Global Modeling with NASA Supercomputing Technology: When Sandy Meets Lorenz Bo-Wen Shen, Ph
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
Load more
Recommended publications
-
Using the Superensemble Method to Improve Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Mark Rickman Jordan II
Florida State University Libraries Electronic Theses, Treatises and Dissertations The Graduate School 2005 Using the Superensemble Method to Improve Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Mark Rickman Jordan II Follow this and additional works at the FSU Digital Library. For more information, please contact [email protected] THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY COLLEGE OF ARTS AND SCIENCES USING THE SUPERENSEMBLE METHOD TO IMPROVE EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTING By MARK RICKMAN JORDAN II A Thesis submitted to the Department of Meteorology in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science Degree Awarded: Fall Semester, 2005 The members of the Committee approve the Thesis of Mark Jordan defended on 1 September 2005. _________________________________ T.N. Krishnamurti Professor Directing Thesis _________________________________ Carol Anne Clayson Committee Member _________________________________ Peter S. Ray Committee Member The Office of Graduate Studies has verified and approved the above named committee members. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would first like to thank my major professor, Dr. T.N. Krishnamurti, for all of his help through this process and for his unending encouragement and patience. Furthermore, I would like to thank Dr. Carol Anne Clayson and Dr. Peter Ray for their advice and assistance throughout this process. Thank you Brian Mackey and Dr. Vijay Tallapragada for all of your help and wonderful suggestions during this project. Others who deserve commendation for their assistance during the past year include Mrinal Biswas, Arindam Chakraborty, Akhilesh Mishra, Lydia Stefanova, Donald van Dyke, and Lawrence Pologne. Thank you Bill Walsh for all of your support, advice, and encouragement over the years, and thank you Mike and Beth Rice for your love and support during my entire educational career. -
Objective Identification of Annular Hurricanes
FEBRUARY 2008 KNAFFETAL. 17 Objective Identification of Annular Hurricanes JOHN A. KNAFF NOAA/NESDIS/Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Fort Collins, Colorado THOMAS A. CRAM Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado ANDREA B. SCHUMACHER Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado JAMES P. KOSSIN Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, University of Wisconsin—Madison, Madison, Wisconsin MARK DEMARIA NOAA/NESDIS/Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Fort Collins, Colorado (Manuscript received 26 March 2006, in final form 21 June 2007) ABSTRACT Annular hurricanes are a subset of intense tropical cyclones that have been shown in previous work to be significantly stronger, to maintain their peak intensities longer, and to weaken more slowly than average tropical cyclones. Because of these characteristics, they represent a significant forecasting challenge. This paper updates the list of annular hurricanes to encompass the years 1995–2006 in both the North Atlantic and eastern–central North Pacific tropical cyclone basins. Because annular hurricanes have a unique ap- pearance in infrared satellite imagery, and form in a specific set of environmental conditions, an objective real-time method of identifying these hurricanes is developed. However, since the occurrence of annular hurricanes is rare (ϳ4% of all hurricanes), a special algorithm to detect annular hurricanes is developed that employs two steps to identify the candidates: 1) prescreening the data and 2) applying a linear discriminant analysis. This algorithm is trained using a dependent dataset (1995–2003) that includes 11 annular hurri- canes. The resulting algorithm is then independently tested using datasets from the years 2004–06, which contained an additional three annular hurricanes. -
ANNUAL SUMMARY Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season of 2004
1026 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 134 ANNUAL SUMMARY Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season of 2004 LIXION A. AVILA,RICHARD J. PASCH,JOHN L. BEVEN II, JAMES L. FRANKLIN,MILES B. LAWRENCE, AND STACY R. STEWART Tropical Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center, NOAA/NWS, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 5 April 2005, in final form 2 August 2005) ABSTRACT The 2004 eastern North Pacific hurricane season is reviewed. It was a below-average season in terms of number of systems and landfalls. There were 12 named tropical cyclones, of which 8 became hurricanes. None of the tropical storms or hurricanes made landfall, and there were no reports of deaths or damage. A description of each cyclone is provided, and track and intensity forecasts for the season are evaluated. 1. Overview waves in the eastern North Pacific has been docu- mented in numerous occasions, for example, Avila et Two notable aspects of the 2004 season in the eastern al. (2003). Most of the tropical cyclones in 2004 origi- North Pacific hurricane basin (from 140°W eastward nated from tropical waves that moved westward from and from the equator northward) were that none of the Africa across the Atlantic basin before entering the tropical storms or hurricanes made landfall and that eastern North Pacific. These waves became convec- there were no reports of deaths or damage attributed to tively active and spawned tropical cyclones in the wa- tropical cyclones. In general, three or four named tropi- ters to the south and southwest of Mexico. cal cyclones strike the coast of Mexico each year. Tropi- Most of the tropical cyclones this season were steered cal cyclone activity was below average in the basin com- westward and west-northwestward away from the coast pared with the mean totals for the 1966–2003 period of of Mexico, around a 500-mb ridge extending from the 15 named storms and 8 hurricanes. -
