DOCSLIB.ORG

Port of Manzanillo: Climate Risk Management

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Port of Manzanillo: Climate Risk Management FINAL REPORT Port of Manzanillo: Climate Risk Management September 2015 Mejorando vidas Copyright © 2015 Inter-American Development Bank. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons IGO 3.0 Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives (CC-IGO BY-NC- ND 3.0 IGO) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/ by-nc-nd/3.0/igo/legalcode) and may be reproduced with attribution to the IDB and for any non-commercial purpose. No derivative work is allowed. Any dispute related to the use of the works of the IDB that cannot be settled amicably shall be submitted to arbitration pursuant to the UNCITRAL rules. The use of the IDB’s name for any purpose other than for attribution, and the use of IDB’s logo shall be subject to a separate written license agreement between the IDB and the user and is not authorized as part of this CC-IGO license. Note that link provided above includes additional terms and conditions of the license. The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Inter- American Development Bank, its Board of Directors, or the countries they represent. 2 FINAL REPORT Port of Manzanillo: Climate Risk Management September 2015 Manzanillo, Mexico Mejorando vidas © 2015, Inter-American Development Bank State of Colima: Instituto para el Medio Ambiente y Desarrollo Sustentable del Estado de Colima (IMADES), Centro Universitario de Gestión Ambiental (CEUGEA, AUTHORED BY Universidad de Colima), Secretaría de Desarrollo Urbano del Estado de Colima. Richenda Connell and Laura Canevari, Acclimatise Group Limited; Chris Coleby, Stewart Wright, John N. Robertson, Federal Government: Comisión Nacional del Agua Will Morgan, Antonio Cerezo, Alvaro Rivero, Guadalupe (CONAGUA), Centro Nacional de Prevención de De- Ugarte, Robert Larson and Christopher Carr, WorleyPar- sastres (CENAPRED), Comisión Nacional de Áreas Na- sons; Richard Washington, Universidad de Oxford; Edu- turales Protegidas (CONANP), Comisión Nacional para ardo Saucedo and Efrén Ramírez, Consultoría Técnica; el Conocimiento y Uso de la Biodiversidad (CONABIO), Marcelo Olivera, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana; Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático (IN- Austin Becker, Universidad de Rhode Island. ECC), Instituto Mexicano del Transporte (IMT), Secretaría de Comunicaciones y Transportes (SCT), Secretaría We thank Inter-American Development Bank staff mem- de Marina (SEMAR), Secretaría del Medio Ambiente y bers Joana Pascual, Melissa Barandiarán, Gmelina Ramírez, Recursos Naturales (SEMARNAT), and Secretaría de Ernesto Monter Flores and Juan-Pablo Martínez-Molina for Turismo (SECTUR). their comments throughout the development of this study. The authors wish to thank the management and staff of API DESIGNED BY Manzanillo for their continuous support and cooperationin this study, especially Rosa Aurora Quiroz Dahas, Alejandro Ana Dorado Infodesign Abundis Santamaría, Roberto López Ceballos, Zayda Ar- menta, Berenice López, Juan Manuel de los Santos, Juan Carlos Córdova Estrada and Francisco Santana Roldán. This report was produced with the support of the In- RIGHTS AND PERMITS ternational Finance Corporation. The technical lead for the study was Vladimir Stenek, International Finance The material in this publication is subject to copyright. Corporation, World Bank Group. Quote, copy and / or reproduction of any portion or all of this publication is permitted provided that the The authors also wish to thank the following organiza- reference is mentioned. tions for their contributions to this study. Publication of this report was made possible through Port community: APASCO, CEMEX, CONTECON, FRIMAN, financial support provided by the IDB’s Infrastructure GRANELERA, HAZESA, LA JUNTA, MARFRIGO, MULTI- Project Preparation Fund (INFRAFUND). MODAL, OCUPA, PEMEX, SSA, TIMSA, USG, Capitanía de Puerto, Ayuntamiento de Manzanillo, FERROMEX. 