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Hurricane and Tropical Storm
State of New Jersey 2014 Hazard Mitigation Plan Section 5. Risk Assessment 5.8 Hurricane and Tropical Storm 2014 Plan Update Changes The 2014 Plan Update includes tropical storms, hurricanes and storm surge in this hazard profile. In the 2011 HMP, storm surge was included in the flood hazard. The hazard profile has been significantly enhanced to include a detailed hazard description, location, extent, previous occurrences, probability of future occurrence, severity, warning time and secondary impacts. New and updated data and figures from ONJSC are incorporated. New and updated figures from other federal and state agencies are incorporated. Potential change in climate and its impacts on the flood hazard are discussed. The vulnerability assessment now directly follows the hazard profile. An exposure analysis of the population, general building stock, State-owned and leased buildings, critical facilities and infrastructure was conducted using best available SLOSH and storm surge data. Environmental impacts is a new subsection. 5.8.1 Profile Hazard Description A tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or sub-tropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation. Tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes are all considered tropical cyclones. These storms rotate counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere around the center and are accompanied by heavy rain and strong winds (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA] 2013a). Almost all tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) form between June 1 and November 30 (hurricane season). August and September are peak months for hurricane development. -
AMMA-Weather
Multi-scale Observations and Modeling of West African Tropical Rainfall Systems: AMMA-Weather Principal Investigators: Chris D. Thorncroft SUNY at Albany Chris Davis NCAR Robert A. Houze University of Washington Richard H. Johnson Colorado State University Steven A. Rutledge Colorado State University Bradley F. Smull University of Washington PROJECT OVERVIEW Executive Summary AMMA-Weather is designed to improve both fundamental understanding and weather prediction in the area of the West African monsoon through deployment of U.S. surface and upper-air observing systems in July and August 2006. These systems will be closely coordinated with International AMMA. The project will focus on the interactions between African easterly waves (AEWs) and embedded Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) including the key role played by microphysics and how this is impacted by aerosol. The pronounced zonal symmetry, ubiquitous synoptic and mesoscale systems combined with the close proximity of the Saharan aerosol make the WAM an ideal natural laboratory in which to carry out these investigations. The observations will provide an important testbed for improving models used for weather and climate prediction in West Africa and the downstream breeding ground for hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic. The international AMMA program consists of scientists from more than 20 countries in Africa, Europe, and the US. Owing to the efforts of European countries, a strong infrastructure is being installed providing a unique opportunity for US participation. Support in excess of twenty million Euros has already been secured by Europeans for AMMA including the 2006 field campaign. Significantly for AMMA-Weather, this will include support for the U.S. -
Mariner's Guide for Hurricane Awareness
Mariner’s Guide For Hurricane Awareness In The North Atlantic Basin Eric J. Holweg [email protected] Meteorologist Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch Tropical Prediction Center National Weather Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration August 2000 Internet Sites with Weather and Communications Information Of Interest To The Mariner NOAA home page: http://www.noaa.gov NWS home page: http://www.nws.noaa.gov NWS marine dissemination page: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/marine/home.htm NWS marine text products: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/marine/forecast.htm NWS radio facsmile/marine charts: http://weather.noaa.gov/fax/marine.shtml NWS publications: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/nwspub.htm NOAA Data Buoy Center: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov NOAA Weather Radio: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/nwr National Ocean Service (NOS): http://co-ops.nos.noaa.gov/ NOS Tide data: http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/ USCG Navigation Center: http://www.navcen.uscg.mil Tropical Prediction Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ High Seas Forecasts and Charts: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/forecast.html Marine Prediction Center: http://www.mpc.ncep.noaa.gov SST & Gulfstream: http://www4.nlmoc.navy.mil/data/oceans/gulfstream.html Hurricane Preparedness & Tracks: http://www.fema.gov/fema/trop.htm Time Zone Conversions: http://tycho.usno.navy.mil/zones.html Table of Contents Introduction and Purpose ................................................................................................................... 1 Disclaimer ........................................................................................................................................... -
