Objective Identification of Annular Hurricanes
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P1.24 a Typhoon Loss Estimation Model for China
P1.24 A TYPHOON LOSS ESTIMATION MODEL FOR CHINA Peter J. Sousounis*, H. He, M. L. Healy, V. K. Jain, G. Ljung, Y. Qu, and B. Shen-Tu AIR Worldwide Corporation, Boston, MA 1. INTRODUCTION the two. Because of its wind intensity (135 mph maximum sustained winds), it has been Nowhere 1 else in the world do tropical compared to Hurricane Katrina 2005. But Saomai cyclones (TCs) develop more frequently than in was short lived, and although it made landfall as the Northwest Pacific Basin. Nearly thirty TCs are a strong Category 4 storm and generated heavy spawned each year, 20 of which reach hurricane precipitation, it weakened quickly. Still, economic or typhoon status (cf. Fig. 1). Five of these reach losses were ~12 B RMB (~1.5 B USD). In super typhoon status, with windspeeds over 130 contrast, Bilis, which made landfall a month kts. In contrast, the North Atlantic typically earlier just south of where Saomai hit, was generates only ten TCs, seven of which reach actually only tropical storm strength at landfall hurricane status. with max sustained winds of 70 mph. Bilis weakened further still upon landfall but turned Additionally, there is no other country in the southwest and traveled slowly over a period of world where TCs strike with more frequency than five days across Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi in China. Nearly ten landfalling TCs occur in a and Yunnan Provinces. It generated copious typical year, with one to two additional by-passing amounts of precipitation, with large areas storms coming close enough to the coast to receiving more than 300 mm. -
Tropical Cyclogenesis Associated with Rossby Wave Energy Dispersion of a Preexisting Typhoon
VOLUME 63 JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES MAY 2006 Tropical Cyclogenesis Associated with Rossby Wave Energy Dispersion of a Preexisting Typhoon. Part I: Satellite Data Analyses* TIM LI AND BING FU Department of Meteorology, and International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii (Manuscript submitted 20 September 2004, in final form 7 June 2005) ABSTRACT The structure and evolution characteristics of Rossby wave trains induced by tropical cyclone (TC) energy dispersion are revealed based on the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) data. Among 34 cyclogenesis cases analyzed in the western North Pacific during 2000–01 typhoon seasons, six cases are associated with the Rossby wave energy dispersion of a preexisting TC. The wave trains are oriented in a northwest–southeast direction, with alternating cyclonic and anticyclonic vorticity circulation. A typical wavelength of the wave train is about 2500 km. The TC genesis is observed in the cyclonic circulation region of the wave train, possibly through a scale contraction process. The satellite data analyses reveal that not all TCs have a Rossby wave train in their wakes. The occur- rence of the Rossby wave train depends to a certain extent on the TC intensity and the background flow. Whether or not a Rossby wave train can finally lead to cyclogenesis depends on large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic conditions related to both the change of the seasonal mean state and the phase of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation. Stronger low-level convergence and cyclonic vorticity, weaker vertical shear, and greater midtropospheric moisture are among the favorable large-scale conditions. -
Big Early Voting Turnout
SPORTS POW WOW FRIDAY FOOTBALL WACCAMAW SIOUAN MATCHES YIELD WINS FOR POW WOW WAS SCHS, ECHS SATURDAY uu SPORTS 3B uu POW WOW 10A The News Reporter Published since 1890 every Monday and Thursday for the County of Columbus and her people. WWW.NRCOLUMBUS.COM Monday, November 7, 2016 75 CENTS Big early voting turnout By Allen Turner [email protected] Early voting ended Saturday af- ter two weeks of heavy turnout as other voters prepared to go to the polls on the official Election Day Tuesday. Polls will open at 6:30 a.m. on Tuesday at all 26 Columbus County voting precincts and remain open until 7:30 p.m. One voting location, the Fair Bluff precinct, has been moved from its usual location of Fair Bluff Fire and Rescue to Johnny’s Sandwich Shop at 899 Main St., due to damage from Hurricane Matthew at the fire department. Complete numbers are not available on how