ANNUAL SUMMARY Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season of 2004
1026 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 134 ANNUAL SUMMARY Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season of 2004 LIXION A. AVILA,RICHARD J. PASCH,JOHN L. BEVEN II, JAMES L. FRANKLIN,MILES B. LAWRENCE, AND STACY R. STEWART Tropical Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center, NOAA/NWS, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 5 April 2005, in final form 2 August 2005) ABSTRACT The 2004 eastern North Pacific hurricane season is reviewed. It was a below-average season in terms of number of systems and landfalls. There were 12 named tropical cyclones, of which 8 became hurricanes. None of the tropical storms or hurricanes made landfall, and there were no reports of deaths or damage. A description of each cyclone is provided, and track and intensity forecasts for the season are evaluated. 1. Overview waves in the eastern North Pacific has been docu- mented in numerous occasions, for example, Avila et Two notable aspects of the 2004 season in the eastern al. (2003). Most of the tropical cyclones in 2004 origi- North Pacific hurricane basin (from 140°W eastward nated from tropical waves that moved westward from and from the equator northward) were that none of the Africa across the Atlantic basin before entering the tropical storms or hurricanes made landfall and that eastern North Pacific. These waves became convec- there were no reports of deaths or damage attributed to tively active and spawned tropical cyclones in the wa- tropical cyclones. In general, three or four named tropi- ters to the south and southwest of Mexico. cal cyclones strike the coast of Mexico each year. Tropi- Most of the tropical cyclones this season were steered cal cyclone activity was below average in the basin com- westward and west-northwestward away from the coast pared with the mean totals for the 1966–2003 period of of Mexico, around a 500-mb ridge extending from the 15 named storms and 8 hurricanes. -
Objective Identification of Annular Hurricanes
FEBRUARY 2008 KNAFFETAL. 17 Objective Identification of Annular Hurricanes JOHN A. KNAFF NOAA/NESDIS/Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Fort Collins, Colorado THOMAS A. CRAM Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado ANDREA B. SCHUMACHER Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado JAMES P. KOSSIN Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, University of Wisconsin—Madison, Madison, Wisconsin MARK DEMARIA NOAA/NESDIS/Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Fort Collins, Colorado (Manuscript received 26 March 2006, in final form 21 June 2007) ABSTRACT Annular hurricanes are a subset of intense tropical cyclones that have been shown in previous work to be significantly stronger, to maintain their peak intensities longer, and to weaken more slowly than average tropical cyclones. Because of these characteristics, they represent a significant forecasting challenge. This paper updates the list of annular hurricanes to encompass the years 1995–2006 in both the North Atlantic and eastern–central North Pacific tropical cyclone basins. Because annular hurricanes have a unique ap- pearance in infrared satellite imagery, and form in a specific set of environmental conditions, an objective real-time method of identifying these hurricanes is developed. However, since the occurrence of annular hurricanes is rare (ϳ4% of all hurricanes), a special algorithm to detect annular hurricanes is developed that employs two steps to identify the candidates: 1) prescreening the data and 2) applying a linear discriminant analysis. This algorithm is trained using a dependent dataset (1995–2003) that includes 11 annular hurri- canes. The resulting algorithm is then independently tested using datasets from the years 2004–06, which contained an additional three annular hurricanes. -
Influence of Tropical Cyclones on Humidity Patterns Over Southern Baja California, Mexico
1208 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 135 Influence of Tropical Cyclones on Humidity Patterns over Southern Baja California, Mexico LUIS M. FARFÁN Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada B.C. (CICESE), La Paz, Baja California Sur, México IRA FOGEL Centro de Investigaciones Biológicas del Noroeste (CIBNOR), La Paz, Baja California Sur, México (Manuscript received 6 February 2006, in final form 10 July 2006) ABSTRACT The influence of tropical cyclone circulations in the distribution of humidity and convection over north- western Mexico is investigated by analyzing circulations that developed in the eastern Pacific Ocean from 1 July to 21 September 2004. Documented cases having some impact over the Baja California Peninsula include Tropical Storm Blas (13–15 July), Hurricane Frank (23–25 August), Hurricane Howard (2–6 Sep- tember), and Hurricane Javier (15–20 September). Datasets are derived from geostationary satellite imag- ery, upper-air and surface station observations, as well as an analysis from an operational model. Emphasis is given to circulations that moved within 800 km of the southern part of the peninsula. The distribution of precipitable water is used to identify distinct peaks during the approach of these circulations and deep convection that occurred for periods of several days over the southern peninsula and Gulf of California. Hurricane Howard is associated with a significant amount of precipitation, while Hurricane Javier made landfall across the central peninsula with a limited impact on the population in the area. An examination of the large-scale environment suggests that advection of humid air from the equatorial Pacific is an important element in sustaining tropical cyclones and convection off the coast of western Mexico. -
