A report on all cyclones that formed in 2018, with detailed season statistics and records that were achieved worldwide this year. Compiled by Nathan Foy at Force Thirteen, December 2018, January 2019 E-mail: [email protected] Cover photo: International Space Station image of Hurricane Lane on August 18, 2018 Below photo: GOES-16 Sandwich imagery of Hurricane Michael shortly before its Florida landfall on October 10, 2018. Originally sourced from Force Thirteen’s live stream output. Contents 1. Background 3 1.1 2018 in summary 3 1.2 Pre-season predictions 4 1.3 Historical perspective 6 2. The 2018 Datasheet 9 2.1 Peak Intensities 9 2.2 Amount of Landfalls and Nations Affected 12 2.3 Fatalities, Injuries, and Missing persons 17 2.4 Monetary damages 19 2.5 Buildings damaged and destroyed 21 2.6 Evacuees 22 2.7 Timeline 23 3. 2018 Storm Records 26 3.1 Intensity and Longevity 27 3.2 Activity Records 30 3.3 Landfall Records 32 3.4 Eye and Size Records 33 3.5 Intensification Rate 34 4. Force Thirteen during 2018 35 4.1 Forecasting critique and storm coverage 36 4.2 Viewing statistics 37 5. 2018 Storm Image Gallery 39 6. Ways to contact Force Thirteen 42 2 1.1. 2018 in Summary Activity in 2018 has been well above average, with numbers approaching record levels. Sea Surface temperatures started cooler than average, but warmed relative to average through the year building into a mild El Nino event. The Pacific and North Indian Ocean behaved as expected for the prevailing conditions, all having well above average seasons. The Atlantic also exceeded the long term average, although many storms were of an unorthodox subtropical nature. This may be due to well above average mid-latitude sea surface temperatures over the Atlantic, which peaked relative to average in August. This year saw 115 tropical cyclones, of which 106 were tropical storms, 56 of hurricane strength, and 32 of major hurricane strength. This compares to 96, 87, 41 and 21 last year, a slight change to what was reported in last year’s report due to standard reanalysis. Water temperatures and climatological analog years suggested more activity in the central and western Pacific, as well as an active start to the 2018-19 Southern Hemisphere cyclone season. 2018 began with several significant cyclones in the southern hemisphere—Ava, Berguitta, Cebile, and Gita. The southern hemisphere fizzled out for the most part Top image: Sea Surface Temperature anomalies in January after Cyclone Marcus in March, which became the first 2018, versus the lower image, showing SST anomalies in Category 5 storm of the year worldwide. December 2018. The images best show the regression of the The western Pacific began mildly with the exception of La Nina and slight El Nino that developed later in the year. major Typhoon Jelawat at the end of March. Otherwise, the basin only produced tropical storms until late June. May was a fascinating month in the North Indian Ocean, featuring Cyclone Sagar. The storm made landfall on the border between Djibouti and Somaliland, the first to make landfall in the area since 1984. Later that month, Cyclone Mekunu made landfall near Salalah, Oman, as a Category 3 storm. The Atlantic ocean also sprung into life with the formation of Subtropical Storm Alberto, briefly becoming tropical as it made landfall on the Florida Panhandle. The rest of the year was illustrated primarily with a series of intense storms in the Western Pacific, a succession of long tracking hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific, and two exceptional storms to prevent what would have been a lacklustre Atlantic hurricane season in 2018. Major activity first began in early July, when Typhoon Maria struck the coast of China and islands of Taiwan as a Category 3 storm, coming off from its Category 5 peak. This coincided with Hurricane Chris as it unsuccessfully bid for major status in the Atlantic, whilst the remnants of tiny Hurricane Beryl were still churning. August brought Category 5 hurricane Lane which posed a major threat to Hawaii, which did materialise in the form of its excessive rainfall on the Big Island. The end of the month saw Category 5 Typhoon Jebi, which blew through Japan after some weakening. September saw the biggest event of the year, when Hurricane Florence and Typhoon Mangkhut were posing severe risks to opposing sides of the world. Mangkhut put an end to the second longest typhoon drought in Philippine history, by becoming the first Category 5 to make landfall on the islands since Meranti of 2016. The energy in the Western Pacific continued into October, with Category 5 Typhoons Trami, Kong-Rey, and most impressively, Typhoon Yutu. In the meantime, Hurricane Michael became the strongest storm of the Atlantic hurricane season when it struck the Florida Panhandle region, and Hurricane Willa reached Category 5 status in the Eastern Pacific. 