Mariners Weather Log Vol

Mariners Weather Log Vol. 43, No. 2 August 1999 Sea Surface Temperature image of the North Atlantic Ocean showing the Gulf Stream System (intense currents on the western side of the North Atlantic Ocean). For centuries, the only information on ocean surface currents came from mariners. With the introduction of satellites, a view of ocean currents can be seen on a daily basis. Mariners Weather Log Mariners Weather Log From the Editorial Supervisor As the 20th century ends and we enter the new millennium, now, as never before, the topics of weather and climate are at the forefront of specula- tion and study. In the past, predictions about humanity’s future did not take account of changing climate, disappearing forests, spreading deserts, U.S. Department of Commerce rising sea levels, and the like. Now, as we are all William M. Daley, Secretary aware, changes like these are likely to affect our National Oceanic and future profoundly. In light of this, the cover of this Atmospheric Administration issue was chosen to recognize the impact that ocean Dr. D. James Baker, Administrator currents such as the Gulf Stream have on weather National Weather Service and climate. John J. Kelly, Jr., Assistant Administrator for Weather Services The Gulf Stream impacts weather both in the United States and Europe. Along the United States east National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service coast, a class of storms, referred to as “Nor’Easters” Robert S. Winokur, can form in winter near or over the Gulf Stream as Assistant Administrator cold air from the North American continent meets the Gulf Stream warm air. Development of these storms Editorial Supervisor can sometimes be explosive, with central pressures Martin S. Baron dropping 18 mb (0.5 inches) or more in less than 24 Editor hours (called “bombs” in our North Atlantic Marine Mary Ann Burke Weather Reviews). Further east, the Gulf Stream has a major moderating impact on the weather of Iceland, Western Europe, the Azores, and the Canary Islands. The Secretary of Commerce has determined that the publication of this It is widely believed that ocean currents, along with periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business required by law phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña are key to of this department. Use of funds for printing this periodical has been approved by the director of the Office of Management and Budget through December understanding and predicting weather and climate 1999. change. They will be at the forefront of climate The Mariners Weather Log (ISSN: 0025-3367) is published by the National research throughout the 21st century. We will con- Weather Service, Office of Meteorology, Integrated Hydrometeorological Services Core, Silver Spring, Maryland, (301) 713-1677, Ext. 134. Funding is tinue to run articles on these subjects as they become provided by the National Weather Service, National Environmental Satellite, available. Data, and Information Service, and the United States Navy. Data is provided by the National Climatic Data Center. h Articles, photographs, and letters should be sent to: Some Important Webpage Addresses Mr. Martin S. Baron, Editorial Supervisor Mariners Weather Log NOAA http://www.noaa.gov National Weather Service, NOAA National Weather Service http://www.nws.noaa.gov VOS Program http://www.vos.noaa.gov 1325 East-West Highway, Room 14108 SEAS Program http://seas.nos.noaa.gov/seas/ Silver Spring, MD 20910 Mariners Weather Log http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/ mwl/mwl.htm Phone: (301) 713-1677 Ext. 134 Marine Dissemination http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/ Fax: (301) 713-1598 marine/home.htm E-mail: [email protected] See these webpages for further links. 2 Mariners Weather Log Mariners Weather Log Table of Contents Hurricane Avoidance Using the “34-Knot Wind Radius” and “1-2-3” Rules ................................ 4 Obtaining National Weather Service Hurricane Advisories Using E-Mail .................................... 7 Great Lakes Wrecks—The Roy A. Jodrey.................................................................................... 10 Departments: Physical Oceanography ..................................................................................................................................... 11 AMVER............................................................................................................................................................. 18 National Data Buoy Center................................................................................................................................ 20 Marine Biology .................................................................................................................................................. 22 Marine Weather Review North Atlantic, December 1998–March 1999 ..................................................................................... 26 North Pacific, December 1998–March 1999 ....................................................................................... 36 Tropical Atlantic and Tropical East Pacific, January–April 1999 ....................................................... 44 Climate Prediction Center, January–April 1999 ..................................................................................51 Fam Float ........................................................................................................................................................... 53 Coastal Forecast Office News ............................................................................................................................ 54 VOS Program .................................................................................................................................................... 56 VOS Cooperative Ship Reports ......................................................................................................................... 74 Buoy Climatological Data Summary ................................................................................................................. 86 Meteorological Services Observations ......................................................................................................................................... 90 Forecasts ............................................................................................................................................... 93 August 1999 3 Hurricane Avoidance Hurricane Avoidance Using the 34-Knot Wind Radius and 1-2-3 Rules Michael Carr George Burkley Maritime Institute of Technology and Graduate Studies Linthicum Heights, Maryland Lee Chesneau Marine Prediction Center The Maritime Institute of Technol- the center of one of these hurri- keep the earth’s atmosphere in ogy and Graduate Studies canes can cause the ocean’s balance. (MITAGS) offers both two- and surface to rise and produce a five-day Coast Guard approved coastal surge that can be 20 feet or Because a hurricane expedites weather courses which meet more above the normal high water removal of heat from equatorial International Maritime Organiza- mark. While it is hard to grasp the regions to cooler polar areas it is tion Standards of Training and power of a typical hurricane, if the similar to a circuit breaker in an Conduct for Watchkeepers energy from one were converted to electrical system or a relief valve (STCW) requirements. electricity, it could supply the on a radiator. It quickly transfers United States power demand for heat from hot equatorial regions to t is no secret that a hurricane six months. cool polar areas. Hurricanes are so (or typhoon) is a very power good at removing heat that water Iful and dangerous weather Although the subject of how temperatures behind a hurricane system. A fully developed cat- hurricanes form is complex there are often reduced several degrees. egory 5 hurricane (on the Saffir- are some general constants. All Simpson Hurricane Scale), the hurricanes originate near the Avoidance is an essential ship highest classification a hurricane equator and sustain themselves by routing tactic in dealing with can attain, will have winds in capturing and condensing the hurricanes and, though recognized excess of 135 knots and will warm moist air that is present at limits do exist in both hurricane control over one million cubic these latitudes. A hurricane begins track and intensity forecasting, miles of atmosphere. to form when there is a buildup of there are two reliable rules that equatorial heat and this heat is should be used by mariners. These Hurricanes can also create waves unable to move away to the earth’s are the “34-knot wind radius” and over 50 feet high in the open polar regions quickly enough to the “1-2-3” rules. ocean. Further, the low pressure at Continued on Page 5 4 Mariners Weather Log Hurricane Avoidance Hurricane Avoidance Using this information, a chart can Averaging errors in track deviation Continued from Page 4 be constructed showing the area to from predicted path for the period be avoided, and this area should 1988-1997 substantiates this rule Thirty-Four-Knot Wind be compared with National of thumb: Radius Rule Weather Service, Marine prediction Center sea-state and wind- Forecast Avg. Error (nm) Avg. Error (nm) The 34-knot wind radius rule wave analysis and forecasts. Interval (left & right (left & right states that ships should stay (Hours) of track) of track) Subsequent forecasts should be Atlantic Ocean Pacific Ocean outside the area of a hurricane used to validate and update where winds of 34 knots or greater

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