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Colorado State Universtiy Hurricane Forecast Team Figure 1: Colorado State Universtiy Hurricane Forecast Team
SUMMARY OF 2000 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY AND VERIFICATION OF AUTHORS' SEASONAL ACTIVITY FORECAST A Successful Forecast of an Active Hurricane Season - But (Fortunately) Below Average Cyclone Landfall and Destruction (as of 21 November 2000) By William M. Gray,* Christopher W. Landsea**, Paul W. Mielke, Jr., Kenneth J. Berry***, and Eric Blake**** [with advice and assistance from Todd Kimberlain and William Thorson*****] * Professor of Atmospheric Science ** Meteorologist with NOAA?AOML HRD Lab., Miami, Fl. *** Professor of Statistics **** Graduate Student ***** Dept. of Atmospheric Science [David Weymiller and Thomas Milligan, Colorado State University Media Representatives (970-491- 6432) are available to answer questions about this forecast.] Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Fort Collins, CO 80523 Phone Number: 970-491-8681 Colorado State Universtiy Hurricane Forecast Team Figure 1: Colorado State Universtiy Hurricane Forecast Team Front Row - left to right: John Knaff, Ken Berry, Paul Mielke, John Scheaffer, Rick Taft. Back Row - left to right: Bill Thorson, Bill Gray, and Chris Landsea. SUMMARY OF 2000 SEASONAL FORECASTS AND VERIFICATION Sequence of Forecast Updates Tropical Cyclone Seasonal 8 Dec 99 7 Apr 00 7 Jun 00 4 Aug 00 Observed Parameters (1950-90 Ave.) Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast 2000 Totals* Named Storms (NS) (9.3) 11 11 12 11 14 Named Storm Days (NSD) (46.9) 55 55 65 55 66 Hurricanes (H)(5.8) 7 7 8 7 8 Hurricane Days (HD)(23.7) 25 25 35 30 32 Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.2) 3 3 4 3 3 Intense Hurricane Days (IHD)(4.7) 6 6 8 6 5.25 Hurricane Destruction Potential (HDP) (70.6) 85 85 100 90 85 Maximum Potential Destruction (MPD) (61.7) 70 70 75 70 78 Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC)(100%) 125 125 160 130 134 *A few of the numbers may change slightly in the National Hurricane Center's final tabulation VERIFICATION OF 2000 MAJOR HURRICANE LANDFALL Forecast Probability and Climatology for last Observed 100 years (in parentheses) 1. -
Before the Federal Communications Commission Washington D.C. 20554 in the Matter of ) ) 2002 Biennial Regulatory Review
Before the Federal Communications Commission Washington D.C. 20554 In the matter of ) ) 2002 Biennial Regulatory Review − Review of ) MB Docket No. 02-277 the Commission’s Broadcast Ownership Rules and ) Other Rules Adopted Pursuant to Section 202 of ) the Telecommunications Act of 1996 ) ) Cross-Ownership of Broadcast Stations and ) MM Docket No. 01-235 Newspapers ) ) Rules and Policies Concerning Multiple Ownership ) MM Docket No. 01-317 of Radio Broadcast Stations in Local Markets ) ) Definition of Radio Markets ) MM Docket No. 00-244 COMMENTS OF THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BROADCASTERS AND THE NETWORK AFFILIATED STATIONS ALLIANCE ATTACHMENTS Henry L. Baumann Jonathan D. Blake Jack N. Goodman Robert A. Long, Jr. Jerianne Timmerman Jennifer A. Johnson NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF Raymond A. Atkins BROADCASTERS Heidi C. Doerhoff 1771 N Street, NW COVINGTON & BURLING Washington, DC 20036 1201 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW 202-429-5430 (Phone) Washington, DC 20004-2401 202-775-3526 (Fax) 202-662-6000 (Phone) 202-662-6291 (Fax) Wade H. Hargrove Mark J. Prak Brooks, Pierce, McLendon, Humphrey & Leonard, L.L.P. P. O. Box 1800 Raleigh, NC 27602 919-839-0300 (Phone) 919-839-0304 (Fax) Counsel for Network Affiliated Stations Alliance January 2, 2003 LIST OF ATTACHMENTS Attachment 1 Marius Schwartz & Daniel R. Vincent, The Television National Ownership Cap and Localism (2003) Attachment 2 NAB/NASA Joint Survey of Broadcast Stations Affiliated with ABC, CBS, and NBC Attachment 3 NAB/NASA Request for Collection of Data By FCC and FCC Order Denying Request -
Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Evasion by United States Navy Ships Via Optimum Track Ship Routing (Otsr)
