DOCSLIB.ORG

Linking Water Security Threats to Conflict

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Linking Water Security Threats to Conflict LINKING WATER SECURITY THREATS TO CONFLICT An exploration of pathways Background Report Sophie de Bruin, Joost Knoop, Hans Visser and Willem Ligtvoet August 2018 LINKING WATER SECURITY THREATS TO CONFLICT; AN EXPLORATION OF PATHWAYS © PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency The Hague, 2018 PBL publication number: 3039 Corresponding authors [email protected] [email protected] Authors Sophie de Bruin, Joost Knoop, Hans Visser and Willem Ligtvoet Acknowledgements Special thanks to our reviewers: Jeannette Beck, Ben ten Brink, Marcel Kok (all PBL), Wilfried ten Brinke (Blueland Consultancy), Louise van Schaik (Clingendael Institute). Graphics PBL Beeldredactie This publication can be downloaded from: www.pbl.nl/en. Parts of this publication may be reproduced, providing the source is stated, in the form: De Bruin S., Knoop J., Visser., H. and Ligtvoet W. (2018), Linking water security threats to conflict; an exploration of pathways. The Hague: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency is the national institute for strategic policy analysis in the fields of the environment, nature and spatial planning. We contribute to improving the quality of political and administrative decision-making by conducting outlook studies, analyses and evaluations in which an integrated approach is considered paramount. Policy relevance is the prime concern in all of our studies. We conduct solicited and unsolicited research that is both independent and scientifically sound. PBL | 2 Contents SUMMARY AND FINDINGS 4 SETTING THE SCENE 9 Aim of the study: better understanding water and conflict relations 9 International context and missing links 10 Report outline 11 CONCEPTUAL APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY 12 Defining the central concepts 12 Composing the pathways 14 An evidence–agreement approach 14 CONFLICT: DEFINITIONS, RISKS AND CONTESTATION 16 Six studies assessing causes of conflict 16 Geographical distribution of conflicts 20 The reverse relation: conflict and vulnerability to climate change 21 VIEWS AND FRAMES 22 Views 22 Frames 24 TEN PATHWAYS LINKING WATER TO CONFLICT 25 Local water stress 25 Variability in rainfall 27 A shortage of fertile land 30 Food price spikes 32 Migration and displacement 34 Economic shocks 38 The construction of mega dams 40 Water as weapon or strategic tool/measure 43 Water resources and reservoirs as strategic/military target 45 A melting Arctic 47 Overlapping mechanisms 50 DISCUSSION 51 Beyond the pathways 51 Immature science? Definitions and scales 51 Implications and importance 52 CONCLUSIONS 54 ANNEX 1 PROJECTIONS OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC TRENDS 58 Environmental conditions 60 Socio-economic variables 68 ANNEX 2 CONFLICT STATUS IN THE WORLD 70 REFERENCES 72 PBL | 3 Summary and findings Why this report? Water is linked to many processes and events, affecting people, economic activities and ecosystems in numerous ways. Current water stresses are increasing and projected to keep on rising, as a result of climate change, economic development, population growth and inadequate water management. The possible adverse impact of increasing water- and climate-related stress on conflict risk have recently gained the interest of a range of social, academic and political institutes. The emerging research field studying the interaction between water, climate and conflict risk is still developing and conclusions are divers and often contested due to biases rooted in differences in approaches, methods applied, and spatial and temporal scales. Three Dutch ministries—Infrastructure and Water Management; Foreign Affairs; Economic Affairs and Climate—requested PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency to explore future water-related challenges up to 2050, including the interaction between water and conflict. Within that context, this report explores the relationship between water, climate and conflict risk, based on an extensive literature scan, encompassing over 200 publications and reports. In addition to a general exploration using Internet search engines and snowball techniques, two databases were analysed that included water-related conflict events. The Water Conflict Chronology by the Pacific Institute and the environment, conflict, and cooperation (ECC) factbook by Adelphi. The cases in these databases that were based on peer-reviewed studies and those that were not older than 30 years1, were included in this study. To gain a better understanding of the interactions between water, climate and conflict risks, we focused on identifying: I. different views in the literature; II. various potential pathways linking water and climate to conflict risk, as found in literature. For these indentified pathways, following the IPCC approach, we tried to assess the confidence level based on direct evidence and agreement in the literature. Different views in the literature on the role of water in relation to political or violent conflict Water has a direct link with human security. Consensus exists over the projection that water-related stresses due to natural disasters and increasing competition over water will increase towards 2050. There is substantially less consensus in the scientific literature regarding the interaction between water and political or violent conflict. Overall, findings can be roughly divided into three groups, conceptualised in Figure S.1. One group of studies underline the direct role of climate and water in political or violent conflicts, frequently via the narrative that resource scarcity issues are linked to conflict. Other studies underling this view establish direct relationships using statistical methods, linking the increase in the prevalence of conflict to climatic and environmental changes, which supports the perspective of climatic change and changing water security being a major threat to global security. In line with this group of scientific studies, more policy-oriented studies present global warming and water-related issues as the ‘ultimate threat multiplier’ for conflict or label them as key drivers of conflict in the coming decade. 