many Columbus Countians cast early ballots be- uu VOTING 6A Photo by Grant Merritt Festival Queen Rachel McPherson and her six Belles on their float were escorted by cadets from Camden Military Academy. Bridge NCFS fills gaps during response, recovery could be By Jefferson Weaver lands, Malcolm said the agency’s mis- [email protected] sion includes emergency response. complete “It was a natural outgrowth of fire- Among the red, blue, yellow and fighting,” he explained. “It really isn’t white vehicles helping Columbus that unusual for Forest Service crews County residents during Hurricane to be deployed in a natural disaster.” in spring Matthew, there were a lot of green Malcolm said NCFS crews have trucks as well. -
Influence of Sea Salt Aerosols on the Development of Mediterranean
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13353–13368, 2021 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13353-2021 © Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. Influence of sea salt aerosols on the development of Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones Enrique Pravia-Sarabia1, Juan José Gómez-Navarro1, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero1,2, and Juan Pedro Montávez1 1Physics of the Earth, Regional Campus of International Excellence (CEIR) “Campus Mare Nostrum”, University of Murcia, 30100 Murcia, Spain 2Biomedical Research Institute of Murcia (IMIB-Arrixaca), 30120 Murcia, Spain Correspondence: Juan Pedro Montávez ([email protected]) Received: 23 December 2020 – Discussion started: 11 February 2021 Revised: 26 July 2021 – Accepted: 16 August 2021 – Published: 9 September 2021 Abstract. Medicanes are mesoscale tropical-like cyclones 1 Introduction that develop in the Mediterranean basin and represent a great hazard for the coastal population. The skill to accurately simulate them is of utmost importance to prevent econom- Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones, also known as medi- ical and personal damage. Medicanes are fueled by the la- canes (from mediterranean hurricanes), are mesoscale per- tent heat released in the condensation process associated turbations that exhibit tropical characteristics, such as an with convective activity, which is regulated by the pres- eye-like feature and warm core. These storms are character- ence and activation of cloud condensation nuclei, mainly ized by high wind speeds and vertically aligned geopoten- originating from sea salt aerosols (SSAs) for marine envi- tial height perturbations along different pressure levels. Just ronments. Henceforth, the purpose of this contribution is like regular tropical cyclones, medicanes represent a hazard twofold: assessing the effects of an interactive calculation of for the population of coastal areas. -
ANNUAL SUMMARIES Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season of 2000
3004 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 129 ANNUAL SUMMARIES Eastern North Paci®c Hurricane Season of 2000 MILES B. LAWRENCE,LIXION A. AVILA,JACK L. BEVEN,JAMES L. FRANKLIN,RICHARD J. PASCH, AND STACY R. STEWART National Hurricane Center, Tropical Prediction Center, NCEP, NOAA/NWS, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 16 May 2001, in ®nal form 29 June 2001) ABSTRACT There were 11 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 tropical depressions during the 2000 eastern North Paci®c hurricane season. Two tropical storms made landfall in Mexico. 1. Introduction teorological analyses. After each cyclone has ended, a There were 11 tropical storms and 6 hurricanes in the ``best track'' is determined using all available data. The eastern Paci®c basin in the year 2000, totaling 17 named best track is a table of 6-hourly estimates of the cy- tropical cyclones. This is two more than the 1966±99 clone's center position, maximum 1-min wind speed (10 m above the surface), and minimum sea level pressure.2 average of 15 named tropical cyclones.1 In contrast, the total of six hurricanes is three less than the long-term With the exception of a few aerial reconnaissance average of nine. There were also two tropical depres- ¯ights, all of this season's best track data were derived sions that did not reach tropical storm strength. The from satellite data and occasional land and ship reports. named tropical cyclones are listed in Table 1, along with The method for estimating the maximum 1-min wind their dates, maximum 1-min surface wind speed, min- speed from satellite imagery is the Dvorak technique imum sea level pressure, and directly attributable deaths. -
