ...................................................................... 22 Causal connections .................................................................................. 27 Social scale .............................................................................................. 35 Substantive factors in climate change ..................................................... 39 Summary:
    [Show full text]