1 A few exceptions to this threshold of 30 years were made to include cases that were illustrative for the particular pathway. PBL | 4 A second group of studies is less explicit about the direct role of water in political or violent conflicts. At the most, these studies conclude that water is a subdominant factor, stressing the fact that a mix of determining factors are decisive, such as population density, demographic composition, governmental structures, poverty and inequality, ethnic fractionalisation, history of conflicts in the area or the presence of a neighbouring conflict. Other studies point to the potential strategic value of water, for both cooperation and conflict. In these cases, water is an instrument rather than an underlying potential cause for conflict. These two political uses of water are not mutually exclusive; water may be an instrument for cooperation, often between riparian countries, whereas in other situations it can be used as a weapon. Figure S.1. Conceptual simplification of the debate on the link between water and conflict. Thus, we found studies ranging from alarmist reports, projecting mass migration and violent conflict due to drought and resource scarcity, holding conclusions often resonated by media, to nuanced case studies pointing to contextual factors such as conflict history, inequality and demographics as driving forces of future tension or even conflict. Overall, water-related issues, both today and for the future, are not considered to be the sole reason of conflict. Finding common ground: uncertainties and contextual factors To better understand the possible role of water in relation to conflict, 10 pathways are identified that link water to conflict, based on the literature. These pathways summarise the landscape of potential water–conflict linkages and provide common ground for analysing and discussing the underlying evidence for these linkages and the agreement in the literature. Because context is crucial, contextual factors are included per pathway, to understand under what conditions certain pathways may play out. To understand what factors increase conflict risk, in general, Chapter 3 describes conflict studies in the literature. In conflict research, definitions, timescales, frames and the use of variables differ widely, affecting conclusions and recommendations. Stability of government institutions (‘effective governance’), a country’s history of conflict, neighbouring conflict, resource curse, economic conditions, level of education and demographics are all factors that may play a role in the development of PBL | 5 conflict. Especially governance aspects and economic inequality have been observed to play a role in conflicts related to water issues. To assess the level of confidence per pathway, we followed the IPCC approach, by defining the evidence and level of agreement, for a specific pathway. This was done in a semi- quantitative way, based on the number of peer-reviewed case studies in combination with the nature of the evidence, and on the percentage of peer-reviewed studies that draw similar conclusions. Ten pathways linking water to conflict risk Table S.1 summarises the 10 pathways discussed in this report. Dozens of case studies were found to discuss these linkages, although their conclusions and methods differ widely. The pathway explaining the use of water as a weapon during conflict is the only pathway that is rather undisputed.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • The Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP): Water, Counterinsurgency, and Conflict”
    “The Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP): water, counterinsurgency, and conflict” By Laura Meijer Course “Food Security in International Politics: The Middle East and Africa” Taught by Dr Eckart Woertz Spring 2018 This paper has received the Kuwait Program at Sciences Po Student Paper Award The copyright of this paper remains the property of its author. No part of the content may be reproduced, published, distributed, copied or stored for public or private use without written permission of the author. All authorisation requests should be sent to [email protected] Laura Meijer 10/5/2018 "They [PKK] say: 'We are against dams'," he said, adding: "[But] if there are no dams and no ponds then we cannot bring irrigation or drinking water to cities? If there was no Atatürk Dam, how could we bring water to [the Turkish province] Şanlıurfa?," the minister asked.” 1 1. Introduction The Southeastern Anatolia Project (Güneydoğu Anadolu Projesi (GAP)) is one of the largest and most controversial dam projects existing worldwide.2 The project, which started in the 1960s and is ongoing since, has led to the construction of 15 dams, and the area covered by the GAP constitutes more than 10% of the Turkish territory.3 While the Turkish Ministry of Development claims that the GAP is a regional development project, improving the region’s socio-economic status through the provision of hydro-electric energy and irrgation4, the GAP has been criticized for its negative effects on the natural environment, cultural heritage and population in the GAP region.5 Since the GAP region is largely inhabited by Kurds, the GAP has furthermore been linked to the ‘Kurdish Question’6, most notably through the ongoing violent conflict between the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK) and the Turkish state.7 Indeed, as the above statement by Turkey’s Minister of Forestry and Water affairs, Mr.