10A.4 ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL CYCLONE EVASION BY UNITED STATES NAVY SHIPS VIA OPTIMUM TRACK SHIP ROUTING (OTSR) Atlantic Basin tropical cyclones pose significant challenges to the operational readiness and safety of United States ships and afloat personnel. During tropical events, the Naval Atlantic Meteorology and Oceanography Center applies a broad range of meteorology products and skills, in consultation with the National Hurricane Center, to recommend appropriate evasive actions for assets afloat. Even though a tropical cyclone may be hundreds of miles from land, or perhaps, not threatening coastal interests at all, platforms afloat (including ships of the U.S. Navy, NOAA, Coast Guard, Army, in addition to Allied Navies) may well be threatened. Due to relatively slow speeds and vulnerability in heavy winds and seas, tropical cyclone warnings and evasion recommendations must be developed, coordinated, and promulgated well ahead of the onset of destructive weather. During Hurricane Alberto, two groups of U.S. Navy ships were transiting the Atlantic; one group returning home after deployment, and the second group proceeding eastward to meet scheduled commitments. Forecasting potential hurricane impact on the two groups required the entire suite of forecast tools and models reaching out to at least 144 hours. This because the expected recurvature of the hurricane had the potential to impact ship tracks over the course of the next 6 – 7 days. Through nearly continuous communications with the afloat staffs, together with consideration of all available and pertinent meteorological data, beneficial evasion actions were accomplished. The eastbound group increased speed along their track and outran the Alberto threat while the westbound group initiated various track/speed diverts to successfully evade. -
Atlantic Major Hurricanes, 1995–2005—Characteristics Based on Best-Track, Aircraft, and IR Images
VOLUME 20 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 15DECEMBER 2007 Atlantic Major Hurricanes, 1995–2005—Characteristics Based on Best-Track, Aircraft, and IR Images RAYMOND M. ZEHR AND JOHN A. KNAFF NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, Colorado (Manuscript received 28 August 2006, in final form 1 May 2007) ABSTRACT The Atlantic major hurricanes during the period of 1995–2005 are examined using best-track data, aircraft-based observations of central pressure, and infrared (IR) satellite images. There were 45 Atlantic major hurricanes (Saffir–Simpson category 3 or higher) during this 11-yr period, which is well above the long-term average. Descriptive statistics (e.g., average, variability, and range) of various characteristics are presented, including intensity, intensification rate, major hurricane duration, location, storm motion, size, and landfall observations. IR images are shown along with IR-derived quantities such as the digital Dvorak technique intensity and IR-defined cold cloud areas. In addition to the satellite intensity estimates, the associated component IR temperatures are documented. A pressure–wind relationship is evaluated, and the deviations of maximum intensity measurements from the pressure–wind relationship are discussed. The Atlantic major hurricane activity of the 1995–2005 period distinctly exceeds the long-term average; however, the average location where major hurricanes reach maximum intensity has not changed. The maximum intensity for each 1995–2005 Atlantic major hurricane is given both as the highest maximum surface wind (Vmax) and the lowest minimum sea level pressure (MSLP). Comparisons are made to other Atlantic major hurricanes with low MSLP back to 1950. Maximum 24-h intensification rates average 21.1 m sϪ1 dayϪ1 and range up to 48.8 m sϪ1 dayϪ1 in terms of Vmax. -
¡Cuba! River Water Chemistry… ¡Cuba! River Water Chemistry Reveals Rapid Chemical Weathering, the Echo of Uplift, and the Promise of More Sustainable Agriculture
VOL. 30, NO. 3–4 | MARCH-APRIL 2020 ¡Cuba! River Water Chemistry… ¡Cuba! River Water Chemistry Reveals Rapid Chemical Weathering, the Echo of Uplift, and the Promise of More Sustainable Agriculture Paul Bierman, Dept. of Geology and Gund Institute for Environment, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont 05405, USA; Rita Yvelice Sibello Hernández, Centro de Estudios Ambientales de Cienfuegos, Cienfuegos, Cuba; Amanda H. Schmidt, Geology Dept., Oberlin College, Oberlin, Ohio 44074, USA; Héctor Alejandro Cartas Aguila, Yoelvis Bolaños Alvarez, Aniel Guillén Arruebarrena, Centro de Estudios Ambientales de Cienfuegos, Cienfuegos, Cuba; Mae Kate Campbell, Dept. of Geology and Gund Institute for Environment, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont 05405, USA; David Dethier, Geosciences Dept., Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts 01267, USA; Monica Dix, Geology Dept., Oberlin College, Oberlin, Ohio 44074, USA; Marika Massey-Bierman, Geosciences Dept., Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts 01267, USA; Alejandro García Moya, Centro de Estudios Ambientales de Cienfuegos, Cienfuegos, Cuba; Julia Perdrial, Dept. of Geology and Gund Institute for Environment, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont 05405, USA; Jason Racela, Geosciences Dept., Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts 01267, USA; Carlos Alonso-Hernández, Centro de Estudios Ambientales de Cienfuegos, Cienfuegos, Cuba ABSTRACT concentrations of dissolved nitrogen are far central Cuba, the result of a bi-national, col- For the first time in more than half -
