POLICY BRIEF • The and Environmental Security

Water, Conflict, and Cooperation

Fierce competition for fresh may ing livelihoods, leading to destabilizing migra- well become a source of conflict and tion flows. Conflict prevention, conflict resolu- in the future. tion, and post-conflict reconstruction efforts Kofi Annan, March 2001 ignore water at their peril in key regions of the world (e.g., Southern and East Africa, including But the water problems of our world the region; the ; and need not be only a cause of tension; Central, Southeast, and South Asia). they can also be a catalyst for coopera- Water has also proven to be a productive tion....If we work together, a secure and pathway for confidence building, cooperation, sustainable water future can be ours. and arguably, conflict prevention. Cooperative Kofi Annan, February 2002 incidents outnumbered conflicts by more than two to one from 1945-1999 (Wolf, Yoffe, & ater poses both a threat and an Giordano, 2003). The key variable is not opportunity for the UN system. absolute , but the resilience of the W Increasing scarcity of clean fresh institutions that manage water and its associat- water impedes development, undercuts human ed tensions. In some cases, water provides one health, and plays critical roles along the conflict of the few paths for dialogue in otherwise heat- continuum between and within states. While ed bilateral conflicts. In politically unsettled rarely (if ever) starting a between states, regions, water is often essential to regional ALEXANDER water allocation is often a key sticking point in development negotiations that serve as de facto CARIUS, ending conflict and undertaking national and conflict-prevention strategies. The UN system GEOFFREY regional reconstruction and development. and its partners have ripe opportunities to capi- D. DABELKO, Within states, water scarcity can assume an talize on water’s cooperation promise while and increasingly contentious and violent role when, undercutting its conflict potential. AARON T. for example, water-dependent sectors such as WOLF irrigated can no longer sustain farm- Water-Related Violence: What, Where, and How?

Alexander Carius is the director of Water-related violence often occurs on the local Adelphi Research in Berlin, Germany, a rather than international level, and the intensity public policy research institute on envi- of conflict is generally inversely related to geo- graphic scale (Wolf, 1999). Even if internation- ronment, development, and foreign poli- al disputes over water-related issues do not typ- cy. Geoffrey D. Dabelko is the director of ically cause violent conflict, they have led to the Wilson Center’s Environmental interstate tensions and significantly hampered Change and Security Project. Aaron T. development, such as along the , , Wolf is associate professor of geography Euphrates, Amu Darya, Syr Darya, and Ganges in the Department of Geosciences at . And while conflicts often remain local, they can also impact stability at the national Oregon State University and the director and regional levels. of the Transboundary Freshwater The Basins at Risk project’s analytical tool 60 Dispute Database. helps identify areas where hydrological and

