TRENDS, CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES WATER AND CONFLICT Prevent and end conficts

Water and confict

Water is increasingly a trigger, weapon and casualty of confict—with signifcant humanitarian consequences. Water has not Countries and regions typically settle water management disputes peacefully. Long-standing best practices exist for traditionally been considered a primary driver of global confict; instead, it has been viewed as a compounding variable that international cooperation, such as the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, which divides the Indus River tributaries between India exacerbates existing social, economic and political tensions. However, old understandings and norms of cooperation around and Pakistan. By understanding the links between water and confict, policymakers and practitioners can better predict, water issues are being tested by climate change and population growth. Dramatic swings in seasonal water supplies threaten understand and react to water-related conficts across the globe, thereby preventing humanitarian crises. regional, local and global stability. In 2017, water played a major role in confict in at least 45 countries, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa. Yemen had the most water-related conficts with at least 28 individual events reported.

How are water and confict related? Trends in water-related conficts FIGURE 9

From 2014 through 2017, the number of confict events 71 triggered by water increased, Water can be any single element or a combination of them while water remained a critical 44 casualty of confict. 27 31 29

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Trigger Casualty Weapon Control and/or Water resources or Water resources Water confict hotspots in 2017 access to water water systems are or water systems or water systems intentional or incidental themselves are used The icons show examples of how Syria water was related to confict events. causes violence targets of violence. as tool or weapon 17 confict events of confict.

Trends in water-related conficts Afghanistan 5 confict events

4%4% 3% 3% 7% 7% 18% 3% 19% 11% 16%

2013 48% 2% 2014 2015

33% Mexico 57% 1% 65% 1 confict event 3% 3% 4% 10% Yemen 28 confict events KEY 38% Ghana 2016 42% 2017 51% Water was a: 2 confict events

48% Trigger

KEY Weapon Trigger Casualty Weapon Casualty Number of conficts, 2017 Trigger and casualty Trigger and weapon Casualty and weapon Weapon and casualty Weapon and casualty 1 to 6 7 to 12 13 to 18 19 to 24 25 to 30 Sources: Circle of Blue, The Pacifc Institute, Vector Center 34 35