Storm Data and Unusual Weather Phenomena
SEPTEMBER 2004 VOLUME 46 NUMBER 9 SSTORMTORM DDATAATA AND UNUSUAL WEATHER PHENOMENA WITH LATE REPORTS AND CORRECTIONS NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION noaa NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL SATELLITE, DATA AND INFORMATION SERVICE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER, ASHEVILLE, NC Cover: A 125-foot television tower, located in eastern Buncombe County, NC at an elevation of 4370 feet, falls over after guy-wires break. Strong winds with gusts over 95mph, from the remnants of Hurricane Ivan on September 16, 2004, are to blame. (Photo courtesy: Grant Goodge, NCDC Retired, Asheville, NC) TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Outstanding Storm of the Month .......................…..…………….….........……..…………..…. 4 Storm Data and Unusual Weather Phenomena .......…….…....………..……...........…............ 7 Additions/Corrections ......................................................................................................................... 242 Reference Notes ...................................................................................................................................... 254 STORM DATA (ISSN 0039-1972) National Climatic Data Center Editor: William Angel Assistant Editors: Stuart Hinson and Rhonda Herndon STORM DATA is prepared, and distributed by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service (NESDIS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The Storm Data and Unusual Weather Phenomena narratives and Hurricane/Tropical Storm summaries are prepared by the National -
The Weather Guide
The Weather Guide A Weather Information Companion for the forecast area of the National Weather Service in San Diego 6th Edition 2012 National Weather Service, San Diego Prepared by Miguel Miller, Forecaster Introduction This weather guide is designed primarily for those who routinely use National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts and products. An electronic copy can be found on our web page at: www.wrh.noaa.gov/sgx/document/The_Weather_Guide.pdf. The purpose of the Weather Guide is to: Provide answers to common questions Describe the organization, the people, and functions of the NWS - San Diego Explain NWS products Describe specific challenges local NWS forecasters face in producing accurate forecasts Create a better general understanding of the particular weather and climate of our region Provide numerous resources for additional information The desired effect of this guide is to help the general public and journalism community gain a greater understanding of our local weather and the functions of the National Weather Service. We hope to improve relationships among members of the local media, emergency management, and other agencies with responsibility to the public. With a spirit of greater cooperation, we can together provide better services and understanding to our residents and visitors. The National Weather Service in San Diego invites anyone with any interest to our office for a free and informal tour. We especially encourage members of the weather community or meteorology students to take advantage of this nearby resource and become familiar with the science, our work, and the local weather. We have various training and educational resources for those pursuing a career in meteorology or for those seeking a greater understanding of the science and its local applications. -
Weather History of Southern California
A History of Significant Weather Events in Southern California Organized by Weather Type Updated May 2017 The following weather events occurred in or near the forecast area of the National Weather Service in San Diego, which includes Orange and San Diego Counties, southwestern San Bernardino County, and western Riverside County. Some events from Los Angeles and surrounding areas are included. Events were included based on infrequency, severity, and impact. Note: This listing is not comprehensive. Table of Contents Heavy Rain: Flooding and Flash Flooding, Mud Slides, Debris Flows, Landslides………...3 Heavy Snow, Rare Snow at Low Elevations…………………………………………………..54 Severe Thunderstorms: Large Hail, Strong Thunderstorm Winds, and Killer Lightning...63 (See flash flooding in heavy rain section) Tornadoes, Funnel Clouds, Waterspouts, and Damaging Dust Devils……………………...75 Strong winds…………………………………………………………………………………….90 (For thunderstorm related winds, see severe thunderstorms) Extreme Heat……………………………………………………………………………………103 Extreme Cold……………………………………………………………………………………111 High Surf, Stormy Seas, Tsunamis, Coastal Flooding and Erosion…………………………114 Miscellaneous: Dense fog, barometric pressure, dry spells, etc……………………………...119 Heavy Rain: Flooding and Flash Flooding, Mud Slides, Debris Flows, Landslides Date(s) Weather Adverse Impacts 1770, 1772, Various reports from missions 1780, 1810, indicate significant flooding along 1815, 1821, the Los Angeles, Santa Ana and 1822, 1825, San Diego Rivers, often changing 1839, 1840, the entire courses. 1841,1842 2.1850 “Moderate floods occurring in the Santa Ana River Basin.” 2.1852 “Moderate flood resulted from unprecedented rain in the mountains. A severe flood year in Southern California”. 10.2.1858 Category 1 hurricane hits San Diego, Extensive wind damage to property the only actual hurricane on record to (F2). -