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political conditions suggest a higher likelihood ing. Migration—induced by lack of water, of conflict over water (Wolf et al., 2003). Based sudden and , infrastructure on extensive analysis of the world’s 263 interna- construction (e.g., dams), pollution disas- tional basins, the project hypothesizes that ters, or livelihood loss—can produce ten- “the likelihood of conflict rises as the rate of sions between local and incoming communi- change within the basin exceeds the institution- ties, especially when it increases pressure on al capacity to absorb that change.” Sudden phys- already scarce . And poverty due to ical changes or reduced institutional capacity are livelihood loss has been identified as a com- more conducive to disputes. Key examples mon denominator of the causes of conflict in include uncoordinated development of major most of the civil wars that emerged in Africa, projects that affect flow (e.g., dams) in the South Asia, and Latin America during the absence of a treaty or commission; basins that last decade (Ohlsson, 2000). suddenly become “internationalized,” as occurred in post-Soviet ; and gener- 3) Water management and conflict: In most al animosity among parties. This approach pro- cases, it is not the lack of water that leads to vides a set of indicators for monitoring potential conflict, but the inadequate way the hot spots, thus allowing us to get ahead of the is governed and managed. There are many “crisis curve” and promote institutional capacity reasons why water management fails, includ- in advance of intractable conflict. ing lack of adequate water institutions, inade- There are three major linkages between con- quate administrative capacity, lack of trans- flict and water: parency, ambiguous jurisdictions, overlapping functions, fragmented institutional struc- 1) Access to adequate water supplies: Conflict tures, and lack of necessary infrastructure. is most likely to occur over water when dis- putes involve access to water of adequate Water management is highly complex and quantity and quality. Even when water sup- extremely political. Balancing competing inter- plies are not severely limited, allocation of ests over water allocation and managing water water among different users and uses (urban scarcity require strong institutions. A reliable residents and agriculture, for example) can database, including meteorological, hydrologi- be highly contested. Degraded , cal, and socio-economic data, is a fundamental which can pose serious threats to health and tool for deliberate and farsighted management aggravate scarcity, is also a source of poten- of . Yet, reliable information is tially violent disputes. Finally, when water often difficult to obtain, especially in develop- supplies for broadly irrigated regions decline ing countries. Further, disparities among ripari- either in terms of quantity or quality, those ans’ capacity to generate, interpret, and legit- declines can spur migrations that could imize data can lead to mistrust and thus hinder politically destabilize the receiving cities or cooperative action. neighboring countries. Water management in many countries is also characterized by overlapping and competing 2) Water, livelihood loss, and civil conflict: responsibilities among government bodies. Water’s importance in sustaining human Disaggregated decision-making often produces livelihoods can indirectly link it to conflict. divergent management approaches that serve Water is a basic resource for agriculture, contradictory objectives and lead to competing which is traditionally the largest source of claims from different sectors. And such claims livelihoods. If this livelihood is no longer are even more likely to contribute to disputes in available, people are often forced to search countries where there is no formal system of for job opportunities in the cities or turn to water-use permits, or where enforcement and other, sometimes illicit, ways to make a liv- monitoring are inadequate. Controversy also 61

POLICY BRIEF • THE UNITED NATIONS AND ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY

often arises when management decisions are expert-to-expert (Track II) linkages along the formulated without sufficient participation by Jordan or Indus rivers. local communities and water users, thus failing Finally, a water peacemaking strategy can to take into account local rights and practices. create shared regional identities and institution- Protests are especially likely when the public alize cooperation on a broader range of issues. suspects that water allocations are diverting Examples of this dynamic include the institu- public resources for private gain or when water tionalized environmental cooperation around use rights are assigned in a secretive and possi- the Baltic Sea during the (Helsinki bly corrupt manner, as demonstrated by the Commission) and the current cooperation in violent confrontations in 2000 following the post-apartheid Southern Africa through the privatization of the water utility in Southern African Development Community Cochabamba, . (Conca & Dabelko, 2002).

Water as a Pathway to Peace The United Nations and Water, Conflict, and Cooperation Transboundary cooperation around water issues, which stems from a drive for sustain- Gaps able development in the face of shared stress, has a long and successful history. This devel- Water is a powerfully unifying resource, but opment imperative—not the fear of conflict because of its centrality to human and our per se—motivates countries to pursue tough, ecosystem, its management is generally diffused protracted negotiations such as the Nile Basin among the world’s agencies and institutions. The Initiative (NBI). UN is no exception: water-related expertise is Aggressively pursuing a water peacemaking spread throughout the system, including such strategy can provide dividends beyond water for bodies as UN Development Programme stakeholders. It can build trust and serve as an (UNDP), UN Environment Programme avenue for dialogue when parties are stalemated (UNEP), United Nations Educational, on other issues. Transboundary water institu- Scientific, and Cultural Organization tions have proven resilient, even as conflict is (UNESCO), United Nations Children’s Fund waged over other issues (e.g., the “Picnic Table (UNICEF), and Agriculture Organization Talks” between Jordan and Israel, Mekong (FAO), and the UN Economic Commissions, Committee, and Commission). along with partners like the World Bank and the This strategy can also establish habits of cooper- Global Environment Facility.2 The fragmenta- ation among states, some with little experience, tion of this impressive expertise has historically such as the states in the Kura-Araks basin in the prevented the UN from taking the lead in water- Caucasus, or the Central Asian states of the for- related conflict mitigation. To redress this prob- mer Soviet Union. lem, the UN system must integrate policy and Water can also be a key point in negotiating coordinate its extensive but diffuse expertise on the end of a conflict, even if water did not pre- water, conflict, and cooperation across its bodies. cipitate it. While water did not cause the wars International : The UN should between India and Pakistan, for example, an develop an integrated, systematic program of updated agreement on the Indus River has preventive water diplomacy based on modified played a central role in recent bilateral negotia- versions of the World Bank and Global tions to end the conflict. In addition, peace- Environment Facility frameworks. This pro- making through water issues can forge people- gram would (1) bolster early warning for to-people links, as demonstrated by the Good regions with potential for water conflicts (con- Water Makes Good Neighbors programs of the ducted by, for example, UNEP’s Division of 62 NGO Friends of the Earth Middle East or Early Warning and Assessment); (2) develop a

