State Centric versus Human Centric: How Should Water as a Conflict Variable be Understood? A Research Report submitted to the Faculty of Humanities in partial fulfilment of the requirements for: The Degree of Master of Arts (by Coursework and Research Report) in International Relations By: Ricardo de Sao Joao (0714856G) Supervised By: Mrs Leaza Jernberg Co-Supervised By: Dr. Jacqui Ala February, 2013 Abstract In this thesis, the continuous dialogue between state-centered and human-centered approaches to security studies is discussed in the context of their ability to explain emerging threats within the international system. One emerging threat that has received a particularly large amount of attention is the possibility of water wars in the future. Water Wars are deemed to be conflicts that have water as their primary driving force, both in the onset and continuation. Through the use of the Chad River Basin and the Nile River Basin, this thesis will determine how each approach to security studies explains a particular conflict over water by, considering how each of them explain a “water war” within these Basins. Importantly, through this approach, the thesis aims to determine in what way, if any, the human- centered approach offers a better explanation to water-related conflict than state-centered security. In doing so, the thesis unpacks the various factors relating to the use, distribution and management of shared watercourses. While the findings in this thesis are not exhaustive, it is hoped that it will provide insight into how one ought to understand who is likely to be party to water wars and what is likely to be threatened in these water wars. ii Table of Contents Abstract ii Declaration v Dedication vi Acknowledgements vii List of Abbreviations Used viii List of Figures x Chapter 1 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 Problem Statement 2 1.3 Rationale for this Research 3 1.4 Literature Review 4 1.4.1 Arguments in Favour of the water wars hypothesis 6 1.4.2Arguments against the Water Wars Hypothesis: 10 1.4.3 Water-Related Rather than Water Wars 15 1.5 Methodology 17 1.6 Clarification and Scope of Terms 18 Chapter 2 23 The State-Centric and Human-Centric Approaches to Security 23 2.1 Introduction 23 2.2 The State-Centered Approach to Security 24 2.2.1 Theoretical Background 24 2.2.2 State-Cantered Security in the Context of Water 27 2.3 The Human-Centric Approach to Security 31 2.3.1Theoretical Background 31 2.3.2 Human Security: The Epitome of non-militarized security 33 2.3.3 Human Security in the International System 34 2.3.4Criticisms of Human-Security 35 2.3.5Broad versus Narrow Definitions 36 2.3.6 No Distinction between Human Security and State Security? 39 2.4 Human Security Issues in the Context of Water 41 2.4.1Does Universal Appeal imply Universal Application? 44 2.5 Conclusion 45 Chapter 3 47 Water Wars in West Africa? The Case of Hydropolitical tension in the Chad River Basin 47 3.1Introduction: 47 3.2 Background: Water Resources of the Chad River Basin 48 3.2.1Geographical location and attributes 48 3.2.2 The Lake Chad: A focus on Water Depletion and its impact on Foreign Relations 50 3.2.3 Riparian Countries of the Lake Chad River Basin 53 3.2.4 The use of Water Withdrawals by Riparian Countries 54 ii 3.2.4.1 Industrial use of Water in the Lake Chad River Basin 55 3.2.4.2 Agricultural and Domestic: Water and the sustenance of life in the Chad River Basin 57 3.2.5 Population in the Chad River Basin and Lake Chad Region 60 3.2.6 Water Management in the Chad Basin 65 3.2.7 Conclusion 68 3.3 Conflict over Water Resources in the Chad River Basin: Cameroon v Nigeria 69 3.3.1 Background: Two issues; one dispute 69 3.3.2 From Tension to Conflict on the borders of Cameroon and Nigeria 74 3.3.3 The Militarization of the Border Dispute 75 3.3.4 The End of the Bakassi Peninsula and Lake Chad Dispute 78 3.4 State-Centered versus Human Centered Approaches: The Bakassi and Lake Chad case 80 3.4.1 Analysing the State-Centred Approach 80 3.4.2 Analysing the Human-Centred Approach 85 3.4.2.1The Human-Centred Approach: the case of Nigeria and Cameroon 86 3.4.2.2 Human-Centered Factors and their impact on the territorial occupation in the Lake Chad Region 88 3.4.3 Current Day Affairs in the Bakassi and Lake Chad 91 3.5 Conclusion 94 Chapter 4 95 Conflict over Water in the Nile Basin: The Case of the Suez Canal Crisis of 1956 95 4.1 Introduction 95 4.2 Background 97 4.2.1 Distribution of the Nile River Basin Water Courses amongst riparian countries 99 (Source: Karyabwite, 2000) 99 4.2.2.1: Watercourses of the Nile Basin: An Overview 100 4.2.2 Uses of the Nile Basin amongst riparian countries 106 4.2.5.1 Agricultural and Domestic Use 107 4.2.5.2Industrial Uses 110 4.2.6 Population and Socioeconomic Data 113 Water Poverty Nexus Explained? 