Global Modeling with NASA Supercomputing Technology: When Sandy Meets Lorenz Bo-Wen Shen, Ph
Global Modeling with NASA Supercomputing Technology: When Sandy Meets Lorenz Bo-Wen Shen, Ph. D. [email protected] Department of Mathematics and Statistics Center for Climate and Sustainability Studies Computational Science Research Center San Diego State University GMCS 214 SDiSttUiitSan Diego State University 21 November 2014 When Sandy Meets Lorenz 1 San Diego State Univ. Nov 21, 2014 Outline 1. ItIntrod uc tion 2. Navier-Stokes Equations, High-resolution Global Model, and Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF) 3. Supercomputing and Visualization Technology 4. Simulations of Hurricanes Sandy and Others 5. Nonlinear Processes in Modified Lorenz Models 6. SdFtTkSummary and Future Tasks When Sandy Meets Lorenz 3 San Diego State Univ. Nov 21, 2014 Sandy: Tropical Cyclones with Multiscale Interactions Hurricane France Hurricane Howard Tropical Storm Phoebe Super typhoon Sonda When Sandy Meets Lorenz 4 San Diego State Univ. Nov 21, 2014 Lorenz: Chaos Theory with Butterfly Effect • The butterfly effect of first kind: sensitive dependence on initial conditions. • The butterfly effect of second kind: a metaphor for indicating that small perturbations can alter large-scale structure. • Lorenz’s studies suggested finite predictability and nonlinearity as the source of chaos. The studies by Lorenz (1963, 1972) laid the foundation for chaos theory, which was viewed as the third scientific revolution of the 20th century after relativity and quantum mechanics (e.g. Gleick, 1987; Anthes 2011). When Sandy Meets Lorenz 5 San Diego State Univ. Nov 21, 2014 When Sandy Meets Lorenz Sandy Lorenz Hurricane Dynamics Chaos Dynamics Earth Science Mathematics Complex Model Theoretical Model Real-world Model Idealized Model PDE ODE Complexities in Modeling Complexities in Mathematics Multiscale Processes Butterfly Effect Sandy (2012) Lorenz (1963) Can Sandy's ego be retained? (San Diego) When Sandy Meets Lorenz 6 San Diego State Univ. -
Analysis on Typhoon Longwang Intensity Changes Over the Ocean Via Satellite Data
Journal of MarineC.-C. Science Liu etand al .:Technology, Analysis on Vol. Typhoon 17, No. Longwang 1, pp. 23-28 Intensity (2009) Changes Over the Ocean via Satellite Data 23 ANALYSIS ON TYPHOON LONGWANG INTENSITY CHANGES OVER THE OCEAN VIA SATELLITE DATA Chung-Chih Liu*, Tian-Yow Shyu**, Chun-Chieh Chao***, and Yu-Feng Lin*** Key words: typhoon, anticyclonic divergence, radiate. I. INTRODUCTION Typhoons are one of nature’s most destructive weather sys- ABSTRACT tems. Most of them form and develop over the ocean. However, traditional observations are often not sufficient, due to the dif- The changes in the typhoon intensity are a very important ficulty and resources required for the data collection. Thus, process. In this study, we used satellite data to analyze the cloud satellite remote sensing data serves as a much better choice in structure of Typhoon Longwang. Results show that the changes terms of its spatial and temporal resolutions. The geostationary in the high level cirrus pattern seemed to have a connection to meteorological satellite has become an available tool for de- the typhoon intensity. During the time period from 0600UTC to termining the typhoon location, structure and intensity. When 1200UTC 30 September 2005, the high level cirrus clouds of geostationary satellite images were available, the identification Typhoon Longwang radiated from the inner core region. The and tracking of tropical cyclones turned into a trivial task. cloud area that Typhoon Longwang covered grew larger, and the However, many problems still exist in terms of weaker tropical pattern changed from a asymmetric to symmetric distribution cyclones. The scientists at NOAA/NESDIS led by Vern Dvorak during 0000UTC to 1200UTC 30 September 2005. -
RMS Philippines Typhoon and Inland Flood Model Captures Risk from Typhoon Wind and Flooding, Coastal Storm Surge, and Seasonal Precipitation-Driven Flooding