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systematic program for enhancing institutional capacity between nations, including reconciling national legal frameworks (perhaps led by FAO’s Development Law Service); and (3) craft, by unifying existing expertise, a “one-stop shop” for developing programs to enhance cooperation (such as UNESCO’s recently launched Water Cooperation Facility). All these efforts should integrate traditional conflict-pre- vention bodies, such UNDP’s Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, in both the design and use of these products and capacities. The UN must address a number of gaps that impede the implementation of this sys- tematic, integrated program. First, only a small number of experienced water-dispute facilita- tors are viewed as truly neutral. The World Bank has a few, but they are in short supply at Headwaters of the Nile River, Uganda (Credit: Inger Andersen) other UN bodies. The UN system should rebuild its ability by recruiting and training facilitators in hydrology, international law, flict, as can strengthening their capacity to gen- regional history, and conflict prevention (the erate and authorize relevant data (Turton, Universities Partnership for Transboundary 2003). A hydrological database that is accepted Waters offers a model for developing and exe- by all stakeholders is essential for any joint man- cuting this training). agement efforts, as it builds trust and enables Second, UN conveners and facilitators, and water-sharing parties to make decisions based on their bilateral funders, must be willing to sup- the same understanding of the situation. port long processes without requiring instant or While pursuing this integrated program, the easily measurable results. The World Bank’s 20- UN must avoid falling back on media-friendly year commitment to the NBI is an exemplary but historically inaccurate scare tactics like model, which the bank is reproducing in other warning of impending “water wars” between African basins. The UN should extend this states. This is not the appropriate frame for these model beyond Africa and encourage disparate issues because (1) most organized violence from UN bodies to cooperate as equal partners. water conflict occurs not between states, but at Third, to achieve sustainable implementation, the subnational and local levels or between sec- the UN must find ways to include all stake- tors; (2) the “water wars” angle discourages the holders throughout the process, in order to off- engagement of key developmental and environ- set the secrecy that traditionally surrounds mental partners in favor of security actors; (3) it high-level negotiations. Unlike the NBI, this does not easily lead to a program of action for should not wait until state-to-state agreements conflict prevention and human development; have been reached. and (4) we do not need to use violent conflict to Finally, the UN should seek to strengthen the prove that water is a matter of life and death. capacity of parties to negotiate contested water Indeed, by directly or indirectly contributing to issues. Disparities in capacity and knowledge two million to three million deaths annually, have often led to mistrust between riparian unsafe poses a primary challenge countries, hindering cooperative action. to human security, as recognized by both the Strengthening the negotiating skills of less pow- Millennium Development Goals and the erful riparians can therefore help prevent con- Johannesburg Plan of Implementation. 63

POLICY BRIEF • THE UNITED NATIONS AND ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY

1,700 State -to -State Water In te ra c tio ns in Transboundary B asins, 1946-1999