ANNUAL SUMMARY Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season of 1998
2990 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 128 ANNUAL SUMMARY Eastern North Paci®c Hurricane Season of 1998 LIXION A. AVILA AND JOHN L. GUINEY National Hurricane Center, Tropical Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 4 June 1999, in ®nal form 10 December 1999) ABSTRACT The 1998 eastern North Paci®c hurricane season is reviewed. There were 15 tropical cyclones, consisting of nine hurricanes, four tropical storms, and two tropical depressions. During 1998, two tropical cyclones made landfall; Hurricane Isis made two landfalls in Mexico while Tropical Depression Javier dissipated near Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. 1. Introduction torically, the median day for formation of the ®rst east- ern North Paci®c tropical cyclone is 31 May. The most prominent characteristic of the 1998 eastern Most of the tropical storms and hurricanes remained North Paci®c hurricane season was the below-normal away from land on climatologically favored tracks toward number of landfalling tropical cyclones. On average, the west-northwest. Prevailing steering resulted from a three or four tropical cyclones strike the coast of Mexico persistent 50-mb anticyclone located over the western each year but only two tropical cyclones made landfall United States. This feature persisted throughout most of during 1998. Hurricane Isis made two landfalls in Mex- the summer. A few tropical cyclones threatened Baja Cal- ico, it passed over southern Baja California and then ifornia during short periods when the strong anticyclone ®nally passed onshore near Los Mochis, where it weakened. In most of these cases, however, the anticy- claimed 14 lives. Weakening Tropical Depression Javier clone reestablished itself and steered the storms to the dissipated over land near Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, west-northwest before they reached Baja California. -
Annular Hurricanes
204 WEATHER AND FORECASTING VOLUME 18 Annular Hurricanes JOHN A. KNAFF AND JAMES P. K OSSIN Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado MARK DEMARIA NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, Colorado (Manuscript received 15 January 2002, in ®nal form 15 October 2002) ABSTRACT This study introduces and examines a symmetric category of tropical cyclone, which the authors call annular hurricanes. The structural characteristics and formation of this type of hurricane are examined and documented using satellite and aircraft reconnaissance data. The formation is shown to be systematic, resulting from what appears to be asymmetric mixing of eye and eyewall components of the storms involving either one or two possible mesovortices. Flight-level thermodynamic data support this contention, displaying uniform values of equivalent potential temperature in the eye, while the ¯ight-level wind observations within annular hurricanes show evidence that mixing inside the radius of maximum wind likely continues. Intensity tendencies of annular hurricanes indicate that these storms maintain their intensities longer than the average hurricane, resulting in larger-than-average intensity forecast errors and thus a signi®cant intensity forecasting challenge. In addition, these storms are found to exist in a speci®c set of environmental conditions, which are only found 3% and 0.8% of the time in the east Paci®c and Atlantic tropical cyclone basins during 1989±99, respectively. With forecasting issues in mind, two methods of objectively identifying these storms are also developed and discussed. 1. Introduction parison of the intensity evolution of annular hurricanes in the context of intensity forecasting will be examined The satellite appearance of tropical cyclones can vary in this paper. -
Mariners Weather Log
Mariners Weather Log Vol. 42, No. 3 December 1998 The USS REGULUS, a U.S. Navy ship, aground in the harbor area of Hong Kong with rocks penetrating the hull as a result of Typhoon Rose (August 1971). This incident initiated the requirement for assistance in severe weather port decision-making as described in the article by Sam Brand, page 4. Photograph courtesy of the U.S. Navy. Mariners Weather Log Mariners Weather Log From the Editorial Supervisor The Mariners Weather Log is now available on the World Wide Web. Beginning with the August 1998 issue, you can find the Log at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/mwl/mwl.htm. You will need the Adobe Acrobat Reader (available from the web site) to view the magazine. U.S. Department of Commerce William M. Daley, Secretary We are privileged to have another article on the Automated Mutual- assistance Vessel Rescue (AMVER) program, with several dramatic National Oceanic and accounts of rescues at sea. In one notable incident, a fishing vessel, Atmospheric Administration the SEA LION, adrift without engine power in the North Pacific Dr. D. James Baker, Administrator during August 1998, began taking on water. In heavy seas, all ten crew members abandoned ship into a lifeboat. U.S. Coast Guard National Weather Service rescue coordinators located the AMVER vessel SOLAR WING a John J. Kelly, Jr., few miles away, and a boat-to-boat transfer was soon completed Assistant Administrator for Weather Services without loss of life. National Environmental Satellite, We encourage all mariners to participate in the AMVER program.