4 5 Forewords Message from the Vice President for the Private Sector and Non-Sovereign Guaranteed Operations, a.i., at the Inter-American Development Bank Hans U. Schulz Ports are located in coastal areas that are increasingly sus- reducing draft clearance for vessels and terminal access, ceptible to climate change impacts. By 2050, according due to increased rainfall intensity; and (iii) increased to IDB estimates, rising sea levels, temperature increases intensity of rainfall causing increased damage to infra- and changes in rainfall patterns will result in an estimat- structure and equipment through surface water flooding. ed annual cost of 2-4 percent of GDP for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)1. Climate change has already The aim of this study is to analyze in depth the cli- begun to affect the availability of resources, supply and mate-related risks and opportunities facing the Port demand of products and services, and performance of of Manzanillo in Mexico. The report also provides an physical assets, making it urgent to strengthen public Adaptation Plan for the port. The Port of Manzanillo policy priorities on climate change. Financial returns becomes once again a pioneer, as this is the first climate as well as management of non-financial risks, such as risk management study performed on a full port in LAC. economic development and environmental and social issues, may be affected if climate change is not taken into account in investment strategies. We estimate that the 340 extreme weather phenomena observed in 2007- 2012 in LAC left at least 8,000 dead, affected more than 37 million people and led to economic losses of more than US$ 32 billion. Low-income people and women are disproportionately affected by climate change. More than 80 percent of goods traded worldwide are transported by sea. Ports in developing countries handle more than 40 percent of the total containerized traffic, of which a significant portion relates to export of goods produced in the country2. Maritime infrastructure and transport sector is critical to trade growth in most of LAC. The region accounts for 41.8 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), about 7% of the world’s total3. Within Latin America, Mexico represents 10.23 percent of total port traffic or third place. As Mexico is a key operational hub for the logistics sup- 1. Climate Change at the IDB: Building Resilience and Reducing ply chain in LAC, it is critical to undertake an ex- ante Emissions –Inter-American Development Bank (IDB). http:// assessment in collaboration with key logistics providers publications.iadb.org/handle/11319/6692?locale-attribute=en#s- and or local governments to address vulnerability to thash.vTioHDnt.dpuf climate change. Thus, while ports in Mexico could be impacted by climate change locally, changes to the sup- 2. Climate Risk and Business: Ports, Terminal Marítimo Muelles el ply chain and local infrastructure can create additional Bosque –International Finance Corporation (IFC), World Bank disruptions that require working collaboratively on a Group. http://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/topics_ext_con- broader climate risk and adaptation strategy. tent/ifc_external_corporate_site/cb_home/publications/cli- materisk_ports Specifically, in the case of the Port of Manzanillo, a climate change risk assessment conducted found that aspects 3. According to the United Nations Economic Commission for of performance are likely to be significantly affected due Latin America and the Caribbean (UN ECLAC) statistic on to climate change, if no action is taken, specifically: (i) transport: http://www.cepal.org/cgi-bin/getProd.asp?xml=/ increased rainfall intensity causing greater surface water perfil/noticias/noticias/1/53131/P53131.xml&xsl=/perfil/tpl-i/ flooding of the internal port access road and rail con- p1f.xsl&base=/perfil/tpl/top-bottom.xsl nections; (ii) increased sedimentation of the port basin, 6 Message from the Director General of the Port Authority of Manzanillo Vice Admiral Ruben Bustos Jorge Espino I am pleased to announce that the participation of the Port Authority of Manzanillo in the study: Port of Man- zanillo: Climate Risk Management, together with the Inter-American Development Bank, strengthens the objectives and actions set out in the Mexican National Development Plan 2013-2018 to address the adverse effects of climate change. The content of this study will undoubtedly serve as a guide to determine priorities and programs to encourage best practices of climate change adaptation and miti- gation to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, more sustainable and environmentally friendly processes in the Manzanillo port community. We commit to include this study as part of the strategy, plans and the daily actions of our performance. We thank all the institutions, federal, state and municipal agencies, terminals and port service providers who made possible this study –first of its kind for a Mexican port, who generously and transparently shared information, experience and practices in the use of systems and technologies oriented to operation with low-carbon emissions. 