    [Show full text]
  • Water Wars: the Brahmaputra River and Sino-Indian Relations
    U.S. Naval War College U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons CIWAG Case Studies 10-2013 Water Wars: The Brahmaputra River and Sino-Indian Relations Mark Christopher Follow this and additional works at: https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/ciwag-case-studies Recommended Citation Christopher, Mark, "MIWS_07 - Water Wars: The Brahmaputra River and Sino-Indian Relations" (2013). CIWAG Case Studies. 7. https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/ciwag-case-studies/7 This Book is brought to you for free and open access by U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in CIWAG Case Studies by an authorized administrator of U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Draft as of 121916 ARF R W ARE LA a U nd G A E R R M R I E D n o G R R E O T U N P E S C U N E IT EG ED L S OL TA R C TES NAVAL WA Water Wars: The Brahmaputra River and Sino-Indian Relations Mark Christopher United States Naval War College Newport, Rhode Island Water Wars: The Brahmaputra River and Sino-Indian Relations Mark Christopher Center on Irregular Warfare & Armed Groups (CIWAG) US Naval War College, Newport, RI [email protected] CHRISTOPHER: WATER WARS CIWAG Case Studies Bureaucracy Does Its Thing (in Afghanistan) – Todd Greentree Operationalizing Intelligence Dominance – Roy Godson An Operator’s Guide to Human Terrain Teams – Norman Nigh Organizational Learning and the Marine Corps: The Counterinsurgency Campaign in Iraq – Richard Shultz Piracy – Martin Murphy Reading the Tea Leaves: Proto-Insurgency in Honduras – John D.
    [Show full text]
  • Water Conflicts in Historical Time (Ca 750 BC–330 AD) 3.1
    sustainability Review Water Conflicts: From Ancient to Modern Times and in the Future Andreas N. Angelakis 1,2 , Mohammad Valipour 3,*, Abdelkader T. Ahmed 4,5 , Vasileios Tzanakakis 6, Nikolaos V. Paranychianakis 7, Jens Krasilnikoff 8, Renato Drusiani 9, Larry Mays 10 , Fatma El Gohary 11, Demetris Koutsoyiannis 12 , Saifullah Khan 13 and Luigi Joseph Del Giacco 14 1 HAO-Demeter, Agricultural Research Institution of Crete, 71300 Iraklion, Greece; [email protected] 2 Union of Water Supply and Sewerage Enterprises, 41222 Larissa, Greece 3 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Water Resources Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA 4 Civil Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Aswan University, Aswan 81542, Egypt; [email protected] 5 Civil Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Islamic University, Madinah 42351, Saudi Arabia 6 Department of Agriculture, School of Agricultural Science, Hellenic Mediterranean University, 71410 Iraklion, Greece; [email protected] 7 School of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Crete, 73100 Chania, Greece; [email protected] 8 Department of History and Classical Studies, School of Culture and Society, Aarhus University, 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark; [email protected] 9 Utilitalia, Piazza Cola di Rienzo, 00192 Roma, Italy; [email protected] 10 School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85281, USA; [email protected] 11 National Research Centre, Water Pollution
    [Show full text]
  • Weaponization of Water in a Changing Climate Marcus D
    EPICENTERS OF CLIMATE AND SECURITY: THE NEW GEOSTRATEGIC LANDSCAPE OF THE ANTHROPOCENE June 2017 Edited by: Caitlin E. Werrell and Francesco Femia Sponsored by: In partnership with: WATER WEAPONIZATION THE WEAPONIZATION OF WATER IN A CHANGING CLIMATE Marcus D. King1 and Julia Burnell 2,3 Water stress across the Middle East and Africa is providing an opportunity for subnational extremist organizations waging internal conflict to wield water as a weapon. The weaponization of water also drives conflict that transcends national borders, creating international ripple effects that contribute to a changing geostrategic landscape. Climate change-driven water stress in arid and semi-arid countries is a growing trend. This stress includes inadequacies in water supply, quality, and accessibility.4 These countries are consistently experiencing chronically