LINKING WATER SECURITY THREATS TO CONFLICT An exploration of pathways Background Report Sophie de Bruin, Joost Knoop, Hans Visser and Willem Ligtvoet August 2018 LINKING WATER SECURITY THREATS TO CONFLICT; AN EXPLORATION OF PATHWAYS © PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency The Hague, 2018 PBL publication number: 3039 Corresponding authors [email protected] [email protected] Authors Sophie de Bruin, Joost Knoop, Hans Visser and Willem Ligtvoet Acknowledgements Special thanks to our reviewers: Jeannette Beck, Ben ten Brink, Marcel Kok (all PBL), Wilfried ten Brinke (Blueland Consultancy), Louise van Schaik (Clingendael Institute). Graphics PBL Beeldredactie This publication can be downloaded from: www.pbl.nl/en. Parts of this publication may be reproduced, providing the source is stated, in the form: De Bruin S., Knoop J., Visser., H. and Ligtvoet W. (2018), Linking water security threats to conflict; an exploration of pathways. The Hague: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency is the national institute for strategic policy analysis in the fields of the environment, nature and spatial planning. We contribute to improving the quality of political and administrative decision-making by conducting outlook studies, analyses and evaluations in which an integrated approach is considered paramount. Policy relevance is the prime concern in all of our studies. We conduct solicited and unsolicited research that is both independent and scientifically sound. PBL | 2 Contents SUMMARY AND FINDINGS 4 SETTING THE SCENE 9 Aim of the study: better understanding water and conflict relations 9 International context and missing links 10 Report outline 11 CONCEPTUAL APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY 12 Defining the central concepts 12 Composing the pathways 14 An evidence–agreement approach 14 CONFLICT: DEFINITIONS, RISKS AND CONTESTATION 16 Six studies assessing causes of conflict 16 Geographical distribution of conflicts 20 The reverse relation: conflict and vulnerability to climate change 21 VIEWS AND FRAMES 22 Views 22 Frames 24 TEN PATHWAYS LINKING WATER TO CONFLICT 25 Local water stress 25 Variability in rainfall 27 A shortage of fertile land 30 Food price spikes 32 Migration and displacement 34 Economic shocks 38 The construction of mega dams 40 Water as weapon or strategic tool/measure 43 Water resources and reservoirs as strategic/military target 45 A melting Arctic 47 Overlapping mechanisms 50 DISCUSSION 51 Beyond the pathways 51 Immature science? Definitions and scales 51 Implications and importance 52 CONCLUSIONS 54 ANNEX 1 PROJECTIONS OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC TRENDS 58 Environmental conditions 60 Socio-economic variables 68 ANNEX 2 CONFLICT STATUS IN THE WORLD 70 REFERENCES 72 PBL | 3 Summary and findings Why this report? Water is linked to many processes and events, affecting people, economic activities and ecosystems in numerous ways. Current water stresses are increasing and projected to keep on rising, as a result of climate change, economic development, population growth and inadequate water management. The possible adverse impact of increasing water- and climate-related stress on conflict risk have recently gained the interest of a range of social, academic and political institutes. The emerging research field studying the interaction between water, climate and conflict risk is still developing and conclusions are divers and often contested due to biases rooted in differences in approaches, methods applied, and spatial and temporal scales. Three Dutch ministries—Infrastructure and Water Management; Foreign Affairs; Economic Affairs and Climate—requested PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency to explore future water-related challenges up to 2050, including the interaction between water and conflict. Within that context, this report explores the relationship between water, climate and conflict risk, based on an extensive literature scan, encompassing over 200 publications and reports. In addition to a general exploration using Internet search engines and snowball techniques, two databases were analysed that included water-related conflict events. The Water Conflict Chronology by the Pacific Institute and the environment, conflict, and cooperation (ECC) factbook by Adelphi. The cases in these databases that were based on peer-reviewed studies and those that were not older than 30 years1, were included in this study. To gain a better understanding of the interactions between water, climate and conflict risks, we focused on identifying: I. different views in the literature; II. various potential pathways linking water and climate to conflict risk, as found in literature. For these indentified pathways, following the IPCC approach, we tried to assess the confidence level based on direct evidence and agreement in the literature. Different views in the literature on the role of water in relation to political or violent conflict Water has a direct link with human security. Consensus exists over the projection that water-related stresses due to natural disasters and increasing competition over water will increase towards 2050. There is substantially less consensus in the scientific literature regarding the interaction between water and political or violent conflict. Overall, findings can be roughly divided into three groups, conceptualised in Figure S.1. One group of studies underline the direct role of climate and water in political or violent conflicts, frequently via the narrative that resource scarcity issues are linked to conflict. Other studies underling this view establish direct relationships using statistical methods, linking the increase in the prevalence of conflict to climatic and environmental changes, which supports the perspective of climatic change and changing water security being a major threat to global security. In line with this group of scientific studies, more policy-oriented studies present global warming and water-related issues as the ‘ultimate threat multiplier’ for conflict or label them as key drivers of conflict in the coming decade. 1 A few exceptions to this threshold of 30 years were made to include cases that were illustrative for the particular pathway. PBL | 4 A second group of studies is less explicit about the direct role of water in political or violent conflicts. At the most, these studies conclude that water is a subdominant factor, stressing the fact that a mix of determining factors are decisive, such as population density, demographic composition, governmental structures, poverty and inequality, ethnic fractionalisation, history of conflicts in the area or the presence of a neighbouring conflict. Other studies point to the potential strategic value of water, for both cooperation and conflict. In these cases, water is an instrument rather than an underlying potential cause for conflict. These two political uses of water are not mutually exclusive; water may be an instrument for cooperation, often between riparian countries, whereas in other situations it can be used as a weapon. Figure S.1. Conceptual simplification of the debate on the link between water and conflict. Thus, we found studies ranging from alarmist reports, projecting mass migration and violent conflict due to drought and resource scarcity, holding conclusions often resonated by media, to nuanced case studies pointing to contextual factors such as conflict history, inequality and demographics as driving forces of future tension or even conflict. Overall, water-related issues, both today and for the future, are not considered to be the sole reason of conflict. Finding common ground: uncertainties and contextual factors To better understand the possible role of water in relation to conflict, 10 pathways are identified that link water to conflict, based on the literature. These pathways summarise the landscape of potential water–conflict linkages and provide common ground for analysing and discussing the underlying evidence for these linkages and the agreement in the literature. Because context is crucial, contextual factors are included per pathway, to understand under what conditions certain pathways may play out. To understand what factors increase conflict risk, in general, Chapter 3 describes conflict studies in the literature. In conflict research, definitions, timescales, frames and the use of variables differ widely, affecting conclusions and recommendations. Stability of government institutions (‘effective governance’), a country’s history of conflict, neighbouring conflict, resource curse, economic conditions, level of education and demographics are all factors that may play a role in the development of PBL | 5 conflict. Especially governance aspects and economic inequality have been observed to play a role in conflicts related to water issues. To assess the level of confidence per pathway, we followed the IPCC approach, by defining the evidence and level of agreement, for a specific pathway. This was done in a semi- quantitative way, based on the number of peer-reviewed case studies in combination with the nature of the evidence, and on the percentage of peer-reviewed studies that draw similar conclusions. Ten pathways linking water to conflict risk Table S.1 summarises the 10 pathways discussed in this report. Dozens of case studies were found to discuss these linkages, although their conclusions and methods differ widely. The pathway explaining the use of water as a weapon during conflict is the only pathway that is rather undisputed.