Recent Advances and Future Challenges in Hurricane Prediction
Recent Advances and Future Challenges in Hurricane Prediction Yuh-Lang Lin Professor Departments of Physics Department of Energy & Environ. Systems Senior Scientist NCAT ISET Center Outlines 1. The Need for Skillful Hurricane Prediction 2. Origins of Tropical Cyclones 3. Numerical Weather Prediction 4. Hurricane Track Prediction 5. Hurricane Intensity and Rainfall Predictions 6. Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts 7. Effects of Global Warming on Hurricanes 8. Summary 2 1. The Need for Skillful Tropical Cyclone Prediction More people live along coastal areas – it takes longer time to evacuate. Emergency managements are very costly: (e.g., it costs ~$1M per mile of coastline evacuation). Evacuation decision making is very sensitive to the prediction of hurricane track, intensity and size. More hurricane related fatalities now due to storm surge or inland flooding which depends on accurate TC prediction. More and stronger hurricanes are coming due to global warming?! 3 2. Origin of Tropical Cyclones Tropical cyclones form over tropical oceans with sufficient sea-surface temperature (> 26.5oC), circulation (vorticity), moisture and instability, and weak vertical wind shear. Definitions of tropical cyclones: Tropical Tropical Storm Hurricane/ Depression Typhoon 17 m/s 33 m/s (38 mph) (75 mph) Hurricane Patricia (2015) Major Hurricane [89 m/s (200 mph), 879 mb] 50 m/s (112 mph) Super Typhoon Typhoon Haiyan (2013) 67 m/s [87 m/s (195 mph), 895 mb] (150 mph) 4 About 85% of major hurricanes were initiated by African easterly waves (AEWs) [e.g., pre-Hurricane Alberto (2000) AEW] 5 (From Lin et al. 2005), based on EUMETSAT Some Basic Dynamics of Hurricane Genesis are still not well understood: Why are there so many easterly waves and so few tropical storms? What processes ”choose” a particular Easterly Wave? What are the major formation mechanisms of hurricanes? . -
Mariners Weather Log Vol
Mariners Weather Log Vol. 43, No. 3 December 1999 Double eyewall structure of hurricane Gilbert on September 14, 1988, near Cozumel Island, Yucatan. The devastating peak wind and rainfall occurs in the hurricane eyewalls. The moat is an area of lesser wind and rainfall between the two eyewalls. Superimposed on the radar picture is the aircrafts track and wind at about 2600 meters (8500 feet) (wind barbs and flags in knots). See article on page 4. Mariners Weather Log Mariners Weather Log From the Editorial Supervisor This issue features a fascinating interview with Dr. Hugh Willoughby, head of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratories, on concentric (double) hurricane eyewalls. Hurricane eyewalls are the nearly circular ring of thunder- storm-like cloud towers surrounding the often clear, nearly U.S. Department of Commerce calm center or eye of the storm. The eyewalls contain the William M. Daley, Secretary devastating peak wind and rainfall of the hurricane and can extend up to 10 miles high in the atmosphere. While most National Oceanic and hurricanes have a single eyewall, many major category 3 or Atmospheric Administration stronger hurricanes (50 % or more) develop the double eye Dr. D. James Baker, Administrator wall structure.The double structure usually lasts a day or two, with the inner wall eventually dissipating as the outer National Weather Service wall contracts in to become the new single eyewall (going John J. Kelly, Jr., Assistant Administrator for Weather Services through an entire eyewall replacement). See the article for details. National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service This issue also contains the AMVER rescue report for Robert S. -
To Marine Meteorological Services
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION Guide to Marine Meteorological Services Third edition PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS PUBLICATION IS GOING TO BE UPDATED BY END OF 2010. WMO-No. 471 Secretariat of the World Meteorological Organization - Geneva - Switzerland 2001 © 2001, World Meteorological Organization ISBN 92-63-13471-5 NOTE The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the World Meteorological Organization concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. TABLE FOR NOTING SUPPLEMENTS RECEIVED Supplement Dated Inserted in the publication No. by date 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 CONTENTS Page FOREWORD................................................................................................................................................. ix INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................................................... xi CHAPTER 1 — MARINE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES ........................................................... 1-1 1.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 1-1 1.2 Requirements for marine meteorological information....................................................................... 1-1 1.2.1 -
Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves Over the Tropical Atlantic and African Regions and Their