Walton County Planning Division Walton County Courthouse Annex 47 North 6Th Street, Defuniak Springs, Florida 32435 Phone 850-892-8157 Facsimile 850-892-8162
Walton County Planning Division Walton County Courthouse Annex 47 North 6th Street, Defuniak Springs, Florida 32435 Phone 850-892-8157 Facsimile 850-892-8162 January 22, 2015 Walton County 2015 Local Mitigation Strategy Plan Update (Draft) Mr. Miles E. Anderson State Hazard Mitigation Officer Florida Division of Emergency management 2555 Shumard Oak Boulevard Tallahassee, Florida 32399 Dear Mr. Anderson; Enclosed please find a copy of the Walton County Local Mitigation Strategy Plan and 2015 Crosswalk for your review. I have enclosed the following materials: A complete copy has been downloaded to the FDEM Share Point Site as requested. I believe you will find our submittal complete. If you require additional information or have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact me. Respectfully submitted, Renee Bradley, Senior Planner, Chair Walton County LMS Working Group Walton County, Florida BOARD OF COUNTY COMMISSIONERS Bill Imfeld, Chair – District 3 Sara Commander – District 4 Cecelia Jones – District 2 William “Bill” Chapman – District 1 Cindy Meadows – District 5 Mayor Bob Campbell Mayor Russ Barley Mayor Hayward City of DeFuniak Springs City of Freeport Thomas P.O. Box 685 P.O. Box 339 City of Paxton DeFuniak Springs, FL Freeport, FL 32439 P.O. Box 5200 32433 850.835.2822 Paxton, FL 32538 850.892.8500 www.freeportflorida.gov 850.834.2489 www.defuniaksprings.net www.gtcom.net Larry Jones, County Administrator Dede Hinote, Assistant County Administrator Stan Sunday, Assistant County Administrator Prepared by Renee Bradley, Senior -
CEMP Annex E
Collier County Comprehensive Emergency Management Plan 2012 August 1, 2012 COLLIER COUNTY, FLORIDA Comprehensive Emergency M anagement Plan FLOOD WARNING PROGRAM ANNEX E August 1, 2012 Annex E – Page 1 Collier County Comprehensive Emergency Management Plan 2012 August 1, 2012 COLLIER COUNTY FLOOD WARNING PROGRAM I. INTRODUCTION: A. Purpose 1. This program establishes a framework through which Collier County may prepare for, mitigate the impacts of, respond to, and recover from salt water or fresh water flooding conditions that could adversely affect the health, safety and general welfare of Collier County residents and guests. 2. Provisions are made for the needed flexibility of direction, coordination and method of operation to enable government and non-government entities to accomplish their objectives of mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery. This Annex also provides the framework for rendering support to other counties, municipalities, States and the Federal government in their flood management efforts. B. Scope The Collier County Flood Warning Program 1. Describes the various types of flooding that could occur and provides procedures for disseminating warning information and for determining, assessing and reporting the severity and magnitude of flooded areas, 2. Establishes the concepts under which the county government will maintain a 24/7 flood warning program, and 3. Creates a framework for expeditious, effective and coordinated employment of local resources. 4. The County Emergency Management Office administers/disseminates flood warning information to the municipalities and all response operations are conducted under the authority of the Collier County Comprehensive Emergency Management Plan. C. Assumptions 1. The State Agencies of Florida has certain expertise and resources at its disposal that may be used in relieving emergency or disaster related problems that are beyond the County's capability. -
Mariners Weather Log Vol