State-to-State Water Interactions in Transboundary Basins, 1946-1999

International 157 Water Treaty

Support 1071

Neutral Act 96

Hostility 507

Formal War 0

Source: Adapted from Wolf, Yoffe, & Giordano (2003)

Intranational level: Many countries need tion, helps mitigate conflicts and prevent dis- stronger internal policies to regulate water use putes from emerging during decision-making. and to enable equal and sustainable manage- ment of their water resources. The UN should Options help strengthen the institutional and legal frameworks for managing water resources at the What form would a systematic, integrated pro- national level. To ensure that these national gram of preventive diplomacy and water take? frameworks are implemented, the local level— Since most initiatives dealing with water, con- at which water is actually used—requires more flict, and cooperation are substantially under- assistance (e.g., developing management insti- funded and rarely reach beyond the project tutions on the catchment level and institution- level, the challenge for the international com- alizing community-based cooperative manage- munity is to create an obvious earmark for ment mechanisms). international water conflict and cooperation Regardless of the level of analysis, building funds, as the Global Fund is for HIV/AIDS, capacity for integrated water management and tuberculosis, and malaria. Such a fund could conflict prevention is a critical role for the UN. utilize water to build confidence and prevent Developing the human, technical, and adminis- conflict, assess water facilitation skills to match trative capacity to generate and analyze data, to capacity and opportunities, and reduce the develop sustainable management plans, and to number of overlapping and duplicative bilateral implement these plans is necessary to enable approaches. water institutions to fulfill their management As part of its program, the UN should cre- tasks and to prevent water-related disputes over ate a forum to identify and articulate the needs the long term. Building capacity in conflict- of Southern stakeholders for transboundary management techniques, such as mediation and water management, dispute resolution, and 64 facilitation, as well as in stakeholder participa- conflict transformation. Such forums as the

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World Commission on Water, Peace, and Conflict Management and Mitigation in the Bureau Security or the Water Cooperation Facility for Democracy, Conflict, and Humanitarian Assistance have already been proposed. The UN should of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID); see Kramer (2004). For more also seek to integrate existing networks and information on USAID’s Office of Conflict platforms that address water and security link- Management and Mitigation, visit ages in the South. http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/ In addition, water venues such as the 13th cross-cutting_programs/conflict/. Commission on Sustainable Development in 2. UN programs on water include the following: 2005, UN-Water, and the World Water • The Global Environment Facility (a partnership between the World Bank, UNDP, and UNEP) has an Assessment Programme must move beyond extensive program on international waters; see technical management questions and situate http://www.gefweb.org/. water and development issues in a larger peace • UNDP, through its program in Sustainable Water and security context, integrating lessons from Management, developed an extensive toolkit for effi- ongoing efforts like UNESCO’s Potential cient water use and shepherded the Global Water Partnership; see http://www.undp.org/water/ Conflict to Cooperation Potential (PCCP) pro- resource.html for more information. Since 1999, it has gram and UNEP’s Post-Conflict Assessment worked with the World Bank in an International Unit.3 By collaborating with these water Waters Partnership to “seek complimentarity in sup- forums, UN bodies focused on conflict could port of management of transboundary support the environmental priorities outlined resources” (http://www.undp.org/seed/water/ in the Secretary-General’s 2003 interim report region/partner.htm). UNDP’s Transboundary River Basin Initiative (TRIB) aims to foster inter-riparian on prevention of armed conflict (United dialogue to strengthen emerging basin institutions, and Nations, 2003). is currently providing focused support in the Mekong, Niger, Rio Frio, and Senegal basins. Conclusion • UNESCO’s International Hydrologic Programme (http://www.unesco.org/water/ihp/index.shtml) is now By establishing a program of preventive diplo- beginning its seventh cycle. More recently, UNESCO coordinated the World Water Assessment Programme, macy focused on water, the UN could coordi- designed to assess the state of the world’s water nate its extensive but diffuse expertise. Such a resources (http://www.unesco.org/water/wwap). For program would assess basins at risk and bolster international waters, UNESCO launched its Potential the early-warning process for regions with con- Conflict to Cooperation Potential (PCCP) program, flict potential. The program would also designed specifically to collect, assess, and disseminate enhance institutional capacity between nations the world’s experience in sharing international waters (http://www.unesco.org/water/wwap/pccp/index.shtml). (by reconciling national legal frameworks over It is investigating the possibility of a Water water issues, for example) and craft a “one-stop Cooperation Facility to help stakeholders manage shop” with tools to develop programs that international water disputes. encourage transboundary cooperation. • UNEP’s Division of Early Warning and Through a Global Fund for Water—with spe- Assessment (http://www.unep.org/dewa) provides early warning of environmental change; its mandate is to cial emphasis on understanding the Southern “help increase the capacity of governments to use envi- perspective and integrating conflict prevention ronmental information for decision-making and action units—the UN could improve water manage- planning for sustainable human development.” ment and facilitation skills, reduce duplicate • The World Bank is the lead agency in water efforts, and use water to build confidence and resources development for poverty alleviation in the prevent conflict. developing world; see http://lnweb18.worldbank.org/ ESSD/ardext.nsf/18ByDocName/ WaterResourcesManagement for more information. Notes Through its regional desks and its International Waters Window, it has developed a comprehensive program 1. This background paper builds on a policy brief for the management of international basins, including on water and conflict commissioned by the Office of legal and political frameworks. 65