7 Contents 1. Study aims, approach and main findings 15 1.1. Study aims and audience 16 1.2. Overview of the Port of Manzanillo 19 1.3. Overview of other main ports in Mexico 24 1.4. Climate adaptation policy frameworks and port policy 25 frameworks at Federal, State and Municipal levels 1.5. Methodological approach to the study 31 1.6. Priority climate change risks, opportunities and adaptation 41 actions identified for the Port of Manzanillo 1.7. Adaptation Plan for the Port of Manzanillo 46 2. Current and future climate, hydrological
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific Ab Sins Nicholas S
    Louisiana State University LSU Digital Commons LSU Master's Theses Graduate School March 2019 Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific aB sins Nicholas S. Grondin Louisiana State University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses Part of the Climate Commons, Meteorology Commons, and the Physical and Environmental Geography Commons Recommended Citation Grondin, Nicholas S., "Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific asinB s" (2019). LSU Master's Theses. 4864. https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses/4864 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at LSU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in LSU Master's Theses by an authorized graduate school editor of LSU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. CLIMATOLOGY, VARIABILITY, AND RETURN PERIODS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE STRIKES IN THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC BASINS A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in The Department of Geography and Anthropology by Nicholas S. Grondin B.S. Meteorology, University of South Alabama, 2016 May 2019 Dedication This thesis is dedicated to my family, especially mom, Mim and Pop, for their love and encouragement every step of the way. This thesis is dedicated to my friends and fraternity brothers, especially Dillon, Sarah, Clay, and Courtney, for their friendship and support. This thesis is dedicated to all of my teachers and college professors, especially Mrs.
    [Show full text]
  • Big Early Voting Turnout
    SPORTS POW WOW FRIDAY FOOTBALL WACCAMAW SIOUAN MATCHES YIELD WINS FOR POW WOW WAS SCHS, ECHS SATURDAY uu SPORTS 3B uu POW WOW 10A The News Reporter Published since 1890 every Monday and Thursday for the County of Columbus and her people. WWW.NRCOLUMBUS.COM Monday, November 7, 2016 75 CENTS Big early voting turnout By Allen Turner [email protected] Early voting ended Saturday af- ter two weeks of heavy turnout as other voters prepared to go to the polls on the official Election Day Tuesday. Polls will open at 6:30 a.m. on Tuesday at all 26 Columbus County voting precincts and remain open until 7:30 p.m. One voting location, the Fair Bluff precinct, has been moved from its usual location of Fair Bluff Fire and Rescue to Johnny’s Sandwich Shop at 899 Main St., due to damage from Hurricane Matthew at the fire department. Complete numbers are not available on how many Columbus Countians cast early ballots be- uu VOTING 6A Photo by Grant Merritt Festival Queen Rachel McPherson and her six Belles on their float were escorted by cadets from Camden Military Academy. Bridge NCFS fills gaps during response, recovery could be By Jefferson Weaver lands, Malcolm said the agency’s mis- [email protected] sion includes emergency response. complete “It was a natural outgrowth of fire- Among the red, blue, yellow and fighting,” he explained. “It really isn’t white vehicles helping Columbus that unusual for Forest Service crews County residents during Hurricane to be deployed in a natural disaster.” in spring Matthew, there were a lot of green Malcolm said NCFS crews have trucks as well.
