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Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves Over the Tropical Atlantic and African Regions and Their Convectively-coupled Kelvin waves over the tropical Atlantic and African regions and their influence on Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis by MICHAEL J. VENTRICE A Dissertation Submitted to the University at Albany, State University of New York in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy College of Arts & Sciences Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences 2012 Convectively-coupled Kelvin waves over the tropical Atlantic and African regions and their influence on Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis by Michael J. Ventrice COPYRIGHT 2012 Abstract High-amplitude convectively coupled atmospheric Kelvin waves (CCKWs) are explored over the tropical Atlantic during the boreal summer. Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis is found to be more frequent during the passage of the convectively active phase of the CCKW, and most frequent two days after its passage. CCKWs impact convection within the mean latitude of the inter-tropical convergence zone over the northern tropical Atlantic. In addition to convection, CCKWs also impact the large scale environment that favors Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis (i.e., deep vertical wind shear, moisture, and low-level relative vorticity). African easterly waves (AEWs) are known to be the main precursors for Atlantic tropical cyclones. Therefore, the relationship between CCKWs and AEW activity during boreal summer is explored. AEW activity is found to increase over the Guinea Highlands and Darfur Mountains during and after the passage of the convectively active phase of the CCKW. First, CCKWs increase the number of convective triggers for AEW genesis. Secondly, the associated zonal wind structure of the CCKW is found to affect the horizontal shear on the equatorward side of the African easterly jet (AEJ), such that the jet becomes more unstable during and after the passage of the convectively active phase of the CCKW. The more unstable AEJ is assumed to play a role with increased AEW growth. Through the increased number of AEWs propagating over the tropical Atlantic, as well as from the direct impact on convection and the large-scale environment over the tropical Atlantic, CCKWs are recommended to be used as a means for medium-range predictability of Atlantic tropical cyclones. ii In addition to modulating tropical cyclone activity over the tropical Atlantic, CCKWs might impact the intensification processes of tropical cyclones. A case study highlighting two August 2010 tropical cyclones (Danielle and Earl) is explored for potential CCKW-tropical cyclone interactions. While predicted to intensify by most model guidance, both Danielle and Earl struggled to do so. It is shown that Danielle and Earl interacted with the convectively suppressed phase of an eastward propagating CCKW during the time they were predicted to intensify. Composite analysis shows that during and after the passage of the convectively suppressed phase of the CCKW over the Atlantic, large-scale vertical wind shear increases as anomalous upper-level westerly winds are collocated with anomalous lower-level easterly winds. Large-scale subsidence associated with the convectively suppressed phase of the CCKW causes the atmosphere to dry. Further, when the upper-level westerly wind anomalies associated with the CCKW are located over the equatorial Atlantic, a tropical upper-tropospheric trough (TUTT) develops over the northern tropical Atlantic. TUTTs are upper-level disturbances known to negatively impact the intensity of tropical cyclones. CCKWs over the tropical Atlantic tend to occur during preferable locations of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). Results show that the MJO significantly modulates Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis using real-time multivariate MJO indices. Like CCKWs, AEW activity is found to vary coherently with MJO passages. Furthermore, the MJO also impacts the large-scale environment that favors for Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis. Therefore in addition to CCKWs, the state of the MJO should be used for Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis medium-range predictability. iii Acknowledgements This dissertation is dedicated to my parents, Raymond and Monica Ventrice. My parents have supported me in every aspect of life. I have never felt more loved, cared about, and cherished than what my parents have shown me. My father is the hardest working, most level-headed man that I know and has provided my family a means of living. My mother is a loving, protective woman that possesses all the qualities of an incredible mother. From broken bones, to surgeries, to sore throats, she was there for it all. I also want to acknowledge my brother Chris. Chris is incredibly courageous for his service as a New York City police officer. He is the glue that holds my family together, and was the underlying force that pushed me to strive for excellence. I will forever be in debt to my family, and acknowledge the life that they have provided me with. I also acknowledge the support of my friends. I have grown close to a group of friends during my studies at the University at Albany. Further, I acknowledge the support from my girlfriend, Mikayla. From all of the memories associated with this group of people, I will never forget my experience at Albany. Further, I want to thank NASA for the Grant NNX09AD08G and NNX10AU44G that made this work possible. iv Contents 1. Introduction …………………………………………………………………. 