dry climates and unpredictable, yet prevalent, droughts. Predicted future climate impacts include higher temperatures, longer dry seasons, and increased variability in precipitation. In the coming decades, these factors will continue to stress water resources in most arid regions.5 It is accepted wisdom that parties generally cooperate over scarce water resources at both the international and subnational levels, with a very few notable exceptions that have resulted in internal, low-intensity conflict.6 However, tensions have always existed: the word rivalry comes from the Latin word rivalus, meaning he who shares a river.7 Rivalry is growing at the sub-state level, leading to intractable conflicts. Social scientists have long observed a correlation between environmental scarcity and subnational conflict that is persistent and diffuse.8 Disputes over limited natural resources have played at least some role in 40 percent of all intrastate conflicts in the last 60 years.9 The Center for Climate and Security www.climateandsecurity.org EPICENTERS OF CLIMATE AND SECURITY 67 Recent scholarly literature and intelligence forecasts have also raised doubts that water stress will continue to engender more cooperation than conflict.
    [Show full text]
  • A Review of the Social Science Literature on the Causes of Conflict
    Research Report Understanding Conflict Trends A Review of the Social Science Literature on the Causes of Conflict Stephen Watts, Jennifer Kavanagh, Bryan Frederick, Tova C. Norlen, Angela O’Mahony, Phoenix Voorhies, Thomas S. Szayna Prepared for the United States Army Approved for public release; distribution unlimited ARROYO CENTER For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/rr1063z1 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2017 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface The recent spike in violence in places like Syria, Ukraine, and Yemen notwithstanding, the number of conflicts worldwide has fallen since the end of the Cold War, and few of those that remain are clashes between states.
    [Show full text]
  • Water Conflict Pathways and Peacebuilding Strategies by David Michel
    PEACEWORKS Water Conflict Pathways and Peacebuilding Strategies By David Michel NO. 164 | AUGUST 2020 NO. 164 | AUGUST 2020 ABOUT THE REPORT This report explores water-related conflict pathways and articulates potential peace- building strategies to mitigate conflict risks. The report is grounded in a survey of the ECONOMICS & ENVIRONMENT academic literature on natural resources conflict, case studies of three major basins, and participant interviews and documentary analyses of water diplomacy processes. ABOUT THE AUTHOR David Michel is a senior researcher with the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. He previously served as a senior manager at the Stockholm International Water Institute. He has over twenty years of experience working with governments, civil society, and the private sector to build cooperative solutions to policy challenges posed by global environmental change. Cover photo: A woman walks along a dry lake bed near the Rawal Dam in Pakistan on June 22, 2018. (Photo by B. K. Bangash/AP) The views expressed in this report are those of the author alone. They do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Institute of Peace. An online edition of this and related reports can be found on our website (www.usip.org), together with additional information on the subject. © 2020 by the United States Institute of Peace United States Institute of Peace 2301 Constitution Avenue NW Washington, DC 20037 Phone: 202.457.1700 Fax: 202.429.6063 E-mail: [email protected] Web: www.usip.org Peaceworks No. 164. First published 2020. ISBN: 978-1-60127-810-4 Contents Water Insecurity and Conflict Risks 3 Water Conflict Pathways 7 Case Study: The Indus River Basin 10 Case Study: Mali 14 Case Study: Myanmar 18 Water Governance and Water Diplomacy 22 Peacebuilding Strategies for Water Resources Conflicts 26 USIP.ORG 1 Summary Growing populations and economies, unsustainable management practices, and mounting environmental pressures are exerting increasing strains on the world’s vital freshwater resources.