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• The FAO Development Law Service and various sgsm8139.doc.htm UN Economic Commissions—notably the Economic Conca, Ken & Geoffrey D. Dabelko (Eds.). (2002). Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Environmental peacemaking. Washington, D.C. and (http://www.eclac.cl) and the Economic and Social Baltimore: The Woodrow Wilson Center Press and Commission for Asia and the Pacific Johns Hopkins University Press. (http://www.unescap.org)—have taken the lead in Kramer, Annika. (2004). Water and conflict (Policy building legal capacity for water-related issues, both briefing for USAID). Berlin, Bogor, Washington, within nations and internationally. In addition, the D.C.: Adelphi Research, Center for International International Court of Justice has decided on one case Forestry Research, and Woodrow Wilson regarding international waterways, and the Permanent International Center for Scholars. Court of Arbitration has recently broadened its expert- Ohlsson, Leif. (2000). Livelihood conflicts: Linking ise to include the arbitration of environmental disputes. poverty and environment as causes of conflict. 3. For a summary of PCCP’s actions and recom- Stockholm: Swedish International Development mendations to the Ministerial Conference of the Third Agency, Department of Natural Resources and the World Water Forum in May 2003, see PCCP’s From Environment. Potential Conflict to Co-operation Potential: Water for Turton, Anthony R. (2003). “A Southern African per- Peace brochure at http://www.unesco.org/water/wwap/ spective on transboundary water resources manage- pccp/pdf/brochure_2.pdf ment: Challenging conventional wisdom.” Environmental Change and Security Project Report 9, References 75-87. United Nations. (2003, September 12). Interim report Annan, Kofi. (2001, March 1). “United Nations of the Secretary-General on the prevention of armed Secretary General Kofi Annan addresses the 97th conflict (Report of the Secretary-General on the Annual Meeting of the Association of American work of the Organization, A/58/365–S/2003/888). Geographers” [Transcript of speech]. Association of New York: United Nations. American Geographers. Retrieved November 2, Wolf, Aaron T. (1999, June). Water and human security 2004, from http://www.aag.org/News/kofi.html (AVISO 3). Victoria, Canada: The Global Annan, Kofi. (2002, February 26). World’s water prob- Environmental Change and Human Security lems can be ‘catalyst for cooperation’ says Secretary- Project. General in message on World Water Day [Press Wolf, Aaron T., Shira B. Yoffe, & Marc Giordano. release]. Retrieved November 4, 2004, from (2003). “International waters: Identifying basins at http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2002/ risk.” Water Policy 5, 29-60.

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