RMS Philippines Typhoon and Inland Flood Model Captures Risk From Typhoon Wind and Flooding, Coastal Storm Surge, and Seasonal Precipitation-Driven Flooding Overview KEY FEATURES Situated on the Pacific Ring of Fire and in the western North Pacific Typhoon AND BENEFITS Basin, the Philippines is one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world. Approximately 20 tropical cyclones enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility each year, with around eight making landfall. The transition of the Philippine economy Captures the risk from typhoon • from agriculture to services and manufacturing has increased the value of exposure wind and flooding plus seasonal monsoon-driven flooding at risk to typhoons and flooding. • Precipitation-driven inland flood The RMS® Philippines Typhoon and Inland Flood Model enables users to model the model and fully hydrodynamic typhoon-related risks of wind, typhoon-driven flood, and storm surge, in addition to surge model for key coastal areas seasonal and monsoon flood events. The model expands the RMS suite of climate Hazard modeled at high • modeling solutions to the Philippines. geographical resolution to accurately capture the variations in risk Complete Wind and Flood Risk Solution • Stochastic event set contains Tropical cyclones bring the associated perils of strong wind, heavy precipitation, and thousands of tropical cyclone storm surge leading to flooding. These three typhoon-related perils are captured tracks to capture the full spectrum by a set of thousands of stochastic tropical cyclone tracks representing the full of landfalling and bypassing spectrum of potential landfalling and bypassing events to affect the Philippines. storms In addition, the southwest Habagat monsoon from May to October, and northeast • Model includes almost 1,000 Amihan monsoon from November to April can bring heavy rainfall and flooding. -
Cyclones, Hurricanes, Typhoons and Tornadoes - A.B
NATURAL DISASTERS – Vol.II - Cyclones, Hurricanes, Typhoons and Tornadoes - A.B. Shmakin CYCLONES, HURRICANES, TYPHOONS AND TORNADOES A.B. Shmakin Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia Keywords: atmospheric circulation, atmospheric fronts, extratropical and tropical cyclones, natural disasters, tornadoes, vortex flows. Contents 1. Atmospheric whirls of different scales and origin 1.1. Cyclones: large-scale whirls 1.2. Tornadoes: small, but terrifying 2. What are they like? 2.1. How big, how strong? 2.2. How they behave? 2.3. Disasters caused by the whirls 2.4. Forecasts of atmospheric circulation systems 3. What should we expect? Glossary Bibliography Summary The article presents a general view on atmospheric whirls of different scales: tropical and extratropical cyclones (the former group includes also hurricanes and typhoons) and tornadoes. Their main features, both qualitative and quantitative, are described. The regions visited by thesekinds of atmospheric vortices, and the seasons of their activity are presented. The main physical mechanisms governing the whirls are briefly described. Extreme meteorological observations in the circulation systems (such as strongest wind speed, lowest air pressure, heaviest rainfalls and snowfalls, highest clouds and oceanic waves) are described. The role of circulation systems in the weather variations both in tropical and extratropical zones is analyzed. Record damage brought by the atmospheric whirls is described too, along with their biggest death tolls. A short historical reviewUNESCO of studies of the circulation – systems EOLSS and their forecasting is presented. Contemporary and possible future trends in the frequency of atmospheric calamities and possible future damage, taking into account both natural and anthropogenic factors, are given. -
Port of Manzanillo: Climate Risk Management
FINAL REPORT Port of Manzanillo: Climate Risk Management September 2015 Mejorando vidas Copyright © 2015 Inter-American Development Bank. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons IGO 3.0 Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives (CC-IGO BY-NC- ND 3.0 IGO) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/ by-nc-nd/3.0/igo/legalcode) and may be reproduced with attribution to the IDB and for any non-commercial purpose. No derivative work is allowed. Any dispute related to the use of the works of the IDB that cannot be settled amicably shall be submitted to arbitration pursuant to the UNCITRAL rules. The use of the IDB’s name for any purpose other than for attribution, and the use of IDB’s logo shall be subject to a separate written license agreement between the IDB and the user and is not authorized as part of this CC-IGO license. Note that link provided above includes additional terms and conditions of the license. The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Inter- American Development Bank, its Board of Directors, or the countries they represent. 2 FINAL REPORT Port of Manzanillo: Climate Risk Management September 2015 Manzanillo, Mexico Mejorando vidas © 2015, Inter-American Development Bank State of Colima: Instituto para el Medio Ambiente y Desarrollo Sustentable del Estado de Colima (IMADES), Centro Universitario de Gestión Ambiental (CEUGEA, AUTHORED BY Universidad de Colima), Secretaría de Desarrollo Urbano del Estado de Colima. Richenda Connell and Laura Canevari, Acclimatise Group Limited; Chris Coleby, Stewart Wright, John N. -