    [Show full text]
  • Water, Security, and Conflict
    ISSUE BRIEF WATER, SECURITY, AND CONFLICT PETER GLEICK AND CHARLES ICELAND HIGHLIGHTS ▪ A wide range of water-related risks undermine human well-being and can contribute to political instability, violent conflict, human displacement and migration, and acute food insecurity, which in turn can undermine national, regional, and even global security. ▪ Political instability and conflicts are rarely caused by any single factor, such as a water crisis. Instead, water crises should be seen as contributing factors to instability. ▪ While water risks have threatened human civilizations over millennia, today’s global population growth and economic expansion—together with threats from climate change—create a new urgency around an old problem. ▪ We classify water and security pathways under three broad categories: diminished water supply or quality, increased water demand, and extreme flood events. ▪ Water risk is not only a function of hazards, such as extreme droughts and floods, it is also a function of a community’s governance capacity and resilience in the face of natural hazards. ▪ No single strategy is sufficient to reduce water risk. Instead, multifaceted approaches will be needed. WRI.ORG EXECUTIVE SUMMARY migration, and food insecurity are much more likely if governance is CONTENTS Context weak, infrastructure is inadequate, 2 Executive Summary Water has played a key role and institutions are fragile. in human security through- Although water risks are grow- 3 Introduction out history, but attention to ing worldwide, there are many water-related threats has been 4 Water in a risk-reducing options avail- Dynamic World growing in recent years due to able to decision-makers. Some increasing water risks.
    [Show full text]
  • Environment, Geography, and the Future of Warfare
    THE FUTURE OF WARFARE Environment, Geography, and the Future of Warfare The Changing Global Environment and Its Implications for the U.S. Air Force SHIRA EFRON, KURT KLEIN, AND RAPHAEL S. COHEN C O R P O R A T I O N RR2849z5_cover_2020_dw.indd All Pages 5/6/20 2:58 PM For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2849z5 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0299-8 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2020 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover: Senior Airman Brittain Crolley, U.S. Air Force Spine: combo1982/Getty Images, matejmo/Getty Images, StudioM1/Getty Images Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.
    [Show full text]
  • Transboundary Water-Conflict in the Indian Subcontinent
    Oberlin Digital Commons at Oberlin Honors Papers Student Work 2020 The Politicization of Water: Transboundary Water-Conflict in the Indian Subcontinent Ananya Gupta Oberlin College Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.oberlin.edu/honors Part of the Environmental Studies Commons Repository Citation Gupta, Ananya, "The Politicization of Water: Transboundary Water-Conflict in the Indian Subcontinent" (2020). Honors Papers. 690. https://digitalcommons.oberlin.edu/honors/690 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Student Work at Digital Commons at Oberlin. It has been accepted for inclusion in Honors Papers by an authorized administrator of Digital Commons at Oberlin. For more information, please contact [email protected]. The Politicization of Water: Transboundary Water-Conflict in the Indian Subcontinent Ananya Gupta 1 Table of Content Introduction……..………………………………………………………..............3-7 Literature Review .………………………………………………….…………..8-22 - The Relationship between Climate Change and Water.... …..........8-12 - The Relationship between Climate Change and Conflict……......12-15 - The Relationship Between Water and Conflict….………...….....15-17 - The Relationship Between Rhetoric and Conflict………....….…17-22 Methodology...…………………...…………………………………….......….23-24 Case Study 1 India-Pakistan…. ….……………………………………............25-36 - Background ………….…………………....…………………......25-28 - Results and Discussion………………..……………………...….29-36 Case Study 2 India-Bangladesh ….……………………………………............37-50 - Background
    [Show full text]
  • The Role of Water Stress in Instability and Conflict