Convectively-coupled Kelvin waves over the tropical Atlantic and African regions and their influence on Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis by MICHAEL J. VENTRICE A Dissertation Submitted to the University at Albany, State University of New York in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy College of Arts & Sciences Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences 2012 Convectively-coupled Kelvin waves over the tropical Atlantic and African regions and their influence on Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis by Michael J. Ventrice COPYRIGHT 2012 Abstract High-amplitude convectively coupled atmospheric Kelvin waves (CCKWs) are explored over the tropical Atlantic during the boreal summer. Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis is found to be more frequent during the passage of the convectively active phase of the CCKW, and most frequent two days after its passage. CCKWs impact convection within the mean latitude of the inter-tropical convergence zone over the northern tropical Atlantic. In addition to convection, CCKWs also impact the large scale environment that favors Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis (i.e., deep vertical wind shear, moisture, and low-level relative vorticity). African easterly waves (AEWs) are known to be the main precursors for Atlantic tropical cyclones. Therefore, the relationship between CCKWs and AEW activity during boreal summer is explored. AEW activity is found to increase over the Guinea Highlands and Darfur Mountains during and after the passage of the convectively active phase of the CCKW. First, CCKWs increase the number of convective triggers for AEW genesis. Secondly, the associated zonal wind structure of the CCKW is found to affect the horizontal shear on the equatorward side of the African easterly jet (AEJ), such that the jet becomes more unstable during and after the passage of the convectively active phase of the CCKW. -
Big Early Voting Turnout
SPORTS POW WOW FRIDAY FOOTBALL WACCAMAW SIOUAN MATCHES YIELD WINS FOR POW WOW WAS SCHS, ECHS SATURDAY uu SPORTS 3B uu POW WOW 10A The News Reporter Published since 1890 every Monday and Thursday for the County of Columbus and her people. WWW.NRCOLUMBUS.COM Monday, November 7, 2016 75 CENTS Big early voting turnout By Allen Turner [email protected] Early voting ended Saturday af- ter two weeks of heavy turnout as other voters prepared to go to the polls on the official Election Day Tuesday. Polls will open at 6:30 a.m. on Tuesday at all 26 Columbus County voting precincts and remain open until 7:30 p.m. One voting location, the Fair Bluff precinct, has been moved from its usual location of Fair Bluff Fire and Rescue to Johnny’s Sandwich Shop at 899 Main St., due to damage from Hurricane Matthew at the fire department. Complete numbers are not available on how many Columbus Countians cast early ballots be- uu VOTING 6A Photo by Grant Merritt Festival Queen Rachel McPherson and her six Belles on their float were escorted by cadets from Camden Military Academy. Bridge NCFS fills gaps during response, recovery could be By Jefferson Weaver lands, Malcolm said the agency’s mis- [email protected] sion includes emergency response. complete “It was a natural outgrowth of fire- Among the red, blue, yellow and fighting,” he explained. “It really isn’t white vehicles helping Columbus that unusual for Forest Service crews County residents during Hurricane to be deployed in a natural disaster.” in spring Matthew, there were a lot of green Malcolm said NCFS crews have trucks as well. -
ANNUAL SUMMARIES Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season of 2000
3004 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 129 ANNUAL SUMMARIES Eastern North Paci®c Hurricane Season of 2000 MILES B. LAWRENCE,LIXION A. AVILA,JACK L. BEVEN,JAMES L. FRANKLIN,RICHARD J. PASCH, AND STACY R. STEWART National Hurricane Center, Tropical Prediction Center, NCEP, NOAA/NWS, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 16 May 2001, in ®nal form 29 June 2001) ABSTRACT There were 11 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 tropical depressions during the 2000 eastern North Paci®c hurricane season. Two tropical storms made landfall in Mexico. 1. Introduction teorological analyses. After each cyclone has ended, a There were 11 tropical storms and 6 hurricanes in the ``best track'' is determined using all available data. The eastern Paci®c basin in the year 2000, totaling 17 named best track is a table of 6-hourly estimates of the cy- tropical cyclones. This is two more than the 1966±99 clone's center position, maximum 1-min wind speed (10 m above the surface), and minimum sea level pressure.2 average of 15 named tropical cyclones.1 In contrast, the total of six hurricanes is three less than the long-term With the exception of a few aerial reconnaissance average of nine. There were also two tropical depres- ¯ights, all of this season's best track data were derived sions that did not reach tropical storm strength. The from satellite data and occasional land and ship reports. named tropical cyclones are listed in Table 1, along with The method for estimating the maximum 1-min wind their dates, maximum 1-min surface wind speed, min- speed from satellite imagery is the Dvorak technique imum sea level pressure, and directly attributable deaths. -
Colorado State Universtiy Hurricane Forecast Team Figure 1: Colorado State Universtiy Hurricane Forecast Team