Tropical Cyclone Genesis Tropical Cyclone Genesis
, . NSF GRANT , G,A - 325 8 9 X 3 TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS by William M. Gray Preparation of this report has been financially supported by National Science Foundation Grant GA-32589X3 Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Fort Collins, Colorado March, 1975 Atmospheric Science Paper No. 234 ABSTRACT A new global observational and theoretical study of tropical cyclone genesis is made. This is an extension of the author's previous study (Gray, 1968) on this subject. Cyclone initial genesis locations have been stratified by season for the 20-year period of 1952-1971. Wind, temperature and moisture information are averaged by season and by 5-degree latitude-longitude Marsden squares. It is observationally shown and physical reasons are given why seasonal cyclone genesis fre- quency is related to the product of the seasonally averaged parameters of: 1) low level relative vorticity, 2) Coriolis parameter, 3) inverse of the vertical shear of the horizontal wind from lower to upper tropo- sphere, 4) ocean's thermal energy to 60 meters' depth, 5) moist stability from the surface to 500 mb, and 6) middle troposphere relative humidity. A seasonal forecast potential of cyclone genesis frequency is derived. This forecast potential very well specifies the location and frequency of global cyclone genesis. A general theory on cyclone frequency is advanced. i LIBRARIES cQtOItADO ~T ATE UN!V!'!<SITY fort (:011 ins, Coioredo 80~23 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 1. INTRODUCTION • • • 1 Numerical Modeling • 3 Definitions. 5 Conclusion • • 7 2. CYCLONE ORIGIN STATISTICS. 9 3. PHYSICAL REQUIREMENTS OF CYCLONE GENESIS • ~ • • 17 Enthalpy Increase through Release of Latent Heat 17 Cloud Cluster Characteristics. -
Using the Superensemble Method to Improve Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Mark Rickman Jordan II
Florida State University Libraries Electronic Theses, Treatises and Dissertations The Graduate School 2005 Using the Superensemble Method to Improve Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Mark Rickman Jordan II Follow this and additional works at the FSU Digital Library. For more information, please contact [email protected] THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY COLLEGE OF ARTS AND SCIENCES USING THE SUPERENSEMBLE METHOD TO IMPROVE EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTING By MARK RICKMAN JORDAN II A Thesis submitted to the Department of Meteorology in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science Degree Awarded: Fall Semester, 2005 The members of the Committee approve the Thesis of Mark Jordan defended on 1 September 2005. _________________________________ T.N. Krishnamurti Professor Directing Thesis _________________________________ Carol Anne Clayson Committee Member _________________________________ Peter S. Ray Committee Member The Office of Graduate Studies has verified and approved the above named committee members. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would first like to thank my major professor, Dr. T.N. Krishnamurti, for all of his help through this process and for his unending encouragement and patience. Furthermore, I would like to thank Dr. Carol Anne Clayson and Dr. Peter Ray for their advice and assistance throughout this process. Thank you Brian Mackey and Dr. Vijay Tallapragada for all of your help and wonderful suggestions during this project. Others who deserve commendation for their assistance during the past year include Mrinal Biswas, Arindam Chakraborty, Akhilesh Mishra, Lydia Stefanova, Donald van Dyke, and Lawrence Pologne. Thank you Bill Walsh for all of your support, advice, and encouragement over the years, and thank you Mike and Beth Rice for your love and support during my entire educational career.