    THE ROLE OF WATER STRESS IN INSTABILITY AND CONFLICT December 2017 UNLIMITED DISTRIBUTION Cover Image: Violent protest in Bolivia over government increases to the cost of water. Recommended Citation: CNA. 2017. The Role of Water Stress in Instability and Conflict. CRM-2017-U-016532. Final. CNA is a not-for-profit research and analysis organization dedicated to developing actionable solutions to complex problems of national importance. Approved for Unlimited Distribution Cheryl B. Rosenblum Executive Director, CNA Military Advisory Board Copyright© 2017 CNA THE ROLE OF WATER STRESS IN INSTABILITY AND CONFLICT To the reader: As senior military officers, we see water stress—the lack of adequate fresh water—as a growing factor in the world’s hot spots and conflict areas, many of vital interest to the United States. Our earlier reports have identified a nexus among climate, water, energy, and U.S. national security. We have previously shown how emerging resource scarcity across this nexus can be a threat multiplier and an accelerant of instability. With escalating global population and the impact of a changing climate, we see the challenges of water stress rising with time. It is in this context that we now seek to provide a better understanding of the mechanisms through which water factors into violence and conflict. This report examines the role of water across a spectrum from civil unrest and localized violence to terrorism, insurgencies, and civil wars to state-on- state conflict. Focusing on water-stressed areas of the world, it articulates the role water plays not only in diplomacy, violence, and conflict, but also how water can be used as a tool of coercion across the spectrum of conflict.
    [Show full text]
  • Water, Conflict, and Cooperation
    POLICY BRIEF • The United Nations and Environmental Security Water, Conflict, and Cooperation Fierce competition for fresh water may ing livelihoods, leading to destabilizing migra- well become a source of conflict and tion flows. Conflict prevention, conflict resolu- wars in the future. tion, and post-conflict reconstruction efforts Kofi Annan, March 2001 ignore water at their peril in key regions of the world (e.g., Southern and East Africa, including But the water problems of our world the Great Lakes region; the Middle East; and need not be only a cause of tension; Central, Southeast, and South Asia). they can also be a catalyst for coopera- Water has also proven to be a productive tion....If we work together, a secure and pathway for confidence building, cooperation, sustainable water future can be ours. and arguably, conflict prevention. Cooperative Kofi Annan, February 2002 incidents outnumbered conflicts by more than two to one from 1945-1999 (Wolf, Yoffe, & ater poses both a threat and an Giordano, 2003). The key variable is not opportunity for the UN system. absolute water scarcity, but the resilience of the W Increasing scarcity of clean fresh institutions that manage water and its associat- water impedes development, undercuts human ed tensions. In some cases, water provides one health, and plays critical roles along the conflict of the few paths for dialogue in otherwise heat- continuum between and within states. While ed bilateral conflicts. In politically unsettled rarely (if ever) starting a war between states, regions, water is often essential to regional ALEXANDER water allocation is often a key sticking point in development negotiations that serve as de facto CARIUS, ending conflict and undertaking national and conflict-prevention strategies.
    [Show full text]
  • Climate Change and Violent Conflict: a Critical Literature Review
    Oxfam America Research Backgrounders Climate Change and Violent Conflict: A critical literature review Ellen Messer Contents Oxfam America’s Research Backgrounders .............................................. 3 Author information and acknowledgements ............................................... 4 Citations of this paper ................................................................................ 4 Executive summary .................................................................................... 5 Abbreviations ........................................................................................... 10 Overview .................................................................................................. 12 Introduction .............................................................................................. 12 Methodology ............................................................................................ 19 Structure of the paper .............................................................................. 20 Clarifying climate change causes conflict discourse ................................ 22 Defining and refining terms ...................................................................... 22 Causal connections .................................................................................. 27 Social scale .............................................................................................. 35 Substantive factors in climate change ..................................................... 39 Summary:
    [Show full text]