116 (Source: State of the Nile Basin, 2012) 119 4.2.2 Inter-Basin Water Management in the Nile Basin 120 4.2.7 Conclusion to Background 125 4.3 Conflict over Water in the Nile Basin: The Suez Crisis of 1956 126 4.3.1Mediation Efforts 128 4.3.2 From Mediation to Conflict 129 4.3.4Abbreviated Chronology of Events 132 4.4 Analysis of the Suez Crisis as a form a Water Wars 133 4.4.1The State-Centred Approach: 133 4.4.2The Human Security Approach 136 4.2.1 If not the Suez the Suez Crisis, can Egypt’s emphasis on water be explained through human centered security? 138 4.5 Current State of Affairs in the Nile Basin 141 4.6 Conclusion 143 Chapter 5 144 Conclusion 144 iii 5.1 Introduction 144 5.2 Similarities and Differences between the Chad Basin and the Nile Basin 144 5.3 Findings 146 5.3.1 What is Water’s Causal Role? 146 5.3.2 Post-Colonial Africa and Water 148 5.4 Limitations of this research 149 5.5 Suggestions for future research 151 5.4 General Conclusion 152 Bibliography (by Chapter) 153 Chapter 1 153 Chapter 2 157 Chapter 3 160 Chapter 4 164 Chapter 5 168 iv Declaration I, Ricardo de Sao Joao, declare that this work is my own unaided, original work unless, where I have explicitly indicated otherwise. I have followed the referencing conventions of the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg. In addition, I declare that this work has not been submitted to any other University for Degree Purposes. Signed on…………of…………………………….., 2013 ……………………………………………. Ricardo de Sao Joao Johannesburg v Dedication For My Mommy in Heaven, Rest in Peace And All those who lost their brave battle with Cancer vi Acknowledgements Firstly I need to extend my most sincere gratitude to my Supervisors, Mrs. Leaza Jernberg and Dr. Jacqui Ala for their endless patience, advice and guidance in this project. Without your inspiration and dedication this project would not have been possible. To my dearest friends (and partners-in-crime) Esther Caddy, Chantelle Holthuis, and Katherine Xiong, you have truly made the experience of writing this work (and many others) bearable through constant laughs and support, during our many PiG lunches and Guitar Hero battles. To my Colleagues in the Student Development and Leadership Unit (S.D.L.U.), in the Division of Student Affairs, thank you for support in this project, especially given the short time you have been acquainted with me. I need to especially thank my Head of Department, Mrs. Lamese Abrahams for your sincere support in allowing me the opportunity, at various times, to dedicate my time towards the completion of this project. To my Father and Friend, Mario de Sao Joao words cannot begin to describe the gratitude I have for your support and dedication during the time taken to complete this project. Your willingness to accompany me through the (long and deep) trenches of academia is truly appreciated. Without you this work would, quite literally, not have been possible. To my family who take care of me, most especially my Grandmother and my Aunt thank you for the endless dinners you have prepared for me while I focused my attention on writing. Also to Christo van der Merwe for your encouragement in the completion of this work. vii List of Abbreviations Used CAR Central African Republic CSS Critical Security Studies ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States EU European Union ECSC European Coal and Steel Community FAO Food and Agricultural Organisation FDI Foreign Direct Investment GDP Gross Domestic Product GEF Global Environment Facility GWP Global Water Project HDI Human Development Index ICJ International Court of Justice IPCC International Panel for Climate Change IPE International Political Economy IRCC International Red Cross Committee ISS International Security Studies LCBC Lake Chad Basin Commission LHWP Lesotho Highlands Water Project NBI Nile Basin Initiative MENA Middle East and North Africa TRWR Total Renewable Water Resources UN United Nations UNESCO United Nations Educational, Social and Cultural Organisation UNEP United Nations Environmental Program viii UNSC United Nations Security Council UNSG United Nations Secretary General USSR Union of Socialist Soviet Republics WB World Bank ix List of Figures Figure 1: Water-Stress Indicator versus needed to sustain population growth……………………….21 Figure 2: The Project of Critical Security Studies…………………………………………………….32 Figure 3: Chad River Basin…………………………………………………………………………...47 Figure 4: Surface Area of Basin Amongst LCBC…………………………………………………….48 Figure 5: The Vanishing Lake Chad…………………………………………………………………..51 Figure 6: Water Withdrawals By Sector in the Chad Basin-LCBC Countries………………………..53 Figure 7: GDP and GDP per capita in LCBC…………………………………………………………54 Figure 8: Population and Population Projection for