3 1.2. Pre-Season Predictions North Atlantic Ocean On April 5 2018, Force Thirteen released its projection for the Atlantic Hurricane Season, suggesting near average activity (typically defined as within 20% of the long-term averages). The season produced 4 more tropical storms than the projection, a large part owing to a warm subtropical region which played a factor in the generation of Debby, Ernesto, Joyce, and Leslie. Oscar, whilst forming in the subtropics, was not such an anomalous storm as sea surface temperatures were near average during its formation. The pre-season prediction ran low by similar margins for hurricanes and major hurricanes, with the final totals for all three columns being 16, 8, and 3, according to Force Thirteen’s intensity estimates. Key Message Verification Higher than normal chance of Hurricane conditions on the US East Coast north of Florida: Verified Enhanced risk of hurricane activity in Atlantic Canada: Did not verify Risk of hurricane activity in Bermuda: Did not verify Risk of hurricane activity on Yucatan Peninsula: Did not verify High probability of “wandering” hurricanes out at sea: Verified East Pacific Ocean On April 9 2018, Force Thirteen released its projection for the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season, also suggesting near average activity but with greater uncertainty than that of the Atlantic forecast. With the emergence of more favourable conditions later in the season, storm numbers were propelled well beyond the predictions, yielding final totals of 23, 13 and 12, not including an unclassified storm in the Central Pacific that was deemed tropical according to Force Thirteen’s analysis. Key Message Verification Enhanced risk of hurricane landfall along the Mexican coast from western Oaxaca to Sinaloa: Verified Risk of HU landfall in Baja California Sur: Not verified Enhanced activity entering the Central Pacific at low latitude: Verified Higher than normal chance of stronger cyclones in the Central Pacific: Verified Threat to Hawaii slightly below average: Not verified 4 1.2. Pre-Season Predictions West Pacific Ocean On April 10 2018, Force Thirteen released its projection for the Pacific typhoon season, suggesting near average activity. The prevailing conditions and sea surface temperatures allowed for a lot more energy producing stronger storms than expected, with a large amount of weaker storms, accompanied by a large amount of intense storms leaving little in between. As a result, the final numbers for the year were lower than the projections for typhoons and major typhoons. The totals were 31, 13, and 9, according to Force Thirteen’s intensity estimates. Key Message Verification 50% chance of a Category 4+ landfall in the Philippine islands: Verified 80% chance of typhoon landfall in Hainan and Guangdong, China: Verified 85% chance of typhoon conditions in northern Taiwan and southern Japan: Verified Lower than usual typhoon risk in China north of Wenzhou, and in Korea: Not verified 80% chance of super typhoons east of 140 degrees east: Verified 40% chance of Central Pacific hurricanes entering basin: Not Verified 5 120 100 80 Cat 5 Cat 4 60 Cat 3 Cat 2 Cat 1 Annual stormAnnual totals worldwide TS 40trend overall. by the 1970s.mid Since then,numbers have stabilised and have been generally ona slight downward 1960s oftenbut had coverage, gaps their in geostationary until satellites coveredthe Atlantic and Pacific possibly due tothe beginning of air patrols after thewar. Polar orbiting satellites started operating the in improved. Aircraft first intercepted cyclones 1940s, the in coinciding with aslight increase numbers, in gradually increased as shipping lanes handled traffic more storm in prone areas communications and were In 1884, only shipand land reports existed in resulting thelower numbers reported. These numbers chart.The historical numbers are different slightly compared tolast yeardue toongoing reanalysis. ever, since thedata readily is available, the 1884 91.4. Due tolack of satellite imagery, years priortothe are 1960s nottypically included data, the in how- With 106 storms, total 2018 ends a with near 20 0 1960 1961 1963 1964 1965 1968 1969 1972 1973 1974 1976 1977 1978 1980 1981 1982 1985 1986 1989 1990 1991 1993 1994 1995 1998 1999 2002 2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 2012 2015 2016 1962 1966 1967 1970 1971 1975 1979 1983 1984 1987 1988 1992 1996 1997 2000 2001 2005 2009 2013 2014 2017 2018 Year 120 Perspective Historical 1.3. 100 80 Cat 5 - record total.high The 1960 Cat 4 - 60 2018 chart has also been included the 1960 below 6 Cat 3 40 Cat 2 Cat 1 Annual stormAnnual totals worldwide 20 TS 0 - 2018 average nowstands at 1884 1894 1949 1959 1969 1889 1899 1904 1909 1914 1919 1924 1929 1934 1939 1944 1954 1964 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 Year Average - 2018 106 The following chart shows the trend with number of tropical depressions, storms, hurricanes, majors, and Category 5 storms.