    [Show full text]
  • ANNUAL SUMMARIES Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season of 2000
    3004 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 129 ANNUAL SUMMARIES Eastern North Paci®c Hurricane Season of 2000 MILES B. LAWRENCE,LIXION A. AVILA,JACK L. BEVEN,JAMES L. FRANKLIN,RICHARD J. PASCH, AND STACY R. STEWART National Hurricane Center, Tropical Prediction Center, NCEP, NOAA/NWS, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 16 May 2001, in ®nal form 29 June 2001) ABSTRACT There were 11 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 tropical depressions during the 2000 eastern North Paci®c hurricane season. Two tropical storms made landfall in Mexico. 1. Introduction teorological analyses. After each cyclone has ended, a There were 11 tropical storms and 6 hurricanes in the ``best track'' is determined using all available data. The eastern Paci®c basin in the year 2000, totaling 17 named best track is a table of 6-hourly estimates of the cy- tropical cyclones. This is two more than the 1966±99 clone's center position, maximum 1-min wind speed (10 m above the surface), and minimum sea level pressure.2 average of 15 named tropical cyclones.1 In contrast, the total of six hurricanes is three less than the long-term With the exception of a few aerial reconnaissance average of nine. There were also two tropical depres- ¯ights, all of this season's best track data were derived sions that did not reach tropical storm strength. The from satellite data and occasional land and ship reports. named tropical cyclones are listed in Table 1, along with The method for estimating the maximum 1-min wind their dates, maximum 1-min surface wind speed, min- speed from satellite imagery is the Dvorak technique imum sea level pressure, and directly attributable deaths.
    [Show full text]
  • 34270 2012Stateoftheclimatelow.Pdf
    STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2012 Editors Jessica Blunden Derek S. Arndt Chapter Editors Howard J. Diamond Martin O. Jeffries Ahira Sánchez-Lugo A. Johannes Dolman Michele L. Newlin Wassila M. Thiaw Ryan L. Fogt James A. Renwick Peter W. Thorne Margarita C. Gregg Jacqueline A. Richter-Menge Scott J. Weaver Bradley D. Hall Ted A. Scambos Kate M. Willett Technical Editor Mara Sprain AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY COVER CREDITS: FRONT: Kate Stafford — 2012 RUSALCA Expedition,RAS-NOAA, Wrangel Island in the early morning BACK:Terry Callaghan,EU-Interact/Sergey Kirpotin,Tomsk State University — Trees take hold as permafrost thaws near the Altai Mountains in Russia HOW TO CITE THIS DOCUMENT Citing the complete report: Blunden, J., and D. S. Arndt, Eds., 2013: State of the Climate in 2012. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94 (8), S1–S238. Citing a chapter (example): Jeffries, M. O., and J. Richter-Menge, Eds., 2013: Arctic [in “State of the Climate in 2012”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94 (8), S111– S146. Citing a section (example): Tedesco, M., and Coauthors, 2013: [Arctic] Greenland ice sheet [in “State of the Climate in 2012”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94 (8), S121–S123. EDITOR & AUTHOR AFFILIATIONS (ALPHABETICAL BY NAME) Achberger, Christine, Department of Earth Sciences, University Bell, Gerald D., NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center, College of Gothenburg, Sweden Park, MD Ackerman, Stephen A., Cooperative Institute for Meteorologi- Benedetti, Angela, European Centre for Medium-Range cal Satellite Studies, University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, Weather
    [Show full text]
  • Objective Identification of Annular Hurricanes
    FEBRUARY 2008 KNAFFETAL. 17 Objective Identification of Annular Hurricanes JOHN A. KNAFF NOAA/NESDIS/Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Fort Collins, Colorado THOMAS A. CRAM Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado ANDREA B. SCHUMACHER Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado JAMES P. KOSSIN Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, University of Wisconsin—Madison, Madison, Wisconsin MARK DEMARIA NOAA/NESDIS/Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Fort Collins, Colorado (Manuscript received 26 March 2006, in final form 21 June 2007) ABSTRACT Annular hurricanes are a subset of intense tropical cyclones that have been shown in previous work to be significantly stronger, to maintain their peak intensities longer, and to weaken more slowly than average tropical cyclones. Because of these characteristics, they represent a significant forecasting challenge. This paper updates the list of annular hurricanes to encompass the years 1995–2006 in both the North Atlantic and eastern–central North Pacific tropical cyclone basins. Because annular hurricanes have a unique ap- pearance in infrared satellite imagery, and form in a specific set of environmental conditions, an objective real-time method of identifying these hurricanes is developed. However, since the occurrence of annular hurricanes is rare (ϳ4% of all hurricanes), a special algorithm to detect annular hurricanes is developed that employs two steps to identify the candidates: 1) prescreening the data and 2) applying a linear discriminant analysis. This algorithm is trained using a dependent dataset (1995–2003) that includes 11 annular hurri- canes. The resulting algorithm is then independently tested using datasets from the years 2004–06, which contained an additional three annular hurricanes.