Mariners Weather Log Vol. 44, No. 3 December 2000 Giant rogue wave as seen from the bridge wing aboard the SS Spray in February 1986. The height of eye was 56 feet and the wave broke over the head of the photographer. It bent the foremast (shown) back 20 degrees. The vessel was in the Gulf Stream off Charleston, South Carolina. A long 15-foot swell was moving south from a gale over Long Island. See http://www.ifremer.fr/metocean/conferences/freak/_waves.htm. Courtesy Captain Andy Chase, Maine Maritime Academy Mariners Weather Log Mariners Weather Log From the Editorial Supervisor Publication of the Mariners Weather Log is coming under the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) in Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, and my role as Editorial Supervisor will end during early 2001. I am leaving the marine program to serve as the new NOAA Weather Wire Program Leader. My successor will be U.S. Department of Commerce Norman Y. Mineta, Secretary announced in the next issue (April 2001). There should be no interruption to the printing schedule. National Oceanic and Managing the production effort for the past six years Atmospheric Administration Dr. D. James Baker, Administrator has been very rewarding. I am particularly gratified at having brought the Log back under direct National Weather Service (NWS) control. Although the Log National Weather Service started out in 1957 as an NWS publication, it had John J. Kelly, Jr., been produced by the National Oceanographic Data Assistant Administrator for Weather Services Center (another NOAA agency) for many years. As a restored NWS publication, I wanted to include more Editorial Supervisor meterological information and related support Martin S. -
1 at a Regular Meeting of the Board of County Commissioners Held in and for Gadsden County, Florida, on January 18, 1994, the Following Proceedings Were Had, Viz
AT A REGULAR MEETING OF THE BOARD OF COUNTY COMMISSIONERS, HELD IN AND FOR GADSDEN COUNTY, FLORIDA, ON JANUARY 4, 1994, THE FOLLOWING PROCEEDING WERE HAD, VIZ. PRESENT: EDWARD DIXON, CHAIRMAN FORREST DAVIS, VICE-CHAIRMAN ANTHONY POWELL JAMES PEACOCK BILL MCGILL HAL RICHMOND, ATTORNEY JAMES CARTER, COUNTY MANAGER NICHOLAS THOMAS, CLERK CALL TO ORDER Chairman Dixon called the meeting to order. Commissioner Powell led in the pledge of allegiance to the U. S. Flag. Commissioner Peacock then opened the meeting with prayer. ADOPTION OF THE AGENDA UPON MOTION OF COMMISSIONER POWELL AND SECOND BY COMMISSIONER PEACOCK, THE BOARD VOTED 5 - 0 TO ADOPT THE AGENDA AS PRINTED. APPROVAL OF THE MINUTES OF THE DECEMBER 21, 1993 MEETING Commissioner McGill noted one error in the minutes of December 21, 1993. He asked that the word "block" be removed from the only sentence in the fifth paragraph of page 4. The grant is not a block grant - it is an individual grant which people apply for through Farmer's Home Administration. UPON MOTION OF COMMISSIONER MCGILL AND SECOND BY COMMISSIONER PEACOCK, THE BOARD VOTED 5 - 0 TO APPROVE THE MINUTES OF THE DECEMBER 21, 1993 MEETING AS CORRECTED. COUNTY ATTORNEY Public Hearing on the Proposed Nudity Ordinance Mr. Richmond announced the public hearing of the duly advertised Notice of Intent with regard to the proposed nudity ordinance. He asked for public input. 1 Board of County Commission Gadsden County January 4, 1994 Page 2 of 9 The chairman asked the audience members if anyone would like to speak in favor of the nudity ordinance. -
Annual Summary of Global Tropical Cyclone Season
ANNUAL SUMMARY OF GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON 2000 WMO/TD-No. 1082 Report No. TCP - 46 SECRETARIAT OF THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION - GENEVA - SWITZERLAND 2000 Edition CONTENTS Page PART A Introduction 1 Monitoring, forecasting and warning of tropical cyclones 3 Tropical cyclone RSMCs 6 RSMC La Réunion - Tropical Cyclone Centre RSMC Miami - Hurricane Center/USA National Hurricane Center RSMC Nadi - Tropical Cyclone Centre RSMC - tropical cyclones New Delhi RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center Tropical cyclone warning centres with regional responsibility 10 PART B ANNUAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARIES (YEAR 2000) I. RSMC La Réunion - Tropical Cyclone Centre II. RSMC Miami - Hurricane Center/USA National Hurricane Center III. RSMC Nadi - Tropical Cyclone Centre, TCWC - Brisbane, TCWC - Wellington IV. RSMC - tropical cyclones New Delhi V. RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center VI. CPHC - Honolulu, RSMC Miami - Hurricane Center VII. TCWC - Darwin, TCWC - Perth, (TCWC - Brisbane) 2000 Edition INTRODUCTION About 80 tropical cyclones form annually over warm