SUMMARY OF 2000 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY AND VERIFICATION OF AUTHORS' SEASONAL ACTIVITY FORECAST A Successful Forecast of an Active Hurricane Season - But (Fortunately) Below Average Cyclone Landfall and Destruction (as of 21 November 2000) By William M. Gray,* Christopher W. Landsea**, Paul W. Mielke, Jr., Kenneth J. Berry***, and Eric Blake**** [with advice and assistance from Todd Kimberlain and William Thorson*****] * Professor of Atmospheric Science ** Meteorologist with NOAA?AOML HRD Lab., Miami, Fl. *** Professor of Statistics **** Graduate Student ***** Dept. of Atmospheric Science [David Weymiller and Thomas Milligan, Colorado State University Media Representatives (970-491- 6432) are available to answer questions about this forecast.] Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Fort Collins, CO 80523 Phone Number: 970-491-8681 Colorado State Universtiy Hurricane Forecast Team Figure 1: Colorado State Universtiy Hurricane Forecast Team Front Row - left to right: John Knaff, Ken Berry, Paul Mielke, John Scheaffer, Rick Taft. Back Row - left to right: Bill Thorson, Bill Gray, and Chris Landsea. SUMMARY OF 2000 SEASONAL FORECASTS AND VERIFICATION Sequence of Forecast Updates Tropical Cyclone Seasonal 8 Dec 99 7 Apr 00 7 Jun 00 4 Aug 00 Observed Parameters (1950-90 Ave.) Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast 2000 Totals* Named Storms (NS) (9.3) 11 11 12 11 14 Named Storm Days (NSD) (46.9) 55 55 65 55 66 Hurricanes (H)(5.8) 7 7 8 7 8 Hurricane Days (HD)(23.7) 25 25 35 30 32 Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.2) 3 3 4 3 3 Intense Hurricane Days (IHD)(4.7) 6 6 8 6 5.25 Hurricane Destruction Potential (HDP) (70.6) 85 85 100 90 85 Maximum Potential Destruction (MPD) (61.7) 70 70 75 70 78 Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC)(100%) 125 125 160 130 134 *A few of the numbers may change slightly in the National Hurricane Center's final tabulation VERIFICATION OF 2000 MAJOR HURRICANE LANDFALL Forecast Probability and Climatology for last Observed 100 years (in parentheses) 1. -
Before the Federal Communications Commission Washington D.C. 20554 in the Matter of ) ) 2002 Biennial Regulatory Review
Before the Federal Communications Commission Washington D.C. 20554 In the matter of ) ) 2002 Biennial Regulatory Review − Review of ) MB Docket No. 02-277 the Commission’s Broadcast Ownership Rules and ) Other Rules Adopted Pursuant to Section 202 of ) the Telecommunications Act of 1996 ) ) Cross-Ownership of Broadcast Stations and ) MM Docket No. 01-235 Newspapers ) ) Rules and Policies Concerning Multiple Ownership ) MM Docket No. 01-317 of Radio Broadcast Stations in Local Markets ) ) Definition of Radio Markets ) MM Docket No. 00-244 COMMENTS OF THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BROADCASTERS AND THE NETWORK AFFILIATED STATIONS ALLIANCE ATTACHMENTS Henry L. Baumann Jonathan D. Blake Jack N. Goodman Robert A. Long, Jr. Jerianne Timmerman Jennifer A. Johnson NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF Raymond A. Atkins BROADCASTERS Heidi C. Doerhoff 1771 N Street, NW COVINGTON & BURLING Washington, DC 20036 1201 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW 202-429-5430 (Phone) Washington, DC 20004-2401 202-775-3526 (Fax) 202-662-6000 (Phone) 202-662-6291 (Fax) Wade H. Hargrove Mark J. Prak Brooks, Pierce, McLendon, Humphrey & Leonard, L.L.P. P. O. Box 1800 Raleigh, NC 27602 919-839-0300 (Phone) 919-839-0304 (Fax) Counsel for Network Affiliated Stations Alliance January 2, 2003 LIST OF ATTACHMENTS Attachment 1 Marius Schwartz & Daniel R. Vincent, The Television National Ownership Cap and Localism (2003) Attachment 2 NAB/NASA Joint Survey of Broadcast Stations Affiliated with ABC, CBS, and NBC Attachment 3 NAB/NASA Request for Collection of Data By FCC and FCC Order Denying Request -
Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Evasion by United States Navy Ships Via Optimum Track Ship Routing (Otsr)
10A.4 ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL CYCLONE EVASION BY UNITED STATES NAVY SHIPS VIA OPTIMUM TRACK SHIP ROUTING (OTSR) Atlantic Basin tropical cyclones pose significant challenges to the operational readiness and safety of United States ships and afloat personnel. During tropical events, the Naval Atlantic Meteorology and Oceanography Center applies a broad range of meteorology products and skills, in consultation with the National Hurricane Center, to recommend appropriate evasive actions for assets afloat. Even though a tropical cyclone may be hundreds of miles from land, or perhaps, not threatening coastal interests at all, platforms afloat (including ships of the U.S. Navy, NOAA, Coast Guard, Army, in addition to Allied Navies) may well be threatened. Due to relatively slow speeds and vulnerability in heavy winds and seas, tropical cyclone warnings and evasion recommendations must be developed, coordinated, and promulgated well ahead of the onset of destructive weather. During Hurricane Alberto, two groups of U.S. Navy ships were transiting the Atlantic; one group returning home after deployment, and the second group proceeding eastward to meet scheduled commitments. Forecasting potential hurricane impact on the two groups required the entire suite of forecast tools and models reaching out to at least 144 hours. This because the expected recurvature of the hurricane had the potential to impact ship tracks over the course of the next 6 – 7 days. Through nearly continuous communications with the afloat staffs, together with consideration of all available and pertinent meteorological data, beneficial evasion actions were accomplished. The eastbound group increased speed along their track and outran the Alberto threat while the westbound group initiated various track/speed diverts to successfully evade.