    [Show full text]
  • A Global Climatology of Tropical Cyclone Eyes
    JULY 2018 K N A P P E T A L . 2089 A Global Climatology of Tropical Cyclone Eyes KENNETH R. KNAPP NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information, Asheville, North Carolina CHRISTOPHER S. VELDEN AND ANTHONY J. WIMMERS Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, Wisconsin (Manuscript received 13 November 2017, in final form 4 May 2018) ABSTRACT Intense tropical cyclones (TCs) generally produce a cloud-free center with calm winds, called the eye. The Automated Rotational Center Hurricane Eye Retrieval (ARCHER) algorithm is used to analyze Hurricane Satellite (HURSAT) B1 infrared satellite imagery data for storms occurring globally from 1982 to 2015. HURSAT B1 data provide 3-hourly observations of TCs. The result is a 34-yr climatology of eye location and size. During that time period, eyes are identified in about 13% of all infrared images and slightly more than half of all storms produced an eye. Those that produce an eye have (on average) 30 h of eye scenes. Hurricane Ioke (1992) had the most eye images (98, which is 12 complete days with an eye). The median wind speed of a 2 2 system with an eye is 97 kt (50 m s 1) [cf. 35 kt (18 m s 1) for those without an eye]. Eyes are much more frequent in the Northern Hemisphere (particularly in the western Pacific) but eyes are larger in the Southern Hemisphere. The regions where eyes occur are expanding poleward, thus expanding the area at risk of TC-related damage. Also, eye scene occurrence can provide an objective measure of TC activity in place of those based on maximum wind speeds, which can be affected by available observations and forecast agency practices.
    [Show full text]
  • Tropical Cyclone Report Hurricane Daniel (EP052006) 16-26 July 2006
    Tropical Cyclone Report Hurricane Daniel (EP052006) 16-26 July 2006 Jack Beven National Hurricane Center 30 November 2006 (updated 4 January 2007 for best track intensities and verification) Daniel reached category 4 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale over the open eastern North Pacific. a. Synoptic History Daniel formed from a tropical wave that moved westward from the coast of Africa on 2 July. The wave crossed the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea with little associated convection and reached the eastern North Pacific Ocean on 12 July. As the wave moved westward, convection increased beginning on 13 July, and the system showed signs of convective organization starting on 15 July. It is estimated that the wave spawned a tropical depression near 1800 UTC 16 July about 455 n mi south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. The “best track” chart of the tropical cyclone’s path is given in Fig. 1, with the wind and pressure histories shown in Figs. 2 and 3, respectively. The best track positions and intensities are listed in Table 1. The cyclone moved westward in a light vertical shear environment to the south of a large subtropical ridge. It strengthened into a tropical storm on 17 July and into a hurricane on 18 July. Daniel turned west-northwestward on 20 July, when intensification was briefly halted by an eyewall replacement cycle. Strengthening resumed after the cycle, and it is estimated that Daniel became a category 4 hurricane later that day about 965 n mi southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Daniel turned westward on 21 July during a second eyewall replacement cycle.