tropical oceans. When they develop and attain an intensity with surface wind speed exceeding 118 km/h, they are called hurricanes in the western hemisphere, typhoons in the western North Pacific region and severe tropical cyclones, tropical cyclones or similar names in other regions. Such tropical cyclones are among the most devastating of all natural hazards. Their potential for wrecking havoc caused by their violent winds, torrential rainfall and associated storm surges, floods, tornadoes and mud slides is exacerbated by the length and width of the areas they affect, their severity, frequency of occurrence and the vulnerability of the impacted areas. Every year several tropical cyclones cause sudden-onset disasters of varying harshness, with loss of life, human suffering, destruction of property, severe disruption of normal activities and set-back to social and economic advances. -
Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2000
DECEMBER 2001 ANNUAL SUMMARY 3037 Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2000 JAMES L. FRANKLIN,LIXION A. AVILA,JACK L. BEVEN,MILES B. LAWRENCE,RICHARD J. PASCH, AND STACY R. STEWART National Hurricane Center, Tropical Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 14 February 2001, in ®nal form 14 May 2001) ABSTRACT The 2000 Atlantic hurricane season is summarized and the year's tropical and subtropical cyclones are de- scribed. While overall activity was very high compared to climatology, with 15 cyclones attaining tropical (or subtropical) storm intensity, much of this activity occurred outside of the deep Tropics, over open waters north of 258N. The season's tropical cyclones were responsible for 54 fatalities, with most of these occurring in Central America in association with Hurricanes Gordon and Keith. 1. Introduction ditions prior to landfall. There were no hurricane land- falls in the continental United States, but both Gordon By most measures, tropical cyclone activity in the and Helene came ashore in northern Florida as tropical Atlantic hurricane basin was above average in the year storms. Only twice before (in 1951 and 1990) have there 2000. Including an unnamed subtropical storm that oc- been as many as eight hurricanes in a season with no curred in late October, there were 15 cyclones of at least U.S. hurricane landfalls. Total U.S. damage for the sea- tropical (or subtropical) storm strength (Table 1). Of son is estimated to be a modest $27 million. However, these, eight became hurricanes, and three, Alberto, this does not include roughly $950 million in ¯ood dam- Isaac, and Keith, became ``major'' hurricanes [i.e., max- age in south Florida caused, in part, by the precursor imum 1-min average winds greater than 96 kt (1 kt 5 disturbance to Tropical Storm Leslie. -
A Statistical Model to Forecast Short-Term Atlantic Hurricane Intensity
A STATISTICAL MODEL TO FORECAST SHORT-TERM ATLANTIC HURRICANE INTENSITY DISSERTATION Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By Kevin T. Law, M.S. ***** The Ohio State University 2006 Dissertation Committee: Approved by Professor Jay S. Hobgood, Adviser Professor Jeffrey C. Rogers ___________________________________ Professor Lawrence Krissek Adviser Graduate Program in Atmospheric Science ABSTRACT The accuracy of hurricane intensity forecasts has lagged the accuracy of hurricane track forecasts thereby creating a need for improvement. Many models struggle capturing the rapid intensification period and identifying when it will occur which causes a large amount of error in the intensity forecasts. The method described in this paper uses a discriminant function analysis (DFA) to help identify how intense the tropical cyclone will become and also how close it is to the rapid intensification period. Identifying the proximity to the rapid intensification period is a key factor in improving the intensity forecasts. Based upon the intensity and its proximity to its rapid intensification period, as selected by the DFA, an appropriate regression model is applied to forecast the 24-hour and 6-hour pressure reduction and wind speed increase. Other statistical intensity models apply the same regression model throughout the entire lifecycle of the tropical cyclone. This model relies on the premise that factors which cause intensification affect the tropical cyclone differently throughout its life cycle. Therefore, by using the DFA, different stages in its life cycle are identified, which allows the regression model to use the most significant variables at the particular stage.