1-13 1.1. Literature review.………………………………………………………… 3-9 1.1.1. The dry-theoretical Kelvin wave………………...………………... 3 1.1.2. Observed convectively coupled Kelvin waves……………………. 4 1.1.3. Convectively coupled Kelvin waves and tropical cyclogenesis...... 7 1.2. Structure of the dissertation……………………………………………… 9 1.3. Figures …………………….……………………………………………... 10-13 2. The role of convectively coupled Kelvin waves on Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis highlighting the genesis of Tropical Storm Debby (2006)….. 14-51 2.1. Introduction…………………………………………………………….... 14-17 2.2. Datasets and methodology………………………………………………. 17-20 2.3. Case study: The genesis of Tropical Storm Debby (2006)……………... 20-35 2.3.1. The evolution of the African easterly wave associated with Tropical Storm Debby…….……………………………………..... 20 2.3.2. Diurnal cycle of convection over the Guinea Highlands region…... 21 2.3.3. The interaction between the convection generated by the Guinea Highlands region and the pre-Debby African easterly wave..…….. 23 2.3.4. The convective influence of convectively coupled Kelvin waves over the tropical Atlantic and Africa…………………………….... 25 2.3.5. The convectively coupled Kelvin wave associated with the genesis of Tropical Storm Debby………………………………… 28 2.3.6. The local state of the Madden Julian Oscillation………………… 32 2.4. The climatological relationship between strong convectively coupled atmospheric Kelvin waves and Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis…………. 35-36 2.5. Discussion and conclusions……………………………………………... 36-41 2.6. Figures…………………………………………………………………… 41-51 3. The impact of convectively coupled Kelvin waves on the large-scale environment over the tropical Atlantic and African regions…………….. 52-85 3.1. Introduction……………………………………………………………… 52-53 3.2. Datasets and methodology………………………………………………. 53-55 3.3. Composite analysis of convectively-coupled Kelvin waves over the Atlantic…………………………………………………………………... 55-70 3.3.1. The distribution of June-September Kelvin filtered OLR variance…………………………………………………………... 55 3.3.2. The vertical structure of the convectively coupled Kelvin wave… 55 3.3.3. The role of the convectively coupled Kelvin wave on the environmental conditions favorable for Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis………………………………………………………. 57 i. Vertical wind shear……………………………………….. 57 ii. Atmospheric moisture…………………………………….. 61 iii. Low-level (925 hPa) relative vorticity…………………..... 63 3.3.4. Where do strong Atlantic CCKWs originate from?……………..... 67 v 3.4. Discussion and conclusions…………………………………………….... 70-75 3.5. Figures…………………………………………………………………… 76-85 4. The role of convectively coupled Kelvin waves on African easterly wave activity……………………………………………………………………...... 86-117 4.1. Introduction……………………………………………………………… 86-90 4.2. Datasets and methodology………………………………………………. 90-91 4.3. Convectively coupled kelvin waves and African easterly wave activity... 91-107 4.3.1. Case study: The initiation of the pre-Alberto African easterly Wave in July 2000……………………………………………….... 92 4.3.2. The climatological role of convectively coupled Kelvin waves on the synoptic environment over Africa………………….……... 98 i. 925-700 hPa Vertical Wind Shear………………………... 98 ii. The impact of convectively coupled Kelvin waves on the horizontal structure of the African easterly jet…………… 101 iii. 2-10 day filtered Eddy Kinetic Energy……………………105 4.4. Discussions and conclusions…………………………………………….. 107-109 4.5. Figures………………………………………………………………….... 110-117 5. The role of the convectively-suppressed phase of a Kelvin wave on the intensity of two mature tropical cyclones………………………………….. 118-150 5.1. Introduction……………………………………………………………… 118-119 5.2. Dataset and methodology……………………………………………. …. 119-121 i. Kelvin waves in upper-level velocity potential…………... 120 5.3. The interaction between a Kelvin wave and two Atlantic tropical Cyclones…………………………………………………………………. 121-128 5.3.1. Hurricane Danielle overview……………………………………... 121 5.3.2. Hurricane Earl overview………………………………………….. 122 5.3.3. The role of the convectively suppressed phase of a strong convectively coupled Kelvin wave on Hurricane Danielle and Earl……………………………………………………………….. 123 5.3.4. The large-scale environment over the tropical Atlantic………….
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