    [Show full text]
  • Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season of 2006
    VOLUME 137 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW JANUARY 2009 Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season of 2006 RICHARD J. PASCH,ERIC S. BLAKE,LIXION A. AVILA,JOHN L. BEVEN,DANIEL P. BROWN, JAMES L. FRANKLIN,RICHARD D. KNABB,MICHELLE M. MAINELLI,JAMIE R. RHOME, AND STACY R. STEWART Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 20 December 2007, in final form 20 May 2008) ABSTRACT The hurricane season of 2006 in the eastern North Pacific basin is summarized, and the individual tropical cyclones are described. Also, the official track and intensity forecasts of these cyclones are verified and evaluated. The 2006 eastern North Pacific season was an active one, in which 18 tropical storms formed. Of these, 10 became hurricanes and 5 became major hurricanes. A total of 2 hurricanes and 1 tropical depres- sion made landfall in Mexico, causing 13 direct deaths in that country along with significant property damage. On average, the official track forecasts in the eastern Pacific for 2006 were quite skillful. No appreciable improvement in mean intensity forecasts was noted, however. 1. Overview speeds in knots every 6 h for all tropical and subtropical cyclones while at or above tropical storm strength. The After three consecutive below-average hurricane ACE for 2006 in the eastern North Pacific was 120 ϫ seasons, tropical cyclone activity in the eastern North 104 kt2, or about 107% of the long-term (1971–2005) Pacific basin was above average in 2006. A total of 18 mean. Although the ACE value for 2006 was just tropical storms developed, and 10 of these strengthened slightly above average, it was the highest observed since into hurricanes (Table 1; Fig.
    [Show full text]
  • Skip Allen on Weather/Routing to Hawaii
    2010 SHTP Weather Discussion by Skip Allen aka sleddog Weather/Tactics Discussion (Intro) 2010 SHTP Bug Lighters: In tribute to WILDFLOWER, my partner in the 1978 and 2008 SHTP's, over the next few weeks I will be posting a multi-part weather/tactical discussion based on first-hand experience in 28 West Coast-Hawaiian Races since 1961. I would welcome other's experiences and questions. All courses noted are given in magnetic degrees. PRE RACE WX/TACTICAL PREP Though the main goal of racing SHTP is the challenge of making a safe and fun ocean crossing, much of the pleasure of the SHTP is arriving at Hanalei in a timely manner. Reunions with family, friends, and competitors, Tree Time, and enjoying the pleasures of tropical Kauai are all incentives for a fast passage. Not to mention the Race deadline of 21 days. SHTP requires a basic understanding of weather conditions from start to finish, and how best to use them to advantage. An excellent overall view is Stan Honey's "Slotcars to Hawaii," available online. Jim Corenman's treatise in the Pacific Cup Handbook is also an excellent resource. Firsthand SHTP weather stories, such as related in the Crawford's BLACK FEATHERS, as well as past Forum posts and logs from previous SHTP's can be mined for information.. The most thorough understanding of SHTP weather, and relevant tactics, is only as valuable as the route chosen. A simple but comprehensive GAME PLAN is invaluable. The GAME PLAN is based on forecasts and real time observations before leaving the dock.
    [Show full text]
  • Objective Identification of Annular Hurricanes
    FEBRUARY 2008 KNAFFETAL. 17 Objective Identification of Annular Hurricanes JOHN A. KNAFF NOAA/NESDIS/Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Fort Collins, Colorado THOMAS A. CRAM Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado ANDREA B. SCHUMACHER Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado JAMES P. KOSSIN Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, University of Wisconsin—Madison, Madison, Wisconsin MARK DEMARIA NOAA/NESDIS/Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Fort Collins, Colorado (Manuscript received 26 March 2006, in final form 21 June 2007) ABSTRACT Annular hurricanes are a subset of intense tropical cyclones that have been shown in previous work to be significantly stronger, to maintain their peak intensities longer, and to weaken more slowly than average tropical cyclones. Because of these characteristics, they represent a significant forecasting challenge. This paper updates the list of annular hurricanes to encompass the years 1995–2006 in both the North Atlantic and eastern–central North Pacific tropical cyclone basins. Because annular hurricanes have a unique ap- pearance in infrared satellite imagery, and form in a specific set of environmental conditions, an objective real-time method of identifying these hurricanes is developed. However, since the occurrence of annular hurricanes is rare (ϳ4% of all hurricanes), a special algorithm to detect annular hurricanes is developed that employs two steps to identify the candidates: 1) prescreening the data and 2) applying a linear discriminant analysis. This algorithm is trained using a dependent dataset (1995–2003) that includes 11 annular hurri- canes. The resulting algorithm is then independently tested using datasets from the years 2004–06, which contained an additional three annular hurricanes.
    [Show full text]
  • Impact of Turbulence on Hurricane Intensity
    IMPACT OF TURBULENCE ON HURRICANE INTENSITY FORECASTING SOPAN ANANTHA KURKUTE A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE GRADUATE PROGRAM IN EARTH, SPACE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES YORK UNIVERSITY TORONTO, ONTARIO December, 2014 © Sopan Anantha Kurkute, 2014 Abstract Hurricane intensity prediction and track forecasts are very sensitive to tur- bulence within the Hurricane Boundary Layer (HBL). In the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model the effect of the sub- grid scale (SGS) turbulence can be represented by varying the magnitude of the model grid-size (∆x) and Smagorinsky constant (Cs ). The effect of turbu- lence on the hurricane intensity has been investigated by simulating Hurricane Danielle (2010) using WRF-ARW model. The properties and characteristics of the turbulence within the HBL has been investigated by a Large Eddy Simu- lation (LES) of the idealised Hurricane using WRF. The kinetic energy spectra computed for a high-resolution domain of grid-size ∆x = 62m showed that the size of the maximum energetic turbulent eddies lies between 700m-3000m and matches well with the estimated horizontal turbulence mixing length scale Lh ≈ 750m − 1500m. Defining a filter scale of ≈ 1:5km matching with the resolution of the current hurricane forecast models, the flow in the HBL was spectrally decomposed into the filter scale and sub-filter scale (SFS) motions. The SFS turbulent motions were then used for diagnosing the turbulence prop- erties within HBL. The estimated Turbulent Kinetic Energy (TKE) budget shows that shear production is the dominant mechanism for generating tur- bulence, but it is also largely balanced by the advection within the HBL.
    [Show full text]
  • Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season of 2006
    VOLUME 137 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW JANUARY 2009 Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season of 2006 RICHARD J. PASCH,ERIC S. BLAKE,LIXION A. AVILA,JOHN L. BEVEN,DANIEL P. BROWN, JAMES L. FRANKLIN,RICHARD D. KNABB,MICHELLE M. MAINELLI,JAMIE R. RHOME, AND STACY R. STEWART Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 20 December 2007, in final form 20 May 2008) ABSTRACT The hurricane season of 2006 in the eastern North Pacific basin is summarized, and the individual tropical cyclones are described. Also, the official track and intensity forecasts of these cyclones are verified and evaluated. The 2006 eastern North Pacific season was an active one, in which 18 tropical storms formed. Of these, 10 became hurricanes and 5 became major hurricanes. A total of 2 hurricanes and 1 tropical depres- sion made landfall in Mexico, causing 13 direct deaths in that country along with significant property damage. On average, the official track forecasts in the eastern Pacific for 2006 were quite skillful. No appreciable improvement in mean intensity forecasts was noted, however. 1. Overview speeds in knots every 6 h for all tropical and subtropical cyclones while at or above tropical storm strength. The After three consecutive below-average hurricane ACE for 2006 in the eastern North Pacific was 120 ϫ seasons, tropical cyclone activity in the eastern North 104 kt2, or about 107% of the long-term (1971–2005) Pacific basin was above average in 2006. A total of 18 mean. Although the ACE value for 2006 was just tropical storms developed, and 10 of these strengthened slightly above average, it was the highest observed since into hurricanes (Table 1; Fig.
    [Show full text]